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Climate and Changing Winter Distribution of Alcids in the Northwest Atlantic

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Climate and Changing Winter Distribution of Alcids in the Northwest Atlantic City University of New York (CUNY) CUNY Academic Works Publications and Research College of Staten Island 2015 Climate and changing winter distribution of alcids in the Northwest Atlantic Richard R. Veit CUNY College of Staten Island Lisa L. Manne CUNY College of Staten Island How does access to this work benefit ou?y Let us know! More information about this work at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu/si_pubs/166 Discover additional works at: https://academicworks.cuny.edu This work is made publicly available by the City University of New York (CUNY). Contact: [email protected] ORIGINAL RESEARCH published: 10 April 2015 doi: 10.3389/fevo.2015.00038 Climate and changing winter distribution of alcids in the Northwest Atlantic Richard R. Veit 1, 2* and Lisa L. Manne 1, 2 1 Department of Biology, College of Staten Island/City University of New York, New York, NY, USA, 2 The Graduate Center, City University of New York, New York, NY, USA Population level impacts upon seabirds from changing climate are increasingly evident, and include effects on phenology, migration, dispersal, annual survivorship, and reproduction. Most population data on seabirds derive from nesting colonies; documented climate impacts on winter ecology are scarce. We studied interannual variability in winter abundance of six species of alcids (Charadriiformes, Alcidae) from a 58-year time series of data collected in Massachusetts 1954–2011. We used counts of birds taken during fall and winter from coastal vantage points. Counts were made by Edited by: Morten Frederiksen, amateur birders, but coverage was consistent in timing and location. We found significant Aarhus University, Denmark association between winter abundance of all six species of alcids and climate, indexed Reviewed by: by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), at two temporal scales: (1) significant linear trends at Morten Frederiksen, the 58-year scale of the time series; and (2) shorter term fluctuations corresponding to Aarhus University, Denmark Tycho Anker-Nilssen, the 5–8 year periodicity of NAO. Thus, variation in winter abundance of all six species of Norwegian Institute for Nature alcids was significantly related to the combined short-term and longer-term components Research, Norway Russell Barry Wynn, of variation in NAO. Two low-Arctic species (Atlantic Puffin and Black Guillemot) peaked National Oceanography Centre, UK during NAO positive years, while two high Arctic species (Dovekie and Thick-billed Murre) *Correspondence: peaked during NAO negative years. For Common Murres and Razorbills, southward Richard R. Veit, shifts in winter distribution have been accompanied by southward expansion of breeding Department of Biology, College of Staten Island/City University of New range, and increase within the core of the range. The proximate mechanism governing York, 2800 Victory Blvd., Staten these changes is unclear, but, as for most other species of seabirds whose distributions Island, New York, 10314 NY, USA [email protected] have changed with climate, seems likely to be through their prey. Keywords: alcid, climate change, NAO, multiscale, Northwest Atlantic, Massachusetts Specialty section: This article was submitted to Interdisciplinary Climate Studies, a section of the journal Frontiers in Introduction Ecology and Evolution Fluctuating oceanic climate impacts population size (Montevecchi and Myers, 1997; Thompson Received: 01 December 2014 and Ollason, 2001), survivorship (Sandvik et al., 2005), fecundity (Guinet et al., 1998; Durant et al., Accepted: 26 March 2015 2003, 2005; Wanless et al., 2007), phenology (Aebischer et al., 1990; Gjerdrum et al., 2003; Fred- Published: 10 April 2015 eriksen et al., 2004), and both summer and winter distribution (Veit et al., 1997; Manne, 2013) Citation: of seabirds. Impacts of climate shifts on seabirds occur at multiple temporal scales, that can be Veit RR and Manne LL (2015) Climate < and changing winter distribution of loosely grouped into “short-term” ( 1 year: Hunt et al., 1992; Veit et al., 1996), “medium term” alcids in the Northwest Atlantic. (5–10 years) corresponding to fluctuations indexed by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Front. Ecol. Evol. 3:38. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and long-term trends (>10 years) that may also reflect longer doi: 10.3389/fevo.2015.00038 term fluctuations that our 50 year time series is less likely to resolve (Veit and Montevecchi, 2006). Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution | www.frontiersin.org 1 April 2015 | Volume 3 | Article 38 Veit and Manne Multiscale NAO impacts on alcids Since seabirds in general have long lifespans and produce rela- ∼1930–1975 to one of predominantly positive values from 1975 tively few young per year, they are adapted to tolerate short-term to 2000 (Hurrell and Dickson, 2004; Irons et al., 2008). The environmental disturbances (Veit and Montevecchi, 2006) and more recent period of positive values reflects colder conditions populations have recovered from such short-term catastrophes in the Northwest Atlantic; conversely, negative NAO years are as El Niño events (Schreiber, 2002). Population responses to per- associated with warmer waters. Documented and statistically sig- sistent, long-term changes are less well-documented but climate nificant shifts in intensity and direction of NAO have occurred change on the scale of decades has caused substantial changes in in recent years and, as shown below, these shifts have clearly the range and distribution of seabirds (Montevecchi and Myers, impacted the biology of the North Atlantic (Hurrell and Dickson, 1997; Veit and Montevecchi, 2006; Gaston and Woo, 2008; Nisbet 2004). et al., 2013). At a decadal scale, southward shifts in alcid abundance seem Unambiguous, if complex, changes have occurred in the phys- to match shifts in NAO (Figure 1). Veit and Guris (2008) found ical and biological characteristics of the North Atlantic Ocean statistical links between Razorbill (Alca torda) and Dovekie (Alle during this century (Stenseth and Mysterud, 2002; Hurrell and alle) abundance and NAO in New England waters. Razorbills Dickson, 2004; Stenseth et al., 2004), and these changes have have been increasing steadily since the 1980s, with peak abun- had substantial biological impacts, even though ascribing such dance occurring in NAO positive years, while Dovekies have impacts unambiguously to climate is daunting (Hemery et al., increased dramatically since about 2005, after a general absence 2008; Overholtz and Link, 2009). Difficult to disentangle from since about 1975. Abundance of Dovekies in New England has climate-induced impacts on seabirds are those resulting from been more erratic, but also statistically related to NAO, with changes in fish stocks due to commercial fisheries. For exam- maximum numbers occurring in NAO-negative years (a pattern ple, the spectacular collapse of northwestern Atlantic Cod stocks strongly supported by maximum abundance in 2010–2011) and in the early 1990s, and the decline of the herring fishery in thus opposite to the pattern shown by Razorbills. The proxi- the late 1960s and early 1970s were almost certainly primar- mate mechanism for the link between seabirds and NAO remains ily the result of overfishing (Fogarty and Murawski, 1998). The unclear, but the majority of seabird-climate links has proventobe collapse of these stocks has had broad-reaching impacts on indirect, and based on changes in seabird prey (Frederiksen et al., other components of the ecosystem, including seabirds (Fogarty 2004; Durant et al., 2005). and Murawski, 1998; Montevecchi and Stenhouse, 2002). Other changes are not so easily attributed to any one particular cause. Alcid Winter Range For example, the enormous increase of sand lance (Ammodytes Alcids are notoriously erratic in their dispersal southwards dur- spp.) during the 1970s in the Northwest Atlantic (Sherman et al., ing winter (Nettleship and Birkhead, 1985; Gaston and Jones, 1981) may have resulted from the disappearance of herring and 1998) and some species, especially Dovekies, are prone to south- other predators due to overfishing, but other factors may have ward irruptions, very likely in response to abrupt changes in prey been important as well. Many seabirds benefitted from the sand availability (Gaston and Jones, 1998). Despite such variability lance increase (Veit and Petersen, 1993; Nisbet et al., 2013), but during winter, long-term changes in abundance off the U.S. East whether any of these changes has a link to climate forcing is Coast are apparent (Veit and Guris, 2008; Nisbet et al., 2013). unknown, and it is therefore difficult to disentangle whether As recent major shifts in oceanographic climate have also been impacts on seabirds derive from climate, fisheries, a combination described for the North Atlantic (Hurrell and Dickson, 2004; of the two, or some other factor. Regular et al., 2010), it behooves us to ask whether shifts in winter Much of the previous work on this subject has focused on the alcid distribution are related to changes in oceanographic climate. northeast Atlantic, where changing climate is having a measur- Innovations of this study include an extensive uninterrupted, 58 able effect upon seabirds, and it is thus highly likely that such year time series on seabird abundance from Massachusetts and effects have occurred in the Northwest Atlantic as well. There the fact that it documents the winter, non-breeding distribu- are, however, interesting differences in the direction of climate- tion of these birds. We therefore hypothesize that fluctuations in related
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