Global Storm Tide Modeling with ADCIRC V55: Unstructured Mesh Design and Performance
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Verification of a Multimodel Storm Surge Ensemble Around New York City and Long Island for the Cool Season
922 WEATHERANDFORECASTING V OLUME 26 Verification of a Multimodel Storm Surge Ensemble around New York City and Long Island for the Cool Season TOM DI LIBERTO * AND BRIAN A. C OLLE School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York NICKITAS GEORGAS AND ALAN F. B LUMBERG Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey ARTHUR A. T AYLOR Meteorological Development Laboratory, NOAA/NWS, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, Maryland (Manuscript received 21 November 2010, in final form 27 June 2011) ABSTRACT Three real-time storm surge forecasting systems [the eight-member Stony Brook ensemble (SBSS), the Stevens Institute of Technology’s New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (SIT-NYHOPS), and the NOAA Extratropical Storm Surge (NOAA-ET) model] are verified for 74 available days during the 2007–08 and 2008–09 cool seasons for five stations around the New York City–Long Island region. For the raw storm surge forecasts, the SIT-NYHOPS model has the lowest root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) on average, while the NOAA-ET has the largest RMSEs after hour 24 as a result of a relatively large negative surge bias. The SIT-NYHOPS and SBSS also have a slight negative surge bias after hour 24. Many of the underpredicted surges in the SBSS ensemble are associated with large waves at an offshore buoy, thus illustrating the potential importance of nearshore wave breaking (radiation stresses) on the surge pre- dictions. A bias correction using the last 5 days of predictions (BC) removes most of the surge bias in the NOAA-ET model, with the NOAA-ET-BC having a similar level of accuracy as the SIT-NYHOPS-BC for positive surges. -
Cruising Guide to the Philippines
Cruising Guide to the Philippines For Yachtsmen By Conant M. Webb Draft of 06/16/09 Webb - Cruising Guide to the Phillippines Page 2 INTRODUCTION The Philippines is the second largest archipelago in the world after Indonesia, with around 7,000 islands. Relatively few yachts cruise here, but there seem to be more every year. In most areas it is still rare to run across another yacht. There are pristine coral reefs, turquoise bays and snug anchorages, as well as more metropolitan delights. The Filipino people are very friendly and sometimes embarrassingly hospitable. Their culture is a unique mixture of indigenous, Spanish, Asian and American. Philippine charts are inexpensive and reasonably good. English is widely (although not universally) spoken. The cost of living is very reasonable. This book is intended to meet the particular needs of the cruising yachtsman with a boat in the 10-20 meter range. It supplements (but is not intended to replace) conventional navigational materials, a discussion of which can be found below on page 16. I have tried to make this book accurate, but responsibility for the safety of your vessel and its crew must remain yours alone. CONVENTIONS IN THIS BOOK Coordinates are given for various features to help you find them on a chart, not for uncritical use with GPS. In most cases the position is approximate, and is only given to the nearest whole minute. Where coordinates are expressed more exactly, in decimal minutes or minutes and seconds, the relevant chart is mentioned or WGS 84 is the datum used. See the References section (page 157) for specific details of the chart edition used. -
11. Guyton Learning to Talk Weather in the Coastal Philippines.Pages
LEARNING TO TALK WEATHER IN THE COASTAL PHILIPPINES SHELLEY TUAZON GUYTON NOTES FROM THE FIELD Learning to Talk Weather in the Coastal Philippines SHELLEY TUAZON GUYTON Ph.D. Candidate in Anthropology University of California, Riverside Abstract In these notes from the field, I illustrate some impressions from my research on disaster communication in Tacloban City, a highly urbanized area on an island coast in the central Philippines. Coastal residents vulnerable to storm-related hazards (particularly storm surges, flooding, and landslides) gather weather information daily, from multiple resources —texting; radio; television; contact from government authorities; and knowledge shared with family, friends, and neighbors. Residents navigate scientific terminology, such as Low Pressure Area, and refer to their own experiences with storms to mitigate their risk. In this essay, I show that “weather talk” in this location takes a level of “know-how” that I am still trying to learn. Residing in Tacloban City, Philip- Since I registered my mobile pines, I find that I must consider infor- number to the Community Climate Guide mation from a variety of media and my own and Response (CCGR) service, I have past experiences to calculate my risk with received weather updates almost daily— each passing storm. These notes from the usually around 6:00 AM. Casual weather field provide an illustration of the daily updates will say something like: “Mostly juggle of weather updates that aim to ensure cloudy with a little rain,” or “Generally personal safety in the coastal Philippines. sunny and beautiful.” Today’s weather At 6:18 AM, I wake up to the update, however, forebodes a storm. -
