Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-19115-0 — Strategies for Managing Uncertainty Alfred A
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Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-19115-0 — Strategies for Managing Uncertainty Alfred A. Marcus Index More Information Index 12 Golden Rules, TOTAL, 231 Allegheny Technologies Incorporated 1970 Clean Air Act, 134, 283–285, (ATI), 114 371, 474 all-electric car, 121 1973 Arab oil embargo, 19 all-electric spark, 256 1973 oil crisis, 54, 358 Al-Qaeda, 80 1976 Toxic Substances Control Act, alternative fuel technologies 291 GM, 255–256 1977 Clean Air Acts, 134 alternative fuel vehicles, 62, 63, 366 1992 Earth Summit, 25 aluminum, 132 2014–2015 price collapse America First demands, 447–448 BP, 184 Amnesty International, 202 ExxonMobil, 164 Ampera-e, 273 Ford, 286 Amyris, 238 GM, 256–263 analogical reasoning, 29–30 Shell, 204–205 anchoring, 33 TOTAL, 224–230 Andarko, 136 Toyota, 363–373 animal spirits, 5, 18 VW, 329–339 anti-pollution laws, 120 Appalachian, 136 absolute uncertainty, 18 Arabian American Oil Company. See Abu Dhabi oil production, 214 Aramco abundant supplies Arab–Israeli wars, 55, 80 fracking revolution, 70–71 Aramco, 98, 99, Mitchell Energy, 71–73 ArcelorMittal, 119 accountability Arch Coal, 134, Ford, 299 Art of the Long View, The, 57 active grille shutter technology, 309 Asia ADAM, 268 automobiles sale in, 108 adaptation, 39–40 Toyota in, 379, 390 Advance Auto Parts, 117 Asia Pacific Advanced Clean Car, 366 Ford, 300–301 advanced mobility and intelligent Aston Martin, 280 transport, 386 Audi, 340, 343, 346 adverse events, 4 Audi A6, 122 Ford, 294 Audi A7, 122 AeroVironment, 255 Australia, 94 Africa, 226 Australian investments, 213 agriculture, 88 auto sector Akebono Brake, 117 decision makers in, 47 532 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-19115-0 — Strategies for Managing Uncertainty Alfred A. Marcus Index More Information Index 533 auto start-stop technology, 309 billion oil-equivalent barrels (BOEB), automakers. See motor vehicle sector 173, 177 automating driving Bio-based fuels, 75 VW, 346 biobutanol, 195 automobiles biofuels, 237 Asia, sale in, 108 bitumen, 48 Europe, sale in, 108 Black Sea, 82 US, sale in, 108 Black Swans, 18, 29 Automotive Manufacturers Association BlackRock, 163 (ACEA), 365 BMW 7 series, 122 autonomous driving, 128 Bolivia, 100 VW, 352 Bolt, 123, 272 autonomous vehicles, 319 Bosch, 113 autonomy, 275 Bowker, Kent, 72, AutoZone, 117 BP, 1, 4, 6, 17, 20, 46, 48, 87, 93, 96, availability, 33 101, 136, 181 Avalon, 119, 358 2014–2015 Price Collapse, 184 aviation, 88 after 2014–2015 price collapse, 186 axles, 115 capital expenditure, 193 Azerbaijan, 93 climate change, 183–184, 186 climate change and government, 187 Babbage, Charles, 29 completing projects, 185 bad loans, 68 continued demand, 186 BAIC, 110, deepwater horizon accident, Baiji refinery, 80 199–200 Bakken, 77 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Balancing Act, 43–44 181–183 Baojun, 262 Deepwater Horizon payments, Barnett basin, 73 414–416 Barnett Shale Basin, 233 downsizing, 196 Barra, Mary, 252, 253, 276 downstream integration, 196–197 batteries, 79, 114, 117 downstream oil and natural gas battery electric vehicles (BEVs), 63, recovery, 198 260, 270, 310 expenditures, 191 Battery management systems, 310 harvesting wind, 418 battery regeneration, 345 hedging, 189–198 battery technology, 22 high-impact R&D, 197–198 Baysean judgment, 30 long term possibilities, 188 Beetle, 325 low oil prices, 187 behavioral psychology of firms, 5 oil demand, acknowledging, behavioral theories of firms, 5 413–414 Beijing Motors (BAIC), 111 oil’s dominance, 189 Bell Lab, 33 operational excellence, 190 Bentley, 324 operational safety, 184 beyond petroleum campaign, 46, 160 performance, 198–199 biases, individual, 33–34 politics and climate change, 185 Big data, 293 price volatility, 185 Big data analytics, 352 project pipeline, 187 Big Winners and Big Losers, 3 returns, 418 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-19115-0 — Strategies for Managing Uncertainty Alfred A. Marcus Index More Information 534 Index BP (cont.) carbon tax, 160 short-term price pressures, 188 Carbon Tracker, 163 Strategic Moves 2017–2018, 413 carbon-pricing system, 209 super-computers, 417 Carter, Jimmy, 54 upstream investment, 190–196 Caspian Sea, 227 upstream oil and natural gas Center for International Environmental recovery, 197 Law, 162 BP Solar, 184 Changan, 110, 111 brakes, 113, 114, 117 Changan Ford Automobile brand and model mix Corporation, 314 GM, 267–269, 272–273 Chariot, 319 brand performance Chernobyl, 144 VW, 343 Chery, 254 Brazil, 93 Chery BYD, 110 Brent (Europe, Africa and Asia), 92 Chesapeake Energy, 136, 233 Bridgestone, 118 Chevrolet, 111, 252, 253, 254, 268 British Advertising Standards