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Monthly Market Report Monthly Market Report The gross domestic product in Romania increased by 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter, but compared to the same quarter of the previous year, it registered a decrease of 1.7%. The annual rate of CPI inflation stood at 2.99% in January 2021 in Romania, a higher value compared to that recorded in December (2.06%). FSA No 2/02.25.2021 Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Romania stood at 4.9% in December 2020, down 0.2 pp from the previous month (5.1%). The industrial production index reverted to a low volatility regime as Romanian economy rebounded Page 1 / 26 sharply after two quarters of negative growth. World Macroeconomic Outlook According to data published by Eurostat, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU compared to the previous quarter, as a result of containment measures imposed amid the outbreak of the second wave of infections. These developments took place after the euro area and EU economies recorded the largest contractions in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.7% in the euro area and -11.4% in the EU), followed by robust economic recovery in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.4% in the euro area and +11.5% in the EU). Compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 5.0% in the euro area and by 4.8% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2020. Romania’s GDP increased by 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the previous quarter, but compared to the same quarter of the previous year, it decreased by 1.7%. The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis revised down the economic growth forecast for 2020, to -4.4% (from -4.2% according to the preliminary autumn forecast of NCSP), amid declining activity in industry (-8,7%), agriculture (-21.9%) and services (-2.3%) compared to 2019. According to the NCSP forecast, construction will have a positive contribution to GDP in 2020, with an estimated growth of 10.6 %. For the next year, NCSP estimates a recovery of the Romanian economy, with an advance of 4.3%. GDP development in 2019-2020 Q2 European Commission IMF Country Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 2019 Q1 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 2020 2020f 2021f 2020f 2021f Euro area 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.3 -3.2 -14.7 -4.3 -5.0 -6.8 3.8 -7.2 4.2 Germany 1.1 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.6 -2.2 -11.3 -4.0 -3.9 -5.0 3.2 -5.4 3.5 Spain 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7 2.0 -4.2 -21.6 -9.0 -9.1 -11.0 5.6 -11.1 5.9 France 1.8 1.8 1.6 0.8 1.5 -5.7 -18.8 -3.9 -5.0 -8.3 5.5 -9.0 5.5 Italy 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.3 -5.6 -18.1 -5.1 -6.6 -8.8 3.4 -9.2 3.0 Bulgaria 4.2 3.8 3.3 3.1 3.7 2.3 -8.6 -5.2 -3.8 -4.9 2.7 -4.0 4.1 Croatia 4.0 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.9 0.3 -15.5 -10.0 - -8.9 5.3 -9.0 6.0 Hungary 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.0 4.6 1.9 -13.7 -4.8 -4.3 -5.3 4.0 -6.1 3.9 Poland 5.3 4.7 4.4 3.9 4.5 1.9 -8.0 -1.8 -2.8 -2.8 3.1 -3.6 4.6 Romania 5.4 3.6 3.4 4.4 4.1 2.6 -10.2 -5.6 -1.7 -5.0 3.8 -4.8 4.6 Source: Eurostat, percentage change compared with the same quarter of the previous year - seasonally adjusted data, European Commission, Winter 2021 Economic Forecast, World Economic Outlook – January 2021, IMF Turnover from market services provided mainly to enterprises increased in December 2020 in Romania compared to the same period of the previous year by 11.7% as gross series, and by 9.4% as seasonally adjusted series. The highest increase was registered in the activities of information services and information technology (+22.0%) followed by the transport activities (+15.2%), the activities in film production, video, television programs, broadcasting and transmission of programs (+12.0%), the communications activities (+10.7%) and other services provided mainly to enterprises (+6.5%). The