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Shanghai Office Office leasing demand from a diversity of industries rebounds Shanghai Grade-A Office Market Report knightfrank.com.cn Q4 2020 SHANGHAI GRADE-A OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q4 2020 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK In the fourth quarter (Q4), there were in Q4 with the overall vacancy rate control, there will be over 500,000-sqm several new completions mainly located decreasing by 0.3 percentage point from office space to be added to the market in emerging and secondary business the previous quarter to 19.8%. Leasing in the first quarter of 2021 (Q1 2021). It is districts, adding 434,547-sqm office space demand from financial enterprises expected that the overall vacancy rate will to the Shanghai Grade-A office market. including asset management, securities pick up slightly due to high vacancy rates The new supply in 2020 totalled 1.14 and professional services, law firms, of new completions and the market rent million sqm , a YoY increase of 55%. accounting firms and design companies will continue to drop given that the rental performed strong. budget is strictly controlled by occupiers. Leasing demand was weak in the first three quarters this year, but rebounded On condition that the pandemic is under FIGURE 1: Shanghai Grade-A office market indicators[1] 2020 q4 2020 Q4 2020 q4 New supply Rent Vacancy rate 434,547 8.34 19.8% sqm RMB/sqm/day QoQ change: 30.1% QoQ change: 1.0% QoQ change: 0.3pps Outlook (Q1 2021) : Outlook (Q1 2021) : Outlook (Q1 2021) : Source: Knight Frank Research [1] Rent refers to average effective rent FIGURE 2: Shanghai office development pipeline, 2020-2023 sqm 3,000,000 South Jing’an (Nanjing West Road) Pudong (Lujiazui, Zhuyuan, Huamu, Century Avenue, 2,500,000 Qiantan, Post-expo) Xuhui (Xujiahui, Xuhui Binjiang, Huaihai Middle Road) Huangpu (People’s Square, Huaihai Middle Road, The Bund) 2,000,000 Changning (Zhongshan Park, New Hongqiao, Linkong) Putuo (Changfeng) Hongkou (North Bund, Sichuan North Road) 1,500,000 North Jing’an (Daning, Railway Station) Minhang (Hongqiao CBD,Xinzhuang) 1,000,000 Yangpu (Wujiaochang, Dalian Road, Yangpu Binjiang) 500,000 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Knight Frank Research 2 SHANGHAI GRADE-A OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q4 2020 SUPPLY AND DEMAND Located in Railway Station area of Jing’an District and jointly developed by Financial Street Holdings and Phoenix Property, the FIGURE 3: Grade-A office supply, net absorption and vacancy rate 1FS was completed in Q4, adding 70,000 '000 sqm Supply (left) Net absorption (left) Vacancy Rate (right) sqm office space to the market. Sunshine Riverside Building in Xuhui Binjiang was 3,000 30% completed in Q4, bringing approximately 2,500 115,000-sqm office space to the market. 25% Located adjacent to Hongqiao Road Metro 2,000 20% Station and developed by Anar Group, IM Shanghai was completed with a total GFA of 1,500 15% 140,000 sqm in Q4. 1,000 10% In Q4, the overal vacancy rate in Shanghai’s 500 5% Grade-A office market decreased by 0.3 percentage point from the previous quarter 0 0% to 19.8%. The total net absorption in 2020 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 increased significantly to 704,000 sqm due to a full recovery in demand. Source: Knight Frank Research Of new leases transactions in Q4, over 60% education sectors, leasing demand from companies’ demand in real estate, culture of the leasing demand came from domestic other sectors such as IT, manufacture, and enterntainment, retail and education companies. Domestic companies were still real estate, culture & enterntainment sectors was strong in Q4. the major players in the market. However, and trade picked up but in different office requirements tended to become more degrees. In the financial and professional Co-working brands played an active role in diversified in terms of sectors. Besides services sectors, domestic occupiers had the market. Distrii rented 4,200-sqm office financial, biopharmaceutical and on-line a high market share whilst multinational space in One East in Q4. RENTS In Q4, the average Grade-A office rent of Shanghai continued to drop by 1.0% QoQ to FIGURE 4: Grade-A office rental trend RMB8.34 per sqm per day or a YoY decrease RMB/sqm/day of 9.2%. Although the market rent continued 12.0 to decrease in Q4, the QoQ decline narrowed by approximately 1.6 percentage points. 