Meteorological Society of New Zealand (Inc.)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 1

ISSN 0111-1736

Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.)

NEWSLETTER 130 SEPTEMBER 2012

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 2 Meteorological Society Of New Zealand (Inc.) NEWSLETTER 130 SEPTEMBER 2012 PO Box 6523, Marion Square, Wellington 6141, New Zealand Please forward contributions to Bob McDavitt, [email protected]

CONTENTS Page President’s foreword 3 Coming conferences 4-5 Notices 6-7 Winter 2012 (NIWA + Ben Tichborne) 8-18 Winter 2012– pick of the clips 19-54 Notice of AGM 56

Your Committee—until AGM President Andrew Tait [email protected] Immediate Past President Kim Dirks [email protected] Auckland VP Jennifer Salmond [email protected] Wellington VP James Renwick [email protected] Christchurch VP Omid Alizadeh Choobari [email protected] Dunedin VP Daniel Kingston kinda79p@geography.otago.ac.nz Secretary Sam Dean [email protected] Treasurer Alan Porteous [email protected] Circulation Manager Sylvia Nichol [email protected] Journal Editor Brian Giles [email protected] Newsletter Editor Bob McDavitt [email protected] Wed Editor Peter Knudsen Hydro.Soc Liaison: Charles Pearson [email protected] General Committee Mike Revell [email protected] Katrina Richards [email protected] Gareth Renowden [email protected] Duncan Ackerley Duncan@[email protected]

Views and endorsements expressed in this newsletter are those of the contributors and advertisers, and not necessarily those of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 3 From our President Time really does ly, doesn't it? Two years ago I had my arm twisted to take on the role of president of the Meteorological Society of New Zealand - and now, two years later, it's almost time to surrender the reigns to the next arm-twisted candidate. So this is a nice opportunity to share some of my thoughts on the last two years in the Met Soc. Firstly, I couldn't have asked for a better committee. There is a wealth of knowledge and experience (and yes, even some youth) on the Met Soc committee which really does make for an excellent team environment. This has translated into two very well-run annual meetings (in Wellington, jointly with AMOS, and in Nelson) and the promise of yet another excellent annual event in Wellington in Novem- ber this year. Secondly, we have had some excellent feedback on critical matters for the Socie- ty from the membership - so cheers to you all for this help and guidance. So what have been the big issues for the Society over the last two years, and what have we done about them?

Well, I think many of you will agree with me that the image of the Society (both from a public and professional perspective) needed a makeover. Addressing this, we have changed the presentation format of the articles in our journal, Weather and Climate, to be more consistent with other peer-reviewed scientiic journals and we have been working hard on a new (very nice-looking and well-designed) website. Critically, visitors to the website will have the capability to download historic and, for members only, the most up-to-date articles from Weather and Climate and most importantly they will have the capability to perform keyword searches on all the text within articles (i.e. not just titles). These features (online access to articles and ability to perform keyword searches) will fulil the requirements of scholarly search engines (such as Google Scholar and Web of Science) so that articles in Weather and Climate will be seen when users of these services perform searches for papers. This 'realisation' of a long- identiied end goal for Weather and Climate will come in my successors reign, and I wish him or her the very best with achieving it.

So, all-in-all I think we've made some good progress over the last couple of years. Thanks to everyone who has helped make my experience as president both enjoyable and intellectually stimulating. Looking forward to seeing many of you at the annual conference.

Andrew Tait

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 4

Annual Conference Registration Monday 19 November – Tuesday 20 November 2012 Copthorne Oriental Bay Hotel, 100 Oriental Parade, Wellington Final day for registration: Wednesday 31 October, 2012 Please complete all ields and email as an attachment to: [email protected] Payment Details The full registration fee is $195 (two days). The single day rate is $110. Extra dinner guest is $60. Please make payment to the following account (include your name in the reference ield): Account name: Meteorological Society of New Zealand Account number: 02-0500-0796439-066 Receipts will be issued upon conirmation of payment.

First name Surname Position Organisation Postal address (1) Postal address (2) Postal address (3) Post code City Email Telephone

Will attend conference dinner? 7:00 pm - 10:00 pm, Copthorne Oriental Bay Hotel (included in your registration fee) (please underline selection) Yes No Any special dietary requirements or physical disability?

Any other information

Full registration $ Single day registration $ Additional dinner guests $

Total payment $

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 6 News from the branches Dunedin members were, in April, invited to a talk held by the Otago Physics department on solar activity and polar climate, given by Mark Clilverd, BAS.

Wellington members were invited to 3 seminars. On 9 August the Geographical Society hosted Prof. Martin Manning’s talk on “Can science deal with a once-only experiment called climate change'. On 30 August, Prof. Dave Frame spoke about ‘Greenhouse gas metrics: A guide for the per- plexed’ (part of the VUW Climate Change Research Institute [CCRI] seminar series). On 20 September, Prof. Jean Palutikof spoke on ‘Flood, famine and dangerous weather: What can the past tell us about adapting to future climate change?’ (again part of the CCRI seminar series).

Auckland Downpour: From Brian Giles, Auckland member and editor of our Journal:

Around noon on 3 July 2012 a severe thunderstorm crossed the Auckland isthmus moving south.

The Meteorological Service had issued a severe thunderstorm warning (the criteria being: rainfall intensity greater than 24mm/hr, hail over 19mm, wind gusts over 110km/h and sig tornado). The warning is shown here was posted on the MetService New Zealand Facebook page: [Downloaded 11 July 2012 from http://www.facebook.com/MetService ]

The media reported various loods and wind damage as well as a seal inding refuge in Pen- rose. The next morning the New Zealand Herald reported several eye witness accounts and videos can be seen at http://www.nzherald.co.nz/amelia-wade/news/article.cfm?a_id=693&objectid=10817244 and http://www.nzherald.co.nz/national/news/video.cfm?c_id=1503075&gal_cid=1503075&gallery_id=126536.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 7 But how bad was it? The heavy rain certainly came and exceeded the amount in the warning. But it was short lived. In a personal communication from Dan Corbett (MetService) the rain gauge at Albert Park recorded 30mm in 33 minutes (1311 to 1344) and the most intense rain was from 1316hr to 1342hr when 26.5mm fell in 26 minutes. Other stations across the city reported similar very heavy but short downpours. Albany in the north had 12.4mm in 30 min (1233-1303). In the west of the city in Henderson 12.5mm arrived in 30 minutes (1232-1312) while at Oratia there was 12.7mm in 30 minutes 1230-1305) including a fall of 7.3mm in 15 min. Nearer the city centre at Grey Lynn 31.5mm fell in 35 minutes (1259–1334) and at Mt Roskill 25.2mm fell in between 1310 and 1340 (30 minutes); at this most of the daily total of 46.7 fell between 1300 and 1440.. Further south at Mangere Bridge falls were less intense with 13.5mm falling in 25 minutes (1321-1346). This data was obtained from the automatic weather stations that are reported by Weather Un- derground website, the link to Grey Lynn for example is at http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IAUCKLAN7. These stations usually record weather elements at 5 min intervals with rainfall given as both an hourly rate and as a days accumulation at each measuring time. Since the times vary very slightly from day to day and station to station they can be centred at speciic 5 minute intervals so comparisons can be made. The graph below was constructed from this data and shows the rainfall intensity from 0900 to 1600 at 11 stations across Auckland from north to south.

The times of peak rates is very consistent across the city with a tendency to occur slightly later as the storm moved south. The shape of the graphs also varies with a short sharp peak at Devonport, Waitakere, Mission Bay, and Mangere Bridge but a wider peak at Bayview, Grey Lynn and Blockhouse Bay. Brian Giles, 14 July 2012

Survey of weather websites: At the 2012 Met Soc Annual Conference we intend to present our indings into the most popular, appealing and useful weather web sites for New Zealanders. Goggle and other web rank- ings only give part of the picture. As part of our investigation we are inviting you to contribute by partaking in a survey at https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/metsoc2012 Newsletter editor Bob McDavitt

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 8

Winter 2012 A season of two halves: cold and dry, then wet and warm

Temperature The irst half of winter was colder than usual; the second half of winter was unusually mild. Overall, winter temperatures were above average in the west and south of the South Island, as well as in Nelson, parts of Northland and around Ohakune. Elsewhere, winter temperatures were generally near average. Rainfall An extremely wet winter in the north and east of the South Island; unusually dry in the west and south of the South Island. Rainfall generally near normal in the North Island, except western Bay of Plenty and the Wairarapa coast, which were wetter than usual. Sunshine An unusually cloudy winter for Otago, south Canterbury, Nelson, Marlborough, and Wellington. Extremely sunny in the west and south of the South Island. It was also a rather sunny winter for western parts of the North Island. Soil moisture As at the end of winter, below normal soil moisture levels for the southwest South Island. Above normal levels for the Kaikoura Coast and south Canterbury.

Overview Winter was characterised by much higher pressures than normal to the southeast of New Zea- land, and extending across the South Island. However, the season started off with frequent southwest winds over the country, resulting in a cooler and drier than normal start to the winter. In the middle of July, a change to more frequent northeast winds brought relatively mild and rather wet weather to many areas. Winter was a season of two halves – it started colder than usual but ended unusually warm. Overall, it was a relatively mild winter in the west and south of the South Island, as well as in Nelson, parts of Northland, and around Ohakune (with winter temperatures between 0.5°C and 1.2°C above winter average). The change in pressure patterns mid-season meant that in all other regions winter temperatures were near average (within 0.5°C of the winter average). The nation-wide average temperature in winter 2012 was 8.7°C (0.4°C above the 1971-2000 winter average), using NIWA’s seven-station temperature series which begins in 1909. It was an extremely wet winter for the north and east of the South Island, being the wettest winter on record for Timaru, and one of the wettest winters on record in the Nelson region. In contrast, it was one of the driest winters recorded in the west and south of the South Island. For the North Island, most regions recorded near normal winter rainfall (between 80 and 120 percent of winter normal rainfall total). Exceptions to this were the western Bay of Plenty and the Wairarapa coast, which were both much wetter than usual. As at the end of winter, below normal soil moisture levels were evident across the southwest South Island. In contrast, above normal soil moisture levels were observed on the Kaikoura Coast and in south Canterbury. It was an unusually cloudy winter for Otago, south Canterbury, Nelson, Marlborough, and Wel- lington. It was the cloudiest winter on record for Takaka. In contrast, it was an extremely sunny winter for the west and south of the South Island. It was also rather sunny over western parts of the North Island. Record-breaking winter sunshine was experienced at Taumarunui, Cheviot, and Queenstown. Further Highlights: The highest temperature was 22.7°C, observed at Christchurch on 26 August. The lowest temperature was -11.8°C, at Darield on 7 June.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 9 The highest 1 -day rainfall experienced was 358 mm at North Egmont on 16 July. The highest gust recorded was 161 km/hr at Taiaroa Head on 28 June. Of the six main centres in winter 2012, Auckland was the warmest and sunniest, Tauranga the wettest, Christchurch the coolest, Dunedin the driest, and Wellington the cloudiest. For further information, please contact: Ms Georgina Grifiths Climate Scientist– NIWA National Climate Centre, Auckland Tel. 09 375 4506 (ofice) or 027 293 6545 (mobile) Dr Mike Revell Principal Scientist, Meteorology and Remote Sensing, NIWA Wellington Tel. 04 386 0328

NOTABLE WEATHER IN NZ - WINTER 2012

This season saw a great variety of weather patterns, with it being a winter of two halves temperature wise - cold during the irst half, but then unusually mild in the second. The most signiicant events of the month involved deep low pressure systems crossing NZ - one resulting in a severe snowstorm in Canterbury in early June, and a series of lows from the end of July to mid-August bringing persistent wet weather, especially in the east of the South Island.

