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The Profitability of Precision Agriculture in the Bothaville District

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The Profitability of Precision Agriculture in the Bothaville District THE PROFITABILITY OF PRECISION AGRICULTURE IN THE BOTHAVILLE DISTRICT Ntsikane Maine Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree Philosophae Doctor in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences Department of Agricultural Economics (Centre for Agricultural Management) University of the Free State Promotors: Dr W.T. Nell (University of the Free State) Prof. J. Lowenberg-DeBoer (Purdue University) Co-promotor: Dr Z. Gudeta Bloemfontein November 2006 Acknowledgements During the course of undertaking the research and writing up this thesis, I received support, guidance, assistance and prayers from a number of people. I would like to thank all those who helped me during my entire study and made a success out of it. Firstly, I extend my sincere thanks to my internal promoter, Dr Wimpie Nell; for his guidance, advice, and devotion towards this study. A special word of appreciation to my external promoter, Prof. Jess Lowenberg-DeBoer of Purdue University, for all his technical inputs and prompt attention to my enquiries during the course of my study. His understanding and patience meant a lot. I attribute special acknowledgements to my co-promoter, Dr Zerihun Gudeta, for all his support and valuable inputs. My appreciation is extended to Mr Thabo van Zyl, owner of Rietgat farm, for allowing me to conduct this research on his farm, for the information he provided, and for always being enthusiastic to my calls. Thank you very much to Dr Charles Barker, a GIS specialist at the University of the Free State, for his technical advice on GIS and help in aggregating data. I express my gratitude to Mr Cobus Burgers and Ms Adri Meistri of Omnia, as well as Dr Herman Booysen of NetGroup for digitising maps and helping in collating data. Thank you for your time and the information you provided. Special thanks to Mr W.E. Oosthuysen of Suidwes Agriculture, Dr P. LeRoux and Dr G. Ceronio of the Department of Plant and Soil Sciences for all the technical information on precision agriculture and soil data used in this thesis. Technical assistance of Senwes in grid soil sampling of the research field is acknowledged. i The inputs of the individuals on the ListServe of GeoDaTM statistical analysis are highly appreciated, particularly the help of Julia Koschinsky and Terry Griffin. I thank the University of the Free State and the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences for giving me the opportunity to study at this institution. A word of thanks to the staff of the Department of Agricultural Economics and the Centre for Agricultural Management, particularly Mrs Dora Du Plessis for editing and attending to the technical aspects of this thesis. I am also indebted to numerous friends and family for their moral support, prayers and encouragement. Thank you all. I thank my late parents, to whom I dedicate this piece of work. To my husband, Teboho, thank you for the emotional support and putting up with my odd working hours. The financial assistance of New Holland South Africa and the Andrew Mellon Foundation is hereby acknowledged. Opinions expressed and conclusions arrived at, are those of the author and are not necessarily attributed to either organisation. Finally, I acknowledge and thank my heavenly Father for giving me strength and courage, and making everything possible. I thank you, Lord. ii Summary Variable-rate application technology based on soil potential and other field attributes is gradually replacing the standard rates of fertilizer application for individual cropping systems. In South Africa, differential application of inputs in cash crop production is mainly concerned with fertilizer and lime, and this indicates the importance of these inputs. This study evaluates the maize yield response to variable-rate (VR) application of nitrogen (N), and estimates the profitability of VR application of N relative to single-rate (SR) application under South African conditions. Data was collected from an experimental field of 104 ha on a farm in the Bothaville district. A strip-plot design consisting of 180 strips was used for this on-farm research experiment. This design involved treatments that ran in the same direction across the field as planting and harvesting. The objectives were to determine the maize crop response functions under different N rates, to estimate optimal N rates for different management zones in different years, and to assess profit estimates using ordinary least squares (OLS) and spatial error (SER) models. The methodology involves modelling maize yield response functions for N. A Baseline regression model that analyses variable-rate technology as a package was used, while three sensitivity tests were used to determine the consistency of the estimates. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant variation in maize yield response to the applied N on the basis of the application method used. Profit analysis resulting from the application strategies indicates that, in general, VR results in higher farming profits than SR. The analysis indicates that yield obtained from VR strategy can compensate additional costs incurred with the investment in VR technology. This finding is consistent in all the models. It has been established that yield response to fertilizer depends on soil conditions such as the effective soil depth, which has a positive effect on yield. Yield response also differs among management zones. iii Differences were observed between the results obtained from the OLS models and the results obtained with the SER models, and this has an impact on decision-making. The importance of taking spatial effects into account came to the fore, as inaccurate results can be obtained with methodologies that ignore the spatial dependencies in the analysis of yield monitor data. Key terms: Precision agriculture, precision farming, variable-rate application, single rate application, profitability, spatial error model, nitrogen, South Africa. iv Opsoming Veranderlike-toedieningspeiltegnologie, gebaseer op grondpotensiaal en ander landeienskappe, is besig om die standaardpeile van kunsmistoediening vir individuele gewasstelsels geleidelik te vervang. Differensiële toediening van kontantgewasproduksie- insette fokus in hoofsaak op kunsmis en kalk. Hierdie studie evalueer die mielieopbrengs- reaksie op veranderlike toedieningspeile (VT) van stikstof (N), en beraam die winsgewendheid van VT van N in vergelyking met enkelpeiltoedienings (ET) onder Suid-Afrikaanse toestande. Die data is afkomstig van 'n eksperimentele land van 104 ha op 'n plaas in die Bothaville- distrik. 'n Strookperseelontwerp, bestaande uit 180 stroke, wat in dieselfde rigting as die plant en strooprigting uitgelê is, is gebruik. Die doelstellings was die bepaling van mieliegewas- responsfunksies aan die hand van verskillende N-peile, die beraming van optimale N-peile vir verskillende bestuursones in verskillende jare, en die analisering van boerdery winsskattings met die gebruik van gewone kleinste kwadrate-modelle (GKK-modelle) en ruimtelike fout- modelle (RF-modelle). Die metodologie behels die modellering van mielieopbrengs- responsfunksies vir N. 'n Basislynregressiemodel, wat VT-tegnologie as 'n pakket ontleed, is gebruik, terwyl drie sensitiwiteitstoetse gebruik is om die konsekwentheid van die beramings te bepaal. Die resultate van hierdie studie dui aan dat daar beduidende variasie bestaan ten opsigte van mielieopbrengsreaksie op die toedieningspeile van N, afhangende van die toedieningsmetode (veranderlik of enkel) wat gebruik is. Die winsontleding wat voortspruit uit die toedieningstrategieë toon aan dat VT oor die algemeen hoër winste as ET genereer. Die analise toon aan dat die opbrengs van 'n VT-strategie kan vergoed vir die bykomende koste wat met diebelegging VT tegnologie gepaard gaan. Hierdie bevinding is konsekwent in alle modelle. Daar is verder vasgestel dat die opbrengsrespons op kunsmis afhang van v grondtoestande, soos die effektiewe gronddiepte, wat 'n positiewe uitwerking op opbrengs het. Verskillende bestuursones het ook verskillende opbrengsreaksies getoon. Verskille wat waargeneem is tussen die resultate wat met die GKK-modelle behaal is en die resultate wat met die RF-modelle verkry is, het 'n impak op besluitneming gehad. Die noodsaaklikheid om ruimtelike effekte in ag te neem, is beklemtoon aangesien onakkurate resultate behaal kan word met metodologieë wat die ruimtelike afhanklikhede in die ontleding van opbrengsmonitordata ignoreer. Sleutelterme: Presisielandbou, presisieboerdery, veranderlike-toedieningspeiltegnologie, enkelpeiltoedienings, winsgewendheid, ruimtefout-model, stikstof, Suid-Afrika. vi Table of Contents Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT ................................................................................................. 2 1.3 OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................................... 4 1.3.1 Sub-objectives ......................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 Hypotheses .............................................................................................................. 5 1.4 METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................
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