annual rate of CPI inflation stood at 2.99% in January 2021 in Romania, a higher value compared to December 2020 (+2.06%). The increases in prices of non-food goods (3.25%) and food goods (2.88%) had the most significant contribution to the annual inflation rate. In Romania, the industrial production increased by 2.6% as gross series and by 1.6% as seasonally adjusted series in December 2020 compared to December 2019. The most significant increases were recorded by the manufacturing industry (+2.8%) and the production and supply of electricity and heat, gas, hot water and air conditioning (+3.8%). The most affected industrial sector was the extractive industry (-3.8%: gross series). The volume of construction works increased in Romania by 12.6% as gross series, respectively by 16.5% as seasonally adjusted series in December 2020 compared to the similar period of the previous year. The most significant increases were registered by the volume of capital repair works (+24.2%), followed by new construction works (+19.0%), while the maintenance and current repairs decreased by 8.6%. By construction objects, the volume of engineering construction works increased by +22.5% and the residential buildings recorded an increase of +14.5% as gross series, while non-residential buildings decreased by 0.7%. Page 2 / 26 The size of the banking vs. non-banking financial sector The assets of the Romanian banking and non-banking financial markets (% of GDP) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3-2020 Banking financial system (% GDP) 60.53% 58.59% 56.18% 60.24% 51.09% 50.34% 52.04% 53.37% 55.20% Non-banking financial system (% GDP) 11.69% 11.74% 12.21% 13.75% 11.53% 12.57% 11.39% 12.57% 13.00% Collective Investment Undertakings 5.89% 5.80% 5.43% 5.70% 4.15% 4.39% 3.48% 3.85% 3.78% Private Pension Funds 3.01% 3.64% 4.32% 5.44% 5.21% 6.09% 5.83% 6.53% 6.94% Insurance Companies 2.79% 2.30% 2.47% 2.61% 2.16% 2.09% 2.07% 2.19% 2.28% Evolution of nonbanking system's assets (% of GDP) 8.00% 6.94% 7.00% 6.53% 6.09% 5.89% 5.80% 5.70% 5.83% 6.00% 5.43% 5.44% 5.21% 5.00% 4.39% 4.32% 4.15% 3.85% 3.78% 4.00% 3.64% 3.48% 3.01% 3.00% 2.79% 2.47% 2.61% 2.30% 2.19% 2.28% 2.16% 2.09% 2.07% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 T1 - 2020 T2-2020 T3-2020 Collective Investment Undertakings Private Pension Funds Insurance Companies Source: NBR, NIS,FSA Page 3 / 26 Current trends and headlights on Romanian markets Evolution of local stock indices 16.00% Romanian stock indices evolution in 2021 (30.12.2020 = 100) 14.00% 12.00% Date BET BET-BK BET-FI BET-NG BET-TR 10.00% 2/18/2021 6.23% 7.15% 6.78% 11.58% 6.24% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% Date BET-XT BET-XT-TR BETPlus ROTX 2.00% 2/18/2021 6.28% 6.30% 6.30% 5.75% 0.00% -2.00% 1/5/2021 1/7/2021 1/9/2021 2/2/2021 2/4/2021 2/6/2021 2/8/2021 1/29/2021 2/16/2021 1/11/2021 1/13/2021 1/15/2021 1/17/2021 1/19/2021 1/21/2021 1/23/2021 1/25/2021 1/27/2021 1/31/2021 2/10/2021 2/12/2021 2/14/2021 2/18/2021 BET BET-BK BET-FI BET-NG BET-TR BET-XT BET-XT-TR BETPlus ROTX Source: BSE; FSA calculations Equities traded value on BSE (EUR) 180,000,000 160,000,000 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0 1/5/2020 2/4/2020 3/5/2020 4/4/2020 5/4/2020 6/3/2020 7/3/2020 8/2/2020 9/1/2020 1/9/2021 2/8/2021 1/15/2020 6/23/2020 1/25/2020 2/14/2020 2/24/2020 3/15/2020 3/25/2020 4/14/2020 4/24/2020 5/14/2020 5/24/2020 6/13/2020 7/13/2020 7/23/2020 8/12/2020 8/22/2020 9/11/2020 9/21/2020 10/1/2020 1/19/2021 1/29/2021 2/18/2021 11/30/2020 10/11/2020 10/21/2020 10/31/2020 11/10/2020 11/20/2020 12/10/2020 12/20/2020 12/30/2020 Page 4 / 26 Macroeconomic background in Romania: development of the real sector, inflation and labor market Evolution of government debt (% of GDP) The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 euro area was 8.3%, while the EU unemployment rate was 7.5% in December 2020, values similar to those Italy 134.4 136.0 137.5 136.8 134.7 137.6 149.3 154.2 recorded in the previous month.
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