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Canada Research Dundee Precious Metals Inc Canada Research Published by Raymond James Ltd. Dundee Precious Metals Inc. July 18, 2014 DPM-TSX Company Report - Initiation of Coverage Adam Low CFA | 416.777.4943 | [email protected] Wayne Lam CFA, (Associate) | 416.777.7042 | [email protected] Outperform 2 Mining | Precious Metals - Gold C$7.50 target price More Precious than Meets the Eye Current Price ( Jul-15-14 ) C$5.13 Total Return to Target 46% 52-Week Range C$7.00 - C$2.50 Recommendation Suitability High Risk We are initiating coverage of Dundee Precious Metals with an Outperform rating Market Data and a 6-12 month target price of C$7.50. We recommend buying DPM’s shares. Market Capitalization (mln) US$671 Current Net Debt (mln) US$75 Analysis Enterprise Value (mln) US$751 Diversified and vertically integrated – Dundee Precious Metals is a diversified and Shares Outstanding (mln, f.d.) 140.0 vertically integrated mining company with two operating gold mines (its flagship 10 Day Avg Daily Volume (000s) 449 Chelopech mine in Bulgaria, and Kapan in Armenia), a specialized copper smelter Dividend/Yield US$0.00/0.0% (Tsumeb in Namibia), and a construction-ready gold project (Krumovgrad in Bulgaria), as well as stakes in three junior gold exploration/development companies. Key Financial Metrics Tsumeb is now a second source of cash flow – The Tsumeb smelter turned a corner 2013A 2014E 2015E in 1Q14, generating its first sizeable profit (EBITDA of US$10.2 mln) since the P/E company acquired it in March 2010. We expect this turn-around to be sustainable, 28.4x 14.1x 11.2x thus making Tsumeb a second source of cash flow in addition to Chelopech. P/NAV 0.75x NA Abundant organic growth opportunities – The company’s best organic growth EBITDA (mln) opportunities are the Krumovgrad gold project, an investment in a holding furnace US$103 US$117 US$139 at the Tsumeb smelter, and the potential to expand and optimize the Kapan mine. Au Production (000s oz) The development of Krumovgrad would provide more diversification and add a 153.3 148.1 166.7 fourth operating asset. An investment in a holding furnace at the Tsumeb could raise Cu Production (000s MT) capacity and further improve the economies of scale, thus increasing the cash flow 21.0 19.9 19.8 from the smelter. An expansion of Kapan’s throughput to 1.0 mln tonnes/year Au Cash Cost (US$/oz) (nearly double) would enable margin expansion by spreading the fixed costs over a US$329 US$566 US$607 larger volume of production, and could be the impetus to transition the mine from Concentrate Smelted (MT) operating at a loss to generating a profit. 152,457 194,547 234,600 A track record of overcoming challenges, often through innovation – The Gold Price (US$/oz) management team has proven itself adept at resolving complex social, technical, US$1,413 US$1,321 US$1,350 and metallurgical challenges. It has turned-around two loss making operations in Copper price (US$/lb) incredibly different jurisdictions (Chelopech and Tsumeb). At Chelopech the team US$3.33 US$3.14 US$3.25 implemented innovative solutions to improve both the underground mining capacity and increase the metal recoveries in the mill. At Tsumeb the company has overcome Company Description some community opposition and invested in technology to make the smelter a Dundee Precious Metals is a vertically integrated gold unique and industry-leading processing facility for complex copper concentrates. and copper producer. It operates the Chelopech mine in Bulgaria, the Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia, Valuation and the Kapan mine in Armenia. Dundee Precious Metals’ shares trade at a P/NAV of 0.75. This compares to the average for the junior gold producer peer group of 0.85. Our target price of C$7.50 is based on a 70%/30% weighting of a 1.1 multiple applied to our NAV estimate of C$6.88/share and a 10.0 EV/EBITDA multiple applied to our 2014 EBITDA estimate (in-line with risk and liquidity-adjusted historic producer multiples). Refer to our Valuation & Recommendation section for details. EPS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Revenues NAV Mar Jun Sep Dec Year (mln) 2013A US$0.01 US$0.12 US$(0.10) US$0.14 US$0.17 US$345 2014E 0.07A 0.08 0.07 0.11 0.34 383 C$6.88 2015E 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.43 444 NA Source: Raymond James Ltd., Thomson One Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 42 and Analyst Certification on page 42. Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Canada Research | Page 2 of 47 Dundee Precious Metals Inc. Table of Contents Investment Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 3 Key Investment Risks ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Company Overview .............................................................................................................................................. 