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CLIMATE RESILIENT BASINS: CHINCHINA (COLOMBIA) and MANTARO (PERU) REPORT April-June, 2018

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CLIMATE RESILIENT BASINS: CHINCHINA (COLOMBIA) and MANTARO (PERU) REPORT April-June, 2018 CLIMATE RESILIENT BASINS: CHINCHINA (COLOMBIA) AND MANTARO (PERU) REPORT April-June, 2018 June 30, 2018 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. 1 It was prepared by CIIFEN. CLIMATE RESILIENT BASINS: CHINCHINA (COLOMBIA) AND MANTARO (PERU) REPORT April-June, 2018 Submitted to: USAID/Washington Prepared by: International Center for Research on El Niño Phenomenon (CIIFEN) 2 DISCLAIMER: This document is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of CIIFEN and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the U.S. Government. 3 TABLE OF CONTENT 1. Evaluation of Activity Implementation ....................................................................................... 5 1.1 Activities And Results .......................................................................................................... 5 Outcome 1 ................................................................................................................................... 5 Outcome 2 ................................................................................................................................... 8 Outcome 3 ................................................................................................................................... 9 Outcome 4 ................................................................................................................................. 12 Outcome 5 ................................................................................................................................. 14 2. Operational/Administrative Matters ........................................................................................ 16 2.1 Audit: ................................................................................................................................. 16 2.2 Changes In Project Staff: ................................................................................................... 16 2.3 Bank Accounts In Colombia And Peru ............................................................................... 16 3. Conclusions Of The Execution Of Period ................................................................................... 17 4. Coordination With Other Institutions Or Projects In The Basin ................................................ 18 5. Principal Activities Planned For The Next Quarter .................................................................... 18 4 1. EVALUATION OF ACTIVITY IMPLEMENTATION 1.1 Activities and Results OUTCOME 1 1.1 Description of climatology, climate trends and projections for the region of the basins. 1.2 Tendencies of climatic indexes. 1.3 Weather projections In this period the project team and the Climate Specialists elaborated two publications based on the Climate Analysis prepared for both basins: "Understanding the climate of the Chinchina river basin" and "Understanding the climate of the Mantaro river basin." These documents present the climate analysis for each basin, the climatology of the basin, the tendencies for the climatic indices and the climate projections (rain and temperature) for each basin. Likewise, in order to reach the communities, two stories were written with contents and information related to the climate of the basins. In Peru the comic strip called: "Mantaro Valley, the food pantry", and in Colombia: "A tree in Chinchina will give us more than its shadow". 1.5. Analysis of climate variability, hydrometeorological and extreme hydroclimate events and their impacts on basin territories. 5 MANTARO 1.5.1. Master’s degree theses on the impacts of climate variability and climate change in basin territories. The thesis advisor M.Sc. Victoria Calle, is permanently monitoring the activities carried out by the two Master´s thesis, Gerardo Jacome and Weidi Flores. According to the 10th report sent by the consultant, the advances in the Master´s thesis work are the following: Gerardo Jacome: Thesis: "INDEXES OF CLIMATE EXTREMES OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURE IN THE BASIN OF MANTARO - PERU USING THE MODEL WRF (1981-2065)" In this quarter, Mr. Jacome was assigned the date for his degree exam. At the moment the thesis is being reviewed by the members of the qualifying committee of the university La Molina. They will provide their contributions for improving the document. Weidi Flores: Thesis: ""ATMOSPHERIC ELECTRIC DISCHARGES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS, BETWEEN 2008 AND 2017 ON THE MANTARO BASIN” In this quarter, the Master´s thesis student submitted the final proposal and approved his English knowledge test that is a requirement to take his degree exam. In June, Mr. Flores contacted the main authorities and made initial coordination with the rural community of Marcapomacocha to organize and implement the early warning system. CHINCHINA Felipe Rincón: In this period, Mr. Rincón delivered the final Master’s thesis work modified according to the recommendations of the CIIFEN evaluation committee. The thesis entitled "AGROCLIMATE INDEXES IN CHINCHINA RIVER BASIN UNDER THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY", aimed to establish the effect of the variability in the dynamics of the agroclimate variables for the basin and the impacts in the main crops of the region. The results confirmed the negative impact of the Niño y Niña phenomena on crops such as banana and coffee; however, its effects can vary greatly depending on the type of phenomenon and the behavior of the hydroclimate variables in the period immediately before the phenomenon (El Niño o La Niña). The result highlights the need to have a greater amount of data to have more accurate results, however the information obtained will be an important input for decision making. In the next months the study will be socialized in different spaces and meetings. Jenny Marín: 6 The results of the thesis entitled "DYNAMICS OF EXTREME HYDROCLIMATE EVENTS IN THE CHINCHINA RIVER BASIN DUE TO CLIMATIC VARIABILITY" confirm the high vulnerability of certain areas of the basin to threats such as landslide. Another result was the high variation in the behavior of the climatic variables between the micro-basins of the middle and upper watershed. The final thesis document will be delivered and socialized with the institutional stakeholders of the basin so that they incorporate the results of this study into the planning instruments, principally in the risk management plans of the five municipalities of the basin and Caldas Department. 1.5.2. Statistical Estimation of the accident rate associated with climate variability and climate change CHINCHINA The process of collecting information associated with the accident rate in Chinchiná river basin continues this quarter. The following are the progress achieved these months: 1. Content of the document: Introduction Context - Background: country and regional data regarding the social and economic impacts of climate variability phenomena Main social impacts Main economic impacts Areas with high socio-economic impacts and relationship with vulnerability analysis. Conclusion 2. Agreement with the Catholic University A student of Environmental Engineering of the Catholic University, supported the project in the first phases of the process 3. Preparation of a list of information sources: Government of Caldas, Risk Management Unit Municipality of Chinchina Municipality of Villamaria Municipality of Palestine Municipality of Manizales Municipality of Neira Fire Brigade Civil Defense Corporaldas National University, headquarters Manizales Additionally, the information contained in Desinventar Platform is being validated. 4. Definition of parameters to be considered in the collection of information, for the database building. 7 5. Information management: feed database During this period some of the information was collected; however no all the required information could be gathered. The information is being processed. 6. Elaboration of the document It will be prepared in the last quarter of the year. OUTCOME 2 2.2. Vulnerability analysis considering socioeconomic and environmental indicators in the territories of the basin. The document "Methodological Guide for the Analysis of Vulnerability to Extreme Climate Events of the Chinchina river basin" was prepared, socialized and delivered to local stakeholders, during the vulnerability workshops carried out in Manizales. This document compiled the methodology used for the development of the analysis, as a model to be applied in other scenarios. In the same way, a comic strip titled "Knowing the vulnerability of the territory is the first step to build a resilient basin", was elaborated in this period. This material was delivered to the communities during the vulnerability training as a sequence of the climate strip. In Peru, the vulnerability documents (for technicians and communities) have not yet been prepared, since the results of the 2017 census have not been yet published. The vulnerability study must first be updated with data for 2017 before producing the vulnerability publication for the 8 technicians. For the third semester, it is planned to write the vulnerability comic strip for the communities and its publication is expected the last quarter of the year. 2.3 Socialization and validation of the vulnerability study results in basin territories. 2.3.2 Preparation of information for publications and web portal In this quarter,
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