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RTI18/028 page 1 Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project Strategic Business Case Version 0.3 - 18 January 2019 Working Draft Council RELEASE Coast RTI Sunshine RTI18/028 page 2 Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project Strategic Business Case CONTENTS Chapter 1 – Executive Summary………………………………………………………..4 Chapter 2 – Introduction and Background……………………………………..……18 Chapter 3 – Strategic Context and Rationale……………………………………..…38 Chapter 4 – Service Need…………………...……………………………………..……56 Chapter 5 – Benefits Sought……………….……………………………………..…….66 Chapter 6 – Strategic Responses………….……………………………………..……73 Chapter 7 – Initiative Identification and Analysis………….…………………….….77 Chapter 8 – Preliminary Stakeholder Analysis.………….…………………………..88 Chapter 9 – Conclusions and Recommendations………….………..………..…….97 Chapter 10 – Preliminary Business Case Planning..………….…………………...103 Glossary of Terms...………………………………….……………………………..…...114 Reference List………………………………………………………………………..…...119 Council RELEASE Coast RTI Sunshine CONTENTS PAGE 3 RTI18/028 page 3 Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project Strategic Business Case 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1 Conclusions and recommendations Key conclusions and recommendations from the Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project Strategic Business Case (SBC) development process include: • The Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project is an integrated land use and transport project. The Investment Logic Map (ILM) has demonstrated the importance of taking an integrated land and use and transport planning approach to develop the Project to address problems and service needs, realise benefits and enable strategic responses. • Seventeen current and potential initiatives were identified and assessed in the SBC. The assessment of the initiatives showed that: o Whilst the eight current initiatives identified will not meet service needs in themselves, they should continue to be developed as part of current planning and project development processes1. o A land use only potential initiative will not adequately address the problems nor fully realise identified benefits. However, in order to achieve the urban renewal project objectives, a land use strategy must support a preferred mass transit solution o Implementation of road demand management strategies and major upgrades to road network potential initiatives would also not in themselves be sufficient to meet key land use objectives, in particular urbanCouncil renewal outcomes in the coastal corridor. o A range of infrastructure based potential initiatives were comparatively assessed and subjected to a strategic merit test to determine the potential transport outcomes eachRELEASE initiative could deliver, and the performance of each initiative against the project objectives.Coast The infrastructure initiatives that provide coverage along the coastal areas of the Sunshine Coast region from Maroochydore toRTI Caloundra, as well as inland connections through greenfield developments and connecting to the existing passenger rail network perform best against the project objectives. Given the number of key activity centres and current traffic movements, the coastal corridor between Kawana and Maroochydore has the highest requirement for urban renewal and increased transit amenity.Sunshine • The Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Preliminary Business Case (PBC) should focus on a mass transit solution (either light rail or bus rapid transit2) in the Maroochydore to Kawana coastal corridor, with safeguarding for network extensions and/or connections to potential future mass transit solutions in the southern coastal corridor between Kawana to Caloundra, as well as the inland corridors between Beerwah and the Sunshine Coast Airport. 1 These initiatives will form the ‘without project’ case against which a ‘with project’ case can be measured. 2 Based on previous analysis completed by Council, a range of mass transit technologies such as heavy rail, elevated rail and monorail are considered to be unfeasible for the coastal corridor. CHAPTER 1 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 RTI18/028 page 4 Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project Strategic Business Case 1.2 Background The Sunshine Coast region is approximately 100 kilometres north of Brisbane and covers an area from Beerburrum, the Glass House Mountains and Caloundra in the south, Kenilworth and the Connondale National Park to the west, and Eumundi and Peregian and in the north. During the past 30 years, the Sunshine Coast region has experienced significant population growth and urban development, and now represents a regional economy worth more than $15 billion3. The region has a number of major economic centres including Maroochydore, Kawana and Caloundra. The current region’s population of 303,000 in 