JUNE 2nd - Only 3C maximum in Alexandra, as the town lies under persistent low cloud and fog. 3rd - Warm 20C maximum in Kaikoura. 4th - Frosty morning in inland South Island, eg -6C minimums in Middlemarch and Pukaki. By contrast, considerably milder in the north, with a 20C maximum in Leigh. 5th -7th - Deep low pressure system crosses NZ with stormy weather, including severe snowstorm in Canterbury. (see details below) 8th - Severe morning frosts again in snow covered Canterbury, eg -10C minimum in Culverden (new June record) and -5C in Cheviot. 9th -7C minimum at Molesworth. 11th - Cold south to southwest low spreads over country, with snow showers on some high country areas. 12th - Severe frosts in central North Island, under clear skies in a light southerly low. -5C minimum in Taumaranui. 12th - Cold, showery southerly low in eastern areas; only 6C maximums in Masterton, Dune- din, and Queenstown. Snow showers to low levels about Dunedin and Banks Peninsula, also non-settling lurries at Rimutake Hill Road summit. 14th - Cold southerlies strengthen again over South Island, with snow showers lowering on the high country. 15th - Very cold southerly low, with snow showers to low levels in some eastern parts of South Island. Roads closed on Christchurch’s Port Hills, plus sleet in city. Only 2C maximum in Hanmer. 16th - Very cold southerlies with snow on central and southern North Island high country, falling as low as Taihape. Desert and Napier-Taupo roads closed by snow and ice. Continuing very cold in South Island, with -6C minimum in Manapouri and only 1C maximum in Lumsden 17th - Severe frosts in South Island and parts of North Island, in wake of southerly, eg -9C minimum at Pukaki, -4C in Palmerston North, and -3C in Dunedin. High cloud following the frosts keeps maximums low in places, eg only 3C in Murchison, Culverden, and Gore. 18th - Freezing rain, sleet, and some snow in inland areas of South Island, as moist air in a northerly low from approaching low in Tasman Sea arrives while very cold air persists in val- leys and basins. Only 2C maximum in Alexandra; 4C in Invercargill; 5C in Queenstown and Ashburton. Heavy rain in Nelson region results in some looding and slips. 87mm recorded in Appleby and 66mm in Nelson.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 10 19th - Only 1C maximum in Alexandra; 4C in Queenstown. Black ice makes many Central Ota- go roads hazardous, with school buses delayed until after 10am.Thick fog disrupts operations at Christchurch Airport. Thunderstorm in Nelson sets off property alarms. 20th/21st - Fog causes problems at Queenstown Airport. SH8 between Alexandra and Rox- burgh closed be ice until grit is layed on road. 4C maximum in Alexandra. 23rd- Severe northwesterly gales from inland Canterbury to Wairarapa. (133 km/hr gust recorded on Mt Kaukau) Heavy rain about and west of the Southern Alps. Warm in several eastern areas, eg 22C maximum in Kaikoura and 20C at Christchurch Airport and Cheviot. Howev- er, a change to colder southerlies later in South Island with snow on the high country overnight 23rd/24th. 25th - Chilly 5C maximum at Milford Sound, as snow closed SH94 between there and Te Anau. Other South Island high country roads also affected by snow. 26th/27th - Strong, disturbed west to southwest low over NZ, with gales in exposed areas. (96 km/hr gust recorded in Hawera on 27th). Becoming very cold and showery with hail and snow to near sea-level in the far south on 26th and falls affecting roads further north about the South Island high country. Milford Sound’s 2C maximum on 26th is a new June record. Un- usually low-level snowfalls extend along West Coast by morning of 27th, with 15cm settling in Reefton and snow even lying on beaches in South Westland. Reefton only reaches 1C during the day, with St Arnaud only climbing as high as 2C. 28th - South to southwest gales in exposed southern and eastern parts of South Island. Campervan blown off road near Balclutha. 30th - Severe frosts in many areas. Minimums include -7C in Lumsden, -4C in Motueka, -3C in Te Kuiti, and -1C in Te Puke.

JULY 1st - Very frosty in areas away from eastern coasts. (where there is cloud and an onshore airlow) Minimums include -9C at Tekapo, and -7C in Queenstown. 2nd - Severe frosts again in many sheltered areas. Minimums include -11C in Ranfurly, -9C in Alexandra, -8C at Dunedin Airport and Lumsden, -6C in Timaru and Turangi, -4C in Parapa- raumu, and -1C in Wanganui. 3rd - Thunderstorms with heavy downpours in north of North Island. A particularly heavy storm lashes eastern and central parts of Auckland (especially the Hauraki Gulf islands), with looding and power outages. Wind gusts lift a roof in Hobson Street. SH2 closed by looding north of Katikati. Hailstorm leaves a white blanketing on Waihi Beach. The East Cape area also is deluged, with a new July record of 96mm at Hicks Bay. Another very frosty start to the day in inland areas of South Island, eg -12C minimum in Ophir, Central Otago. Alexandra rises to only -1C under freezing fog. 4th - Heavy rain in Gisborne/Hawkes Bay areas. Flooding about Gisborne. Snow on Canter- bury high country, with Porters Pass closed to towing vehicles. Icy and frosty conditions further south, with water freezing in pipes in some areas. 5th - Foggy about South Auckland and the Waikato. Thick fog closes Auckland Airport, and makes driving hazardous elsewhere around the city. Hamilton only reaches a 6C maximum under the fog cover. Alexandra rises to an icy -2C under freezing fog, which clears later, only to be replaced by high cloud. 6th - Foggy in many areas of the country. Auckland Airport disrupted again, as are Hamilton and Christchurch airports. Recent heavy rain results in looding of Manawatu River, closing SH56 in two places. 7th - Some more fog in scattered areas of NZ, but little disruption. -7C minimum in Queens- town. 8th-11th - Frosty in many areas, eg -7 minimums at Tekapo (8th) and Taumaranui (10th), -5C in Waiouru (5th), and -4C in Cambridge. (10th) Freezing fogs in Central Otago, with 2C maximum in Alexandra on 8th and 9th, and 1C in Wanaka on 9th. Frankton Marina on Lake Waka- tipu frozen on 9th, and jet boats can’t be used on Shotover River due to ice on same day.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 11 12th-17th - Heavy rain, especially in Buller. (see details below)

18th - Anticyclonic northwesterly low over South Island, with daytime maximums well above normal in many northern and eastern places, eg 20C in Motueka (new July record), 18C in Dunedin, 17C in Lauder, and 16C at Nugget Point. 19th - Northerly low with milder than normal temperatures again in parts of South Island, eg 18C maximum at Mt Cook Village. 22nd/23rd - Heavy rain in some northern North Island areas. Flooding and slips cause disruption in Hauraki, Coromadel Peninsula, and western Bay of Plenty, with Waihi Beach isolated on the 23rd. 24th - Dowmpour causes lash looding in Cambridge, with a large slip blocking off several properties. 24th/25th - Heavy rain in east of North Island. Flooding forces kaiti School in Gisborne to close, while the Clive River in Hawkes Bay breaks its banks, resulting in damage to properties and land. By contrast, unusally mild in many western areas 26th - Unseasonably mild in some western parts of North Island under a light southeasterly low. Port Taharoa records a new July record maximum of 20C. 29th July-15th August - Depressions bring heavy rain, especially in east of South Island. (see details below)

AUGUST 16th-19th - Foggy about Dunedin area, thanks to a weak ridge with light winds and lingering ground moisture from recent wet weather. Dunedin Airport disrupted at times, while the fog prevents a container ship entering Dunedin Harbour on 19th. 18th - Thunderstorms in Taranaki, plus a band crosses northern North island areas. Mild in northern areas, eg 20C maximum at Leigh. 19th - Some thunderstorms in north of North Island. Also, an evening thunderstorm in Wel- lington with heavy hail in some southern and eastern parts of city, eg marble-sized stones in Miramar. (some surface looding reported) 20th - Rain causes more looding in eastern Otago. Falls not as heavy as earlier rain events, but saturated ground means not much rain needed to cause looding. Some heavy rain in southwest of North Island; surface looding closes all sports grounds in Palmerston North, and a slips affect Taranaki. Tornado reported in Bell Block, New Plymouth. 21st - Two slips reported in Hamilton after persistent overnight rain. 25th - Warm 20C maximum at Christchurch Airport. Heavy rain in southwest of South Island, with northwesterly gales. (Puysegur Point gusts to 135 km/hr) However, record high August minimums at Southwest Cape, Stewart Island (10C) and Puysegur Point. (12C) 26th - Unseasonably warm in east of South Island, eg 22C maximum in Kaikoura and Christ- church Airport, plus 20C-21C maximums in other eastern South Island places. 27th - Unusually warm overnight minimums in north of South Island. Takaka and Nelson record new August records of 12C. Warm 20C maximum in Motueka. However, colder southwesterlies in Fiordland, with chains required due to snow on SH94 near Homer Tunnel. 28th - Thunder and hail in some central and eastern parts of North Island. Snow showers on ranges, as low as Desert Road for a time. 31st - Above normal temperatures in many areas due to a north to northeast low. 19C maximums in Port Taharoa and Alexandra; 18C in Ranfurly.

MAJOR EVENTS

5th-7th June - Deep low pressure system crosses NZ with stormy weather, including severe snowstorm in Canterbury

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 12 A deep low crossed the country during this period, with heavy rain, severe gales and snow causing disruption to many areas. The most signiicant aspect of this storm was a heavy snow- fall to sea-level in Mid and North Canterbury, including Christchurch, on the 6th. A low, which had been developing over and just to the east of Australia during the previous few days, deepened signiicantly as it crossed the Tasman Sea during the 5th. A north to northwest low strengthened over northern and central NZ as fronts linked to the low moved onto the area later in the day. Rain spread to northern and western areas, and became very heavy in the northwest of the South Island. Slips and looding caused signiicant disruption to the area. High totals included 151mm in Greymouth (a new June record) and 95mm in Reef- ton. Heavy rain in the Wellington area also resulted in trains running late. Meanwhile, very cold air spread onto the lower South Island via cold fronts to the south of the low, bringing a southerly low with snow showers to low levels. A clash between the warmer, moist air from the low and the southerly occurred over the upper South Island overnight 5th/6th. This resulted in heavy snow falling to sea-level in Mid and North Canterbury from the early hours of the 6th. The snow then continued for most of the day as the low established itself over central NZ, with heavy accumulations down to sea-level, including Christchurch. Many roads were closed, schools shut, power cut to (mostly rural) places, and trees and branches felled. In Christchurch, bus services were also halted and Airport operations disrupted. In the city, snow depths varied from about 5cm by the sea to 15cm in the western out- skirts. Inland, the snow acumulated to 20-30cm, but Hanmer received about 45cm and some high country areas (such as Arthurs Pass) recorded as much as one metre. Consequently, daytime temperatures struggled to get much above freezing, with Christchurch Airport’s 0.4C being a new all-time record. Elsewhere in the area, Waipara West (2C), and Che- viot (1C) also set new records for any month, while Arthur Pass’s -1C was a June record. The cold also spread to other northern areas of the South Island, with snow falling to low levels on the West Coast, Kaikoura, Central Marlborough, and some southern parts of the Nelson region. These areas were also lashed by severe gales, causing some damage. In Westland, some 200 cattle were were killed by a wind-chill combination of easterly gales and temperatures in the low single igures. Both Greymouth and Hokitika shivered in June record low maximums of 5C, while Blenheim (where light snow settled in the evening) also recorded an equal record low June maximum of 5C, with Kaikoura only reaching 4C. Overnight 6th/7th, the low moved across the North Island, allowing a cold southerly to cover the island by early 7th. (but with only light snowfalls on the high country). During the day, a weak ridge crossed NZ, with milder westerlies later developing in the far south. Despite the more settled weather, conditions remained icy where the snow still lay thickly and conditions remained hazardous on the roads. Darield and Arthurs Pass recorded overnight lows of -11C (June record at latter location), Christchurch Airport -5C, and Le Bons Bay 0C. Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 5th June to midday NZST 7th June in 24 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 13

13th-17th July - Heavy rain, especially in Buller A moist onshore airlow and frontal systems affected western areas during this period, with heavy rain at times. This especially affected the South Island West Coast, with the Buller region being worst hit by looding.

A moist northwesterly low developed over the lower South Island on the 12th and spread north to cover southern and central NZ on the 13th/14th. This was linked to a complex low pressure system in the South Tasman Sea, which extended onto the far south from later on the 13th. At the same time, ridging from an anticyclone well to the east was slow in leaving the northern North Island. The fronts in the moist northwesterly low dumped heavy rain, which began in Fiordland on 12th and spread further north along the West Coast on the 13th.

