中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn

Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

Research on the spatial structure of crude oil flow and the characteristics of its flow field in China

Yuan ZhaoÃ, Li-Sha Hao, Lu Wan

College of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, 1 Wenyuan Road, Nanjing 210046, PR China

Received 19 April 2006; accepted 29 March 2007 Available online 15 June 2007

Abstract

Crude oil flow is a sort of oil spatial movement, and in China, it is large scale and covers wide area with extensive social-economic effects. This paper analyses the spatial structure of crude oil flow in China, the characters of its flow field and the layout of its flow track. The results show that oil flow in China has a spatial characteristic of centralized output and decentralized input; its spatial structure is composed of Source System in the shape of right-angled triangle, Confluence System in the shape of right-angled trapezium and Multiplex System in the shape of obtuse-angled triangle, which are mutually nested, and on a whole, the presence of Multiplex System balances and optimizes the flow layout; oil flow field in China can be divided into four parts, i.e. the North, North-west, East and South Field, two or three of which overlap with each other, extending the oil flow and making the flow more flexible and maneuverable; oil flow track is a multi-objective decision-making route and in the decision-making process oil transportation cost is one of the essential factors, in China, oil flow track falls into the Northeast, North, East, Northwest and South five cluster regions, which connect with each other, and series–parallel connection between various kinds of transportation channels is widely seen in them, reinforcing the supply security of crude oil. r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Crude oil flow; Spatial structure; Flow track

1. Introduction As a kind of spatial quasi-flow system, the large-scale oil flow covers the whole process of oil production, transpor- Crude oil flow is a sort of oil spatial movement between tation, processing and consumption. In researches on oil producing area, oil consumption area and their various kinds of spatial quasi-flow system, Berman and intermediary area that interact on each other. In china, Krass (1998) emphasized the existence of the intercepting crude oil interregional flow, largely from the west to the flow, and proposed a flow intercepting spatial interaction east and from the north to the south, is a kind of wide area, model for a optimal location of competitive facilities; Li large-scale spatial phenomenon with extensive social- and Zhao (2005) discussed the target-ward characteristic of economic effects; besides, in 2004, the total amount of resource spatial flow and its dynamic mechanism; Liu import and export of crude oil in China also reached 128 (2004) abstracted the spatial structure of logistics economy million tons (Li, 2005), which conjoins with the domestic in China by empirical analysis, and quantificationally flow, enlarges the scale of the whole crude oil flow and analyzed the spatial characteristics of central logistic cities makes it more complex. in each province (municipality or autonomous region), the main link routes and the relation bound of interregional goods flows; Rodrigo (2000) researches about the spatial interaction between the truck flows through the Mexico– Ã Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 025 51968668; Texas border; Zhang and Gu (2002) probed into the spatial fax: +86 025 83598213. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] characteristics of the recent interprovincial movement of (Y. Zhao), [email protected], [email protected] (L.S. Hao), social-economic resources in China, analyzed the asymme- [email protected] (L. Wan). try in the layout of resource flow, and pointed out its three

0301-4215/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2007.03.022 转载 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn 5036 Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 regional nucleus, four basic types of spatial forms and two flow and the interrelationships between them in provinces kinds of spatial patterns; Zhang et al. (2005) investigated (municipalities or autonomous regions) where oil flows. the spatial field effect of domestic tourist flow, analyzed the Given the fact that the paper is designed to study in the correlation of its spatial network, and pointed out how to general balance relationship of oil resource in flow and that rationalize tourist flow directions and to optimize the the crude oil in China is mainly used for processing, any allocation of its volume; Zhao (2004) constructed an kind of oil loss and the specific use structure of crude oil are international logistics flow model and especially analyzed not taken into account in the balance equations. As such, the port–hinterland relationship of several seaports. As to the equations are: the studies on oil flow, most contemporaneous scholars C ¼ P þ B þ Ip Op , (1) focused on the allocation plan of oil resource in certain i i i i i regions and the optimization design of the local units of oil Ip ¼ Idi þ Imi (2) transportation route system. For instance, Jiang (2004) i proposed to accelerate the construction of large oil berths Opi ¼ Odi þ Oti (3) and to form a new layout of crude oil transportation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River; Lv (1994) In Eq. (1), Ci is the crude oil consumption in a certain analyzed the allocation structure of home and imported oil period in region i; Pi is the oil production of the in China; Mu(1999) demonstrates the optimization design corresponding period in region i; Bi is the change in oil of oil transportation structure in the West China; Xue and stock (plus refers to decrease, minus refers to increase); Ipi Hu (2002) researched the operation strategy of SINOPEC’s is oil input, Opi is oil output; crude oil pipe laying network; Yang (2003) discussed the In Eq. (2), Ipi is oil input, Idi is interregional oil input, optimization plan of the crude oil allocation in China; Imi is oil import; in Eq. (3), Opi is oil output, Odi is Zheng (1999) approached the reasonable flow structure of interregional oil output, Oti is oil export. Table 1 is thus obtained according to the balance Nanyang crude oil. Obviously, the oil allocation and route 1 design should be based on the overall understanding of the equations. spatial layout of oil flow. It can be seen from Table 1 that there is an interregional As the oil resource flow in China becomes more and oil flow or international one in all of the 27 provinces more nationwide and globalization, its volume, spatial (municipalities or autonomous regions) except Ningxia scale and effect scope are expanding in an unprecedented Autonomous Region in 2003. rate. In consequence, we should study the macro-structure To further analyze the supply–demand relation and flow of oil flow and the characteristics of oil flow field in order balance type of oil resource in regions, the oil self- to thoroughly understand the spatial allocation of oil sufficiency rate is adopted, i.e. the ratio between produc- resource and the evolution trend of oil flow in China, to tion and consumption, to determine whether and how the make with the optimization design of oil flow process and oil resource will flow. The expression of self-sufficiency rate its spatial structure, and to ensure the oil supply in China. is Therefore, this paper analyzes the spatial structure of oil Pi Si ¼ 100%. (4) flow, the characteristics of oil flow field and the flow track Ci in China, taking province (municipality or autonomous Thereinto, S is the self-sufficiency rate of region i in a region) as the basic analysis unit on the basis of 2003’ i given period, P is the oil production of region i in Energy Balance Table by Region in China, so as to lay a i corresponding period, C is the oil consumption of Region i good foundation for further exploring its evolution trend i in corresponding period. and devising the optimization plan of oil resource flow. The self-sufficiency ratios of 26 regions in China are Oil resource flow can be divided into crude oil flow and listed in Table 2. refined oil flow, and the forming mechanism and allocation Various oil balancing types can be got according to the processes of them are quite different from each other. This regional oil self-sufficiency rate. paper analyzes only crude oil flow (the term of oil flow in In theory, when the following text represents crude oil flow). E E 2. Flowing balancing of crude oil resource in China Si 100%, i.e. Pi Ci, region i is a almost self- sufficiency region; E E Oil flow is a spatial process of dynamic balance between Si 50%, i.e. Pi 2Ci, region i is a half self-sufficiency regional supply and demand of oil resource. It represents one; itself in two basic types of locomotion: oil inflow and oil Sio50%, i.e. PiooCi, region i is a net ingathering one; outflow. The spatial layout of interregional supply–de- Si4100%, i.e. Pi44Ci, region i is a net payout one. mand balancing of oil resource provides a basic layout of 1The data in Table 1 are selected from 2003’ Energy Balance Table by oil flow. Region in China in China Energy Statistics Yearbook 2004 (Department of With constructing oil balance equations, this paper Industry and Transport Statistics and Energy Bureau, 2005. China analyzes the crude oil production, oil consumption, oil Statistics Press, Beijing, pp. 146–265). 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 5037

