Intermodality - as the hinterland of the Port of Bar

Sanja Bojić, Associate Professor, Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of

Geographical position and transport network of Serbia Serbia is a landlocked country situated at the crossroads of Central and Southeast Europe, in the middle of three geo-political entities: macro-region, Adriatic-Ionian macro-region and Western Balkan 6 initiative. By analyzing and assessing the geostrategic and geopolitical comparative advantages of the Republic of Serbia in the wider European area, the main advantage of the Republic of Serbia is being the traffic connection of Western and Central Europe with Southeastern Europe and the Middle East, as well as the connection of Central European countries - the Middle Danube towards the South Adriatic, the Aegean and the Black Sea, or the Mediterranean. Serbia is crossed by the two main transport corridors recognized as Pan-European Corridors X and VII. According to the European Union TEN-T classification and latest indicative extension of TEN-T network to Western Balkan, former Pan-European corridors are replaced by branches of Orient/East-Med Corridor and Mediterranean corridor as shown at following pictures.

Figure 1. Indicative extension of TEN-T network to Western Balkan [1]

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Main transport infrastructure in Serbia make sections of the main international corridors of the TEN – T core network (Corridor X, or Orient/East-Med Corridor and Mediterranean corridor and Corridor VII or Danube – Rhine – Main river corridor) and comprehensive network, where Routes 3, 4, 5, 7 and 9 are connecting Serbia with neighboring countries. Road network in Serbia has an approximate total length of 45.000 km, including approximately 800 km of highways, 5.000 km of first-level state roads, 11.000 km of second-level state roads and over 25.000 km of local roads. Railway network has approximate length of 5.000 km, out of which is only approximately 20% electrified and 10% double tracked. The railway network is mostly in poor condition with over 300 bottleneck spots, whose reconstruction is estimated to approximately 4 billion euros. However, at the moment, there is a great number of rehabilitations, re-construction and construction works on the network on-going. Highest development potential has the inland waterway transport (IWT). The Danube is the most important element of the inland waterway system in Serbia. With the Sava and the Tisa rivers, it creates a 1,680 km long network of waterways. The Danube’s section in Serbia (588 km) is navigable for all types of river ships. There are 8 international ports in the Serbian sector of the Danube: , Bezdan, Bačka Palanka, Novi Sad, Beograd, Pančevo, and Prahovo. Currently, in accordance with the Strategy on Development of Waterborne Transport of the Republic of Serbia for the period from 2015 to 2025, a list of the most important investments is defined and initialized including: construction and reconstruction of Serbian ports, eliminating all critical sectors for navigation on the waterway network, further improvement of intelligent waterway transport systems. The most relevant parts of the transport network in Serbia for the intermodal connection to Montenegro is the section of the Route 4: road route – South Adriatic E-763 and the railway route E-79. The Route Е-763: Belgrade – Pozega– Boljare (border with Montenegro) consists of 3 sectors: • Sector I Belgrade – (80.3 km) including sections: Belgrade (Surcin) – (17.6 km); Obrenovac – Ub (26.2 km); Ub– (12.5 km); Lajkovac – Ljig (24 km); • Sector II Ljig – Pozega (71.2 km) including sections: Ljig – Preljina (40.4 km); Preljina – Pozega (30.9 km) • Sector III Pozega – Boljare (border with Montenegro) (107 km).

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The most of the sector I and II of the Route E-763 have been constructed and reconstructed in the recent years (please see the Figure 2.). However, the sector III still remains as the project in the near future. [2]

Figure 2. Status of the reconstruction of the route Е-763: Belgrade – Pozega– Boljare (border with Montenegro) [2]

Regarding the railway route E-79, Serbian part of the railway line connecting Serbia and Montenegro will be reconstructed and modernized by the Russian Railways. According to the agreement, signed in Belgrade in January 2019, the reconstruction of the 210 km long railway section – Vrbnica should start in 2022. The project will be financed with 57.5 million Euros from the Serbian national budget and with 172.5 million Euros from the Russian loan supported by the Russian Railways.