2016 is projected to grow to 518,000 by 2041. In the same period, employment is projected to grow from 118,000 to 195,0004. In order to support this growth, the 2017 South East Queensland Regional Plan (ShapingSEQ) forecasts dwellings to grow by 87,000 by 2041, and this plan requires that 63 per cent of future development in the Sunshine Coast region is to be consolidation/infill development. The Bruce Highway runs through the western side of Sunshine Coast region, with a number of highly utilised Queensland Government-controlled roads providing access from the Bruce Highway to the coastal areas of the Sunshine Coast, namely Caloundra Road, Sunshine Motorway and Maroochydore Road. Other key routes providing connections throughout the coastal region between Caloundra and Maroochydore include Nicklin Way, Kawana Way, Aerodrome Road and Alexandra Parade. They are supported by approximately 30 bus routes, taxi, Home and Community Care/Aged Care transport services, Council Link services, school buses and tourist shuttle/bus services. Inter-Councilregional connectivity is provided by the Bruce Highway and the North Coast rail line. Currently, approximately 90 per cent of trips that originate within the Sunshine Coast region will finish at a location within the region.RELEASE 5 per cent of trips will travel south towards Brisbane and the Moreton Bay region and the remaining Coast5 per cent of trips will travel north and west of the region5. Table 1.1 provides a snapshotRTI of the key demographics, economic and employment statistics and transport elements of the Sunshine Coast region. Sunshine Coast Regional Snapshot Key demographics 2016 2041 Growth Population Sunshine303,600 518,000 214,400 (approximately 70%) Employment 118,000 195,000 77,000 (approximately 65%) Dwellings 126,000 213,000 87,000 (approximately 65%) Economic statistics ShapingSEQ infill target • 63% (approximately 54,000 dwellings) Gross Regional Product • $15.74 billion in 2017-18, equating to approximately 5% of Queensland’s economy Gross Regional Product • 2.8% per annum over past 10 years growth (Queensland average was 1.9%) 3 National Instructure of Economic and Industry Research – nieir.com.au 4 Queensland Government Statistician’s Office regional population and employment projections – qgso.qld.gov.au 5 Sunshine Coast Council SCIMM demographic forecasts for 2041 and VLC preliminary external trip modelling (2018) CHAPTER 1 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 RTI18/028 page 5 Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project Strategic Business Case Sunshine Coast Regional Snapshot Major employment • Health care and social assistance sectors • Construction, • Education and training, • Retail • Accommodation and food services Major employment • Maroochydore centres • Kawana • Caloundra Transport elements Major transport routes • Bruce Highway • Caloundra Road • Sunshine Motorway • Maroochydore Road • Nicklin Way • Aerodrome Road • Alexandra Parade Major public transport • North Coast Rail Line services • Approximately 30 bus routes Transport trip • 90% intra-regional origin/destination trips (contained within destinations Sunshine Coast) • 5% trips with southern destinationCouncil (Moreton Bay or Brisbane) • 5% trips with northern or western destination (Noosa or Gympie) Table 1.1 – Key demographics, economic statistics and transport elements for the Sunshine Coast region RELEASE 1.3 Investment logic map Coast An ILM process was completed for the Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project, which identified high level service needs,RTI benefits sought, strategic responses and seventeen current and potential initiatives. These service needs, benefits sought, strategic responses and initiatives are discussed in the following sections. 1.4 Service need andSunshine urgency Service needs identified in the ILM include: • lack of a mass transit system to support integrated regional outcomes to drive greater sustainability, accessibility and productivity • limited appetite for urban renewal within the region, likely driven by high levels of greenfield development and take-up • growing levels of road congestion on key arterial roads within the Sunshine Coast region, resulting in increasing costs of congestion • low levels of public transport mode share, with current public transport options considered uncompetitive compared to private vehicles. As these problems are currently occurring and are forecast to be further exacerbated, early intervention will be critical, particularly in relation to driving alternative land use outcomes. The demand for accessibility to jobs and other economic centres in the Sunshine Coast CHAPTER 1 – EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6 RTI18/028 page 6 Sunshine Coast Mass Transit Project Strategic Business Case Enterprise Corridor will increase, driving the urgency for a solution that can move people within this corridor, as well as induce housing demand and take-up