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Economy August 2018

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Economy August 2018 Commission of Inquiry Vision for Hampshire 2050 Core Evidence Base Hampshire County Council Economy August 2018 Contents Foreword 3 Executive Summary 4 List of Tables and Figures 12 1. ECONOMY & BUSINESS 15 1.1 Economic activity across Hampshire 16 1.2 Economic growth and contribution to growth over time 18 1.3 Economic prosperity across Hampshire 22 1.4 Shift to services and the rise of knowledge-intensive services 28 1.5 Industrial specialisation 32 1.6 The labour market, competitiveness and productivity challenge 37 1.7 Hampshire businesses 46 1.8 High-growth businesses 61 1.9 Internationalisation 66 1.10 The outlook for Hampshire’s economy 78 2. INFRASTRUCTURE & INVESTMENT 87 2.1 Physical infrastructure 87 2.2 Digital infrastructure 91 2.3 Business space 95 2.4 Housing 101 2.5 Inward investment and foreign owned businesses 105 3. INNOVATION & SKILLS 110 3.1 Expenditure on Research & Development (R&D) 110 3.2 Patents 114 3.3 Knowledge Intensive Sectors 116 3.4 Science & Technology Sectors 122 3.5 Skills 129 Further information 132 References 133 Endnotes 137 Page | 2 Foreword Hampshire County Council has established a Commission of Inquiry to inform a Vision for Hampshire 2050 which will contribute to the future prosperity, quality of life, and protection and enhancement of the character and environment of Hampshire. The Commission is being undertaken under the following 6 themes: 1. Demographic and societal challenges 2. Economy 3. Work, skills and lifestyle 4. Environment and quality of place 5. Mobility, Connectivity and Energy 6. Rural Hampshire For each theme we are considering: Macro global and national trends and how these might represent threats and opportunities for Hampshire; What impacts we might be able to influence; Any specific actions or interventions which the public sector might have to consider to best prepare Hampshire for such trends/impacts. Evidence is being gathered through a targeted call for evidence from specified experts and an open call for evidence. Evidence will be considered at hearings for each theme by selected Commissioners. This report represents evidence prepared and evaluated by the Economic and Business Intelligence Service (EBIS), part of Hampshire County Council’s Research & Intelligence function, to support the Economy theme of the Commission. It primarily focuses on the current profile of the Hampshire economy and trends associated with key measures of the economy. David Fletcher, Assistant Director of Economic Development, Hampshire County Council Page | 3 Executive Summary Using any conventional measure, Hampshire has one of the most successful economies in the UK. In 2016 Hampshire’s economic output (Gross Value Added) totalled almost £50bn. Close to one in every five pounds of economic output is generated in Hampshire making it the largest sub-regional economy in the South East. Economic output in Hampshire has increased by over 90% in nominal (inflation unadjusted) terms between 1998 and 2016. Hampshire Economy…Today £ largest sub regional best performing most export relatively high business sector strengths in economy in the South labour market in the intensive county in survival rates, relatively ICT & digital media, East of England country the country high business and jobs aerospace & defence, density marine/maritime Economic growth in Hampshire, like the rest of the country has been characterised by two distinctive phases - the pre-recession period, from 1998 through to 2007 and the post-recession period. The real (inflation adjusted) growth in the economy was 1.6% per annum (p.a.) since 2009 compared to 2.3% p.a. before the recession. Over the long run faster growth in economic output in Hampshire was held back by sluggish performance in the two cities. Average incomes per head of population in Hampshire are higher than the UK average, but on this measure Hampshire is less prosperous than the South East economy. It is important to note there are differences in performance between Hampshire and the County area, with the County area generally performing better. The relative decline of Southampton and Portsmouth has constrained the relative growth in economic prosperity in Hampshire since 1998. Just like the rest of the country the distribution of economic activity and economic prosperity within Hampshire is not uniform – there are spatial disparities in economic performance in Hampshire. Significant interdependencies between the areas within Hampshire Page | 4 characterised by significant levels of commuting imply that the relative levels of household incomes per head of population in many areas are relatively high. In common with the rest of the South East and the UK economies, a marked shift in the structure of the Hampshire economy has continued over the past two decades for which we have local data. Economic activity has continued to shift away from manufacturing and towards services. Hampshire has seen a relatively strong growth in a number of consumer services activities and in several business-to-business