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Figure 3. Railway route Bar Belgrade [3]

Unfortunately, there are no contemporary intermodal terminals in Serbia, but rather few bimodal container-handling terminals. Although, containers can be handled in some of the Serbian Railways marshaling stations as well as in the inland waterway ports on the Sava and Danube rivers, currently only four terminals in Serbia have regular railway connections with the sea ports in the region and are dedicated to the container handling on the daily basis. The terminals are located in Belgrade, Dobanovci, and Pančevo: 1. ŽIT Beograd 2. NELT Dobanovci 3. LEGET Sremska Mitrovica 4. DUNAV Pančevo.

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ŽIT terminal is located in Belgrade and represents the oldest road-rail terminal in Serbia. It is currently at the new location in the shipping park (park B) of the Belgrade railway station, the marshalling yard in Železnik. Although the new location now has only two tracks, ŽIT continued to service international container lines. In its current state, it can accommodate up to 4 trains a day. There is currently a problem with storage capacities of up to 1400 containers. According to the estimates of the ŽIT terminal, the existing container terminal covers about 40% of the total number of containers transported by rail, which represents about 15% of all containers coming to Serbia. The terminal has the regular liner service with the ports Rijeka, Kopar and Bar. The distance of the port of Bar from the ŽIT terminal measured on the railway infrastructure is only 476 km, which makes this port the closest port to this container terminal. NELT terminal is the central distribution and logistics center of the company NELT located in Dobanovci, near Belgrade. The terminal is connected by rail to all European ports and land terminals. The terminal is located 6 km of the intersection of the highways E-75 and E-70 and 10 km from the Airport Nikola Tesla. It offers regular weekly railway transport of containers to and from the ports of Rijeka and Pireus. [4] LEGET terminal is located in the Port of Sremska Mitrovica (75 km from Belgrade). It provides regular railway service to and from the port of Rijeka, several times a week. Considering that the terminal is located on the Sava river, theoretically it is possible transshipment of containers to the inland waterway vessels, however, it is not a standard service. The terminal handles between 10.000 and 15.000 containers a year. [5] DUNAV terminal is located in the Port of Pancevo. It started with its service in 2020. It is the first three modal terminal in Serbia. Its advantage in comparison to other terminals is its good traffic-geographical position, given that it is located at the intersection of two Pan-European corridors, Rhine-Main-Danube and road-railway corridor X, as well as at a distance of only 14 km from Belgrade. The current annual capacity of the terminal is 8,000 TEU with the possibility of expansion. [6]

Economy and foreign trade of Serbia According to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the total import and export of Serbia in 2018 was 45,109 million USD. Thereat, 64% of the total external trade was with the European Union member states. The highest share of export of the Republic of Serbia had the Region (33.0%), followed by the Belgrade region (26.4%), the Region Šumadija and West Serbia (24.6%), the Region South and East Serbia (16.0%), and approximately 0.1% of total export is not classified by territories. The highest share of import of the Republic of Serbia had the Belgrade region (45.9%), followed by the Region Vojvodina (27.5%), the Region Šumadija and

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West Serbia (16.4%), the Region South and East Serbia (9.5%), and approximately 0.7% of total import is not classified by territories. [7] Structure of the export, according to the products’ destination (the principle of prevalence), was: reproduction products 55.6% (USD 9,442.0 million), then consumer goods 33.4% (USD 5,670.8 million) and equipment 11.1% (USD 1,883.1 million). Unclassified goods according to destination amounted to 0.9% (USD 1.2 million). Structure of the import, according to the products’ destination, was: reproduction products 57.7% (USD 12,642.3 million), then consumer goods 18.8% (USD 4,127.8 million) and equipment 12.5% (USD 2,733.9 million). Unclassified goods according to destination amounted to 11.0% (USD 2,416.5 million). [7] The major foreign trade partners of Serbia are presented in Table 1.

