A Survival Analysis of Pretrial Detention and the Timing of Guilty
CJPXXX10.1177/0887403419838020Criminal Justice Policy ReviewPetersen 838020research-article2019 Article Criminal Justice Policy Review 2020, Vol. 31(7) 1015 –1035 Do Detainees Plead Guilty © The Author(s) 2019 Article reuse guidelines: Faster? A Survival Analysis sagepub.com/journals-permissions https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403419838020DOI: 10.1177/0887403419838020 of Pretrial Detention and the journals.sagepub.com/home/cjp Timing of Guilty Pleas Nick Petersen1 Abstract Although numerous quantitative studies have linked pretrial detention to increased conviction rates, the precise mechanisms linking these decisions remain unclear. Qualitative studies shed light on these processes, revealing that many detainees plead guilty quickly to escape the pains of detention, including poor confinement conditions, strained work or family relations, and “dead time.” Moreover, these pressures to plead are often exacerbated by uncertain detention length, time-sensitive “exploding” plea deals, and temporal discounting. Utilizing data on felony defendants from large urban counties between 1990 and 2004, we assess whether pretrial detention accelerates the pace of guilty pleas. Survival analyses indicate that pretrial detainees plead guilty 2.86 times faster than released defendants do, suggesting that pretrial detention is a powerful prosecutorial tool. Moreover, local resources affect case processing time in ways that are consistent with the courtroom workgroup perspective. Implications for public policies and future research are discussed. Keywords guilty plea, pretrial detention, time-to-plea, bail, case processing time While considerable attention has been devoted to the effects of pretrial detention on convictions, surprisingly few studies have sought to identify the mechanisms underlying these patterns. The limited research in this area suggests that pretrial 1University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA Corresponding Author: Nick Petersen, Department of Sociology, University of Miami, Merrick Building, Room 122G, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA.
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