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Economic Development Institute, 1818 H I (c I 82 THE NEWSLETTER ABOUT REFORMING ECONOMIES Public Disclosure Authorized TRANSITION Volume 8, Number2 April 1997 Hong Kong Will Remain a Free What's Inside Market after 1997 SelectedReforms on China'sAgenda 4 by Andrew Sheng WhyIs Ukraine's Economy-and Russia's- In1997theworldwillwitnessamajorhis- US$100billion.) Hong Kong will use its NotGrowing?byDanielKauftnann5 toricevent in Asia.On July1, 1997,Hong financialresources for its ownbenefit. The Russia'sNew DreamTeam Confronts Kong, with 6 millionpeople the world's centralgovemment will not tax Hong Kong. Nightmares9 Public Disclosure Authorized eighthlargest trading economy and fourth largestinternational financial center, will Forthe very reasons that people are skep- Russia'sNew Robber BaronsAct Up 11 returnto China,the world'smost popu- ticalabout monetary integration in Europe, KremlinCapitalism 12 lousnation and oneof its mostdynamic therewill be monetarysegregation be- economies. tweenmainland China and Hong Kong.The Forum:Russia's Economic Policy- HeritageFoundation in the UnitedStates SuggestionsforanAlternative 13 But underthe agreedprinciple of "one found HongKong the freesteconomy in TheBank Should Proritize Recovery- country,two systems," or "onecountry, two theworld. Hong Kong will recorda budget by DavidGisselquist 15 currencies,two monetarypolicies, and surplusof HK$15billion (US$1.95 billion) twocredit ratings," Hong Kong will enjoy a for the fiscalyear endingMarch 31, and RetrainingEconomics Lecturers inRussia highdegree of autonomy,except in such HK$31.7billioninthenextfiscalyear.Chinaby Lan Wu 17 areasas foreign affairs and defense. Hong stillhas a budgetdeficit to cut. Interest rates TheWorld Bank Should Facilitate, Not Kongwill formulate and implement its own in HongKong are totallymarket-driven; Provide18 Public Disclosure Authorized monetaryand exchange rate policy,and Chinais goingthrough a transitionalphase willsafeguard and regulate financial trans- inwhich some interest rates are still set ad- Lettersto the Editor-Millard Long, John actions undertakenon the Hong Kong ministratively.[See Transition, November- Nellis,andJozeMencinger19 market.Underthe Basic Law (seebox), December 1996, p. 22] (China has NorthKorea'sEconomyUnderStresses HongKong's capitalist system will exist for broughtinflation down into the single dig- by NicholasEberstadt 21 fifty moreyears, andthe extremelysuc- its,but it is still higherthan in HongKong.) cessful monetarysystem-a currency The HongKong dollar is fully convertible NorthKorea Is Starving for Reform23 boardwhere the currencyis peggedto with no exchangecontrols whatsoever; MilestonesofTransition 24 theU.S. dollar-will continue.Backing the China'scurrency is convertibleon the currency,Hong Kong will manage the currentaccount but not yet on the capi- WorldBank/IMF Agenda 29 world'sseventh-largest foreign exchange tal account.So Chinais goingthrough a ConferenceDiary 32 reserves,totaling US$66 billion. These re- major transition.Monetary segregation NewBooks and Working Papers 33 servesare five times largerthan Hong makessense. Kong'smonetary base. And HongKong BibliographyofSelected Articles 39 Public Disclosure Authorized has no external debt. (To compare: Sevenprinciples have beenagreed be- SubscriptionForm 40 Taiwan's[China] reserves are aboutthe tweenHong Kong and China on monetary same and China's reservesare about relations: Macroeconomicsand Growth Division PolicyResearch Department The WorldBank 1. The Hong Kong dollar will be the only international business. Trade and liabili- international standing. Hong Kong is al- legal tender in Hong Kong, and the ties between the two will be regardedas readyan equal memberwith the People's renminbi remainsthe only legal tender in external trade and liabilities. Bank of China in the Basel-based Bank China. for International Settlements. And the 6. Some raise the question: After unifica- Hong Kong Monetary Authority, as re- 2. The two monetaryauthorities are mutu- tion will Shanghai replace Hong Kong as cently agreed, will participate in the New ally independentand are not subsidiaryto a major internationalbanking center? The Arrangements to Borrow within the IMF. oneanother. They may consult one another Hong Kong's suc- and closelycooperate. 