OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS FOR THE TORIES — A QUESTION OF TIMING AND ADVANTAGE Stanley H. Hartt When the former Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged last fall, the leadership of the new Conservative Party of Canada seemed a prize hardly worth winning, such were the assumptions of a Liberal landslide under the leadership of Paul Martin. Then came the auditor general’s explosive report on the sponsorship scandal in February. Liberal polling numbers cratered into minority territory, with the Conservatives the main beneficiaries in English-speaking Canada, and a resurgent Bloc in Quebec. Suddenly, with the prospect of a Liberal or even a Conservative minority government, the Conservative leadership became important. Since winning the job on March 20, Opposition Leader Stephen Harper has moved to position the party closer to the centre, while shrugging off Liberal attempts to portray him as an extremist. Stanley Hartt, a leading Conservative intellectual and longtime Tory activist, considers the political ground gained by the Right since the merger, and the ground the Conservatives still have to make up if they are to catch up to the governing Liberals. Quand l’Alliance canadienne et le Parti progressiste-conservateur ont fusionné l’automne dernier, le poste de chef du nouveau Parti conservateur du Canada ne semblait guère enviable tant on supposait que les libéraux remporteraient sous Paul Martin une victoire écrasante. Puis, en février, la vérificatrice générale a déposé son fameux rapport sur le scandale des commandites. Les libéraux ont alors amorcé dans les sondages une chute qui a essentiellement profité aux conservateurs, sauf au Québec, où le Bloc québécois s’en est trouvé dynamisé. Devant cette soudaine possibilité d’un gouvernement minoritaire libéral, voire conservateur, le poste en question a pris une importance inattendue. Depuis qu’il l’a obtenu le 20 mars dernier, le chef de l’opposition Stephen Harper a judicieusement rapproché son parti du centre de l’échiquier politique, sans s’attarder aux tentatives libérales de le dépeindre comme un extrémiste. Stanley Hartt, penseur et militant conservateur de longue date, mesure les gains accomplis par les conservateurs depuis la fusion de la droite et le terrain qu’il leur reste à conquérir pour déloger les libéraux. t may have been obvious that the division of conserva- former two parties, and that many Red Tories will migrate to tives into Alliance and Progressive Conservative fac- the Liberals. Yet the chances of the combined entity winning I tions was a recipe for permanent Liberal governments, the next federal election are exponentially greater than the but it still took great courage on the parts of Stephen Harper sum of the parts, because voters tend to vote for a contender and Peter MacKay to bring about the Conservative Party of and shun an also-ran. Canada. This is particularly true of MacKay, who won his The timing of the merger has forced the party to rush its leadership by promising David Orchard, unnecessarily, as it preparations for a late spring or early summer election. As turns out, that he would do no such thing. the leader was being chosen in March, no one thought that The merger was the result of a strong push from the the new party would be within touching distance of throw- faithful in both predecessor parties to stop dividing right-of- ing out the long-in-the-tooth Liberal regime in an election centre electoral support. Some analysts maintain that a in June. The contest for leader of the Conservatives might unfied right does not necessarily claim all the votes of the well have been different had the sponsorship scandal cap- POLICY OPTIONS 19 JUNE-JULY 2004 Stanley H. Hartt tured the popular imagination a few gence of the sponsorship scandal is toral terms, of the sponsorship affair: months earlier than it did. felicitous for the Tories. Paul Martin’s The idea that if you spend hundreds of invincibility is unravelling before the millions of dollars “on” a program, hile the leadership candidates nation’s eyes as the revelations in the your heart’s in the right place, is a W did not include stars like Mike auditor general’s report on the machi- Liberal concept. Spending money “on” Harris, Ralph Klein and Bernard Lord, nations in the Department of Public national unity does not ensure that the campaign did generate renewed Works have sapped the strength of the the money gets to the end objective, interest in the Conservatives. To n y ruling Liberals and boosted the opposi- any more than spending money on Clement gave a strong convention tion parties. other programs, like the billion dollars speech, although he received less sup- wasted “on” the gun control registry, port than his ideas