Table 1. The major foreign trade partners of Serbia in 2018 [7]

Exports USD million EUR million Imports USD million EUR million Italy 2237.0 1990.3 Germany 2774.6 2454.7 Germany 2131.5 1888.7 Italy 2207.5 1955.1 BiH 1371.3 1211.6 China 1767.7 1560.8 Russia 995.5 881.3 Russia 1586.2 1410.6 Romania 817.5 726.1 Hungary 1064.4 940.6 Serbian second major export/import partner are the CEFTA countries, with the surplus in external trade of USD 2051.6 million, resulting mainly from the exports of agricultural products, iron and steel, metal products, road vehicles; and import of iron and steel, hard coal and briquettes, fruit and vegetables, cork and wood.

Table 2. Export/import data according to the divisions of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) [7]

Exports USD EUR Imports USD EUR million million million million

Electrical machines and 1549.2 1368.5 Road vehicles 1756.3 1563.3 apparatus

Road vehicles 1401.3 1250.0 Oil and oil derivatives 1393.2 1230.8

Fruit and vegetables 886.7 783.8 Electrical machines and 1169.0 1031.9 apparatus Non-ferrous metals 819.6 725.5 Industrial general purpose 816.8 720.7 machinery

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Based on the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC), the first five export product groups accounted for 31.9% of total exports, while in import, the first five import product groups accounted for 26.9% of total imports. Section of unclassified goods, now also involving customs storage goods and goods in free zone, had the share in total import of 11.1% (Table 2.).

Container flows in Serbia Unfortunately, there are no precise statistical data about the container flows to and from Serbia, considering that the official statistics refers to the total number of containers without differencing 20" (TEU) and 40" (FEU) containers. Therefore, the data obtained from the Customs Administration of Serbia [8] were further analysed based on the data from Eurostat suggesting that, in the total container flows, 20" (TEU) containers have 27% while 40" (FEU) containers have 73% share. [9] Based on the Eurostat defined share, the total number of container flows determined by the Customs Administration of Serbian were converted to the total TEU container flows and the obtained values (expressed in TEU) were used in all following analysis. Based on the data received from the Customs Administration of Serbia, the total number of TEU in Serbian export and import, in the reviewed period from 2015 - 2017 is presented in the Figure 4.

100000 89226 90000 79163 80000 70285 70000 60000 50000 41961 34936 40000 31515

30000 Containers Containers [TEU] 20000 10000 0 2015 2016 2017

Export Import

Figure 4. Total container flows of Serbia, in TEU, from 2015 to 2017 [10]

According to the available data, total container flows increased for 12.08% in 2016 in comparison to 2015 and 14.98% in 2017 in comparison to 2016.

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The analysis of the statistical data shows an increase of container exports of 10.86% in 2016 in comparison to 2015 and 20.11% in 2017 in comparison to 2016. The analysis of the statistical data shows an increase of container import of 12.63% in 2016 in comparison to 2015, and 12.71% in 2017 in comparison to 2016. The level of container export by the statistical regions of Serbia is presented in Figure 5.

Vojvodina

Šumadija i West Serbia

South and East Serbia

Belgrade

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

2017 2016 2015

Figure 5. Container export by the statistical regions of Serbia, in TEU, from 2015 to 2017 [10]

The level of container export by the customs offices of Serbia is presented in Figure 6.

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Customs office Užice

Customs office Kruševac

Customs office

Customs office

Customs office Niš

Customs office

Customs office Vršac

Customs office Šabac

Customs office

Customs office

Customs office Novi Sad

Customs office

Customs office Dimitrovgrad

Customs office Belgrade

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 2017 2016 2015

Figure 6. Container export by the customs offices of Serbia, in TEU, from 2015 to 2017 [10]

The level of container import by the statistical regions of Serbia is presented in Figure 7.

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Vojvodina

Šumadija and West Serbia

South and East Serbia

Belgrade

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

2017 2016 2015

Figure 7. Container import by the statistical regions of Serbia, in TEU, from 2015 to 2017 [10]

The level of container import by the customs offices of Serbia is presented in Figure 8.

