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The Latin American Drug Trade Scope, Dimensions, Impact, and Response Peter Chalk Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited PROJECT AIR FORCE The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Control Number: 2011927970 ISBN 978-0-8330-5179-0 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Transnational crime remains a particularly serious problem in Latin America, affecting numerous states both in and beyond the region and having severe repercussions for political, economic, and human secu- rity. Although a range of issues confront policymakers and decision- makers, most are, in some way or another, connected with the drug trade. This monograph examines the scope and dimensions of cocaine and heroin production emanating from Latin America; the main meth- ods and routes that are used to ship narcotics between source, transit, and consumption countries; and the principal consequences that are associated with this particular manifestation of transnational crime. This monograph is based on research conducted during fiscal years 2009 and 2010 as part of a study, “U.S. Security Roles in Latin America,” that identified and analyzed the major security trends in Latin America and the implications of regional developments for the stability of friendly states and broader U.S. interests. The research reported here was sponsored by the Deputy Director for Operational Planning, Policy and Strategy, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Plans and Requirements, Headquarters U.S. Air Force (HQ USAF/A5X), and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Cor- poration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and devel- iii iv The Latin American Drug Trade: Scope, Dimensions, Impact, and Response opment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the devel- opment, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Train- ing; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: http://www.rand.org/paf/ Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. vii Tables .............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix Abbreviations .................................................................... xxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO Production and Trafficking Routes ........................................... 3 Cocaine .............................................................................. 3 Opiates ............................................................................. 13 CHAPTER THREE Main Players ...................................................................... 15 Colombia ........................................................................... 15 Peru and Bolivia .................................................................. 23 Mexico ............................................................................. 24 Africa and Europe ................................................................ 30 CHAPTER FOUR Trafficking Vessels ............................................................... 33 Fishing Trawlers ................................................................... 33 Go-Fasts ........................................................................... 34 v vi The Latin American Drug Trade: Scope, Dimensions, Impact, and Response Self-Propelled Semisubmersibles ................................................ 35 CHAPTER FIVE Impact .............................................................................. 39 South America and Central America ........................................... 39 The United States ................................................................ 46 CHAPTER SIX U.S. Responses ................................................................... 59 CHAPTER SEVEN Implications and Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force ............. 67 Bibliography ...................................................................... 71 Figures 2.1. Mexican Drug-Trafficking Routes .................................. 6 2.2. Colombian Cocaine-Trafficking Routes Direct to Europe ...... 7 2.3. Colombian Cocaine Routes to Europe via West Africa .......... 9 2.4. Peruvian and Bolivian Cocaine Routes to Europe ............... 12 2.5. Peruvian and Bolivian Cocaine Routes to Europe via West Africa .................................................................. 12 vii Tables 2.1. Colombian Coca Cultivation and Potential Cocaine Production, 2005–2009.............................................. 4 2.2. Peruvian Coca Cultivation and Potential Cocaine Production, 2005–2007.............................................. 4 2.3. Bolivian Coca Cultivation and Potential Cocaine Production, 2005–2007.............................................. 5 2.4. Comparative Estimated Values of Latin American Cocaine Exports to Consumers in North America and Europe ........... 8 2.5. Cocaine Seizures in Venezuela, 2000–2007 ...................... 11 2.6. Colombian Poppy Cultivation and Potential Heroin Production, 2005–2009............................................. 14 2.7. Mexican Poppy Cultivation and Potential Heroin Production, 2005–2009............................................. 14 3.1. Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia Blocs and Geographical Areas of Influence ................................... 16 5.1. General Trafficking Routes, Known Waypoints from U.S.-Mexico Border into Mexico ................................. 50 5.2. Weapons Known to Be Trafficked from the United States to Mexico ............................................................. 52 5.3. Popular Weapon Prices, Tucson Gun Show, March 2009 ..... 54 ix Summary Drug Production and Trafficking Colombia currently accounts for the vast bulk of cocaine produced in Latin America. In 2009, the country produced 270 metric tons (MT) of cocaine, making it the principal supplier for both the United States and the worldwide market. Besides Colombia,