Analytical Simulation of Dynamic Interdependency between Economy and Lotic Ecology at the Meandering River Basin Taj Sarker Institute Of Water And Flood Management BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY November, 2010 Analytical Simulation of Dynamic Interdependency between Economy and Lotic Ecology at the Meandering River Basin A Thesis By Taj Sarker In partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science in Water Resources Development Institute of Water and Flood Management BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY November, 2010 ii The thesis titled “Analytical Simulation of Dynamic Interdependency between Economy and Lotic Ecology at the Meandering River Basin” submitted by Taj Sarker, Reg No.: M0409282021, Session: April, 2009, has been accepted as satisfactory in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of M.Sc. in Water Resources Development on November 27, 2010. BOARD OF EXAMINERS …………………………………. Chairman (Dr. Anisul Haque) Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology …………………………………. Member (Dr. M. Shah Alam Khan) (Ex-Officio) Professor and Director Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology …………………………………. Member (Dr. Mashfiqus Salehin) Associate Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology …………………………………. Member (Dr. Munir Ahmed) (External) Executive Director Technological Assistance for Rural Advancement (TARA) 1 Purbachal Road, Northeast Badda, Dhaka-1212 iii CANDIDATE DECLARATION It is hereby declared that neither this thesis nor any part of it has been submitted elsewhere for the award of any degree or diploma. …………………………… Taj Sarker Reg No.: M0409282021 Session: April, 2009 iv DEDICATION All Respectable Teachers of IWFM, who provide an environment of study v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The author would like to express his sincere gratitude and deepest respect to his supervisor Dr. Anisul Haque, Professor, Institute of Water and Flood Management, BUET for his continuous guidance, valuable advice, constructive suggestion and encouragement throughout the study. The author realizes great opportunity to work with him and to come in contact with his profound knowledge and supervision. The author wishes to acknowledge valuable contribution from Dr. M. Shah Alam Khan, Professor and Director, IWFM for his sincere advice, support in reviewing the report and gracing necessary comments. He also likes to thank Dr. Masfiqus Salehin, Associate Professor, IWFM and Dr. Munir Ahmed, Executive Director, TARA for their guidance, kindly reviewing the draft report and bestowing valuable comments. Author also admits gratitude to Dr Munsur Rahman, Professor, IWFM for his continuous support from the initial stage of the study. The Author would like to express his solemn gratitude to Dr Dong Chen, Assistant Research Professor, Dessert Research Institute, Nevada, USA for his continuous support for the research. The author also shares his gratitude to Mr. Magfur Rahman, Upazila Fishery Officer, Ghior, Manikganj and Haran Chandra Halder, Secretary, Ghior Fishermen Cooperative Group, Ghior, Manikganj for their kind professional advice throughout the study. The author acknowledges BWDB, LGED, CEGIS, BBS, The Ghior Upazila Parishad and Upazilla Fisheries Department for providing valuable data, materials and suggestions. The author would like to thank Mrs Julekha Akhtar, Chairman, Mahadevpur Union Parishad, Shibalaya, Manikganj, Mr. AHM Shahidul Islam, Mr. Towhidul Islam Talukder, Mr. Kaisar Alam, Mr. Rashed Jalal, Mr. AHM Zahurul Islam, Mr. Delowar Rahman Khan, Mr. Shariful Islam Rabbi, Mr. Mahfuzur Rahman Shajib, Mr. Anis Sarwar Chaudhury, Mr. Abu Hena Mustafa Kamal Sikder, Mr. Sibly Sadik, Mr. Shahriar Rajib, Mr Golam Mostafa for their kind help during the research. The author acknowledges the staffs of the IWFM, BUET for their kind cooperation. Finally, the author feels honored to have completed the thesis under South Asian Water (SAWA) fellowship of the Crossing Boundaries (CB) project. Taj Sarker November, 2010 vi ABSTRACT Human beings consume lotic fish not only for self metabolic processes but also for trading purposes. Thus the potential of river for fish production does not solely depend on the characteristics of river. Meandering processes have hydrodynamic impacts on the habitation of lotic species. On the other hand livelihoods of capture fishers depend on the abundance of lotic fish in rivers. Accordingly the study was accomplished in the Kaliganga river and its basin at Ghior upazila in Manikganj district through interdisciplinary research methodology. Initially an eco-fluvial model was prepared using MATLAB 7.1 software by encoding flow, sediment transport and bank erosion models following the methodology of Chen and Duan (2006) for the Kaliganga river. Verification of