Customs office Zrenjanin Customs office Vršac Customs office Užice Customs office Šabac Customs office Subotica Customs office Sombor Customs office Novi Sad Customs office Niš Customs office Kruševac Customs office Kraljevo Customs office Kragujevac Customs office Kladovo Customs office… Customs office Belgrade

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2017 2016 2015

Figure 8. Container import by the customs offices of Serbia, in TEU, from 2015 to 2017 [9]

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According to the interviews carried out with the main container freight forwarding companies, within the EU project DBS Gateway Region, the total throghput of containers in Serbia in 2017 was approximatelly 75.000: 45,000 containers in import and 30,000 containers in export. [10] According to the same source, in 2017, the main sea ports for Serbian container export/import were: • Rijeka, Croatia with approximately 40,000 containers, • Bar, Montenegro with approximately 20,000 containers, • Koper, Slovenia with approximately 10,000 containers, • Piraeus, Greece with approximately 3,000 containers, • Thessaloniki, Greek/North EU ports (Rotterdam, Hamburg, Antwerp) with approximately 2,000 containers. [10] According to the same source, in 2017, the Serbian export/import flows were carried by the six main container carriers: • MAERSK LINE, approximately 33,000 containers, • COSCO, approximately 15,000 containers, • MSC, approximately 13,000 containers, • EVERGREEN, approximately 7,000 containers, • CMA – CGM, approximately 4,000 containers, • HAPPAG LIOYD, approximately 3,000 containers.[10] However, in April 2017, COSCO opened intermodal transport route from China to the NELT rail terminal (in Dobanovci, near Belgrade) via the Port of Piraeus (offering CY China main ports - CY Belgrade price). Already in 2018, this route almost reached the amount of transported containers as the route through the Port of Rijeka. Previous analyses were used as a basis for the container flow forecast. For the long-term forecasts of the development of cargo flows, and in particular of the cargo flows in Serbia, there are many dilemmas, since Serbia does not have a clear projection - the economic development strategy, which determines which economic branches - the groups will have priority, on the basis of which a relevant projection could be performed. Data provided by the World Bank show projections of an increase in GDP per capita by 2030 between 1.5% and 4%, with a target value of around 3% .[11] Data for Serbia are at the level of 4% for the next years. [12] For developed countries in the EU, this is significantly less (e.g. about 2%), but their initial position is incomparable with Serbia. For China, the projected growth rate is still around 5% by 2030. For container transport, the increase in cargo handling in the ports in recent years is at the level of 2 - 6% [13].

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The latest document by the World Bank Group, Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, [14] confirms the problem of the development of the region's economy, which, compared to Germany, has only about 30% of GDP per capita, which raises the issue of development concept and indefinite time to bring the economic situation closer to the developed countries. The Serbian economy, based on foreign investments, without a significant share of its own production, has a 39.6% export of goods from GDP, but that is why 50% of GDP is import of goods. For these reasons, the following parameters are adopted as criteria for the development of container transport in Serbia. Starting from the abovementioned and the elaborated increase of the container flows, it can be assumed that the further development of the container flows in Serbia could have three possible scenarios: • Realistic scenario - the expected annual increase of container flows is 10%, • Pesimistic scenario - the expected annual increase of container flows is 5%, • Optimistic scenario - the expected annual increase of container flows is 15%.[10]

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Other relevant cargo flows in Serbia Aside from the containers, the other cargo flows of Serbia, that could be relevant for Montenegro as the growing flows in the hinterland of the Port of Bar, are the flows transported on the inland waterways of Serbia, handled in the Serbian ports on the Danube, Tisa and Sava rivers. According to the Port Governance Agency, in 2019, 14.2 million tonnes of cargo were transshipped on the rivers in Serbia, which represents a significant increase of 20 percent compared to the year 2018. The volume of cargo transport and transshipment that has increased by one fifth indicates a surge of economic activity in the Republic of Serbia, especially in the fields of chemical industry, energy, mining and construction.[15]