Table 1 Balance equations of crude oil flow by region in China (2003’/104 t)

Region (i) Consumption Production (Pi) Change in Input (Ipi) Output (Opi) (Ci) Stocks (Bi) Interregional Import (Imi) Interregional Export (Oti) input (Idi) output (Odi)

China 25 187.1 16 960 61.6 — 9102 — 813.3 Beijing 720.47 0 0 685 35.47 0 0 Tianjin 758.45 1316.3 0 68.42 240.57 761.98 104.86 Hebei 835.19 510.02 5.18 156.94 230.96 67.91 0 Inner 128.83 92.34 5.34 54.05 0 12.22 0 Mongolia Liaoning 4560.41 1332.22 122.48 3131.35 573.04 30 326.72 Jilin 885.15 476.4 1.9 410.65 0 0 0 Heilongjiang 1619.14 4840.12 1.82 124 213.68 3368.7 188.14 Shanghai 1737.51 38.02 2.18 414.54 1295.89 13.12 0 Jiangsu 1714.54 166.35 17.98 792.95 781.58 8.36 0 Zhejiang 1425.16 0 13.11 327.55 1110.72 0 0 Anhui 334.69 0 1.3 216.19 119.8 0 0 Fujian 362.62 0 3.81 366.43 0 0 0 Jiangxi 314.59 0 14.39 187.04 141.94 0 0 Shandong 2213.97 2666 8.03 333.2 548.4 1341.66 0 Henan 635.77 547.57 1.5 131.97 103.62 148.89 0 Hubei 637.14 77.53 4.37 555.24 0 0 0 Hunan 507.82 0 12.25 304.67 215.4 0 0 Guangdong 2095.15 1275.7 41 0 1455.38 594.93 0 Guangxi 66.64 3.28 0.92 64.28 0 0 0 Hainan 31.6 0 0.8 30.8 0 0 0 Chongqing 0.27 0 0 0.27 0 0 0 Sichuan 75.67 14 0.05 61.62 0 0 0 Shanxi 869.97 1254.49 9.77 68 0 462.29 0 Gansu 1017.98 255.86 1.66 763.78 0 0 0 Qinghai 66.57 220.02 0 0 0 153.45 0 Ningxia 221.6 221 0.6 0 0 0 0 Sinkiang 1189.14 2141.39 2.72 0 29 983.97 0

Source: arranged according to 2003’ Energ Balance Table by Region in China, China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2004.

Table 2 Self-sufficiency ratio of crude oil by region in China (2003’/%)

Region Beijing Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Hunan Hainan Chong-qing Shanghai

Si 000000002 Region Guangxi Jiangsu Hubei Sichuan Gansu Liaoning Jilin Hebei Guang-dong

Si 51012192529546161 Region Inner Mongolia Henan Shandong Shanxi Tianjin Sinkiang Heilongjiang Qinghai

Si 72 86 120 144 174 180 299 331

Source: calculated according to 2003’ Energ Balance Table by Region in China, China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2004.

According to the actual supply–demand condition tendency of oil inflow. There are few net payout regions in of the crude oil resource in the 26 regions, we define China: Tianjin, Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Qinghai and Sin- regions of 60%oSip120% as almost self-sufficiency ones, kiang, which have a big surplus in regional oil resources 40%pSip60% as half self-sufficiency ones, Sio40% as and the highest tendency of oil outflow, especially net ingathering ones and Si4120% as net payout ones. Heilongjiang and Sinkiang. A resource gap of about 50% The regional oil balancing types of oil resource in China exists in half self-sufficiency region, Jilin, which has are thus obtained (Table 3). developed oil refining and petrochemical industries, thus It can be seen from Table 3 that there are 15 provinces a relatively high tendency of oil inflow exists in it. The (municipalities or autonomous regions) in China that are almost self-sufficiency provinces such as Hebei, Inner net ingathering type. In these regions oil resource is scarce, Mongolia, Henan and Guangdong have a small gap in whereas they have a developed social economy, as well as a oil resource and a certain tendency of oil inflow, but they big consumption of crude oil, thus they have the highest all have a relatively large-scale crude oil production except 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn 5038 Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050

Table 3 Balance types of oil flow by region in China (2003)

Region Beijing Zhejiang Anhui Fujian Jiangxi Hunan Balance type Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Region Hainan Chongqing Shanghai Guangxi Jiangsu Hubei Balance type Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Region Sichuan Gansu Liaoning Jilin Hebei Guangdong Balance type Net ingathering Net ingathering Net ingathering Half self-support Almost self- Almost self- sufficiency sufficiency Region Inner Mongolia Henan Shandong Shanxi Tianjin Sinkiang Balance type Almost self- Almost Self- Almost self- Net payout Net payout Net payout sufficiency sufficiency sufficiency Region Heilongjiang Qinghai Balance type Net payout Net payout

