2.4.5 Probable Maximum Surge and Seiche Flooding
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RS-002, “PROCESSING APPLICATIONS FOR EARLY SITE PERMITS” ATTACHMENT 2 2.4.5 PROBABLE MAXIMUM SURGE AND SEICHE FLOODING REVIEW RESPONSIBILITIES Primary - Mechanical and Civil Engineering Branch (EMEB) Secondary - None I. AREAS OF REVIEW In this section of the site safety assessment for an early site permit application, the hydrometeorological design basis is developed to determine the extent of flood protection required for safety-related systems for a nuclear power plant or plants of specified type that might be constructed on the proposed site. The areas of review include the characteristics of the assumed probable maximum hurricane or other probable maximum wind storms and the techniques, methodologies, and parameters used in the determination of the design surge and/or seiche. Antecedent water levels, storm tracks, methods of analysis, coincident wind- generated wave action and wave runup on safety-related structures, potential for wave oscillation at the natural periodicity, and the resultant design bases for surge and seiche flooding are also reviewed. II. ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA The EMEB acceptance criteria for this section of this review standard are based on meeting the requirements of 10 CFR Parts 52 and 100 as they relate to evaluating the hydrologic characteristics of the site. Specific criteria necessary to meet the relevant hydrologic requirements of 10 CFR Parts 52 and 100 are as follows: Section 52.17(a) of 10 CFR Part 52 and Section 100.20(c) of 10 CFR Part 100 require that the site’s physical characteristics (including seismology, meteorology, geology, and hydrology) be taken into account when determining its acceptability for a nuclear power reactor. To satisfy the hydrologic requirements of 10 CFR Parts 52 and 100, the applicant’s safety assessment must contain a description of the surface and subsurface hydrologic characteristics of the region and an analysis of the potential for flooding due to surges or seiches. This description must be sufficient to assess the acceptability of the site and the potential for a surge or seiche to influence the design of structures, systems, and components important to safety for a nuclear power plant or plants of specified type that might be constructed on the proposed site. Meeting this requirement provides a level of assurance that structures, systems, and components important to safety for a nuclear power plant or plants of specified type that might be constructed on the proposed site could be designed to withstand the most severe flooding likely to occur as a result of storm surges or seiches. 2.4.5-1 Note: Though not required at the early site permit stage, the applicant for a combined license (COL) will need to demonstrate compliance with General Design Criterion 2 as it relates to structures, systems, and components important to safety being designed to withstand hurricanes and seiches. If it has been determined that surge and seiche flooding estimates are necessary to identify flood design bases, the applicant’s analysis will be considered complete and acceptable if the following areas are addressed and can be independently and comparably evaluated from the applicant’s submission. 1. All reasonable combinations of probable maximum hurricane, moving squall line, or other cyclonic wind storm parameters are investigated, and the most critical combination is selected for use in estimating a water level. 2. Models used in the evaluation are verified or have been previously approved by the staff. 3. Detailed descriptions of bottom profiles are provided (or are readily obtainable) to enable an independent staff estimate of surge levels. 4. Detailed descriptions of shoreline protection and safety-related facilities are provided to enable an independent staff estimate of wind-generated waves, runup, and potential erosion and sedimentation. 5. Ambient water levels, including tides and sea level anomalies, are estimated using NOAA and Corps of Engineers publications as described below. 6. Combinations of surge levels and waves that may be critical to design of a nuclear power plant or plants of specified type that might be constructed on the proposed site are considered, and adequate information is supplied to allow a determination that no adverse combinations have been omitted. 