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Ireland in a Warmer World

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Ireland in a Warmer World Comhshaol, Oidreacht agus Rialtas Áitiúil Environment, Heritage and Local Government The Design Station (01) 847 7397 a Warme in r W nd o la r e ld Ir SCIENTIFIC PREDICTIONS OF THE IRISH CLIMATE IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY OF THE IRISH CLIMATE SCIENTIFIC PREDICTIONS IRELAND IN A WARMER WORLD IRELAND IN A WARMER S c y ie r u n t t n if e ic C P st re ir di -F ct ty ion en s o Tw f the the Irish Climate in Editors: Ray McGrath, Met Éireann and Peter Lynch, UCD Authors: Susan Dunne, Jenny Hanafin, Peter Lynch, Ray McGrath, Elisa Nishimura, Paul Nolan, J. Venkata Ratnam, Tido Semmler, Conor Sweeney and Shiyu Wang June 2008 Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) Ireland in a Warmer World Scientific Predictions of the Irish Climate in the Twenty-First Century Editors: Ray McGrath, Met Éireann and Peter Lynch, UCD Authors: Susan Dunne, Jenny Hanafin, Peter Lynch, Ray McGrath, Elisa Nishimura, Paul Nolan, J. Venkata Ratnam, Tido Semmler, Conor Sweeney and Shiyu Wang June 2008 Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) Acknowledgements The Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4I) project was supported and co-funded by Environmental Protection Agency, Sustainable Energy Ireland and the Higher Education Authority with resources provided by the Irish Government's National Development Plan (NDP) 2000-2006. The work was also supported by Met Éireann and by the CosmoGrid project, the latter funded under the Programme for Research in Third Level Institutions (PRTLI) administered by the Higher Education Authority under the National Development Plan and with partial support from the European Regional Development Fund. We would like to thank the model and data group at Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany for the ECHAM5-OM1 data, and the Rossby Centre at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute in Norrköping, Sweden, for the RCA3 model. Support from ECMWF and the SFI/HEA Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) for the provision of computational facilities is also gratefully acknowledged. The support received from Met Éireann, particularly from the IT and Climate and Observations Divisions, is also gratefully acknowledged. The project benefited from the work of several students who assisted in analyzing outputs: Michelle Dillon, Emily Gleeson, Steffi Gleixner, Emilia Main, Gillian Whelan and Renate Wilcke. Disclaimer Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the material contained in this publication, complete accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Neither the funders nor the authors/editors accept any responsibility whatsoever for loss or damage occasioned or claimed to have been occasioned, in part or in full, as a consequence of any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of a matter contained in this publication. All or part of this publication may be reproduced without further permission, provided the source is acknowledged. Copyright ® 2008 ISBN: 9 780952 123255 Editors: Ray McGrath, Met Éireann Peter Lynch, UCD Authors: Susan Dunne, Jenny Hanafin, Peter Lynch, Ray McGrath, Elisa Nishimura, Paul Nolan, J. Venkata Ratnam, Tido Semmler, Conor Sweeney and Shiyu Wang Summary The challenge of global climate change, and its potentially devastating consequences, are now widely acknowledged. Climate scientists throughout the world are working to increase our knowledge of climate processes and our ability to anticipate the nature and magnitude of changes resulting from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. In Ireland, the C4I Project (Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland) has been in operation for five years. A substantial national climate modelling capability has been built, and a comprehensive data-base of results on the future climate of Ireland is now available on the C4I website (http://www.c4i.ie) for the benefit of Irish scientists, policy makers and other users. This report describes Ireland’s changing climate, based on a comprehensive series of computer simulations. The computations were carried out by the C4I team of scientists at Met Éireann and at the UCD Meteorology & Climate Centre. The first phase of the C4I Project finished in December, 2007, but the collaborative work is continuing. The background to the project, and the regional climate model (RCM) approach to predicting changes in the climate, are reviewed in the opening chapter. Using a regional climate model, a range of climate simulations for the twenty-first century has been completed. Uncertainties in the predictions are reduced by combining several different model simulations in an ensemble. This ensemble procedure is reviewed in Chapter 2. The EU-funded ENSEMBLES Project is also described. A complete review of the principal results emerging from the Project is presented in Chapter 2. For a brief summary of the key results and conclusions, see box following this summary on page (v). The impact of climate change on storm surges is discussed in Chapter 