CRISIS London International Model United Nations 21St Session | 2020

London International Model United Nations 2020 CRISIS London International Model United Nations 21st Session | 2020 London International Crisis Model United Nations 2020 Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 INTRODUCTION LETTER 4 A QUICK INTRODUCTION TO CRISIS 6 BASE MECHANICS - CABINETS, DIRECTIVES AND SESSIONS 6 Cabinets 7 Directives 8 Sessions 9 WHAT DELEGATES CAN EXPECT 10 WHAT WE LOOK FOR FROM DELEGATES 11 INTRODUCTION TO THE OIL INDUSTRY 14 THE POST-WAR OIL ORDER A BRIEF TIMELINE 14 THE POST-WAR ECONOMIC ORDER 15 The Long Boom 15 The Oil Industry 16 FIRST POST-WAR OIL CRISIS - IRANIAN REVOLUTION 1951 19 Anglo- Iranian Oil Negotiations 19 Nationalisation of Iranian Oil Industry 20 Mosaddegh Coup 21 SECOND POST-WAR OIL CRISIS - SUEZ CRISIS 1956 22 The Invasion of the Suez Canal 22 The Political Implications of the Crisis 23 THIRD POST-WAR OIL CRISIS - THE SIX DAYS WAR 1967 24 Religious Tensions 24 Background of the Conflict 25 War Breaks Out 26 Testing the ‘Oil Weapon’ 26 CABINET BACKGROUNDS 28 THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 28 2 London International Crisis Model United Nations 2020 The decline of American oil production and The fall of the Bretton Woods system 28 US Price Controls 1971-1973 30 The Watergate Scandal 31 THE SOVIET UNION 34 Brezhnev’s Rise to power 34 Soviet Union power structure under Brezhnev & the Troika 35 Soviet Economy under Brezhnev 38 Soviet Oil Exports 44 OPEC 46 Institutional background 46 Overview of structure and roles 48 Areas of operation 50 OPEC Organizational structure 51 OPEC ‘Leapfrogging’ 53 A Move Towards Participation 55 The ‘Oil Weapon’ 57 SEVEN SISTERS 58 Overview of the Seven Sisters 58 Areas of Operation 70 REFERENCES 75 3 London International Crisis Model United Nations 2020 Introduction Letter Dear Delegates, Welcome to the LIMUN 2020 Crisis. Starting in 1973, this simulation will see you take part in an event that defined the economic and geopolitical landscape of the world for the next few decades. Often overlooked, the 1973 OPEC Crisis was a culmination of conflicting foreign policy initiatives that resulted in the world's first "oil shock", cementing the global economy's dependence on oil. Our simulation aims to provide something different to the plethora of Medieval and ancient wars so often seen as the default crisis scenario. If this is your first crisis, we hope you find it as enjoyable as we all found our first experience, and if this is only one of many crisis experiences you've done, we hope that you find it to be a unique experience. We look forward to meeting all of you in February. Best regards, Maria, Kevin and Perth 4 London International Crisis Model United Nations 2020 Director – Maria Slobodina Maria Slobodina is a recent Neuroscience graduate from University College London. She is due to start an MSc in Entrepreneurship at the same institution in September, through which she hopes to develop a social enterprise that helps the social care sector in the UK meet its current and future workforce demands. This will be Maria’s third LIMUN Crisis and she is honoured to return as a Co-Director after previously serving as the Assistant Director in 2019 and the Head of the Italian Cabinet in 2018. Director – Perth Ophaswongse Perth Ophaswongse is a 4th year International Relations Student at the University of Edinburgh. Perth has done over 30 crises and this will be his third year on the LIMUN Crisis team, having served as a cabinet Chair in the two previous editions of the LIMUN Crisis. Assistant Director – Kevin Wang Kevin Wang is a graduate from the University of Oxford. He is due to start a PhD in Migration Studies at the same institution in October, through which he hopes to develop UK and Chinese research to create better understanding between the two nations. This will be Kevin’s third LIMUN Crisis and he is flattered to return as Assistant Director after previously serving as the Assistant Director in 2019 and the Head of the French Cabinet in 2018. 5 London International Crisis Model United Nations 2020 A Quick Introduction to Crisis Crisis isn’t at all like the standard committees in Model United Nations. General Assembly and other main branch committees operate primarily using a series of moderated caucuses that are regulated by the chair. In crisis there are little to no moderated caucuses, and the chair is also a character in the crisis. The chair is there to guide the committee and to help it achieve its goals, but the events of the crisis can and will affect them just like they could affect a delegate. In crisis, you do not represent a particular country, instead - you will receive a biography of a specific person prior to the crisis and would be expected to effectively become the character throughout the