AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL REVIEW

VOLUME 45 No. 10 OCTOBER 2020

AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL & JEWISH AFFAIRS COUNCIL A NEW MIDDLE EAST?

How the aftermath of the UAE- Bahrain-Israel peace deals could transform the region

THE “SNAPBACK” CRISIS TERROR REVISITED CONSPIRACY DOWN ISLAMIST HATE UNDER REVEALED The dispute over renewed UN How the Second Inti- fada, which began 20 The QAnon movement An exposé of the sanctions on Iran will have profound years ago, reshaped makes a splash in ugly rhetoric of international implications ...... PAGE 22 Israel ...... PAGE 31 Australia...... PAGE 24 Hizb ut-Tahrir Aus- tralia ...... PAGE 27 NAME OF SECTION

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AIR – October 2020 AUSTRALIA/ISRAEL VOLUME 45 No. 10 REVIEW OCTOBER 2020 EDITOR’S NOTE NAME OF SECTION his AIR edition focuses on the potentially transformative effect for the whole Middle ON THE COVER TEast of the decision by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain to sign peace (L-R) Israeli Prime Minister Bin- and normalisation agreements with Israel. yamin Netanyahu, US President Washington Institute scholar David Makovksy looks in detail at what those peace Donald Trump, Bahrain Foreign deals actually say, while Amotz Asa-El explores the likelihood that other regional states Affairs Minister Sheikh Khalid will soon also normalise their relations with Israel. In addition, American expert Dani- Bin Ahmed Al-Khalifa and UAE elle Pletka examines Palestinian options now that their traditional Arab supporters are Foreign Affairs Minister Sheikh abandoning their long-standing boycott of Israel, and Khaled Abu Toameh documents Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al how fundamentally Arab media discourse about Israel is changing. Nahyan at the Abraham Accords signing ceremony Also featured this month is Israeli commentator Seth Frantzman arguing that the at the White House, Sept. 15. (Photo: AAP/Jim Lo current international standoff over US efforts to “snapback” UN sanctions on Iran may Scalzo) have very significant global effects. Plus, on the 20th anniversary of the outbreak of the Second Intifada, Israeli journalist Herb Keinon looks at how this bloody terror wave indelibly reshaped Israeli society. And don’t miss: Naomi Levin on the impact in Australia of the dangerous US-based QAnon conspiracy theory; academic Ran Porat’s exposè on the hateful rhetoric of the Australian branch of the Hizb ut-Tahrir international Islamist group; and Michael Rubin on the political implications of Iran’s horrific execution of wrestler Navid Afkari. As always, we invite your feedback on any aspect of this edition at editorial@aijac.org.au. Tzvi Fleischer CONTENTS FEATURE STORIES REGULAR COLUMNS LOOKING TO FROM THE EDITORIAL CHAIRMAN THE FUTURE COLIN RUBENSTEIN ...... PAGE 4 ...... PAGE 5 BY DAVID MAKOVSKY WORD FOR WORD A look at the text of these SCRIBBLINGS documents – collectively TZVI FLEISCHER ...... PAGE 6 called the Abraham Accords – indicates where they echo and, DECONSTRUCTION ZONE more importantly, diverge from Israel’s past treaties with YOSSI KLEIN HALEVI ...... PAGE 7 Egypt and Jordan...... PAGE 12 ASIA WATCH THE MOMENTUM OF PEACE MICHAEL SHANNON ...... PAGE 8 BY AMOTZ ASA-EL ...... PAGE 14 EUROPA EUROPA WHERE DO PALESTINIANS GO FROM HERE? DOUGLAS DAVIS ...... PAGE 9 BY DANIELLE PLETKA ...... PAGE 16 BEHIND THE NEWS...... PAGE 10 ARABS: ISRAEL IS NOT OUR ENEMY BY KHALED ABU TOAMEH ...... PAGE 19 STRANGER THAN FICTION...... PAGE 11 THE “SNAPBACK” CRISIS NOTED AND QUOTED...... PAGE 35 Why the stakes extend beyond Iran BY SETH FRANTZMAN ...... PAGE 22 IN PARLIAMENT...... PAGE 36 A WRESTLER’S DEATH, A REGIME’S FUTURE MEDIA MICROSCOPE BY MICHAEL RUBIN ...... PAGE 23 ALLON LEE ...... PAGE 39 US CONSPIRACY NETWORK DOWN UNDER THE LAST WORD BY NAOMI LEVIN ...... PAGE 24 JEREMY JONES ...... PAGE 40 HATEFUL RHETORIC OF HIZB UT-TAHRIR BY RAN PORAT ...... PAGE 27 HOW TO USE OUR INTERACTIVE EDITION INDONESIA’S CAREFUL RESPONSE BY GIORA ELIRAZ ...... PAGE 29 • Tap/click to return to the Contents page • All listed articles link to their page. ESSAY: TERROR WAVE THAT SHOOK A NATION • Best viewed in your desktop browser or the Books (iOS) or 20 years after the Second Intifada equivalent e-book reader app in portrait mode. BY HERB KEINON ...... PAGE 31 3

AIR – October 2020 Australia/Israel Review A journal of analysis and opinion published by the Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC)

Editorial Chairman

EDITORIAL Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM Editor-in-Chief Dr TZVI FLEISCHER Senior Contributing Editor THE END OF THE ARAB- JEREMY JONES AM Staff Writers ALLON LEE, JAMIE HYAMS, AHRON ISRAEL CONFLICT? SHAPIRO, SHARYN MITTELMAN, NAOMI LEVIN, OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD Publishing Manager n the aftermath of the Sept. 15 signing in Washington of the Abraham Accords, the MICHAEL SHANNON Correspondents Iseparate peace and normalisation agreements between Israel and the United Arab ISRAEL: AMOTZ ASA-EL Emirates and Israel and Bahrain, the world may be witnessing the emergence of a “new EUROPE: DOUGLAS DAVIS NEW ZEALAND: MIRIAM BELL Middle East”. National Editorial Board However, this is not exactly the starry-eyed vision the late Israeli statesman Shimon KEITH BEVILLE, RABBI RALPH GENENDE OAM, GARY HERZ, MIRIAM Peres set out in his 1993 book titled The New Middle East. LASKY, STEVE LIEBLICH, RABBI JOHN In the aftermath of the Oslo Accords, Peres foresaw a regional peace fueled by cooper- LEVI AM, Hon. HOWARD NATHAN AM, IAN WALLER SC ative economic restructuring and a “a long term process of reciprocal disarmament.” This would only be made possible, he argued, by the resolution of what Peres saw as the core AIJAC issue between Israel and the Arab world: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict. National Chairman MARK LEIBLER AC The Abraham Accords clearly refute such widely-held assumptions about the centrality NSW Chairman of resolving the Palestinian issue as a prerequisite for establishing a foundation of peace, PAUL RUBENSTEIN Executive Director prosperity and stability in the Middle East. Dr COLIN RUBENSTEIN AM It is worth recalling that before anyone ever spoke of an Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there ex- Director of International & Community Affairs isted an Arab-Israel conflict. And while the Palestinian issue remains far from being resolved, there JEREMY JONES AM is today good reason to believe that this older “Arab-Israel conflict” may be coming to an end. Senior Policy Analysts AHRON SHAPIRO, JAMIE HYAMS, ALLON Eight months prior to the publication of Peres’ book, the new chairman of the Likud LEE, NAOMI LEVIN, SHARYN MITTELMAN party, Binyamin Netanyahu – in his own book, A Place Among the Nations – discussed his Policy Analysts OVED LOBEL, JUDY MAYNARD ideas for a new Middle East grounded in realism. Associate Director of Public Affairs In it, he could have been speaking about the Abraham Accords. JOEL BURNIE National Media & Public Affairs “Peace,” Netanyahu wrote, “requires that our Arab partners educate their people to an Officer era of mutual acceptance… The Arabs must be asked forthrightly and unconditionally to ARIEL ZOHAR Multimedia Designer make their peace with Israel’s existence. The Arab regimes must move not only to a state AREK DYBEL of nonbelligerency but to a complete renunciation of the desire to destroy the Jewish Events Coordinator HELEN BRUSTMAN OAM state—a renunciation that will gain credibility only when they establish a formal peace Administration with Israel. This means ending the economic boycott and the explosive arms buildup… MELBOURNE: ROSEMARY SANDLER, RENA LANGBERG The Arab states must resign themselves to something they have opposed for so long: not SYDNEY: LOUISE DE MESQUITA merely the fact but the right of Israel’s permanent presence among them.” Israel Liaison PETER ADLER It is therefore significant indeed that the practical implementation of normalisation and Founding Chairmen cooperation embedded in the Abraham Accords is anchored in a text that recognises Jews, ISADOR MAGID AM (OBM) ROBERT ZABLUD (OBM) and by extension their state, Israel, as a member of the family of Abrahamic peoples native

HEAD OFFICE to the Middle East. Level 1, 22 Albert Road, South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia In addition, something like Peres’ vision of mutually beneficial regional economic Telephone: (03) 9681 6660 Fax: (03) 9681 6650 cooperation also may soon become a reality as a result of these agreements. All evidence Email: [email protected] suggests that not only the UAE and Bahrain, but other Persian Gulf states, are interested SYDNEY OFFICE in pursuing just such a vision. 140 William Street East Sydney, NSW 2011, Australia In contrast, 20 years ago, in late September 2000, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat Telephone: (02) 9360 5415 Email: [email protected] launched the bloody, game-changing Second Intifada (see pp. 31-33), months after having

SUBSCRIPTIONS been offered Palestinian statehood for the first time. He thus revealed that Peres had been Please send all remittances, changes of address and subscription inquiries to: mistaken about the sincerity of his Palestinian interlocutors. Australia/Israel Review Level 1, 22 Albert Road Since then, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, civil wars in Syria and Yemen, the rise of Al South Melbourne, VIC 3205, Australia Qaeda and Islamic State and Iranian aggression and nuclear weapons ambitions have made ISSN No. 1442-3693 Print Post Approved – 100007869 a mockery of the notion that settling the Palestinian issue would meaningfully contribute 4 www.aijac.org.au to resolving other regional conflicts.

AIR – October 2020 As award-winning commentator and frequent AIJAC liorate the considerable risks involved in any two-state visitor Ehud Yaari emphasised in recent remarks to Israel’s arrangement. Channel 12, the Abraham Accords, even though signed by The Abraham Accords ultimately came about because the only two Arab states, represent a paradigm shift for the Middle East has changed. Israel impresses its Arab neigh-

Arab world as a whole. They could not have advanced bours as a military power and technological innovator, while EDITORIAL without Saudi approval, and the Arab League effectively common threats – particularly from Iran and Turkey and endorsed them by reject- “The practical implementation of... the Abra- their respective allies – amid ing Palestinian demands to a US tendency to seek disen- condemn them. ham Accords is anchored in a text that rec- gagement from the region, “In practice, the Arab ognises Jews, and by extension their state, are forcing states to rethink Peace Initiative from 2002, Israel, as a member of the family of Abrahamic how to maintain their essen- which made relations with peoples native to the Middle East” tial security. Israel contingent on the Yet some Western establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 lines, countries have been slow to recognise these fundamental [has been] laid to rest,” Yaari said. “The Palestinian veto on changes and discard obsolete policies on everything from the Arabs’ ability to develop open and public relationships the fatally flawed 2015 Iranian nuclear deal to outdated at- with Israel has been shattered.” titudes on the centrality of the Palestinian issue. Yet perhaps counterintuitively, these latest develop- As veteran peace negotiator Dennis Ross wrote in the ments also have the potential to bring the Palestinians back Washington Post, “Old assumptions are like habits: They to the negotiating table, as they remind their leaders that are hard to give up. But the Israeli-UAE-Bahrain break- the world waits for no one. Palestinian leaders have the throughs are a reminder that the political landscape of the agency to take the brave steps necessary to negotiate an Middle East and the Arab-Israeli issue is changing. Time to end to the conflict, and the establishment of a Palestinian change with it.” state existing alongside Israel in peace and prosperity. In our foreign policy echelons, think tanks and univer- The Palestinians can now count on Israel’s new Arab sities, and in the halls of parliament, Australian leaders also friends to advocate for the Palestinians’ legitimate inter- need to be rethinking old dogmas and find creative ways to ests, with Israeli leaders having an incentive to hear them engage with not only the ongoing challenges but also the out. These states can also offer, to both sides, support for emerging – and very promising – “new Middle East”, in and participation in creative arrangements to help ame- ways that serve Australia’s essential interests.

of Israel, Sept. 12).

WORD “The Palestinian leadership see this as a betrayal of the Palestin- FOR WORD ian issue, of Jerusalem and of the al-Aqsa mosque.” Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Israel-UAE- “This is not only a peace between leaders, it’s a peace between Bahrain normalisation (Axios, Sept. 11). peoples. Israelis, Emiratis, and Bahrainis are already embracing one another. We are eager to invest in a future of partnership, “The United States expects all UN Member States to fully prosperity, and peace… together, we can find solutions to many comply with their obligations to implement these measures. In of the problems that afflict our region and beyond.” addition to the arms embargo, this includes restrictions such Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the signing ceremony as the ban on Iran engaging in enrichment and reprocessing- of the Abraham Accords normalising relations with Bahrain and the related activities… among others. If UN Member States fail to UAE (White House, Sept. 15). fulfill their obligations to implement these sanctions, the United States is prepared to use our domestic authorities to impose “I stand here today to extend a hand of peace and receive a hand of consequences.” peace. In our faith, we say, ’O God, you are peace and from you is US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announcing ‘snapback’ is now peace’…Today, we are already witnessing a change in the heart of in effect, meaning UN sanctions on Iran have been reimposed (CNN, the Middle East, a change that will send hope around the world.” Sept. 20). United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed al- Nahyan speaking at the signing ceremony (White House, Sept. 15). “The order of occupation and oppression in Palestine, is the bleeding wound of humanity…The dirty hand that reaches the “The rulers of Bahrain will from now on be partners to the privacy of Jerusalem, where the sacred places of the three great crimes of the Zionist regime as a constant threat to the security religions coexist, is constantly increasing its audacity.” of the region and the world of Islam.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attacking Israel at the UN Iranian Foreign Ministry statement on the Abraham Accords (Times General Assembly (AFP, Sept. 22). 5

AIR – October 2020 ‘In return for what?’ according to a person familiar with details of the exchange.” To be clear, the PA is rejecting the receipt of more than US$100 million per month of Palestinian money. This COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION Tzvi Fleischer money is taxes paid by Palestinians on imported goods, collected by Israel on the Palestinians’ behalf under long- TO SPITE YOUR FACE…? standing agreements. The Palestinian Authority (PA) was very angry and Diplomats who met with Abbas say he does not want upset about Israeli Government plans to extend Israeli to go back to the previous arrangements with Israel until sovereignty to parts of the West Bank in accordance with he gets “some new concessions from Israel with which to the map provided in the Trump Ad- assure the Palestinian public that his re- ministration’s peace plan. Opposition jection of the money, and their summer- to the plans for “annexation”, as the PA long hardship, were not all in vain,” labelled it, led the PA to cut off almost according to the story. all cooperation with Israel. This involved Other aspects of Israeli-Palestinian not only things like creating a financial cooperation which benefit Palestinians crisis in the PA’s budget by rejecting also remain suspended, such as the ar- tax transfers from Israel, and making it rangements for permits to get Palestin- very hard for sick Palestinians who need The current self-destructive policies of the ians needed medical treatment. medical treatment in Israeli hospitals Palestinian Authority are hard to understand What makes this doubly irrespon- to get it, but even curtailing security sible is that the West Bank, like Israel, is cooperation with Israeli security forces. Security coopera- in the midst of a coronavirus second wave, averaging more tion has been essential in helping the PA control efforts by than 500 new cases per day by mid-September, so Palestin- Hamas and other radical groups to overthrow PA rule in ians urgently need fully functioning government services. the West Bank. As Danielle Pletka notes in this edition, the Palestinian In other words, these measures clearly hurt Palestin- leadership has a long history of making poor choices. But the ians and the PA much more than they hurt Israel. But apparently pointless refusal to accept money the PA is en- perhaps they can be understood as a way to express anger titled to and desperately needs seems to go beyond that. It is over what the Palestinians argue was an Israeli plan to steal not just a poor choice but an almost incomprehensible one. “their” land. But here’s the weird thing – in the wake of the Israel- MORE ON THE ISLAMIST PA RESPONSE UAE deal, so-called annexation is now “off the table”, at TO NORMALISATION least for the next few years. And yet the PA appears to Last month in this space, I documented how the sup- have cancelled none of its “anti-annexation” measures, with posedly secular Palestinian Authority had been using both the PA and ordinary Palestinians suffering as a result, Islamist arguments to oppose the United Arab Emirates apparently pointlessly. (UAE) plans to normalise relations with Israel – basically It is true that Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu said that arguing that doing so was a violation of Islam, a religious the plans to extend sovereignty were only “suspended”, and sin. not cancelled. This was to salve the blow to key domestic This has continued. More than this, the PA has also constituencies which very much wanted the sovereignty been invoking Islamic religious sources to send antisemitic extension to go ahead, but the US Administration has made messages about Jews, not ‘just’ Israelis or Zionists. it very clear it will not approve such a move anytime soon, On Sept. 17, the PA Ministry of Religious Affairs issued and without US approval, it will not happen. guidelines for the sermons to be delivered in West Bank Yet as the New York Times reported on Sept. 11, PA mosques on that Friday, Sept. 18. The messages the PA de- President Mahmoud Abbas is still refusing to accept taxes manded all imams preach to their congregations included collected by Israel on behalf of the PA, which “account (translation by Palestinian Media Watch): for more than 60 percent of the authority’s budget.” As a • “There is nothing that harms Palestine and its holy result, “salaries in the territory are not being paid, families sites more than making an alliance with the Jews, being are enduring hardships, and the Palestinian Authority is connected to them, and relying on them.” careering toward bankruptcy,” the paper reported. • “Normalisation with the Zionist entity is high treason Moreover, the NY Times story reported that: against Palestine, Jerusalem, the blood of the Martyrs, and “When the British foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, the suffering of the prisoners,” encouraged Mr. Abbas to take the money in a meeting • Calling on “the Arab and Islamic peoples and the 6 in Ramallah [in early September], Mr. Abbas responded, free people of the world to stand with Palestine in or-