for Inner Mongolia, so they also have a certain potential to Thereinto, Opi is the oil output of region i in a certain sent out crude oil, and they will probably change types period; Ipi is the oil input in region i in corresponding from input regions to input–output multiplex regions; period. similarly, Shandong as another almost self-sufficiency The bigger the E value is, the more notable the province has a little surplus in oil resource, but as the dispersion between regional outflow and inflow will be; in second biggest petrochemical industry center in China, detailed words, the more closer to 100% the E1i value is, Shandong has a large number of oil consumption, so it the more largely the tendency of regional inflow exceed the may also change types from input region to input–output one of outflow, thus the region belongs to input center; multiplex region. Therefore, as to almost self-sufficiency the more closer to 100% the E2i value is, the more largely regions which have large-scale oil production and demand, the tendency of regional outflow exceed the one of inflow, the specific functions they play in oil flow should be thus the region belongs to output center; contrarily, the determined by the quantitative relationship of their actual smaller the E value is, the more equal the tendency of inflow and outflow. regional outflow and inflow will be, thus the region belongs to exchanging center. 3. Oil flow functions of various regions in China According to the liquidity margin ratio, the flow functions of the five almost self-sufficiency regions in In principle, the process of oil flow contains three main China fall into two types (Table 4). phases: outflow, conduction and inflow. Oil flow function The E1i value of Hebei and Inner Mongolia are, referstothephaseatwhichacertainregionplacesitselfinthe respectively, 82% and 77%, where the tendency of oil whole process of oil flow, that is whether the region is to inflow to replenish is stronger than the one of outflow, thus mainly send out oil, or to mainly take in oil, or to play a con- the two regions belong to input centers in the main. ductive role. In China, according to the quantitative relation- The E1i value of Henan and Guangdong are, respec- ship of oil outflow and inflow in regions, there are three basic tively, 37% and 59%, and the E2i value of Shandong is types of flow function, which are input center where the oil 34%, where the dispersion between the tendency of inflow inflow is much bigger than the outflow, output center where and outflow is not so notable, and there are both a large- the oil outflow is far bigger than the inflow, and exchanging scale outflow and inflow in regions, thus these three center where the inflow is almost equal to the outflow. provinces belong to exchanging centers in the main. Generally speaking, input centers are mainly net The flow functions of 26 oil flow regions in China are ingathering or half self-sufficiency type, including 16 listed in Table 5. provinces (municipalities); output centers are mainly net The reason why almost self-sufficiency provinces change payout type, including five provinces (autonomous region). types from input center or output center to exchanging However, things are more complicated in almost self- center is that transportation orientation supersedes re- sufficiency regions, whose flow function types cannot be source orientation (Rita and Ranta, 1999; Hsieh and Chen, determined only by balancing analysis. Thereby, this paper 2005). In general, in provinces with a better transportation introduces the concept of liquidity margin ratio (E), i.e. the condition, the costs to balance regional oil supply and ratio to reflect the dispersion level between oil outflow and demand by oil coming in and out are relatively cheaper. To inflow. Its expression is be specific, this can be divided into two types. One type is that the regional transportation condition is Ipi Opi advantageous for oil flow. These regions can easily become E1i ¼ 100%; ðIpi4OpiÞ, (5) Ipi oil distributing centers and can augment their trade and transportation income by converging and distributing Opi Ipi crude oil. Shandong and Guangdong are cases in example. E2i ¼ 100%; ðIpi4OpiÞ. (6) Opi Shandong is one of the most important hinge in eastern oil 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 5039

Table 4 Liquidity margin ratio and the flow functions of crude oil flow in several regions of China (2003)

Region Hebei Inner Mongolia Henan Shandong Guangdong

Liquidity margin ratio/% 0 60 110 149 432 Flow function Input center Exchanging center Exchanging center Exchanging center Output center

Table 5 Flow function of 26 oil flow regions in China (2003)

Region Flow function Region Flow function Region Flow function

Beijing Input center Zhejiang Input center Guangxi Input center Tianjin Output center Anhui Input center Hainan Input center Hebei Input center Fujian Input center Chongqing Input center Inner Mongolia Input center Shandong Exchanging center Guangdong Exchanging center Liaoning Input center Henan Exchanging center Shanxi Output center Jilin Input center Jiangxi Input center Gansu Input center Heilongjiang Output center Hubei Input center Qinghai Output center Shanghai Input center Hunan Input center Sinkiang Output center Jiangsu Input center Sichuan Input center

flow network, in which is located the famous Huangdao Oil Hainan Province, thus the three-dimension oil flow net- Port. As the biggest and most advanced oil export-and- work in Southwest China is formed with Zhanjiang– import center and transportation hub at present in China, Maoming as its center, and through this network imported the port can accommodate 300-thousand-tonnage ocean oil lands and local oil from West South-China-Sea Oilfield tanker to anchor, and have a throughput of 30 million t/y diffuses from Zhanjiang in three directions of north, south and a storage capacity of 1.8 million t.2 What connects with and west. In the southeast group of twin hinge ports, there Huangdao Port is a mature pipe-laying network with Linyi is the largest trade port in South China, Guangzhou Port, as its central station. From this center, pipelines stretch which completed an oil throughput of 35.06 thousand t in east about to Huangdao Port via Shengli Oilfield, west 2001, 14.4% of the throughput of all the major ports in about to Luoyang Refinery via Zhongyuan Oilfield, reach China3; its auxiliary wharf, Dayawan Port in Huizhou also Yizheng Oil Port along Yangte River in the south, and had an oil throughput of 6.46 million t in 2001 (Wang, P., connects with Cangzhou in the north, thus Shandong 2002); between Huizhou and Guangdong there is a pipe becomes an oil distributing center which disperses local and line, which joins in Guangzhou–Quanzhou sea route at imported oil to the East China, mid-China and North Guangzhou to transmit oil to Fujian Province. Thus the China, respectively. Guangdong, as the axial region of southeast oil flow network in china comes into being with crude oil production, consumption and transportation in Guangzhou–Huizhou as its center, and through this South China, has two groups of twin hinge oil ports, network imported oil lands and local oil from East Zhanjiang—Maoming and Guangzhou—Huizhou. Among South-China-Sea Oilfield flows north about to Guangdong these four ports, Zhanjiang Port has the shortest external and then turns east to Fujian. distance from the overseas oil markets—Middle East, The other type of exchanging flow takes place in regions Africa and South America on China westbound and where regional production center and consumption one are southbound ocean routes, and Zhanjiang Port also has relatively separate from each other. Although there is no five specialized oil berths including a 300-thousand- short cut between these two centers in such regions, the two tonnage oil wharf and an oil storeroom with a capacity centers are right near convenient transportation corridors, of 945 thousand m3, and its oil throughput in 2001 was 6.24 respectively; thus these regions possess an advantage of low million t, which is 2.6% of the throughput of all the major transportation cost to outpour oil production and to let oil ports in China, besides, a 250-thousand-tonnage crude oil demand be fulfilled mainly by inpour from outside, thus single buoy mooring system and a crude oil storeroom of making them an oil exchanging center. For instance, 850 thousand m3 have been recently built in Beishanling Henan Province is seated in Mid-China, and it is an Port of Maoming; furthermore, there is a pipeline important hinge where the oil flow from north to south and connecting Maoming with Zhanjiang, and in Zhanjiang the one from west to east intersect; in Henan there are two this pipeline joins up with Litang–Zhanjiang railway large oilfields: Zhongyuan in the north and Nanyang in the through which crude oil flows to Guangxi Province, and south, and the oil consumption is concentrated in the joins in Zhanjiang–Haikou sea route to transmit oil to 3The data are selected from Guangdong Statistical Yearbook 2002 2http://www.qdtrade.com/cn/gangkou/port.htm (Guangdong Bureau of Statistics, 2002. China Statistics Press, Beijing). 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn 5040 Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050

