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Amoeba Sales Reform Is Heading in the Right Direction, “Accumulate”

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Amoeba Sales Reform Is Heading in the Right Direction, “Accumulate” 股 票 研 [Table_Title] Company Report: Hengan International (01044 HK) Barney Wu 吴宇扬 究 (86755) 2397 6680 Equity Research 公司报告： 恒安国际 (01044 HK) [email protected] 11 December 2017 Amoeba[Table_Summary Sales] Reform is Heading in the Right Direction, “Accumulate” 阿米巴销售模式改革步入正轨, “收集” 公 Hengan held a reverse road show during 5-6 December 2017. We have seen [Table_Rank] improvement in upgrades to Hengan’s automated equipment which has raised Rating: Accumulate 司 Maintained production efficiency and saved in labor costs. After Hengan was included in the 报 National Brand Campaign, its exposure rate and reputation should be raised 评级： 收集 (维持) accordingly. Under the new Amoeba sales model, the Company’s Amoebas 告 achieved better performance due to sophisticated institutional rules. According to Company Report the Amoeba in Xiamen, the manager had more incentives to strive for higher 6[Table_Price-18m TP目标价] : HK$84.00 profit by boosting sales and optimizing operating expense. Revised from 原目标价: HK$70.00 New products are expected to be the major sales growth contributor. Share price 股价: HK$79.800 Hengan launched a new series, “Spa7ce”, to target young working women, as they have become the main purchasing power of high-end sanitary napkins. Besides, the Company has a plan to expand into the female caring market under Stock performance its classic brand Space 7. Authorizing the IP of its brand image of Space 7 to 股价表现 other companies will be another trail of Hengan’s promotion. New tissue 40.025.0 % of% return of return products such as the upgraded Tea Classical series, super mini packs with 20.0 licensed images of Minions, and Bamboo π series all achieved good growth. 30.0 证 15.0 We believe that Hengan’s innovation ability was previously underestimated, as 20.0 券 告 10.0 many of its new products have achieved success. Due to better prospects for 5.0 10.0 研 报 new products and controllable operating expense, we have revised up our 0.0 earnings forecasts for Hengan. Moreover, due to Hengan’s strong profitability 0.0 究 究 (5.0) and leading position in China’s hygiene market, we believe Hengan deserves a 报 (10.0)(10.0) 研 premium valuation. Therefore, we maintain the Company’s rating at (15.0) 告 “Accumulate” and raise TP to HK$84.00, which represents 23.2x 2017 PER, (20.0) 券 (20.0)Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 21.0x 2018 PER, and 19.6x 2019 PER. Equity Research Report HSI Hengan International 证 恒安在 2017 年 12 月 5 日-6 日举办反向路演。我们看到恒安在自动化设备升级方面的进步， (25.0) [Tab Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 其提高了生产效率和节约了劳工成本。在恒安被纳入国家品牌计划之后，其曝光率和声誉预 Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y le_I 计将相应地得到提高。在新的阿米巴销售模式之下，因为精细的制度设计，公司的阿米巴取 HSI Hengan International 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 得了更好的表现。根据厦门阿米巴的情况，阿米巴巴长有更多的动力去通过提高销量和优化 消nfo1 Abs. % 费用争取更高的利润。 1.1 15.8 31.0 费 绝对变动 % ] Rel. % to HS Index 新品预计将成为销售的主要贡献。恒安已经推出新的 Spa7ce 系列，目标是年轻的工作女性， 2.8 13.4 5.2 行 相对恒指变动 % 因为其已经成为了高端卫生巾的主要消费群体。除此之外，公司有计划用经典的七度空间的 Avg. Share price(HK$) 76.8 74.7 62.7 业 平均股价（港币） - Household Products Household 品牌进入女性护理市场。授权七度空间的品牌形象给其他公司将会是恒安品牌推广的另一尝 - Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 日 试。新的纸巾产品比如说升级版的茶语系列，小黄人品牌授权的超小装纸巾和竹 π 系列都取 用 得了不错的增长。 Sector 品 我们认为恒安的创新能力原来被低估，因为其很多新品都取得了成功。因为新产品更好的前景 以及受控费用，我们上调了恒安的盈利预测。此外因为恒安强劲的盈利能力和在中国卫生品 市场领先的市场地位，我们认为恒安应得相应的估值溢价。因此，我们维持公司“收集”评 级并上调目标价至 84.00 港币，相当于 23.2 倍，21.0 倍和 19.6 倍 2017 年，2018 年和 2019 Consumer 年市盈率。 [Tab Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 le_I 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (△ %) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) (%) (%) nfo2 2015A 18,663 3,260 2.670 4.6 25.0 11.979 5.6 1.740 2.6 22.6 中] 2016A 19,277 3,597 2.970 11.2 24.1 12.140 5.9 1.950 2.7 24.4 2017F 19,948 3,705 3.075 3.5 22.1 14.324 4.7 1.999 2.9 23.2 (01044 HK) (01044 恒外 2018F 21,010 4,104 3.406 10.8 19.9 14.831 4.6 2.214 3.3 23.4 安运 2019F 22,009 4,396 3.649 7.1 18.6 16.167 4.2 2.372 3.5 23.5 国 输 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 1,204.9 Major shareholder 大股东 Mr.Sze and Mr.Hui 39.5% 际 Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 96,151.0 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 60.5 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 3,222.8 FY17 Net gearing (%) FY17 净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 82.900 / 52.800 FY17 Est. NAV (HK$) FY17 每股估值（港元） 69.3 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Hengan International See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 [Table_PageHeader]Hengan International (01044 HK) Key Takeaways from Hengan International’s