On the 15th, the fronts began to move onto the lower North Island, with torrential rain con- centrated in the northwest of the South Island. This resulted in looding affecting Buller and Nelson regions on 15th/16th. Many roads were closed throughout the area, with Westport being isolated on 16th. (there was surface looding in the town as well) Rainfall totals during this period included 204mm in Takaka (14th - new July record), 74mm in Reefton (14th), 89mm in Greymouth (14th), 96mm in Hokitika (13th), and 114mm in Haast. (13th)

The heavy rain also spread to North Island areas exposed tot he north and west on the 15th and persisted into the 16th as further fronts moved in from the Tasman Sea, with looding and slips causing problems (such as road closures) around Lake Taupo, King Country and the Wel- lington area. North Egmont was deluged by 336mm on the 15th, with other high totals on that day including 86mm in Te Puke, 62mm in Turangi, and 48mm in Levin.

Rain cleared the North Island on 17th, as a ridge spread onto central NZ.

By contrast, it was warm in many eastern areas during this period, ending the prolonged cold weather which had prevailed for most of the winter so far. Christchurch Airport, Rangiora, and Cheviot recorded 22C maximums on the 15th, with Napier rising to 21C the next day. Temperatures reached the high teens in other eastern places during this period.

Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 13th July to midday NZST 17th July in 24 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 14

29th July-15th August - Depressions bring heavy rain events, especially in east of South Island

Three signiicant depressions affected NZ during this period, with heavy rain in several areas, especially the east of the South Island, causing much damage in several areas.

The irst depression, which developed in the Tasman Sea over the previous two days, had deepened signiicantly by late on the 29th July when it parked itself to the west of the North Island. It remained there without losing intensity until the 2nd August. Frontal disturbances on its eastern side delivered periods of often heavy rain to northern and central North Island areas. Flooding and slips resulted in road closures on the 30th, especially about the western Bay of Plenty and Hauraki areas, where (in combination with strong winds) the rain caused trees and power-line to fall and the Tauranga sewer system to leak into an estuary. From the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 15 2nd-4th August, heavy rain caused looding in parts of the Gisborne area.

Meanwhile persistent high pressure to the south of NZ resulted in a persistent easterly low over the South Island. Rain set in there late on the 30th, with heavy falls in some areas until the 3rd. The heaviest falls were in North Otago, South Canterbury, and eastern Marlborough/ Kaikoura with slips and looding closing many roads. Rain in Christchurch on 30th/31st caused the Heathcoate River to break its banks. By contrast, a fohn easterly low brought unusually warm temperatures to the West Coast, including 18C in Westport and 17C at Secretary Island on the 1st.

On the 4th/5th August weak ridging meant somewhat more settled conditions in many areas with lighter airlows over most of NZ. However, low pressure to the north and west allowed wet weather to continue in the northern North Island, and on the South Island West Coast. During the 6th, a weak ridged covered NZ, but a new low pressure system moved into the South Tasman. Fog disrupted operations at Invercargill Airport on the 6th/7th.

This new system morphed into a large depression which became centred to the west of the South Island during the 7th, slowly moving northeast to lie to the east of the North Island by the 9th. Heavy rain again affected the eastern South Island areas previously deluged by the previous wet spell, with more looding and slips. The rain caused a sewerage leak in Blenheim on the 8th, while some Marlborough schools closed early. Heavy snow fell on the high country of South Canterbury, disrupting trafic on SH8 between Tekapo and Fairlie. However, South Island ski-ields welcomed these snowfalls. Heavy rain also caused some looding and slips in the Wellington region on the 9th.

A weak ridge covered the South Island on the 9th, and the rest of NZ the next day, but yet another low formed in the Tasman Sea during this time and became a large system as it gradually moved onto the country later on the 11th. From then it became slow moving over NZ on the 12th, remaining there until the 14th. Yet again, moist easterlies brought signiicant rain to many eastern areas of the South Island. Eastern Otago was deluged again, as well as Christ- church and Banks Peninsula. Both areas were plagued by looding and slips with many closed, including SH75 from Christchurch-Akaroa (Little River township looded), SH1 in several places, and some other Otago highways, not to mention numerous smaller roads. Several streets in Christchurch experienced surface looding, while a mudslide forced the evacuation of several properties in Lyttelton on the 14th. Meanwhile, heavy snow fell again in the alpine areas, with many people trapped at Mt Cheeseman ski-ield due to the access road being blocked by snow.

Meanwhile heavy falls of rain and thunderstorms affected several North Island areas, with slips and looding reported in the Bay of Plenty (including Taurangi and Rotorua) and the Wairarapa. A tornado damaged some trees and property near Taipa, Northland on the 12th. A hailstorm struck Pamerston North on the 13th, resulting in some surface looding.

The low weakened on the 15th, with rain easing in the affected areas, though the effects of the wet weather were to last much longer, with many slips having to be cleared.

While no rainfall records were broken during this whole period, there still some very high totals. The highest was 198mm in Akaroa on the 12th August, while other high totals during that event included 73mm in Lyttelton, 64mm in Ashburton, and 46mm at Christchurch Airport. Geraldine Forest recorded 168mm over the 30th/31st July.

Mean sea-level analyses for midday NZST 29th July to midday NZST 14th August in 24 hour steps are shown here.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 16

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 17

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 18

MONTHLY WEATHER NOTES FOR CHRISTCHURCH ( Ben Tichborne) WINTER 2012

JUNE Winter arrived with a bang this year, with a major snowstorm early in the month, and much colder than normal conditions in general. This was thanks to more southerly and southwest- erly lows than normal. After relatively settled weather for the irst few days, a deep low ap- proached from the Tasman Sea on the 5th, while a very cold southerly airmass moved onto the lower South island later in the day. Rain set in over Christchurch in the evening, and had turned by snow by about dawn. The snow continued for most of the day, causing signiicant disruption and keeping the temperatures to only just above 0C. The coldest day in the city on record. As the snow cleared in the evening, it became very icy. A ine day on the 7th, failed to melt much snow, so conditions remained hazardous with freezing temperatures and black ice returning as soon as it got dark. A period of cold southerlies from the 11th-16th brought showers to the city and snow to higher Banks Peninsula hills. At its coldest on the 15th, snow fell to low levels, with some sleet and snow reported in parts of Christchurch, though only settling on the Port Hills this time. A third very cold outbreak affected the South Island on the 26th/27th, but this airlow was south- westerly this time, and Canterbury remaining mostly ine, while snow fell to near sea-level in the far south and (unusually) on the West Coast.

JULY Anticyclones were more predominant this month, but these were interspersed with some depressions crossing over, especially towards the end of the month. The month began with a cloudy (and at times drizzly) week under onshore lows. Anticyclonic conditions then brought ine, frosty weather until the 11th when a northwesterly low became established over the South Island until the 16th and temperatures rose signiicantly. Indeed, the 15th was one of the warmest July days ever recorded in Christchurch, with a 22C maximum at the Airport. Conditions became anticyclonic from the 17th, but there was taste of things to come from the 22nd -25th when a deep low over the north of the North Island brought some drizzle as far south as the city. However, another even deeper depression moved to the west of central NZ during the last two days of the month, with a moist easterly low over the South Island bringing some heavy rain in Christchurch.

AUGUST Continuing the pattern that began in the last few days of July, a series of depressions crossing the North Island during the irst two -thirds of the month maintained damp easterly lows over the South Island. Consequently, it was a very damp, cloudy month for Christchurch, with well above normal rainfall and much less sunshine than usual. Two further periods of signiicant rain affected Canterbury during this period. The irst of these, on the 7th/8th, brought only some briely heavy rain in the city midday on the 8th. However, the second event on the 12th/13th saw a secondary low forming off the Canterbury coast. This time, Christchurch and Banks Peninsula were deluged by heavy rain, which resulted in looding and slips causing road closures and property damage in places. The 20th was also a wet day in the city, but the rain wasn’t heavy. From then on the weather patterns changed, as conditions became more anticyclonic. While some light frosts occurred, several days became mild, with a northwesterly low on the 26th/27th pushing temperatures into the high teens.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 19 Deep south best for Venus viewers 5 June 2012 MICHAEL DALY Stuff/herald http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/7044432/Deep-south-best-for-Venus-viewers

REUTERS The Transit of Venus back in 2004. The lower half of the South Island may be the best bet for anyone wanting to see the Transit of Venus in this country tomorrow. The planet will be passing in front of the Sun from 10.15am to 4.43pm tomorrow. After that it will not do so again until 2117. But hopes the spectacle might be seen throughout the country - with appropriate safeguards to avoid the sun damaging anyone's eyesight - have been blasted away by the turbulent weather system moving onto the country. MetService communications meteorologist Daniel Corbett said people looking for the best place to have any chance of seeing the transit in New Zealand "might want to be leaning toward the lower section of the South Island". That could include somewhere such as Mt John at Lake Tekapo - where there is an observatory, and inland parts of south Otago and Southland. "They will be away from that area of moisture where we'll have the snow and rain further north across the South Island," Corbett told Radio Live. In the North Island managing to get a glimpse would be "very tricky". "We might get a favourable wind, maybe on the east coast of the North Island after that lump of rain has come through," he said. But it would be more a case of "ingers crossed and hope you get a little hole in the cloud type thing as the day progresses".

Flooding on Wellington roads TOM HUNT Dominion Post 6 June 2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington-weather/7049834/Flooding-on-Wellington-roads

BOOM: Lightning strikes in the Wellington region. Lightning struck Wellington about 150 times this morning while heavy rain caused looding on roads around the capital. Wellingtonians were woken up overnight by multiple thunder claps while the temperature plummeted as the windy and wet weather hit the city. MetService forecaster Heath Gullery said many of the esti- mated 150 lightning strikes to hit the Wellington region and southern Wairarapa were directly over the capital. Eighty-seven ground strikes were detected within 50km of Westpac Stadium. "It was an unsettled southerly change. It brought very cold conditions to Wellington this morning.'' MetService said rain in the region peaked between 5am and 6am when 18mm of rain fell in Lower Hutt. MetService forecaster Nic Bonnette said gusts of wind hit 120kmh at 4am at Mt Kaukau, 105kmh at 3am in Kelburn, and 100kmh on Wellington's south coast. A large tree blew over, blocking Whitemans Valley Rd, near Upper Hutt, before 5.30am today. It was expected to be cleared shortly after 7am. (abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 20 Thousands without power as snow storm hits Wednesday June 06, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/snow-in-south-island-bitter-blast-bites-4912633 Heavy snow blanketing Christchurch has seen all Air New Zealand lights in and out of the city cancelled and thousands facing a freezing night without power. Around 10-15cm of snow has fallen in Christchurch since this morning. MetService said the snow should clear tonight after it caused severe disruption across much of the South Island today. Christchurch Airport remains open, but Air NZ has cancelled all lights in and out of the city.

A large number of other lights across the country are also delayed or cancelled - Around 3000 Orion customers are without power, including in parts of Northwood, Pa- panui, Harewood, Brooklands, Weedons, Kim- berley and Hororata. A further 5 to 10cm of snow is expected above 300 metres between Marlborough south of Seddon and Canterbury north of Waipara tonight. The snow is expected to clear from the south overnight and early tomorrow morning, but freezing temperatures overnight are likely to make driving hazardous and motorists are being warned to be cautious. The cold snap has seen the closure of schools and kindergartens across the region. Lincoln University and the University of Canterbury closed this afternoon. Drivers have been warned to take care on all alpine passes. All bus services in Christchurch have also been cancelled with conditions to be re-evaluated later today. (abridged)

Wintry blast moves north 6 June 2012 Dominion Post http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/national/7049818/Heavy-snow-closes-roads-and-schools

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11 homes have been evacuated on the West Coast, and about 3500 homes have lost power in Christchurch and temperatures have plunged to the coldest seen in June for decades. Snow is still falling heavily across the Orion area in Christchurch and central Canterbury. It appears that the cold front has stalled over Christchurch and the area inland to Annat. Mainpower engineering manager Pete Hurford said pockets of homes from Hawarden to Kai- koura had been affected.