Steps Towards Modeling Community Resilience Under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering Article Steps towards Modeling Community Resilience under Climate Change: Hazard Model Development Kendra M. Dresback 1,*, Christine M. Szpilka 1, Xianwu Xue 2, Humberto Vergara 3, Naiyu Wang 4, Randall L. Kolar 1, Jia Xu 5 and Kevin M. Geoghegan 6 1 School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019, USA 2 Environmental Modeling Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park, MD 20740, USA 3 Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorology, University of Oklahoma/National Weather Center, Norman, OK 73019, USA 4 College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China 5 School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China 6 Northwest Hydraulic Consultants, Seattle, WA 98168, USA * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +1-405-325-8529 Received: 30 May 2019; Accepted: 11 July 2019; Published: 16 July 2019 Abstract: With a growing population (over 40%) living in coastal counties within the U.S., there is an increasing risk that coastal communities will be significantly impacted by riverine/coastal flooding and high winds associated with tropical cyclones. Climate change could exacerbate these risks; thus, it would be prudent for coastal communities to plan for resilience in the face of these uncertainties. In order to address all of these risks, a coupled physics-based modeling system has been developed that simulates total water levels. This system uses parametric models for both rainfall and wind, which only require essential information (e.g., track and central pressure) generated by a hurricane model. -
History of the Regional Office
PHYSICAL PROFILE Eastern Visayas or Region VIII is composed of the main Islands of Leyte, Biliran, and Samar joined by the famous 2.7 kilometers San Juanico Steel Bridge (Leyte – Samar) spanning across the San Juanico Strait. It is composed of six (6) provinces, namely: Leyte, Southern Leyte, Biliran, Samar (Western Samar), Eastern Samar and Northern Samar. GEOLOGICAL “WONDERS” Biri group of Islands is a cluster of eight (8) islands and islets located at the northernmost part of Samar Island. It is one of the favorite destination of local and foreign tourist who marvel on its beautiful and impressive rock exposures, lagoons and overall sceneries. This is the reason why in 1996, the local Mines and Geosciences Bureau recommended that the island be declared as a GEOLOGICAL RESERVE/MONUMENT to preserve and protect the shoreline outcrops. Sohoton Natural Bridge National park is located 25 kilometers northeast of Basey, Samar. It is known for the natural beauty of its caves, subterranean rivers, waterfalls and limestone formation. There is the magnificent stone bridge, from which the park got its name, connecting two mountain ridges where underneath flows the Sohoton River. Caves with unique and exquisite calcite formations are situated in towering and rugged limestone cliffs along the river. We have there the Panhulugan Cave I, the largest and most spectacular cave in the area, the Panhulugan II cave that cuts into Panhulugan Cliffs; Sohoton Cave, a very large cave with a cathedral-like cavern; Bugasan and Capigtan caves which are smaller caves with chambers where ancient remains had been found. BRIEF HISTORY OF THE REGIONAL OFFICE The Mines and Geosciences Bureau Regional Office No. -
CRUISING GUIDE to SOUTHEAST ASIA VOL 1 Supplement No.6
CRUISING GUIDE TO SOUTHEAST ASIA Page 30 Radio { voice forecasts Singapore no longer gives voice weather forecasts. VOL 1 The only service is now via Inmarsat and on their website www.gov.sg/metsin. Supplement No.6 You may be able to pick up the USCG May 2004 computerised voice forecast from Guam on 6501kHz or 13089kHz at 0330, 0930, 1530 and 1st edition 1998 ISBN 0 85288 296 3 2130. Page 31 Weatherfax The US Navy no longer issue forecasts on weatherfax. Weather websites South China Sea, Philippines, Gulf of Thailand Try any of the following: to Singapore (including East Malaysia, Brunei, http://intranet.mssinet.gov.sg/~rndops/ship/gif Hong Kong and Macau) www.gov.sg/metsin/flm.html#mslp for Singapore, Stephen Davies & Elaine Morgan Malacca Straits and South China Sea maps www.weather.gov.hk or All new or significantly modified entries are marked www.info.gov.hk/hko/wxinfo good for the South by an asterisk. Please send updates and corrections China Sea by post or email to [email protected] for forwarding www.oceanweather.com/data/indian.gif adequate or send them direct to us, [email protected]. If but not inspired your corrections include GPS positions please state www.weatheronline.com though in our experience clearly whether coordinates are in degrees and the German version, www.wetteronline.com is less minutes with decimal places or with minutes divided dumbed down into seconds. www.saa.noaa.gov US government site, so be * Bearings and courses prepared to search around All the bearings and courses given are true unless www.edwards.indian.html and otherwise specified in the text for a particular www.edwards.cc/tcp/wpacific.html for cyclone bearing or course . -
Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models
Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models The MIT Faculty has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters. Citation Fox-Kemper, Baylor, et al. “Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models.” Frontiers in Marine Science 6 (February 2019): 65. © The Authors As Published http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00065 Publisher Frontiers Media SA Version Final published version Citable link https://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/125142 Terms of Use Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license Detailed Terms https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ REVIEW published: 26 February 2019 doi: 10.3389/fmars.2019.00065 Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models Baylor Fox-Kemper 1*, Alistair Adcroft 2,3, Claus W. Böning 4, Eric P. Chassignet 5, Enrique Curchitser 6, Gokhan Danabasoglu 7, Carsten Eden 8, Matthew H. England 9, Rüdiger Gerdes 10,11, Richard J. Greatbatch 4, Stephen M. Griffies 2,3, Robert W. Hallberg 2,3, Emmanuel Hanert 12, Patrick Heimbach 13, Helene T. Hewitt 14, Christopher N. Hill 15, Yoshiki Komuro 16, Sonya Legg 2,3, Julien Le Sommer 17, Simona Masina 18, Simon J. Marsland 9,19,20, Stephen G. Penny 21,22,23, Fangli Qiao 24, Todd D. Ringler 25, Anne Marie Treguier 26, Hiroyuki Tsujino 27, Petteri Uotila 28 and Stephen G. Yeager 7 1 Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States, 2 Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, 3 NOAA Geophysical -
Dynamic Load Balancing for Predictions of Storm Surge and Coastal Flooding
Environmental Modelling and Software 140 (2021) 105045 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Environmental Modelling and Software journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/envsoft Dynamic load balancing for predictions of storm surge and coastal flooding Keith J. Roberts a,1,*, J. Casey Dietrich b, Damrongsak Wirasaet a, William J. Pringle a, Joannes J. Westerink a a Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 156 Fitzpatrick Hall, Notre Dame, IN, USA b Dept. of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Mann Hall, USA ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: As coastal circulation models have evolved to predict storm-induced flooding, they must include progressively Storm surge more overland regions that are normally dry, to where now it is possible for more than half of the domain to be Coastal flooding needed in none or only some of the computations. While this evolution has improved real-time forecasting and Dynamic load balancing long-term mitigation of coastal flooding,it poses a problem for parallelization in an HPC environment, especially Finite element modeling for static paradigms in which the workload is balanced only at the start of the simulation. In this study, a dy Zoltan toolkit ParMETIS namic rebalancing of computational work is developed for a finite-element-based, shallow-water, ocean circu lation model of extensive overland flooding.The implementation has a low overhead cost, and we demonstrate a realistic hurricane-forced coastal -
Physically Based Assessment of Hurricane Surge Threat Under Climate Change Ning Lin1*, Kerry Emanuel1, Michael Oppenheimer2 and Erik Vanmarcke3
ARTICLES PUBLISHED ONLINE: 14 FEBRUARY 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1389 Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change Ning Lin1*, Kerry Emanuel1, Michael Oppenheimer2 and Erik Vanmarcke3 Storm surges are responsible for much of the damage and loss of life associated with landfalling hurricanes. Understanding how global warming will affect hurricane surges thus holds great interest. As general circulation models (GCMs) cannot simulate hurricane surges directly, we couple a GCM-driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under projected climates and assess surge threat, as an example, for New York City (NYC). Struck by many intense hurricanes in recorded history and prehistory, NYC is highly vulnerable to storm surges. We show that the change of storm climatology will probably increase the surge risk for NYC; results based on two GCMs show the distribution of surge levels shifting to higher values by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise (SLR). The combined effects of storm climatology change and a 1 m SLR may cause the present NYC 100-yr surge flooding to occur every 3–20 yr and the present 500-yr flooding to occur every 25–240 yr by the end of the century. ssociated with extreme winds, rainfall and storm surges, high-resolution regional models (for example, refs 12 and 13) may tropical cyclones present major hazards for coastal areas. be used to downscale the GCM simulations, these models are still AMoreover, tropical cyclones respond to climate change1–3. limited in horizontal resolution and are too expensive to implement Previous studies predicted an increase in the global mean of for risk assessment. -