crisis. Whereas the main written product of a GA delegate would be a resolution, crisis delegates achieve most of their success through communicating via unmoderated caucuses and individual/collective directives. Directives are messages sent to the Crisis backroom where they are assessed and processed to either forward or challenge your progress. In essence, a directive should tell the backroom staff two things: what and how you want to do things. In a holistic approach, crisis basically lets you interact with the world beyond that of the discussions within the committee sessions. However, do not worry, as we will explain everything to all of you again at the very beginning of the conference, and we will be very happy to help you in the times before and during the conference! Base Mechanics - Cabinets, Directives and Sessions If you are new to Crisis, or even if you are familiar to crisis, then there are a few things that you will need to know for LIMUN Crisis Committee sessions. This section will cover the three main components that are 6 London International Crisis Model United Nations 2020 esse ntial to this year’s LIMUN crisis format: the Cabinets, Directives and the Sessions. Cabinets Cabinets are the physical rooms to which you sit and contain the other delegates you may choose to interact with. In crisis, cabinets can represent a countries government or other specific institutions. Do remember that you alone are responsible for meeting with people inside your cabinet, while the facilitation of meeting people outside your cabinet is the responsibility of the backroom staff. Be thoughtful that each cabinet and character can have their own motives and objectives. Of course, as in real life, the cabinets are not to restrict your imagination, but to guide you in the initial steps of the crisis. As the crisis develops, your positions will change, the nature of cabinets will change, and you will have much more flexibility to choose from with your character. A brief description of your title will be included in your bio. In general, these descriptions of your title will show you the limitations and capabilities of your position within and outside the cabinet. However, in no way do they limit what you can do. The backroom can easily miss things out, and within the context of the crisis, we can accommodate information / capabilities / powers you think are missing from your bio / character. In general, this crisis will have four cabinets: • The United States of America • The Soviet Union • OPEC • Seven Sisters 7 London International Crisis Model United Nations 2020 Directives Directives are the backbone of any crisis. They effectively act as requests which can bolster your own position and alter the crisis as a whole. However, beware everyone within the crisis is also sending directives. All directives are sieved into the backroom and from there they are processed. The extent to which a directive is approved will often depend on how logical it can be for the backroom. Directives also come in all shapes and sizes so don’t worry too much if you don’t have much experience. However, in a nutshell, directives should follow three points. Directives should be: 1. Realistic Think about it, can your character accomplish this with the resources currently available to them? If not, backtrack your plan a little bit and see if you can first acquire the necessary resources for your plan to be feasible. 2. Detailed If you submit a very short directive, it’s likely that it is not detailed enough to pass, and this can seriously backfire and sometimes even damage your character long-term. Here it’s good to ask yourself questions. How? When? For example, if you want to follow another character ‘discreetly’, you might want to think about what clothes you are wearing, what distance will you keep from your target and how you will avoid detection by whatever security detail they may have. Here, your aim is to close all the potential loopholes in your plan. 3. Precise Directives should be precise and to the point. Where possible, like with military operations and acquiring assets, try to specify numbers. Again, think about what would be realistic. Being detailed is good, but too much detail will also slow down the processing time for your directive. In 8 London International Crisis Model United Nations 2020 principle, every sentence of your directive should add something meaningful to your plan. However, it is important not to neglect intra- and inter-cabinet diplomacy. You can accomplish a lot with your own directives but diversifying your tactics in committee can potentially let you finish the crisis with even bigger gains. It’s not just about what directives you write, but what kind of directives you can persuade your committee members to write or, in fact, not write.

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