St. Bernard Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Meetings

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

St. Bernard Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Meetings ST. BERNARD PARISH HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN i ST. BERNARD PARISH HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN UPDATE Prepared for: St. Bernard Parish Prepared by: Stephenson Disaster Management Institute Mr. Brant Mitchell, CEM Mrs. Lauren Morgan, MEPP Mr. Chris Rippetoe, CFM Dr. Joseph B. Harris, PhD* Louisiana State University – Louisiana Emerging Technology Center Baton Rouge, LA 70803 *Western Carolina University, Emergency and Disaster Management Program (Dept. of Criminology and Criminal Justice) ST. BERNARD PARISH HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN ii ***This Page Left Intentionally Blank*** ST. BERNARD PARISH HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This 2020 St. Bernard Parish Hazard Mitigation Plan Update was coordinated by the St. Bernard Parish Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Steering Committee, in collaboration with community stakeholders and the general public. Special thanks are directed to all of those who assisted in contributing their expertise and feedback on this document, especially the St. Bernard Parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. These combined efforts have made this project possible. The St. Bernard Parish Steering Committee consists of the following individuals, who are credited in the creation of this document: John Rahaim St. Bernard OHSEP Roxanne Adams St. Bernard Parish Government Ronnie Alonzo St. Bernard Parish Government Collin Arnold NOHSEP Henry Ballard Christian Fellowship Family Worship Center Jaylynn Bergeron-Turner St. Bernard Parish Government Scott Boyle LA DOTD Elizabeth Dauterive St. Bernard Chamber of Commerce Chad Ellinwood PBF Energy Matt Falati St. Bernard Parish Government Pamela Ferbos Entergy David Fernandez St. Bernard Parish School Board Jake Groby St. Bernard Parish Government Water & Sewer Patrick Harvey Plaquemines Parish OHSEP Drew Heaphy St. Bernard Port, Harbor, and Terminal District Kim Keene St. Bernard Parish Hospital Steve Krynski PBF Energy John Lane St. Bernard Parish Government Richard Lewis St. Bernard Parish Government Theresa LoGiudice LDEQ Clarence Marthet ASR Domino Sugar Refinery William McCartney St. Bernard Parish Government William McGoey St. Bernard Parish Government Guy McInnis St. Bernard Parish Government Jimmy Pohlmann St. Bernard Sheriff's Office Thomas Stone St. Bernard Fire Department Tommy Stone Valero Jason Stopa St. Bernard Parish Office of Community Development Leslie Sullivan Valero Matt Timothy Atmos Energy Tina Tinney Nunez Community College Katie Tommaseo St. Bernard Parish Government JJ Vickers St. Bernard Sheriff's Office Steve Volante Louisiana State Police Doris Voitier St. Bernard Parish School Board ST. BERNARD PARISH HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN iv The 2020 St. Bernard Parish Hazard Mitigation Plan Update was written by the Stephenson Disaster Management Institute, Louisiana State University. Further comments should be directed to the St. Bernard Parish Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness: 8201 W Judge Perez Drive, Chalmette, LA 70043. ST. BERNARD PARISH HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN v Contents 1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 1-1 Geography and Population .................................................................................................................... 1-2 Geography .......................................................................................................................................... 1-2 Population .......................................................................................................................................... 1-3 Hazard Mitigation ................................................................................................................................... 1-4 General Strategy ..................................................................................................................................... 1-5 2020 Plan Update ................................................................................................................................... 1-6 2. Hazard Identification and Parish-Wide Risk Assessment ................................................................... 2-1 Prevalent Hazards to the Community .................................................................................................... 2-1 Previous Occurrences ............................................................................................................................ 2-2 Probability of Future Hazard Events ...................................................................................................... 2-3 Inventory of Assets for the Entire Parish ............................................................................................... 2-4 Essential Facilities of the Parish ............................................................................................................. 2-5 Future Development Trends ................................................................................................................ 2-10 Future Hazard Impacts ......................................................................................................................... 2-11 Land Use ............................................................................................................................................... 2-11 Assessing Vulnerability Overview ........................................................................................................ 2-12 Quantitative Methodology .............................................................................................................. 2-13 Qualitative Methodology ................................................................................................................. 2-13 Priority Risk Index and Hazard Risk .................................................................................................. 2-13 Hazard Identification ............................................................................................................................ 2-15 Coastal Hazards/Subsidence ............................................................................................................ 2-15 Flooding ............................................................................................................................................ 