the model was executed by comparing outcomes with those of Nagata et al. (2000). After identifying dynamic location of deeper pools near concave bank from model outcomes comparing with satellite images, the probability of habitation formation for indicator species Sperata aor (Ayre) was estimated on the basis of water level data. The outcomes were also compatible with outcomes at HEC EFM 2.0 software and LGED (2006) report. Though it was estimated that the Kaliganga river had potential for more fish production, the production could not cope up with population demand. Field survey identified that overconsumption significantly caused depletion of lotic fish. The study showed that overconsumption is resulted from indebted conditions or poor savings of capture fishers because of uncertainties in income, regular interest of loans though seasonally varied income, soaring up basic expenditures and social and institutional constraints. The study investigated into the livelihood of capture fishers. Their income was idealized the converted economic values of ecological resources and then distributed into the society by their consumption expenditures. Based on Keynesian hypothesis, an income consumption model using questionnaire survey data was prepared and the hypothesis for regression analysis was tested statistically in SPSS 12.0 software. The model exhibited that capture fishers have to spend at least BDT 409 even if they have no income. Moreover marginal propensity to saving (MPS) is only BDT 0.06 whereas marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 0.94. Though higher MPC indicated higher multiplier effect (16.67) in local economy, negligible MPS is threatening their sustenance in the long run. The sustainability of lotic fish, therefore, depends on the consumption manner of capture fishers and the sustenance of capture fishers depend on the availability of lotic fish. Obtaining such dynamic interdependency, the objectives of present research indicate that economics should be considered within ecological study for planning the sustainability of lotic ecosystem. vii CONTENTS Topics Page Board of Examiners iii DECLARATION iv DEDICATION v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT vi ABSTRACT vii CONTENTS viii LIST OF TABLES x LIST OF FIGURES xi ABBREVIATIONS xii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 01-04 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Objectives 2 1.3 Rationale 2 1.4 Limitations 3 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 05-21 2.1 Introduction 05 2.2 Lotic Ecology 05 2.3 Meandering Processes 10 2.3.1 Flow model 14 2.3.2 Sediment transport model 15 2.3.3 Bank erosion model 17 2.4 Ecological Economics 18 2.4.1 Keynesian model 19 2.4.2 Hypothesis formulation 20 CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY 22-31 3.1 Introduction 22 3.2 Analysis Procedures 22 3.3 Eco-f luvial Settings 25 3.4 Economic Settings 29 CHAPTER 4 STUDY AREA 32-49 4.1 Introduction 32 4.2 Location and Area 32 4.3 Geology 33 4.4 Climate 34 4.5 Hydrology 35 4.6 Flora and Fauna 40 4.7 Population 41 4.8 Livelihood Patterns 42 4.9 Dimension of Poverty 43 4.10 Infrastructures 43 4.11 Health 44 4.12 Education 44 4.13 Relevant Organizations 45 4.14 Statutory Provisions & Projects for Fishery 46 viii CHAPTER 5 SITUATION ANALYSIS 50-58 5.1 Introduction 50 5.2 Situation of Fishery 50 5.3 Situation of Fishers 54 5.4 Influencing Factors 56 CHAPTER 6 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 59-86 6.1 Introduction 59 6.2 Lotic Fish Habitation 59 6.2.1 Model preparation and verification 6.2.2 Model application 6.2.3 Statistical inferences on habitation 6.3 Capture Fishery Livelihood 77 6.3.1 Regression analysis 77 6.3.2 Hypothesis testing 79 6.4 Dynamic Interdependency 83 CHAPTER 7 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 87-90 7.1 Conclusion 87 7.2 Recommendations 89 REFERENCES 91 Appendix A Format of Survey on Fish Life Cycle 96 Appendix B Features of Indicator Species Sperata aor (Ayre) 97 Appendix C Format of Questionnaire Survey 99 Appendix D Format of Evaluation of Questionnaire Survey 102 Appendix E Agro-Ecological Zone of Bangladesh 105 Appendix F Some Endangered Fish at Ghior upazila 107 Appendix G Coordination among relevant Authorities 108 Appendix H Projects of the Department of Fisheries at Ghior upazila 112 Appendix I Different Types of Gears to Capture Fish 114 Appendix J Prices of Fish Varieties at Ghior Bazaar 115 Appendix K Script File of Meander Evolution Model at MATLAB 7.1 116 Software Appendix L Annual Maximum Water Level in the Kaliganga river 122 from 1986 to 2009 Appendix M Report Outcome from HEC EFM 2.0 Software 123 Appendix N Production of Fish from Different Sources in Bangladesh 124 from 1998-99 to 2008-09 ix LIST OF TABLES Table No Description Page No 4.1 Characteristics of AEZ at Ghior upazila