Figure 9. Quantities of transhipped cargo on rivers in Serbia, in tons [15] The data of the Port Governance Agency show that 10 out of the total 13 port areas in the Republic of Serbia recorded an increase in the cargo transshipment. The biggest growth was achieved by the port area in Smederevo, where a total of four million tonnes of cargo was transshipped, making the port in Smederevo one of the busiest ports on the whole Danube.[15] After the Port of Smederevo, the Port of Novi Sad and the Port of Pančevo have the highest cargo throughput (please see the Figure 10.).

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Figure 10. Cargo flows through Serbian inland ports [15] As before, the most frequently transshipped cargoes are gravel, sand and stone aggregates, which together account for 23.93 percent of transshipments. Ores are in second place with a share of 16.48 percent, while grain is in third place with 15.95 percent. Oil and oil products ranked fourth with 14.08 percent. In addition to these, increased quantities of coal and bulk cargo were also recorded. Coal and bulk cargoes accounted for 8 percent of total river transshipment in Serbia in 2019. According to the Agency, the largest difference in the amount of the cargo transshipped was recorded for grain and oilseeds. Thanks to the improvement of the conditions on the international market for mercantile goods, 969,000 tonnes of more grain were recorded with regard to the previous year. [15]

Figure 11. The most frequent transhipped goods on rivers in Serbia [15]

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Status Quo of the Port of Bar intermodal connection to Serbia Unfortunately, at the moment, share of the intermodal transport in Montenegro is low in the overall transport performance. Infrastructure necessary for supporting intermodality (such as port connections to the rail network and intermodal stations for rail – road combined transport) is missing. This influences the share of the railway transport in the country’s intermodal transport operations, which are dominated by road freight carriers. The Port of Bar is a great starting point that is designed to have access to all main national roads and railways. Current state of that infrastructure is outdated and is not in a good condition. There are some opportunities in planned investment in transport infrastructures on national level. However, the Transport Development Strategy of Montenegro recognized the need for railway reconstruction. A great number of upgrades of Montenegrin railways is underway or is in the planning stage. Priority is given to main railway corridors for passenger and freight transport, between Bar, Podgorica and Bijelo Polje (border with Serbia). Plans for upgrades of other railway corridors with Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina are in preparation, although their realization is not expected before 2035. [16] Since 2006, 123.1 million Euro was invested in rehabilitation and modernization of Montenegro railway infrastructure. Over 48% of Montenegro’s rail infrastructure has been rehabilitated in the recent years and overhauling work on remaining segments is either ongoing or planned. Public rail network is almost fully electrified (225 km out of 250 km or 90%), which is significantly higher than the EU average, which is 52%. Maximum allowable speeds remain low and range between 50 km/h and 100 km/h. The fact is that the railway has single rail lines reduces its transporting and pass-through capacities. [16] With respect to the Vrbnica-Bar line, so far, its northern part has been rehabilitated: Vrbnica- Kolašin (53.2 km), with additionally contracted overhaul of Kolašin-Kos (10.9 km) and Kos- Trebešica (7.3 km, with secured financing) for a maximum speed of 75-80 km / h. Remaining works include the general overhaul of the line’s remaining 96 km (Trebešica-Bar), preparation of the main project for rehabilitation of existing signalling in Podgorica station and concrete bridges (a total of 91 bridges), preparation of the main reconstruction and rehabilitation project for 106 tunnels, procurement of equipment for maintenance of railway infrastructure, (14 steel bridges, 91 concrete bridge, 12 slopes and landslides in a total length of 3km), reconstruction of the track and facilities at three stations, reconstruction of the existing signalling and contact lines along the line and modernization of the security system and video surveillance. The estimated duration of the project is 15 years. There is technical documentation for most of the phases of the project for the preparation of the tender or implementation of the tender procedure.[16] With rehabilitation and reconstruction of Montenegrin railways, due to its direct connection to Port of Bar and main economic centers in Montenegro, increase in overall economic activities

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Conclusions regarding bottlenecks and potentials for further integration of the Port of Bar and Serbia as its hinterland Based on the analysis of the existing infrastructure, existing intermodal services as well as intensity and origin and destination of the cargo flows in Serbia, the SWOT analysis for further integration of the Port of Bar and Serbia as its hinterland has been performed (Table 3).