The Samar Sea Fisheries Management Plan
The Samar Sea fisheries management plan 2016 Strategies for trawl fisheries bycatch management project ii The Samar Sea fisheries management plan REBYC II-CTI Project pilot site for Samar Sea Prepared by the Technical Working Group (TWG) trategies for trawl fisheries bycatch management (REBYC-II CTI; GCP/RAS/269/GFF) 2016 i The Samar Sea fisheries management plan Table of contents 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Vision ....................................................................................................................................... 2 1.2. Goals and objectives of the plan ............................................................................................. 2 1.3. Scope of the plan .................................................................................................................... 2 2. Rationale for management .............................................................................................. 3 2.1. Historical account on status of fish stock/fisheries ................................................................ 3 2.1.1. Stock assessment ............................................................................................................ 3 2.1.2. Catch of juveniles and trashfish ...................................................................................... 4 2.1.3. Trawl catch and bycatch landing survey ........................................................................ -
Global Storm Tide Modeling with ADCIRC V55: Unstructured Mesh Design and Performance William J
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-123 Preprint. Discussion started: 28 July 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. Global Storm Tide Modeling with ADCIRC v55: Unstructured Mesh Design and Performance William J. Pringle1, Damrongsak Wirasaet1, Keith J. Roberts2, and Joannes J. Westerink1 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, IN, USA 2School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Stony Brook University, NY, USA. Correspondence: William J. Pringle ([email protected]) Abstract. This paper details and tests numerical improvements to ADCIRC, a widely used finite element method shallow water equation solver, to more accurately and efficiently model global storm tides with seamless local mesh refinement in storm landfall locations. The sensitivity to global unstructured mesh design was investigated using automatically generated triangular meshes with a global minimum element size (MinEle) that ranged from 1.5 km to 6 km. We demonstrate that 5 refining resolution based on topographic seabed gradients and employing a MinEle less than 3 km is important for the global accuracy of the simulated astronomical tide. Our recommended global mesh design (MinEle = 1.5 km) based on these results was locally refined down to two separate MinEle (500 m and 150 m) at the coastal landfall locations of two intense storms (Hurricane Katrina and Super Typhon Haiyan) to demonstrate the model’s capability for coastal storm tide simulations and to test the sensitivity to local mesh refinement. Simulated maximum storm tide elevations closely follow the lower envelope of 10 observed high water marks (HWMs) measured near the coast. -
Dietrich, Ncsu Dawson, Ut-Austin Dhs Coastal Resilience Center Research Project Year 3 Performance Report and Final Project Report
DIETRICH, NCSU DAWSON, UT-AUSTIN DHS COASTAL RESILIENCE CENTER RESEARCH PROJECT YEAR 3 PERFORMANCE REPORT AND FINAL PROJECT REPORT Project Title: Improving the Efficiency of Wave and Surge Models via Adaptive Mesh Resolution Principal Investigator Name/Institution: Joel Casey Dietrich, Assistant Professor, North Carolina State University Co-Principal Investigators and Other Partners/Institutions: Clint Dawson, Professor, University of Texas at Austin Project Start and End Dates: 1/1/2016 – 6/30-2018 Short Project Description: Coastal communities rely on predictions of waves and flooding caused by storms. Computational models are essential for making these predictions, but they can be costly. A typical prediction can require hundreds or even thousands of computational cores in a supercomputer, and several hours of wall-clock time. In this project, we will improve the performance of a widely-used, predictive model. Its representation of the coastal environment will adapt during the storm, to better utilize the computing resources and ultimately provide a faster prediction. This speed-up will benefit coastal communities, including emergency managers, who will have more time to make decisions during the storm event. It will also benefit long-range planners, such as flood mappers, who will be able to consider larger, more-accurate models in the same amount of time. Summary Abstract: Storm-induced waves and flooding can be predicted using computational models such as the ADCIRC+SWAN modeling system, which has been used by DHS and its constituent agencies for mapping of floodplain flood risk and forecasting of storm surge and inundation. This modeling system has been shown to be efficient in parallel computing environments.