northern industry belt along Huanghe River including and Sinkiang (Fig. 1). This layout corresponds with the Puyang, Luoyang and Zhengzhou three cities, whereas the layout of main oilfields in China. The three angles of relative surplus of oil resource exists in Nanyang which is source-triangle locate, respectively, in the Northeast, North separated from the northern consumption center. There- and Northwest China, encircling the consumption centers fore, the northern consumption center, playing a role of in the northwest, northeast, east and middle of China and input center, gets its oil input partly from Northwest China radiating oil to them. through Lanzhou–Luoyang railway and inputs some (b) Confluence System: The 18 oil input centers make up overseas oil mixed with Shengli Oil yielded from Shandong of the Confluence System. According to the quantity of Province through Huangdao–Dongying—Dongying–Li- inflow, the main body of confluence system comprises nyi—Puyang–Linyi pipe lines; in the southern oil produc- Ji–Liao (Jilin–Liaoning), Jing–Ji (Beijing–Hebei), Gansu, tion center lays Weigang–Jingmen pipeline through which Jiang–Zhe–Hu (Jiangsu–Zhejiang–Shanghai) and Xiang- Nanyang oil flows to Hubei Province, thus making South E–Gan–Wan (Hunan–Hubei–Jiangxi–Anhui) five regions, Henan an output center. and they form a spatial figure like a solid right-angled trapezium (Fig. 1). This layout corresponds with the spatial 4. Spatial structure of oil flow in China and the layout of the petrochemical industry in China. The characteristics of its flow field confluence-trapezium, just like a cup, is mainly seated in the middle and east of China, congregating the oil 4.1. Spatial structure of oil flow in China radiation of source system. (c) Multiplex System: the Multiplex System of oil flow in Judging from the oil balancing types and flow functions China is composed of three exchange centers, Tianjin, of 26 regions in China, the total oil demand exceeds its Henan and Guangdong (Fig. 1), and it plays a role of supply in China; the amount of input centers is much larger transit and connection in the oil flow. The Multiplex than the amount of other types, and input centers are System appears like an obtuse-angled triangle stretching distributed in broad area while the output center are lengthwise from north to south. Shandong inhabits the relatively centralized in several northern provinces (muni- northeast corner of the triangle, abutting the right angle of cipality or autonomous region), thus the oil flow in China the source-triangle, Tianjin, and its outflow can pool shows a spatial characteristic of centralized output and efforts with the one from Tianjin to extend the radiation decentralized input. All above reflects itself in geographic range of the source system and also to strengthen the oil space as three spatial systems. supplying capacity for the eastern consumption centers; (a) Source System: The five oil output centers make up of Henan located at the obtuse angle of multiplex- triangle as the Source System of oil flow in China. The quantity of well as in the center of confluence-trapezium, and it is an outflow in Qinghai and Shanxi is far smaller than the one sub-source as well as an sub-confluence, which offsets the in Heilongjiang, Tianjin and Sinkiang. Therefore, the lack of inbuilt output center in the confluence-trapezium spatial structure of Source Systems appears like a right- and partly helps to avoid the long-distance transportation angled triangle which is composed of Heilongjiang, Tianjin of oil from the source system to several input centers,

Fig. 1. The spatial structure of crude oil flow in China (2003). 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 5041 balancing the relationship of oil supply–demand in the According to the balance equations of crude oil flow in Confluence System; Guangdong is an oil import center as China (Table 1), this paper circles out with isograms the well as an oil distributing center in South China, where the plus potential regions that have the same amount of oil oil radiation of source system does not reach, and outflow and are in the same oil producing regions, thus Guangdong assumes the role of sub-source to transport forms outflow isograms and high potential centers; as such, local oil to provinces on both its wings, i.e. Guangxi, this paper encircles with isograms the minus potential Hainan and Fujian, in order to avoid the long-distance regions that have the same amount of oil inflow and are in transportation of oil from the source system, and ensure the same oil consumer regions, thus forms inflow isograms the supply of oil in South China. On the whole, the and low potential centers (Fig. 2). It can be seen from presence of multiplex system optimizes the layout of the Fig. 2 that oil potential values are relatively high in the national oil flow. From a policy perspective, it is necessary northwest and northeast of China, high potential values to establish relevant policies to improve regional transpor- and low ones are distributed alternately, and potential tation conditions or something in order to form some new isograms densely cover the East China while it is sparse in exchange centers inside the Confluence System and outside the west half. Great flow trend from north to south exists in the Source System, which can improve the layout of oil East China, however, the total oil demand of East China flow. exceeds its supply, while in West China, the high potential values of oil resource are far bigger than the low ones, thus 4.2. Characteristics of oil flow field great gradient force of resource potential comes into being between the east and the west; besides, West China In nature, the flow of crude oil is caused by potential (Sinkiang) is the sole producing area of light crude oil in gradient of oil resource distributing in the economic space China, and consequentially it has an advantage in oil (Dong and Xie, 2001; Maric, 2001). In this research, the supply; furthermore, the market price of moderate oil potential energy of oil resource is equal to the volume of oil yielded from West China is 71–592 yuan/t lower than the flow from potential sources in terms of value. The plus price of the crude oil of similar quality yielded from East potential values refer to the volume of oil outflow, which China(e.g. Daqing and Linpan) (Tables 6 and 7, calculated describe the possibility of oil output and form a high with the prices of October 2005), this is because that the potential array in the economic space; the minus potential market price of west oil is greatly discounted considering values refer to the volume of oil inflow, which describe the high transportation cost and other incidental costs the possibility of oil input and form a low oil potential caused by oil flow from the west to the east. For example, array in the economic space. The gradient force between on the East China market, the discount of the selling price the high and low potential centers is the motive force of oil of the crude oil yielded from Xidaliya and Akekula flow. (Sinkiang) is as big as 544 yuan/t, the discount for crude

Fig. 2. The potential field of oil resource in China (2003). 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn 5042 Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050

Table 6 Possible distribution of crude oil produced by CNPC (excluding export)

Producing area Oil quality Reference oil Input center Price (yuan/t)

Benchmark Agio Market price price

Sinkiang oilfield (Sinkiang) Light Tapis Beijing, Hebei, Gansu, Sichuan, 4362 275 4087 Chongqing Moderate I Minas 3719 320 3399 Moderate II Cinta 3500 340 3160 Weighty Duri 3026 340 2686 Tu-Ha oilfield (Sinkiang) Light Tapis Beijing, Hebei, Gansu, Sichuan, 4362 275 4087 Chongqing Henan, Hubei, Inner Mongolia 4362 229 4133 Talimu oilfield (Sinkiang) Moderate I Minas Beijing, Hebei, Gansu, Sichuan, 3719 371 3348 Chongqing Henan, Hubei, Inner Mongolia 3697 221 3476 Changqing oilfield (Shanxi) Moderate I Minas Ningxia, Gansu, Sichuan, Chongqing 3719 28 3691 Inner Mongolia Loaded at 3697 6 3691 Yangshan Henan, Hubei Loaded at 3697 76 3621 Shikong Qinghai oilfield (Qinghai) Moderate I Minas Gansu, Sichuan, Chongqing 3719 297 3422 Dagang oilfield (Tianjin) Moderate II Cinta Beijing, Hebei, Liaoning 3500 28 3472 Shandong 3500 18 3482 Daqing oilfield Moderate I Minas Jilin, Liaoning, Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin 3719 28 3691 (Heilongjiang) Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Jiangsu, 3697 6 3691 Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan

Note: the prices above are at the average level of October 2005. The market prices in Table 6 are tax-exclusive.