Chevrolet Bolt electric vehicle, 256 Authority, 204 Chevrolet Colorado, 259 Browne, John, 182 Chevrolet Equinox, 112, 270 Bugatti, 324 Chevrolet Express, 269 Buick, 111, 253, 254, 262, 268 Chevrolet Impala, 269 Buick LaCrosse hybrid, 273 Chevrolet Malibu XL, 273 Bush, George H., 146 Chevrolet Silverado, 112, 269 business cycle, 55 Chevrolet Volt, 119, 273 business startups, 65 Chevron, 101, 136 business-government cooperation, 3 Chevy Bolt, 396 BYD, 254 China Byrd–Hagel resolution, 25, 147 GM in, 271 Toyota in, 380, 390 Cadillac, 111, 253, 254, 262, 267 China Southern Power, 139 Cadillac CT 6, 273, 275 China Sunergy, 151 California Air Resources Board motor vehicle sector, 176 (CARB), 22, 260, 366 China’s ascendancy in motor vehicle California Electric Utility Restructuring sector, 110–111 Law, 140 domestic brands, 110 CALPER, 163 Chinese economy, 20, 66 Canadian tar sands, 48 Chinese Meltdown, 67–68 CAPEX, 348 Chinese National Petroleum Company capital allocation decision-making, 211 (CNPC), 222 capital investments, 214, CHINT Group, 151 capital-intensive investment, 77 Chrysler RAM trucks, 391 carbon capture and sequestration Chrysler’s Ram Charger, 112 (CCS), 147 Citroen, 111, carbon capture and storage (CCS), City populations, 293 209 civil wars, 225 carbon dioxide, 145 Clean Air Act, 283 Carbon Disclosure Project, 341 clean air and fuel efficiency regulations, carbon emissions, 208 294–295 carbon ethanol, 195 Clean Energy Partnership, 239 carbon pricing, 187, 194 Clean Power Plan (CPP), 58, 152 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-19115-0 — Strategies for Managing Uncertainty Alfred A. Marcus Index More Information Index 535 cleaner energy, 2 connected vehicles, 128 climate change, 1, 5, 7, 25–26, 42, 90, ConocoPhillips, 136 165, 261 conservatism, 33 and regulation, Shell, 205–206 consumer preferences, 225 BP, 183–184, 186 contingencies, 125 pressures, 162–164 contingency planning, 45 shell, 203–204, 208 Controversial Issues in Energy Policy, 2 Shell, 203–204, 208 conventional vehicles TOTAL, 223–224, 228 Toyota, 380 Toyota, 368 converted RAV4 electric vehicles, 360 VW, 330, Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency climate policies, 187 (CAFÉ) standards, 50, 126, 255, close-to-business-as-usual projections, 288, 366 66 cost saving clustering, 33 GM, 262–263 clutches, 115 Costco, 117 C-MAX, 316 counter-cyclical hedge, 200 CO2 emissions, 61, 149, 186, 207, 213, countercyclical role, 175 292, 302, 307, 321, 336, 341, 342, crisis management systems, 229 402 crossover utility vehicles (CUVs), 112 restrictions, 170 crossovers, 281 CO2 reductions, 213 crude oil, 88 CO2 standards, 289 Cruise Automation, 256, 260 CO2 taxes, 289 crystalline silicon efficiencies, 149 coal, 89, 90, 134, CSR and Climate Change Implications production, 136 for Multinational Enterprises, 8 coal and natural gas generation, cybersecurity, 185 138 Czech refining business, 216 coal-burning power plants, 136 Coalition for American Solar Daihatsu, 358 Manufacturing (CASM), 152 Dana, 115 Cobalts, 252 Dated Brent (Asia-Pacific), 92 Coll, Steve, 46 Davis, Gray, 140 collective errors, 34 decision makers, 1, 19, 31, 37, 43, 44, commercial vehicles brands, VW, 324 104 companies with benefitting, 150–152 balancing influences, 43 competition effectiveness of, 19 and alliances, GM, 257 in auto sector, 47 motor vehicle sector, 109–110, in energy industry, 24, 28, 43 113–114 in fossil fuels, 21 competitors and suppliers decision-making, 5 GM, 259 structured, 44 compressed natural gas (CNG), 63, track record, 9 269, 310 decision-making limitations, 28, 39 compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, biases, individual, 33–34 317, 345 companies’ adaptation, 39–40 ConcoPhillips, 22 effect uncertainty, 36 Conference of the Parties (COP), 59 future anticipation, 28–30 confirmation, 33 group limitations, 34–35 congenial information, 34 leadership, 37–38 © in this web service Cambridge University Press www.cambridge.org Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-19115-0 — Strategies for Managing Uncertainty Alfred A. Marcus Index More Information 536 Index decision-making limitations (cont.) Shell, 215–218 profiting from risk and uncertainty, TOTAL, 238–240 38–39 downstream oil and natural gas response uncertainty, 36–37 recovery, 198 risks, taking calculated, 30–33 downstream rivalry, 101–102 state uncertainty, 35–36 drilling, 89 Deepwater Horizon disaster, 181 driver assistance Deepwater Horizon oil spill, 46, 181, Toyota, 393 190 driver-assistance systems, 351 deep-water offshore oil extraction, drivetrain components, 115 48 Dubai and Oman (Middle East), 92 deep-water oil projects, 172 Ducati, 324 deepwater wells, 213 Dudley, Bob, 182 defective ignition switches Duke, 138, 153 GM, 252–253 DuPont, 195 deformation-resistant passenger cells, Dutch-English oil, 202