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African Development Fund AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT FUND SAHOFIKA 192MW HYDROPOWER PROJECT PARTIAL RISK GUARANTEE COUNTRY: MADAGASCAR APPRAISAL REPORT DATE: NOVEMBER 2019 J. Achieng Senior Investment Officer PESR.2 5452 Team Leaders C. Kouyaté Senior Investment Officer PESR.2 4350 D. Ibrahime Principal Power Engineer RDGN.1 1549 D. Pramodh Consultant/Investment Officer PESR.2 8687 A. Ibrahim Energy Consultant COMG 6008 E. Le Groumellec Principal Legal Counsel PGCL.1 5359 P. Ossoucah Principal Electrical Engineer PESD.2 4904 J. Byamugisha Financial Management Expert COCM 8449 M. Hamza Principal Financial Analyst FIST.2 3969 Team Members L. Kesupile Financial Analyst FIST.2 4388 T. Dayo Country Economist COMG 6007 Project Team E. Razanasamy Procurement Officer COMG 6009 Y. Hatira Environmental Officer RDGS.4 3146 D. Morra Senior Social Development Officer SNSC 8452 T. Ratsimandresy Senior Energy Officer RDGS 6011 C. Imen Principal Country Program Officer COMG 6003 Sector Manager A. Ngom PESR.2 2542 Regional Manager F. Kanonda RDGS.1 8411 Country Manager M. Cherif COMG 6000 B. Baldeh PESD.0 4036 Sector Director/OIC A.Ngom PESR.0 2542 Director General K. Kapoor RDGS 2045 N. Siwingwa Chief Financial Analyst FIST.2 4841 S. Mahieu Principal Investment Officer PESR.2 3954 Peer Principal Resources Mobilisation & 3906 H. Pekam FIRM.2 Reviewers Partnership Officer A. Karembu Principal Investment Officer PERN.1 1961 M. Jalard Senior Investment Officer PESR.2 4346 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT FUND Public Disclosure Authorized MADAGASCAR SAHOFIKA 192MW HYDROPOWER PROJECT PARTIAL RISK GUARANTEE PROJECT APPRAISAL REPORT Public Disclosure Authorized RDGS/PESR/COMG November 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS Project Information Sheet ..............................................................................................................iii Project Summary ............................................................................................................................... v Results Based Logical Framework.................................................................................................. vii Indicative project Implementation Schedule .................................................................................... ix 1. STRATEGIC THRUST AND RATIONALE ....................................................................... 1 2. THE PROJECT DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................... 3 3. FEASIBILITY ........................................................................................................................ 6 4. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS ....................................................................... 10 5. APPLICABLE PRG FEES ................................................................................................... 18 6. LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY ................................................................. 19 7. RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................... 20 LIST OF TABLES Table 1– Financial and Economic Analysis ..................................................................................... 7 Table 2: JIRAMA Financial Performance 2015-2018 ................................................................... 15 Table 3: JIRAMA Key Financial Performance Indicators ............................................................. 15 Table 4: JIRAMA Balance Sheet ................................................................................................... 15 Table 5: Applicable PRG Fees ....................................................................................................... 18 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Impact of Sahofika Project on the Demand and Supply ................................................... 6 Figure 2: Impact of Sahofika Project on the Cost of Service ........................................................... 7 LIST OF ANNEXES ANNEX I: Actions To Improve Financial Performance of JIRAMA ..............................................I ANNEX II: Sahofika Project Location Map .................................................................................. III ANNEX III: Sahofika Project Implementation Structure .............................................................. IV ANNEX IV: GOM PRG Request Letter ......................................................................................... V ANNEX V: ADF PRG Structure For the Sahofika Project ........................................................... VI ANNEX VI: GOM Request For Waiver of Front End Fees ........................................................ VII ANNEX VII: Final PRG Term-Sheet ......................................................................................... VIII ANNEX VIII: Bank Project Portfolio in Madagascar ............................................................. XVIII CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Prevailing rates in October 2019 UA 1 MGA 5,046.16 UA 1 EUR 1.24 UA 1 USD 1.38 FISCAL YEAR 1 January – 31 December WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 Millimetre (mm) = 0.001 Metre (m) 1 Centimetre (cm) = 0.01 m 1 Kilometre (km) = 1,000 m 1 Square Kilometre (km²) = 1,000,000 m² 1 Kilovolt (kV) = 1,000 Volt (V) 1 Kilovolt-Ampere (kVA) = 1,000 Volt – Ampere (VA) 1 kilowatt (kW) = 1,000 Watt 1 Megawatt (MW) = 1,000,000 W or 1 000 kW 1 Gigawatt (GW) = 1,000,000 kW or 1 000 MW 1 kilowatt-hour (KWh) = 1,000 Watt/hour or 3,600,000 Joules (J) 1 Megawatt-hour (MWh) = 1,000,000 Wh or 1,000 KWh i ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AfDB African Development Bank AFD French Development Agency ADER Agency de De Développment de l’Electrification Rurale/ Rural Electrification Development Agency ADF African Development Fund ARELEC Autorité de Régulation de l’Electricité (Ex ORE)/(Electricity Regulatory Authority CSP Country Strategy Paper COD Commercial Operations Date EGOSIP Electricity Sector Operations and Governance Improvement Project EPC Engineering, Procurement and Construction EIB European Investment Bank ESAP Environmental and Social Action Plan ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment FIN Fianarantsoa Interconnected Network GDC Geothermal Development Company GHS Greenhouse gases GIZ German development agency GoM Government of Madagascar HFO Heavy Fuel Oil IPP Independent Power Producer ISS Integrated Safeguards System JIRAMA JIRO Sy RANO Malagasy/Water and Electricity Company in Madagascar KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau kV Kilo Volt KPLC Kenya Power & Lighting Company KWH Kilowatt Hour L/C Letter of Credit LCPDP Least Cost Power Development Plan LIC Low Income Country MDB Multilateral Development Bank MEEH Ministère de l’Eau, de l’Energie et des Hydrocarbures (Ministry of Water, Energy and Hydrocarbons) MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MINFI Ministry of Finance MW Megawatts MWh Megawatt hours NEHO Nouvelle Energie Hydroélectrique de l’Onive NEP New Energy Policy O&M Operation and Maintenance PBA Performance Based Allocation PPA Power Purchase Agreement PPP Public Private Partnership PRG Partial Risk Guarantee RAP Resettlement Action Plan RIA Antananarivo Interconnected Network SPV Special Purpose Vehicle TIN Toamasina Interconnected Network UA ` Unit of Account USD United States Dollar WBG World Bank Group ii PROJECT INFORMATION SHEET Date: November 2019 Project Number: P-MG-FAO-018 CLIENT INFORMATION Guarantee Applicant Government of Madagascar Executing Agency (Obligor) Ministry of Economy and Finance Recipient JIRAMA Implementing Agency JIRAMA FINANCING PLAN Sources Amount Instrument PRG Face Value UA 72.5 Million (USD 100 Million) PRG ADF – PBA (25% of PRG Face Value) UA 18.1 Million (USD 25 Million) PRG ADF KEY FINANCING INFORMATION ADF Guarantee Guarantee Currency USD or EUR Interest Type N/A Interest Rate Margin N/A Equivalent to ADF Commitment fee of 0.50% per annum charged Standby Fee on the Guarantee Amount from signature to when the guarantee becomes callable Equivalent to ADF service charge of 0.75% per annum payable in Guarantee Fee advance of every period and applied on the Guaranteed Amount from the time when the guarantee becomes callable 0.25% of the Guarantee Amount payable at signature or latest at Front-end Fee guarantee effectiveness 15 years from COD. The PRG and L/C may cover bills during the testing phase or potential deemed energy charges as will be agreed in the PPA and with parties to the deal. The COD is estimated to be 54 months from start of construction. The total tenor of the Tenor guarantee from signature can hence be 20 years or more depending on the actual COD date. In any case, the tenor of the guarantee will not exceed the maximum tenor of an ADF loan to Madagascar (40 years). Grace Period N/A To be based on actual costs, payable by the Guarantee Applicant Legal Fees (GoM) or, if accepted, by the project company. Payable by the L/C Applicant (JIRAMA) L/C fees, costs and interest In general, the project company may agree to bear fees and costs, but it will be up to the L/C Applicant to pay the interest. iii KEY FINANCIAL & ECONOMIC OUTCOMES Financial Economic Net Present Value USD 362 Millions USD 224 Millions Internal Rate of Return 18.3% nominal 12% nominal INDICATIVE TIME FRAME – MAIN MILESTONES Concept Note approval 28 June 2018 Project Appraisal Report 12 November 2019 Board approval 13 December 2019 Signature June 2020 Effectiveness 2020 Project Completion June 2038 iv Project Summary The Sahofika Project is a 200 MW gross/192MW net hydropower plant on the Onive river in Madagascar, 100 km south-east of Antananarivo. The project is expected
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