Table 7 Possible distribution of crude oil produced by SINOPEC (excluding export)

Producing area Oil quality Reference Input center Price (yuan/t) oil Benchmark Agio Market price price

Yanqi (Sinkiang) Light Tapis Henan 4362 311 4051 Shanxi 4362 265 4097 Yakela (Sinkiang) Light Tapis Henan 4362 355 4007 Xidaliya (Sinkiang) Moderate I Minas Henan, Inner Mongolia 3643 544 3099 Akekula (Sinkiang) Moderate I Minas Henan, Inner Mongolia 3643 544 3099 Tahe (Sinkiang) Weighty Duri Henan, Inner Mongolia 2969 609 2360 Dingbian (Shanxi) Moderate I Minas Ningxia, Sichuan, Chongqing, Gansu 3697 6 3691 Ansai (Shanxi) Moderate II Cinta Henan, Hubei 3539 0 3539 Nanyang (Henan) Moderate II Cinta Hube 3421 0 3421 Linpan (Shandong) Moderate I Minas Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, 3493 0 3493 Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin 3697 6 3691 Shengli (Shandong) Moderate II Cinta Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, 3270 0 3270 Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin 3500 28 3472 Gudao (Shandong) Weighty Duri Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, 3032 0 3032 Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin 3026 28 2998

Note: the prices above are at the average level of October 2005. The market prices in Table 7 are tax-exclusive. 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 5043

Fig. 3. The flow field of crude oil in China (2003). oil yielded from Qinghai is also as big as 297 yuan/t, while the second source region is Tianjin, with Beijing, Hebei, the discount for Daqing oil sold on the East China market Liaoning and Shandong as its major conflux regions. In is only 6 yuan/t (see Tables 6 and 7).4 Therefore, the high addition, crude oil from Heilongjiang, Dalian, Tianjin is transportation cost caused by western oil flowing to East exported through Dalian Port, Qinhuangdao Port and China can be partly offset by its lower market price, which Tianjin Port, and imported oil is distributed through helps a great oil flow from the west to the east come into Dalian Port, Tianjin Port and Manzhouli Customs, with being. Liaoning, Tianjin, Hebei and Heilongjiang as their Vector field is derived from its source, and people come confluence regions. Obviously, the North Field covers the to understand how vector field works by force analysis of whole North China and most of East China, and it is a objects in the field; thus starting with the force analysis of nationwide flow field, thanks to Daqing Oilfield in the main source centers in the oil flow, we can divide oil Heilongjiang which has the top oil production in China. flow field in China into four parts, i.e. the North, North- In the Northwest Field, Sinkiang, Qinghai and Shanxi west, East and South Flow Field (Fig. 3). are the source regions, with Gansu, Sichuan, Chongqing, In the North Field, Heilongjiang is the primary source Hebei, Beijing, Henan and Hubei as its confluence regions. region, with Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, In addition, overseas oil is imported through Alashankou Hebei, Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Customs and then straightly flows to Dushanzi in Sinkiang. Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan as its conflux regions; The Northwest Field lies across the north half of China and covers part of Mid-China, which fits in with its aim to 4Market price of crude oil in China ¼ oil benchmark price+agio; the develop into a national oil and gas relay base. benchmark price is to be determined by the National Development and In the East Field, Shandong is the primary source of oil Reform Committee according to the FOB price last month of a sort of flow, with Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin, Henan, Jiangsu, crude oil of similar quality on the international market; the agio, the discount price, is to be determined through the negotiation between China Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei and Hunan as Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC) and China National Petroleum its conflux regions; the sub-source is Henan, with Hubei as Corporation (CNPC) according to the oil transportation cost, other its major conflux region. In addition, the imported oil lands incidental costs, different oil quality and market supply and demand, etc. at Ningbo Port and Huangdao Port, with Zhejiang, CNPC monopolizes the oil exploitation, processing and sales in the most Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Huan, Henan, Hebei, of the northeast, north, northwest and southwest of China, while SINOPEC monopolizes the oil exploitation, processing and sales in the Tianjin and Beijing as their conflux regions. In terms of its east, middle and south of China as well as part of the northwest and coverage area, the East Field is a regional flow field which northeast of China. is mainly in the confines of the east and north of China. 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn 5044 Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050

In the South Field, Guangdong is the domestic source of relationship of oil supply–demand and enhance the supply oil flow, with Fujian, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, security (Fath and Patten, 1999). Guangxi and Hainan as its main conflux regions; Guangzhou–Huizhou twin ports and Zhanjiang–Maoming 5. Flow track of oil resource in China twin ports are the import center, with Guangdong as its conflux region. In terms of its coverage, it is also a regional The flow track of crude oil results from multi-objective flow field mainly limited in South China. decision-making under the layout of oil exploitation, The North, Northwest and East Flow Fields overlap processing and trade, and in the decision-making process, with each other in Hebei, Beijing and Hubei, the North oil transportation cost is an essential factor under Field overlaps with the East in another seven conflux consideration. According to the layout of oil flow fields regions, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui, in China, this paper outlines the track framework of oil Jiangxi and Hunan, and the East Field also overlaps with flow (Fig. 4) by analyzing the data of domestic and the Northwest in Henan Province. So these input centers international oil trade and transportation (Chen, 2000; have two or three supply sources which reinforce each Wang, R.X., 2002), and then analyses its characteristics other, making the oil flow more flexible and maneuverable. and performance and discusses the principle of determining As to the three oil exchange centers, Shandong is one of the the route of oil inflow in order to provide a reference for sources of oil flow in the East Fields, and it also radiates oil the decision-making in optimizing the route of crude oil to the North Field; Henan is the sub-source of East Field flow. as well as a confluence of the East and Northwest Fields; It can be seen from Fig. 4 that the flow track of oil Guangdong is both a source and a conflux region of the resource in China has two obvious characteristics as South Field. Thus, not only is a single flow field extended follows: (1) the flow track spreads all over China, and it but also the interfield communication is improved, which falls into five cluster regions, i.e. the Northeast, North, makes the oil flow more flexible, and helps balance the East, Northwest and South Cluster. (2) The types of oil

Fig. 4. The flow track network of crude oil in China (2003). 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 5045

