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2H17 Outlook Retail Blurring lines between online and offline channels Aiden Lee (82-2)3774-1708 [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents [Summary] Retail stocks to rebound in 2H 3 I. 1H17 review 4 II. Retail outlook: Sophisticated success formula 6 III. Outlook by format 16 IV. Investment strategy for 2H 21 V. Top Picks and stocks to watch 25 [Conclusion] Mega trends to persist for more than five year 31 [Summary] Retail stocks to rebound in 2H Retail stocks to rebound in 2H in line with revenue growth recovery (04.01=100) (%, 12-month MA) 300 15 KOSPI Steady de-rating due to: Distribution Sector Index (L) 1) Sluggish consumption, Dept. stores SSSG (YoY) (R) demographic changes Hypermarket SSSG (YoY) (R) 2) Growth of online channels 250 10 200 5 150 0 100 -5 50 In 2017, 1) Consumption is bottoming out, and retailers are better able to deal with demographic changes 2) Retailers have strengthened competitiveness in online channels 0 -10 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 1H17 review Retail plays fared well in • Among the 10 retail stocks in our universe, nine outperformed the KOSPI in 1H 1H • Although consumption remained weak, positive issues or valuation merits for individual companies pushed up share prices • Hyundai Department Store was the only underperformer, due to its high exposure to consumer sentiment and lack of favorable issues; a bottom-up approach is recommended until consumer sentiment recovers fully Nine retail stocks in Mirae Asset Daewoo’s universe outperformed the KOSPI in 1H (17.01=100) 160 BGF Retail Lotte Himart Shinsegae Emart Lotte Shopping CJO Shopping 150 GS Home Shopping KOSPI Hyundai Department Store 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.10 17.1 17.4 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. 1H17 review Share performances • Emart: Re-rating is underway based on strong channel and product competitiveness clearly diverged by • Lotte Himart and Shinsegae: Share prices rebounded on back of marked market share expansion company • Lotte Shopping: Share prices have displayed high volatility, due to issues related to the THAAD system deployment and Lotte Group’s decision to convert to a holding company structure • Among home shopping channels, CJ O Shopping and GS Homeshopping shares rebounded on earnings momentum and stronger shareholder-return policies, respectively • BGF Retail shares rebounded, aided by steady convenience store growth and stable profit expansion Emart, Shinsegae, and Lotte Himart stocks rebounded sharply Home shopping and BGF Retail stocks also rebounded (17.01=100) (17.01=100) 150 Lotte Himart Shinsegae Emart 150 BGF Retail CJO Shopping Lotte Shopping KOSPI GS Home Shopping KOSPI 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 80 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.10 17.1 17.4 16.1 16.4 16.7 16.10 17.1 17.4 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Retail outlook: Sophisticated success formula Sophisticated success • For traditional retailers, success has been largely determined by location and store development formula for retailers • Location is still the most important success factor for distribution channels for low-involvement products, such as hypermarkets and convenience stores • However, the ability of retailers to sell differentiated products (PL products, etc.) in various formats (channel diversification) is becoming increasingly important • The provision of seamless shopping experiences based on high-end digital technology has emerged as the essential factor for channel diversification Formula for factors in retailers’ success F Customer (Location + loss leaders) attraction 1) Diversification of channels 2) Product differentiation via sophisticated PL product offerings 3) Technology development Spread of omni-channel retailing Improvement in shopping experience via AI, VR, and IoT technologies Format diversification Reduced importance Sourcing of differentiated products of location Strengthening of digital shopping channel Different approaches to overseas expansion 6| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Retail outlook: Sophisticated success formula Retailers’ format • Department stores: Comprehensive retailers, operating online, outlet, duty-free, and offline shopping mall channels diversification efforts so • Hypermarkets: Operators of online stores, category killers, and warehouse-type stores far • TV home shopping channels: Entry into offline, as well as mobile and online, channels • Lotte Himart is making efforts to expand its foothold in the online