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Université De Liège Faculté Des Sciences Appliquées Impact Of Université de Liège Faculté des Sciences Appliquées Département ArGEnCo Architecture, Géologie, Environnement et Constructions Secteur GEO³ Géotechnologies, Hydrogéologie, Prospection Géophysique Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Reserves by Pascal GODERNIAUX Thesis presented to the University of Liège in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of "Docteur en Sciences de l'Ingénieur" January 2010 This research was carried out by: Pascal GODERNIAUX Research Fellow ("Aspirant du FNRS") Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology Group ArGEnCo Department University of Liège (ULg) Chemin des Chevreuils, 1 Building B52 4000 Liège BELGIUM This research was financed by: Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique – FNRS (Funds for Scientific Research – FNRS) Rue d'Egmont, 5 1000 Bruxelles BELGIUM Board of examiners composed of: Prof. CHARLIER Robert, Université de Liège (Belgium) – President Prof. DASSARGUES Alain, Université de Liège (Belgium) – Supervisor Dr. BROUYERE Serge, Université de Liège (Belgium) – Co-supervisor Prof. PIROTTON Michel, Université de Liège (Belgium) Dr. BLENKINSOP Stephen, Newcastle University (United Kingdom) Prof. THERRIEN René, Université Laval (Canada) Prof. VANCLOOSTER Marnik, Université Catholique de Louvain (Belgium) Citation: Goderniaux P., 2010. Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Reserves. PhD Thesis. University of Liège, Faculty of Applied Sciences. Liège, Belgium. pp. 190. Summary SUMMARY Estimating the impacts of climate change on groundwater represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by water resources specialists. One difficulty is that simplifying the representation of the hydrological system, or using too simple climate change scenarios often leads to discrepancies in projections. Additionally, these projections are affected by uncertainties from various sources, and these uncertainties are not evaluated in previous studies. In this context, the objective of this study is to provide an improved methodology for the estimation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves, including the evaluation of uncertainties. This methodology is applied to the case of the Geer basin catchment (480 km²) in Belgium. A physically-based surface-subsurface flow model has been developed for the Geer basin with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere. The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the defined evaporative zone, improve the representation and calibration of interdependent processes like recharge, which is crucial in the context of climate change. Fully-integrated surface-subsurface flow models have recently gained attention, but have not been used in the context of climate change impact studies. This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using two different methods: the 'Quantile Mapping Biased Correction' technique and a 'Weather Generator' technique. Both of them are part of the most advanced downscaling techniques. They are able to apply corrections not only to the mean of climatic variables, but also across the statistical distributions of these variables. This is 5 Summary important as these distributions are expected to change in the future, with more violent rainfall events, separated by longer dry periods. The 'quantile mapping bias-correction' technique generate climate change time series representative of a stationary climate for the periods 2011- 2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The 'CRU' weather generator is used to generate a large number of equiprobable scenarios simulating full transient climate change between 2010 and 2085. All these scenarios are applied as input of the Geer basin model. The uncertainty is evaluated from different possible sources. Using a multi-model ensemble of RCMs and GCMs enables to evaluate the uncertainty linked to climatic models. The application of a large number of equiprobable climate change scenarios, generated with the 'weather generator', as input of the hydrological model allows assessing the uncertainty linked to the natural variability of the weather. Finally, the uncertainty linked to the calibration of the hydrological model is evaluated using the computer code 'UCODE_2005'. The climate change scenarios for the Geer basin model predict hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. Considering the results of this study, it is very likely that groundwater levels and surface flow rates in the Geer basin will decrease. This is of concern because it also means that groundwater quantities available for abstraction will also decrease. However, this study also shows that the uncertainty surrounding these projections is relatively large and that it remains difficult to state on the intensity of the decrease. Keywords: Groundwater, Climate change, Geer basin, Chalk, Integrated model, HydroGeoSphere, Uncertainty, Stochastic scenarios, Weather generator, UCODE_2005. 6 Acknowledgements ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis is the achievement of three years work, during which many people supported and helped me. I would like to acknowledge all of them gratefully. Special thanks to Alain Dassargues and Serge Brouyère who supervised this thesis. Thank you to them for all advices and discussions we had together during these years. Thank you for the time they spent to read this manuscript and give me some remarks and corrections. I also would like to acknowledge them for their important support when I applied for a position of 'research fellow' at FNRS, in 2006. I also remember the times we spent together in meetings and conferences. These times were both very instructive and pleasant. Finally, I would like to thank Alain Dassargues for proposing me to join his team and giving us the means to carry out research in a pleasant work environment. Thank you to Robert Charlier, Michel Pirotton, René Therrien, Stephen Blenkinsop and Marnik Vanclooster, who have accepted to join the jury of this thesis and to take time to read this report. I am very grateful to René Therrien, Daniela Blessent and Jean-Michel Lemieux for helping me to use 'HydroGeoSphere'. Thank you for their precious advices and recommendations. Thank you to René Therrien who allowed me to spend 3 months in his team at University Laval (Québec, Canada). Thanks to him, his family and Daniela Blessent for their warm welcome in Québec. Similarly, special thanks to Hayley Fowler, Stephen Blenkinsop and Aidan Burton for the work we have performed together to generate climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Thank you to them, as well as Isabella and Micol for the time spent in Newcastle. Thank you to Mary Hill for giving me the opportunity to teach a short course with her and for answering very quickly to my e-mails and questions about 'UCODE_2005'. 7 Acknowledgements I am grateful to FNRS, which funded this research. FNRS and the University of Liège also financed some presentations in international conferences, as well as scientific stays in University Laval (Québec, Canada) and Newcastle University (Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom). Thank you to the European Union FP6 Integrated Project AquaTerra (Project No. 505428), which allowed me to meet very interesting people and to have decisive discussions. Many thanks to the Administration of the Walloon Region, the 'Compagnie Intercommunale Liégeoise des Eaux' (CILE), the 'Société Wallonne des Eaux' (SWDE), the 'Vlaamse Maatschappij voor Watervoorziening (VMW), and the 'Afdeling Waterbouwkundig Laboratorium' of the Flemish Region for all data they have provided about the Geer Basin. Thank you to Christiane, Martine and Nadia, the secretariat staff, for their availability. Thank you to Annick Anceau, from the 'Earth Science Library' of the University of Liège, for helping me in bibliographic research. Thank you to the 'General IT department' (SEGI) of the University of Liège, for their precious advices about 'NIC3', the super computer for intensive calculation at University of Liège. Particular thanks to all my colleagues and friends from the Hydrogeolgy Group and other teams: Piotr, Philippe, Julie G., Ingrid, Samuel, Pierre J., Matthieu, Fabien, Julie C., Max, Pierre G., Nicolas, Cristina, Jordi, Laurent T., Jean -Michel, Tanguy, David, Jean, Frederic and many others. Special thanks to Piotr who shared my office during more than 3 years. Finally, I would like to address warm thanks to all my family. Particular thanks to you Céline for your support and comprehension during these years. Thank you for your patience when I was abroad. Thank you to have accompanied me in Quebec with the children. Thank you to be there with me. Pascal Goderniaux (January 2010) 8 Table of contents TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary__________________________________________________________________ 5 Acknowledgements __________________________________________________________ 7 Table of contents ___________________________________________________________ 9 List of figures _____________________________________________________________ 12 List of tables ______________________________________________________________ 15 Knowledge dissemination____________________________________________________ 16 1. Introduction __________________________________________________________
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