flow channels in China are diverse in form, including pipe In the East Cluster, the northwestern-most, south- laying, railway, sea route, river route and highroad. In the western-most, northeastern-most and southeastern-most Northeast and North Clusters, pipeline is the main oil flow points are, respectively, Luoyang, Yueyang, Dongying and channel, in the East and South Clusters, oil is mainly Ningbo; it links the Northeast Cluster through waterway, transported through both pipeline and waterway, and in and it also joins to the North Cluster at sea and at Linyi. the Northwest cluster the combination of railway and The oil flow track in the East Cluster appears like a III pipeline is the main way of oil transportation. with Linyi, Puyang and Nanjing as its hinges; thereinto, In the Northeast Cluster, the northernmost, easternmost, Xianyang–Luoyang railway—Puyang–Luoyang pipeline— westernmost and southernmost points are, respectively, Puyang–Linyi pipeline—Dongying–Linyi pipeline—Don- Manzhouli, Fushun, Qinhuangdao and Dalian, and the gying–Huangdao pipeline, sea route of Huangdao Port routes are densely distributed. Daqing is the root node of constitute the upper horizontal lines of the III; the sea the Northeast Cluster, whose local oil together with route of Ningbo, the Sea-into-Yangtze route and the river imported oil from Russia flows in three ways, respectively, route along Middle and Lower Yangtze paralleled by to Harbin, Tieling and Tongliao. Among them, Daqing– Yizheng–Changling (Nanjing–Yueyang) pipeline constitute Tieling pipeline is the trunk line, accounting for more than the lower horizontal lines of the III, while Linyi–Yizheng 90% of oil outflow from Daqing oilfield, and at Tieling this pipeline, Luoyang–Wuhan railway, Luoyang–Nanyang– pipeline is divided into Tieling–Dalian, Tieling–Fushun Jingmen railway paralleled by Weigang–Jingmen–Jingmen and Tieling–Qinhuangdao three branches which respec- –Yueyang pipeline are, respectively, the three vertical lines. tively have an annual transportation capacity of about In the Northwest Cluster, the northwestern-most, south- 20 million t. Thus, the oil flow track in the Northeast western-most, northeastern-most and southernmost points Cluster appears like a strip of triangulated network with are, respectively, Alashankou, Tazhong, Baotou and Tieling as the largest node, Shenyang the second, and Chengdu, and it connects with the North Cluster through Anshan the third. Beijing–Baotou railway at Baotou, and joins into the East In the North Cluster, the northernmost, westernmost, Cluster through Lanzhou–Luoyang railway at Luoyang, southeastern-most points are Erlianhaote, Shijiazhuang and forming a X with Lanzhou as its cross center; thereinto, Linyi, respectively, and the track connects with the Northeast Kelamayi–Urumchi pipeline—Lanzhou–Urumchi rail- cluster at Qinhuangdao by Beijing–Qinhuangdao pipeline way—Lanzhou–Luoyang railway are the ‘‘\’’ axis of the and Beijing–Qinhuangdao railway, and at Jining by Jining– ‘‘X’’, Lanzhou–Geermu railway—Lanzhou–Xining rail- Tongliao railway, and joins to the Northwest cluster at way—Xining–Yinchuan railway paralleled by Xinin- Baotou by Beijing–Baotou railway. Huhehaote, as one of the g–Yinchuan pipeline—Baotou–Yinchuan railway are the major nodes in the North cluster, connects with two input ‘‘/’’axis of ‘‘X’’, while Kelamayi and Urumchi are the two lines that respectively are Erlianhaote–Saihantala (pipe- sub-centers on ‘‘\’’ axis. line)—Saihantala–Huhehaote (railway) and Keerqin–Jinin- In the South Cluster, the track appears like a ‘‘Y’’, and g–Huhehaote railway, and it also gets in western oil through the northwestern-most, northeastern-most and southwes- Baotou–Huhehaote railway, and sends out Keerqin oil to tern-most point of ‘‘Y’’ are Nanning, Quanzhou Port and Beijing through Jining–Beijing railway. The biggest node of Haikou, respectively; in this Y-shaped track, the inshore the North Cluster, Beijing, also connects with other three route of Zhanjiang–Maoming twin ports and Litang–Z- inflow lines, that is, Tianjin–Beijing railway to transport hanjiang railways are its ‘‘\’’ axis, the inshore route of Dagang Oil to Beijing, Tianjin–Beijing pipeline to send Guangzhou–Huizhou twin ports and the sea route of imported oil and ocean oil to Beijing, and Renqiu–Beijing Meizhou Bay in Quanzhou are its ‘‘/’’ axis, and the ocean pipeline to deliver North-China Oil to Beijing. Tianjin, the routes of Guangzhou–Huizhou twin ports and Zhanjiang–- common starting point of Tianjin–Beijing railway and Maoming twin ports combine to constitute the ‘‘|’’axis. Tianjin–Beijing pipeline, also connects with the sea route of However, the South Cluster lacks a long transportation Tianjin Port and Cangzhou–Tianjin pipeline, and is a hinge pipeline to connect with other four regions, and the oil center of oil input, transferring and distributing. Renqiu, the outflow through sea route from the Northeast, North and starting point of Renqiu–Beijing pipeline, still connects with East China fell a lot from the end of 20th Century on, thus, Renqiu–Cangzhou pipeline and Shijiazhuang–Renqiu pipe- the South Cluster was once separated from other four line to transmit North-China Oil to Shijiazhuang and clusters and becomes an isolated oil flow track region; Cangzhou, respectively. Another major node, Cangzhou, nowadays, as the great development of South-China-Sea connects with Linyi–Cangzhou pipeline and Cangzhou– Oilfield, the South Cluster begins to connect with the East Hejian–Shijiazhuang pipelines as well to draught in Shengli Cluster at sea. Oil and Imported Oil, and then mixes them with local In addition, series connection and parallel connection Dagang Oil and Huabei Oil and transport the mixture to between various kinds of transportation channels are Shijiazhuang as well as to Tianjin and Beijing through widely seen in the flow track network. For instance, Cangzhou–Tianjin–Beijing pipeline. Therefore, in the North Shenyang–Dandong railway is connected with China– Cluster, the track network of oil flow has an umbrella-like Korea pipeline at Dandong; the ocean route of Ningbo structure. and the sea-into-Yangtze route intersect at Ningbo; the 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn 5046 Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050

ocean route of Zhanjiang Port links Maoming–Zhanjiang oil consumption of Shanghai in the East Cluster ranks pipeline at Zhanjiang; Lanzhou–Urumchi railway is con- fourth in China but its self-sufficiency rate is merely 2%; to nected with Kuerle–Urumchi pipeline at Urumchi and with ensure its own oil supply, Shanghai chooses Shengli Oilfield Lunnan–Kuerle—Kuerle–Shanshan pipelines at Kuerle; nearby, as well as Daqing Oilfield, the East South-China- while Harbin–Shenyang–Beijing railway runs parallel with Sea Oilfield and far-off overseas sources including Middle Daqing–Tieling—Tieling–Qinhuangdao—Beijing–Qin- East, Africa, Asia-Pacific and South Africa as its oil source huangdao pipelines, and sea-into-Yangtze route runs regions (please refer to Tables 8–10 for details). parallel with Nanjing–Yueyang pipeline. It is obvious that (2) Determining the source by quality refers to determin- the oil flow track in China is well developed and of good ing the source regions according to the different require- connexity, it cannot only meet the oil output demands of ments of the refineries and petrochemical enterprises in the major oilfields and the oil input needed by major input centers for the quality of crude oil. For instance, Qilu petrochemical bases, but also raise the mutual-adjustment Petrochemicals in Shandong, Jinling Petrochemicals in ability and the flexibility of transportation, and in Jiangsu, Zhenhai Petrochemicals in Zhejiang and Maomin consequence decrease the oil supply risk. Petrochemicals in Guangdong are the four largest high- It should be noticed that under the prerequisite of sulfur crude oil processing bases in China, so they take in ensuring the security and flexibility of oil flow network, we the high-sulfur crude oil from Middle East through should choose the best oil supplying places and the optimal Huangdao Port, Daxiedao Port in Ningbo and Maomin flow routes according to the overall costs of oil transporta- Port in Guangdong, respectively; in contrast, Wuhan tion or should complement the main route with the Petrochemicals in Hubei and Yueyang Petrochemicals in subsidiary ones in multiplex transport routes that run Hunan have a high demand for imported low-sulfur crude parallel. Generally speaking, there are three basic princi- oil, so their overseas source regions are mainly Africa and ples to be followed when the input centers choose their they import oil through Africa–Huangdao ocean route— source regions and corresponding flow routes: Determining Huangdao–Dongying–Linyi–Yizheng pipeline (mixed with the source and route by quantity, quality and price. Shengli-Middle East Mixed Oil or transported in se- (1) Determining the source by quantity means meeting quence)—Yangtse River route, in this way we can avoid the total oil demands is the objective when determining the the mixture with the Middle East high-sulfur oil trans- source regions. For instance, Liaoning in the Northeast ported through Ningbo–Shanghai–Nanjing–Yizheng– Cluster is the largest oil consumption center in China, to Changling pipeline which may sacrifice the quality of ensure its oil supply, Liaoning gains oil from Daqing crude oil. Oilfield in Heilongjiang Province, Dagang and Bohai (3) Determining the source and route by price means Ocean Oilfield in Bohai Sea Gulf and overseas sources transporting oil through the most favorable means and the such as Middle East and Africa; for another example, the most convenient routes as much as possible on the premise

