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The Royal Bank of Scotland Group

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ESG Relevance: Banks The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc Ratings Navigator Banks Ratings Navigator Financial Profile Operating Management & Support Rating Issuer Default Peer Ratings Company Profile Risk Appetite Earnings & Capitalisation & Funding & Viability Rating Navigator date: October 2019 Environment Strategy Asset Quality Floor Rating Profitability Leverage Liquidity Last rating action: 26 Sep 2019 aaa aaa AAA AAA RWN Sector Details: aa+ aa+ AA+ AA+ RWN Bank sector: Universal Commercial aa aa AA AA RWN Region: DM Europe aa- aa- AA- AA- RWN Country: United Kingdom a+ a+ A+ A+ RWN Country IDR: AA RWN a a A A RWN Last action: 26 Apr 19 RW Maintained a- a- A- A- RWN Country ceiling: AAA bbb+ bbb+ BBB+ BBB+ RWN Macro prudential indicator: 1 bbb bbb BBB BBB RWN Bank systemic indicator: a bbb- bbb- BBB- BBB- RWN bb+ bb+ BB+ BB+ RWN Bank Rating History bb bb BB BB RWN Viability Rating (VR) bb- bb- BB- BB- RWN 26 Sep 19 a Affirmed b+ b+ B+ B+ RWN 14 Dec 18 a Upgrade b b B B RWN 15 May 18 bbb+ Affirmed b- b- B- B- RWN Issuer Default Rating (IDR) ccc+ ccc+ CCC+ CCC+ RWN 26 Sep 19 A RWN RW Maintained ccc ccc CCC CCC RWN 01 Mar 19 A RWN RW On ccc- ccc- CCC- CCC- RWN 14 Dec 18 A Stable Upgrade cc cc CC CC RWN Support Rating Floor (SRF) c c C C RWN 26 Sep 19 NF Affirmed f f NF D or RD RWN 14 Dec 18 NF Affirmed Support Rating Floor Value Drivers & Sensitivities 15 May 18 NF Affirmed Typical D-SIB SRF for sovereign's rating level (assuming high propensity) A or A- Risk Profile Comparable to RBSG's ratings primarily reflect the group's strong capitalisation and funding and liquidity, and moderate, Bar Chart Legend: Actual country D-SIB SRF NF Peers' albeit improving, profitability and asset quality. Holding company double leverage is low (103% at end-2018). Vertical bars = VR range of Rating Factor Support Rating Floor: NF Bar Colors = Influence on final VR Support Factors Positive Neutral Negative RBSG's CET1 ratio of 16% at end-1H19 is well above the internal target (14%) and regulatory minimum n Higher Influence Sovereign ability to support system Strong Capitalisation (10.7%), providing flexibility to adapt to operating environment uncertainties. Capitalisation is supported by n Moderate Influence Size of banking system relative to economy improved profit generation and reduced risks from restructuring and litigation. Lower Influence Size of potential problem Operating profitability is supported by stable retail and commercial banking businesses, cost savings, and n Sound Operating Bar Arrows = Rating Factor Outlook Structure of banking system declining restructuring costs. Challenges remain in NatWest Markets, the Irish operations, and from revenue Profitability Positive Negative Liability structure of banking system pressure from low interest rates, sluggish demand and strong competition. Evolving Stable Sovereign financial flexibility (for rating level) RBSG's stage 3 loans ratio decreased to 2.3% at end-1H19, driven by actions at UBI DAC, which is likely to Asset Quality Converging Peer Ratings bars = Count of banks Sovereign propensity to support system continue. UK asset quality was stable, although pressures are emerging (in property lending and business With Peers 78 DM Europe Universal Commercial Resolution legislation with senior debt bail-in banking) and could be exacerbated by Brexit. 11 United Kingdom Universal Commercial Track record of banking sector support The group is predominantly funded by customer deposits, with moderate reliance on wholesale markets. We Stable Funding, Good Relevant Criteria & References Government statements of support expect prudent liquidity management ahead of Brexit but over time the LCR (154% at end-1H19) and liquidity Liquidity Bank Rating Criteria (Oct 2018) Sovereign propensity to support bank buffer are likely to decrease. Macro-Prudential Risk Monitor (Apr 2019) Systemic importance RBSG's IDR is on RWN due to uncertainty over the nature and timing of Brexit. A disruptive no-deal Brexit Short-Term Ratings Criteria (May 2019) Liability structure of bank IDR on Negative Watch would be likely to result in a Negative Outlook to reflect downside risks to the group's strategic execution, Ownership earnings, asset quality and capitalisation. Specifics of bank failure The VR is sensitive to a reversal of the positive trend in earnings generation or if capitalisation deteriorates VR Sensitive to Earnings, Analysts Policy banks and is no longer commensurate with its business model, targets and peers. RBSG’s VR is also sensitive to an Capital Claudia Nelson (+44 20 3530 1191) Policy role increase in double leverage above 120% Ioana Sima (+44 20 3530 1736) Funding guarantees and legal status National Westminster Bank and The Royal Bank of Scotland's IDRs are rated one notch above their VRs UK Ring-Fenced Banks Government ownership because their external senior creditors are protected by a sufficient buffer of qualifying junior debt, plus Rated 'A+' internal structurally subordinated senior debt in case of failure. Banks