AIR – October 2020 der to bring down the agreement of humiliation The peace agreement with the UAE and Bahrain reas- and treason by the UAE and Bahrain [emphasis in sures Israelis that they will prevail against BDS too. original].” The signing is a belated vindication of the 1979 Egyp- Imams were also to warn against “Obedience to the tian-Israeli peace agreement. After the Yom Kippur War,

Jews and being dragged after them.” Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat concluded that Israel would COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION Cited as a source for the sermon was a potentially never be defeated militarily. After all, Yom Kippur was the problematic verse from the Quran which has generally Arab world’s best shot at destroying Israel. Yet a two-front been interpreted as a warning to Muslims against trust- surprise attack ended with the IDF within firing range of ing Jews and Christians: “And never will the Jews or the Cairo and Damascus. Christians approve of you until you follow their religion Today’s peace agreement confirms the core message of [Sura 2:120].” the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement: The prerequisite for Needless to say, this message against allying with or Middle East peace is Israeli power. trusting “Jews” is not very encouraging for any future Israeli power is driving this peace. In its fear of Iran and Israeli-Palestinian coexistence, especially when framed in Turkey, both of which seek to dominate the Middle East, religious terms. the Arab world is turning to Israel. Israel’s economic power is an additional incentive: This is an alliance of countries focused more on the future than the past. But it is not only Israeli power that made this agree- ment possible, but Israeli pragmatism. The breakthrough Yossi Klein Halevi happened when Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu agreed to rescind the threat of unilaterally extending THE PREREQUISITE FOR PEACE IS Israeli sovereignty to large parts of the territories. In other ISRAELI POWER words: The leader of the Israeli Right effectively granted The peace treaty signed on Sept. 15 by Israel and the an Arab country a say in its internal decision-making. Set- United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain was a retroactive tler leaders have denounced that decision as a betrayal of victory over one of the greatest threats Israel ever faced. Israeli sovereignty. But it is an essential affirmation of the Nearly half a century ago, immediately following the logic of this time: Israeli security is enhanced by regional 1973 Yom Kippur War, Arab oil producers imposed a boy- interdependence. cott on nations considered pro-Israel. In the US, Canada, And the Palestinians? They have lost their veto power England, the Netherlands and Japan, long lines formed over peace, and that too is an Israeli victory. Even as they at the petrol pump. Almost all of Africa severed relations lose their most powerful allies, Palestinian leaders con- with Israel. Western Europe began its pro-Palestinian tilt tinue to respond with the failed politics of rejectionism not because of a sudden moral awakening but because of and a culture of hatred. the threat of an oil cut-off. Only an unequivocal Palestinian offer to confine the There was no greater strategic threat to Israel than Arab “right of return” to a Palestinian state and remove the oil, which was effectively turning it into a pariah state. The threat of undermining Israel’s Jewish majority can con- mood in Israel and throughout the Jewish world was bleak. vince large numbers of Israelis to again consider a two- Elie Wiesel wrote an op-ed in the New York Times caution- state solution. The Palestinians must choose between ing Jews against despair. Cynthia Ozick wrote an essay for “return” and statehood. Yet no Palestinian leader is willing Esquire titled, “All the World Wants the Jews Dead.” or able to speak that truth to his own people. The culminating moment of the Arab oil boycott came Still, the peace agreement with the Gulf states doesn’t on Nov. 10, 1975, when the UN General Assembly voted absolve Israel of the need to reach out to the Palestinians. to declare Zionism a form of racism. Especially today, an Israeli leader should appeal to our Today, Israel has a peace treaty with the UAE, one of Palestinian neighbours from the heart, acknowledging the world’s major oil producers, and with oil-rich Bah- their suffering, and offering, together with our new allies rain. And the agreement is being quietly blessed by Saudi in the Arab world, a way out of a century of conflict. Arabia. Peace with Israel is being driven by the same forces Along with power, then, there is one more prerequisite that once led the campaign against its legitimacy. for ending the conflict: Israeli wisdom and generosity. Ironically, even as large parts of the Arab world come to That won’t likely happen today. Resolving this conflict terms with a Jewish majority state, the opposite process is awaits a new generation of Israeli and Palestinian leaders. happening in the West. The Arab boycott of Israel is over; Is it possible? If you had told me half a century ago that BDS [the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement] normalisation with Israel would be driven by Arab oil pro- lives. ducers, and that the wealth created by oil would motivate 7

AIR – October 2020 Arab nations to seek common cause with an economically League, UAE and Bahrain which recognised the normalisa- powerful Israel, I would have smiled and dismissed you as tion of diplomatic relations with Israel, which is a form of a fool. violation and hostility towards the Ummah.” Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad COLUMNS NAME OF SECTION Yossi Klein Halevi is a senior fellow at the Shalom Hartman Insti- predictably slammed the normalisation agreement con- tute. His latest book, Letters to My Palestinian Neighbor, is a cluded between the UAE and Israel, describing it as a “step New York Times bestseller. © Times of Israel (www.timesofIs- backward”. rael.com), reprinted by permission, all right reserved. In remarks to This Week in Asia newspaper, Mahathir said: “The agreement will divide the Islamic world into warring factions where the Israelis would be able to pour fuel on fire in this conflict.” “The agreement will increase the warring parties’ ability to fight each other, and there will be no peace even Michael Shannon between Islamic countries,” he said, arguing that the deal would strengthen the Israeli claim that Palestine is a prop- TRUE TO FORM erty of Israel. Outside of the Middle East, Malaysia is arguably one of The opinion columns are another barometer of political the world’s most anti-Israel countries – a country where debates, and there was near unanimity about the Abraham vanishingly few have ever even met a Jewish person, let Accords. alone an Israeli. As it is elsewhere in the Muslim world, In the New Straits Times, under the plaintive title “How conspicuous support for the Palestinians is voiced at the much do we care about Palestine?”, former ambassador to highest levels of the Malaysian government. the Netherlands and Fiji Dr Fauziah Mohd Taib argued, “It Indeed, it’s hard to conceive of an event that would is not for Islamic solidarity that hardcore supporters like shift this paradigm. The unprecedented Abraham Accords Malaysia must hold firmly to the Palestinian cause. It has to between Israel and two Gulf states in the heart of the do with humanitarian rights of the people who are slowly Arab world elicited predictable responses across the main being forced to abandon their own land to give way to the political groupings, viewing the deal primarily through the colonisers.” prism of Palestinian interests. The New Straits Times’ own editorial leader, a good in- Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said Malaysia dicator of mainstream political opinion in Malaysia, stated viewed the normalisation of relations between the UAE and that “To sign a treaty with Israel while the Palestinians’ land Israel as the sovereign right of the former, but reiterated Ma- remains occupied, as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain laysia’s “long-held position that the creation of an independent did on Tuesday, is a big mistake.” Palestine through a two-state solution, based on the pre-1967 The Times conceded that “the UAE and Bahrain are borders, with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine as the independent countries and they are free to do what is good only viable solution to the Palestine-Israel conflict.” for their national interests,” but concluded: Representing the largest constituent party of the “Israel can’t strip a people of their land and pray for governing coalition, UMNO Deputy President Mohamad peace. Neither Israel nor the Middle East will have peace Hasan said, “Although it is the sovereign right of a country so long as the Palestinians are denied their rights… Ul- to recognise the Israeli regime, it is clearly against the soli- timately, justice brings peace. The Americans and Israelis darity of the Islamic state towards Palestine and its people.” may ignore this, but the Arabs mustn’t.” Mohamad also accused Israel of acting treacherously However, a balancing argument was published in the towards Palestinians, Muslims, and the peace process. “The Malay Mail by Khalid Ghanim Alghaith, the United Arab rights and homeland of Palestine are not merely items that Emirates’ Ambassador to Malaysia, who reminded Ma- can be traded with political recognition of a tyrannical laysians that, “many countries, including Organisation for regime,” he said. Islamic Cooperation (OIC) members, have developed rela- The conservative Islamist PAS, a fellow ruling coalition tions with Israel over the past decades.” partner, made its position known via a resolution unani- “Sadly, we have all come to realise that the boycott mously adopted by its general assembly in mid-September, of the past years did not fulfil the aspirations of the Arab urging all Muslims and Islamic governments to “protest peoples in general and the Palestinian people in particular,” and condemn the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital the Ambassador continued. “We, therefore, believe in the of Israel as well as any form of normalisation of diplomatic necessity of breaking the deadlock in the political process relations with Israel to curb the expansion of its political and to promote a two-state solution, where Palestine power and occupation of Palestine.” and Israel live side by side in understanding, peace and 8 The assembly also condemned “the actions of the Arab prosperity.”

AIR – October 2020 The agreement struck between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain was the first such pact with an Arab country in a quarter of a century (Egypt, 1979; Jordan 1994). It was no less historic for that. NAME OF SECTION Douglas Davis While Egypt and Jordan were both front-line states that COLUMNS had been to war against Israel, the peace treaties removed THE REAL ARAB SPRING them from the future battlefield. Moreover, the absence of Europe applauded the historic normalisation deals Egypt, the most powerful and populous Arab state, made between Israel and two Gulf states last month. But many it impossible for any other Arab state, or coalition of Arab European nations, still clutching their ancient, dog-eared states, to consider military action against Israel without Arabist script, were clapping with only one hand. them. The occasion was as important for the signatories – Of course, the Gulf states had never posed a military Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain – as it was threat to Israel. Instead, the normalisation agreements not for regional stability, said a European Commission spokes- only signalled the end of any lingering trade embargoes woman, before quickly adding: “Of course, we are com- against Israel but offered the prospects of partnerships that mitted to a two-state solution and we are ready to work on would enable the oil-rich Gulf states to marry their finan- a resumption of the negotiations between the Israelis and cial capital with Israel’s world-class technology – including the Palestinians.” weaponry. The agreements promise economic and techno- That was the line of logical power for all involved. most of the European Israel and the Gulf states have not looked like enemies states who acknowledged for a long time: “Publicly the Gulf states have hosted Israeli the occasion. Among the ministers and athletes; covertly their business and intelli- least cool was German gence dealings have been gaining strength with every year,” Foreign Minister Heiko noted one regional analyst in London. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, who hailed the More Gulf sheikdoms, along with several notably influ- Maas: Peace deal “historic” but... treaty as “historic”, add- ential Muslim states in Africa, are anxious not to lose out ing: “I have just spoken to on the prosperity that normalisation can bring, and they Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi on the telephone are likely to follow the examples of the United Arab Emir- and offered him my congratulations on this historic step. ates and Bahrain before long. Think Oman, think Morocco, The normalisation of relations is an important contribution among others. to achieving peace in the region.” Israeli Intelligence Minister Eli Cohen predicted that “It is good that the Israeli Government has agreed to additional agreements, both with more Gulf countries and suspend its annexation plans,” he added. “We hope that this with Muslim countries in Africa, were likely to be on the agreement will be the starting point for further positive way. “In my assessment, there is a chance that already in developments in the region and that it can also inject fresh the coming year there will be a peace deal with additional impetus into the Middle East peace process. We continue countries in Africa, chief among them Sudan.” to maintain that only a negotiated two-state solution can The big prize would be Saudi Arabia, but that might be bring lasting peace to the Middle East.” some time off. Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, de Some other European states produced similar ex- facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has acknowledged that formal pressions of limited, heavily qualified satisfaction for the relations with Israel would be mutually beneficial. He normalisation deals. But when the rubber hit the road, appears envious of Israel’s economic and technological Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, was the only might, but formal ties are probably still a step too far for ministerial-level European who made the transatlantic the Guardian of Mecca and Medina. journey to the signing ceremony in Washington. The elephant in the room remains the Palestinians. “Since the White House prepared the agenda for stabi- Europe might still plead their case but the caravan is lising the region, this has … proved to be the best peace moving on. The Arab states, particularly in the Gulf, are plan thus far and promises to bring peace in the Middle more concerned about the threat posed by Iran and ex- East at last,” Szijjarto noted on his Facebook page: “The US ploiting their pragmatic search for prosperity in partner- President thus deserves gratitude,” he noted, adding praise ship with Israel. for Israeli, UAE and Bahraini leaders. The naysaying Palestinians, begging bowl in hand, still Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose mired in corruption, victimhood and a sense of entitle- hard-line rhetoric, particularly on immigration, has often ment, will have to wait. sparked criticism in the EU, was an early and avid sup- In the meantime, the Arab states of the Gulf are sensing porter of US President Donald Trump. that they are, finally, on the edge of a real Arab Spring. 9

AIR – October 2020 BEHIND THE NEWS BEHIND THE ROCKET AND TERROR the Red Sea, saving significant time REPORT for many travellers to and from Israel, Six rockets were fired from Gaza including from Australia. Saudi Arabia into Israel on Aug. 28, all landing in also stands to benefit by using Israeli open areas. airspace to cut the flight time needed Incendiary balloons and rocket to reach Europe. fire ceased for two weeks after Hamas and Israel agreed to calm tensions, The Arab League: No longer automatically in a deal brokered by Qatar, on Aug. backing the Palestinians IRAN URANIUM 31, but restarted immediately after ENRICHMENT ALMOST the Sept. 15 signing ceremony of the Riyad al-Maliki announced that the PA ENOUGH FOR TWO Israel-UAE-Bahrain normalisation would not be taking up the six-month BOMBS agreements in Washington. chairmanship of the Arab League it The periodical report on Iran On Sept. 15 and 16, Gazan fac- was due to assume under the League’s by the International Atomic Energy tions fired at least 15 rockets at Israel, leadership rotation system. Al-Maliki Agency (IAEA), released on Sept. 4, eight of which were intercepted by said, “There is no honour in seeing reveals that Teheran has now enriched Iron Dome. Two Israelis were injured Arabs rush towards normalisation approximately two tons of uranium, by a rocket that struck Ashdod. during [Palestine’s] presidency.” which is 10 times the amount of low On Aug. 26, a Palestinian stabbed Separately, the Secretary-General enriched uranium it was allowed to an Israeli civilian to death in the of the Palestine Liberation Organisa- stock under the terms of the 2015 central Israeli city of Petah Tikvah. tion (PLO) Saeb Erekat announced on nuclear deal (JCPOA). This means On Sept. 2, a Palestinian carried out a Sept. 8 that most Arab countries had Iran has almost enough fissile mate- car ramming and attempted stabbing stopped paying their dues towards the rial for two atomic warheads, with in the northern West Bank, injuring a PLO budget. the breakout time needed to produce soldier and policeman. Meanwhile, there were hopes that enough military grade uranium for On Sept. 14, Jewish terrorist a meeting between Sudan, the US and a bomb estimated at three to four Amiram Ben Uliel was given three life the UAE in Abu Dhabi that took place months. sentences for the firebombing of the in late September may lead to Su- In mid-September, IAEA inspec- Dawabsha family home in the West dan normalising relations with Israel tors reportedly visited a site in Iran Bank Palestinian town of Duma, kill- shortly, after months of talks. suspected of being part of the clan- ing three people, in 2015. destine Amad nuclear weapons proj- ect, which ceased operations around SAUDI-ISRAEL AIRSPACE 2003. The monitors were also sched- ARAB LEAGUE AGREEMENT uled to visit another such site a few TURNS AGAINST THE All flights to and from Israel will weeks later, after their access to both PALESTINIANS soon be permitted to overfly Saudi locations had previously been blocked At a virtual meeting of the Arab Arabia, according to senior White by Teheran. League on Sept. 9, the Palestinian House adviser Jared Kushner, speak- Authority (PA) failed to persuade the ing on Sept. 8. This is a significant League to condemn the normalisa- development since in an earlier state- QATAR ALLEGEDLY tion deal between the UAE and Israel, ment, made on Sept. 2 in the wake FUNDED HEZBOLLAH even on the technical basis that it of the announcement of the Israel- ARMS went against the 2002 Arab Peace UAE normalisation deal, Riyadh had Qatar funded and facilitated a Initiative. That initiative, which the only said that it would allow over- Hezbollah arms shipment from Serbia League had formally adopted, said flight by flights between Israel and to Lebanon in an elaborate scheme normalisation should not take place the UAE. paid for by Ugandan gold, according before Israeli agreed to establish a Extending this permission to all to a new report by the Austrian-based Palestinian state on the 1967 lines. eastward travel from Israel avoids the think tank Mena-Watch. 10 On Sept. 22, PA Foreign Minister need for Israeli planes to detour along According to the Sept. 8 report,