Table 8 Possible distribution of crude oil produced by China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) (excluding export)

Producing area Oil quality Reference oil Input center Benchmark price

Bohai Sea (Tianjin) Weighty Duri Liaoning, Shandong 3026 East South-China-Sea (Guangdong) Moderate I Minas Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, 3697 Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan West South-China-Sea (Guangdong) Moderate I Minas Guangxi, Hainan 3697

Note: the prices above are at the average level of October 2005.

Table 9 Possible distribution of imported crude oil

Producing area Oil quality First carriage Second carriage Benchmark price

Middle east Dubai (weighty) Shandong, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, 25.050 Guangdong Hunan, Tianjin, Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Fujian Africa Moderate II Shandong, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, 29.075 Guangdong Hunan, Henan, Fujian, Tianjin, Beijing, Hebei Asia–Pacific Minas (moderate I) Guangdong, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan 29.250 Fujian Russia–Kazakstan Urals (moderate I) Heilongjiang, Sinkiang — 28.915 South America OPEC (weighty) Guangdong, Zhejiang Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, 29.010 Hubei, Hunan

Note: the prices above are at the average level of August 2003. ARTICLE IN PRESS Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 5047 327.5712 318.1104 357.3712 198.45 198.45 175.25 175.25 ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ 4028) 3726) 4028) 84.19 113.8 136.31 ¼ ¼ ¼ 123.51 2)+35.1 2)+35.1 24.2448 119.75/ 61.63 ¼ ¼ ¼ ¼ http://www.paper.edu.cn 137 1547 2+15.06 89.3 77 ¼ ¼ 85.05+18.1 85.05+18.1+(18.3+36.8+40.2) 406) 406) 85.05+18.1+(18.3+36.8+40.2) j j 529)+270( 529)+270( j j 406) 85.05+(18.9+18.10 j 720) 64.5+24.8 406) 36.8+40.2 j j 406) 85.05+(18.9+18.10 j 711)/252 85.05+18.1+16.6 720)+347( 711)+(171+165)( 711)+(171+165)( 529)+270( 720)+1033.416 64.5+14.3+22.5+12.5 j j j j j j 529)+748.208 26.6+14.5+30.59+12.5 508)+4028 21.9+(7.5+14.6+0.0704 529)+3726 33.7+(7.5+14.6+0.0704 610)+4028 51.7+(7.5+14.6+0.0704 j j j j 11110+230( 12264+403.736+234( (520+454)( 256( 198( 16400/12264+403.736+234( 16146/ 12010+249( 293( 475( 12010+249( pipeline/inshore route Daqing–Tieling–Qinhuangdao–Beijing pipeline (520+454) ( inshore route—Tianjin–Beijing pipeline inshore route inshore route Kuerle–Lanzhou–Baotou–Beijing railway Dalian–Tianjin inshore route—Tianjin–Beijing pipeline West Africa/Red Sea–Huangdao oceanHuangdao–Dongying–Linyi–Cangzhou–Tianjin–Beijing route— pipeline Urumchi–Lanzhou–Baotou–Beijing railway Kuerle–Lanzhou–Baotou–Beijing railway Middle East–Huangdao ocean route— Huangdao–Dongying–Linyi–Cangzhou–Tianjin–Beijing pipeline 3270 3697 Huizhou–Shanghai inshore route 1410 12.6+36.53+12.5 3472 Tianjin–Beijing railway3691 Daqing–Harbin–Shenyang–Beijing railway 1547 137 14.6+0.0704 14.6+0.0704 3691 Dongying–Linyi–Cangzhou–Tianjin–Beijing pipeline3472 (171+165)( 3691 Daqing–Tieling–Dalian pipeline—Dalian–Shanghai 3493 Dongying–Huangdao pipeline—Huangdao–Shanghai 3348 Lunnan–Kuerle pipeline— 3500 West Africa/Red Sea–Dalian ocean route— Price Route3399 3160 Mileage (kilometer) Transportation cost (Yuan/t) Moderate II Weighty 3032 Moderate I Moderate II Moderate I Moderate I Moderate II Weighty 2998 Moderate I Moderate I Moderate I II Light 4087 Kelamayi–Urumchi pipeline— quality Moderate I Moderate II Weighty 2686 Light 4087 Shanshan–Kuerle pipeline— Middle East Weighty 3026 Middle East–Ningbo ocean route—Ningbo–Shanghai Shengli (Shandong) Gudao (Shandong) East South- China-Sea (Guangdong) Dagang (Tianjin) Daqing (Heilongjiang) Linpan (Shandong) Shengli (Shandong) Gudao (Shandong) Middle East Weighty 3026 Middle East–Dalian ocean route—Dalian–Tianjin (Heilongjiang) Linpan (Shandong) Talimu (Sinkiang) Africa Moderate (Sinkiang) Source Oil Tu-Ha (Sinkiang) Shanghai Daqing Beijing Kelamayi Table 10 Possible routes of oil flow in China andInput their transportation cost—caseCenter studies of Beijing and Shanghai 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS 5048 Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 . 136.31 136.31 ¼ ¼ 119.75/ 119.75/ ¼ ¼ http://www.paper.edu.cn 159.85 2+15.06 2+15.06 ¼ the Notice of Adjusting the Port Charge for 85.05+18.1 141.75+18.1 85.05+18.1+16.6 85.05+18.1 85.05+18.1+16.6 Transportation cost (Yuan/t) nd the transshipment charge varies a lot. Please refer http://www.chinesetax.com.cn/Article/Class1239/200507/ the Notice of Adjusting the Price of Crude Oil Transportation by Pipeline 711)/252 711)/252 j j http://www.law.baidu.com/0005702400020406b0cb00d1f367a07f7d3705b43c0d.html 4280 17870+230( Mileage (kilometer) 15240+230( /t km) plus handling charge(3.2 yuan/t for short distance and 3.9 yuan/t for long distance). (Department of Railway, Transportation (1995) 110), Ningbo–Shanghai pipeline/inshore route Shanghai pipeline/inshore route 3697 Asia-Pacific area–Shanghai Ocean route Price Route 3500 West Africa/Red Sea–Ningbo ocean route—Ningbo- Weighty 3026 South America–Ningbo ocean route— I quality II ) (Department of Transportation, National Development and Reform Committee, Waterway Development (2005) 234) . South America Asia–Pacific Moderate Africa Moderate Source Oil continued : Handling Charge Rate of Railway Transportation 113398.html (National Development and Reform6. Committee, The Price cost (2001) of 1377) oil for transportation particular by freight highroad rates is of equal pipeline to transportation. freight rate (0.44 5. The cost of oil transportation by pipeline is proportionate to the diameter of pipeline and the flow mileage. Please refer to 4. The cost of oil transportationfor by imported waterway oil in China is fallsDomestic 18.10 into yuan/t four Trade among types, inshore the northern ports inshore and rate, is the southern 20.90 yuan/t inshore rate, in the Yangtse north-south River inshore rate ports; and the the local Yangtse River charge rate; for the home local charge oil varies a lot. Please refer to to Note 1. The basic data2. above In for 2005, calculation the are3. WS at The Index the cost of of average oil VLCC price transportation from level by railway Middle of in East 2005. China to is equal China to averaged transportation 105, price (0.0704 which yuan/t km is * equal mileage) to plus dispatch 85.05 yuan/t price (14.6 (a yuan/t), dollar a exchanged for 8.1yuan on average in 2005). Table 10 ( Input Center 中国科技论文在线 