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National Risk Profile for Denmark National Risk Profile for Denmark Danish Emergency Management Agency | National Risk Profile for Denmark National Risk Profile for Denmark Nationalt Risikobillede 1 National Risk Profile for Denmark | Danish Emergency Management Agency Published by: The Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) Datavej 16 DK-3460 Birkerød, Denmark Tel.: 45 90 60 00 Fax: 45 90 60 60 E-mail: [email protected] www.brs.dk ISBN 978-87-91590-88-7 Date of publication: April 2018 Translated from the original Danish language version “Nationalt Risikobillede” (ISBN 978-87-91590-82-5) Cover illustration: Eske Kath, Blow Up, 2007, acrylic on canvas, 195×258 cm. © Eske Kath and Galerie Mikael Andersen, Copenhagen. 2 Danish Emergency Management Agency | National Risk Profile for Denmark TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION Objectives 5 Central Concepts 5 Process 6 Structure 7 PART ONE: INCIDENT TYPES 1. Hurricanes and Strong Storms 14 2. Coastal Flooding 22 3. Extreme Rainfall 32 4. Highly Virulent Diseases 42 5. Animal Diseases 52 6. Water and Foodborne Diseases 62 7. Nuclear Accidents 72 8. Accidents Involving Chemical Agents 80 9. Maritime Accidents 90 10. Transport Accidents 100 11. Cyber Incidents 110 12. Terrorist Acts 120 13. Space Weather 130 PART TWO: TRENDS I. Security Policy Tensions 142 II. Antibiotic Resistance 146 III. Irregular Migration 150 IV. Increased Activity in the Arctic Region 154 3 Preface National Risk Profile for Denmark | Danish Emergency Management Agency I am delighted to present the second edition of the National Risk Profile. A lot has happened since the Preface Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) published the National Risk Profile for the first time well over three years ago. The product sparked a great deal of interest and became widely used. In Denmark, a wide range of authorities and The time is now ripe for an updated version, and organisations help to ensure the safe, smooth in this edition we have concentrated on providing running of society. It is not without reason that we readers with an even deeper understanding of the can enjoy a good general level of health, a stable incident types and the challenges they present in supply network and a reliable infrastructure. Even terms of overall emergency management. in our society, however, major accidents and disasters do occur, and we need to have effective This publication draws attention to 13 incident emergency management in place to deal with types. Common for all is that an exceptionally them. comprehensive and cross-cutting effort is required in order for society to effectively manage While some of the incidents that befall us are the situation. The National Risk Profile thus well-known, there are others about which we know provides a common frame of reference for acute less. Only rarely are we completely surprised by risks of broad societal relevance, and can form an incident that falls outside of what we had part of the foundation for emergency imagined possible. When preparing to deal with management planning within the national crisis extraordinary incidents, it makes sense to start management system as well as in and many other with the risks that we know are present. We must contexts. In some instances it can even serve as never allow ourselves to be thrown off balance by the starting point for a further planning process these. In preparing for the known, we also gain regarding more specific circumstances. The risk skills and capacities that could also prove useful to profile cannot, however, stand alone. Rather, it us the next time something new and unexpected needs to be challenged and considered in the occurs. context in which the readers find themselves. At the same time, it is important to remember that risks change over time. In this edition, we have chosen to expand the risk profile by adding four trends that may affect emergency management in the slightly longer term. In this way, the National Risk Profile draws up the risk landscape in Denmark both now and in the coming years. First and foremost, it should be seen as an invitation to plan, collaborate, and share knowledge when it comes to our society’s emergency management capacities. This way, the National Risk Profile will help promote a solid emergency management culture in Denmark. I hope you will both enjoy and make good use of this document. Henning Thiesen Director General, Danish Emergency Management Agency (DEMA) 4 Danish Emergency Management Agency | National Risk Profile for Denmark Introduction In addition to the objectives of the publication listed above, the NRP also meets the requirement INTRODUCTION of the European Civil Protection Mechanism (EU Council Decision No. 1313/2013/EU of 17 December 2013), stating that member states must develop risk assessments at national or Objectives appropriate subnational level’. DEMA continuously seeks to keep abreast of, highlight and disseminate knowledge