AIR – October 2020 the trade, which took place in 2017, forces had committed war crimes ISRAEL REIMPOSES involved high level Qatari officials, when, in 2010, they intercepted the LOCKDOWN OVER COVID- including a member of its royal family. Turkish ship Mavi Marmara as it tried 19 SURGE Arms, labelled as building materials to breach the blockade of Gaza. Nine The Israeli Government decreed a and badged as local steel goods, were Turkish citizens were killed in the nationwide lockdown on Sept. 19, its NEWS BEHIND THE reportedly moved through North battle. second since the coronavirus pandemic Macedonia and Greece, and from This was the third time the ICC’s began earlier this year, to combat a there shipped from Thessaloniki to Pretrial Chamber had pushed ICC dangerous second wave of infections Beirut. Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda to pro- sweeping the country. As of Sept. 23, The arms dealers were reportedly ceed with the case, and the third time Israel had 58,402 active cases, with paid in Ugandan gold that had been she had decided to close her probe. 658 in serious condition. New daily purchased by Qatari-based charities. Among the reasons given for her cases reached an all-time high of 6,948 decision was that the matter had been on Sept. 23. On that date, Israel had investigated by the IDF legal divi- amassed a total of 200,041 cases of NEW EMBASSIES IN sion, effectively finding that the Israeli coronavirus since the pandemic began, JERUSALEM investigation met the requirements of with a death toll of 1,316. On Sept. 21, Honduras became the ICC. In the Palestinian Territories, ac- the most recent nation to announce Bensouda also noted that the cording to reports from Palestinian it would move its embassy to Jerusa- Israeli forces had attempted to use health officials, 8,683 active cases had lem, joining the US and Guatemala. non-military means to take control been recorded in the West Bank and Honduran President Juan Orlando of the ship, and had swiftly provided 1,669 in Gaza as of Sept. 14. Particu- Hernandez said he hoped this would medical aid to those injured in the larly in Gaza, it is thought that the happen before the end of the year, battle, suggesting they had observed actual number of cases is higher due pandemic permitting. international law. to low testing rates. The West Bank’s On Sept. 5, the President of coronavirus death toll was 206, and Malawi, Lazarus Chakwera, declared Gaza’s 15, as of Sept. 10. his country’s intention to open an embassy in Jerusalem. However, the poster was actually just a This followed announcements mirror-image of a graphic taken from the on Sept. 4 by Serbia that it would prospectus for Israel’s own breakthrough move its embassy from Tel Aviv to “Arrow” anti-missile system. Jerusalem, and from Muslim major- REVERSE-ENGINEERING Needless to say, Iran has no similar ity Kosovo that it would recognise ON STEROIDS system. Israel and also open an embassy in The Iranian regime enjoys boasting This is not the first time this has hap- Jerusalem. However, both Serbia about its prowess in military technology, pened. In 2019, Iran used a picture released and Kosovo came under pressure frequently unveiling self-produced new by the IDF spokesperson of an Israeli soldier not to do so by the European Union. weapons with much using a rifle grenade European officials warned establish- fanfare. In many to advertise an Ira- ing embassies in Jerusalem could cases, the ‘new’ nian rifle which was adversely affect Serbia’s and Kosovo’s systems are replicas a copy of the Israeli EU membership bids. of arms produced one. Further complicating the issue, by other countries, Given the Serbia is also reportedly unlikely to go locally reverse-engi- regime’s animus for ahead with the embassy move if Israel neered by Iran. the Jewish state, its recognises Kosovo. A few weeks security services ago, the Iranians The Iranian Defence Ministry exhibition with the poster in question certainly do seem broke new ground to have a surprising ICC CLOSES MAVI with their reverse-engineering capa- fondness for Israeli weapons systems. MARMARA WAR CRIMES bilities. In early September, the Iranian Now if only Teheran would seek to INVESTIGATION Ministry of Defence opened an exhibi- replicate the peace agreements between On Sept. 16, the International tion celebrating Iran’s achievements in Israel and other countries on the Gulf, Criminal Court (ICC) announced that weapons development. One of the post- this would do far more for regional secu- it had closed for good its investigation ers in the exhibition featured graphics rity than any weapons system Iran could into allegations that Israeli security of a supposed Iranian weapons system. reverse-engineer. 11

AIR – October 2020 COVER STORY NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES THE NEW MIDDLE EAST?

THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS LOOK FORWARD, NOT BACK

by David Makovsky

n September 15, US President Donald Trump hosted As for the Jordanian treaty, King Hussein and Israeli OUnited Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin sought to defuse any poten- Zayed, Bahrain’s Foreign Minister Abdullatif al-Zayani tial for renewed conflict through novel territorial solutions and Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu as they (e.g., Israel leasing border land for 25 years) and last- signed historic new normalisation agreements on the minute understandings on water rights. At the time, water White House lawn. A look at the text of these documents issues were an acute source of conflict in the Middle East; – collectively called the Abraham they are somewhat less so today Accords – indicates where they given advances in desalination. echo and, more importantly, In short, both treaties were diverge from Israel’s past treaties agreements between governments with Egypt and Jordan. seeking to close the book on military conflict with Israel, even CONTRASTS WITH as the Palestinian issue remained PREVIOUS TREATIES unresolved and normalisation The 1979 Egyptian treaty between their societies remained with Israel and 1994 Jordanian uncertain. treaty with Israel focused to By contrast, the agreements varying degrees on complet- signed this year were largely free ing the unfinished business of of the baggage of the past. armed conflict. In the former For one thing, the UAE and case, the scope of restricted Bahrain do not border Israel and military zones in the Sinai never fought against it on the Peninsula was critical given battlefield, so there is no sense that Egypt and Israel had fought of public trauma on either side. wars against each other in 1948, Although the Gulf states have 1956, 1967 and 1973. That formally participated in Arab The Egyptian and Jordanian peace agreements focused last war came just a few short upon defusing the legacies of past armed conflicts boycotts of Israel since 1948, years before Egyptian President they have forged semi-covert ties Anwar Sadat’s electrifying 1977 visit to Jerusalem. of varying degrees with the Jewish state in recent years. Other regional leaders were unable to move past such Tellingly, when Palestinian officials urged the Arab League recent traumas – their opposition to Egypt charting its to condemn the new Emirati agreement, the organisation own course was so great that the Arab League moved instead noted that individual Arab states are entitled to its headquarters from Cairo to Tunis and did not return make their own sovereign decisions on such matters – a 12 until a decade later. far cry from the League’s dramatic opposition to the Camp

AIR – October 2020 includes a passage on how Arabs and Jews “stem from the same ancestor, Abraham” and are both indigenous to the Middle

East. Such phrasing is impor- NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES tant because it clearly refutes longstanding allegations in the Arab world that Zionism is alien to the region. Cultural peace. Israeli of- ficials intimately involved in the UAE deal privately say that the Emiratis were emphatic about focusing on interfaith under- standing and religious tolerance. As the treaty itself notes, “The Parties undertake to foster mutual understanding, respect, co-existence, and a culture of The Sept. 15 White House signing ceremony involved documents that had some notable differences from past Israeli peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan peace between their societies in the spirit of their common David Accords in 1979. ancestor, Abraham, and the new era of peace and friendly The Abraham Accords are about charting a new course relations ushered in by this Treaty, including by cultivat- for the region, one based on closer Arab-Israeli alignment ing people-to-people programs, interfaith dialogue, and regarding strategic issues and economic opportunities. cultural, academic, youth, scientific, and other exchanges The agreements also have significant potential to encour- between their peoples.” age peace between peoples, including tourism, trade and Indeed, the agreement holds substantial promise pre- investment links, rather than just between governments. cisely because both parties recognise the need to reach out on a societal level, not just a governmental level. NOTEWORTHY TEXTUAL POINTS To be sure, Israel’s treaties with Egypt and Jordan What’s in a name? The Emirati-Israeli text is longer mentioned many of the same normalisation issues laid out than the Bahraini accord because the two governments had in the UAE treaty. Yet these issues were largely relegated time for a round of bilateral working to annexes and were never fulfilled in “The Abraham Accords groups in the weeks leading up to the practice. signing ceremony – they covered issues are about charting a new Focus on the bilateral. Bahrain, such as civil aviation and investment, course for the region, one Israel and the UAE did not want to be though there are of course more techni- based on closer Arab- accused of either trying to negotiate for calities to iron out in the coming months. Israeli alignment regard- the Palestinians or usurping Jordan’s role Israeli officials wanted the UAE as custodian of the Temple Mount/Haram agreement to be called a “treaty of peace” ing strategic issues and al-Sharif in Jerusalem. in order to put it on par with previous economic opportunities” Therefore, the accords do not call for treaties—they pointed to comparable any changes in access to that city’s holy examples in modern history where countries not in direct sites. Instead, their focus is strictly on bilateral issues such conflict characterised their agreements as “peace treaties.” as aviation, trade, and taxation. The Emirati treaty could Ultimately, the document was titled “Abraham Accords also serve as a template for fuller Israeli agreements with Peace Agreement: Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations, Bahrain and other potential Arab partners. and Full Normalisation Between the United Arab Emirates For now, a third document signed on Sept. 15 – the and the State of Israel.” shorter, more generalised “Abraham Accords Declara- By contrast, the Bahraini breakthrough was announced tion”—is designed to encourage common regional aspira- on Sept. 11, just a few days before the ceremony. The tions for peace, according to officials. resulting document is therefore quite brief: its title is Regional security architecture? The seventh “Abraham Accords: Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, paragraph of the Emirati agreement reads: “The Parties and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations.” stand ready to join with the United States to develop and Israel’s place in the region. The UAE agreement launch a ‘Strategic Agenda for the Middle East’ in order 13

AIR – October 2020 to expand regional diplomatic, trade, stability, and other cooperation. They are committed to work together, and THE MOMENTUM OF with the United States and others, as appropriate, in order PEACE to advance the cause of peace, stability, and prosperity in

NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES the relations between them and for the Middle East as a whole, including by seeking to advance regional security by Amotz Asa-El and stability.” In theory, the reference to “regional security and stabil- ericho had not been so stunned since Joshua’s trum- ity” could be seen as a rubric for wider security coopera- Jpeters felled its walls. tion. Yet the treaty does not call for a mutual defence Speaking in a Palestinian refugee camp outside the bib- alliance, so it cannot be reasonably interpreted as pointing lical oasis city, Tunisian President Habib Bourguiba called at Iran – in fact, Emirati officials wanted to avoid any such on the Arab world to recognise impression entirely. Even so, some observers may argue Israel because “the policy of all that paragraph seven will unite those governments in the or nothing only led to defeat.” region who are uncomfortable with political Islam, per- It was 1965, and the haps encouraging them to form an axis against states who speech was met with hostility ardently favour it (e.g., Iran, Turkey, Qatar). throughout the Arab world. The Six Day War, which broke CONCLUSION out two years later, made the Tunisian President Habib Ultimately, the test of whether a treaty becomes a dead Bourguiba called for normali- Arab League further harden its sation in 1965 letter or a source of action is the political resolve of the position, when it adopted, in parties involved. For Israel and the UAE, the rationale Khartoum, its “Three Noes” resolution, which said no to behind the accord stems from their strong alignment on peace, recognition or negotiations with Israel. two fronts: 1. marginalising the region’s most destabilising Bourguiba’s unorthodoxy was thus relegated to a his- forces amid concerns about gradual American pullback; torical anecdote, and remained such until then Egyptian and 2. removing barriers between two of the most glo- President Anwar Sadat’s visit to Israel in 1977. Now, 55 balised and technologically focused countries in the Middle years and three historical turning points after his Jericho East. speech, the day when most Arabs are prepared to follow This same logic led Emirati Minister of State Anwar Bourguiba’s advice suddenly seems to be drawing near. Gargash to publicly state that he foresees a “warm peace,” The three turning points that followed the 1965 speech and Israel is certainly eager to continue dissolving its were Egypt’s peace with Israel in 1979, the agreements regional isolation. Yet if either party’s political determina- struck between Israel and the Palestinians in 1993-1995 tion flags, for whatever reason, even the best text will be and Israel’s treaty with Jordan in 1994. Now the accords unable to advance their peace any further. that the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed with Israel on Sept. 15 at the White House mark a new historic David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at The turning point, one notably different from the past three Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and co-author with both in terms of the motivations of the Arab leaders in- Dennis Ross of the book Be Strong and of Good Courage: volved, and in terms of the deals’ potential domino effects. How Israel’s Most Important Leaders Shaped Its Destiny. In terms of motivation, there is no equivalent today © Washington Institute (www.washingtoninstitute.org). reprinted to the economic constraints that led Egypt and Jordan to by permission, all rights reserved. make peace with Israel, after each had spent billions they didn’t have on wars they didn’t win. The UAE and Bahrain are both rich, and they have never actively fought against Israel. Neither faces anything like the demographic prob- lems that overpopulated Egypt had when the decision was taken to make peace with Israel. Instead, the UAE made its move because it sees in Israel a strategic counterweight to nearby Iran, and a worthy trade partner for the Arab world’s most developed econ- omy. Bahrain then followed its example. This mercantile attitude is unprecedented in Arab-Is- raeli relations, which until now have overwhelmingly been low key. Jordan and Egypt, while signing big energy deals 14 with Israel and allowing some Israeli investment in textile

AIR – October 2020 production, mostly shunned direct Israeli investments, with Israel, before severing those ties in 2000 in the wake agricultural cooperation and cultural ties. of the outbreak of the Second Intifada. The imminent launch of direct flights between Tel Aviv At the same time, Oman maintains good ties with and Dubai is expected to attract an influx of Israeli tour- Teheran, striving to play mediator between Iran and Saudi ists to the Emirates, whom the Emirati people seem eager Arabia. This inclination might convince Muscat to wait for NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES to greet. But if tourism is likely to connect middle class Riyadh to move first, a prospect that will presumably make Israelis to the UAE, the country’s financial sector, defence the Iranians understand that Omani diplomacy can only establishment and free trade zones are expected to attract maintain a limited distance from that of Saudi Arabia. Israeli big business. Bahrain, an island kingdom of 1.6 million people 200 he two remaining Gulf countries – Qatar and Kuwait km north of the UAE, is not as economically vibrant as its T– are more complex. neighbour, but the sig- Qatar, a peninsula nificance of that monarchy’s wedged between the Emir- move lies in its very decision ates and Bahrain, admitted to follow its neighbour’s lead an Israeli trade representa- and establish full recognition tive in 1996 and later held of the Jewish state. It is a many public meetings with choice that others may soon Israeli leaders. However, the follow. Israeli envoy was asked to Both Israeli Prime Minis- leave Doha in January 2009 ter Binyamin Netanyahu and in the wake of the IDF’s Op- US President Donald Trump eration Cast Lead in Gaza. have flagged that more Arab Even so, trade relations countries are set to sign between the two countries peace deals with Israel. The persisted, and media reports most significant of all the claim there is also a vibrant potential candidates is Saudi defence relationship. Then Arabia. again, relations with Qatar It has long been an open are obstructed by its vehe- secret that Jerusalem and ment disagreements with Riyadh have been sharing Saudi Arabia and Egypt over intelligence, and that as- issues that have nothing to do sorted Israeli technologies with Israel, such as the civil have been sold to the desert war in Libya. kingdom. Moreover, it is Qatar joins Turkey in sid- clear the Emirati and Bah- ing in that conflict with the raini moves would not have Tripoli-based Government been made without full Saudi Will other Persian Gulf states follow the UAE/Bahrain example? Saudi of National Accord (GNA) approval. Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Muhammed Bin Salman (top); under Prime Minister Fayez Pundits in Israel believe Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani (bottom) al-Sarraj, while Egypt, Saudi the US is pressuring the Arabia and the UAE back Saudi Kingdom to make a move, but Riyadh is waiting to the forces of Gen. Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National see what happens in November’s presidential election in Army (LNA). Qatar also hosts a Turkish military base, in the US. If Trump is re-elected, chances are high the King- an affront to Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi. His en- dom will recognise Israel. If Biden wins, the Saudis might mity with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is open prefer to wait and see where his administration heads and and intense, due to the latter’s support of Sisi’s Islamist how they get along. opposition. Another natural candidate to make peace with Israel is Further context is the fact that Qatar supplies Gaza’s Oman, the sultanate abutting the UAE’s south and east. Islamist Hamas government with cash, which plays a role Unlike Saudi Arabia, Oman has openly hosted a series in the Strip’s dealings with Israel. of Israeli leaders over the years – Yitzhak Rabin in 1994, Considering all this, Qatari leaders might feel that mak- Shimon Peres in 1996 and Netanyahu in 2018. Oman had ing peace with Israel at this time might compromise the a secret relationship with Israel even before the Oslo Ac- image they are trying to cultivate of an independent coun- cords, and in the 1990s exchanged trade representatives try that fits into the orbit of no other Arab government. 15

