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EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY 2019 Year End Report

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EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY 2019 Year End Report EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY 2019 Year End Report COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE (% TOTAL RETURN) FOR PERIODS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 20191 SINCE 3 MONTHS 1 YEAR 3 YEARS2 5 YEARS2 10 YEARS2 INCEPTION2,3 HL EMERGING MARKETS (GROSS OF FEES) 12.73 26.90 12.82 7.52 6.95 12.70 HL EMERGING MARKETS (NET OF FEES) 12.47 25.78 11.83 6.59 6.00 11.79 MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX (GROSS)4,5 11.93 18.88 11.99 6.00 4.04 9.18 1The Composite performance returns shown are preliminary; 2Annualized Returns; 3Inception Date: November 30, 1998; 4The Benchmark Index; 5Gross of withholding taxes. Please read the above performance in conjunction with the footnotes on the last page of this report. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All performance and data shown are in US dollar terms, unless otherwise noted. SECTOR EXPOSURE (%) WHAT'S INSIDE HL EM MSCI EM (UNDER) / OVER THE BENCHMARK Market Review › CASH 3.3 — EMs rose sharply in the quarter, INFO TECHNOLOGY 18.9 15.7 supported by easing US-China trade tensions and fading fears CONS STAPLES 8.9 6.3 of an imminent global recession. INDUSTRIALS 7.9 5.3 Performance and Attribution › FINANCIALS 26.5 24.2 Sources of relative return by CONS DISCRETIONARY 15.0 14.2 region and sector. ENERGY 7.5 7.4 UTILITIES 2.1 2.6 Perspective and Outlook › HEALTH CARE 1.2 2.9 The strong EM returns in 2019 reflected a jump in the earnings COMM SERVICES 8.1 11.0 multiple that investors were REAL ESTATE 0.0 3.0 willing to pay for companies’ future cash flows, particularly MATERIALS 0.6 7.4 for semiconductor manufacturers (8.0) (4.0) 0.0 4.0 8.0 and online retailers. We examine whether investors’ positive GEOGRAPHIC EXPOSURE (%) expectations are justified and review some of our holdings in HL EM MSCI EM (UNDER) / OVER THE BENCHMARK these industries. RUSSIA 8.6 3.9 Portfolio Highlights › 6 DEVELOPED MARKET LISTED 4.4 — We made only incremental CASH 3.3 — changes to the portfolio in 2019 based on companies’ quality 7 FRONTIER MARKETS 2.3 — and growth prospects and share MEXICO 4.4 2.3 prices. We discuss new holdings in China and India across BRAZIL 7.5 7.5 different sectors. CHINA + HONG KONG8 33.3 34.3 Portfolio Holdings › SOUTH AFRICA 2.6 4.7 Information about the companies INDIA 6.4 8.6 held in our portfolio. SOUTH KOREA 9.3 11.7 Portfolio Facts › TAIWAN 8.3 11.7 Contributors, detractors, SMALL EMERGING MARKETS9 9.6 15.3 characteristics, and (8.0) (4.0) 0.0 4.0 8.0 completed transactions. 6Emerging markets or frontier markets companies listed in developed markets; 7Includes countries with less-developed markets outside the Index; 8The Harding Loevner Emerging Markets Model Portfolio’s end weight in China is 26.8% and Hong Kong is 6.5%. The Benchmark does not ONLINE SUPPLEMENTS include Hong Kong; 9Includes the remaining emerging markets, which individually, comprise less than 5% of the Index. Sector and geographic allocations are supplemental information only and complement the fully compliant Watch the Emerging Markets Emerging Markets Composite GIPS Presentation. Equity quarterly review Source: Harding Loevner Emerging Markets Model; MSCI Inc. and S&P. MSCI Inc. and S&P do not make any View other reports at express or implied warranties or representations and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any hardingloevner.com/library GICS data contained herein. 2019 Year End Report | 1 This page intentionally left blank. 2 MARKET REVIEW 2018. The People’s Bank of China cut its bank reserve ratios three times over the course of the year and lowered its short- Emerging Markets (EMs) ended 2019 with the strongest term funding rate for the first time since 2015. Chinese state- quarterly return in almost eight years. De-escalation in owned banks were guided to increase their lending. Starting the US-China trade conflict, accommodative central bank in July, Brazil’s central bank cut its key rate four times, down policies, and easing fears of an imminent global recession to 4.5% in December, a record low. The European Central all contributed to general bullishness. For the full year, EMs Bank (ECB) lowered the interest rate on the deposit facility in gained 19%, a strong showing but considerably less than the September and restarted asset purchases in November. In the 28% return of developed markets. fourth quarter, calling it insurance against recession, the US Federal Reserve again cut interest rates, almost completely Investors began 2019 in a pessimistic mood. EMs had just reversing the rate increases of 2018. suffered their sharpest annual decline in three years at the appearance of