warranted. Belinda aving been handed this unex- actually assures Canadians that a sin- Stronach was a welcome and attractive H pected electoral opportunity, the gle firearm has been removed from the new face, strong on political platform question is whether Harper’s hands of criminals. From a and poised and effective in public C o n s e rvatives have exploited voter C o n s e rvative strategic peerspective, appearances. dissatisfaction in a timely manner public revulsion at the huge commis- The main thing the leadership while the issue was still top of mind sions paid to Liberal-friendly ad agen- contest did was to provide a solid and established themselves as a viable cies should not be allowed to dissipate rebuttal to the allegation that the alternative on policy issues. The deci- in the wake of the confusion generated merger was an Alliance takeover. The sion to hold the party’s policy plat- by the Public Accounts Committee race proved that the party represents a form document for release two weeks hearings, which have failed to identify re-branded conservatism with the individuals who sanctioned plenty of appeal to Canadians. Stephen Harper has the capacity to the abuse of public money for The brand equity of the surprise in office and a talent for partisan purposes. Conservative name is impor- The practice of setting up tant as voters consider their being underestimated. In successive the deniable delivery system for choices, particularly if they are stages, he has won the leadership of patronage which could not be considering change. the former Alliance party, traced to ministers is particular- Stephen Harper has the orchestrated its unification with the ly offensive in Quebec where it capacity to surprise in office plays to the unfair stereotypical and a talent for being underesti- PCs, handily won the leadership of image of politics founded on mated. In successive stages, he the new party on the first ballot, graft, and is seen as an admis- has won the leadership of the and held his caucus together going sion that the feds were buying former Alliance party, orch e s - into an election. For someone hearts and minds instead of trated its unification with the winning them. But this is clear- PCs, handily won the leader- supposedly averse to, and not adept ly benefitting the Bloc, not the ship of the new party on the at, the retail side of politics, he C o n s e rvatives, at least going first ballot, and held his caucus appears to be holding his own. into the campaign. Obviously, together going into an election. ev e r y one of Quebec’s 75 rid- For someone supposedly averse to, and into the election was originally made ings won by the Bloc, over and above not adept at, the retail side of politics, to ensure maximum impact, impede their 33 seats at dissolution, is one he appears to be holding his own. On Liberal poaching and cover up the fact more seat Liberals need to win in the policy side, he is thoroughly that the book addresses only about 80 Ontario and Atlantic Canada in order engrossed in issues, understands and p e rcent of the policy concerns of to obtain a new majority. This is the loves them, and is adept at making C o n s e rvatives, emphasizing those reverse of the assumption when Martin leader-like choices among unattractive areas where there was broad agreement took office in December, that Liberal alternatives. The term “policy wonk” is between predecessor platforms. When gains in Quebec would offset anticipat- used to describe an ability to enjoy the Liberals test-marketed some over- ed losses to a united right in Ontario, having to analyze the big files. Some the-top attack ads (on immigration, and does not look to be a sound basis may say that Harper lacks charisma, yet support for the US on Iraq and for Grit strategic calculus. this could actually help as he combats medicare), the Tories released a précis the Liberal attempts to demonize him for candidates, which received general- hich brings us to election tim- as an extremist wing-nut. ly good reviews from the media. W ing. Martin’s essential argu- But, as the saying goes, “govern- Here’s what Harper and his team ment is that he is not Jean Chrétien ments aren’t defeated; they defeat need to establish in the public’s mind and that, therefore, he must solicit a themselves.” The timing of the emer- if they are to make the most, in elec- mandate of his own. Voters have not 20 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2004 Opportunity knocks for the Tories — a question of timing and advantage CP Photo Stephen Harper chats up the media: “He has the capacity to surprise and a talent for being underestimated.” His capacity for growth, and his talent for campaigning, are now being tested as never before in the election underwa y .