AIR – October 2020 Kuwait’s reluctance, by contrast, stems not from any diplomatic pretension, but from geography. WHERE DO THE Wedged between Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the Persian PALESTINIANS GO FROM Gulf, Kuwait shares a maritime border with Iran, and, by COVER STORIES NAME OF SECTION land, is hardly 40 km. from Iranian soil. In addition, there HERE? are the memories of Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait 30 years ago, a trauma that dilutes Kuwait’s taste for diplomatic by Danielle Pletka adventure. Then again, if its Gulf neighbours all make the move, srael made peace last month with the United Arab Kuwait may be in no position to stay behind, especially Emirates and Bahrain, the most dramatic development given its military dependence on, and diplomatic indebted- I in the Arab-Israeli conflict since Jordan and Israel ended ness to, the US. their war in 1988. Remarkable in and of itself, the agree- Lastly on the Arabian Peninsula is Yemen, whose bloody ment was perhaps even more notable for what it omit- civil war, along with Iran’s meddling in it, preclude it ted. Nowhere in the short text of the so-called Abraham launching any diplomatic move, least of all one as ambi- Accords declaration was the word “Palestine” mentioned, tious as reaching an accommodation with the Jewish state. a sad but in some ways fitting coda to the era of Palestinian However, beyond the Red Sea to Yemen’s west sprawls primacy in the Middle East. Sudan, whose own civil wars have abated. Khartoum’s The shifts that ultimately led both the Emirates and military government is considering joining the Emirati-led Bahrain toward Israel have been long in coming, and the move and has already conceded that it is secretly engaged gallons of ink spilled on the occasion of the rapprochement in a dialogue with Israel. credited the realignment to Iran. To be sure, the Islamic Further west still is Chad, which isn’t a member of the Republic has loomed large in the region for some time, Arab League, but has Arabic as its main language. Chad has and Teheran’s escalating aggression against its neighbours already announced its intention to establish full diplomatic and domination of powerful proxy armies in both the Gulf ties with Israel, and last year hosted Netanyahu on an of- and the Levant have only pushed Iran’s common enemies ficial visit. in the Sunni and Jewish worlds together. But Iran alone Chad appears for now to mark the westernmost ex- did not force this radi- tent of the unfolding Arab-Israeli rapprochement, as the cal rethink of nearly a “Perhaps, as some Maghreb countries to Chad’s north-west for now seem ei- century of Arab policy. observers suggest, the ther unavailable, such as war-torn Libya, or uninterested in The Palestinians them- full peace with Israel, as Morocco and Algeria say they are. new Sunni-Jewish axis selves bear much of the The same goes also for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, all in the Middle East will responsibility. of which are under Iranian influence, albeit in different It has become clichéd serve as a much-needed ways. to echo the late Israeli wake up call to the Pal- Still, if what happened in Washington in September ex- Foreign Minister Abba pands to the rest of the Arabian Peninsula, as well as Sudan estinian people and their Eban (though he was and Chad, the impact will indeed be profound. bankrupt leadership” referring to the Arabs in For one thing, it will make other Muslim-majority general) on the Palestin- countries consider following their example. Most notable ians’ solid track record of “never missing an opportunity among these candidates would be Indonesia, which co- to miss an opportunity.” The misquote well conveys the vertly trades with Israel and also hosted a visit by Rabin in gist of the problem: In 1947, the Palestinians turned their 1993, but has never admitted an Israeli diplomatic mission. backs on the historic United Nations partition plan that Neighbouring Malaysia’s long-standing anti-Israeli viru- might have created two states side by side, distinct Jew- lence might not change even if Saudi Arabia strikes a peace ish and Palestinian homelands (as indeed, the Arabs had with Israel, but Indonesia’s might. rejected previous such recommendations made to the More importantly, a Saudi-led rapprochement would government of the United Kingdom, the mandatory power mean that the traditional Arab diplomatic dictum, that in what was then Palestine). peace with the Palestinians must precede wider Arab peace In the period between the Arab League’s failed war to with Israel, is obsolete. Furthermore, if diplomatic rela- prevent the creation of Israel and Israel’s conquest of east tions with Israel expand as far as Jerusalem hopes they Jerusalem and the West Bank in 1967, Palestinian refugees will, this would mean that, 20 years after Bourguiba’s outside “Palestine” proper and those living on the West death in 2000, countries representing nearly half the Arab Bank and in the Gaza Strip under Jordanian and Egyptian world’s 420 million citizens will have followed his advice sovereignty respectively, never reconsidered their opposi- 16 and recognised the Jewish state. tion to a two-state solution. Neither the Hashemite King- AIR – October 2020 increased by a full decade. Children began to go to school in unprecedented numbers. This improvement was driven by Palestinian work in Israel and rapid integration with the Jewish

state, growing remittances from the Gulf and – NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES it must be said – an improvement in Palestinian lives under Israeli occupation. But that was all to end in 1987 with the first Intifada, the Pales- tinian revolt against Israel.

as the Intifada a poor choice? Certainly, in Wterms of economic progress and prosper- ity. But money and education and longer life are not everything; freedom matters. And then in 1990, another poor choice: The Palestin- The Palestinian struggle has been hampered by poor choices which led to their ians en masse, along with their “leaders” in the cause becoming synonymous with terrorism PLO, supported the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. dom nor Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser considered offering Palestinian workers in the small Gulf nation were uncere- the Palestinian territories they nominally “occupied” to moniously tossed out, resulting in another loss of income create a Palestinian homeland. The whole loaf was always remittances, and most of all, the beginning of the end of the focus, and for too many years, terrorism was the pre- the Arab romance with Palestine. ferred tool to achieve it. Even after the Oslo Accords in 1993, there were more Lost to all but the victims are the Palestinian terrorist poor choices: The importation of the bankrupt exiled Tunis organisations that mushroomed over the years; not sim- leadership of the PLO to run “Palestine,” replete with all ply the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), but the the corruption that is the hallmark of too much Arab gov- Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the ernance. The inability to come to peaceful terms with Is- PFLP-General Command, the Democratic Front for the rael, certainly not the fault of Palestinians alone. The rising Liberation of Palestine, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas and other more fleeting flirtations with politically moti- vated murder. Much as the combatants in Libya and Syria are now backed by competing Arab powers and Iran, these groups too were typically more focused on being sus- WITH COMPLIMENTS tained by their patrons than on making any actual progress towards a state, unitary or otherwise. Together, however, they made the Palestinian cause synonymous with terror. Meanwhile, actual Palestinian refugees continue to live by diktat in squalid refugee camps – to resettle would have scattered them to the diaspora, and the PLO in particu- lar preferred its subjects to live in misery, for maximum political effect. But life in refugee camps in Lebanon and Jordan held no promise for the Palestinian people – par- ticularly after the events of Black September in which the PLO tried (twice) to assassinate the King of Jordan in 1970. In Lebanon, Palestinians were denied equal rights in the national constitution and, over the years, the most capable made their way to more welcoming nations, where they were able to prosper and support what family they were forced to leave behind. T +61 3 9866 3066 In the territories newly occupied by Israel after 1967, F +61 3 9866 2766 the fortunes of Palestinians began to change for the better, Level 14, 10 Queens Road ironically. The West Bank and Gaza economies skyrock- (PO Box 7638 St Kilda Road) eted – becoming the fourth-fastest growing economy in Melbourne Victoria 3004 the world according to the World Bank – improving even as Israel’s economy stagnated in the 1970s. Life expectancy 17

AIR – October 2020 kleptocracy of the Ramallah government that ushered in a What will it take to finally see a two-state solution? brief romance with Iranian-financed Hamas, which, though The answer lies partly with Iran, but mostly with the no longer loved, still governs Gaza. The celebration of the Palestinians themselves. For as long as the Islamic Republic 9/11 attacks. The decision to side with Saddam Hussein in continues to exploit the Palestinian cause in order to per-

COVER STORIES the 1991 Iraq War. The subcontracting to Iran of Palestin- petuate its own effective occupation of Lebanon and Syria, ian “resistance.” The continued monopoly over rule by the there will be domestic and external Palestinian groups that aged and venal Mahmoud Abbas, now in the 15th year of will continue the fight that underscores the problem of a his four-year “democratic” term as Palestinian president. peaceless “peace process.” The Palestinian people and their At the end of the day, the problem is that the Palestin- leaders must repudiate Iran’s utterly fruitless support. ians appear resolutely mired in the 20th century, and those More importantly, they must revisit their path forward. parts of the Arab world that aren’t torn by conflict or ruled Rejectionism has failed. Terrorism has failed. Extortion has by Iran have decided that the “Palestine first” credo no lon- failed. Perhaps the time has come to try good governance, ger serves their own interests or that of the Palestinians. in order to build a Palestine capable of being a partner for Perhaps, as some observers suggest, the new Sunni- peace with Israel. Jewish axis in the Middle East will serve as a much-needed wake up call to the Palestinian people and their bankrupt Danielle Pletka is a senior fellow in foreign and defence policy leadership, and give Arab states new leverage over Israel to studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where she fo- finally solidify a two-state solution. cuses on US foreign policy generally and the Middle East specifi- Certainly, they were able to point to a delayed decision cally. Reprinted from The Dispatch (www.thedispatch.com). © by Israel to extend sovereignty over parts of the West Bank The Dispatch, reprinted by permission, all rights reserved. as a small victory. But there is little evidence that the fate of Palestine is high on the priority list for any of Israel’s new friends, pious protestations to the contrary notwith- standing. Nor is it clear that, even were the Palestinians to gain something that looked like a state, their fortunes ARABS: ISRAEL IS NOT would be any better than they are under partial Israeli OUR ENEMY occupation.

by Khaled Abu Toameh

With Compliments growing number of Arabs, particularly those living A in the Persian Gulf, say they finally understand that Israel is not the enemy of Muslims and Arabs. This change of heart manifested even before the United Arab Emir- ates and Bahrain signed peace agreements with Israel on Sept. 15. It is the direct result of the expansionist ambi- tions of Iran and Turkey in the Arab world and the feeling among Arabs that those two states pose the real threat to their national security. Until recently, it was unimaginable to see Arabs openly admitting that they had been mistaken in their belief that Israel was the enemy of Muslims and Arabs. Now, Arabs seem to have no problem saying that they were wrong all these years in their attitude toward Israel. Ivany Until recently, most Arab writers, journalists and po- litical activists avoided any form of criticism of the Pales- Investment Group tinians. Such criticism was considered taboo in the Arab world. Now, however, one can find in Arab media outlets Level 6, Terrace Tower more criticism of the Palestinians and their leadership than 80 William Street in Western, or even Israeli, media. Sydney NSW 2010 Until recently, for most Arabs, the terms “peace” and Tel: (02) 9358 6366 “normalisation” (with Israel) were associated with ex- ivanyinvest.com.au tremely negative connotations: humiliation, submission, 18 defeat and shame. No longer. Many Arabs are openly

AIR – October 2020 talking about their desire other Arabs are finally gone. for peace with Israel. These “Scaring us with Israel has Arabs are saying that they are become a thing of the past,” looking forward to reaping al-Garni wrote: the fruits of peace with Israel “We are not afraid of NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES and that it is time that Arab Israel. We are not cow- countries prioritise their ards. Dealing with Israel own interests. does not mean that we Of course, none of this love it. It’s one thing to means that the entire Arab love Israel, and another world has changed course Longstanding taboos against urging peaceful relations with Israel thing to have commer- and is ready to recognise have been well and truly broken, at least in the Persian Gulf cial, economic and po- Israel. The voices of the litical relations with it.” Arabs and Muslims who reject any peace treaty with Israel Expressing growing disillusionment in the Arab coun- remain vocal and representative of the sentiments of the tries with the Palestinians, Saudi writer Amal Abdel Aziz majority of the people in Arab and Islamic countries, espe- al-Hazany said that the Palestinians who are now condemn- cially those that have not educated their public for peace. ing the UAE and Bahrain for making peace with Israel were Yet, it is remarkable to see how an increasing number among the first Arabs to normalise their relations with of Arabs are airing their views regarding Israel and the Israel when they signed the 1993 Oslo Accords. Palestinians in the public sphere. Al-Hazany pointed out that Iranian meddling in the in- Importantly, Arabs of the Gulf are openly admitting that ternal affairs of the Palestinians has resulted in the separa- it is Iran, and not Israel, that poses a major threat to peace tion of the West Bank from the Gaza Strip and triggered a and stability in the Middle East. The Gulf Arabs are saying power struggle between the two main Palestinian factions, that Iran and its Palestinian and Lebanese proxies – such as Fatah and Hamas, that continues to this day. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah – are destroying Arab She said that despite Iran’s endorsement of Hamas and countries and dragging them toward more bloodshed, Islamic Jihad, the Arabs continue to support the Palestinian violence and chaos. cause in international forums and remind the international As Saudi writer Mohammed al-Sheikh recently noted: community on every occasion that the Palestinian issue is “For us in the Gulf, Israel is no longer the No. 1 enemy, the Arabs’ first concern. Al-Hazany also noted that funds as it was before the Persian mullahs seized control of Iran continued to flow to the Palestinians, especially from the in 1979 and began exporting their revolution, or before Gulf states: Erdogan assumed the presidency in Turkey and worked to “The Arabs, especially Saudi Arabia, have provided restore the Ottoman occupation of the Arab world.” everything possible in favour of the Palestinian issue, and Al-Sheikh said that the Gulf Arabs are the only ones en- millions of dollars have not stopped flowing to the PLO, titled to assess the dangers and threats surrounding them: without accountability, but with the hope that they would “It is we, not other Arabs, who assess the dangers sur- spend this money to provide a decent life for the Palestin- rounding us and arrange our priorities. The problem ians... Can the Arab countries be blamed today for look- is that most Arabs, including the Palestinians, insist on ing after their interests by establishing open relations with playing the role of guardians over us and on defining for Israel? Times change, everything has changed, except for us our priorities. They continue to argue that the mullahs the Palestinian mood that rejects anything and everything.” of Iran and Erdogan’s Turkey do not pose a threat to us as Emirati political analyst Issa bin Arabi Albuflasah much as Israel does.” Praising the prospect of peace and normalisation with Israel, the Saudi writer pointed out that: “Israel is an advanced and superior country in all fields, and by creating a space for peaceful cooperation with it, we believe that we will benefit from its progress and superiority.” Arabs who are opposed to peace with Israel, al-Sheikh added, “do not care about development and modernisa- tion, and that is why they are at the bottom of countries in terms of modernity and development.” Ahmad al Garni, editor of the Saudi newspaper Sada al Hijaz, said that the days when Arabs used Israel to scare 19

AIR – October 2020 expressed outrage and disgust over the Palestinian leader- the Arab peoples. The Palestinian issue concerns the Arab ship’s recurring insults and attacks on the Gulf states for peoples who want a solution, but the leaders benefit from daring to seek peace with Israel. the status quo. These leaders benefit from the problems “Palestinian leaders are the main cause of the suffering and suffering of their people. There is no solution under NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES of their people,” Albuflasah remarked. "They have achieved corrupt leaderships. The Palestinian leadership is in the nothing for the Palestinians. They only care about power hands of traitors and beneficiaries.” and achieving personal and partisan gains at the expense of Saudi writer Saeed al-Farha al-Ghamdi, in an article pub- the Palestinian issue." lished in the Saudi newspaper al-Madina on Sept. 4, says he Accusing the Palestinians of being ungrateful, the Emi- can’t understand why the Palestinians fail to read reality. rati analyst said: “The Palestinian issue is in retreat and Palestinian “The UAE and the rest of the Gulf states opened their leaders are moving in the opposite direction, as if their doors and institutions to the Palestinians, where they minds have been frozen. The Palestinians have become lost lived as brothers, enjoying everything that the citizen and without a leadership that looks after their interests,” enjoys, and receiving care and attention. The Palestinians al-Ghamdi said, urging the Palestinians to keep a distance are now responding by insulting us and “As Saudi writer Mohammed from Iran, Turkey and Qatar, “which have agendas that seek to exploit the aligning themselves with Iran, Turkey al-Sheikh recently noted: and the Muslim Brotherhood.” [Palestinian] issue.” Saudi writer Mohammed al-Saed ‘For us in the Gulf, Israel is Saudi writer and researcher Fahd also lashed out at the Palestinians and no longer the No. 1 enemy, al-Shkiran advised the Palestinians to accused them of living in “a miserable as it was before the Per- "catch up" with the normalisation film.” sian mullahs seized control agreements between Israel and the UAE Noting that Palestinians have a long and Bahrain. of Iran in 1979 and began history of rejecting peace offers with “The historic agreement will change Israel, he said that the Palestinians did exporting their revolution’” the face of the region,” al-Shkiran not bother to inform their Arab broth- wrote. “It is tantamount to turning the ers of their intention to sign the Oslo Accords: tables on the axis of resistance and its terrorist militias. It “It was excessive selfishness from [former PLO leader is not reasonable for the Palestinian Authority to remain in Yasser] Arafat and his unfortunate negotiating delegation its negative attitude regarding the changes that are sweep- who participated in Oslo. Over 50 years, Egypt, Syria, ing the world.” Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and many Arab coun- Al-Shkiran also advised the Palestinians to hold their tries paid a heavy price and fought several wars on behalf leaders accountable on two levels: of the Palestinians. Yet Arafat did not let them know “The first is political accountability: The reasons and about the negotiations that led to the signing of the Oslo causes of the continued rejection of all realistic deals that Accords.” were offered to them since the beginning of the problem Explaining why Arabs are now moving closer to Israel, until today. Second: Opening the files of corruption. The Saudi writer Fahd al Degaither commented: Palestinian has the right to ask about the billions of dollars “Geopolitically speaking, new enemies of the Arabs have paid by the Gulf states for the Palestinian cause. All that appeared in the region, with new and very dangerous money has disappeared.” ambitions that are declared and different from those of Judging from the comments of many Gulf Arabs, it is Israel. We were told that Israel’s slogan was [to expand] evident that a growing number of Arabs realise that they ‘From the Euphrates to the Nile.’ Iran, however, does not have been misled about Israel for decades – brainwashed hide its expansionist ideological trend, which it is already to believe that Israel was the true enemy of all Arabs. It is practicing through its militias in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. refreshing to see that many Arabs have become aware of Turkey, on the other hand, is seeking to seize new sources the misconceptions and lies they were fed all that time. of energy in Libya and has sights on Africa along the Red The Palestinians, however, are unlikely to see similar Sea. These developments prompted the moderate Arabs changes as long as their leaders continue to inform them, to start reconsidering their previous political positions.” in no uncertain terms, that normalisation and peace with Saudi writer Osama Yamani concurred: Israel constitute the crime of treason. “Our enemy today is Iran and Turkey, who occupy Arab lands in the name of the Palestinian issue. As for the Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning Palestinian Affairs enemy of the Palestinians at home, they are the corrupt journalist based in Jerusalem, is a Shillman Journalism Fellow leaders and traitors who rest in the bosom of Iran. For at Gatestone Institute. Reprinted from Gatestone Institute (www. us, the real issue now is development, peace and justice gatestoneinstitute.org). © Khaled Abu Toameh, reprinted by per- 20 that were stolen from the Arab world and forgotten by mission, all rights reserved.