"We had a lot of snowfalls in North Canterbury and a lot of power down." Power had been restored to the Kaikoura area, but was lost again about lunch time, Hurford said. "Hanmer is completely cut off. Nobody can leave and nobody can come in." As a result of the snow affecting parts of the South Island a large number of lights across the country are also delayed or cancelled. State highways in and around Christchurch remained open, but were affected by slushy snow. The big concern was that overnight temperatures below zero were predicted and may cause major ice problems in the morning. Flooding had meanwhile forced homes to be evacuated on the West Coast, where regional council planning and environment manager Mike Meehan said surface looding seemed to be the main problem. ((abridged) - © Fairfax NZ News

A snowy disruption Snow disrupts travel, creates wintry mess around Canterbury District 6 June 2012 Timaru Herald http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/7049978/Snow-falls-in-the-south

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 22 JOHN BISSET/ Fairfax NZ Snow blanketed the South Canterbury back country overnight. Mt Horrible and the Hunt- ers Hills behind Timaru received a dusting, with heavier snow settling in the Two Thumb Range behind Fairlie and into the Mackenzie Basin.

The South Island has been lashed by heavy snow that's closed schools and roads and caused delays at Christchurch Airport. MetService forecaster Derek Holland said snow was falling in Christchurch and across Canter- bury, with up to 15cm expected in the city by mid-afternoon. Snow has fallen as far north as Kaikoura. Up to 40cm of snow was expected in parts of Canterbury higher than 300m above sea level, and up to 60cm could fall over Banks Peninsula. (abridged).

Thousands warned of night with no power PRESS 6 June 2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7049325/Snow -closes-schools-roads-cuts-power Debbie Bergin Up to 2000 householders are being warned to prepare for a night without power and treacherous conditions have forced Lewis and Arthurs Pass to close for the night and all Air NZ lights to be cancelled in and out of Christchurch. Weatherwatch.co.nz weather analyst Richard Green said the garden city's midday air temperature was -1degC.

"It's rare even during snow. This is a once-in-30 year event." The highest amount of snow recorded today was 50cms in Waddington and Shefield, west of Christchurch. Darield had 31cms. (abridged) - © Fairfax NZ News

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 23

Bitter blast hits the South http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/212099/bitter-blast-hits- Wed, 6 Jun 2012 Otago Daily times Cars negotiate a snowy Dalziel Road. Photo by Stephen Jaquiery Snow continues to blanket the city of Christ- church and parts of Canterbury, causing much of the region to grind to a halt today. The bad weather has also caused looding on the West Coast, with ten people needing to be evacuated from their homes. Flights at Dunedin airport have now resumed after 10 lights were cancelled this morning. The Dunedin city centre is relatively snow free while the hills and outlying suburbs have borne the brunt of the cold blast. Snow has fallen to ground level in Christchurch city with 10cm reported in the central city and up to 15-20cm out by the airport. (abridged)

'Serious chill' hitting South Island June 11, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/serious-chill- hitting-south-island-4923749 Castle Hill area looking towards Porter Heights. - Source: Supplied by Francis Vallance. A bitter chill is moving up the South Island tonight, with snow expected to fall in Otago and Southland. MetService said gale southwesterlies lashing parts of the Catlins and Otago Peninsula this evening are expected to reach Banks Peninsula early tomorrow morning. Snow showers are expected to near sea level in Southland and eastern Otago and to 200 metres about Banks Peninsula tonight. Meteorologist Dan Corbett predicts that, "while snow over the east and south of the South Is- land is not expected to be nearly as widespread or heavy as last week's, the combination of strong winds, low temperatures and showery conditions will feel seriously chilly." The Chatham Islands will also be affected, with wintry conditions expected over the next few days. "The Chathams will bear the brunt of the cold southwesterlies with very strong winds, squally thunderstorms, hail and sleet from time to time," Corbett said. (abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 24 Christchurch buffeted by strong winds and quake 12/06/2012 The Press http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7083246/Christchurch-buffeted-by-strong-winds-and-quake Sleet has begun falling on Christchurch's Port Hills after a night disrupted by strong winds and a signiicant aftershock. The magnitude-4.2 earthquake shook residents from their sleep at 2.34am, with many com- menting that it felt much stronger. It was centred near Linwood at a shallow nine kilometres. The shallowness and proximity to residents meant many were woken by the shaking, and there were reports of items falling from shelves. (abridged)

Desert Road reopened Saturday June 16, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/ice-closes-desert-road-4931552

Snow on the Desert Road - Source: ONE News Desert Road in the central North Island has been reopened. The road was closed from about 4.30am this morning due to ice. New Zealand is in for a chilly day today as a high pressure system moves up from the south bringing with it cold winds and low temperatures throughout. (abridged)

Hold on, winter won't all be like this 16 June 2012 SOPHIE SPEER CULTURE AND CAPI- TAL REPORTER Dominion Post http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/7112857/Hold-on-winter- won-t-all-be-like-this

Fairfax NZ MIXED BAG: Conditions could swing from cold to warm, says the weatherman. Extreme cold has characterised the irst two weeks of winter, but those biting air temperatures and strong winds are not expected to stick around all season. The country is in a "neutral" weather pattern – neither an El Nino nor a La Nina – meaning conditions could swing from cold weather systems to warmer spells, Met- Service meteorologist Daniel Corbett said. "In the last week we have had cold sou'westerlies that have been more or less stuck over the country, bringing colder air." Tuesday was the coldest day so far, with temperatures barely making it above 8 degrees Celsius, while strong southerly gusts brought the windchill factor much lower. "We've had an early start to winter." The chilly weather was not expected to be the pattern for the whole winter, Mr Corbett said. "We'll have colder weather with breaks of warmer spells. Next week we're going back into a northerly wind system so it will slowly get better and milder. There's a mix of different things in the next couple of weeks." (abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 25 Scientists go remote on rivers STEVE JOYCE Stuff 19 June 2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/7128412/Scientists-go-remote-on-rivers

ALL ABOARD: Niwa is using this remote- controlled boat to measure river lows. Scientists are using a remote-controlled boat to measure river lows in New Zealand. Niwa hydrologist Evan Baddock said the minia- ture speedboat, called a Q-boat, was a great im- provement over traditional methods of measuring water low. "It's like a quantum leap forward in technology." Niwa principal technician Wayne McGrath said the two-metre-long Q-boat would operate in water currents of up to about two metres per second (7kmh) and up to 300 metres from an operator. He said the main advantage of the boat was that rivers could be measured where there was no bridge. Traditional methods also took longer. "The Q-boat was the only one of its type in the country." Waikato Regional Council environment monitoring programme manager Jim Price said using the boat was much safer. "Staff no longer had to stand on road bridges to get these measurements." The Q-boat measures river low using a type of sonar called an Acoustic Doppler Current Pro- iler (ADCP), which sits inside the waterproof boat. McGrath said it worked by detecting the relection of sonar from particles in the water. Baddock said it measured water current at different depths, along with the width and depth of the river. The data recorded was sent to a laptop using enhanced Bluetooth. The Q-boat was supplied by Oceanscience. Its testing on the Clutha, Pomahaka and Taieri Riv- ers was funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation. Baddock said the Q-boat cost about US$7,000 (NZ$8,850) to US$8,000 (NZ$10,100). He said there were plans to buy more boats if Niwa could ind the funds. Q-boats take their name from the decoy merchant ships with concealed weaponry, used to lure submarines into making surface attacks during the two world wars. (abridged)

Fog delays student's job interview http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7127626/Heavy-fog-should-clear-soon ANNA TURNER AND PAUL GORMAN The Press 19 June 2012

DEAN KOZANIC/Fairfax NZ "PRETTY FRUSTRATING": Finance student Nick Prisk's 9.45am light to Auckland was cancelled because of the thick fog over Christchurch. (abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 26 Skies clear as 25 loats trundle by http://www.odt.co.nz/news/queenstown-lakes/214425/skies-clear-25-loats-trundle Mon, 25 Jun 2012 By Tracey Roxburgh Otago Daily Times

TVNZ weather man Sam Wallace displays his large Met- Service helium balloons during yesterday afternoon's Birdman competition, part of the Queenstown Winter Fes- tival. Photo by Tracey Roxburgh. After two days of unsettled weather, Queenstown was bathed in sunshine yesterday, with snowcapped mountains providing the perfect backdrop for the second full day of Queenstown Winter Festival action. Yesterday afternoon, thousands of people crowded around the waterfront to take in the Day on the Bay action, culminating in the highly popular Birdman. The bravest of the brave launched themselves from a jet- ty into the freezing waters of Lake Wakatipu to the delight of the crowd. They included TVNZ weatherman Sam Wallace, sponsored by MetService, who attached large helium balloons to himself in the hopes of gaining some air - the balloons detached from his overpants and loated off into the horizon.

Cull, crowd brave waters for Polar Plunge http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/214500/cull-crowd-brave-waters-polar-plunge Mon, 25 Jun 2012 By Hamish McNeilly Otago Daily Times

Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull, with grand- daughter Carli Hutchinson (2), exit the water at St Clair beach during the annual Polar Plunge yesterday. "Invigorating would be the word I would use," said Dave Cull, moments after exiting the St Clair s urf. - [email protected] (abridged)

Warning to take care on roads 26/06/2012 Southland Teams http://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/news/7170812/Snow-strikes-the-south

Alex Fensome/FAIRFAX NZ Snow is settling in Invercargill after morning lurries and some thunder in the city and snow-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 27 falls around much of the southern region. Meanwhile, winds have battered parts of the country and heavy snow has closed roads. MetService yesterday issued a severe weather warning for the lower North Island and lower South Island as gales of to 150kmh and snow to near sea level in some areas were expected. Snow was almost at lake level in central Queenstown and on the ground in Arrowtown. (abridged)

Severe gusts set to continue Tuesday, June 26, 2012 Hawkes bay Today http://www.hawkesbaytoday.co.nz/news/severe -gusts-set-to-continue/1431248/ Strong winds have been sweeping through Hawke's Bay - and it's not over yet. Hawke's Bay residents who battened down the hatches yesterday as wild westerly winds swept through the region are advised to keep them that way for at least the next three days. The winds have been created by what MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett called a board upper level trough which had parked itself high over the country. It's low patterns were being driven by activity in the southern oceans, an area he said was the current breeding ground for the country's weather. "We haven't had a high pressure system visit us for a week or two but there is one set to arrive later in the week." (abridged)

Snow adds to danger on roads 27/06/2012 Stuff http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7176436/Snow -adds-to-danger-on-roads PAM DOVEY The snowfalls, combined with ice, had produced treacherous driving conditions throughout the South Island and on the North Island's central plateau. Compounding the snow, strong winds were expected to lash the South Island today. Snow had fallen to near sea level in some areas, including Fiordland and Southland, and about 200m in Buller and Westland. In Clu- tha, Southland and Fiordland another 10 to 15cm of snow could fall throughout the day. In the past 24 hours, Mount Ruapehu's Turoa and Whakapapa ski ields had received a dumping of snow between 30 and 41cm, respectively. (abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 28 Fresh snow dusts South Island ANNA TURNER The Press 26 June 2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7173324/Fresh-snow-dusts-South-Island Hayden Gemmell FRESH DUMP: Heavy snow has fallen at Porters skiield today. Canterbury skiields have been hit with another snowstorm, just in time for the school holidays. MetService spokesman Daniel Corbett said a cold southwest low was moving across New Zealand, dusting snow on the tops of the skiields. "I imagine there will be a lot of people waxing their skis this weekend saying 'Let's go'," he said. Heavy snow had fallen at the Porters skiield and ski area general manager Uli Dinsenbacher said he was extremely happy with the conditions this early in the season. (abridged)

For some, minus 10 isn't bad - but plumbers sure are busy Tue, 3 Jul 2012 Otago Daily Times http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/215390/some-minus-10-isnt-bad-plumbers-sure-are-busy A couple elect to walk down the gritted road in Corrie St, Dunedin, rather than the frozen foot- path yesterday morning. Photos by Stephen Jaquiery. Spare a thought for the folks from Twizel, where yesterday's 10degC frost was the 34th morning of sub-zero temperatures out of the past 35, according to Niwa. But the hardy townsfolk say they are not feel- ing the chill - they are just happy to see the sun. "Because the air is so dry, we haven't had the hoar frosts. The temperature hasn't been much above freezing, but after the irst hour it has been beautiful." The sub-zero overnight temperatures have resulted in hundreds of calls in the past few days to plumbers to ix burst or frozen pipes. Some of the homes had ceilings damaged and others were looded. Dunedin was the only centre in Otago to rise above 0degC by 10am. Some places, such as Queenstown and Dunedin airport, were still -7degC mid-morning.

