Risk Analysis for Phytophthora Ramorum, a Newly Recognised Pathogen Threat to Europe and the Cause of Sudden Oak Death in the USA (Acronym - RAPRA) Claire Sansford, A
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Risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum, a newly recognised pathogen threat to Europe and the cause of Sudden Oak Death in the USA (Acronym - RAPRA) Claire Sansford, A. J. Inman, R. Baker, Susan Frankel, J. de Gruyter, Claude Husson, Hella Kehlenbeck, G. Kessel, E. Moralejo, M. Steeghs, et al. To cite this version: Claire Sansford, A. J. Inman, R. Baker, Susan Frankel, J. de Gruyter, et al.. Risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum, a newly recognised pathogen threat to Europe and the cause of Sudden Oak Death in the USA (Acronym - RAPRA). [Contract] auto-saisine. 2009, 310 p. hal-01245979 HAL Id: hal-01245979 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01245979 Submitted on 17 Dec 2015 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. EU Sixth Framework Project Contract Number 502672 Risk Analysis of Phytophthora ramorum , a Newly Recognised Pathogen Threat to Europe and the Cause of Sudden Oak Death in the USA (Acronym – RAPRA) PRIORITY 8.1.B.1 POLICY-ORIENTED RESEARCH SPECIFIC TARGETTED RESEARCH PROJECT – RAPRA Deliverable Report D28 Report on the risk of entry, establishment, spread and socio-economic loss and environmental impact and the appropriate level of management for Phytophthora ramorum for the EU Date of Report: 26 th February 2009 (Previous versions: 21 st November 2008; 23 rd January 2009) CONTENTS Page no. LIST OF TABLES 3 LIST OF FIGURES 5 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS AND CONTRIBUTORS 6 SUMMARY: PEST RISK ANALYSIS FOR PHYTOPHTHORA RAMORUM 8 INTRODUCTION 32 PEST RISK ANALYSIS FOR PHYTOPHTHORA RAMORUM 37 Stage 1: Initiation 38 Stage 2: Pest risk assessment 46 Section A. Pest categorisation 46 Section B. Assessment of the probability of introduction 54 (entry and establishment) and spread and of potential economic consequences 1. Probability of introduction 54 Probability of entry 54 Probability of establishment 97 Probability of spread 138 Conclusion on the probability of introduction and spread 141 Conclusion regarding endangered areas 142 2. Assessment of potential economic consequences 143 Pest effects 143 Conclusion of the assessment of economic consequences 167 Degree of uncertainty for the pest risk assessment 170 Conclusion on the pest risk assessment 171 1 CONTENTS continued. Page no. Stage 3: Pest risk management 175 Conclusion of pest risk management 241 Degree of uncertainty for risk management options 244 DISSEMINATION AND EXPLOITATION OF RESULTS 245 POLICY RELATED BENEFITS 245 REFERENCES 246 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 269 APPENDICES APPENDIX I: RAPRA Workpackage 8 - Description of Work 270 APPENDIX II: Natural hosts of Phytophthora ramorum 272 APPENDIX III: Species susceptibilities to P. ramorum as determined by 279 experimental tests APPENDIX IV: Countries for which P. ramorum is either on their 309 regulated pest lists or mentioned in their legislation. 2 LIST OF TABLES Page no. Table 1. Characteristics of Phytophthora ramorum lineages. 47 Table 2. (a) Estimated prevalence on each commodity pathway at origin in relation to 62 geographical source. (b) Associated levels of uncertainty Table 3. (a) Estimated likelihood of the concentration of P. ramorum on the pathway at 65 origin being high in relation to each commodity pathway and geographical source accounting for cultivation practices (but excluding phytosanitary measures). (b) Associated levels of uncertainty. Table 4. Weight (100 kg) of grafted/ungrafted rhododendrons and azaleas imported into 69 the EU from six areas where P. ramorum occurs or may occur – 2003 to 2007 – Eurostat data. Table 5. Weight (100 kg) of ornamental nursery stock imported into the EU – 1999, 2002 69 and 2003 - AIPH, International Statistics Flowers and Plants. Table 6. Weight (100 kg) of azalea and rhododendron imported into the EU – 1999, 2002 70 and 2003 - AIPH, International Statistics flowers and plants. Table 7. Weight (100 kg) of plants for planting (unnamed genera) by Eurostat category 75 imported into the EU from six areas where P. ramorum occurs or may occur – 2003 to 2007. Table 8. Weight (100 kg) of foliage/cut branches of susceptible hosts (includes non-hosts) 76 (unnamed genera) by Eurostat category imported into the EU from six areas where P. ramorum occurs or may occur – 2003 to 2007. Table 9. Weight (100 kg) of seeds and fruits of susceptible hosts (named genera) by 77 Eurostat category imported into the EU from six areas where P. ramorum occurs or may occur – 2003 to 2007. Table 10. Weight (100 kg) of wood waste ‘other’ by Eurostat category imported into the 78 EU from six areas where P. ramorum occurs or may occur – 2003 to 2007. Table 11. Weight (100 kg) of wood by Eurostat category (named genera only) imported 78 into the EU from three of the six areas where P. ramorum occurs or may occur – 2003 to 2007. Table 12. (a) Estimated relative volume of each commodity imported into the EU in 79 relation to geographic source – 2002 to 2007 – based upon total weights (100 kg) from Eurostat Comext database; (b) Associated levels of uncertainty. Table 13. (a) Estimated likelihood of P. ramorum surviving or remaining undetected 89 during existing phytosanitary measures for each commodity type and potential origin (which assumes the worst-case scenario and that plants come from an area where the pathogen is known to occur); (b) Levels of uncertainty. 