1HongKong in; 1997-The BasicLaw cess as a prominent The People'sBank of international and re- Chinawill not set up ginlfinancial ser- China's policies of maintaining Hong vested in the Government of the HK gional Kong after 1997 and Kong's status as an international finan- S.A.R. The issue of Hong Kong cur- vices center is no will not replace the cial center and preserving its au- rency must be backed by a 100 per- ishgly congm wilrplce nt hetonomy in monetary and financial cent reservefund.... The Government i ihycmeiie ong Hong Kong Monetary affairs after 1997 are clearly enshrined of the HK S.A.R. may authorize des- This is confirmed by Authority.The two in- the WorldEconomic in the Joint Declaration of 1984 and ignated banks to issue or continue to dependentmonetary Forum's 1996 Glo- s the Basic Law of 1990.The BasicLaw issue Hong Kong currency under systemswill havetheir thefollowing provisions: statutory authority, after satisfying it- bal Competitive Re- owncredit ratings. y ot hc ak self that any issue of currency will be por, whic as 3 Ted "109.a The Government of the Hong soundly based and the arrangements Hong Kong as the 3 The mainland ~~~~~~~~~~~~~secondmost com- China offices of the Kong Special Administrative Region for such issue are consistent with the s econ om y in Hong Kong-based fi- [HK S.A.R. shall provide an appropri- object of maintaining the stability of the word,eust after nancial institutions ate economicand legal environmTentthe currency. Singapore. Hong will continue to be for the maintenanceof the status of Kn a ogbe Hong Kong as an internationalfinan- "112. Noforeign exchange control poli-Kn a ogbe treatedas any other cial center. cies shall be appliedin the HK S.A.R. a leading financial (U.S., Japanese,and ;; H K dbies shall be free services center in so on) financial insti- 110.0.., The Govern ent tf the HK TconvertibgKon dollar shall be freely Asia and globally. It tutions.Similarly, the .. TeGvrmen f theHKcoveribe.Maretmfr fregnex mainland's financial S.A.R. shall, on its own, formulate mon- change, gold, securities, futures and ditions forpsuccess institutions in Hong 0etary and financial policies, safeguard the like shall continue. The Govern- KongswilltoninHotneciv the free operationof financialbusiness mentof the HK S.A.R.shall safegUard ,<ongwillinotreceive and financial markets, and regulate the free flow of capital within, into and * Hong Kong ben- yspecial privileges and supervise them in accordancewith out of the Region. efits from its strate- Theywill be subject to law.cgegapia all the rules and regu- ::XE3 The Exchange Fud fth HK location-it is at lations "11. heoxcane FndofgheHKthe center of the latsinHongKong."111. The Hong Kong dollar, as the S.A.R. shallbemanagedandcontrolled test-row re 4. At the request of ilegal tender in the HK S.A.R., shall by the Government of the Region, pri- gion in the world 4AttheHonguKog Monf continue to circulate. The authority to 0 marilyfor regulatingthe exchangevalue an in the world thet uhongKongty Mo- issue Hong Kong currency shall be of the Hong Kong dollar." an ti thenate- etary Authority, the way to China. Lo- People's Bank of cated within the China will support the Hong Kong dollar, answer is no. Even if the renminbi be- Asian time zone, Hong Kong comple- if necessarywith its own reserves, but in comesmore international,and Shanghai's ments New York and London to form a no circumstanceswill draw on the Hong capital markets strengthen,the financial global network in providing financial Kong exchange fund or any other finan- centers will be mutually complementary services. cial resource. in the same way as Chicago and New Yorkare complementary. * Hong Kong has a clear, fair, and pre- 5. Financialtransactions between China dictable legal system. The government and Hong Kong will be treated as if they 7.After 1997,Hong Kong,under the name has provided the rule of law to protect are external business-and practicallyas Hong Kong, China, will preserve its own the interests of depositors, investors, a TRANSITION,April 1997 © 1997The WorldBank shareholders,insurance policy holders, experienced staff. nancial services as securitiestrading and members of occupational retire- * Hong Kong enjoys the strategic ad- and investment banking, and related ment schemes.It also makesevery ef- vantageof being the keyfinancial cen- accounting and legal services, will fort to ensure that all market ter for China. Hong Kong is close to expand. The World Bank has esti- participantscompete on equal terms. China; its peopleunderstand Chinese mated that the infrastructure needs businessesand the Chinese culture. of East Asia alone amount to US$1.5 *Thetaxsystemisrenownedforitssim- And its unique position, as repre- trillion in the decade to 2004. In plicity and low rates. Companiesare sentedin the phrase"one country, two Hong Kong, apart from the funding free to enterand to dobusiness in Hong systems,"makes it the ideal place for needs of its own investment, a ma- Kong as long as they meet jor potential growth area is someminor requirements and the financing of China's in- observeHong Kong laws.And Milton Friedman on the Reninbi-HK frastructure development. ancillaryinstitutions, such as Dollar Rllationship accountingand legal firms and Some have suggested that informationsuppliers,
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