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An Assessment and Forecast of ADP in the Federal Government NATIONAL BUREAU of STANDARDS

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An Assessment and Forecast of ADP in the Federal Government NATIONAL BUREAU of STANDARDS ''oi%l.^inarS^ Computer Science National Bureau and Technology of Standards NBS NBS Special Publication 500-79 T~JT I PUBLICATIONS An Assessment and Forecast of ADP in the Federal Government NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS The National Bureau of Standards' was established by an act of Congress on March 3, 1901. The Bureau's overall goal is to strengthen and advance the Nation's science and technology and facilitate their effective application for public benefit. To this end, the Bureau conducts research and provides: (1) a basis for the Nation's physical measurement system, (2) scientific and technological services for industry and government, (3) a technical basis for equity in trade, and (4) technical services to promote public safety. The Bureau's technical work is per- formed by the National Measuiement Laboratory, the National Engineering Laboratory, and the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology. THE NATIONAL MEASUREMENT LABORATORY provides the national system of physical and chemical and materials measurement; coordinates the system with measurement systems of other nations and furnishes essential services leading to accurate and uniform physical and chemical measurement throughout the Nation's scientific community, industry, and commerce; conducts materials research leading to improved methods of measurement, standards, and data on the properties of materials needed by industry, commerce, educational institutions, and Government; provides advisory and research services to other Government agencies; develops, produces, and distributes Standard Reference Materials; and provides calibration services. The Laboratory consists of the following centers: Absolute Physical Quantities^ — Radiation Research — Thermodynamics and Molecular Science — Analytical Chemistry — Materials Science. THE NATIONAL ENGINEERING LABORATORY provides technology and technical ser- vices to the public and private sectors to address national needs and to solve national problems; conducts research in engineering and applied science in support of these efforts; builds and maintains competence in the necessary disciplines required to carry out this research and technical service; develops engineering data and measurement capabilities; provides engineering measurement traceability services; develops test methods and proposes engineering standards and code changes; develops and proposes new engineering practices; and develops and improves mechanisms to transfer results of its research to the ultimate user. The Laboratory consists of the following centers: Applied Mathematics — Electronics and Electrical Engineering^ — Mechanical Engineering and Process Technology^ — Building Technology — Fire Research — Consumer Product Technology — Field Methods. THE INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY conducts research and provides scientific and technical services to aid Federal agencies in the selection, acquisition, application, and use of computer technology to improve effectiveness and economy in Government operations in accordance with Public Law 89-306 (40 U.S.C. 759), relevant Executive Orders, and other directives; carries out this mission by managing the Federal Information Processing Standards Program, developing Federal ADP standards guidelines, and managing Federal participation in ADP voluntary standardization activities; provides scientific and technological advisory services and assistance to Federal agencies; and provides the technical foundation for computer-related policies of the Federal Government. The Institute consists of the following centers: Programming Science and Technology — Computer Systems Engineering. 'Headquarters and Laboratories at Gaithersburg, MD, unless otherwise noted; mailing address Washington, DC 20234. 'Some divisions within the center are located at Boulder, CO 80303. WATIONAL BUHEAU OF STANDAEUa Computer Science OCT 2 1981 and Technology ftot 0.0. - 0,0(00 u^n NBS Special Publication 500-79 Assessment and ly^ Forecast of ADP in the Federal Governnnent Martha Mulford Gray Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology National Bureau of Standards Washington, DC 20234 based on the findings of the IDC Consulting Group International Data Corporation Waltham, MAl 021,18 U.S; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary National Bureau of Standards Ernest Ambler, Director Issued August 1 981 Reports on Computer Science and Technology The National Bureau of Standards has a special responsibility within the Federal Government for computer science and technology activities. The programs of the NBS Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology are designed to provide ADP standards, guidelines, and technical advisory services to improve the effectiveness of computer utilization in the Federal sector, and to perform appropriate research and development efforts as foundation for such activities and programs. This publication series will report these NBS efforts to the Federal computer community as well as to interested specialists in the academic and private sectors. Those wishing to receive notices of publications in this series should complete and return the form at the end of this publication. National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 500-79 Nat. Bur. Stand. (U.S.), Spec. Publ. 500-79, 151 pages (Aug. 1981) CODEN: XNBSAV Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 81-600094 U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE WASHINGTON: 1981 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Price $5.50 (Add 25 percent for other than U.S. mailing) FOREWORD The Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology (ICST) was established in the National Bureau of Standards in 1966 pursuant to the authorities delegated to the Secretary of Commerce by Public Law 89-306, enacted by the Congress on October 30, 1965. This Act has as its objective to "provide for the economic and efficient purchase, lease, maintenance, operation, and utilization of automatic data processing equipment by Federal departments and agencies." Under authority delegated to the National Bureau of Standards by the Secretary of Commerce, the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology provides scientific and technical services to the central management agencies, i.e., the Office of Management and Budget and the General Services Administration, to support the formulation of Federal ADP policies. The Institute develops and recommends Federal Information Processing Standards and participates in the development of voluntary ADP standards. ICST contracted with the International Data Corporation (IDC) in FY 80 to acquire some of the data necessary to support impact assessments and cost/benefit analyses of ADP standards. These impact assessments and cost/benefit analyses are critical to the planning and prioritizing of Federal Information Processing Standards. This report presents a summary of IDC's findings and further analysis of these findings by ICST personnel. It presents not only the current status of Federal ADP but also projected ADP trends in the Federal Government for 1979 to 1985. The historical and future data relating to the Federal Government were provided by International Data Corporation and do not necessarily represent the views of the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology nor the National Bureau of Standards. The author acknowledges the professional expertise of Miss Nancy Scull, Mr. Kenneth McPherson and Mr. Eric Killorin. The author also wishes to acknowledge the extensive assistance provided by ICST staff member Mr. E. Edward Bortner III in the formulation and preparation of the graphs in this report. The graphs were produced on the Univac 1108 computer utilizing the DISSPLA graphics package. The author also wishes to thank ICST staff members Mrs. Jackie Jones and Mrs. Mary Ellen Crane for assisting in the manuscript preparation. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Executive Summary vii List of Figures xiii Introduction xix Definitions xxi Section One - Federal Government installed base 1-1 estimates and forecasts of CPtf's, peripheral equipment, storage media and word processors Section Two - Programming Languages , Applications 2-1 and Operating Systems Section Three - Software Spending Analysis 3-1 Section Four - System Distribution by Mode of 4-1 Operation Section Five - Data Base Management Systems 5-1 Section Six - Contract 6-1 Section Seven - Software Development 7-1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Section One The number of computers in the Federal installed base increased from 6000 in 1974 to 10,800 in 1979 and is predicted to grow to over 29,000 by 1985. Federal general purpose computers are expected to grow at only 1 percent per year in number of units through 1985 while minicomputers should show rapid growth, 21 percent per year in number of units, through 1985. In 1974 minicomputers represented about 48 percent of the Federal computers by number. They represented 70 percent by 1979 and are expected to be about 80 percent of the installed computers by 1985. Over the same period the dollar value of minicomputers grew from $56.3 million in 1974 (2 percent of the inventory by dollar value) to $191.5 million in 1979 (4 percent of the inventory by dollar value) and is expected to reach $8,665.7 million by 1985 (10 percent of the inventory by dollar value) . The small general purpose computers, size classes 2, 3 and 4, have decreased both in number and dollar value from 1974 to 1979 and are expected to continue decreasing, while the larger general purpose computers, size classes 5, 6 and 7, have increased both
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