Storm jabs Auckland KELSEY FLETCHER 03/07/2012 Stuff http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7211824/Storm-jabs-Auckland

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 29

PETER MEECHAM/Fairfax NZ High winds cut power to parts of Auckland and brought down trees across the region today. Gale force winds and severe thunderstorms hit the region shortly after midday. A Fire Service spokesman said they had received an inlux of calls about power lines and trees being down across Auckland. Vector spokeswoman Sandy Hodge said power was out to parts of Waiheke Island and Ma- raetai after falling trees caused feeder faults. Stormwater drains overlowed and looding stalled trafic on some of Auckland's arterial routes including Dominion Rd and Fanshawe St. Aucklanders took to Twitter as the storm hit. Bill Ralston tweeted: "Franklin Rd is now Franklin Falls. Whitewater rapids down the street past our place that are suitable of ambitious kayakers." MetService had warned a line of severe thunderstorms was expected across Auckland city before 2pm. Its prediction was pretty much on the money, with the weather clearing soon after. - © Fairfax NZ News

Flooding aftermath in Waihi Beach Julia Proverbs | Thursday, July 5, 2012 http://www.bayofplentytimes.co.nz/news/ looding -aftermath-waihi/1442620/ Hail piles up in a Waihi Beach driveway. A weather bomb lashed the area and caused looding. Photo / Supplied Waihi Beach bore the brunt of a weather bomb that hit the small coastal settlement on Tuesday night. A MetService spokeswoman said 50ml of rain was recorded at its nearest weather station, Golden Cross, in the 24 hours from 6am Tues- day morning until 6am Wednesday morning.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 30

At its height, at 3pm, there was 12ml rainfall in an hour. Coinciding with high tides, the downpour forced the evacuation of around half a dozen people from their properties.

East Coast hit with major rainfall overnight By:Lucy Walker | Latest National News | Wednesday July 4 2012

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland/news/nbnat/801565886-east-coast-hit-with-major-rainfall-overnight The East Coast has been hit with major rainfall overnight. The MetService says the worst hit area was Te Puia springs, north of Gisborne - recording 121 millimetres of rain since 7pm last night.

Coast cops worst of rain Wednesday, July 04, 2012 • Sophie Rishworth http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/article/?id=28344 HEAVY rain overnight brought down the roof of a petrol station’s car wash in Gisborne and police are urging drivers to be cautious of surface looding on the roads around the district.

Gorge closure means more detours for locals Friday July 06, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/heavy-rains-closes-manawatu-gorge-4958465 There has been a major setback for Mana- watu and Tararua residents with State High- way Three through the Manawatu Gorge once again fully closed. Heavy rain in the area resulted in the tem- porary road which was being used as a pas- sage through the gorge for the past ive weeks now completely washed away.

Fog to linger after stranding travellers today Thursday July 05, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/fog-causes-cancelled- lights-auckland-airport-4956847 Thousands of air travellers remain stranded across the country tonight, and there's warning that there could be more chaos tomorrow despite this morning's heavy fog lifting throughout the day. This morning, most of Auckland and the Waikato were thickly blanketed by fog, grounding smaller planes and causing hold-ups. "We've obviously had some moisture over the past 24 hours that saturates the atmosphere but the thing we've had overnight as well, it's been clear skies, light winds and that's the per-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 31 fect recipe for fog," MetService's Daniel Corbett told ONE

Job Cuts At NIWA Lauder: World -Class Science Canned Friday, 6 July 2012, 9:31 am Press Release: NZ Association of Scientists http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1207/S00010/job-cuts-at-niwa-lauder-world-class-science-canned.htm

It has been announced that NIWA plans to cut a number of senior science jobs at its Lauder ofice in Central Otago. These scientists are involved in making critical measurements of Southern Hemisphere climate and atmospheric ozone and will lose their jobs in September. “This will spell the end of the world-class climate measurement science programme at Lauder”, said NZAS Past President, Associate Professor James Renwick. The Lauder ofice is a key component of several global atmosphere and climate observing programmes. It is one of very few such sites in the Southern Hemisphere. The NIWA web site itself notes, “Lauder is one of ive global charter sites in the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change. Consequently, it has some of the best instruments in the world for atmospheric research.” It is a major New Zealand contribution to international science and is crucial to understanding issues such as ozone depletion.

Niwa is looking at cutting jobs Fri, 06 Jul 2012 2:01p.m. 3 News http://www.3news.co.nz/Niwa-job-cuts-hurt-NZ---Greens/tabid/1607/articleID/260399/Default.aspx The Greens say job cuts at Niwa's Central Otago climate research centre will hurt New Zea- land's international reputation and highlight the Government's lack of commitment to climate change science. The centre at Lauder, between Alexandra and Ranfurly, is looking at cutting 2.8 equivalent full-time positions from its staff of 11 scientists, which has some in the scientiic community up in arms. It comes after staff numbers were cut from 16 during the last three years. Green Party environment spokeswoman Eugenie Sage says the Government is "proposing crippling cuts" to the research centre. "It also undermines the good reputation of New Zealand's scientiic community."

Job losses 'kick in the teeth for science' Friday, 6 July, 2012 - VOXY http://www.voxy.co.nz/politics/job-losses-kick-teeth-science/5/128427 The loss of three NIWA staff from New Zealand's world-renowned Lauder research centre is another kick in the teeth for our science community, Labour's associate spokesperson for Sci- ence Megan Woods says. "Lauder specialises in climate change research. It has an international reputation for its work in that area. Scientists from the centre were among a team awarded the prestigious Prime Minister's Science Prize in December.

Minister rejects NIWA Job cut criticism 7 July 2012 Radio NZ http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/110096/minister-rejects-niwa-job-cut-criticism Science and Innovation Minister Steven Joyce says international scientists who have criticised NIWA for planning to cut jobs at a world-leading research centre in central Otago are making juvenile comments.

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Mr Joyce says international scientists should respect NIWA's ability to make its own stafing decisions and the criticism that data could be compromised is "silly juvenile stuff." "We of course are very focussed on making sure that NIWA has the opportunity to do its work," he says. "It's very famous in this area, but right across the area of atmospheric and water research. It does a very very good job." "The reason the changes are being made (is) because of shifting priorities within NIWA's work. "My understanding from NIWA is that these changes are part of their ongoing reinement of their research and they affect just on 3 percent of the budget associated with climate change." Mr Joyce says Lauder will continue to do a great job and NIWA should be allowed to make its own stafing decisions. Copyright © 2012, Radio New Zealand

Bonspiel a go-go after cold snap Monday July 09, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/bonspiel-go-after-cold-snap-4961952 The nation's curlers have found a silver lining to the freezing temperatures that have brought a blanket of snow to Southland and black ice to roads. For the ifth time since 1995, curlers from around the country have descended on the Ida- burn Dam near Oturehua to compete in the annual Bon- spiel curling event. The country's 22 curling clubs were given two-days notice to make their way to the Central Otago town for the two day event. The recent cold temperatures have ensured the ice in the dam was thick enough to sus- tain the more than 250 players expected at this year's event and the 19kg stone players use to sweep across the ice. Bonspiel originates from Otago's Goldrush days in the late 1800s when miners began playing the sport when the water froze and they could no longer mine gold.

Jetboat grounded as Shotover freezes SUE FEA IN QUEENSTOWN 10/07/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7249479/Jetboat-grounded-as-Shotover-freezes

BIG FREEZE: Skippers Canyon Jet managing director Ben Hohneck assesses ice on the banks of the Shotover River. The worst big freeze in almost 20 years has left parts of the Shotover River frozen solid, me-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 33

tres across, keeping jetboat op- erators off the water for almost record periods. The river has been choked with ice, making it too dangerous for boats to operate because of the risk of large chunks of ice getting sucked into the jet units, causing power and steering to fail. In some places the river had frozen about 30cm deep and 10m across. It was the longest period they had been off the water since 1992, when ice blocked their trips for two weeks. - © Fairfax NZ News

Puzzle over carbon research JO MOIR Taranaki Daily News 12/07/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/7264377/Puzzle-over-carbon-research Trees and soil are absorbing 10 per cent more of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but that won't resolve the country's greenhouse gas emissions problem, says the climate change negotiations minister. Research released by Niwa scientists shows the land biosphere, made up of plants, trees and soil, has taken in about 1 billion tonnes of carbon a year since 1988. This is equal to about 10 per cent of global fossil fuel emissions for 2010. Minister Tim Groser said a 10 per cent reduction in New Zealand emissions would be signiicant as a short-term gain but this is only a 10 per cent increase in the biosphere's intake. "The problem is signiicantly bigger than this," he said. "It is helpful, but not very." The measurement of most greenhouse gas emissions is not believed to be affected by the new indings. Taranaki Regional Council director of environment quality Gary Bedford says the challenge for scientists is to work out where the CO2 is going. "... then the emissions trading scheme could be amended to provide reward for those people who are providing sinks," he said. The increased volume of CO2 uptake is signiicant. Mr Bedford says it will end up coming down to the Government as to whether it rewards people for their greater contribution to the global good. Niwa atmospheric scientist Dr Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher says the sudden shift does not mean people should not worry about climate change in the future. Without nature's new uptake regime, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere would probably have increased even more rapidly during the past two decades. She said while the study showed there was a natural shift, scientists did not know how it would change in the future. "We don't yet know whether or not the natural process is going to cause a permanent shift towards this increased uptake or if that's something that could be reversed or something that can be enhanced. "That's going to be the subject of the next series of studies on this topic," she said. The discovery was reported in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, written by an international team of scientists including Dr Mikaloff-Fletcher. - © Fairfax NZ News

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Wild weather lingers over North Island 16/07/2012 Stuff http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7283249/Wild-weather-lingers-over-North-Island Flooding in Nelson. Flooding has closed State Highway 1 between Taupo and Turangi and a heavy rain warning remains in place for the ranges east of Bay of Plenty tonight. However, the wet weather is easing in most parts of the North Island. Heavy rain moving up the country caused looding and slips across the central North Island today. Around 7.30pm NZTA advised SH1 was closed north of Turangi due to looding which made the road impassable at Waiotaka straights. Further north, a 60-metre slip near the Awakino Ho- tel, in Waitomo District, closed State Highway 3 to all trafic during the day. - © Fairfax NZ News

Highways reopen, others still closed after downpours Tuesday July 17, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/sh1-reopens-wild-weather-eases-4972671 The slip on SH3 near Awakino - Source: Supplied

Heavy rain due to slow front John Maslin | Tuesday, July 17, 2012 7:23 Wanga- nui Chronicle

http://www.wanganuichronicle.co.nz/news/heavy-rain-due -to-slow-front/1455877/ BIG WET: The blue areas on this MetService rain radar graphic - recorded at 9.50am yesterday - clearly show the path of the most intense rainfall which has moved across much of eastern and northern NZ through Sunday and again yesterday. Meteorologist Daniel Corbett said even the yellow zones indicate signiicant amounts of rainfall. Blame it on a big, lazy front. That's the word from MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett, who told the Chronicle the slow-moving front was the

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 35 cause of the considerable amounts of rain being dumped across a swathe of country from Mt Taranaki and over the Central Plateau. Mr Corbett said it has been this abnormally high rainfall that feeds the catchment of the Whan- ganui River and rivers that feed into it, especially from eastern Taranaki. "Mt Taranaki has recorded more than 600mm in the last couple of days and they've had nearly 100mm in Strat- ford in the last 24 hours," he said. He said heavy rainfall had been carried along in a "very stubborn, slow-moving front" which had caused looding on the west coast of the South Island on the weekend. "It's bringing waves of intense rainfall through eastern Taranaki and further to the east as it moves slowly away," Mr Corbett said.