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050 5049 of ensuring the demands of input centers for the quantity which lays a foundation for a further study on refined oil and quality of oil in order to control the costs and ensure flow, so as to understand the spatial structure of the whole the profit. For instance, there are two routes for Daqing oil flow and the characteristics of the flow field. to be transported to Beijing: one is Daqing–Harbin–She- (c) As the international transportation of crude oil plays nyang–Beijing railway and the other is Daqing–Tieling– a more and more important part in the oil flow, the future Qinhuangdao–Beijing pipeline. These two routes are both research should emphasize the analysis of the international direct transportation with no transshipment. The carriage oil market, especially the influence of imported oil flow for the first course is 123.51 yuan/t (please refer to Table 10 upon domestic oil flow fields, i.e. the disturbing flow and for details), and this railway line is very busy, and the disturbing area, so as to optimize the compositive transportation of a large amount of crude oil will allocation of home oil and imported oil. undoubtedly aggravate this problem, so it is hard to ensure (d) For lack of data, this paper just only analyses the the sufficiency and high efficiency of oil transportation. flow direction in the oil flow field, discarding the flow The second route, with great capacity, has an obvious volume; besides, this paper only obtains the general advantage in its relatively lower freight rate of 107.30 yuan/ framework of the oil flow, and the particular phenomena t, and it is the choicest route for Daqing crude oil to flow to such as refluence, turbulent flow, etc. are not revealed yet. Beijing. For another example, there are also two routes for These are the areas that need further researches. Middle East crude oil to be transported to Beijing: one is (e) Oil flow course is a typical comprehensive transpor- Middle East–Dalian ocean route—Dalian–Tianjin inshore tation network. The analyses of oil flow field, flow track route—Tianjin–Beijing pipeline, and the other is Middle and flow costs in this article lay a sound foundation East–Huangdao ocean route—Huangdao–Dongying–Linyi– concerning the network structure for the optimization of Canzhou–Tianjin–Beijing pipeline. The first route contains oil flow route. Therefore, we should use multi-objective three means of transportation and needs transshipment programming method to optimize the crude oil flow in the twice, with a high loss in handling and a high transporta- future on the basis of researching on the current flow- tion risk, and its freight rate is up to about 175.25 yuan/t volume allocation in the oil flow fields. There are mainly (see Table 10, calculated at the price level of 2005). In three subjects in the oil flow in China: oilfield enterprises, contrast, the second course contains two transportation petrochemical enterprises and transportation enterprises. means and requires transshipping only once, although a They have dissimilar objectives and restrictions, so to long journey, and its transportation cost is about optimize oil flow is in nature to harmonize flow objectives 198.45 yuan/t (see Table 10); however, the domestic part of these three subjects in order to realize the optimal oil of this course is completely pipeline, which is safer, of lower allocation and to maximize the comprehensive flow profit. loss and shorter in the transportation time than the first The objective of oilfield enterprises in oil flow is to sell their course. Therefore by overall consideration, we should oil as widely and as much as possible and to further lower transport oil from Middle East to Beijing through both of their transportation costs (lower costs can facilitate the the courses according to the following principle: taking the expansion of sales); the restriction on the oil flow of oilfield first course as the main one, which can lower the cost, and enterprises is that outflow quantity should be lower than or taking the second course as the subsidiary one to meet our equal to their oil production. The objective of petrochem- urgent, unexpected needs of oil and ensure the oil supply ical enterprises in oil flow is to obtain enough crude oil of security. required quality through the shortest distance, in the shortest time and at the lowest cost (including transship- 6. Discussions ment costs); the shortest distance and lowest cost may conflict with each other, because transshipment may be The paper attempted to study the spatial allocation of needed in the shortest route, which may also lead to the crude oil resource on flow theory, and it still has several increase of cost, and the solution to this is to adopt low- shortcomings which need improving in the future. cost shortest path tree algorithm (Zhou and Sun, 2006); (a) This paper employs only one year data (2003) to moreover, the shortest time is also likely to conflict with the analyze the spatial characteristics of crude oil flow and its shortest path and lowest costs, so we may transfer the results have little difference from what was deduced from shortest time to a time limit so that the objective is changed the data of 1999. It can be inferred that the spatial structure into a restriction; in addition, the source regions in the of oil flow is also a function of time, which was not taken shortest route may or cannot meet the demand of the into account in this paper however. In the future research, petrochemical enterprises, so the objective of the shortest data covering about 20 years would be employed to study distance should be restricted by the requirements of the the dynamic evolvement of the oil flow field in China. enterprises. The objective of transportation enterprises in (b) The whole process of oil flow comprises crude oil oil flow is to carry out the largest total turnover and to flow and refined oil flow, which have different forming match the flux with the transportation means and its mechanism and flow course. This paper analyzes only capacity, but the largest total turnover may mean the crude oil flow for lack of data, and reaches some initial largest transportation distance and cost, which obviously conclusions on the spatial layout of oil flow in China, conflict with the objective of oilfield enterprises and 中国科技论文在线 ARTICLE IN PRESS http://www.paper.edu.cn 5050 Y. Zhao et al. / Energy Policy 35 (2007) 5035–5050

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