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On Balance Weekly Notes for May 6 to 10, 2019

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On Balance Weekly Notes for May 6 to 10, 2019 Philstocks Research Weekly Notes JUSTINO B. CALAYCAY, JR 06 May 2019 AVP-Head, Research & Engagement (632)588-1962 OUR VIEW: JAPHET LOUIS O TANTIANGCO Sr. Research Analyst Anticipated rate cuts signal a strong buy on property and consumer retail issues (632)588-1927 given their advantages amid a loose monetary environment. Avoid banks as lower borrowing costs may reduce net interest margins. PIPER CHAUCER E TAN Property stocks (DMW, HOUSE, MEG, SMPH and ALI) Engagement Officer/Research Consumer Retail (URC , FB, WLCON, MRSGI and JFC) Associate (632)588-1928 Possible Catalyst for th3 week : Q1 2019 GDP, April Inflation, and BSP policy rate meeting CLAIRE T ALVIAR PSEi may trade within the 7900- 8200 range with upward bias on Research Associate economic data Ground Floor, East Tower PSE Center, Tektite Towers MARKET WRAP: Ortigas Center, Pasig City PHILIPPINES S&P’s upgrade on the Philippines’ credit rating sent local stocks higher by DISCLAIMER 99.70 points or 1.27% w/w to 7,967.98. The opinion, views and Average value turnover widened by 8.24% w/w to P7.283 billion. Gainers recommendations contained in this rout losers 110 to 101. material were prepared by the Philstocks Research Team, Industrials led the sectors, climbing 3.81%. Miners were the main individually and separately, based laggards, falling 0.79%. on their specific sector assignments, contextual framework, personal Universal Robina Corporation [PSE: URC] led the index, surging 17.52%. judgments, biases and prejudices, Bloomberry Resorts Corporation [PSE: BLOOM] landed on bottom, sliding time horizons, methods and other 5.55%. factors. The reader is enjoined to take this into account when perusing For all shares, Phinma Energy Corporation [PSE: PHEN] advanced the most and considering the contents of the by 18.06%. Keppel Philippines Holdings, Inc. B [PSE: KPHB] declined the report as a basis for their stock most by 15.40%. investment or trading decisions. Furthermore, projection made and Peso strengthened to 51.86 per Dollar. presented in this report may change or be updated in between the periods of release. Ergo, the validity OVERSEAS MARKETS: of the projections and/or estimates mentioned are good as of the date indicated and may be changed Strong employment figures kept S&P 500 and NASDAQ in green. without immediate notification. This report is primarily intended for Asian stocks closed mixed while anticipating for the US jobs data. information purposes only and should not be considered as an exclusive basis for making LOCAL NEWS: investment decision. The recommendations contained in this report is not tailored-fit any April Manufacturing PMI Slowest in 9 Months. Sluggish output and new export particular investor type, situation, orders dragged the Philippines manufacturing growth to 9 month lows in April at or objective and must not be taken as such. Determining the suitability 50.9. This came from a 51.5 print in March. Despite the slowdown, the Philippines’ of an investment remains within the PMI bested the ASEAN region’s average of 50.4. province of the investor. Our estimates are based on information we believe to be reliable. Our View: The PMI is in line with the country’s Monthly Integrated Survey of Nevertheless, nothing in this report shall be construed as an offer of a 1|P a g e guarantee of a return of any kind and at any time. Philstocks Research 2019 Selected Industries with the production index declining 5.5% in value, and 8.5% in volume y/y last February 2019. In 2018, manufacturing comprised 23.30% of the country’s total GDP. A decline in manufacturing activities will drag the Philippines’ overall productivity. LOCAL HIGHLIGHTS: March budget deficit narrowed by 47.23% y/y and 23.52% m/m amid budget impasse. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas pencils April inflation within the 2.7 - 3.5 percent with upward pressures coming from oil and electricity prices. March Domestic liquidity growth declines to 4.2%, slowest since September 2012. Bank lending growth decelerated to 9.3% S&P Global Ratings upgrades Philippine debt grade from BBB to BBB+ GLOBAL NEWS: US Unemployment Lowest Since 1969. US April employment figures came in strong with job creation reaching 263,000. Unemployment rate also hit 3.6%, the lowest since December 1969. Including the underemployed and discouraged workers, unemployment rate stood at 7.3%. Non-labor force portion of the population increased by 646,000 to 96.2 million. Our View: The strong job creation and high employment rate would lead to more incomes. This would drive up consumption and possibly investment which in turn would strengthen the US’s economy. The additional incomes could also be a source of funds and positive sentiment which would bolster the US and other equity markets around the world especially those from emerging economies. GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS: April 2019 China Caixin/Markit factory Purchasing Managers’ Index declined from 50.8 to 50.2. Non Manufacturing PMI also declined from 54.8 to 54.3. The Fed keeps rates unchanged at 2.25 to 2.50 percent, tempers rate cut expectations. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington as talks resume. US - China trade deal could be up this week. COMPANY UPDATES: Merger by and between iPeople and of AC Education takes effect May 2, 2019. Philippine National Bank (PNB) allots about P4 billion in capital expenditures (capex) for this year. Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. (AEV) reported a 27% decline in 1Q19 consolidated net income to P3.5 billion from P4.8 billion. Universal Robina Corporation [PSE:URC] Philstocks On-Balance View: BUY Initial Target Price: P175 URC posted financial results for the first quarter of 2019 Revenue grew by 7% to P33.3 billion from P31.2 billion coming from businesses in the Philippines. Improvement of performance from all categories brought domestic revenues climbed by 11% to 15.6 billion URC net income increased by 3.3% to P3.1 billion in 1Q19 from P3 billion same period last year. It was driven by higher operating income supported by higher sales volume and average selling prices. 2|P a g e Philstocks Research 2019 According to URC President, URC focused on execution and sustaining what they have achieved. They also expect to hold or slightly improve operating margins for the year. URC announced plans to reduce packaging footprint and make 60% of packaging recyclable. Our View : URC shares' price last thursday were up by 7.68% as the market digested its increase in revenue and net income. It would further increase throughout the year if the company could sustain its growth and margins as they mentioned. It could be a good catalyst to support an uptrend since its share price were declining last year. 3|P a g e Philstocks Research 2019 TABLES & CHARTS WEEKLY MARKET STATS INDEX VALUE PTS PCT YTD % PSEI 7,967.98 99.70 1.27% 6.72% ALL 4,906.06 49.71 1.02% 8.59% FIN 1,774.46 30.67 1.76% -0.30% IND 11,832.10 434.79 3.81% 8.04% HDG 7,592.28 56.62 0.75% 3.41% PRO 4,273.31 (19.01) -0.44% 17.79% SVC 1,614.45 28.72 1.81% 11.90% M&O 7,738.36 (61.98) -0.79% -5.64% INTERNALS TOTAL VALUE 29,131,840,587.67 ADV 110 AVERAGE VALUE 7,282,960,146.92 DEC 101 BLOCK 2,794,752,908.96 UNCH 35 TOP 5 GAINERS TOP 5 LOSERS URC 17.52% BLOOM -5.55% ICT 9.19% AEV -5.45% MEG 4.14% MPI -4.81% BDO 3.73% AP -4.01% Net Foreign Transactions GTCAP 3.49% MBT -2.31% Top 5 Net Foreign Buying Top 5 Net Foreign Selling US INDICES ALI 5,253,094,295.00 AC (3,565,317,907.50) INDEX VALUE PTS PCT YTD % DJIA 26,504.95 (38.38) -0.14% 13.62% ICT 5,196,502,215.00 VLL (2,364,313,251.00) S&P 500 2,945.64 5.76 0.20% 17.50% SMPH 5,098,281,040.00 MBT (1,978,673,943.50) NASDAQ 8,164.00 17.60 0.22% 23.04% JGS 2,669,655,913.50 BPI (1,288,039,588.50) ASIAN MARKETS MEG 2,469,452,925.00 MPI (1,116,542,947.00) N225 CLOSED Hang Seng 30,081.55 476.54 1.61% 16.39% Shanghai 3,078.34 (8.06) -0.26% 23.43% KOSPI 2,196.32 17.01 0.78% 7.61% HCM 974.14 (5.50) -0.56% 9.14% SET 1,679.05 11.90 0.71% 7.36% STI 3,392.29 35.34 1.05% 10.54% KLCI 1,637.30 (1.08) -0.07% -3.15% JCI 6,319.46 (81.62) -1.28% 2.02% COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES Brent Crude 70.85 -1.80% WTI Crude 61.94 -2.15% Gold 1281.30 -0.58% Silver 14.98 -0.73% Copper 281.90 -2.59% US$:Php 51.86 -0.48% 4|P a g e Philstocks Research 2019 .
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