Highway 1 closed by loodwaters By Hana Garrett -Walker Monday Jul 16, 2012 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/metservice/news/article.cfm?o_id=112&objectid=10819893

Rapi Kihi,11, (left) and Trent Kaka,10, play on the swing at the Buller Bridge playground reserve. The heavy rain which soaked the West Coast is now heading north. Photo / APN Wanganui is bracing for possible looding overnight as authorities warn the rising Whanganui River could peak at its highest level in more than a decade, but the heavy rain hitting the North Is- land has already seen the country's main highway closed. - APNZ

Global warming sceptics accuse Niwa temperature measurements By Abby Gillies Monday Jul 16, 2012 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10819971 At the High Court in Auckland today, The New Zealand Climate Science Education Trust, a branch of the NZ Climate Science Coalition, challenged national temperature records, saying the method used was unscientiic. Records from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) show a national warming trend of almost 1 degree Celsius in the last century. The igure, which was almost 50 per cent above the global average for the period, was unrelia- ble, the trust says. Niwa says it is conident in the integrity of its science. The NZ Climate Science Coalition is made up of people who are sceptical about global warming and share concerns about "misleading information" on climate change, according to the website. The dispute relates to readings from the "Seven-station Series" (7SS) - stations in Auckland, Masterton, Wellington, Nelson, Hokitika, Lincoln and Dunedin - used by Niwa for national temperature records. The trust says unscientiic methods were used to reach the results, creating an unrealistic in-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 36 dication of climate warming.."We're not saying climate change doesn't exist. We're saying let's at least make sure that evidence of this for New Zealanders is accurate," trust lawyer Terry Sissons told the court today. - APNZ Niwa hits back over invalid data claims Thu, 19 Jul 2012 Otago Daily Times http://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/217746/niwa-lawyers-hit-back-over-invalid-data-claims Lawyers for the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research have hit back at claims by a group sceptical of global warming that the Institute's temperature data is invalid. Niwa's lawyer Justin Smith told the court this morning that the plaintiff appeared to be man- ufacturing rules that suited its case. "They do not come from anywhere but its counsel's inventiveness. They change at the last minute and without notice when a plausible objection is raised." Mr Smith is currently outlining the defence's response to six submissions made by the Trust, including whether Niwa had an obligation to adhere to "recognised scientiic opinion", and whether Niwa used contaminated data. APNZ Decision reserved in Niwa data case Fri, 20 Jul 2012 Otago Daily Times http://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/217911/decision-reserved-niwa-data-case A judge has reserved his decision about whether the National Institute of Water and Atmos- pheric Research used invalid methods to gather temperature data, as alleged by a group sceptical of global warming. APNZ By Hayden Donnell Monday Jul 23, 2012 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10821560 Flood conditions on the Waihi Beach Road off State Highway 2 today. Photo / Alan Gibson Floodwaters have cut off State Highway 2 to the west and south of Waihi as heavy rain continues to lash the North Island. MetService has issued a severe weather watch for Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Hawkes Bay as a front bearing heavy rain moves northward. Waikato Regional Council said up to 200 millimetres of rain had fallen on the Coromandel Peninsula in the last day, with more expected today and tomorrow. Flooding closes Karangahake Gorge

Mon, 23 Jul 2012 3 news

http://www.3news.co.nz/Flooding-closes-

Karangahake-Gorge/tabid/423/

articleID/262309/Default.aspx

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Caution urged as rain continues MICHAEL DALY Stuff 24/07/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7334664/Floods-slips-cause-mayhem-in-Waikato Jayd Queenin Water on the Whakatane road just out of Tauranga. Clean up work following the recent severe weather was under way, and motorists were advised to take care until the work was in- ished, NZTA said.

Massive slip beneath house in Waikato

Wed, 25 Jul 2012 3 news . http://www.3news.co.nz/Massive-slip-beneath-house-in-Waikato/tabid/423/articleID/262569/Default.aspx

The slip on a hillside near Ngaruawahia (Photo: Andre Caccioppoli) Heavy rain has caused a massive slip in the Waikato just metres away from a house. A whole section of hillside has fallen away, leaving the the Hakarimata Rd property danger- ously close to the edge. The property, situated between Huntly and Ngaruawahia, is owned by Bev Wills and her son Murray.

Snow making to increase as climate changes MICHAEL DALY Stuff 26/07/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/7358221/Snow-making-to-increase-as-climate-changes Ski ields will be able to use snow making technology to make up for a loss of natural snow caused by climate change for the rest of this century, a new study suggests. Researchers from Niwa and the United States assessed the range of likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow for a selection of New Zealand ski area locations in one study, while a second study considered the country more generally. Their indings, published in the journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology, considered two future time periods - 2030 to 2049 and 2080 to 2099 - and compared them to the period 1980 to 1999. The elevation where snow duration exceeded three months rose from 1550m in the 1990s to between 1550m and 1750m in the 2040s, and 1700m to 2000m by the 2090s. - © Fairfax NZ News

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 38 Queenstown ski season to continue – big dump possible http://www.scene.co.nz/queenstown-ski-season-will-continue--and-big-dumps-could-be-on-the-way/301825a1.page Paul Taylor 26 Jul 2012

Full blast: Coronet Peak’s snow guns going full-tilt NZSki boss James Coddington has conirmed Queenstown ski ields will remain open throughout the whole season. The ski irm will continue to create usable runs at Coronet Peak and The Remarkables through the expensive practice of snow making. Several weeks without heavy snow and continuing clear blue skies have left the mountains relatively bare. Met Service meteorologists say snow is expected on Sunday or Monday – and signs of El Nino forming in the Paciic could bring proper winter conditions within weeks. Coronet Peak has 116 snow guns, which can pump more than 42,000 cubic metres of water in 12 hours. Scores of guns also service The Remarkables and NZSki-managed Mt Hutt. “Without snow making we wouldn’t have had a season this year.”

Opinion Column “Insight: Climate of fear” By Matthew Theunissen NZ Herald Sunday Jul 29, 2012 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10823014

Meteorologist Dr Jim Salinger. Dr Vincent Gray Says temperature measurements says there has been no change in New Zealand show a rise. to temperature in New Zealand.

The house looking out over Hawke's Bay was meant to be a dream home for isherman Mark Lawrence and his partner Tracy Saxton. Right here on the gravelly beach at Haumoana, they planned to bring up their family. This is where their son Jaxon was born. Soon, he'll be off to school. But this is also where the rest of the dream died. Battered time and time again by the king tides and the storms, the family have been forced to move out of their four-bedroom weath- erboard home with its views out to Cape Kidnappers. "We made a silly mistake coming here," says Lawrence, 49. "It's the last bastion of Kiwidom, isn't it, going to the beach?" His neighbours John and Shirley Bridgeman are ready mix concrete manufacturers. They've piled big, metre-wide concrete blocks all along the frontage - but it's not enough, and they've just won resource consent for a second row. Now, sitting in their living rooms, they can barely see the sea, till the waves break over the top of the Stalinist block walls. Two Haumoana houses have already fallen into the sea and more are under threat. Land In- formation NZ says the next big tide will be around August 24, followed by an even bigger one

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 39 three weeks later. "The sea's been very funny for the last eight or nine weeks, and it's still funny now," says John Bridgeman, 73. Article continues below But he doesn't put it down to global warming. "I think climate change is bullshit. It's erosion that's causing the problem here, not climate change. The bloody water level hasn't altered." Lawrence blames commercial gravel extraction further up the coast, not climate change: "A lot of these scientists make a lot of money - their bread and butter is council and government studies, the whole nine yards. They're just pushing agendas." And this is the change. Ten years ago, few people disputed the role of human kind in releasing climate gases like carbon dioxide, gases that were said to be accelerating the warming of the atmosphere in a greenhouse effect that would melt the polar ice caps and glaciers, expand the oceans and force us all to move to higher ground. Ten years ago, well-known climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger wrote in the NZ Herald that damage to coastal properties in Wellington, Kaikoura and Haumoana was a timely reminder that communities and local authorities should be planning for the long-term consequences of rising sea levels. Today, Salinger still believes global warming is partly to blame for Haumoana's troubles. The ocean surface has warmed by 0.6C since the 1870s, he says, contributing to a 20cm rise in sea levels. But these views are no longer accepted uncritically. Right -wingers like former government ministers Barry Brill and Rodney Hide are among those challenging the science. Now, the Cli- mate Science Education Trust has sought a High Court ruling that could discredit Niwa. So what went wrong? Scientists, says the respected international journal Nature, need to accept they are in a street ight: "The integrity of climate research has taken a very public battering in recent months . . . Climate scientists are on the defensive, knocked off balance by a re-energised community of global-warming deniers who, by dominating the media agenda, are sowing doubts about the fundamental science." Many of these doubts can be traced back to the Kyoto Protocol, and the demands it placed on nations to constrain their carbon dioxide emissions. Governments threatened to pass on the cost of those obligations to businesses, already tied up in red tape and taxes. Businesses gagged, then revolted, with support from well-funded business think tanks like the US Heart- land Institute. It was the 3000-page report of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- mate Change (IPCC) in 2007 that provided critics with the biggest target to pick at. Scientists panicked, sending lurries of emails around the world debating their response. Then critics revealed the IPCC had no credible source for its claim the Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2035, and it had wrongly attributed a rise in natural disasters to global warming. At the centre of all this was New Zealand climate scientist Jim Salinger, an IPCC Nobel laureate who had earlier been unceremoniously sacked from Niwa for speaking to the media without authorisation. He was seen as a martyr by many environmentalists - but his work in charting New Zealand temperatures was regarded as lawed by climate sceptics. To delve back into the troubled history of New Zealand's temperature records, you have to dig back into the history of 65-year-old Salinger. As a 13-year-old in Dunedin, his parents gave him a thermometer and he built his own climate station, and fell in love with weather data. Studying towards his geography PhD at Wellington's Victoria University in the 1970s, he real- ised that different weather stations had recorded different temperatures, because of where they were placed. "At this stage people were thinking we were due another ice age. Some people thought a whole series of cold winters in Europe was the start of it." But his preliminary analysis indicated quite the opposite - that the New Zealand temperature was rising. The only problem with tracking this rise was that our cities did not have thermom-

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 40 eters that had consistently measured temperature in the same space, with the same technology, over an entire century. The differences meant it was dificult to track changes-so he set about revising the early data downwards to allow for shelter, urban warmth and other factors. After graduation, Salinger took his adjustment techniques to the Meteorological Service and then Niwa, varying them slightly each time as new data and techniques became available. And it is that record - showing an average increase in temperature of just under 1C over 100 years - that has provided the basis of Niwa's advice to government on projecting the nation's climate change over coming decades. It is called the "seven-station series" because it tracks temperatures in seven towns: Auck- land, Masterton, Wellington, Nelson, Hokitika, Lincoln and Dunedin. "I stumbled on the fact that New Zealand was warming," says Salinger, now based at Stanford University in Califor- nia. "I didn't try to attribute it to anything, certainly not global warming."

