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A New Middle East? AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL REVIEW VOLUME 45 No. 10 OCTOBER 2020 AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL & JEWISH AFFAIRS COUNCIL A NEW MIDDLE EAST? How the aftermath of the UAE- Bahrain-Israel peace deals could transform the region THE “SNAPBACK” CRISIS TERROR REVISITED CONSPIRACY DOWN ISLAMIST HATE UNDER REVEALED The dispute over renewed UN How the Second Inti- fada, which began 20 The QAnon movement An exposé of the sanctions on Iran will have profound years ago, reshaped makes a splash in ugly rhetoric of international implications ........... PAGE 22 Israel .............PAGE 31 Australia ........PAGE 24 Hizb ut-Tahrir Aus- tralia ............. PAGE 27 NAME OF SECTION WITH COMPLIMENTS AND BEST WISHES FROM GANDEL GROUP CHADSTONE SHOPPING CENTRE 1341 DANDENONG ROAD CHADSTONE VIC 3148 TEL: (03) 8564 1222 FAX: (03) 8564 1333 2 AIR – October 2020 AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL VOLUME 45 No. 10 REVIEW OCTOBER 2020 EDITOR’S NOTE NAME OF SECTION his AIR edition focuses on the potentially transformative effect for the whole Middle ON THE COVER TEast of the decision by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain to sign peace (L-R) Israeli Prime Minister Bin- and normalisation agreements with Israel. yamin Netanyahu, US President Washington Institute scholar David Makovksy looks in detail at what those peace Donald Trump, Bahrain Foreign deals actually say, while Amotz Asa-El explores the likelihood that other regional states Affairs Minister Sheikh Khalid will soon also normalise their relations with Israel. In addition, American expert Dani- Bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa and UAE elle Pletka examines Palestinian options now that their traditional Arab supporters are Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh abandoning their long-standing boycott of Israel, and Khaled Abu Toameh documents Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al how fundamentally Arab media discourse about Israel is changing. Nahyan at the Abraham Accords signing ceremony Also featured this month is Israeli commentator Seth Frantzman arguing that the at the White House, Sept. 15. (Photo: AAP/Jim Lo current international standoff over US efforts to “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran may Scalzo) have very significant global effects. Plus, on the 20th anniversary of the outbreak of the Second Intifada, Israeli journalist Herb Keinon looks at how this bloody terror wave indelibly reshaped Israeli society. And don’t miss: Naomi Levin on the impact in Australia of the dangerous US-based QAnon conspiracy theory; academic Ran Porat’s exposè on the hateful rhetoric of the Australian branch of the Hizb ut-Tahrir international Islamist group; and Michael Rubin on the political implications of Iran’s horrific execution of wrestler Navid Afkari. As always, we invite your feedback on any aspect of this edition at [email protected]. Tzvi Fleischer CONTENTS FEATURE STORIES REGULAR COLUMNS LOOKING TO FROM THE EDITORIAL CHAIRMAN THE FUTURE COLIN RUBENSTEIN ....................................................................... PAGE 4 ................................................. PAGE 5 BY DAVID MAKOVSKY WORD FOR WORD A look at the text of these SCRIBBLINGS documents – collectively TZVI FLEISCHER ............................................................................ PAGE 6 called the Abraham Accords – indicates where they echo and, DECONSTRUCTION ZONE more importantly, diverge from Israel’s past treaties with YOSSI KLEIN HALEVI ..................................................................... PAGE 7 Egypt and Jordan. ................................................................... PAGE 12 ASIA WATCH THE MOMENTUM OF PEACE MICHAEL SHANNON ...................................................................... PAGE 8 BY AMOTZ ASA-EL ....................................................................... PAGE 14 EUROPA EUROPA WHERE DO PALESTINIANS GO FROM HERE? DOUGLAS DAVIS ............................................................................ PAGE 9 BY DANIELLE PLETKA .................................................................. PAGE 16 BEHIND THE NEWS .............................................. PAGE 10 ARABS: ISRAEL IS NOT OUR ENEMY BY KHALED ABU TOAMEH ............................................................ PAGE 19 STRANGER THAN FICTION ........................ PAGE 11 THE “SNAPBACK” CRISIS NOTED AND QUOTED ..................................... PAGE 35 Why the stakes extend beyond Iran BY SETH FRANTZMAN ................................................................. PAGE 22 IN PARLIAMENT ...................................................... PAGE 36 A WRESTLER’S DEATH, A REGIME’S FUTURE MEDIA MICROSCOPE BY MICHAEL RUBIN ..................................................................... PAGE 23 ALLON LEE ................................................................................... PAGE 39 US CONSPIRACY NETWORK DOWN UNDER THE LAST WORD BY NAOMI LEVIN .......................................................................... PAGE 24 JEREMY JONES ........................................................................... PAGE 40 HATEFUL RHETORIC OF HIZB UT-TAHRIR BY RAN PORAT ............................................................................. PAGE 27 HOW TO USE OUR INTERACTIVE EDITION INDONESIA’S CAREFUL RESPONSE BY GIORA ELIRAZ ......................................................................... PAGE 29 • Tap/click to return to the Contents page • All listed articles link to their page. ESSAY: TERROR WAVE THAT SHOOK A NATION • Best viewed in your desktop browser or the Books (iOS) or 20 years after the Second Intifada equivalent e-book reader app in portrait mode. BY HERB KEINON ......................................................................... PAGE 31 3 AIR – October 2020 Australia/Israel Review A journal of analysis and opinion published by the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) Editorial Chairman EDITORIAL Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM Editor-in-Chief Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Senior Contributing Editor THE END OF THE ARAB- JEREMY JONES AM Staff Writers ALLON LEE, JAMIE HYAMS, AHRON ISRAEL CONFLICT? SHAPIRO, SHARYN MITTELMAN, NAOMI LEVIN, OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD Publishing Manager n the aftermath of the Sept. 15 signing in Washington of the Abraham Accords, the MICHAEL SHANNON Correspondents Iseparate peace and normalisation agreements between Israel and the United Arab ISRAEL: AMOTZ ASA-EL Emirates and Israel and Bahrain, the world may be witnessing the emergence of a “new EUROPE: DOUGLAS DAVIS NEW ZEALAND: MIRIAM BELL Middle East”. National Editorial Board However, this is not exactly the starry-eyed vision the late Israeli statesman Shimon KEITH BEVILLE, RABBI RALPH GENENDE OAM, GARY HERZ, MIRIAM Peres set out in his 1993 book titled The New Middle East. LASKY, STEVE LIEBLICH, RABBI JOHN In the aftermath of the Oslo Accords, Peres foresaw a regional peace fueled by cooper- LEVI AM, Hon. HOWARD NATHAN AM, IAN WALLER SC ative economic restructuring and a “a long term process of reciprocal disarmament.” This would only be made possible, he argued, by the resolution of what Peres saw as the core AIJAC issue between Israel and the Arab world: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict. National Chairman MARK LEIBLER AC The Abraham Accords clearly refute such widely-held assumptions about the centrality NSW Chairman of resolving the Palestinian issue as a prerequisite for establishing a foundation of peace, PAUL RUBENSTEIN Executive Director prosperity and stability in the Middle East. Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM It is worth recalling that before anyone ever spoke of an Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there ex- Director of International & Community Affairs isted an Arab-Israel conflict. And while the Palestinian issue remains far from being resolved, there JEREMY JONES AM is today good reason to believe that this older “Arab-Israel conflict” may be coming to an end. Senior Policy Analysts AHRON SHAPIRO, JAMIE HYAMS, ALLON Eight months prior to the publication of Peres’ book, the new chairman of the Likud LEE, NAOMI LEVIN, SHARYN MITTELMAN party, Binyamin Netanyahu – in his own book, A Place Among the Nations – discussed his Policy Analysts OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD ideas for a new Middle East grounded in realism. Associate Director of Public Affairs In it, he could have been speaking about the Abraham Accords. JOEL BURNIE National Media & Public Affairs “Peace,” Netanyahu wrote, “requires that our Arab partners educate their people to an Officer era of mutual acceptance… The Arabs must be asked forthrightly and unconditionally to ARIEL ZOHAR Multimedia Designer make their peace with Israel’s existence. The Arab regimes must move not only to a state AREK DYBEL of nonbelligerency but to a complete renunciation of the desire to destroy the Jewish Events Coordinator HELEN BRUSTMAN OAM state—a renunciation that will gain credibility only when they establish a formal peace Administration with Israel. This means ending the economic boycott and the explosive arms buildup… MELBOURNE: ROSEMARY SANDLER, RENA LANGBERG The Arab states must resign themselves to something they have opposed for so long: not SYDNEY: LOUISE DE MESQUITA merely the fact but the right of Israel’s permanent presence among them.” Israel Liaison PETER ADLER It is therefore significant indeed that the practical implementation of normalisation and Founding Chairmen cooperation embedded in the Abraham Accords is anchored in a text that recognises Jews, ISADOR MAGID AM (OBM) ROBERT ZABLUD (OBM) and by extension their state, Israel, as a member of the family of Abrahamic peoples native HEAD OFFICE to the Middle East. 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