The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc Ratings Navigator Credit-Relevant ESG Derivation Overall ESG Scale The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc has 5 ESG potential rating drivers key driver 0 issues 5 The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc has exposure to compliance risks including fair lending practices, mis-selling, repossession/foreclosure practices, consumer data protection (data security) but this has very low impact on the rating. driver 0 issues 4 Governance is minimally relevant to the rating and is not currently a driver. potential driver 5 issues 3 4 issues 2 not a rating driver 5 issues 1 Environmental (E) General Issues E Score Sector-Specific Issues Reference E Scale How to Read This Page GHG Emissions & Air Quality 1 n.a. n.a. 5 ESG scores range from 1 to 5 based on a 15-level color gradation. Red (5) is most relevant and green (1) is least relevant. Energy Management 1 n.a. n.a. 4 The Environmental (E), Social (S) and Governance (G) tables break out the individual components of the scale. The left-hand box shows the aggregate E, Water & Wastewater S, or G score. General Issues are relevant across all markets with Sector- 1 n.a. n.a. 3 Management Specific Issues unique to a particular industry group. Scores are assigned to each sector-specific issue. These scores signify the credit-relevance of the Waste & Hazardous Materials 1 n.a. n.a. 2 sector-specific issues to the issuing entity's overall credit rating. The Management; Ecological Impacts Reference box highlights the factor(s) within which the corresponding ESG Impact of extreme weather events on assets and/or operations and Company Profile; Management & issues are captured in Fitch's credit analysis. Exposure to Environmental 2 corresponding risk appetite & management; catastrophe risk; credit Strategy; Risk Appetite; Asset 1 Impacts concentrations Quality The Credit-Relevant ESG Derivation table shows the overall ESG score. This score signifies the credit relevance of combined E, S and G issues to the Social (S) entity's credit rating. The three columns to the left of the overall ESG score summarize the issuing entity's sub-component ESG scores. The box on the General Issues S Score Sector-Specific Issues Reference S Scale far left identifies the [number of] general ESG issues that are drivers or Human Rights, Community Services for underbanked and underserved communities: SME and Company Profile; Management & potential drivers of the issuing entity's credit rating (corresponding with scores 2 5 Relations, Access & Affordability community development programs; financial literacy programs Strategy; Risk Appetite of 3, 4 or 5) and provides a brief explanation for the score. Customer Welfare - Fair Compliance risks including fair lending practices, mis-selling, Operating Environment; Company Messaging, Privacy & Data 3 repossession/foreclosure practices, consumer data protection (data Profile; Management & Strategy; 4 Classification of ESG issues has been developed from Fitch's sector and sub- Security security) Risk Appetite sector ratings criteria and the General Issues and the Sector-Specific Issues have been informed with SASB's Materiality Map. Impact of labor negotiations, including board/employee compensation Company Profile; Management & Labor Relations & Practices 2 3 and composition Strategy Sector references in the scale definitions below refer to Sector as displayed in the Sector Details box on page 1 of the navigator. Employee Wellbeing 1 n.a. n.a. 2 Shift in social or consumer preferences as a result of an institution's Exposure to Social Impacts 2 social positions, or social and/or political disapproval of core banking Company Profile; Financial Profile 1 practices Governance (G) CREDIT-RELEVANT ESG SCALE General Issues G Score Sector-Specific Issues Reference G Scale How relevant are E, S and G issues to the overall credit rating? Highly relevant, a key rating driver that has a significant impact on Management Strategy 3 Operational implementation of strategy Management & Strategy 5 5 the rating on an individual basis. Equivalent to "higher" relative importance within Navigator. Board independence and effectiveness; ownership concentration; Management & Strategy; Earnings & Relevant to rating, not a key rating driver but has an impact on the Governance Structure 3 protection of creditor/stakeholder rights; legal /compliance risks; Profitability; Capitalisation & 4 4 rating in combination with other factors. Equivalent to "moderate" business continuity; key person risk; related party transactions Leverage relative importance within Navigator. Minimally relevant to rating, either very low impact or actively Organizational structure; appropriateness relative to business model; Group Structure 3 Company Profile 3 3 managed in a way that results in no impact on the entity rating. opacity; intra-group dynamics; ownership Equivalent to "lower" relative importance within Navigator. Financial Transparency 3 Quality and frequency of financial reporting and auditing processes Management & Strategy 2 2 Irrelevant to the entity rating but relevant to the sector.
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