AIR – October 2020 With Compliments NAME OF SECTION COVER STORIES

MORTIM AUSTRALIA PTY. LTD. 1-7 Wells Road, MORDIALLOC VIC. 3195

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AIR – October 2020 view is “null and void” and the US has no legal standing to The “Snapback” enforce snapback. This all sets up a complex battle not only between the Crisis US and Iran but also between the US and Russia and China COVERNAME OF SECTION STORIES and between the US and Europe. Washington appears Why the stakes extend beyond Iran prepared to use secondary sanctions against countries that violate its understanding of snapback. It has made similar threats about those that violate the arms embargo that the by Seth Frantzman US wanted imposed. From Iran’s point of view, as well as that of Russia and he Trump Administration has sought to re-impose China, the US has walked into a trap. They want to call Tsnapback sanctions on Iran under UN Security its bluff on this and prove that they can do as they please Council Resolution 2231. The decision was announced despite US threats, setting up a crisis in which the US will by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the first hours lose because the US will be shown not to have the interna- of Sept. 20. It marks a month since the US informed tional diplomatic or economic clout it once had. In a sense the UN Security Council of Iran’s non-compliance with they want to push this issue, waving a red flag in front of provisions of the 2015 Iran the Trump Administration, and nuclear deal, also known as the hoping that it charges. They are Joint Comprehensive Plan of gambling on the US stumbling as Action (JCPOA). However, most it tries to take on too many crises countries appear to oppose the at once. US “snapback” and Iran is already They also know the US has manoeuvring to exploit this to an election in November. The undermine the US role in the message from Moscow and other Middle East. states has already become clear: Russia, Turkey, China and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announces new The era of US global hegemony is others will also seek to use this “snapback”-related sanctions over and we live in a multi-polar to their benefit as they also want world now. to reduce the US role in the region and globally. This is a Pompeo has said the US will do what is necessary to unique moment in world history and Iran believes it will be enforce the arms embargo on Iran. The US wants UN a symbolic end to US hegemony, marking an end of 30 years member states to comply. of the US role that began with the Gulf conflict in 1990. This would also supposedly target Iranian enrichment Pompeo says that soon the US will announce a range of of nuclear material, which has increased. Iran has already additional measures to strengthen the enforcement of UN violated various promises on levels of enrichment and sanctions on Iran. This is part of the multi-year “maximum stockpiles. But the UN is reticent to do anything, with the pressure” campaign the US began in 2018. The US sought excuse that there is too much “uncertainty.” to reduce Iran oil exports to almost zero. Iran has shipped gasoline to Venezuela and Syria nonetheless. The US also n reality the whole crisis has shown how weak the sought to keep an arms embargo on Iran. That embargo IJCPOA was in the first place. It virtually guaranteed also appears likely to expire. Iran an end to an arms embargo and sanctions relief and While there is hope by Trump Administration support- enabled it to eventually do whatever it wants. This is ers that the US decision to move forward on snapback will because most of the countries that wanted the deal wanted work, the consensus in Europe, Russia, Iran and elsewhere a legal way to let Iran do what it wanted and to create a appears to be that it will not. Iran’s media has been quick to complex structure such that it would be difficult to go seize on reports of European disagreement with the US to back to sanctions. Iran has called that bluff as well by sim- showcase that it will defeat the US on the issue of sanctions. ply announcing it was breaking limits on enrichment, with Iran’s Press TV says that Josep Borrell, the top EU no consequences. The deal in the end basically gave Iran a foreign policy bureaucrat, disagrees with the US. France, right to develop material to the point of nuclear weapons Germany and the UK also appear to disagree with the US. capability even while ostensibly keeping it from doing so. Iran’s UN mission has sent a letter slamming the US deci- Elliott Abrams, the US Special Representative for Iran, sion as well. Iran argues that the UN Security Council does has indicated that the new American pressure mechanisms not agree with the US position and that Washington has not will target enrichment, the development of new missiles been a party to the Iran deal since 2018 because the US and transfer of missile technology. However, it’s unclear 22 walked away from the JCPOA that May. Iran says the US how the US will prevent this if it comes from Russia or via

AIR – October 2020 A WRESTLER’S DEATH AND A REGIME’S

FUTURE COVER STORIES NAME OF SECTION

by Michael Rubin

arly on the morning of Sept. 12, 2020, Iranian au- Ethorities in Shiraz hanged Navid Afkari, a 27-year- old wrestling champion whom a security court had sentenced to death for allegedly stabbing a man during Iran is deliberately and defiantly showing off ifs new enrichment and unrest two years ago. Few believe there was merit to his missile activities in order to test the new US approach, according to Frantzman conviction. Security forces detained and tortured Afkari, his brothers and hundreds of others for participating in Turkey and other states. the 2018 anti-government protests. Exculpatory evidence Iran, however, is showing off its new enrichment and existed. missile activity. It continues to announce new ranges and While his captors broadcast a forced confession, Afkari precision for drones and missiles. It sent a military satellite was able to smuggle out a recording professing his inno- into orbit. It said on Sept. 14 that it has 1,000 centrifuges cence. Ordinary Iranians at its Fordow facility carrying out enrichment. The only are outraged not only by setback for Iran appears to be a July explosion at its Natanz the brutality of Afkari’s facility, which it thinks was foreign sabotage. execution, but by its Iran wants to test the US approach. The US says Iran is speed. Iranian authorities in breach of the deal. The US has also walked away from killed Afkari before his the deal. Iran is gambling that the UN will stand with family could visit him to Teheran and that in its dispute with Washington it will get say goodbye. Russia, China, Turkey, Europe and other states on its side, Over the course of historically isolating the US. its 41-year existence, Executed wrestler Navid Afkari Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has indicated the Islamic Republic has Russia will no longer obey Western international rules. executed tens of thousands of prisoners and dissidents. Iran wants to accelerate this isolation, and China likely The late Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri revealed wants the same. China has been testing missiles and con- in memoirs smuggled out of the country by his son that, ducting more aggressive flights to challenge the US in the in 1988 alone, his regime executed several thousand Pacific. Russia has also been challenging US B-52 flights prisoners. Amnesty International recorded the names of from Alaska to the Black Sea. Recently, US F-22s inter- at least 2,000 victims, but Iranian dissidents say that when cepted Russian airplanes near Alaska. Meanwhile, Russian peripheral provinces are counted, the number could be an supersonic bombers broke a world record in mid-Septem- order of magnitude higher. ber, flying some 20,000 kilometres in 25 hours. While some diplomats and politicians counselling The message is clear. This isn’t just about the Iran deal outreach to Iran may place hope in the Islamic Republic’s or the snapback. This is about a re-ordering of the world. so-called reformers, a sad irony of Iranian political culture Iranian defiance of the US sanctions, with outside support, is that execution rates are higher under reformist or mod- is meant to be symbolic of a process that has taken place erate administrations than under the so-called hardliners. over the last ten years. While security agencies (rather than elected leaders) gov- The significance of the Iran crisis is that the US “new ern death squads and the penal system, Western officials world order,” put in place after the Gulf War 30 years ago tend to let their guard down and relieve pressure when by US President George H.W. Bush, has now eroded to the trying to engage with their Iranian counterparts. Many extent that it may be over. Iran hopes that the US gamble of those killed have just become statistics given the sheer on snapback will be the final throw, the denouement that scale of Iranian human rights abuse, but Afkari’s murder ends the US role in the Middle East. may haunt the regime more than most. The two most popular sports in Iran are wrestling and Seth J. Frantzman is oped editor and Middle East affairs analyst soccer. Both are widely followed across society but a class at the Jerusalem Post. © Jerusalem Post (jpost.com), reprinted difference exists: Soccer is favoured by the educated and by permission, all rights reserved. the elite, while wrestling is embraced more by the working 23

AIR – October 2020 class. Like all reactionary revolutionary regimes, the Is- Within Europe and the United States, on college cam- lamic Republic dismisses those with a more internationalist puses and in newsrooms and foreign ministries, academics, outlook but bases its claims to legitimacy on the support of journalists and diplomats have embraced the idea that its the poor and the working class. critics fundamentally misunderstood Iran. They believed

COVERNAME OF SECTION STORIES Indeed, from the Islamic Revolution to the present day, that reformers were both sincere and able to effect change. Iran’s revolutionary authorities have infused their rhetoric Afkari’s execution should put that notion to rest. with calls for social justice and addressing the have-nots The regime response to the 2018 protests showed its and working class within society. Afkari’s execution sug- fear of reform and accountability. Its execution of Afkari, gests, however, that the regime has abandoned the effort meanwhile, shows it fears the Iranian people and any living to win the hearts and minds of its core constituency, and heroes around which they might rally. instead believes it must rely on brute force. As Khamenei ages and transition looms, the Iranian On an international level, Afkari’s death will also have regime rightly assumes that the next generation of Iranian ramifications: International anti-Israel animus may have leaders may arise from Iran’s prisons, much as they once undercut past pressure on the International Olympic Com- did when transitions came to Chile, Czechoslovakia, India mittee and other sporting bodies to investigate or punish and South Africa. Khamenei may believe killing Afkari will Iran for ordering its sportsmen to forfeit matches against intimidate those willing to take to the streets, but it instead athletes from the Jewish state. But executing a star athlete shows just how weak, fearful, detached and dismissive on such flimsy grounds is harder to ignore and may lead to Iran’s leaders have become. Iran’s ban from international forums once the coronavirus Afkari may be gone, but historians may look at his ex- pause is over. ecution as the day Khamenei ended the Iranian and West- Many diplomats, dignitaries and athletes also had asked ern hope for internal reform and instead signed the death Iran to put aside its death sentence, only to be ignored. warrant for the Islamic Republic. Here, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s disdain for these entreaties is reminiscent of the case of Farzad Bazoft. Dr. Michael Rubin is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Bazoft was a 31-year-old Iranian-British journalist Institute, where he specialises in Iran, Turkey, and the broader whose work had appeared on the BBC and in London’s Middle East. Reprinted from the National Interest online (www. Observer. Arrested in September 1989 at a time when many nationalinterest.org). © National Interest, reprinted by permis- Western diplomats continued to court Iraqi President sion, all rights reserved. Saddam Hussein as a moderate, Iraqi authorities subjected Bazoft to a show trial and sentenced him to death. Pleas poured into Baghdad to spare Bazoft, but Sad- dam ignored them all. The Iraqi leader refused to even take phone calls from British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd. US CONSPIRACY On March 15, 1990, Iraqi authorities executed Bazoft. To add insult to injury, the Iraqi government shipped Bazoft’s NETWORK COMES DOWN body back to Heathrow Airport with a terse statement, “Mrs. Thatcher wanted him. We’ve sent him in a box.” It UNDER was only then that the media, which had generally treated the Iraqi regime with kid gloves, definitively turned. U.S. by Naomi Levin News and World Report, for example, branded Saddam “The Most Dangerous Man in the World.” ou could be forgiven for thinking the recent anti- Ylockdown protests in Australia were organised and attended by a tiny group of disparate individuals – mostly With compliments from cranks – who brazenly ignore official health advice. In part, you would be right. But you might not be aware that those instrumental in leading Melbourne’s dem- onstrations are, in some cases, tied up with the US-based conspiracy movement QAnon, as a dive into the darker recesses of social media has shown. QAnon is an online movement that surfaced in the Ian Levi United States in 2017, but has since infiltrated other coun- tries, including Australia. It is based on cryptic messages www.leviconsulting.com.au distributed by an anonymous source who is apparently 24 a senior US official – known as Q – on the fringe social

AIR – October 2020 Researcher Dr. Kaz Ross from the University of Tasmania has found that One Nation politicians have raised conspiracy theories that may have led Australians

down the QAnon “rabbit hole” – the com- NAME OF SECTION mon term used to describe those who start believing QAnon-spread nonsense. AIJAC is not suggesting that the One Nations senators are themselves involved in or sup- porters of QAnon. Dr Ross, a humanities lecturer, has pointed to One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts’ repeated support in Parliament for the baseless Agenda 21 conspiracy theory, starting from his Sept. 2016 first speech, as one factor that has pushed his A QAnon presence at a Trump campaign rally in the US Australian supporters down the QAnon rabbit hole. media platform 8kun (previously known as 8chan). It is Agenda 21 was a non-binding sustainability plan ostensibly a far-right movement, but attracts anti-establish- adopted by UN members in 1992, but Dr. Ross explains ment types on the far-left as well. It also has a strong vein that: “The belief that ‘Agenda 21’ is a blueprint for corrupt of antisemitism. global governance has become a core tenet of QAnon in QAnon followers are united by a scepticism of the Australia.” “deep state”, which they see as a corrupt cabal of global One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, in attempting to elites who run the world. Those “elites”, according to move an “All Lives Matter” motion in the Senate earlier QAnon followers, include Microsoft founder Bill Gates; this year, also may have succeeded in dragging Australians financier and philanthropist George Soros; and Hollywood into the QAnon net, according to Dr Ross. celebrities ranging from disgraced, now deceased, pro- The “All Lives Matter” slogan – used in opposition to ducer Jeffrey Epstein to talk show host Ellen Degeneres. In the Black Lives Matter movement – has been co-opted by addition to the allegations about having far-right movements as a rallying cry undue control over world affairs, QA- “It is the pandemic that has and mantra of racists. non followers also accuse many of the really boosted the popularity “It sickened me to see people hold- same people of involvement in a global of QAnon in Australia” ing up signs saying ‘Black Lives Matter’ paedophilia ring. According to QAnon, in memory of this American crimi- US President Donald Trump will bring nal [George Floyd]. I’m sorry but all this global elitist cabal to justice. lives matter,” Senator Hanson told the Senate in June. She While this is the central theme of QAnon, there are went on to proclaim that more white people die in police thousands of threads tying it to other conspiracy theories, custody in Australia than black people, while neglecting to from opposition to immunisation, to convoluted ideas mention that only 3.3% of Australia’s population is Ab- about the “real reasons” behind coronavirus lockdown original, and that the Aboriginal population is significantly measures – or the “plandemic”, as QAnon followers call it. over-represented in deaths in custody figures. Deakin University academics Joshua Roose and Lydia t is the pandemic that has really boosted the popular- Khalil agree that anger over restrictions put in place in Iity of QAnon in Australia. Australians who are unhappy response to the coronavirus has driven some Australians with lockdown measures are using social media to discuss towards extremist movements. They write that “the pan- and debate the “clues” dropped by Q in an attempt to demic has also given rise a prolonged period of collective discover the “truth”. stress and trauma which has made more people susceptible QAnon is not a membership movement so it is im- to disinformation, conspiracies, and extremist narratives.” possible to know how many followers it has. While it is Public trust in traditional institutions – like govern- predominantly US-based, Canadian academic Marc-Andre ment, organised religion and mainstream media – was Argentino has estimated Australia is in the top five coun- already low before the pandemic, and this created space tries for QAnon activity. But how has QAnon – a conspir- for alternate messages to be amplified, they noted. acy theory movement so embedded in American politics ASIO, Australia’s internal intelligence agency, also says – gained traction in Australia? that far-right extremist movements have blossomed locally 25

AIR – October 2020 during the pandemic. port QAnon. She has published videos calling Q “a patriot” “COVID-19 restrictions are being exploited by extreme and “something worth listening to and paying attention right-wing narratives that paint the state as oppressive, and to.” US President Trump has spruiked Greene’s candidacy, globalisation and democracy as flawed and failing,” a media calling her a future Republican star who is “strong on

NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE statement from ASIO said. everything”. “We assess the COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced an American media reports suggest that other Repub- extreme right-wing belief in the inevitability of societal lican candidates have expressed an openness to QAnon collapse and a ‘race war’.” theories. However, there are also Republicans who have The ASIO statement explained denounced QAnon, including that the risk of violence associated former Florida governor Jeb Bush, with Islamist terrorism remains a the brother of former Republican bigger threat in Australia, but said president George W Bush, and Liz that “extreme right-wing groups Cheney, high ranking Republican and individuals represent a seri- Representative for Wyoming and ous, increasing and evolving threat daughter of former Republican to [Australia’s] security.” vice president Dick Cheney. While the clues dropped by he ideas raised by the One Na- Q – the supposed messenger of Ttion senators – Agenda 21 and the QAnon movement – do not All Lives Matter – are not only espouse violence, the FBI has iden- fringe, but they both have racist tified QAnon as “very likely” to links or connotations. In the case “motivate some domestic extrem- of Agenda 21, explicit antisemi- ists, wholly or in part, to commit tism has often been a key part of criminal and sometimes violent those connotations. activity.” There has been much research A 2019 FBI intelligence bulle- One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts bringing up the done on the links between coro- “Agenda 21” conspiracy theory in his first speech in tin said: “The FBI further assesses navirus conspiracy theories and 2016 (top); QAnon-linked US Republican candidate in some cases these conspiracy antisemitism. Marjorie Taylor Greene (bottom) theories very likely encourage the As Dr Ross wrote of Senator targeting of specific people, places Roberts’ Agenda 21 Senate speeches: “Any talk of ‘global and organisations, thereby increasing the likelihood of bankers and cabals’ directly taps into longstanding anti- violence against these targets.” semitic conspiracies about supposed Jewish world domi- A number of prominent US terrorism incidents have nation often centred on the figure of billionaire George already been linked to extreme-right movements, QAnon Soros. The pandemic and QAnon have also proven to be included. Amongst the most well-known was the deadly fertile ground for neo-Nazis in Australia.” shooting at the Chabad of Poway synagogue in California in Canadian researcher Argentino also observed a “fair 2018. amount of antisemitism” on Australian QAnon notice In Australia, there are currently no far-right groups on boards. the Commonwealth Government’s terrorist list. Shadow In the United States, antisemitic QAnon supporters Home Affairs Minister Senator Kristina Kenneally has have allegedly made online death threats against Jewish called for a review of the criteria by which Australia California State Senator Scott Wiener, a Democrat. In Au- proscribes terrorist groups, to allow the country to better gust, Wiener told media that at least a quarter of the social sanction far-right groups. media hate mail he received was antisemitic in nature. He “The Australian government and all federal parliamen- attributed much of this to QAnon supporters. tarians must now take the terrorist threat of right-wing “It’s very disheartening that this is what the country has extremism seriously and respond,” Senator Kenneally come to, that we have this cult, QAnon, that is gradually said. “The Morrison government could begin this work by taking over the Republican Party,” he said. referring Australia’s terrorist listing criteria to the Parlia- The abuse has not come from Republican party figures, mentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security for Wiener told JTA, but “their party is unfortunately being review.” more and more influenced by QAnon.” According to media reports, the Australian Govern- Marjorie Taylor Greene, a US House of Representatives ment has not accepted Senator Kenneally’s request at this candidate for the November election in the 14th district of stage. 26 Georgia, is the first Republican candidate to openly sup- Another front from which to contain extremist move-

