Federal Electorate Redistributions 19 March 2021
Barton Deakin Brief: Federal Electorate Redistributions 19 March 2021 Overview The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has proposed a redistribution of divisions in Western Australia and Victoria. Victoria will gain one seat in the House of Representatives and Western Australia will lose one, increasing the Victorian total to 39 and decreasing the Western Australian total to 15. The Division of Hawke will be created in Victoria and the Division of Stirling currently held by Vince Connelly (LPA) will be abolished. The Division of Hawke is likely to include the suburbs of Ballan, Bacchus Marsh, Melton, Diggers Rest, and Sunbury. ABC election analyst Antony Green has calculated that the two-party-preferred in Hawke will have Labor ahead with a margin of 10.2 per cent. The Coalition is not expected to increase its margins in Victoria as a result of these changes and the calculations suggest that there may be small swings against the Coalition in Kooyong, Deakin, Mallee, Menzies, Monash, Chisholm, Wannon, and Higgins. Labor is likely to increase its margins in Hotham, Fraser, Calwell, and Macnamara, and to decrease its margins in Bruce, Gellibrand, Gorton, Maribyrnong, Ballarat, Jagajaga, Isaacs, Wills, Holt, Cooper, and Bendigo. Background The AEC is required to redistribute the federal electoral divisions when: the number of MPs a state or territory is entitled to has changed; the number of electors in more than one-third of the electoral divisions in a state deviates from the average divisional enrolment by over 10 per cent for more than two months; or seven years has elapsed since the last redistribution process was determined.
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