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Massdot-FHWA Pilot Project Report: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Options for the Central Artery

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Massdot-FHWA Pilot Project Report: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Options for the Central Artery MassDOT-FHWA Pilot Project Report: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessments And Adaptation Options for the Central Artery June 2015 Project Team: Kirk Bosma, P.E., Woods Hole Group, Inc. Ellen Douglas, P.E., Ph.D., UMass Boston Paul Kirshen, Ph.D., University of New Hampshire Katherin McArthur, MassDOT Steven Miller, MassDOT Chris Watson, M.Sc., UMass Boston Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank many people for their assistance in this project. They include, but are not limited to, Lt. Dave Albanese, Jeff Amero, John Anthony, Kathleen Baskin, Natalie Beauvais, David Belanger, Carolyn Bennett, John Bolduc, Dennis Carlberg, Bruce Carlisle, Joe Choiniere, Michael Chong, Lisa Dickson, Nate Dill, David Dinocco, Jeff Dusenbery, Kerry Emanuel, Rob Evans, Joe Famely, M. Leslie Fields, John Gendall, William A. Gode-von Aesch, Marybeth Groff, Robert Hamilton, Robyn Hannigan, Elizabeth Hanson, Arden Herrin, Eric Holmes, Nick Hugon, Mike Hutcheon, Bob Hutchen, Christian Jacqz, Charlie Jewell, Ron Killian, Leland Kirshen, Julia Knisel, Brian Knowles, Stephanie Kruel, Wes LaParl, Elise Leduc, Donna Lee, Vivien Li, Kevin Lopes, Rebecca Lupes, Kristen Mathieu, Rick McCullough, Lisa Grogan-McCulloch, Connor McKay, John McVann, Ellen Mecray, Stephen Morash, Dan Mullaly, Cynthia Nurmi, Paul Nutting, Daniel Nvule, Robbin Peach, William Pisano, Owen O’Riordan, Geoffrey Rainoff, Vandana Rao, Lawanda Riggs, Leo Scanlon, Stephen Estes- Smargiassi, Carl Spector, John Sullivan, Nadine Sweeney, Rob Thieler, Kevin Walsh, Peter Walworth, Sarah White, Norman Willard, John Winkelman, Steve Woelfel, Julie Wormser, Florence Wortzel, Arben Zhuri, Rich Zingarelli. Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................. i Introduction ............................................................................................. 1 1.1 The Big Dig ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Motivation for this Project ............................................................................................ 1 1.3 Project Objectives and Approach ................................................................................. 2 1.4 Overall Process ............................................................................................................... 4 1.5 A Comparison of this Study with Others ..................................................................... 6 Geographical Scope and Data Gathering ............................................. 9 2.1 Preliminary Data Acquisition ....................................................................................... 9 2.2 Tunnel Tour .................................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Initial Review of Assets ................................................................................................ 10 2.4 Mini-Pilot Asset Inventory .......................................................................................... 11 2.5 Preliminary Institutional Knowledge (IK) Meeting – July 26, 2013 ....................... 12 2.6 Maximo .......................................................................................................................... 13 2.7 MMIS............................................................................................................................. 14 2.8 First Institutional Knowledge (IK) Meeting – September 16, 2013 ......................... 14 2.9 Second Institutional Knowledge Meeting – October 22, 2013 ................................. 14 2.10 Geographical Scope of the Potentially Critical Areas of the CA/T ......................... 16 2.11 Technical Advisory Committee Meetings .................................................................. 16 2.12 MBTA Tunnel Tours ................................................................................................... 17 2.13 Stakeholder Engagement ............................................................................................. 19 2.14 Other Informational and Coordination Meetings ..................................................... 20 Asset Inventory and Elevation Surveys .............................................. 21 3.1 Detailed Asset Inventory (Field Visits) ....................................................................... 21 3.2 Elevation Surveys ......................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Assets and Facilities ..................................................................................................... 22 3.4 CA/T Database.............................................................................................................. 22 3.5 Structures and Structural Systems ............................................................................. 23 3.6 Geodatabase Development .......................................................................................... 26 Hydrodynamic Analysis ........................................................................ 28 4.1 Model Selection ............................................................................................................. 29 i MassDOT FHWA Pilot Project Report 4.2 Description of ADCIRC ............................................................................................... 33 4.3 Description of SWAN ................................................................................................... 34 4.4 Coupling Waves and Currents .................................................................................... 35 4.5 Model Development...................................................................................................... 36 4.6 Model Calibration and Validation .............................................................................. 49 4.7 Sea Level Rise and Storm Climatology ...................................................................... 57 4.8 Developing the Composite Probability Distribution of Storm-Related Flooding .. 75 4.9 BH-FRM Results .......................................................................................................... 77 Vulnerability Assessment ..................................................................... 95 5.1 Development of the Vulnerability Assessment Process ............................................ 95 5.2 Results of Vulnerability Assessment of Individual Structures ................................ 99 Adaptation ............................................................................................ 104 6.1 Local Adaptation Plan ............................................................................................... 104 6.2 Regional Adaptations ................................................................................................. 105 Conclusions and Lessons Learned ..................................................... 112 7.1 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 112 7.2 Additional Notable Project Findings ........................................................................ 113 7.3 Lessons Learned ......................................................................................................... 113 7.4 Continuing Work ....................................................................................................... 116 References ............................................................................................ 117 ii MassDOT FHWA Pilot Project Report List of Figures Figure ES-1. Schematic of the Central Artery/Tunnel (CA/T) system. ....................................... i Figure 1-1. Schematic of the Central Artery/Tunnel (CA/T) system. ......................................... 3 Figure 1-2. Potential flooding in Boston due to an extreme storm surge (5 ft) on top of spring tide. Source: www.tbha.org. .................................................................................... 4 Figure 1-3. FHWA framework for assessing the vulnerability of transportation systems to climate change and extreme weather (source: Fig 1 from FHWA, 2012, pg 2). ... 5 Figure 2-1. On left, the assumed number of assets to be evaluated in this pilot project (~40) compared to, on right, a representation of the number of assets that actually existed within the system (on the order of thousands). .......................................... 11 Figure 2-2. Screen shot of photo gallery archiving system developed for this project. ........... 12 Figure 2-3. Example map provided by MassDOT District 6 staff at preliminary IK meetings. .................................................................................................................................. 13 Figure 2-4. Map created for first IK meeting. ........................................................................... 15 Figure 2-5. Magnified sections of maps used in IK meetings, showing annotations. ............. 16 Figure 4-1. Bathtub model results for Boston Harbor area showing a maximum water surface elevation of 12 feet NAVD88. ................................................................................. 29 Figure 4-2. Dynamic numerical model results for Boston Harbor area showing a maximum water surface elevation of 12 feet NAVD88. .......................................................... 29 Figure 4-3. Comparison typical
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