OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS FOR THE — A QUESTION OF TIMING AND ADVANTAGE

Stanley H. Hartt

When the former Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged last fall, the leadership of the new Conservative Party of seemed a prize hardly worth winning, such were the assumptions of a Liberal landslide under the leadership of . Then came the auditor general’s explosive report on the sponsorship scandal in February. Liberal polling numbers cratered into minority territory, with the Conservatives the main beneficiaries in English-speaking Canada, and a resurgent Bloc in . Suddenly, with the prospect of a Liberal or even a Conservative minority government, the Conservative leadership became important. Since winning the job on March 20, Opposition Leader has moved to position the party closer to the centre, while shrugging off Liberal attempts to portray him as an extremist. Stanley Hartt, a leading Conservative intellectual and longtime activist, considers the political ground gained by the Right since the merger, and the ground the Conservatives still have to make up if they are to catch up to the governing Liberals.

Quand l’Alliance canadienne et le Parti progressiste-conservateur ont fusionné l’automne dernier, le poste de chef du nouveau Parti conservateur du Canada ne semblait guère enviable tant on supposait que les libéraux remporteraient sous Paul Martin une victoire écrasante. Puis, en février, la vérificatrice générale a déposé son fameux rapport sur le scandale des commandites. Les libéraux ont alors amorcé dans les sondages une chute qui a essentiellement profité aux conservateurs, sauf au Québec, où le Bloc québécois s’en est trouvé dynamisé. Devant cette soudaine possibilité d’un gouvernement minoritaire libéral, voire conservateur, le poste en question a pris une importance inattendue. Depuis qu’il l’a obtenu le 20 mars dernier, le chef de l’opposition Stephen Harper a judicieusement rapproché son parti du centre de l’échiquier politique, sans s’attarder aux tentatives libérales de le dépeindre comme un extrémiste. Stanley Hartt, penseur et militant conservateur de longue date, mesure les gains accomplis par les conservateurs depuis la fusion de la droite et le terrain qu’il leur reste à conquérir pour déloger les libéraux.

t may have been obvious that the division of conserva- former two parties, and that many Red Tories will migrate to tives into Alliance and Progressive Conservative fac- the Liberals. Yet the chances of the combined entity winning I tions was a recipe for permanent Liberal governments, the next federal election are exponentially greater than the but it still took great courage on the parts of Stephen Harper sum of the parts, because voters tend to vote for a contender and Peter MacKay to bring about the Conservative Party of and shun an also-ran. Canada. This is particularly true of MacKay, who won his The timing of the merger has forced the party to rush its leadership by promising , unnecessarily, as it preparations for a late spring or early summer election. As turns out, that he would do no such thing. the leader was being chosen in March, no one thought that The merger was the result of a strong push from the the new party would be within touching distance of throw- faithful in both predecessor parties to stop dividing right-of- ing out the long-in-the-tooth Liberal regime in an election centre electoral support. Some analysts maintain that a in June. The contest for leader of the Conservatives might unfied right does not necessarily claim all the votes of the well have been different had the sponsorship scandal cap-