knowledge intensive services such as information & communication and professional services. The rise of finance has been more muted but insurance was another sector that has performed strongly over the long run. The spatial distribution of high- productivity knowledge intensive services is one of the main factors that help to explain spatial differences in economic performance within Hampshire. Rise of consumer service and knowledge-intensive services in Hampshire In its simples form, economic growth is driven by two factors; how many people are in work and their productivity. Hampshire’s labour market has performed exceptionally well. In 2017 the employment rate in Hampshire reached 79.8% of all people of working age, above the national and the South East averages. The rate in the County Area reached 82%, the highest shire authority rate in the country. Page | 5 Labour productivity in Hampshire is slightly above the national average but below the South East average. Labour productivity in Hampshire has increased relative to the national and the South East averages but Hampshire has a large productivity gap with some of the best performing economies in the South East and its global competitors. Hampshire exported around £15.6bn of goods and services in 2015 and Hampshire appears to be the largest exporting region in the South East. Over a fifth of all South East exports come from Hampshire (around 19% of service exports and close to 23% of goods exports). The openness of the Hampshire economy is illustrated by the fact that exports accounted for about 32% of its GVA in 2015. Independent research by Oxford Economics suggests that exports accounted for 37.8% of the County area GVA in 2014 and on this measure the County area was the most export intensive county in the UK. Information & communication are the largest export category in Hampshire but other high-productivity categories such as finance & insurance are not far behind. A large and diverse business population is one of the main factors that contributed to Hampshire’s success over the long-run. There are nearly 86,000 businesses in Hampshire, or 18.4% of all businesses in the South East. However, business density in Hampshire is below the South East and the national average, but this is primarily down to the performance of Southampton and several smaller local authorities. Labour demand in Hampshire is marginally below the South East average but above the national average. The vast majority of businesses in Hampshire are micro businesses yet large businesses and SMEs make a disproportionate contribution to the economy in terms of output (GVA) and jobs. Hampshire has between 400 and 805 high-growth businesses, or over a fifth of all high-growth businesses in the South East. Hampshire is over-represented amongst high-growth firms in the South East as it has a higher proportion of high-growth firms relative to its share of all firms in the South East. Between 2011 and 2015 the number of high-growth businesses in Hampshire increased much faster than both the regional or national averages. Future growth in Hampshire is likely to be driven by high-growth indigenous firms as well as foreign investment. This will not only create employment opportunities but Page | 6 also contribute to productivity growth through the inflow and better use of knowledge and new technologies. Firm level data suggests that there are about 1,200 foreign owned businesses in Hampshire. About one in three foreign owned businesses comes from an EU member state but the US accounts for the largest single share of foreign owned companies in Hampshire. New businesses (business births) contribute not just to job creation and economic growth, but newly born businesses often stimulate innovation and facilitate the adoption of new technologies. Business births therefore increase the competitiveness of Hampshire’s business population and this helps to boost productivity and economic performance across the wider economy. Business births in Hampshire are above the South East average but below the national average. While business birth rates provide useful information on dynamism in the economy, the ability to survive and grow for up to five years after creation matters more. Hampshire has a high business survival rate with economically more prosperous sub-areas and districts across Hampshire having higher survival rates. Hampshire has a relatively large number of businesses in several higher value- added and/or strategically important sectors, but these higher value-added activities are often concealed within the existing Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) of economic activity. Financial & business services, ICT & digital media, aerospace & defence, logistics and marine and tourism are some of the most productive and/or strategically important sectors for the Hampshire economy. These sectors are either scattered in a number of locations or more concentrated in one or two locations and they have one thing in common - these high-productivity sectors account for a relatively small share of Hampshire’s employment.
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