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MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Cilt Volume 6 • Sayı Number 1 • Temmuz July 2014 Siyaset ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi Journal of Politics and International Relations RTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Cilt Volume 6 • Sayı Number 1 • Temmuz July 2014 • The Tangent of the Syrian Uprising Raymond Hinnebush • Russia and the Arab Spring: Adjusting to a New Political Vista Nikolay A. Kozhanov • Refugees and Political Stability in Lebanon Benjamin MacQueen & Kyile Baxter • Understanding Obama’s Policies towards a Nuclear Iran Özden Zeynep Oktav • Fragile Politics of the pro-Sisi Alliance in Egypt: Nasserist State Legacy within Neoliberal Context Canan Şahin • The Role of Labor Markets in the Arab Spring Harun Öztürkler BOOK REVIEWS • The Arap Spring: The End of Postcolonialism, Hamid Dabashi Kübra Oğuz • Soldiers, Spies and Statesmen: Egypt’s Road to Revolt, Hazem Kandil ORSAM İsmail Numan Telci ORSAM ORTADOĞU STRATEJİK ARAŞTIRMALAR MERKEZİ CENTER FOR MIDDLE EASTERN STRATEGIC STUDIES ORTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES Siyaset ve Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi Journal of Politics and International Relations Temmuz 2014, Cilt 6, Sayı 1 / July 2014, Volume 6, No 1 www.orsam.org.tr Hakemli Dergi / Refereed Journal Yılda iki kez yayımlanır / Published biannualy Sahibi / Owner: Şaban KARDAŞ, ORSAM adına / on behalf of ORSAM Editör / Editor-in-Chief: Özlem TÜR Yardımcı Editör/ Associate Editor: Ali Balcı Kitap Eleştirisi Editörü/ Book Review Editor: Gülriz Şen Yönetici Editör / Managing Editör: Tamer KOPARAN Sorumlu Yazı İşleri Müdürü / Managing Coordinator: Habib HÜRMÜZLÜ YAYIN KURULU / EDITORIAL BOARD Meliha Altunışık Middle East Technical University İlker Aytürk Bilkent Universitesi Recep Boztemur Middle East Technical University Katerina Dalacoura London School of Economics F. Gregory Gause Vermont University Fawaz Gerges London School of Economics Mahmoud Hamad Drake University/ Cairo University Raymond Hinnebusch St. Andrews University Tim Jacoby Manchester University Akif Kireçci Bilkent Universitesi Bahgat Korany American University of Cairo Peter Mandaville George Mason University Emma Murphy Durham University Harun Öztürkler Kırıkkale Universitesi Ortadoğu Etütleri şu indeksler tarafından taranmaktadır / indexed by; Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts (ASSIA), EBSCO Host, Index Islamicus, International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBBS), Worldwide Political Science Abstracts (WPSA). Makale Önerileri İçin / Submitting Your Articles: Özlem Tür / [email protected] Yayın İdare Merkezi / Head Office: ORSAM Ortadoğu Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi - Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies Süleyman Nazif Sokak No: 12-B Kat: 3-4 Çankaya-Ankara Türkiye/Turkey Tel: +90 (312) 430 26 09 Fax: +90 (312) 430 39 48 [email protected] Tasarım Uygulama / Graphic Design Orient Basım Yayın Kazım Özalp Mah. Rabat Sok. No:27/2 GOP, Çankaya/ANKARA Tel: 0 (312) 431 21 55 Baskı / Printing Center Salmat Basım Basım Tarihi / Printed: 15 Temmuz / July 2014 Ulusal Süreli Yayın Ortadoğu Etütleri’ndeki makalelerde yer alan fikirler yalnızca yazarlarını bağlamaktadır. The views expressed in Ortadogu Etütleri (Middle Eastern Studies) bind exclusively their authors. ORTADOĞU ETÜTLERİ / MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES TEMMUZ 2014, Cilt 6, Sayı 1 / JULY 2014, Volume 6, No 1 CONTENTS / İÇİNDEKİLER The Tangent of the Syrian Uprising ............................................................. 8 Suriye Ayaklanmasının Farklılığı Raymond Hinnebusch Russia and the Arab Spring: Adjusting to a New Political Vista ...................... 28 Rusya ve Arap Baharı: Yeni Siyasi Görünüme Uyum Sağlamak Nikolay A. Kozhanov Refugees and Political Stability in Lebanon................................................ 50 Lübnan’da Siyasi İstikrar ve Mülteciler Benjamin MacQueen & Kylie Baxter Understanding Obama’s Policies Towards a Nuclear Iran.............................. 70 Nükleer Bir İran’a Yönelik Obama’nın Politikalarını Anlamak Özden Zeynep Oktav Fragile Politics of the pro-Sisi Alliance in Egypt: Nasserist State Legacy within Neoliberal Context............................................................................ 92 Sisi Yanlısı İttifakın Kırılgan Siyaseti: Neoliberal Bağlamda Nasırcı Devlet Mirası Canan Şahin The Role of Labor Markets in the Arab Spring ............................................. 118 İşgücü Piyasalarının Arap Baharındaki Rolü Harun Öztürkler Book Reviews / Kitap İnceleme The Arab Spring: The End of Postcolonialism, Hamid Dabashi ................... 143 Kübra Oğuz Soldiers, Spies and Statesmen: Egypt’s Road to Revolt, Hazem Kandil ........... 