3 LIST OF TABLES continued. Page no. Table 14. (a) Estimated overall probability of entry for P. ramorum per pathway in the 96 absence of phytosanitary controls; (b) Levels of uncertainty. Table 15. Range of values for predictor variables and assigned ranks in the Meentemeyer et 114 al. (2004) Phytophthora ramorum spread risk model, ranked 0–5 from least to most suitable for spread of the pathogen. Table 16. CLIMEX parameter values used by Venette & Cohen (2006) to map potential 119 Phytophthora ramorum distribution in the USA and by the EU RAPRA Project to map potential P. ramorum distribution in Europe. Table 17. Summary of outdoor findings in Europe reported in RAPRA reports and EU MS 156 Surveys. Table 18. Pre-existing non-specific measures in the EU Plant Health Directive 181 (2000/29/EC) (Anon., 2000) that relate to known host plants (in bold) or potential hosts of Phytophthora ramorum originating from outside the Community. Table 19. Pre-existing non-specific measures in the EU Plant Health Directive 193 (29/2000/EC) (Anon., 2000) that relate to non-host plants for planting originating from outside the Community that might be contaminated with Phytophthora ramorum . (See also Table 18). Table 20. Pre-existing measures in the EU Plant Health Directive (2000/29/EC) (Anon., 199 2000) that relate to soil and growing media as a commodity. Table 21. Pre-existing non-specific measures in the EU Plant Health Directive 208 (2000/29/EC) (Anon., 2000) that relate to foliage and cut branches of host plants (emboldened) of Phytophthora ramorum originating from outside the Community. Table 22. Pre-existing measures in the EU Plant Health Directive (2000/29/EC) (Anon., 221 2000) that relate to susceptible isolated bark as a commodity. Table 23. Pre-existing measures in the EU Plant Health Directive (2000/29/EC) that relate 229 to susceptible wood. Table 24. Potential measures selected for managing the risks posed by the pathways of 239 entry for P. ramorum into the EU for consideration by the policy makers (some measures may need to be combined) 4 LIST OF FIGURES Page no. Figure 1. The PRA area: The European Union Member States – a subset of the EPPO 39 (European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation) region. Figure 2. Calibrated broadleaved forest map as a percentage of land area for Europe, 102 produced by combining geographically referenced Earth observation data and forest statistics. Source: Päivinen et al. (2001) and Schuck et al. (2002). Figure 3. The area of European heathland around 1900. 103 Figure 4: Comparison between rainfall in one area of Portugal with one area of California, 109 showing the longer period of rainfall at the Portuguese location. Figure 5: CLIMEX Match Index comparison of the 10’ latitude/longitude resolution grid 110 cell in Oregon where P. ramorum is damaging with climatic conditions in the rest of Europe. Figure 6: CLIMEX Match Index comparison of the 0.5’ latitude/longitude resolution grid 111 cell in a location in California where P. ramorum is damaging (an area just north of the San Francisco bay area, south of Santa Rosa) with climatic conditions in the rest of Europe. Figure 7. CLIMEX Match Index comparison of the 10’ latitude/longitude resolution grid 112 cell in Cornwall where P. ramorum is damaging, especially on rhododendron and beech, with climatic conditions in the rest of Europe. Figure 8. CLIMEX Match Index comparison of the 10’ latitude/longitude resolution grid 113 cell in Eastern Netherlands near Nijmegen where P. ramorum is damaging on rhododendron with climatic conditions in the rest of Europe. Figure 9. Phytophthora ramorum risk ranking model based on Meentemeyer et al. (2004) 115 for Europe using the New et al. (2000) 10’ latitude/longitude resolution global climatology for December–May 1961–1990. Figure 10. CLIMEX suitability based on the ecoclimatic index using parameters developed 117 by Venette & Cohen (2006) for: (a) Europe, using 1961-1990 climate interpolated to a 10’ latitude/longitude grid and using colours and categories that highlight the highest levels of risk; (b) Europe, but with colours and categories matching those used in their original risk map for the USA; (c) USA, as published in Venette & Cohen (2006).