7. If Regulatory Guide 1.59, Position 2, is elected by the applicant, the design basis for flood protection of all safety-related facilities identified in Regulatory Guide 1.29 must be shown to be adequate in terms of time required for implementation of any emergency procedures. The applicant must also demonstrate that all potential flood situations that could negate the time and capability to initiate flood emergency procedures are provided for in the less severe design basis selected. This section of the safety assessment may also state with justification that surge and seiche flooding estimates are not necessary to identify the flood design basis (e.g., the site is not near a large body of water). Hydrometeorological estimates and criteria for development of probable maximum hurricanes for east and Gulf Coast sites, squall lines for the Great Lakes, and severe cyclonic wind storms for all lake sites by the Corps of Engineers, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the staff are used for evaluating the conservatism of the applicant’s estimates of severe windstorm conditions, as discussed in Regulatory Guide 1.59. The Corps of Engineers and NOAA criteria require variation of the basic meteorological parameters within given limits to 2.4.5-2 determine the most severe combination that could result. The applicant’s hydrometeorological analysis should be based on the most critical combination of these parameters. Data from publications of NOAA, the Corps of Engineers, and other sources (such as tide tables, tide records, and historical lake level records) are used to substantiate antecedent water levels. These antecedent water levels must be as high as the "10% exceedence" monthly spring high tide, plus a sea level anomaly based on the maximum difference between recorded and predicted average water levels for durations of 2 weeks or longer for coastal locations or the 100-yr recurrence interval high water for the Great Lakes. In a similar manner, the storm track, wind fields, effective fetch lengths, direction of approach, timing, and frictional surface and bottom effects are evaluated by independent staff analysis to ensure that the most critical values have been selected. Models used to estimate surge hydrographs that have not previously been reviewed and approved by the staff are verified by reproducing historical events, with any discrepancies in the model being on the conservative (i.e., high) side. Criteria and methods of the Corps of Engineers as generally summarized in Reference 32 are used as a standard to evaluate the applicant’s estimate of coincident wind-generated wave action and runup. Criteria and methods of the Corps of Engineers and other standard techniques are used to evaluate the potential for oscillation of waves at natural periodicity. Criteria and methods of the Corps of Engineers (Ref. 32) are used to evaluate the adequacy of protection from flooding, including the static and dynamic effects of broken, breaking, and nonbreaking waves. Regulatory Guide 1.102 provides further guidance on flood protection. Regulatory Guide 1.125 provides guidance for using physical models in assessing flood protection. III. REVIEW PROCEDURES Requirements and procedures governing issuance of early site permits for approval of proposed sites for nuclear power facilities are specified in 10 CFR Part 52. Information required for such a permit includes a description of the site’s hydrometeorological characteristics. For this type of review, the procedures below should be followed. The staff will evaluate the applicant’s analysis, including all of the assumptions, techniques, and models used. If satisfied with their technical soundness and applicability to the problem, the staff’s evaluation will be focused on the conservatism of parameters used by the applicant. If not satisfied with the applicant’s techniques, the staff will perform a simplified analysis of the controlling surge and seiche flooding level (coincident with wind-generated wave activity) and the resulting effects (static and dynamic) to the safety-related facilities of a nuclear power plant or plants of specified type that might be constructed on the proposed site using simplified calculational procedures or models with demonstrably conservative coefficients and assumptions. If the applicant’s estimates of critical water level are no more than 5% less conservative than the staff’s estimates,1 staff concurrence will be stated. If the applicant’s estimates are more than 5% less conservative, the analysis is repeated using more realistic techniques. The staff will develop a position based on the analysis; resolve, if possible, 1 Based on the difference between normal water levels and the flood event. 2.4.5-3 differences between the applicant’s and staff’s surge and seiche flooding design basis; and write the safety evaluation report (SER) input accordingly. The specific review procedures are described below. In general, the conservatism of the applicant’s estimates of flood potential from surges and seiches is judged against the criteria indicated in subsection II above and as discussed in Regulatory Guide 1.59. If the site is not near a large body of water, the staff findings may be prepared a priori. Methods of the Corps of Engineers and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (HUR 7-97 and amendments, Ref. 40) are used to develop the critical probable maximum hurricane (PMH) parameters for the site. The Corps of Engineers model SURGE (or other verified models) may be used to estimate the maximum surge stillwater elevations at coastal sites. Coincident wind-generated waves and runup are estimated from publications by the Corps of Engineers (Ref. 32). Reports of NOAA and the Corps of Engineers are used to estimate probable maximum wind fields over the Great Lakes.