POLICY OPTIONS 19 JUNE-JULY 2004 Stanley H. Hartt

tured the popular imagination a few gence of the sponsorship scandal is toral terms, of the sponsorship affair: months earlier than it did. felicitous for the Tories. Paul Martin’s The idea that if you spend hundreds of invincibility is unravelling before the millions of dollars “on” a program, hile the leadership candidates nation’s eyes as the revelations in the your heart’s in the right place, is a W did not include stars like Mike auditor general’s report on the machi- Liberal concept. Spending money “on” Harris, and , nations in the Department of Public national unity does not ensure that the campaign did generate renewed Works have sapped the strength of the the money gets to the end objective, interest in the Conservatives. To n y ruling Liberals and boosted the opposi- any more than spending money on Clement gave a strong convention tion parties. other programs, like the billion dollars speech, although he received less sup- wasted “on” the gun control registry, port than his ideas warranted. Belinda aving been handed this unex- actually assures that a sin- Stronach was a welcome and attractive H pected electoral opportunity, the gle firearm has been removed from the new face, strong on political platform question is whether Harper’s hands of criminals. From a and poised and effective in public C o n s e rvatives have exploited voter C o n s e rvative strategic peerspective, appearances. dissatisfaction in a timely manner public revulsion at the huge commis- The main thing the leadership while the issue was still top of mind sions paid to Liberal-friendly ad agen- contest did was to provide a solid and established themselves as a viable cies should not be allowed to dissipate rebuttal to the allegation that the alternative on policy issues. The deci- in the wake of the confusion generated merger was an Alliance takeover. The sion to hold the party’s policy plat- by the Public Accounts Committee race proved that the party represents a form document for release two weeks hearings, which have failed to identify re-branded with the individuals who sanctioned plenty of appeal to Canadians. Stephen Harper has the capacity to the abuse of public money for The brand equity of the surprise in office and a talent for partisan purposes. Conservative name is impor- The practice of setting up tant as voters consider their being underestimated. In successive the deniable delivery system for choices, particularly if they are stages, he has won the leadership of patronage which could not be considering change. the former Alliance party, traced to ministers is particular- Stephen Harper has the orchestrated its unification with the ly offensive in Quebec where it capacity to surprise in office plays to the unfair stereotypical and a talent for being underesti- PCs, handily won the leadership of image of politics founded on mated. In successive stages, he the new party on the first ballot, graft, and is seen as an admis- has won the leadership of the and held his caucus together going sion that the feds were buying former Alliance party, orch e s - into an election. For someone hearts and minds instead of trated its unification with the winning them. But this is clear- PCs, handily won the leader- supposedly averse to, and not adept ly benefitting the Bloc, not the ship of the new party on the at, the retail side of politics, he C o n s e rvatives, at least going first ballot, and held his caucus appears to be holding his own. into the campaign. Obviously, together going into an election. ev e r y one of Quebec’s 75 rid- For someone supposedly averse to, and into the election was originally made ings won by the Bloc, over and above not adept at, the retail side of politics, to ensure maximum impact, impede their 33 seats at dissolution, is one he appears to be holding his own. On Liberal poaching and cover up the fact more seat Liberals need to win in the policy side, he is thoroughly that the book addresses only about 80 and in order engrossed in issues, understands and p e rcent of the policy concerns of to obtain a new majority. This is the loves them, and is adept at making C o n s e rvatives, emphasizing those reverse of the assumption when Martin leader-like choices among unattractive areas where there was broad agreement took office in December, that Liberal alternatives. The term “policy wonk” is between predecessor platforms. When gains in Quebec would offset anticipat- used to describe an ability to enjoy the Liberals test-marketed some over- ed losses to a united right in Ontario, having to analyze the big files. Some the-top attack ads (on immigration, and does not look to be a sound basis may say that Harper lacks charisma, yet support for the US on Iraq and for Grit strategic calculus. this could actually help as he combats medicare), the Tories released a précis the Liberal attempts to demonize him for candidates, which received general- hich brings us to election tim- as an extremist wing-nut. ly good reviews from the media. W ing. Martin’s essential argu- But, as the saying goes, “govern- Here’s what Harper and his team ment is that he is not Jean Chrétien ments aren’t defeated; they defeat need to establish in the public’s mind and that, therefore, he must solicit a themselves.” The timing of the emer- if they are to make the most, in elec- mandate of his own. Voters have not

20 OPTIONS POLITIQUES JUIN-JUILLET 2004 Opportunity knocks for the Tories — a question of timing and advantage

CP Photo Stephen Harper chats up the media: “He has the capacity to surprise and a talent for being underestimated.” His capacity for growth, and his talent for campaigning, are now being tested as never before in the election underwa y . bought past attempts to distance a suc- her predecessor as they could find. So record, not, as hoped, a successful case cessor regime of the same political they chose a Wes t e r n e r , a woman, not made that he represented change. stripe from its own record. quite bilingual enough to be seen as a spent almost nine years in exile in a Québécoise. Again, it didn’t work. On aul Martin has the same dilemma. law firm so that, when Pierre the very first day of the 1993 campaign, P His handlers tried to spin the line Trudeau finally retired, Canadians minutes after obtaining the writ at that only one cabinet minister had would see Turner as a fresh face repre- , she suggested there would retained his post in the new Martin senting change. It didn’t work. Brian be little employment growth to the year government, when in fact there are M u l r o n e y ’s knockout punch in the 2000. It was all downhill from there. fourteen holdovers from Jean 1984 televised debate certainly helped, thought, unwisely, that Chrétien’s tired regimes. To distance but Turner was punished as much by he could shift his party to the centre himself from scandal, Martin has the West for the National Energy after two mandates of the Common brought the sponsorship affair into the Program (NEP) and the Foreign Sense Revolution had worn out Mike open with parliamentary committee Investment Review Agancy (FIRA), and Harris’ welcome with Ontario voters. hearings, but this only serves to keep by Quebec for the repatriation of the All he succeeded in doing was to the pot boiling. He has fired heads of Constitution without its consent, as if underline that even he, the right-hand Crown corporations who are now he had personally thought these up. alter-ego and counselor of the premier, fighting to clear their names and this suffered from and his powerful finance minister, dis- keeps the news of the events leading to Mu l r o n e y ’ s low standing in the polls as agreed with some of the most funda- their dismissals in the forefront of the much as her own inept campaigning in mental policies of his mentor, like voters’ minds. If Martin succeeds in the 1993 election. The fix was in to privatization of electrical utilities and persuading Canadians that there is no back her as leader because the prospect tough-love bargaining with public sec- Liberal continuum beginning in 1993, of years in opposition motivated the tor unions. That turned out to be a rea- he will be the first to have pulled off Tories to seek someone as different from son to vote against Eves and the Harris such sleight of hand.