10.0 The average rent in Core CBDs decreased 8.0 slightly by 0.2% QoQ to RMB10.83 per sqm 6.0 per day. The rent in Little Lujiazui stayed at the same level of Q3, and in Nanjing West 4.0 Road and Huaihai Middle Road areas, their 2.0 rents edged down slightly. Given the frequent leasing activity of financial institutions 0.0 and professional service enterprises in the Q1 Q2Q3Q4 Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4 Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4Q1 Q2Q3Q4 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 core area, the landlords had a high level of confidence. Except for offering rent-free Source: Knight Frank Research period, they were unwilling to lower the asking rents, which constituted an important reason why the market rents in Core CBDs TABLE 1: Major Grade-A office leasing transactions, Q4 2020 Area did not see a sharp decline. Area Building Tenant Type (sqm) Raffles City the China Renaissance North Bund 4,200 New Lease Bund Securities Huangpu Riverside One East Distrii 4,200 New Lease Qiantan New Bund Centre Rosefinch Investment 2,900 New Lease Huaihai Middle Road ICC One Valentino 1,000 New Lease Shanghai Fengjing Qiantan Crystal Plaza 700 New Lease Technology Little Lujiazui Jinmao Tower Probquant 664 New Lease Source: Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation 3 SHANGHAI GRADE-A OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q4 2020 INVESTMENT MARKET In Q4 2020, there were four en-bloc office 65% of buyers. It is also a trend for some Shanghai’s Tomorrow Square was finally transactions recorded in the investment technology enterprises and pharmaceutical sold through auction for RMB1.9907 billion market, for a total consideration of over enterprises with abundant funds to with a total GFA of 36,500 sqm. Shanghai RMB8 billion. The total amount of en-bloc purchase R&D buildings for their own use. Zhangjiang Hi-tech Park Development office sales reached over RMB32 billion in Company Limited sold the partial asset 2020 with a slight increase compared with Of all the en-bloc transactions in Q4, CCB owned by its wholly subsidiary to Hansen the previous year. The COVID-19 pandemic Life, a subsidiary of China Construction (Shanghai) Health Technology Company in 2020 did not curb investors’ enthusiasm Bank acquired Greenland Bund Tower Limited for approximately RMB900 for office assets and owner-occupiers 4 with 58,800-sqm Grade-A office and million. The sold asset includes the were the major players in the market. ancillary spaces for RMB5.55 billion. commercial properties located at No.287 on Of all en-bloc transactions in 2020, the This was another large-scaled financial Xiangke Road and No.1158 on Haike Road number of traditional financial insititutions institution settled down in Greenland in Pudong of Shanghai with a total GFA of including local banks, insurance and Bund after Bank of Shanghai and Sealand 21,900 sqm. security companies accounted for over Securites. The 7th to 23rd floors of SHANGHAI GRADE-A OFFICE market dasHboard Shanghai office inventory, rents and vacancy rates of major business districts Hongqiao CBD Zhongshan Park Nanjing West Road Railway Station People’s Square The Bund North Bund Inventory: 1,348 Inventory: 409 Inventory: 1,339 Inventory: 570 Inventory: 887 Inventory: 48.5 Inventory: 67.9 Rent: 5.3 Rent: 7.4 Rent: 10.7 Rent: 6.8 Rent: 8.4 Rent: 8.8 Rent: 8.1 VR: 29.4% VR: 9.0% VR: 7.4% VR: 27.2% VR: 11.5% VR: 14.0% VR: 41.3% Core CBD CBD Secondary business district Emerging business district Total Inventory 21.54 million sqm New Honqiao Xujiahui Xuhui Binjiang Qiantan Huaihai Middle Road Little Lujiazui Century Avenue Inventory: 1,355 Inventory: 494 Inventory: 497 Inventory: 762 Inventory: 953 Inventory: 2,787 Inventory: 943 Rent: 7.5 Rent: 7.9 Rent: 6.4 Rent: 6.4 Rent: 9.7 Rent: 11.5 Rent: 8.3 VR: 21.0% VR: 4.4% VR: 54.7% VR: 21.5% VR: 9.2% VR: 8.9% VR: 14.5% Source: Knight Frank Research Note: unit for market inventory – 1,000 sqm; rents using average effective rent at RMB/sqm/day; VR refers to average vacancy rate. 4 We like questions, if you’ve got one about our research, or would like some property advice, we would love to hear from you. Research & Consultancy Shanghai Office Services Timothy Chen Regina Yang Jonathan Rideout Senior Director, Strategic Advisory, Director, Head of Research & Consultancy, Head of Office Services, China Shanghai & Beijing Shanghai +86 21 6032 1769 +86 21 6032 1728 +86 21 6032 1713 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Martin Wong Mars Yin Associate Director, Senior Manager Research & Consultancy, Greater China Research & Consultancy +852 2846 7184 +86 21 6032 1730 [email protected] [email protected] RECENT MARKET - LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS China Commercial Beijing Office Shanghai Office Guangzhou Office Shenzhen Office Shanghai Logistics Real Estate Market Report Market Report Market Report Market Report Warehouse Market Investment Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q4 2020 Report Market Q3 2020 Knight Frank Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range Knight Frank Research of clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions Reports are available at and the public sector.
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