Ninety-year-old scientist Dr Vincent Gray got his PhD in chemistry from Cambridge University in 1946. "In those days, it seems to me, science was honest," he muses. Gray's career has taken him around the globe - working in Britain, Canada, France, New Zealand and most recently China where he was chief chemist for the Coal Research Association, but has retired to Wel- lington. It was Gray's review of the "seven station series" that sparked the years of challenges that, this month, reached the High Court. Contrary to Niwa's inding, Gray says there has been no change in temperatures. He objects to Salinger's adjustments, and to the practice of extrapo- lating data from neighbouring stations, sometimes hundreds of kilometres away, to ill gaps in the data. He believes scientists and governments are part of a "global conspiracy". They want to believe in global warming, to justify big, expensive projects, and to justify their existence, he says. So, in 2006, Gray teamed up with expat Kiwi geologist Professor Bob Carter, who is on the Heartland Institute payroll, and other sceptics to form the New Zealand Climate Science Coali- tion. Former energy minister Barry Brill joined the coalition three years ago and is now chairman. He believes there has been global warming, but New Zealand has not been affected by it and disputes the igures. The group raised its concerns with former Act leader Hide who, over several weeks in late 2009, harassed the Government at Parliamentary question time until Cabinet minister Wayne Mapp brokered a meeting with Niwa chief climate scientist David Wratt, to discuss Hide's concerns. Hide recalls: "They couldn't answer the most basic questions; were very defensive; and then just told me that I should run away and write my own scientiic paper if I had a problem with their temperature record." In 2010, the coalition wrote to Niwa to discuss its methodology, but Brill says the agency re- fused to meet - though Niwa did review its seven-station series at Mapp's direction. So it was, says 71-year-old Brill, that he decided to invest tens of thousands of dollars of his own money in suing Niwa at the High Court. "We issued proceedings asking for the court to declare that the record was wrong. There is no other forum available to challenge public science." Outside the High Court at Auckland, members of the Flat Earth Society of Middle Earth gather in medieval costume to lend their tongue-in-cheek support to the Climate Science Coalition. Inside the courtroom, the Climate Science Education Trust (an offshoot of the Coalition) puts its case. Lawyer Terry Sissons occasionally confers with Brill, seated next to him as junior counsel, for advice on particular points.

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Niwa's lawyer Justin Smith breaks down the trust's arguments piece by piece, arguing Sissons' science is lawed and furthermore, that the court should not even hear it. "The court is not the appropriate forum to resolve such scientiic disputes," he says. Justice Geoffrey Venning leafs through the mountain of paperwork before him about the two sides' conlicting claims, giving little signal of whose argument he inds more compelling. At the end of the four -day hearing, he reserves his decision to be delivered in the next few months. To Niwa and the climate scientists who have worked there, this hearing is an inappropriate waste of time and money. Niwa chief executive John Morgan says the agency has always vigorously resisted the coalition's "poorly-founded" allegations. "We irmly believe in the integrity of our science, and the people who do it, and were determined to defend them. We look forward to the outcome." Climate change sceptics -"deniers", as they have been dubbed - justiiably claim to have been blackballed by their mainstream colleagues; their arguments ridiculed and marginalised. But now, climate scientists like Renwick and Salinger allege the tables are turned. They face abuse online, they say, and their friends and colleagues in the US and Australia have faced death threats. Renwick worries how global warming will affect his 16-year-old son tomorrow; he doesn't worry about the criticisms against himself today. "All of us have been disparaged in blogs and letters to the editors," he says. "I've had colleagues in America who have received death threats. This court case was designed to cast doubt on the quality of the science that's done at Niwa, and on the quality of the integrity of people who do climate research in New Zealand - that was the point of it." He wonders how much science will be involved if the trust wins on a technical point. "In the sceptic community worldwide, it would be huge news." Back to Haumoana, and Salinger and Renwick say climate change is contributing to rising temperatures, rising sea levels, and to the king tides that are chipping away at the houses. Homeowner Bridgeman says that's "bullshit". The question is, what does Justice Geoffrey Venning think? - APNZ (unabridged)

Heavy rain across the country MICHAEL DALY AND STACEY KIRK 30/07/2012 Stuff http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7374209/ Heavy-rain-across-the-country

Heavy rain is lashing parts of the country today with some places under heavy rainfall warnings already measuring more than 100 millimetres of rainfall in the past 24 hours. A deep slow-moving low to the west of the North Island was directing a strengthening east to northeast low over the country, and MetService said some places already being battered by rain could expect another 24 hours of solid rainfall. • © Fairfax NZ News

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 42

Storm sinks $75,000 launch as coast takes battering Wednesday Aug 1, 2012 NZ Herald http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10823702 Only the top of the 10.6m launch was visible after the sinking. Photo / Alan Gibson A $75,000 launch fell victim to the high seas and rough winds which hammered the Bay of Plenty on Monday night. Only a small part of the 10.6m launch was visible yesterday above the surface of Tauranga Harbour near Omokoroa. The Fire Service responded to almost 20 calls in the Bay of Plenty over weather- related issues during the night. Many of them involved looded houses. A large low which settled over New Zealand yesterday is to blame for the destruction, and forecasters say the miserable weather will be sticking around for the rest of the week before dying out on Sunday and Mon- day. (abridged)

Research work not being downgraded: Niwa By Lynda van Kempen on Thu, 2 Aug 2012 Otago Daily times http://www.odt.co.nz/regions/central-otago/219749/research-work-not-being-downgraded-despite-cuts-niwa-says Murray Poulter The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research says it has no intention of "downgrading" the work done at its Lauder station or closing the facility. Despite staff cuts conirmed this week at Lauder, Niwa's chief scientist of atmospheric research, Dr Murray Poulter, said the station would continue to be supported as a "key facility". "Lauder celebrated its 50th anniversary last year and why is it still around? Because it's continued to evolve and it's still evolv- ing to meet the changing science needs." Three jobs at the facility had been under threat and those roles will be disestablished. A new position will be created to "maintain measurement quality and innovation", he said earlier this week. The proposed cuts drew ire from international agencies and scientists working in atmospheric research, who said the move had repercussions for global research. They feared international programmes would be affected, along with the integrity of data collected at Lauder in the future. "We knew our decision wouldn't satisfy everyone, but we have taken feedback on board, from our own staff and from national and international scientists, in coming to this decision," Dr Poulter said. Three factors that came through in the feedback were the importance of Lauder as an observing site, the value of long-term measurements and the need for science input and oversight of those measurements. "Like any business, we have to live within the resources we get," Dr Poulter said. There are 11 staff based at the station and that number will drop by two once the cuts take effect. (abridged)

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 43 Tauranga’s wettest July in 61 years Thursday 02nd Aug, 2012 SunLive http://www.sunlive.co.nz/news/29389-taurangas-wettest-july-61-years.html Heavy rain looded many Bay of Plenty roads in July. Tauranga experienced one of its wettest July’s on record and more rain is predicted with the Met- Service issuing a severe weather watch for the Bay of Plenty. According to NIWA igures a total of 328mm of rain was recorded at Tauranga Airport – the second wettest July since records began 114 years ago.In 1951, 348mm of rain was recorded in Ju- ly of that year. (abridged). Our big wet - soggiest July in 60 years Amy McGillivray | Thursday, August 2, 2012 7:39 http://www.bayofplentytimes.co.nz/news/our-big-wet-soggiest-july-in-60-years/1489689/

Wild weather in July caused havoc across the Bay with swollen rivers, slips, wet roads and wild seas. Tauranga was pelted with two-and-a-half times more rain than usual last month making it the wettest July in more than 60 years. Te Puke was pounded with 382mm of rain, more than two times the average amount for the month, making it the wettest July since records began in 1973. (Abridged).

Hawke's Bay's big wet set to continue STAFF REPORTERS | Friday, August 3, 2012 Hawkes Bay Today http://www.hawkesbaytoday.co.nz/news/our-big-wet-set-to-continue/1491333/ The hills and ranges of Hawke's Bay were under a heavy rain warning through to midday today and possibly longer, MetService forecasts show. The warning, covering Hawke's Bay and Tararua, came as a slow-moving low to the west of the North Island directed a moist easterly low that delivered the heavy falls. Forecasts did not show a day without some rain until early next week. (Abridged).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 44 Snow ahead as rain pounds south MICHAEL DALY Stuff Last updated 08/08/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7436752/Snow-ahead-as-rain-pounds-south Doug Sail/ FAIRFAX NZ FLOODED: State Highway 1, south of Timaru. Rivers are rising as rain pounds parts of the country, and snow is forecast to be on the way for some mountain passes.

South Canterbury and Marlborough hardly had time to dry out from last week's drenching before another nasty weather system got the areas in its sights. - © Fairfax NZ News (Abridged).

NIWA maps Mt Tongariro ash cloud shortly after the eruption Tuesday, 7 August 2012, 4:52 pm http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1208/S00020/niwa-maps-mt-tongariro-ash-cloud- shortly-after-the-eruption.htm Mt Tongariro erupted at 11.52pm on 6 August. These latest infra-red satellite images of ash clouds over New Zealand were created using the NOAA 18 and 19 satellites.

The irst map, 0031 NZLT 7 August The second map, 0145 NZLT 7 August Taken 39 minutes after the eruption. Taken 13 minutes after the eruption.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 45 NIWA Principal Scientist Michael Uddstrom, “What we are seeing [in this map] is infra -red imagery measured by the satellite during the event.” It shows the eruption cloud from the event. The cloud is 25 kilometres long and 15 kilometres wide. The temperature at the top of the cloud (associated with the eruption) is minus 54 degrees centigrade and it's about 12 kilometres high at its highest point in the atmosphere. The second map show the cloud as it extends from 176.4 degrees to 177.0 degrees east on the east coast of the North Island. At 1:45am the highest cloud was just over the coast, south of Wairoa, in the Central Hawkes Bay. The cloud has travelled 250 kilometres in four hours at an average speed of 18 metres per second. “It's rapidly blowing out to the east of New Zealand,” says NIWA’s Dr Richard Turner. To illustrate this story see the full downloaded infra-red imagery from: http://www.niwa.co.nz/gallery/mt-tongariro-eruption (Abridged).

Sulphur from eruption taints Wellington SHABNAM DASTGHEIB AND MIKE WATSON 08/08/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/7435570/Sulphur-from-eruption-taints-Wellington Eruption at Mt Tongariro

A sheep is covered in ash after Mt Tongariro erupted for the irst time in over 100 years. The smell of sulphur has gradually faded in Wellington, with MetService saying the rain is to thank for that. Many people reported a strong smell of sulphur in the air in the capital this morning and GNS Science duty vul- canologist Craig Miller said it was most likely the smells were caused by the eruption at Mt Tongariro. MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett said Welling- ton's rain would be cleansing the air, similar to walking through a shower. He said reports that the smell was now stronger around the Hawkes Bay could be because they had a clear day. Wind conditions were right for the smell to travel south yesterday and hadn't really changed since. (Abridged).

Heavy rain causes slips and looding 09/08/2012 Stuff http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7444116/Heavy-rain-causes-slips-and-looding JOHN BISSET/Fairfax NZ South Can- terbury was deluged with rain on Wednesday which caused widespread looding. Flood waters covered most of the road including Timaru's BP Show- grounds on Evans Street. State Highway 1, 65km south of Blenheim, has been closed due to a slip. The road was likely to reopen this morning. MetService this morning lifted the heavy rain warning that had been in place for the Kaikoura Coast and ranges. Last week 200 millimetres of rain fell in some parts of South Canter- bury. The latest deluge is falling

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 46 on saturated soil and has only reached 30 millimetres in some parts so far, but that was likely to increase, according to the Metservice, which has forecast for 60 to 90 millimetres. - © Fairfax NZ News (Abridged).

Heavy rain lashes the south PAUL GORMAN The Press 08/08/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7436629/Heavy-rain-lashes-the-south Scott Hammond RISING WATERS: The Taylor river, which runs through Riverside Park in Blenheim, has burst its banks. Rivers are bursting their banks and some roads are closed as heavy rain lashes the South Island. Downpours in South Canterbury are expected to slowly creep north to affect the rest of Canterbury by this afternoon. The Taylor River in Blenheim is swollen and police are urging drivers to take extreme caution. (Abridged).