Table 3. SWOT analysis of the hinterland connection of the Port of Bar with Serbia

Strengths Weaknesses

Geographical distance; Current condition of the Bar Belgrade railway route; Traditionally good cooperation; Current condition of the road routes between Montenegro and Serbian trade centers; Long existing operational intermodal route and service; Long transport times both in road and rail transport; Part of the indicative extension of the TEN-T network to Western Balkan. Not reliable intermodal service; Not developed intermodal terminals (existing ones are mostly obsolete with limited storage and handling capacities); Frequency of the sea shipping service.

Opportunities Threats

Investments in both road and rail infrastructure Developed regular intermodal services of Serbian terminals with the ports Rijeka and Piraeus; Importance of the both road and rail route development by the transport development strategies of both Competitiveness of the environmentally friendly countries. intermodal route through the Black Sea port Constanta and the Danube river; As the part of the indicative extension of the TEN-T network to Western Balkan, there are and will be Direct COSCO Shipping container route from China available financial sources for the construction and main ports to the NELT terminal in Serbia, through the reconstruction of infrastructure, as well as for the port of Piraeus, with the high frequency of the shipping introduction of new intermodal services, harmonization service (5 times a week) and consequently shorter transit of legislation, customs procedures, etc.; times. Joining the EU of both Montenegro and Serbia; Serbia’s prioritizing of the construction and reconstruction of the Corridor X in comparison to the so-called Corridor XI, that will provide advantage for

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Improvement of the linkages of the existing and planned the intermodal routes to Serbia through the ports of intermodal routes and terminals with the national Rijeka, Koper and Piraeus in comparison to the economic centers, both in Montenegro and Serbia; intermodal route through the Port of Bar. Introduction of the direct shipping route from China to Serbia through the Port of Bar with competitive transit time and price; Development of new intermodal services for bulk cargo in order to attract the growing bulk cargo flows, particularly the flows of grains and fertilizers.

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Literature:

[1] Indicative extension of TEN-T network to Western Balkan, European Commission, Directorate – General for Mobility and Transport

[2] Overview of finalized, ongoing and planned transportation and construction infrastructural projects, Belgrade, Ministry of construction, transport and infrastructure, September 2018

[3] RailFreight (Russia to reconstruct Serbia's railway line to Montenegro | RailFreight.com) [4] https://www.nelt.com/logistika/intermodalni-terminal/

[5] https://www.leget.rs/transport_kontejnera.html

[6] https://logistikaitransport.com/luke-i-terminali/novi-intermodalni-terminal-na-luci-dunav-u- pancevu-dry-port-terminals/

[7] Statistical Yearbook of Serbia, 2019, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

[8] Customs Administration of Serbia, 2018

[9] Eurostat (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Inland_waterways_- _statistics_on_container_transport)

[10] Project Development Study of the Container Terminal in the Port of Novi Sad, DBS Gateway Region – regional and Transport Development in the Danube-Black Sea Region towards a Transnational Multiport Gateway Region, 2018. [11] Global Economic Prospects, A World Bank Flagship Report, 2015.

[12] Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/serbia/gdp-growth )

[13] World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/is.shp.good.tu) [14] World Bank (http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/219231554130333324/pdf/Reform-Momentum- Needed.pdf) [15] Port Governance Agency of Serbia, Analysis of activities in Serbian ports in 2019 (https://www.aul.gov.rs/prezentacije) [16] Systematization of bottlenecks, MultiAppro project, 2020.

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