2-22 Sinkholes .......................................................................................................................................... 2-33 Thunderstorms ................................................................................................................................. 2-36 Tornadoes ........................................................................................................................................ 2-46 Tropical Cyclones ............................................................................................................................. 2-50 3. Capability Assessment ....................................................................................................................... 3-1 Policies, Plans and Programs ................................................................................................................. 3-1 Building Codes, Permitting, Land Use Planning and Ordinances ....................................................... 3-2 Administration, Technical, and Financial ............................................................................................... 3-2 Education and Outreach ........................................................................................................................ 3-3 Flood Insurance and Community Rating System ................................................................................... 3-4 ST. BERNARD PARISH HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN vi NFIP Worksheets .................................................................................................................................... 3-7 4. Mitigation Strategy ............................................................................................................................ 4-1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 4-1 Goals ...................................................................................................................................................... 4-3 2020 Mitigation Actions and Update on Previous Plan Actions ............................................................ 4-4 St. Bernard Parish Completed Mitigation Actions ............................................................................. 4-5 St. Bernard Parish Previous and New Mitigation Actions .................................................................. 4-6 Action Prioritization ............................................................................................................................... 4-8 Appendix A: Planning Process ................................................................................................................... A-1 Purpose ................................................................................................................................................. A-1 The St. Bernard Parish Hazard Mitigation Plan Update ........................................................................ A-1 Planning ...............................................................................................................................................
Recommended publications
  • FEMA Flood Boundary
    MAY 4, 2021 COUSHATTA TRIBE OF LOUISIANA TRIBAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN UPDATE PUBLIC REVIEW DRAFT MAY 2021 Prepared by BEVERLY O'DEA BRIDGEVIEW CONSULTING, LLC 915 N. Laurel Lane Tacoma, WA 98406 (253) 380-5736 Coushatta Tribe of Louisiana 2021 Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Prepared for Coushatta Tribe of Louisiana Coushatta Tribal Fire Department P.O. Box 818 Elton, LA 70532 Prepared by Bridgeview Consulting, LLC Beverly O’Dea 915 N. Laurel Lane Tacoma, WA 98406 (253) 380-5736 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ......................................................................................................... xiii Plan Update ................................................................................................................................................. xiv Initial Response to the DMA for the Coushatta Tribe ........................................................................... xv The 2021 Coushatta Tribe of Louisiana Update—What has changed? ................................................. xv Plan Development Methodology ............................................................................................................... xvii Chapter 1. Introduction to Hazzard Mitigation Planning ............................................... 1-1 1.1 Authority .............................................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Variations Aperiodic Extreme Sea Level in Cuba Under the Influence
    Extreme non-regular sea level variations in Cuba under the influence of intense tropical cyclones. Item Type Journal Contribution Authors Hernández González, M. Citation Serie Oceanológica, (8). p. 13-24 Publisher Instituto de Oceanología Download date 02/10/2021 16:50:34 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/1834/4053 Serie Oceanológica. No. 8, 2011 ISSN 2072-800x Extreme non-regular sea level variations in Cuba under the influence of intense tropical cyclones. Variaciones aperiódicas extremas del nivel del mar en Cuba bajo la influencia de intensos ciclones tropicales. Marcelino Hernández González* *Institute of Oceanology. Ave. 1ra. No.18406 entre 184 y 186. Flores, Playa, Havana, Cuba. [email protected] ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was sponsored by the scientific – technical service "Real Time Measurement and Transmission of Information. Development of Operational Oceanographic Products", developed at the Institute of Oceanology. The author wishes to thank Mrs. Martha M. Rivero Fernandez, from the Marine Information Service of the Institute of Oceanology, for her support in the translation of this article. Abstract This paper aimed at analyzing non-regular sea level variations of meteorological origin under the influence of six major tropical cyclones that affected Cuba, from sea level hourly height series in twelve coastal localities. As a result, it was obtained a characterization of the magnitude and timing of extreme sea level variations under the influence of intense tropical cyclones. Resumen El presente trabajo tuvo como objetivo analizar las variaciones aperiódicas del nivel del mar de origen meteorológico bajo la influencia de seis de los principales ciclones tropicales que han afectado a Cuba, a partir de series de alturas horarias del nivel del mar de doce localidades costeras.