Low levels of volcanic activity at White Island Friday August 10, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/white-island-ash-coats-cars-homes-5016231 Aerial views of White Island. - Source: ONE News The Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sci- ences (GNS) says the volcanic tremor remains at low levels but a weak ash and steam plume is still being emitted. White Island, which lies 48 kilometres off the Bay of Plenty coast, was raised to a Vol- canic Alert Level 2 after a surveillance cam- era captured a small eruption from its crater on Sunday. The amount of ash emission varies over time and the plume is rising to only a few hun- dred metres above the island. However, ash emissions have drifted as far as Papamoa, near Tauranga's coastline, coating cars and houses. GNS says that reports of lightning from the island last night were incorrect. But volcanologists have conirmed that there was a lightning storm around 50km to the north of White Island which may have appeared as originating from the volcano when observed from the mainland. The Aviation Colour Code remains at orange, meaning the volcano is "exhibiting heightened unrest". (Abridged).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 47 Week of 'yucky' weather ahead KATIE CHAPMAN Dominion Post 12/08/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington-weather/7463243/Week-of-yucky-weather-ahead ROSS GIBLIN/The Dominion Post. Wellington was lashed with rain on Thursday. Wet weather is set to continue in Wellington through the week. The forecast rain comes after the capital was pounded by 25.8 millimetres of rain on Thurs- day. Another low weather front is sweeping its way down New Zealand, prompting warnings for many areas still recovering from drenchings earlier this week, including Northland, northern Gisborne, Waikato and Marlborough. But while Wellington would be hit by ''yucky'' weather, it wouldn't be as severe as in areas more exposed in the east, MetService meteorologist Dan Corbett said. ''Sunday is the movie day.'' The Wairarapa was also likely to see heavy downpours, he said. The South Island, and in particular Canterbury would be the worst hit, but the front was acting "like a washing machine on spin cycle", with "lumps of moisture" spinning round that would continue to bring patches of rain to Wellington through the week, eventually drying out by Thursday and Friday. Heavy rain and looding in Wairarapa TOM HUNT Dominion Post 12/08/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion- post/news/wairarapa/7464271/ Heavy-rain-and-looding-in- Wairarapa A river in lood east of Carterton. Wairarapa has been hit by heavy rain this afternoon, looding some areas. MetService forecaster John Law said the rain came from a front that moved across the North Island today. It arrived in Wairarapa about 4pm and was starting to move on by 5pm. In Masterton 31mm fell and Castlepoint had 18mm. One spot at the top of the Tararua Ranges got 46mm rain. The same front caused heavy rain in Bay of Plenty, Gisborne, and Hawke's Bay earlier today. The front was moving south tonight with heavy rain warnings out for Canterbury and parts of Otago. - © Fairfax NZ News (Abridged).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 48 Warning of more heavy rain for South Is RACHEL YOUNG, CAROLINE KING, PAUL GORMAN STACEY KIRK Stuff 13/08/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7466073/Flash-lood-threatens-Lyttelton-homes

Dean Kozanic DOWNPOURS: Rain across Canterbury at 7.15am, shown in this MetService rain radar image. A band of heavy rain moving across the South Island may cause more looding and slips in Canterbury, MetService says. Flooding trapped residents of the Banks Peninsula township of Little River in their homes and rising waters also threatened homes in Christchurch and Lyttelton. MetService has recorded more than 60 millimetres of rain in the city's Botanic Gardens in 24 hours, with 100 millimetres falling on Banks Peninsula. Flooding continues to cause disruption in Christchurch, with rising waters threatening properties. © Fairfax NZ News (Abridged).

Heavy rain causes loods around Canterbury By Matthew Theunissen NZ Herald Monday Aug 13, 2012 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10826568 Dozens of Canterbury properties were looded by heavy rain overnight. A Fire Service spokesman said there were 39 weather-related calls from the region between about 10pm and 2am, mostly for surface looding. The incidents were mostly around Lyttelton and Sumner, already sodden after several periods of heavy rain in the past month.

MetService severe weather forecaster Eric Brenstrum said about 100mm of rain fell in parts of the Canter- bury Plains overnight, and a bit more than that in Banks Peninsula. - APNZ (Abridged).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 49 Persistent rain looms for soggy Canterbury PAUL GORMAN The Press 14/08/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/your-weather/7471080/More-rain-due-in-soggy-Canty Dean KozanicZoom : Lit- tle River's main road is looded. Further persistent rain is just hours away from hitting Canterbury, adding to the misery of those coping with loodwaters, blocked roads and the realities of being cut off. The next rain band is gathering strength in Pegasus Bay this morning and should arrive in coastal Canterbury by noon.

MetService is warning that persistent moderate rain, with heavy bursts, is likely throughout the afternoon and evening around the region, easing early tomorrow. Another 40 millimetres or more could fall in central Canterbury by midnight, with 60mm south of the Rakaia River. Spokesman Dan Corbett said the worry was that the ground was already saturated in many places. "If you look at the radar pictures, you can see the edge of the rain coming in now out to the east. It's not looking like it is going to be quite as heavy as what you have seen, but you don't need any more." The only good news from yesterday's bad weather was it had brought much-needed snow to Canterbury ski ields. Above about 1000 metres there had been between 15 centimetres and 30cm of snow, he said. (Abridged).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 50 Drenched Dunedin in for more rain By Rebecca Fox on Tue, 14 Aug 2012 Otago Daily Times http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/221464/drenched-dunedin-more-rain

Thomas Gibson stands beside a normally trickling Silver Stream this afternoon. Photo from the Gibson Family. Heavy rain continues to fall in Dunedin and North Otago, causing surface looding and forcing more road closures. (Abridged).

Algae bloom lights up Napier coast Friday August 17, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/algae-bloom-lights-up-napier-coast-5030296 The algae bloom approaches Napier Harbour. - Source: ONE News The red tinged water spreading along the Napier Coast has been conirmed as an algae bloom. The natural phenomenon turning areas of Hawke's Bay water various shades of brown, purple and red, is due to a non-toxic algae known as Akashiwo san- guinea, meaning 'red tide' in Japanese. The bloom, commonly seen in Tasmania and off the California and Florida coastlines, is most likely caused by consistent rain in Hawke's Bay over recent weeks. (Abridged).

Cold and wet tough on newborns TIM CRONSHAW The Press 17/08/2012 © Fairfax NZ News (Abridged). http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/your-weather/7495172/Cold-and-wet-tough-on-newborns SCOTT HAMMOND CHALLENGING: Cold, wet weather makes it tough on newborns. The long wet spell is leaving farm paddocks waterlogged and putting pressure on farmers who are in the middle of calving and have started lambing in pockets of Canterbury. Federated Farmers ad- verse events spokeswoman Katie Milne said farmers needed weeks of ine and settled weather to dry out paddocks. 'The only way to describe much of rural New Zealand is sodden. Farmers are hop- ing for a decent ine spell in order for saturated pasture to recover." She said early warnings by weather forecasters for the cold snap had allowed farmers to put lambing locks in shelter, but the lengthy wet spell on top of previous storms had saturated paddocks and been hard on newborns.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 51

NZ farmers get innovative in wet weather By: Aroha Tahau | Latest Rural News | Saturday August 18 2012 Newstalk ZB http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland/news/nbrur/1259633295-nz-farmers-get-innovative-in-wet-weather New Zealand farmers are being innovative as weeks of wet weather hinders calving season. Some farmers in the Waikato are lay- ing out rubber mats for their cows to calve on to avoid new born livestock being born into mud and water. Federated Farmers President Bruce Wills says they have water level records going back 60 years and this years rainfall has smashed any previous, which means the farmers are having to get creative with ways to protect their new born animals. "This is one out of the box and you've just got to look at some options that you might not have employed in the past because it's so wet." Mr Wills says the heavy rain is also known to bring on more calves and lambs. (Abridged).

Spectacular lightning strikes Auckland Saturday August 18, 2012 Source: ONE News http://tvnz.co.nz/national-news/spectacular-lightning-strikes-auckland-5031902 A spectacular lightning storm lit up the skies over Auckland last night, with more storms forecast for the area today. The fork lightning and rumbling thunder were accompanied by torrential rain, with more than a thousand lightning strikes an hour recorded as the storms made land. MetService said the thunderstorms in Auckland are expected in two main periods, one shortly after midnight, and a second from about dawn. (Abridged).

Lightning storm hits Wellington 21/08/2012 http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington-weather/7513265/Lightning-storm-hits-Wellington David McConachie Taken from Korokoro showing lightning strikes near Somes Island.

Wellington was treated to a spectacular lightning display last night as a storm dropped hail stones the size of marbles on the Miramar Pen- insula. MetService severe weather forecaster Paul Mal- linson said several storms converged south of the city about 5pm. Between 8.15pm and 9pm the combined storm moved from Wellington Airport to Eastbourne . About 200 lightning strikes were recorded.

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 52

MetService forecaster Stephen Glassey said the thunder storm formed about 5pm when a southerly and northerly wind converged, creating lift. MetService duty forecaster Mads Naeraa said last night's thunder and lightning storm was an unusual one for Wellington. "It was cool aloft with moist warm air underneath. We had spring like 15 degree weather yesterday afternoon. From 5pm to 9pm...we had strong convection and hence thunderstorms," Mr Naeraa said. It also coincided with strong updrafts which was the reason for the hail falling on suburbs like Island Bay. "In Island Bay we had 5-6mms of hail on the ground and on roofs," Mr Naeraa said. (Abridged). From big wet to drought? Thursday, August 23, 2012 Hawkes Bay Today http://www.hawkesbaytoday.co.nz/news/from-big-wet-to-drought/1515902/

Sheep in drought conditions in Takapau in 2010. FILE

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 53

The rainy winter in the Bay could be soon be replaced by drought conditions caused by El Nino. Niwa agricultural climatologist Alan Porteous said El Nino was very much on the cards - all the signs were there and major climate agencies believed one would develop between now and September The Japan Meteorological Agency this week conirmed the onset of an El Nino. NIWA is also tipping an El Nino to develop in the wake of the La Nina, which created the often moist easterly weather pattern."The 'super wet' of the past few months has seen a lot of slips and slope stability has been at a worrisome point," Mr Porteous said. "But what we don't want now is a rapid switch to really dry conditions - that would exacerbate the soil conditions already caused by the saturation, and could then see soil dry out so rapidly that it cracks up and makes it more vulnerable to the next heavy rain." El Ninos usually see an increase in drier, westerly winds in summer for the North Island, and the possibility of drought on the East Coast which could hammer grass that has adapted to ex- ceptionally wet weather in the past two months. On Monday the northeasterlies are set to be replaced by northwesterlies, with a rise to 17C and more sunshine, although there is the chance of a shower south of Hastings on Tuesday and Wednesday. (Abridged).

City bathed in spring sunshine 26/08/2012 The Press http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/your-weather/7550368/City-bathed-in-spring-sunshine

Don Scott After a long winter spent under leaky roofs on looded streets, Cantabrians are embracing the arrival of spring weather. According to MetService, the mercury rose to 20 degrees in the city before 1:30pm. (Abridged).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 54 A ine day for the beach Mon, 27 Aug 2012 Otago Daily times http://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/223325/ine -day-beachNews: Dunedin

Hundreds of Dunedin residents made the most of unseasonably warm conditions by hitting the beaches yesterday. The temperature reached 19.7degC in the city.

Niwa scientists take winning photos 28/08/2012 Dominion Post http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion -post/culture/visual-arts/7564934/Niwa-scientists-take-winning-photos

Mt Olympus - the Our Places winner - by Katja Riedel Two Wellington scientists have taken out photography prizes in Niwa's excellence awards, announced last night in Auckland. The awards were established to recognise people who have made an exceptional contribution to the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa). The Our Places Award went to Wellington climate scientist Katja Reidel for her photo "Mt Olympus". Dr Reidel also got the People's Choice Award for "Mt Taranaki" while the Our Work Award was given to Wellington oceanographer Craig Stevens for "Penguins". The Our People Award went to Hamilton biologist Tracey Edwards for her photograph "Diver" while aquatic biodiversity diver Crispin Middleton received the Special Award for his "Leather Jelly" image. (Abridged).

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 55

Meteorological Society of New Zealand Newsletter - Sep 2012 - Page 56

Oficial notice to members for AGM 2012

You are invited to attend our 33rd Annual General Meeting This is planned for around 6pm at the end of the irst day of our Annual Conference at Copethorne Hotel, 100 oriental Parade, Wellington. on Monday 19 Nov 2012.

All inancial members are allowed to attend and vote. Apologies may be emailed to [email protected]

Agenda

1. Attendance

2. Apologies

3. Conirmation of minutes of previous AGM

4. Matters Arising:

5. President’s Report

6. Treasurer’s Report

7. Appointment of Auditor

8. Subscription Rate

9. Election of Oficers

10. Other Matters