7 Financial Analysis & Outlook................................................................................................................................ 10 Valuation & Recommendation ............................................................................................................................ 11 Chelopech Mine ................................................................................................................................................... 16 Tsumeb Smelter ................................................................................................................................................... 22 Krumovgrad Project ............................................................................................................................................. 26 Kapan Mine .......................................................................................................................................................... 32 Partially-Owned Exploration Entities ................................................................................................................... 36 Appendix: Management & Board of Directors .................................................................................................... 39 Raymond James Ltd. | 2100 – 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2 Dundee Precious Metals Inc. Canada Research | Page 3 of 47 Investment Overview We are initiating coverage of Dundee Precious Metals with an Outperform rating and a 6-12 month target price of C$7.50. Our target price is based on a 70%/30% weighting of a 1.1 multiple applied to our net asset value (NAV) estimate of C$6.88/share and a 10.0 EV/EBITDA multiple applied to our 2014 EBITDA estimate of US$117 million. Dundee Precious Metals is a diversified and vertically integrated mining company with two operating mines, a specialized copper smelter, and a construction-ready gold project, as well as stakes in three junior gold exploration/development companies (53.1% of Avala Resources, 45.5% of Dunav Resources, and 12% of Sabina Gold & Silver). In 2014 we expect Dundee Precious Metals to sell 148,100 ounces of payable gold and 43.8 million pounds of payable copper (its two primary metals) at a C1 gold cash cost of US$566/ounce and a sustaining gold cash cost of US$1,191/ounce (both net of by-product credits). This is broadly in-line with the 2013 performance. The major change that we envision occurring in 2014 is the emergence of the company’s smelter as a profit centre. We forecast throughput of 194,547 tonnes (an increase of 28% year-over-year) at an operating cost of US$347/tonne (a 20% improvement year-over-year). The company’s most significant asset is the Chelopech underground gold-copper mine in Bulgaria. Chelopech is a producing mine that is exploiting a high-sulphidation epithermal deposit. The deposit has high grades of gold, copper, and silver with reserves of 23.9 million tonnes grading 3.25 grams/tonne gold, 0.99% copper, and 7.3 grams/tonne silver. The mine is operating sustainably at a throughput of 2 million tonnes/year, and accounts for 49% of our mine-site NAV. The Chelopech mine has elevated levels of arsenic, which prompted the company to acquire the Tsumeb smelter to secure access to one of the few facilities in the world with the ability to treat the copper concentrates that the mine produces. We forecast the mine to sell 125,300 ounces of payable gold contained in copper and pyrite concentrates, and 41.4 million pounds of payable copper in concentrate in 2014. Over the remaining mine life of 12 years we forecast average annual production of 130,100 ounces of gold and 35.1 million pounds of copper, at a sustaining cash cost of US$744/ounce of gold (net of by-product credits). Dundee Precious Metals’ Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia is the asset that truly differentiates it versus its peers. First, it provides the company with vertical integration, as it processes the majority of the copper concentrate produced by Chelopech. This is a capability that other companies of this size do not possess. Second, Tsumeb is a very unique smelter given that it has been designed to process complex copper concentrates, with an emphasis on those with elevated levels of arsenic. This is a competitive advantage within the smelting industry, as it means that it is operating in a market niche with relatively little competition. Third, the smelter has recently transitioned from operating at a loss to generating a profit. Going forward, we expect the smelter
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