about the risks that may lead to major accidents and Central Concepts This edition of the NRP consists of two main parts. disasters in Denmark. This work involves The first part contains 13 chapters, each of which gathering information that can tell us about the describes one incident type. The order in which characteristics and causal connections of these are presented does not imply any form of individual risks, the current overall state of the risk ranking. The incident types differ in essence and it picture, and how this risk picture may develop in is not, therefore, possible to list them in any the future. meaningful order of priority. It will, however, be possible to compare them against each other Some risks are relatively easy to identify and based on a range of parameters presented in each monitor as they regularly manifest themselves as chapter. incidents or are generally the subject of great attention. In other cases, a certain amount of The other main part contains four trends, which in imagination is required to detect new risks, or the longer term could prove to have an impact on new ways in which familiar risks may develop. The the risk profile for Denmark. These trends are not National Risk Profile (NRP) is a periodic summary ranked in any order, nor is it implied that the list of the continuous work being conducted to map is an exhaustive one. The trends serve to identify and analyse the risks that society is facing. some of the sources of change to the risk profile over the coming years. The NRP does not, however, represent the entire spectrum of risks faced by Danish society or the What is Risk? citizens of Denmark. Rather, it concentrates on The term ‘risk’ is used in many contexts, often with those risks considered by DEMA to merit the most various intended meanings. In colloquial attention from society’s emergency management language, it is sometimes used synonymously actors. with either ‘likelihood’ or ‘consequence’. In other connections – for example, when talking about The publication has several objectives. First and economy, markets or gambling – risk is combined foremost, it helps create awareness of as a product of likelihood multiplied by acknowledged risks and our knowledge about consequence: (R = L x C). This formula reduces them. As any assessment of risk is dependent on the two elements of risk to a single, alluringly clear context, the NRP also seeks to give readers the value. However, a precondition for combining the chance to reflect on risks, both those discussed two elements in a meaningful way is that there and others, as seen from their own point of view. must be a certain degree of comparability across The NRP may also inspire larger organisations, the range of risks being depicted. This applies to whether in the private or the public sector, to comparability in terms of the information on which draw up a risk profile of their own. It can also be we base the likelihood of something happening used as a reference point for work done by such (e.g. statistical data over time, evidence, or causal organisations on crisis management, security, and understanding), as well as to the comparability/ preparedness. For example, this could be in con- proportionality of the consequences to which a junction with the drafting of emergency manage- given incident is expected to lead. This is because ment plans or as inspiration for exercise planning. our tolerance towards different types of negative impact varies significantly. 5 Introduction National Risk Profile for Denmark | Danish Emergency Management Agency Multiplying likelihood by consequence also in approaching risk through incident types, rather assumes that we take an equal interest in both than specific scenarios. the likelihood and the consequence of a given incident. This is typically not the case when we The world that we face, however, is ‘muddled and are dealing with major accidents and disasters. An mixed up’ and does not always lend itself to attempt – despite this – to combine likelihood and categorisation. It is important to remember that in- consequence into an overall, comparable risk cidents carrying traits from several of the incident value for each incident type would therefore, at types presented may also well occur. Evidently, best, be a simplification. At worst, it would be incidents combining negative aspects of sever- grossly misleading. al incident types will challenge society’s overall capacity for emergency management to an even Nevertheless, ‘risk’ is indeed made up of likeli- greater extent. hood and consequences. In the light of the above, however, these two elements will be addressed The incident types are described with a 0–5 year separately throughout this publication. Each time frame in mind. chapter will aim to provide a qualitative description of our knowledge and our knowledge What is a Trend? base as far as both likelihood and consequence Further to the incident types, the NRP will also is concerned.
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