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DP World (DPW.DI) DP World (DPW.DI) Equity Research Initiation Coverage January 7th, 2008 Current Price: USD 1.21* Country: United Arab Emirates Fair value Target: USD 1.47 Sector: Container Ports Recommendation: BUY Exchange: DIFX * Prices as at the close of 5th January 08 • DP World is one of the world’s largest pure-play global container terminal operators, managing a portfolio of 42 terminals in 22 countries. The operator’s roots go back to the unification of all container port operations in Dubai in the early 90’s. The success of the operator’s experience in Dubai prompted a strategy of targeted regional then global Sector Coverage Team expansion, culminating in the acquisition of CSX World Terminals in 2005 and P&O in 2006. • The operator, and as a result of a targeted global expansion strategy, is today the single most diversified operator in the world in terms of geographic coverage. The operator’s portfolio is Kareem Z. Murad also heavily weighted towards origination and destination traffic. This mix retained by DPW +9714 3199 757 implies more stability and higher yields than comparable operators that focus on specific [email protected] regions or that cater primarily to transshipment traffic. Walid Shihabi • DP World is generally well positioned to take advantage of highly favorable developments +9714 3199 750 taking shape in the global container terminal industry, as well as specific opportunities that will [email protected] likely present themselves going forward. Substantial confirmed investment in new capacity over the next ten years will likely almost double total gross capacity of the operator and its market share of available capacity in all major regions, especially in regions that are forecast to witness substantial growth in traffic, and shortage in capacity. • Our expectations regarding overall demand within the industry, capacity, utilization and resultant pricing, as well as specific regional factors, generate an overall trend of strong growth rates, constantly improving margins, and high rates of return by DP World for the foreseeable future. We initiate coverage on DP World with a BUY recommendation based on a target value of USD 1.47 per share, implying an upside of 21.5% to the current market price of USD 1.21 per share. Net Profits BV EPS BVPS RoAE EV/EBITDA P/E (USD '000) (USD '000) (USD) (USD) (%) (x) (x) Dec 09E 617,460 8,795,737 0.037 0.530 0.073 15.4 32.5 Dec 08E 528,880 8,178,277 0.032 0.493 0.067 17.8 38.0 Dec 07E 373,504 7,649,397 0.023 0.461 0.049 22.5 53.8 Dec 06 PF 247,616 616,610 0.015 0.037 na 33.1 81.1 DPW stock performance 1.4 52 week range (USD) 1.12 - 1.36 1.35 Number of shares ('000) 16,600,000 1.3 1.25 Free Float (%) 23% 1.2 1.15 Market Cap (USD '000) 20,086,000 1.1 Div Yld 2006 % na 1.05 1 * price as at close of 5th January 08 10-Dec-07 03-Dec-07 17-Dec-07 24-Dec-07 31-Dec-07 26-Nov-07 DP World Contents INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS: ........................................................3 COMPANY HISTORY AND OVERVIEW ............................................4 THE BEGINNINGS… ...................................................................................................................... 4 UNificatiON… ............................................................................................................................. 4 GOING GLObaL… .......................................................................................................................... 6 MORE RECENTLY… ........................................................................................................................ 7 JAFZA ............................................................................................................................................... 8 COmpaNY STRuctuRE AND SisteR COmpaNies ......................................................................10 MANAGEMENT team ...................................................................................................................11 GLOBAL FOOTPriNT ................................................................12 REGIONAL STRUCTURE.................................................................................................................13 REGIONAL OVERVIEW OF OPERATIONS: .....................................14 CURRENT AND EXPECTED Capacity AND THROUGHPUT: ........................................................19 CORPORate STRateGY GOING FORWARD .................................................................................22 THE CONTAINER TERMINAL MANAGEMENT BUSINESS .................23 CONtaiNER PORT EQuipmeNT: ..................................................................................................24 NatuRE OF CONcessiONS: OWNERSHip AND OpeRatiNG STRuctuRE .................................26 KEY INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS .........................29 CONtaiNERIZatiON: ....................................................................................................................29 GLObaL TRADE AND LIBERALIZatiON: .......................................................................................29 PRIVatiZatiON, THE ENTRY OF SHippiNG LiNes, AND GLObaL TERmiNAL OpeRatORS.......30 FactORS BEHIND THE EMERGENCE OF GLObaL TERMINAL OPERatORS (GTOS) ...................30 THE “BIG FOUR” .............................................................................................................................31 PRIMARY BUSINESS DRIVERS AND GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES: ....34 GROWTH IN GLObaL seabORNE TRANspORtatiON AND CONtaiNERIZatiON .....................35 GROWTH mismatcH BETWEEN GLObaL capacity AND THROUGHPUT ...............................37 THE CONtaiNER SHippiNG EQuatiON ........................................................................................42 OtHER IDENTIFIED AREAS OF POTENTIAL GROWTH: ................................................................46 Key RISKS: .....................................................................................................................................48 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS ......................................50 REVENUES AND DRIVERS .............................................................................................................50 COst stRuctuRE .........................................................................................................................51 SHARE OF PROFIT AND JOINT VENTURES AND ASSOciates ....................................................51 PROfitabiLity: .............................................................................................................................52 CAPEX AND Capacity ..................................................................................................................52 VALUATION ............................................................................53 FINANCIALS ...........................................................................55 APPENDIX: REGIONAL PrOfiLE AND KEY PORTS .........................58 Dubai.............................................................................................................................................58 MiddLE East ,CENTRAL Asia, AND AFRica..............................................................................60 EUROPE ..........................................................................................................................................66 WESTERN EUROPE .......................................................................................................................66 PORT PROfiLE: LONDON GateWay TERmiNAL ..........................................................................68 EASTERN EUROPE ........................................................................................................................69 PORT PROfiLE: THE PORT OF CONstaNta .................................................................................72 THE AMERICAS ..............................................................................................................................73 PORT PROfiLE: THE CaucedO CONtaiNER TERmiNAL ..............................................................75 SOUTH EAST AND EAST ASIA ......................................................................................................76 SOUTH ASIA ..................................................................................................................................81 OCEANIA ........................................................................................................................................82 January 7th, 2008 2 DP World Investment Highlights: • DP World is one of the world’s largest pure-play global container terminal operators, managing a portfolio of 42 terminals in 22 countries and a gross combined capacity of 48.6 mn TEUs. The operator achieved a gross throughput of 36.8 mn TEUs for 2006, which ranks it as the fourth largest container terminal operator in the world. • The operator’s roots go back to the unification of all container port operations in Dubai in the early 90’s. The success of the operator’s experience in Dubai prompted a strategy of targeted regional then global expansion, culminating in the acquisition of CSX World Terminals in 2005 and P&O in 2006. The company today continues to expand the scale of its global operations via investments in new capacity at existing terminals as well as new developments. • The operator, and as a result of a targeted global expansion strategy, is today the single most diversified operator in
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