    [Show full text]
  • 4. the TROPICS—HJ Diamond and CJ Schreck, Eds
    4. THE TROPICS—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck, Eds. Pacific, South Indian, and Australian basins were a. Overview—H. J. Diamond and C. J. Schreck all particularly quiet, each having about half their The Tropics in 2017 were dominated by neutral median ACE. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condi- Three tropical cyclones (TCs) reached the Saffir– tions during most of the year, with the onset of Simpson scale category 5 intensity level—two in the La Niña conditions occurring during boreal autumn. North Atlantic and one in the western North Pacific Although the year began ENSO-neutral, it initially basins. This number was less than half of the eight featured cooler-than-average sea surface tempera- category 5 storms recorded in 2015 (Diamond and tures (SSTs) in the central and east-central equatorial Schreck 2016), and was one fewer than the four re- Pacific, along with lingering La Niña impacts in the corded in 2016 (Diamond and Schreck 2017). atmospheric circulation. These conditions followed The editors of this chapter would like to insert two the abrupt end of a weak and short-lived La Niña personal notes recognizing the passing of two giants during 2016, which lasted from the July–September in the field of tropical meteorology. season until late December. Charles J. Neumann passed away on 14 November Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies warmed con- 2017, at the age of 92. Upon graduation from MIT siderably during the first several months of 2017 in 1946, Charlie volunteered as a weather officer in and by late boreal spring and early summer, the the Navy’s first airborne typhoon reconnaissance anomalies were just shy of reaching El Niño thresh- unit in the Pacific.
    [Show full text]
  • Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats
    8786 ReportScience Title and the Storms: the USGS Response to the Hurricanes of 2005 Chapter Five: Landscape5 Changes The hurricanes of 2005 greatly changed the landscape of the Gulf Coast. The following articles document the initial damage assessment from coastal Alabama to Texas; the change of 217 mi2 of coastal Louisiana to water after Katrina and Rita; estuarine damage to barrier islands of the central Gulf Coast, especially Dauphin Island, Ala., and the Chandeleur Islands, La.; erosion of beaches of western Louisiana after Rita; and the damages and loss of floodplain forest of the Pearl River Basin. Aerial Rapid Assessment of Hurricane Damages to Northern Gulf Coastal Habitats By Thomas C. Michot, Christopher J. Wells, and Paul C. Chadwick Hurricane Katrina made landfall in southeast Louisiana on August 29, 2005, and Hurricane Rita made landfall in southwest Louisiana on September 24, 2005. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flew aerial surveys to assess damages to natural resources and to lands owned and managed by the U.S. Department of the Interior and other agencies. Flights were made on eight dates from August Introduction 27 through October 4, including one pre-Katrina, three post-Katrina, The USGS National Wetlands and four post-Rita surveys. The Research Center (NWRC) has a geographic area surveyed history of conducting aerial rapid- extended from Galveston, response surveys to assess Tex., to Gulf Shores, hurricane damages along the Ala., and from the Gulf coastal areas of the Gulf of of Mexico shoreline Mexico and Caribbean inland 5–75 mi Sea. Posthurricane (8–121 km).