AIR – October 2020 ments like QAnon is social media. QAnon followers congregate on social media platforms, including Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, but also less popular platforms. In August, Facebook announced it had removed 790 groups and 100 pages from its platform, blocked 300 NAME OF SECTION BIBLIO FILE QAnon-related hashtags, and suspended more than 10,000 Instagram accounts. Twitter also suspended 150,000 QAnon-related accounts that violated the platform’s poli- cies. This is just the tip of the iceberg though. AIJAC had no difficulty in finding QAnon material still available on all social media platforms. So what can be done about QAnon’s encroachment into Hizb ut-Tahrir Australia leader Ismail Al-Wahwah Australia? Given many researchers see much of QAnon’s local success as tied to the pandemic, as lockdowns ease HT Australia actively spreads conspiracy theories and governments establish “COVID normal” practices in popular in the Arab world to its Australian followers via their communities, the natural attraction of QAnon and social media. Many of these theories are anti-Israel and similar movements may diminish. antisemitic. Al-Wahwah told his followers, for example, However, Roose and Khalil suggest that leaders, includ- that Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, killed by the US ing religious leaders, need to speak out against the growth in January, was really an American agent. As reported by of belief in extremist narratives like that of QAnon: “If the Ahron Shapiro (AIR, September 2020), Al-Wahwah was acceleration of violent extremism is not addressed dur- quick to insist that the possibility that Israel was behind the ing these times of crisis, it will allow extremism and the Beirut port explosion was “a strong one”. distrust of government and mainstream religion to incu- Al-Wahwah is notorious for openly calling for Israel’s bate and spread. This will make recovering and maintain- destruction and championing antisemitic tropes, including ing political legitimacy and trust in institutions in the long Holocaust denial. In January of this year he said the Jews term all the more difficult.” “exaggerate, blow out of proportion, lie about, and milk [the West] over [the Holocaust] in order to accomplish their goals” and spoke of how the “occupying Jews… ex- ploit this issue [the Holocaust] in order to humiliate human THE HATEFUL RHETORIC beings.” In Dec 2017, following the decision by the US to move OF HIZB UT-TAHRIR its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem, Al-Wahwah threatened: “The very knife with which you [US president Donald AUSTRALIA Trump and Israel] cut Palestine is a criminal, infidel, hypo- critical knife, and it will be turned against you and will by Ran Porat cut your bodies and behead you. This knife will sever your heads from your bodies, just like you severed East Jerusa- izb ut-Tahrir (HT, Arabic for “the party for libera- lem from West Jerusalem … the day will come when you Htion”) is a pan-Islamic fundamentalist movement with [the Jews] will cry blood.” branches in different countries, including a few hundred He also insisted that Palestine will only be won back followers in Australia. Mostly banned in the Middle East, the movement calls for the re-establishment of a global Muslim Caliphate based on Islamic religious law (Sharia), while rejecting the integration of Muslims into non-Mus- lim societies. Ismai’l Al-Wahwah (aka Abu Anas) is the leader of HT Australia. He is a Palestinian born in the West Bank in 1957, and (according to his own testimony) was forbid- den to go back to his hometown after moving to Jordan in 1975 and later to Germany. Al-Wahwah was arrested in the UK a few years ago and was later incarcerated for several years in Jordan for subversive activities. In the past, Al-Wahwah has refused to condemn the ter- rorist Islamic State organisation. 27

AIR – October 2020 through jihad and war against the “Zionist entity”. entity is cancer. And cancer, you have to get rid of it! As The Executive Council of Australian Jewry and the long as there is cancer in the body, there is a big problem. NSW Jewish Board of Deputies have referred his speech And Ummat al-Islam [the Islamic nation] will never ac- to NSW police for investigation under that state’s racial cept this cancer.”

BIBLIO FILE NAME OF SECTION incitement laws. Al-Wahwah then fancifully describes what would hap- In response, HT Australia issued a statement in Sep- pen when Israel is wiped off the map – all the Jews there tember proudly proclaiming that the movement “exists will ethnically cleanse themselves from the land and go at the forefront of efforts to rid Palestine and all Islamic back to their “real” home countries: “And this state [Israel], lands from the scourge of foreign occupation … The Jew- they call it state, by God it is so weak that every one of ish entity is an occupying force, and the Ummah [nation them has his second passport... And they are waiting for of Islam] will not rest until every part of the occupation is the Ummah to stand up, and carry the war, carry the Jihad reversed from the Islamic holy lands.” against them – [then] they will all run away, they will all Al-Wahwah himself gave an impassioned speech in go back to where they came from, from Paris, London, which he called Israel (not for the first time) “a cancer” and Warsaw, Moscow – everywhere.” “an evil rapist occupation.” The victory over Israel, predicts Al-Wahwah, will be swift and decisive: “The Ummah is thinking how can we ISRAEL IS A “CANCER” THAT WILL BE bring Salah al-Din [the Muslim leader who conquered ELIMINATED WITHIN DAYS Jerusalem in the 12th century] back, how can we free the The peace deal between Israel and the United Arab land, how can we carry the Jihad… By God, it will not Emirates, announced in mid-August, triggered Al-Wahwah take us one week, two weeks, if sincere people come out to unleash more conspiracy theories and extremism. from Syria, from Egypt, from Jordan, from Turkey, from He discussed the topic in a video titled “The UAE- Iraq – Wallahi [by God] it will not take us two weeks to ‘Israel’ deal – Betrayal of occupied Palestine”, posted on free the land of Filastin [Palestine]! So easy!” social media on Aug 19. Al-Wahwah concludes his poisonous vision with Al-Wahwah started his speech with a harsh attack on another denial of the right of the Jewish state to exist, the Gulf states forging ties with “the evil state of Israel”. claiming that Israel “is not even a true state…From the He presented a warped and bread until the airplane [and] the rockets, they take it from “Al-Wahwah reveals antisemitic version of his- the West. They are not a true land, not a true state. They what he really thinks tory that is typical of Middle try to tell us – we are strong. What can you do with your of Jews: ‘The Jews, Eastern radicals, claiming weapons if millions of the Ummah moves towards Filastin you know, they tried that Israel was maliciously [Palestine]? What can you do with your weapons? How can to be very rude. They planted in the heart of the that help you? Zero!” Muslim world by foreign are very rude.’” powers: “Strategically, when JEWS ARE LIARS AND RUDE the West – France, Britain Arab rulers that forge closer ties with Israel are “slaves” – has established the Jewish to the US, according to Al-Wahwah, and their fate will be entity after WWI, they knew from day one – this entity bleak: “we will put all of them in the same basket as the cannot survive, stay in the region, unless people in the Jewish entity, the occupier … and the Ummah will deal region can accept it. The people in the region are Muslims, with them [in a] similar [way] and the Ummah will get rid we are Muslims. Naturally, we have rejected, we are reject- of all of them!” ing, and we will keep rejecting the existence of the Jewish Al-Wahwah’s antisemitic views resurfaced when he entity. There is no Muslim in Earth, a true Muslim, who said that the 1993-1995 Oslo peace agreements promised will accept the existence of this entity. It clashes … with the Palestinians statehood in five years and they still did your din [religion], with your belief, with your Qur’an, not have it 20 years later, and “if the Jews speak about 20 your history. It clashes with everything!” years, it would be maybe 200 years! …That’s the Jewish Al-Wahwah has no doubt that the conflict will end with attitude.” the destruction of the “cancer” which is the Jewish state: Talking about the alleged commitment made by Israeli “The story of the struggle over Filastin [Palestine] has one Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to the UAE leaders answer – it is ours or theirs. It cannot be between us and to freeze plans to extend sovereignty to parts of the West them.… compromise or… two state solution – that’s all Bank, Al-Wahwah reveals what he really thinks of Jews: lying.” “The Jews, you know, they tried to be very rude. They are “The Jewish entity, wa-Allah [by God, even] if the whole very rude.” world gives them acceptance, and support them, they will Almost a decade ago, AIJAC was among the first to call 28 never be able to stay in the region. It’s a cancer, the Jewish on the Australian Government to examine whether Hizb

AIR – October 2020 ut-Tahrir merits legal prohibition in Australia, given the not change Indonesia’s support for the Palestinians and that group’s engagement in violence and terrorism overseas, for Jakarta, “the settlement of the Palestinian issue needs and continued incitement to political violence everywhere. to respect the relevant United Nations Security Council The long string of antisemitic statements and incite- resolutions and internationally agreed parameters, includ- ment by the leaders of this movement’s Australian branch ing a two-state solution.” NAME OF SECTION BILIO FILE should now trigger additional scrutiny by local law en- Indonesia’s economic ties to the UAE appear to offer forcement agencies and, hopefully, action against this intriguing food for thought when understanding Indone- dangerous organisation. sia’s hesitancy; less can be said about its its economic rela- tions with Bahrain. In recent years, Indonesia’s ties with Dr. Ran Porat is a research associate at the Australian Centre for the UAE have expanded significantly. Jewish Civilisation at Monash University, a research fellow at the In January 2020, Indonesian President Joko Widodo International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisci- (Jokowi) visited Abu Dhabi. During his visit, both coun- plinary Centre in Herzliya and a research associate at the Future Directions International Research Institute, Western Australia.

INDONESIA’S CAREFUL RESPONSE TO THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS

Indonesian President Joko Widodo with UAE Crown Prince Moham- by Giora Eliraz med bin Zayed during a visit to the UAE in January

n Sept. 15, Israel and the United Arab Emirates tries signed business deals worth a reported US$23 billion O(UAE) signed a peace treaty at a White House cer- involving considerable investment in the energy sector emony, after announcing an agreement to normalise and infrastructure projects. These were described in media relations about a month earlier. At the same ceremony, reports as an important achievement for both the UAE, Israel also signed a peace declaration with Bahrain, which which is pursuing its “Look East” policy to increase its had chosen to follow in the UAE’s footsteps. This diplo- share in global trade, and for the Jokowi Administration, matic breakthrough, brokered by the US, was viewed as which is looking to boost Indonesia’s economic growth. a considerable blow by the Palestinian leadership, erod- Moreover, the UAE has also joined other international ing the pan-Arab position that stipulated normalising players in helping to fund the flagship project of Jokowi’s relations between Israel and Arab countries would only Administration, a plan to relocate the capital city from follow Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories and Jakarta to a yet-to-be-built city in the province of East Ka- the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. limantan on the island of Borneo. The construction of this Thus, the Palestinian leadership strongly denounced the multi-billion dollar project is planned to start next year, agreements between Israel and the two Arab Gulf states, with 2024 set as the target date for beginning the process dubbing them a “stab in the back” and a “betrayal”. of moving to this new capital. Indeed, Sheikh Moham- Therefore, one may wonder why Indonesia, which med bin Zayed (MbZ), Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince and the usually clearly expresses its objections when it perceives UAE’s de facto leader, has even agreed to lead the new there is damage being done to the Palestinian cause, in this capital’s steering committee. case appears to have waited some time before issuing any Moreover, UAE investments have assumed even greater response – and then only a highly cautious one. importance during the coronavirus crisis. On Sept. 18, a spokesperson for Indonesia’s Foreign In addition, both countries, as well as Bahrain, share Ministry, Teuku Faizasyah, told reporters: “We understand common interests in promoting moderate Islamic values in the intention of the UAE and Bahrain to provide space for order to counter the growth of religious extremism, which the relevant parties to negotiate and change the approach is viewed as a threat by all three countries. What’s more, to solving the Palestinian issue through this agreement. the Indonesian president and MbZ have reportedly forged However, the effectiveness of the agreement depends to a a firm friendship. large extent on Israel’s commitment to respect it.” At the Nevertheless, the dilemmas Jakarta faces regarding the same time he made it clear that these agreements would agreements between Israel and the two Arab Gulf states 29

AIR – October 2020 appear to be acute. Though located far away from the of Jakarta, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (known as Ahok), ac- Middle East, Indonesia has, for many years, displayed a cusing him of insulting Islam. strong commitment to the Palestinian cause in the interna- Presumably, the authorities in Jakarta are currently very tional arena. attentive to a certain scathing criticism of the announce-

NAME OF SECTION CINE FILE Furthermore, the Palestinian cause and claims about “oc- ment of the agreement between the UAE and Israel in cupied Palestinian territory” strongly touch some “collective some Indonesian circles, and the denunciation of the deal nerves” in Indonesia, on both national and Islamic levels. by the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI), the country’s Indonesian support for the Palestinian people is top clerical authority. Certainly a warning from Nahdlatul strongly tied to long-standing national commitments to de- Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Muslim organisation and colonisation and anti-colonialist sentiments, which can be a key civil society partner of the Government, that this traced back to both the Indonesian War of Independence agreement could trigger terror attacks, would have been against the Dutch (1945–1949), and Jakarta’s role in the listened to carefully by the Jokowi Administration. creation of the Non-Aligned Movement in the 1950s. The Yet there are other voices urging caution and spirit of anti-colonialism is even mentioned in the pream- discretion. ble to the constitution. A recent editorial in the Jakarta Post ends by saying: Thus, for example, Indonesian opposition to Israeli “Diplomacy has always been about finding the right bal- plans to extend sovereignty to parts of the West Bank (now ance among competing interests and the challenge now for shelved) have been framed in terms of ideological opposi- Indonesia is how to balance its interest in finding partners tion to any form of colonialism. to help it create growth and prosperity while at the same Indonesian support of the Palestinians time fighting for basic human rights for is thus commonly phrased in terms such the Palestinian people.” as justice, legitimate rights and freedom. Likewise, senior Indonesia academic In addition, the struggle of the and international law scholar Professor Palestinians strongly touches feelings Hikmahanto Juwana was cited soon after of Islamic solidarity within the huge the signing ceremony in Washington Muslim population in Indonesia. In fact, saying, among other things, “it would the Palestinian struggle is largely per- be better for Indonesia not to take a ceived as an Islamic one. Perceptions and No Indonesian government can ignore position...on the normalising relations feelings within the Muslim majority have the strong pro-Palestinian sentiment between these three countries because amongst the Indonesian public or the a strong impact on Indonesian foreign possibility of street protests it is still unclear whether this is the will policy, which has always been signifi- of the people”. And another scholar, cantly determined by domestic political considerations. Yon Machmudi, argued that it was becoming increasingly And there is another significant issue – Indonesia’s difficult for Indonesia to support the Palestinian cause, on ability, as a democracy, to revisit the state’s decades-old account of its good relations with the UAE, Bahrain and position on the Palestinian issue is potentially very politi- other Gulf countries, while adding: “Of course, there’s a cally fraught, since any such change is likely to invoke deep commitment not to interfere in the affairs of other coun- emotions within the Muslim majority. tries that have normalized [ties with Israel], but Indonesia Indonesia of the post-1998 democratic era no longer will still gently remind them not to forget the plight of the has the severe restrictions on freedom of expression that Palestinians.” were enforced during the previous authoritarian era. This Jakarta’s delayed and careful response to the UAE normali- means the Government does not control public opinion; sation – designed to hopefully upset no one – suggests that rather, it has to attempt to navigate carefully through it. such messages and views have also not been ignored in the Therefore, any move that might be interpreted publicly corridors of power in Jakarta. The statement appears to have as an erosion in the state commitment to the Palestinian been driven by a need to carefully balance between domestic cause is likely to meet an immediate backlash from opposi- political considerations relating to political stability, decades- tion political actors, and more seriously, by radical Islamic old commitments to the Palestinian cause and sustaining groups which have already proven their ability to incite strong interest in cooperation with the Arab Gulf countries as mass unrest on the street. part of a national vision for economic growth. Certainly, the stormy events in Jakarta of late 2016 and early 2017 are deeply burned in the collective memory. Dr. Giora Eliraz is a Research Associate at the Harry S. Truman That is the period in which zealous Islamist groups led Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University in massive protests, with marked religious and sectarian over- Jerusalem; a Research Associate at the Forum for Regional Think- tones, to topple a very strong political ally of President ing (FORTH): and a Research Fellow at the Institute for Counter- 30 Jokowi at the time, the ethnic Chinese Christian Governor Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya.