recessionary harbingers: a flattening yield China’s economy continued to slow, but the curve, declining inflation expectations, and weak commodity resilience of its consumers, who experienced prices. As the year drew on, the US-China trade war took an increasing toll on bilateral trade and global GDP growth fore- real wage growth and benefited from targeted casts. Central banks and governments responded with fiscal fiscal policy measures, helped avert a worse and monetary support, retracing some normalizing steps of economic downturn. MARKET PERFORMANCE (USD %) Positive economic data from the US gradually dispelled fears REGION/COUNTRY 4Q 2019 TRAILING 12 MONTHS of an imminent recession in the world’s largest economy. China’s economy continued to slow, but the resilience of its AFRICA 13.0 12.6 consumers, who experienced real wage growth and benefited SOUTH AFRICA 13.2 12.1 from targeted fiscal policy measures, helped avert a worse ASIA 12.6 19.7 economic downturn. The trade war between the US and Chi- CHINA 14.7 23.7 na witnessed something of a détente late in the year, with the two parties agreeing to a limited pull-back from their en- INDIA 5.3 7.6 trenched positions. In mid-December, days before new tariffs SOUTH KOREA 13.7 13.1 were to take effect, officials announced a “Phase One” trade TAIWAN 18.0 37.7 agreement. The deal, hinted at in November, rolls back some EUROPE 13.3 33.6 US tariffs on Chinese goods while boosting Chinese purchases RUSSIA 17.1 52.7 of US energy, manufactured goods, and agricultural products. The countries also agreed on enhanced protections for intel- LATIN AMERICA 10.6 18.0 lectual property. The developments bolstered investor senti- BRAZIL 14.4 26.7 ment toward China and EMs generally. The improved global MEXICO 6.3 11.8 outlook also boosted commodity prices, including oil, which MIDDLE EAST 2.0 -1.3 ended the year trading 25% above its 12-month low. EM cur- MSCI EM INDEX 11.9 18.9 rencies strengthened against the US dollar, regaining ground lost earlier in the year. SECTOR PERFORMANCE (USD %) OF THE MSCI EM INDEX All major regions in the index posted positive returns in 2019, with emerging Europe leading the pack. The tiny SECTOR 4Q 2019 TRAILING 12 MONTHS Greek and Hungarian markets rose as investors anticipated COMMUNICATION SERVICES 9.8 10.9 a continuation of the ECB’s accommodative policies. Russia, CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY 16.8 34.3 which has relatively little exposure to global trade war issues, CONSUMER STAPLES 2.6 11.0 was the best-performing EM, advancing over 50% despite ENERGY 10.0 20.7 anemic corporate earnings growth. The country’s large state- owned enterprises soared after increasing their dividends and FINANCIALS 9.8 13.1 clarifying their payout policies. HEALTH CARE 14.7 3.8 INDUSTRIALS 7.9 7.3 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 19.0 42.6 Companies held in the portfolio during the year appear in bold type; only the first reference to a particular holding appears in bold. The portfolio is MATERIALS 12.5 6.5 actively managed therefore holdings shown may not be current. Portfolio holdings should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell any REAL ESTATE 17.7 24.2 security. It should not be assumed that investment in the security identified UTILITIES 4.3 7.9 has been or will be profitable. To request a complete list of holdings for the past year, please contact Harding Loevner. A complete list of holdings at Source: FactSet (as of December 31, 2019). MSCI Inc. and S&P. December 31, 2019 is available on page 9 of this report. 3 In Asia, the technology-heavy markets of Taiwan, China, and Strong contributions from Brazil and Colombia propelled South Korea led in the quarter, and the full year. Taiwan was Latin America. In the fall, Brazil’s parliament enacted a long- the strongest in 2019, posting a 38% return. China exhibit- overdue pension reform, which will boost the country’s fiscal ed high volatility throughout the year as trade negotiations position. Colombia’s market rose along with oil prices. Chile’s waxed and waned. But with an initial trade agreement ap- market fell amid increasing social unrest over government pearing within grasp at last, the market advanced strongly plans to privatize businesses and increase subway fares. The toward the end of the year. Chinese growth stocks signifi- severity of the protests prompted lawmakers to call a referen- cantly outperformed their value counterparts as the resilient dum on creating a new constitution. consumer and services sectors outstripped Industrials. India produced only modest returns for the quarter and the year, The Information Technology (IT), Consumer Discretionary, lagging other large EMs. Measures by the Indian government and Real Estate sectors led EMs in the fourth quarter, and in to support its ailing economy, including reducing corporate 2019 as a whole.
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