Reverse Road show ] 1 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Upgrades for automated equipment improved operating efficiency and saved in labor costs. We have seen great improvement in Hengan International’s (“Hengan” or “the Company”) two factories in Jinjiang with the installation of more automated equipment, including that of production, transportation, sorting and packaging. The Company has invested hugely in upgrading old equipment and optimizing production processes which requires new automated machines. For example, in the Company's plant of disposable sanitary products, Hengan has invested in robotic manipulators, costing RMB600,000 each, which can automatically sort and stack finished products. One robotic manipulator, which usually depreciates within 15 years 11 December 2017 (RMB40,000 per year), can replace two workers that are usually paid RMB60,000 annually. In order to avoid trouble, since half of its workers are native, Hengan has relocated extra workers to other positions instead of firing its employees and has ceased the hiring of new workers. Due to automatic upgrades in equipment and the improvement of production efficiency, the Company will have more idle capacity in old factories, which can be activated by lending to other companies. Hengan was included in CCTV's 2018 National Brand Campaign. The National Brand Campaign, launched by CCTV, aims to strengthen the influence of Chinese brands in global competition and to advertise the brands that can represent the country's image. Although the National Brand Campaign is actually CCTV's new bidding form for advertisers, National brand Campaign still has high standards to select clients. First, the enterprises need to belong to the national pillar industries or stable industries. Second, they must be in industry-leading positions. Third, products have to be of high quality,] with2 r thea M abilityt h tog representi R _ e l theb a T [ national image. Fourth, enterprises need to produce and sell in China and be widely accepted by Chinese consumers. According to the released data of 2017 National Brand Campaign, the lowest bidding prices for advertiser to be successfully included in the National Brand Campaign was more than RMB232 million. We guess that the advertising expense for Hengan should not be less than this number for this event. Despite the rise of new media, the position of CCTV in the advertisement market has been significantly challenged, its news and sports programs still hold strong positions in the advertisement market. After Hengan was included in the National Brand Campaign, not only can Hengan can use CCTV's rich advertising resources, but also the Company can be recognized by ordinary customers as a national brand authorized by CCTV. Targeting the young working female sanitary market. Hengan's sanitary napkins have achieved an absolutely dominating (01044 HK) position in the girls (15-25 years) sanitary market, as 85% of young girls choose Hengan's Space 7 (七度空间) as their first sanitary napkin product alongside the cute image of Space 7, which wins the affection of young girls. But Hengan holds 恒安国际 relatively weak position in the young working female sanitary market (25-35 years), especially in the female white collar market due to its younger age brand image and competition from foreign brands. In order to twist the adverse situation, Hengan launched a new series called "Spa7ce"; packaging is simple and has an elegant design, which targets the young working female market. As young working women have become the main purchasing power behind sanitary napkins, Hengan have put more effort into this market. In next few years, the new Spa7ce series will be one of the most important new products for Hengan to promote. The new Spa7ce series will be mostly distributed through modern channels and ecommerce platforms Hengan International since these are the main channels for young working women. The management expects that the new series has potential to be operated as an independent brand for working women. Figure-1: New Space 7 Series with the Characteristics of Figure-2: New Space 7 Series with the Characteristics of Cotton Soft Silk Soft Report Company Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 8 [Table_PageHeader]Hengan International (01044 HK) More plans on brand extension of Space 7. As Space 7 has become a renowned brand among female customers, Hengan has a plan to fully exploit Space 7 into a comprehensive brand which provides diversified feminine] 1 r a productsM t h fromg i femaleR _ e carl ingb a T [ products to beauty makeup. Given that Space 7 has a solid customer base in feminine product markets, its brand extension in related markets should be relatively naturally and smoothly recognized by customers.
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