AIR – October 2020 religious observance or ethnicity, was left unaffected. Mind-numbing terrorism made it ESSAY scary to ride a bus, nerve-wracking to

send kids to school, a psychological ESSAYNAME OF SECTION effort to take the family downtown for a falafel. Terror Wave that And the trauma of that period remains. Reshaped the Nation To understand Israel today – to understand its political turn to the Right, why Israelis have voted time 20 years since the Second Intifada and time again for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, its complete lack of confidence in the Palestin- by Herb Keinon ians, its indifference to the lack of a diplomatic process with the Palestin- ians – is to understand the strain and he place names still send shivers the main front in that war. pressure that everyone in the country Tup and down the spine. More Israelis were killed during laboured under during the four years The police station in Ramallah; the Second Intifada – 1,053, accord- and five months of that intifada. Jerusalem’s Gilo neighbourhood; the ing to Foreign Ministry figures – than Israelis were well acquainted with Dolphinarium discotheque in security challenges before Tel Aviv; the Sbarro Pizzeria September 2000. But for the and Cafe Moment in the capi- most part there was a strong tal; the Park Hotel in Netanya; sense of personal security in Maxim Restaurant in Haifa. the cities up until then. Sure, The names bring to mind you didn’t want to walk along some of the bloodiest atroci- the borders or traipse around ties committed by Palestinian in the West Bank cities or even terrorists during the Second part of east Jerusalem, but Intifada that began 20 years there was a sense of being safe ago, on Sept. 28, 2000. at home, in the streets, in the Each of Israel’s wars have cinema, at restaurants. had their memorable battles. The Intifada saw 130 suicide bombings, including dozens of The Second Intifada There was Operation Nach- bloody attacks on buses changed all that. Then no place shon in the War of Independence; the were killed in the 1956 Sinai Cam- seemed safe: riding the bus felt like Battle for Sharm e-Sheikh in the Sinai paign (231), the 1967 Six Day War a dice roll, coffee shops a potential Campaign; Ammunition Hill in the (776) or the 2006 Second Lebanon deathtrap. Six Day War; Chinese Farm during the War (164). More civilians, about 70% A reservist wearing a flak jacket Yom Kippur War; the Battle of Jezzine of the total fatalities, were killed in and carrying an M16 serving in a in the First Lebanon War. the Second Intifada than in any cam- small outpost just across the Syrian But while during the Second paign with the exception of the War of border fence on the Golan Heights Intifada the Battle of Jenin during Independence. in March 2002 – the deadliest month Operation Defensive Shield, the inti- The Second Intifada, which for the of the Intifada – felt more secure in fada’s turning point, has been seared average citizen felt very much like a his well-guarded base ringed by tanks into the country’s memory, for the war in everything but name, was a than his elementary school children most part it is the names of eateries, defining event in Israel’s history, akin felt riding public buses to school in road junctions or markets – Mike’s to the War of Independence and the Jerusalem. Place, Megiddo Junction, the Carmel Six Day and Yom Kippur wars. And everyone, literally everyone, Market – that are associated with this This harrowing period fundamen- knew someone either killed or in- period. Because it was the restaurants, tally altered Israeli society because it jured during the violence – a relative, bars, buses and road junctions in the impacted everyone. No one, regard- friend, co-worker, schoolmate, client, heart of the country that constituted less of their political opinions, level of business partner. 31

AIR – October 2020 This reality of intense insecurity partner when he came back from the seeped into everyone’s lives and left failed Camp David summit in July an indelible impact. 2000 and said the refusal of the Pal- estinians to accept his generous offer

ESSAY ne of the ways to gauge that was proof there was no one to talk to Oimpact is to look at the country’s on the other side. political map. Israel goes to elections “Israelis still support the idea of quite a bit. Since 1999, the year be- peace – we all allegedly support peace Meir Elron: The Intifada “left emotional and fore the Second Intifada, it has held cognitive scars” – but they don’t see it as a feasible 10 elections, including an election political goal anymore, and put most of just for the prime minister – not the Temple Mount and the Palestinians the blame on the other side,” she said. Knesset – in 2001. responded with riots that swiftly Elran took this even further and The results: The Left won one spread, to September 2004, when said that not only do Israelis not election, Ehud Barak in 1999. The the number of terrorist attacks began believe there is a partner on the other Centre won one, 2006 with Kadima to decline. Others, however, extend side, but because of the Intifada “the headed by Ehud Olmert, and tied the Intifada’s duration another five Israeli public doesn’t want to hear another, Blue and White’s showing in months until February 2005, after Yas- about the Palestinians.” September 2019. The Right won six ser Arafat’s death, when Sharon – then “The violence led Israelis to place times, and battled to a draw in one prime minister – met new Palestinian an ‘X’ on the Palestinians,” he said. (March 2020). Authority President Mahmoud Abbas “And there are two factors now rein- Why? Did the country all of a sud- at a summit at Sharm el-Sheikh. forcing that ‘X’ – one is the behaviour den grow callous? Did it give up on Regardless, this was a long war. of Hamas in Gaza, which always re- a dream of peace? No, coming out of Not only was it long, it was harsh – minds Israelis of what they are dealing the Oslo euphoria of the 1990s, Israel with more than 130 suicide bombings. with, and the second is the leadership was simply mugged by the reality of “It is an event that left emotional in Ramallah, whose behaviour only the Second Intifada. and cognitive scars,” Elran said. reinforces the feeling that there is no “The voting patterns show that The Intifada, Elran said, disabused one to talk to.” the right wing not only many Israelis of a belief Hermann said that another signifi- now has a majority, “Coming out of the in being able to reach cant element of the Intifada is that the but has even gotten Oslo euphoria of the any agreement with the Israeli public credits Israel’s security stronger, and this is a 1990s, Israel was Palestinians and created apparatus for ending it. result of the scope and “It appears that the Israeli Jews, simply mugged by a sense in the minds of intensity of the Inti- millions that there was when they think about the Second fada,” said Meir Elran, the reality of the simply no one on the Intifada, think that the Israeli secu- a researcher at the Second Intifada” other side to talk to. rity agencies are responsible – in a Institute for National Tamar Hermann, positive way – for the sharp decline Security Studies in Tel Aviv who has director of the Guttman Centre for in the terrorism, and that they acted written extensively on Israeli national Public Opinion and Policy Research at very effectively against it. They do not resilience during and after the Inti- the Israel Democracy Institute and a attribute the decline of the Intifada to fada. “This was mainly terror against political science professor at the Open any decision by the other side to stop civilians. And unlike the First Intifada, University, agrees with Elran and said using terror, or to minimise the use of which took place mainly in the ter- the now deeply held belief among terror.” ritories, this took place for the most many Israelis that there is simply no part inside the Green Line – it was partner on the other side is one of the ormer national security adviser extremely traumatic.” most significant lasting impacts. FYaakov Amidror contrasted the One of the reasons it was so trau- “It is quite obvious that the Second lesson Israel learned from the First matic, said Elran, who was deputy Intifada made even those Jewish Intifada, which led to some 177 director of Military Intelligence dur- Israelis most supportive of the peace Israelis being killed, and the Second ing the beginning of the First Intifada process rethink not their perspective Intifada. that began in 1987, was its intensity on the desirability of peace, but rather “The First Intifada did one thing and duration. on its feasibility,” she said. clearly: it made clear to the Israelis Elran dates the Second Intifada Paradoxically, Hermann added, it that there are no free lunches, and from Sept. 28, 2000, when opposi- was Ehud Barak who pumped up the that there is a price to holding on to 32 tion leader Ariel Sharon went to the notion of there being no Palestinian the territories,” he said.

AIR – October 2020 And the main lesson for Israelis research division. outbreak of the Intifada, saying this from the Second Intifada, he said, “is “We said this won’t work, and the created a perception that Israel was that if you do not control the terri- reality turned out to be even more not as strong as it appeared. tory, you can’t fight terrorism.” The difficult than we imagined.” This Intifada was the result of intensity and lethal nature of the As to the Intifada’s long-term a decision taken by Arafat, not a ESSAY Second Intifada could only happen, he impact on the Palestinians, Amidror spontaneous combustion, he stressed, argued, “because we did not control said they realise now that if they initi- adding that Arafat’s decision was made the territory.” ate violence against civilians, they will within the context of the Lebanon Another key lesson the public took “pay a much heavier price than we withdrawal. away from the rampaging violence, will.” “There is no doubt that the Intifada said Amidror, today a fellow at the “I think they now understand that came against the background of a Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and if they use violence we will respond perception in the Arab world of Israeli Security, is that it “is impossible to in a much stronger way because our weakness following the retreat from trust the Palestinians.” capabilities are so much greater, and Lebanon,” he said. that if they pass a certain line we will But, Amidror continued, the respond with great strength,” he said. manner in which Israel dealt with Amidror said the Palestinian Au- and eventually put down the Intifada thority now also understands that the “made clear to the neighbourhood, only guarantor keeping Hamas from that if Israel is cornered, it will taking over all the territories is Israel. respond with great might. I think the Arab states saw that there is a hose two lessons, in addition to line which, when passed, Israel will Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror: “If you do not control the territory, you can’t fight Tan Israeli policy aimed at improv- respond forcefully. You can push a terrorism.” ing the economic and security situa- long time – it took a long time before tion for the Palestinians in the West Sharon gave the order to move back Amidror noted that the Intifada Bank, is preventing another Intifada- into Judea Samaria [March 2002] – broke out “after we had an agree- type explosion, he maintained. but when you cross a certain point… ment with Arafat. This wasn’t the “If you take an average Palestin- Israel will respond with great power First Intifada, where there was noth- ian in Nablus, and ask him where it is and might.” ing between us and the Palestinians better to live today – in Cairo, Am- It was that power and might that beforehand. We were after the Oslo man, Damascus or Baghdad, without eventually did put an end to the Accords when we let them back into occupation, or in Nablus with all the nightmare of the Second Intifada, but the territory. This led to a dramatic limitations of Israeli occupation, what its memory more than just lingers 20 loss of confidence in them.” do you think his answer will be? He years after its start – it continues to Amidror, who stressed that he has to be stupid not to think that life impact strongly on how the country is not a psychologist, said that what is better in Nablus.” acts, votes and views solutions to the remains in the minds of Israelis two And finally, Amidror said, the Palestinian issue. decades after the eruption of the Sec- Second Intifada also left its mark on ond Intifada is “the sense that in the Israel’s neighbours. He drew a direct Herb Keinon is diplomatic correspondent final analysis our security has to be in line from the way Israel withdrew at the Jerusalem Post. © Jerusalem our own hands,” and that this “cannot from Lebanon in May 2000 – he used Post (jpost.com), reprinted by permission, be compromised in any way.” the expression “ran away” – to the all rights reserved. Asked if this was not something obvious to most Israelis even before- hand, he replied: “We had illusions. With Compliments from Oslo was built on the premise that we could work with the Palestinians.” Amidror argued that this premise was embraced by the politicians who negotiated the Oslo Accords, but was never accepted by the security estab- Commercial property for lease – Sydney, Melbourne lishment or “professional echelon,” of which he was a part at the time in his www.fivex.com.au role as head of Military Intelligence’s 33

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AIR – October 2020 THE MONTH IN MEDIA QUOTEDNOTEDNAME OF SECTION AND

HISTORIC COVERAGE plan, which includes a US$50 billion This is incorrect. The US Admin- The momentous signing of peace economic fund, but the Palestinians istration guaranteed the UAE that the agreements between Israel, the boycotted all discussions. extension of Israeli sovereignty is off United Arab Emirates and Bahrain on Lipson said, “it is not the deal of the agenda until 2024, but made no Sept. 15 at the White House made the century that the President prom- promises it would approve it at that every local TV station’s evening news ised but it is a very good start” which time. bulletins the next day. will “cement ties” and present a united As for the definition of “longest The lead story on SBS TV “World front against a “common enemy” in military occupation”, it is completely News”, Omar Dehen’s report said the Iran. (By the way, Trump never used arbitrary. China has occupied Tibet deal covers issues such as education, the term “deal of the century” for this since 1950 and Russia has been occu- health, security and trade but doesn’t peace plan). pying territories it has no legal right “mention…the decades long conflict to since 1945. between Israel and the Palestinians.” The report noted that “Palestinian PALESTINIAN militants” fired two rockets at Israel INDIFFERENCE? SHORT AND SWEET from Gaza. In a live TV cross, ABC Middle The commercial TV stations de- Palestinian activist Noura Erakat East correspondent Eric Tlozek said voted significantly less airtime to the was shown saying, “these deals have Palestinians have responded with “in- signings. nothing to do with peace…this is difference” and “despondency” to the Channel 7 said the accords would about the United States expanding agreements, and “very few Palestin- “bolster…an anti-Iran coalition” its fear and influence throughout the ians [are] answering a call to protest.” but “Palestinians see the deal as a Middle East.” He called rocket fire from Gaza betrayal.” CNN reporter Oren Liebermann “largely a symbolic statement” but said Channel 9’s US correspondent also appeared in the story – he said Palestinians “know…they need new Amelia Adams said the deal had “gar- the countries’ “covert relations” mov- leaders and a new approach and… nered US President Donald Trump a ing out “into the open is a big step”. quickly because the region is moving Nobel Peace Prize nomination” and “Palestinians are in a very difficult on without them.” noted that rockets were fired into spot,” he added, their objections ig- Speaking later that night on ABC TV Israel from Gaza during the cer- nored, while “a door has been opened “The World”, Tlozek said the normali- emony. Channel 9 also showed footage by the Emiratis” with more Arab states sation deals show “countries are lining of Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin and PLO likely “stepping through that door.” up to form a kind of regional bloc chairman Yasser Arafat at the White against Iran, and that the Palestinian House in 1993 and said the peace deal issue has…been on the sidelines for a signed between “Israel and the Pales- MOVING WITH THE TIMES long time, but now that fact is out in tinian leader… eventually failed.” During the fourth item on ABC the open.” Channel 10’s Hugh Riminton’s TV “7pm News” on Sept. 15, US He again said rocket fire from report said it is “not a peace deal, the correspondent David Lipson noted Gaza was “largely symbolic” but quali- signatories were not at war. But it is how decades of peace process ef- fied this, saying “in the context of the a diplomatic breakthrough.” Noting forts under former US presidents last couple of years, they are nothing the rocket fire from Gaza, Riminton “Clinton, Bush and Obama” failed compared to some of the recent esca- claimed Palestinians are “walled in and to achieve a “two state solution” but lations between Hamas and Israel, and increasingly forgotten” and “they say “this most unconventional Presi- the other factions in Gaza.” they have no option but to fight.” dent has delivered a breakthrough Tlozek also said, “the military This comment attributed to the by sidelining the Palestinian people occupation by Israel – the world’s Palestinians is, of course, incorrect. entirely.” longest – is ongoing and in three years Palestinian leaders are refusing to The Trump Administration had the US says it [will] endorse Israel’s negotiate. given the Palestinians a chance to annexation of large parts of the West participate in formulating its peace Bank.” 35

AIR – October 2020 WELL, WELL, WELL compared to a 1961Jordanian census. Jackson’s piece suggested the An Age feature (Sept. 5) from Jackson said Israel’s water poli- 1993 Oslo Accords were supposed its former reporter Andra Jackson cies favour settlements and deny to have expired after five years but included a deluge of anti-Israel smears Palestinians sufficient water, causing instead the Palestinians were left in

NOTED AND QUOTEDNOTED AND handed to her by a Palestinian activist “the flight of many Palestinians” and a legal straitjacket, including unfair from the Jordan Valley who she appar- preventing Palestinian farmers from water allocation levels. Meanwhile, ently met on a Palestinian propaganda prospering. she suggested settlements have faced tour of the West Bank. Bardala’s Mayor Ziyad Sawafta no such limitations and are being Relying almost solely on informa- said “every time they [Israeli soldiers] allocated most of the Jordan Valley’s tion from activist Rashed Khudairi destroyed [our] wells, we reopened water. from the Palestinian town of Bardala, them.” In fact, the Palestinians receive the report claimed there had been While Israel does destroy illegal more water than agreed to in the 320,000 Palestinians in the Valley wells in areas under its control in the Oslo Accords, while Israeli farming before Israel captured the West Bank mountainous aquifer region, it mostly settlements in the Valley rely heavily in 1967 but now there are 65,000. ignores them in the Jordan Valley. on recycled water, and take little or A 1967 Israeli census counted Moreover, Bardala is in Area B, no water from the regional aquifer. 661,700 Palestinians in all the West under Palestinian Authority admin- While the Oslo Accords did envi- Bank, and only a few tens of thou- istrative control, and it is Palestinian sion final status talks to decide the sands in the Jordan Valley. And this water mismanagement that causes fate of the disputed territories after was only a relatively minor drop in most of the water problems blamed five years, these agreements did not Palestinian numbers in the Valley on Israel. say the deal’s provisions would expire

and durable two-state solution.” AND OUT OF Dave Sharma (Lib., Wentworth) – Sept. 3 – on the Israeli Supreme Court finding Malka Leifer fit to stand trial: “I cannot overstate what a victory this is. It’s a victory for justice, it’s a Prime Ministerˆ Scott Morrison (Lib., Cook) in his annual Rosh victory for the victims of child sexual abuse everywhere and it’s Hashana (Jewish New Year) message – Sept. 16 – “I send my best a victory for those brave victims who have been so courageous wishes to all Jewish Australians who are celebrating Rosh Ha- in leading this campaign: Dassi Erlich, Nicole Meyer and Elly shana. Each year, the blowing of the shofar on Rosh Hashanah calls Sapper.” Also welcoming the subsequent Leifer ruling outcome us to think about the year that has passed and to commit to a fu- were Josh Burns (ALP, Macnamara) on Facebook – Sept. 21 – ture of care, compassion and tolerance… This year, many Jewish and Mark Dreyfus (ALP, Isaacs) on Twitter – Sept. 21. Australians will not be able to gather together to mark the start of Minister for Communications, Cyber Safety and the Arts the High Holy Days as they usually do. But faith teaches us that we Paul Fletcher (Lib., Bradfield) – Aug. 31 – Answering a ques- can be together in spirit, even if we are physically apart.” tion from Dave Sharma: “I thank the member for Wentworth, Opposition leader Anthony Albanese (ALP, Grayndler) in his who has very distinctive expertise when it comes to the digital Rosh Hashana message – Sept. 16 – “On behalf of the Austra- economy, including from his time as Australia’s Ambassador to lian Labor Party, I wish all members of the Australian Jewish Israel, a country with remarkable achievements when it comes community a Shana Tova U’Metukah – a sweet and happy new to the digital economy, a country from which we can learn year.…I am deeply grateful to the Australian Jewish commu- much but a country against which we can in many ways compare nity for the contribution you have made to the success of our very favourably as well.” multicultural society... May this new year of 5781 bring you and Chris Hayes (ALP, Fowler) – Aug. 27 – “…Mr El Halabi is the your family naches and simchas, and may the Shofar sound extra former director of World Vision Australia operating in Gaza and loudly to usher in a year that will bring not only joy and success, the West Bank. He was arrested … by the Israeli authorities on but also recovery and renewal.” allegations of funnelling $50 million of World Vision money into Foreign Minister Senator Marise Payne (Lib., NSW) on Twitter the terrorist group Hamas. … It has now been more than four – Sept 12 – “Australia welcomes the historic announcement of the years since his arrest, with the Israeli prosecutors yet to prove normalisation of relations between Israel and Bahrain. It is a cou- the allegations made against him or order his release. Accord- rageous step forward for peace and security in the Middle East.” ing to reports, Mr El Halabi has been subjected to physical and Shadow Foreign Minister Senator Penny Wong (ALP, SA) on psychological torture, has restricted medical care and limited Twitter – Sept. 13 – “Labor welcomes the normalisation of visitation rights… His lawyer argues that this is a very clear case relations between Bahrain and Israel, in addition to the UAE and of political bias, stating, ‘Mohammed is a scapegoat for a mis- Israel, in the hope it will bring new opportunities for stability information campaign to intimidate international humanitarian 36 and peace in the region, & meaningful progress to achieve a just organisations working in Gaza.’”