147 İsmail Numan Telci From the Editor In its July 2014 issue, Ortadoğu Etütleri brings together six articles and two book reviews. This issue starts with Raymond Hinnebusch’s timely contribution on the Tan - gents of the Syrian Uprising. Looking at the agency as the key to understand the Uprising in Syria, Hinnebusch analyses four important aspects: mass protests failing to lead to democratic transition, the unxpected regime resilience, the de- scent into “security dilemma” and the external dynamics that feed into the “war economy”. These factors culminate in such a way, the author argues, that neither the opposition nor the state is successful, creating a stalemate and a prolonged civil war situation. The author finishes with a lesson learned from the Syrian case: that it is easy to destabilize fragmented states but once they are in turmoil, it is “much harder to put the pieces back together”. The second article of this issue, titled Russia and the Arab Spring: Adjusting to a New Political Vista, written by Nikolay Kozhanov, argues how before the Ar- ab Spring the Russian policy towards the Middle East was inconsistent with the developments in the region and was ill-defined. Kozhanov argues that the Russian policy-makers came face to face with economic and political losses as a result of the Arab Spring and only by 2013, they managed to come up with a new approach that would make Russia still an important player in the region. In the third article of the issue, Benjamin MacQueen and Kylie Baxter analyse the impact of the Syrian refugees on Lebanon. The article, titled Refugees and Political Stability in Lebanon, first deals with the issue of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. The authors argue that the Palestinians were kept at a bay from the Lebanese society, being confined in the camps they were mostly estranged to the Lebanese societal dynamics. As different from the Palestinians, the Syrian refugees have family and societal links with the Lebanese society and integrate much better into the system, have come over a longer period of time with high- er numbers and settled in a dispersed manner. Yet, the large numbers and the dynamics of the Syrian refugee flow into Lebanon, makes the issue not a polit- ical one as in the case of the Palestinian refugees but a national one which, the authors argue, require a national compromise among different fractions in the Lebanese political system. Özden Zeynep Oktav in her article titled Understanding Obama’s Policies Towards a Nuclear Iran analyses the US approach to the nuclear issue and questions why the US so far did not apply decisive, i.e. military, measures to tackle with this 5 July 2014 issue. Underlining that the answer lies in the systemic change, the declining US power and the transition from a unipolar system to a multipolar one, the author argues that the best that the US can do is to “lead from behind” in issues relating to the Middle East in general and in the nuclear issue in particular. Canan Şahin in her article titled Fragile Politics of the Pro-Sisi Alliance in Egypt: Nasserist Legacy within Neoliberal Context makes a detailed analysis of the post-Mubarak Egyptian politics and tackles with the Nasserist discourse used by the pro-Sisi coalition by emphasizing its outstanding elements like corporatism, militarism and secular nationalism. The author also identifies the difficulties ahead in Egyptian politics, especially the entrenched authoritarianism and its linkage to the neoliberal economy which mar the democratic practices in the country. Harun Öztürkler in the sixth article of this issue titled The Role of Labor Markets in the Arab Spring poses two crucial questions addressing the relationship be- tween the labor markets and the Arab Spring: what has been the impact of the labor market outcomes in the events leading to the Arab Spring and whether the conditions after the Arab Spring provide mechanisms to transform the labor markets and contribute to the development of the Middle East. The author answers these crucial questions with a detailed analysis. This issue contains two bookreviews. Kübra Oğuz reviewed Hamid Dabashi’s The Arab Spring: The End of Postcolonialism and Ismail Numan Telci reviewed Hazem Kandil’s Soldiers, Spies and Statesmen: Egypt’s Road to Revolt for this issue. Özlem Tür 6 Ortadoğu Etütleri SURİYE AYAKLANMASININ FARKLILIĞI ÖZ Bu makalede, Arap Bahar’ının başlaması ile birlikte Tunus ve Mısır’daki gibi ba- rışçıl protestolar yoluyla veya Libya’daki gibi iç savaşla ya da Yemen’deki gibi bu ikisinin arasında bir yolla yönetim değişikliğine giden ülkelerden farklı olarak iç çatışmaların, üç yılını doldurmasına ve çökmüş bir devlet yapısına rağmen ne rejim ne de lider değişimine uğrayan Suriye’nin kendine has farklılığı analiz edilecektir. Her ne kadar rejimin protestolar karşısındaki kırılganlığı işlemeyen devletler sistemi, belirli bir devlet inşa etme yöntemi ve küresel neo-liberailzm şemsiyesi altında post-popülizme kayan hareket gibi yapısal nedenlere dayan- sa da, bu çalışma Suriye’nin
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