    [Show full text]
  • Desoto's Seafood Kitchen
    beachin’August 2019 LIFE ON THE ALABAMA GULF COAST LET YOUR STYLE ROAR With Disney’s The Lion King Collection by Pandora © 2019 Pandora Jewelry, LLC • All rights reserved • The Lion King © 2019 Disney DIAMOND JEWELERS GULF SHORES 251-967-4141 DIAMONDJEWELERS.NET 10583120 2 Beachin’ ● August 2019 August 2019 ● Beachin’ 3 4 Beachin’ ● August 2019 August 2019 ● Beachin’ 5 6 Beachin’ ● August 2019 August 2019 ● Beachin’ 7 beachin’ A specialty publication of Gulf Coast Media about the cover contents publisher Parks Rogers Blue skies and the bright summer sun greets Too Close for Comfort [email protected] visitors to Alabama’s Gulf Coast. Kick back and enjoy the beautiful view. Hurricane Barry August 2019 2019 August August beachin’2019 August LIFE ON THE ALABAMA GULF COAST managing editor Photo by Jack Swindle Allison Marlow [email protected] 16 design and layout Paige Marmolejo [email protected] Sands of Time advertising Charter boat fishing begins LouAnn Love [email protected] 251.943.2151 Frank Kustura [email protected] 24 251.923.8129 feature Bethany Randall [email protected] Beach Happenings 251.266.9982 story August events and activities Beachin’ magazine is published Bushwackers at the beach monthly by Gulf Coast Media, 901 N. McKenzie Street, Foley, AL 36535 251.943.2151 Try one or try them all, just don’t Distributed free by The Alabama Gulf Coast Convention & Visitor’s Bureau and at other miss this “must do” summer drink 28 locations throughout Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Fort Morgan. All rights reserved. Reproduction without permission is prohibited. 10 Nature Gulf Coast Media accepts no responsibility in the guarantee of goods Green Sea Turtles visit Alabama and services advertised herein.
    [Show full text]
  • Orleans Parish Hazard Mitigation Plan
    Hazard Mitigation Plan City of New Orleans Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness January 7, 2021 1300 Perdido Street, Suite 9W03 (504) 658-8740 ready.nola.gov/hazard-mitigation DRAFT – January 7, 2020 1 Table of Contents Section 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 New Orleans Community Profile ...................................................................................................... 11 1.1.1 Location ..................................................................................................................................... 11 1.1.2 History of Orleans Parish ........................................................................................................... 12 1.1.3 Climate ....................................................................................................................................... 14 1.1.4 Transportation ............................................................................................................................ 15 1.1.5 Community Assets ..................................................................................................................... 17 1.1.6 Land Use and Zoning ................................................................................................................. 18 1.1.7 Population .................................................................................................................................. 24 1.1.8
    [Show full text]
  • Mobile Weather & Marine Almanac 2018
    2018 Mobile Weather and Marine Almanac 2017: A Year of Devastating Hurricanes Prepared by Assisted by Dr. Bill Williams Pete McCarty Coastal Weather Coastal Weather Research Center Research Center www.mobileweatheralmanac.com Christmas Town & Village Collectibles RobertMooreChristmasTown.com • 251-661-3608 4213 Halls Mill Road Mobile, Alabama Mon.-Sat. 10-5 Closed Sunday 2018 Mobile Weather and Marine Almanac© 28th Edition Dr. Bill Williams Pete McCarty TABLE OF CONTENTS Astronomical Events for 2018 ....................................................................... 2 Astronomical and Meteorological Calendar for 2018 .................................. 3 2017 Mobile Area Weather Highlights ........................................................ 15 2017 National Weather Highlights .............................................................. 16 2017 Hurricane Season ............................................................................... 17 2018 Hurricane Tracking Chart ................................................................... 18 2017 Hurricane Season in Review .............................................................. 20 Harvey and Irma - Structurally Different, but Major Impacts .................... 22 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 1990-2017 .............................................. 24 World Weather Extremes ............................................................................ 26 Mobile Weather Extremes ........................................................................... 28 Alabama Deep Sea
    [Show full text]
  • Widespread Flooding Continued Over Mississippi and Louisiana in the Wake of Hurricane Isaac…
    NWS FORM E-5 U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) (11-88) NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION (PRES. by NWS Instruction 10-924) NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE, LA REPORT FOR: MONTHLY REPORT OF HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS MONTH YEAR SEPTEMBER 2012 SIGNATURE TO: Hydrometeorological Information Center, W/OH2 NOAA / National Weather Service KENNETH GRAHAM 1325 East West Highway, Room 7230 METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE Silver Spring, MD 20910-3283 DATE OCTOBER 15, 2012 When no flooding occurs, include miscellaneous river conditions, such as significant rises, record low stages, ice conditions, snow cover, droughts, and hydrologic products issued (NWS Instruction 10-924) An X inside this box indicates that no flooding occurred within this hydrologic service area. …Widespread Flooding Continued over Mississippi and Louisiana in the Wake of Hurricane Isaac… Hurricane Isaac formed on August 28, 2012 and made landfall between Buras and Port Fourchon in Louisiana. The hurricane progressed to the Arkansas border on August 30th, although feeder bands persisted over Mississippi and Louisiana through the first days of September. By September 5th, a remnant of Hurricane Isaac moved south from the Ohio River Valley back to the Gulf of Mexico. That remnant remained quasi-stationary along the Gulf Coast until September 8th, when a cold front steered the storm northeast, away from Louisiana and Mississippi. The bulk of the heavy rains occurred during August in Hurricane Isaac. Rain totals over 10.0 inches were reported at several locations; Livingston, LA measured 17.87 inches by September 2nd. Areal rainfall totals for August 27th through September 2nd, were over 7.0 inches for southeast and east-central Louisiana.