AIR – October 2020 if those talks did not succeed. Final vehemently condemned as ending the Israel – all of whom want to contain status talks did take place in 2000 and two-state solution. Iran’s influence in the Middle East,” Israel offered to create a Palestinian he wrote. state in Gaza and 95% of the West Williams insisted the Iranian re-

Bank, including all of the Jordan Val- STATISTICAL HIGHS AND gime is friendly to Australians. QUOTEDNOTED AND ley. The offer was rejected. LOWS Meanwhile, in the Canberra Times Absurdly, Jackson suggested it Print and electronic reports noted (Aug. 25) AIJAC’s Naomi Levin was oppressive to expect Palestinians Israel had the unenviable distinction quoted US analyst Michael Rubin’s to apply for building permits on land of being the first country to return advice on how to free Moore-Gil- they own in Area C, which is under to full lockdown as coronavirus cases bert, saying, “quiet diplomacy is… full Israeli jurisdiction. If they did skyrocketed. what the Iranians want” because it not need such permits, this would But better news was had in “allow[s] things to be swept under be a situation unique under town Australian foreign editor Greg the rug…when you make this front planning rules almost anywhere in Sheridan’s review (Sept. 19) of Ross and centre of every single diplo- the world. Douthat’s book The Decadent Society, matic [and commercial] relation with The article accused Israeli soldiers in which he noted that Israel’s birth- Iran… that’s when the… govern- and settlers of deliberately destroying rate is the highest of any Western ment listens.” Palestinian olive groves. country. Levin suggested Australia’s Am- Yet in 2019, West Bank Palestin- Sheridan wrote, “The decline in bassador to Iran should ‘suspend’ her ians produced a record amount of the Western birthrate is staggering… official activities in Iran “until Moore- olive products from 10 million olive The only Western nation that still has Gilbert is freed.” trees. Even if every Palestinian claim a replacement level or above birthrate of vandalism against olive trees were is Israel” because it “is the one Western verifiably accurate – which is unlikely nation that… is still fired by a nation- EXPLOSIVE CLAIMS – it would still mean that fewer than building and people-building project The Nine newspapers (Sept. one-tenth of one percent of all Pales- and strives mightily to make the im- 19) reported on US State Depart- tinian olive trees had been affected. possible not only possible but real.” ment Counter-Terrorism Coordina- tor Nathan Sales’ comments to an American Jewish Committee online INDIGESTIBLE HOSTAGE TO MISSED forum pointing out that Hezbollah David Rowe’s Sept. 17 Australian FORTUNE is believed to have been transport- Financial Review cartoon featured Academic Clive Williams specu- ing ammonium nitrate across Europe a dining table with an empty chair lated in the Australian (Sept. 18) that in ice packs since 2012. Ammonium labelled Palestine, and US President Iran imprisoned Australian academic nitrate is the explosives precursor Donald Trump and Israeli PM Bin- Kylie Moore-Gilbert on trumped up responsible for the Beirut port explo- yamin Netanyahu with the UAE and spying charges as a bargaining chip to sion in August. Bahrain foreign ministers ready to pressure Britain, not Australia. Sales was quoted saying, “Why carve up a dove of peace. Williams noted that Moore- would Hezbollah stockpile ammo- This was in bad taste. Gilbert has a British passport too, nium nitrate on European soil?...The The Palestinians deliberately chose which, he claimed, might have at- answer is clear…so it could conduct to vacate the table in early 2014, tracted the attention of Iran as part major terrorist attacks whenever with almost three years left of then of its campaign to pressure the UK to it or its masters in Tehran deemed US President Obama’s term, when “release…substantial funds owed to necessary.” Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas Tehran from an uncompleted 1970s abandoned US mediated peace talks, arms deal. (Detained British dual na- vowing never to return. tional Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was NUCLEAR SPIN CYCLE Notwithstanding that, Trump has allegedly told by her interrogators On SBS TV “World News” (Aug. backed creating a Palestinian state and that her detention was linked to the 21), Abby Denham’s report on US in- a US$50 billion fund to turbocharge arms deal.)” tentions to reimpose sanctions on Iran the Palestinian economy. But the UK “is probably dragging correctly stated that this was because Moreover, the UAE convinced its feet over release of the money the UN Security Council rejected a Netanyahu to suspend plans to apply owed to Iran due to ongoing pressure move to extend an arms embargo on Israeli sovereignty to parts of the not to do so from the Trump admin- Iran set to expire this October under West Bank, which the Palestinians had istration, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the 2015 nuclear deal. 37

AIR – October 2020 The segment included US Secre- self-imposed. Many Arab states are diculous conspiracy theory based on tary of State Mike Pompeo saying the tired of Hamas and Fatah’s rejectionist non-existent fine print buried in the US policy was to try to prevent the stance and refuse to continue provid- UAE-Israel peace treaty that sup- “world’s largest state sponsor of ter- ing financial aid, or to hold their own posedly would let non-Muslims pray

NOTED AND QUOTEDNOTED AND ror” from being free to “buy and sell interests hostage to seemingly insa- openly on the Temple Mount. planes, tanks and missiles and other tiable Palestinian demands. Sydney-based Israeli expat aca- conventional weapons.” demic Eyal Mayroz, a signatory to On SBS TV “World News” (Sept. ‘Sydney Staff 4 BDS,’ was asked by 20), Omar Dehen’s report on the US HITTING A WALL West, “you have been reading the announcement that it was trigger- SBS TV “World News” (Aug. 31) re- fine print of this proposed deal; what ing “snapback” of UN sanctions, said ported on the “historic” first commer- does the fine print suggest about the “countless incidents [under Trump]… cial El Al flight from Israel to the UAE status of Haram al-Sharif, which is the have destroyed any goodwill the and that US envoy Jared Kushner was compound that the Israelis know as countries seemed to generate with the on board after visiting the Western the Temple Mount?” nuclear deal five years ago.” Wall “which is Judaism’s holiest site.” Mayroz replied, “I have read the In fact, even under former US It is not. The holiest site is the Temple statement issued earlier and there’s President Barack Obama, when Mount. an interesting passage there… which the deal was agreed in 2015, Iran’s On SBS Radio (Aug. 31), Stepha- has been pointed to as potentially a rhetoric was viscerally hostile towards nie Corsetti’s report correctly said change in the status quo which forbids reconciliation with the US. the Western Wall “is the holiest place all other faiths to pray on Temple Australian academic Amin Saikal, where Jews can pray” and included Mount… if the limitation on prayers quoted in the report, insisted re- Israeli PM Netanyahu saying the UAE are no longer covering the whole of newed sanctions were a Trump re- deal was possible because of “the the Temple Mount, then this is poten- election ploy. Trump plan and US support for Arab tially a major change.” On Sept. 21, SBS TV “World states willing… to advance peace This “earlier statement” was a News”, Abbie O’Brien’s report said without a Palestinian veto.” White House statement on Aug. 13 US sanctions will apply to organisa- Nine Newspapers ignored the El announcing the historic breakthrough. tions and individuals linked with Al flight, instead reporting on Hamas That statement said, “all Muslims Iran’s nuclear industry and its missile and Israel renewing a truce (Sept. 2). who come in peace may visit and pray development program. O’Brien also at the Al Aqsa Mosque, and Jerusa- reported US claims that Iran will lem’s other holy sites should remain have enough material for a nuclear BARNS’ LOBBY HOBBY open for peaceful worshippers of all weapon by year’s end and accusations Greg Barns’ many anti-Israel faiths.” that Teheran has resumed long-range media statements over the years have The fact that the statement said missile cooperation with North snared him regular critical appear- “Al Aqsa Mosque”, and not “Haram Korea. ances in the AIR. Yet he continues to al-Sharif” – the Muslim name for the be published freely. whole Temple Mount plaza – was But Barns doesn’t seem to see it touted as evidence Israel was about to DISS IS NOT REPORTING that way, grumbling in the Mercury change the status quo that has been in Reporting on Bahrain’s bombshell (Aug. 31) “it is…legitimate to ques- place since 1967. announcement that it would sign a tion the vice-like grip that the Israel In fact, the treaties signed on Sept. peace deal with Israel, ABC North lobby has on the Australian media and 15 made no mention of Jerusalem, America correspondent Kathryn Diss its political class.” which West should have known and told ABC TV “News at Noon Week- Surely, his continued ability to told his listeners. ends” (Sept. 12), that “Arab nations write whatever he likes about Israel West also wrongly claimed there are drawing closer to Israel, at the ex- and its supporters disproves the very are two mosques on the Temple pense, or at the isolation of the Pales- accusation he is making? Mount. The Dome of the Rock is a tinians… the reason why we’re seeing shrine, not a mosque. these Arab nations form allegiances Mayroz insisted the treaties signed in the region is to try and counter FINE PRINT, TERRIBLE were not peace treaties, saying, “They the strength and growing influence of REPORT said it’s short of a peace agreement.” Iran. But that is coming at the expense ABC Radio National “Religion Who is they? The word “peace” ap- of the Palestinians.” and Ethics Report” (Sept. 16) host pears in the title and throughout the 38 Palestinian isolation is entirely Andrew West seemed to push a ri- documents signed.

AIR – October 2020 Allon Lee MEDIA MICROSCOPE ARGUING WITH PEACE? much more careful…when it comes to dealing with the It’s hard to argue against peace - which is probably why West Bank and the Palestinians in order not to endanger regular critics of Israel mostly fell silent regarding the the newly established relations with the Arab world… historic peace agreements between Israel and the UAE and Palestinian[s]…realise…they are going nowhere, that they Bahrain. are losing or already have lost the Arab world, and…have The Age, Sydney Morning Herald and Canberra Times made to recalculate their course.” no editorial comment. The Guardian Australia’s ran an op-ed from Palestinian The Herald Sun (Sept. 17) writer Raja Shehadeh (Sept. 18) editorialised that the agree- “The Nine newspapers ran Age senior writer that defied the historical record ments “recogni[se that] the sta- Maher Mughrabi who said the deals were with a claim that since June tus quo from the West Bank and not historic breakthroughs but agreements 1967 Israel has been “unwill- Gaza is no longer supported.” between ‘despots’ and ‘rich men’” ing to recognise the Palestinian The Australian (Sept. 17) nation or cede control of… editorial said, “Arab nations have paid a high price for their Palestinian territory… in order to make peace.” self-inflicted isolation from Israel’s economy, which is the On Sept. 1, the paper’s Rosie Scammell wrote, “Abu most dynamic in the region… The accord shows the extent Dhabi claimed its deal stopped Israel from annexing parts to which the mood in the Middle East is changing. Even of the occupied West Bank, although the unilateral step the 22-nation Arab League, often a hotbed of anti-Israel touted by Netanyahu was widely seen as already off the ferment, did not support a Palestinian demand to con- agenda.” demn the UAE’s diplomatic ties with Jerusalem.” But AIJAC’s Sharyn Mittelman pointed out in the Daily In the same edition, Wall Street Journal columnist and Telegraph (Sept. 15), “In June, the UAE’s Ambassador to recent AIJAC guest Walter Russell Mead said Israel hasn’t the US Yousef Al Otaiba wrote an unprecedented op-ed for enjoyed a “diplomatic month like this since” May 1948, Israel’s largest Hebrew-language newspaper Yediot Ahronot when the US and the USSR recognised the Jewish State. titled, ‘It’s Either Annexation or Normalisation.’” In the same paper, Australian foreign editor Greg Sheri- In the Canberra Times (Sept. 16), the Zionist Federation dan said, “If this had happened under anyone but Trump of Australia’s Bren Carlill opined that “Obama’s nuclear it would be hailed as a magnificent triumph of American deal… resulted in increased regional Iranian malfeasance, statecraft and the relevant president would be on their way help[ing] pave the way to wider Arab-Israel peace.” to a Nobel Peace Prize… Obama won…yet… his only big The paper ran Palestinian lobbyist George Browning’s agreement [was] the disastrous deal that legitimised Iran’s response (Sept. 18), arguing that Palestinian “representa- nuclear program in exchange for a temporary promise not tives are absent from the process,” so it doesn’t constitute to produce nuclear weapons.” genuine peace. NewYork Times columnist Thomas Friedman waxed lyrical In the Melbourne Age (Sept. 15), AIJAC’s Dr. Colin Ru- in the Australian Financial Review (Sept. 17), saying, “I pray benstein argued, “The UAE and Bahrain normalisation deals each night that Trump is defeated in November, but if he with Israel are… the tip of a much wider regional iceberg and [administration special envoy Jared] Kushner helped to of changing strategic thinking that signals a far-reaching nurture this deal on their way out the door, good for them.” re-alignment.” On Sept. 21, the same paper ran former Australian On Sept. 17, the Nine newspapers ran Age senior writer foreign minister Alexander Downer’s observation that “no Maher Mughrabi who said the deals were not historic break- answer” is the response Palestinian leaders give whenever throughs but agreements between “despots” and “rich men”. asked what they want, and the failure of past peace efforts Academic Ghassan Hage (Age, Sept. 18) argued that a meant “the smart thing to do is to change the conversation.” “US-Israeli-Saudi alliance…has sought to redirect regional Speaking to ABC NewsRadio (Sept. 16), AIJAC’s Ahron focus on the ‘Iranian threat’, rather than the Palestinian Shapiro said Palestinian leaders “should be listening to… question. This, however, is bound to increase the already their Arab friends… telling them, please talk, let’s talk large gap…in the Arab world between…the ruling elite about a state that you are prepared to accept.” and …the majority of the people.” Veteran Israeli commentator Ehud Yaari told ABC Radio And yet, large-scale popular demonstrations against the National “Saturday Extra” (Sept. 19) that “Israel…will be deals have been absent in the Arab world. 39

AIR – October 2020 NAME OF SECTION Jeremy Jones

PARADIGM SHIFTS Some years before this, I had been at an annual Lib- The photograph dominated the wall behind the desk at eration Festival at the Glebe Town Hall in Sydney, where which our host was sitting. genuine human rights groups and anti-US Cold War war- Three representatives from across the Jewish world had riors gathered. been invited to meet an influential minister in the govern- The PLO had a booth serving as a hub for those who ment of an Arab State, one of a series of interactions with wanted to cheer on terrorism as essentially an end in itself. officials of countries which had no relations with Israel but In the main hall they wanted open channels with world Jewry. were almost rock stars, The picture was of our host shaking hands with Yasser having gained notoriety Arafat. and attention for their The minister followed our line of sight and said, “The heroes’ terrorism, but only thing that man [Arafat] was ever any good at was having in the corridors it was his picture taken with people more important than he was.” a different story. Quite PLO leader Yasser Arafat: No longer This was not what we had expected him to say, and a few of the representa- a popular figure in Arab capitals what followed was even more unexpected. tives of the human rights In 25 minutes, he gave an exposition of history, recent groups found the antisemitism in some of the anti-Israel events and the contemporary geopolitical landscape – it propaganda to be not just distasteful but undermining of was one of the most erudite presentations of Israel’s case anti-racism activism. one would ever be likely to hear. Others saw the PLO activities in UN agencies – re- He spoke of Ottoman and pre-Ottoman history, the sulting in most human rights abusers escaping criticism, legality of Israel’s existence and the immoral posturing of let alone censure, as the PLO’s agenda didn’t extend to not just the Palestinian leadership but of international and general principles (or any principles at all) – as weakening global organisations, particularly those associated with the a body on which they depended. United Nations. I heard many idealists who were serious about building His attitude to the Palestinian leadership was that they a better world express contempt for the self-centredness, were dishonest, corrupt, self-serving and the primary rea- political narcissism and blatant dishonesty of the PLO and son that no self-generated Palestinian political entity had other Palestinian organisations. come into being. But they simultaneously raised their hands and some- When we asked him why, given what he said, his coun- times their voices in support of organisations and strate- try always voted against Israel in the United Nations, why gies they knew were wrong and destructive, because that his country’s media was so blatantly misleading its audi- was the way of the world in the self-defined human rights ence and similar questions, his answers also surprised us. community. He said Israel was secure, and the only people who be- It was put to me that they meant no harm, and that a lieved the anti-Israel propaganda were politically-irrelevant time would come when they would be free to act on their and ill-informed Westerners. Threats to the lives of any consciences and not be bullied into betraying what they Arab figure who challenged the Palestinian leaders’ cam- knew to be true. paigns and the zeitgeist in the Organisation of the Islamic With the recent developments in Israel’s relations with Conference also featured in his government’s thinking. some Arab countries, with similarly fascinating develop- He inferred that the time would come when the Muslim- ments with the Muslim world, with challenges to the way majority countries would have had enough of the Palestinian the identikit “left” has betrayed the progressive side of political leadership’s behaviour, politics, there is reason for optimism. and, at that time, Israelis, Pal- The process may be painfully slow or stunningly swift, estinians and the Middle East in but there is a good basis for believing that a new zeitgeist is general would be beneficiaries. arriving.

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