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Information to Users INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the raicroSIm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from aity type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and inçroper alignment can adversety afreet reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand comer and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photogrtq)hs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographicaliy in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. UMI A Bell & Howell Information Company 300 North Zeeb Road. Ann Arbor. Ml 48106-1346 USA 313.'761-4700 800.521-0600 THE DYNAMICS OF SINO-RUSSIAN MILITARY COOPERATION, 1989-1994: MOTIVES, PROCESSES, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EAST ASIAN SECURITY DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Taeho Kim, B.A., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 1995 Dissertation Committee: Approved by James E. Harf Allan R. Millett Adviser Kevin J. O'Brien Department of Political Science OMI Number: 9534007 Copyright 1995 by Kim, Taeho All rights reserved. DMI Microform 9534007 Copyright 1995, by DMI Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. UMI 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, MI 48103 Copyright by Taeho Kim 1995 To My China Mentors; Parris H. Chang, Hoei-Hoan Cho, and A. Doak Barnett 11 ACKNOWLEDGMENT Tl is my honor and obligation to acknowledge intellectual indebtedness to those scholars who have helped me to complete this study. First of aU, I owe a personal and intellectual debt to thiee noted China scholars who have guided me into the study of Chinese politics: Parris H. Chang (Pennsylvania State University), Hoei-Hoan Cho (Hankuk University of Foreign Studies), and A. Doak Barnett (Johns Hopkins/S ATS). This study would not have been completed without the perennial admonition of my adviser, James E. Harf. I would tike to express my sincere appreciation to him and the other committee members, Allan R. Mtilett and Kevin J. O'Brien. I am also very grateful to many scholars in the field who offered helpful comments on the manuscript at its various stages in 1992-1994: Tai Ming Cheung, R. Bates Gill, Alexander Huang, Ellis Joffe, James R. Lilley, Michael Mazarr, and Xiaoxiong Yi. I am of course alone responsible for any remaining errors or faulty interpretations. At a more personal level, I cannot thank enough my parents, Chun Hai Kim and In Soon Song, for their unswerving support for my study. To my wife, Myunghee (Mimi) Sung, and my son, Alexander Hongshik Kim, I am most grateful for their sharing of the travails of my long academic peregrination. m VITA September 15, 1960 ......................... Bom - Seoul, The Republic of Korea 1983 ................................................... B.A., Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Seoul, The Republic of Korea 1985 ................................................... M.A., The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 1989 ................................................... Senior China Analyst (since 1991), The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), Seoul PUBLICATIONS "Kim Jong-il: North Korea's New Leader." Jane's Intelligence Review. Vol. 6, No. 9 (September 1994). pp. 421-24. "China's Military Buildup in a Changing Security Climate in Northeast Asia." In Richard H. Yang, ed. China's Military: The PLA in 1992/93. Boulder: Westview Press, 1993. pp. 121-36. "Prospects for Political Change and Liberalization in North Korea (with Young Koo Cha)," Washington Quarterly, Vol. 15, No. 3 (Summer 1992), pp. 155-69. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Political Science Studies in: International Relations Comparative Politics Chinese Politics and Military iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENT........................................................................... iii VITA.......................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES.................................................................................... vü LIST OF FIGURES................................................................................... viii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS................................................................... ix CHAPTER PAGE I. INTRODUCTION: AN OVERVIEW.......................................... 1 Salience and Complexity of the Issue............................................. 3 Research Tradition in the Study of Sino-Soviet Relations 8 Problems of Data and Current Interpretations............................... 11 Outline of the Study ....................................................................... 17 n. THEORIES OF COOPERATION IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS............................................... 26 The Realist and Institutionalist Debate .......................................... 27 Three Approaches to International Cooperation........................... 36 Importance of Nonsystemic Factors.............................................. 53 m. RESUMPTION OF SINO-RUSSIAN MILITARY TIES : A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS........................................... 63 The Motivational Systems ............................................................. 65 Decision-Making Structures and Processes in China: The Case of the Su-27 Sale ........................................................... 78 Need for an Integrated Framework ............................................... 92 rv. CHINA'S DEFENSE DEVELOPMENT AND THE SOVIET FACTOR IN A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE.......................... 101 The Sino-Soviet Honeymoon in the 1950s..................................... 102 The Soviet Legacy and the Decades of Technological Isolation ... 116 China's Changing Defense Requirements in the 1980s .................. 119 After the Sino-Soviet Normalization in 1989 ................................ 124 V. SINO-RUSSIAN MILITARY TIES AND CHINA'S DEFENSE MODERNIZATION.................................. 149 China's New Military Strategy ....................................................... 150 PLA Ground Force .......................................................................... 156 PLA Navy ....................................................................................... 160 PLA Air Force................................................................................ 166 PLA Nuclear Force and Missile Systems ................................... 171 Transfer of Technology and Scientific Personnel ........................... 175 VI. REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS AND REACTIONS...................... 187 The China Factor in Post-Cold War East Asian Security ............. 188 Taiwan.............................................................................................. 193 Japan................................................................................................. 199 The Korean Peninsula...................................................................... 203 ASEAN and the South China S ea ................................................... 208 The United States............................................................................. 216 Vn. CHINA'S DECISION-MAKING CALCULUS IN NORMALIZATION; A HISTORICAL COMPARISON 227 Sino-U.S. Normalization................................................................ 228 Sino-South Korean Normalization.................................................. 242 China’s Patterns of Engagement.................................................... 252 vm . CONCLUSIONS............................................................................. 264 Theoretical Issues Revisited ................ 264 The Future of Sino-Russian Military Relations .............................. 271 Implications for East Asian Stability .............................................. 276 LIST OF REFERENCES............................................................................. 285 VI LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE 3.1 Changes in China's Motivational Systems, 1950-1989 ............... 68 3.2 Motivational Systems of China, the U.S., and the USSR at the Time of Tiananmen Incident in May/June 1989 ............... 74 4.1 Selected List of Mutual Visits by Chinese and Russian Leaders since 1989 .......................................................... 135-36 5.1 Russia's Actual and Potential Transfers of Major Conventional Weapons and Selected Military-Related Items to China, 1990-1994.......................................................... 176 vn LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 2.1 The Strategic Triangle among the United States, the Soviet Union, and China......................................................
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