12 January 2017 Asia Pacific/Hong Kong Equity Research Energy China Oil & Gas Sector Research Analysts SECTOR FORECAST Horace Tse 852 2101 7379
[email protected] 2017: A year of second-phase recovery Jessie Xu 852 2101 7650
[email protected] Figure 1: Chinese Oils typically see expansion of multiples during upcycle (Rebased to 100) EV/EBITDA (x) 300 6.5 6.0 250 Oil price trend - 2016-17 vs 2009-11 5.5 +1STD: 5.3x 5.0 200 4.5 Avg: 4.2x 4.0 150 3.5 3.0 -1STD: 3.2x 100 2.5 CNOOC 2.0 50 1.5 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-16 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, company data, Credit Suisse estimates ■ Accelerated oil market rebalancing post OPEC deal. We believe the OPEC cut effective from January, coupled with robust 1.5mb/d global oil demand growth, should induce 400mbs of inventory drawdown in 2017 and accelerate the global oil market rebalance. CS forecasts US$56/bbl Brent in 2017, with upside risk if OPEC adheres to the 32.5mb/d low-end output cut. Since the announcement of the OPEC deal, oil prices were up 22% and global peers have rallied 12%, but Chinese Oils, particularly CNOOC, have lagged. We expect a reversal of the underperformance trend. ■ Multiple catalysts ahead. (1) We think the market is too bearish on CNOOC’s production/reserves and its upcoming 2017 Strategy Preview could surprise on the upside.