    [Show full text]
  • ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
    MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record.
    [Show full text]
  • Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
    FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book.
    [Show full text]
  • The Crisis Informatics of Online Hurricane Risk Communication
    The Crisis Informatics of Online Hurricane Risk Communication by Melissa J. Bica B.S., Santa Clara University, 2014 M.S., University of Colorado Boulder, 2017 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Computer Science 2019 This thesis entitled: The Crisis Informatics of Online Hurricane Risk Communication written by Melissa J. Bica has been approved for the Department of Computer Science Prof. Leysia Palen (chair) Prof. Kenneth M. Anderson Dr. Julie L. Demuth Prof. Brian C. Keegan Prof. Clayton Lewis Date The final copy of this thesis has been examined by the signatories, and we find that both the content and the form meet acceptable presentation standards of scholarly work in the above mentioned discipline. IRB protocol #19-0077, 19-0109 iii Bica, Melissa J. (Ph.D., Computer Science) The Crisis Informatics of Online Hurricane Risk Communication Thesis directed by Prof. Leysia Palen Social media are increasingly used by both the public and emergency management in disasters. In disasters arising from weather-related hazards such as hurricanes, social media are especially used for communicating about risk in the pre-disaster period when the nature of the hazard is uncertain. This dissertation explores the sociotechnical aspects of hurricane risk communication, especially information diffusion, interpretation, and reaction, as it occurs on social media between members of the public and authoritative weather experts. I first investigate the kinds of hurricane risk information that were shared by authoritative sources on social media during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season and how different kinds of infor- mation diffuse temporally.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Isaac Information from NHC Advisory 33B, 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday August 29, 2012 Hurricane Isaac Continues to Lash New Orleans
    HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Isaac Information from NHC Advisory 33B, 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday August 29, 2012 Hurricane Isaac continues to lash New Orleans. Isaac is expected to move over Louisiana today and tomorrow and over southern Arkansas early Friday. Weakening is forecast as Isaac moves over land over the next 48 hours, but dangerous storm surge and flood threats from heavy rains are likely to continue through today and tonight. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 80 mph Position Relative to 40 miles SSW of New Orleans Speed: (cat. 1 hurricane) Land: Now southwest of New Est. Time & Region: Orleans Louisiana Min Central Pressure: 970 mb Coordinates: 29.5 N, 90.5 W T.S. Force Winds: 175 miles Est. Max Sustained Wind 80 mph Bearing/Speed: NW or 310 degrees at 6 mph Hurricane Force Winds: 60 miles Speed: (cat. 1 hurricane) Forecast Summary Within 24 hours, there is a 12% chance Isaac will remain at hurricane strength (74+ mph winds), a 74% chance Isaac will weaken to a tropical storm (39-73 mph winds), and a 14% chance Isaac will further weaken to tropical depression strength or dissipate (winds below 39 mph). The windfield map – based on the CLP5 forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at category 1 hurricane strength (74-95 mph winds). The CLP5 – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the current “best performing” model for Hurricane Isaac by Kinetic Analysis Corp. The combinations of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters.
    [Show full text]