POLICY OPTIONS 21 JUNE-JULY 2004 Stanley H. Hartt

The bottom line is that, if Martin’s an asthma patient from universal, pub- ing strength on the 1979 budget, story is that his is a new government, licly funded health care. This speech was resulting in an election in which he and he sticks to it, an election deferred delivered just days after the revelation was defeated by , or to the fall of 2004, or perhaps until that Martin visits his family physcian at when he called and lost a leadership 2005, would not work. After a while, the offices of Medisys Health Group, one convention in 1983, after winning the government becomes yours, if of the nation’s largest private providers 66.9 percent approval in a leadership only because you have done nothing of group and executive health care. Any r e v i e w. Clark certainly didn’t feel he to cure the abuses you attribute to advantage the Liberals might have c o u l d n ’t work with former Alliance your predecessor. A June election is claimed as the champions of public partisans when he organized a co- forced upon Martin in these circum- health care appeared to have been large- operative parliamentary effort with stances, even in the face of polling ly neutralized by the appearance of the seven members of the Democratic numbers hammered by scandal. qu e u e - j u m p i n g . Representative Caucus, led by Chuck Enter Stephen Harper with new Strahl, who had fled the leadership of momentum and an impressive list of et, one has to wonder at the tim- in 2001. local candidates, particularly in Y ing of ’s most recent Clark, as well as John Herron, Scott Ontario. Lifelong party activists and attempt to marginalize the new party Brison, Keith Martin and Andre Bachand advisors of quality, who always har- and its leader just as they seem to be were all guilty of premature extrication boured a dream of one day running for gaining momentum. While it is not when they didn’t give the party a chance Parliament, have picked this election the first time he has attributed to revitalize the Conservative move- ment. They bought into the Why would a former prime minister pick this time to theory of an Alliance undermine his former colleagues by decrying a policy ta k e o v e r , when there is per- suasive evidence that it was platform he had not read, and which the moderates in the anything but. party were succeeding in tailoring for the more centrist stance A group of other for- required for victory? The best that can be said is that Clark mer “Red Tories” led by has always had a bent for quixotic political strategies, , with assists from Heward beginning when he miscalculated his voting strength on the G r a f t e y, Flora MacDonald 1979 budget, resulting in an election in which he was and former premier Brian defeated by Pierre Trudeau. Peckford of Newfoundland and Labrador, are asking to make their move. Well-known for- unwholesome content to the new the Federal Court to quash the merg- mer provincial cabinet ministers and p a r t y ’s electoral offering (he did so er on various technical legal grounds. MPPs are presenting themselves. immediately upon the massive ratifi- None of this impressive list of once It remains to be seen whether the cation of the combination by the and former Tories seems to grasp that scare tactics of the Liberals, painting members of both predecessor parties), the merger represents a victory for the Harper as a redneck westerner, will sur- this latest outburst came on the heels moderate views they espouse and that vive people actually meeting this of a very successful show of unity in they would do much better to come native of Leaside (a quiet, middle-class New Brunswick, where former prime aboard and help the party in the next suburb of Toronto) whose family were minister Mulroney joined Premier election instead of mourning the all accountants. Harper’s personality is Lord and Harper on the same plat- “death of the family. ” calm and re-assuring, not at all threat- form to advance the merits, the unity Harper and MacKay deserve a ening. His platform concentrates on and the electability of the new entity. great deal of credit in bringing the two the issues that unite all segments of Why would a former prime min- parties together and offering a united the predecessor parties and is heavily ister pick this time to undermine his Conservative alternative to the gov- influenced by the contributions of former colleagues by decrying a poli- erning Liberals. The least that can said, Peter MacKay. cy platform he had not read, and heading into the election, is that In Toronto in the second week of which the moderates in the party Canadian politics is competitive again. Ma y , he moved to the centre on health were succeeding in tailoring for the In that sense, Canadian democracy is care, illustrating his position with a fam- more centrist stance required for vic- the better for it. ily history. While his father once under- t o ry? The best that can be said is that went an operation that his grandfather Clark has always had a bent for Stanley H. Hartt was chief of staff to had to pay for before health care, quixotic political strategies, begin- Prime Minister Mulroney and is a Stephen Harper had himself benefited as ning when he miscalculated his vot- Conservative activist.

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