3. Surge data were produced using the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) of Rutgers University. This model consistently reproduces the sea level variability in Irish waters. The results show an increase in storm surge events around Irish coastal areas in a warmer climate. In Chapter 4, the impact of climate change on North Atlantic wave heights is investigated, with a particular focus on coastal regions surrounding Ireland. While the impact is seasonally dependent, there is evidence that extreme wave heights may increase by up to 10% in some Irish waters. Chapter 5 describes an investigation into the impact of warmer ocean temperatures on storminess. The results show an increase in the frequency of very intense cyclones, and also increases in the extreme values of wind and precipitation associated with them. This implies an increased risk of storm damage and flooding in vulnerable Irish coastal areas. The observed trends in sea level and sea surface temperature around Ireland are studied in Chapter 6. Since the 1980s there has been a general warming trend of 0.3-0.7°C per decade in Irish waters, comparable to the trend over land. This is consistent with what has been observed globally and is expected to continue over the coming decades. Sea level rise will also exacerbate the impacts of changing storm surge and wave patterns in coastal areas and may also affect water tables through salt intrusion. page III The impacts of climate change on hydrology are considered in Chapter 7. Nine Irish river catchments are modelled, and an amplification of the seasonal cycle across the country, with a rise in winter stream flow and a reduction in summer flow, is found. Increased winter flow means an elevated risk of flooding. Decreases in summer stream flow will have significant consequences for water availability, water quality, fisheries and recreational water use. A comparison between statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling is presented in Chapter 8. The two methods are directly compared for their ability to predict precipitation over Ireland. There are differences in detail of the results produced by the two approaches, but the overall signal of wetter winters and drier summers is reflected consistently by both methods. Renewable energy sources are of growing importance. The impact of climate change on available wind energy is considered in Chapter 9. The simulations show an increase of about 10% in available wind power in future winter months in the middle of the century and a decrease of a comparable magnitude in the summer months. Increasing the horizontal resolution of the downscaling grid has a positive impact on the quality of the winds, since local effects, such as the distortion of the airflow by surface features, are better resolved. Chapter 10 describes some high-resolution experiments using the MM5 model, a limited-area non-hydrostatic model. The benefits of higher resolution for these simulations were not as clear as expected, and suggest that much more work to develop parameterization schemes suitable for this resolution is required. Until this is done, the substantial additional computational cost of the highest resolution simulations is probably not justified. The influence of climate change on ozone concentrations and ultra-violet radiation in Ireland is described in Chapter 11. This study relates ozone concentrations to stratospheric circulation and temperature patterns. It suggests that the recovery in the atmospheric ozone may be slower than anticipated from a reduction in CFC emissions. Risk of skin cancer in Ireland will remain significant. Moreover, a warmer Irish climate is likely to increase outdoor leisure activities and potentially increase the exposure to damaging UV-B. The following chapter investigates the influence of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand in Ireland. Energy demand has already slightly decreased in the south of the country. A clear, continuing decrease in demand is predicted for the rest of this century. In Chapter 13, the expertise that has been developed through the C4I Project, and the climate modelling capability that has been built, is reviewed. Strong international links have been made with other climate-related projects, such as ENSEMBLES and the EC-Earth Project. Met Éireann, in collaboration with the UCD Meteorology and Climate Centre and the Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC), will continue the collaborative modelling work to predict Ireland’s future climate with increasing precision and confidence. Some of the key scientific issues to be addressed in future work are reviewed in this chapter. A full list of publications, conference presentations, and other outputs of the C4I Project, completes the report. The primary output is the comprehensive data-base of model results, which can be accessed on the C4I website (http://www.c4i.ie). This provides a wide range of simulation data (e.g. time series and maps of weather elements for individual simulations). We plan to develop and extend the range of products in this resource as the climate modelling collaboration continues.
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