channel, based on its success in the offline channel Retailers’ format diversification efforts have picked up since 2010 20002005 2010 2015 Home- Dept. stores shopping Outlets Lotte Hypermarkets Duty-free Convenience stores Shopping Supermarkets malls Dept. stores Outlets Downtown Shinsegae Online duty-free malls Shopping malls Convenience Hypermarkets Supermarkets 홈쇼핑Home stores shopping Warehouse Online (T-commerce)(티커머스) Emart type marts Shopping malls Dept. stores Hyundai Dept. Outlets Downtown Store duty-free 7| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Retail outlook: Sophisticated success formula New format • Online players’ attempt to secure offline footholds: Alibaba’s partnership with Suning, Amazon Books, Warby diversification trend Parker, Bonobos, etc. • 1) Expansion into the offline market, based on strength in the online space; and 2) provision of face-to-face services a weakness of online retailing Vertical integration of all retailing processes • Given that established offline stores’ entry into the online space should be much easier than vice versa, and that Korea has no dominant online players, like Amazon, offline retailers’ online penetration will likely accelerate Online players’ attempt to secure offline footholds Offline Online Consumers’ demand Distribution for product Store experience, Showroom center consulting, and direct product pick-up Product Product experience, experience, consulting, Purchase Delivery Purchase consulting, direct product direct product Offline or pick-up pick-up online purchase Consumer Consumer 8| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Retail outlook: Sophisticated success formula Onffline cases • Amazon Books: Attract loyal customers to offline stores; offline pricing the same as online pricing • Warby Parker: Allow customers to try wearing up to five different eyeglass frames; offline stores are aimed at lens production • Online menswear brands Bonobos and Stripes: Size measurement at offline stores (which serve as showrooms) • Lotte HiMart’s showroom-style stores: Tablet PCs available for product searches; lifestyle-oriented product display Lotte HiMart benchmarks Argos stores in UK Amazon Books Source: Google, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 9| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Retail outlook: Sophisticated success formula Onffline cases • Concerns: Will these stores just become simple showrooms? • Competitiveness comes from ability to lock in consumers that visit showrooms and make them buy products at online or offline stores • Question: Why do consumers go to the trouble of using both online and offline stores? • Online retailers can secure customer loyalty by providing price merits for them and then open offline stores • Consumers visit offline stores to make online purchases Offline stores that consumers visit to buy Warby Parker glasses Stripes provides size measure services before customers buy online online Source: Google, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 10| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Retail outlook: Sophisticated success formula Retailers starting to achieve economies of scale in online Monthly unique visitors of mobile apps ('000 persons) - Large retailers’ online malls: Top-line growth based on superior capital power 10,000 Three - Online retailers (including social commerce): Pursuing profitability types - Steadily growing open-market platform 9,000 11st Coupang 8,000 Tmonster Wemakeprice 7,000 Gmarket 6,000 Auction CJmall 5,000 GS SHOP Hmall 4,000 Lotte Homeshopping 3,000 Homeplus NS Shopping 2,000 Emart mall Interpark 1,000 Lotte.com Lotte Mart 0 12.01 12.07 13.01 13.07 14.01 14.07 15.01 15.07 16.01 16.07 17.01 SSG.com Source: KoreanClick, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 11| 2017 Outlook [Sector] Mirae Asset Daewoo Research II. Retail outlook: Sophisticated success formula 2000 2010 2015 [1st] [2nd] PC-online-based Mobile-based [3th] open-market retailers social commerce Entry of large retailers’ online malls retailers intensified price/delivery competition [4th] To pursue sustainable growth; Food market competition to mount Large retailers’ expansion into online channels Before Online channels: There were concerns that online channels could dent overall margins and even cannibalize online stores revenue. Ample room for large retailers to penetrate the fragmented domestic online retail market It is essential to provide consumers with a shopping environment that have no on-/offline limits Slowdown in offline growth After • Advantages of having offline stores: 1) Efficient management of fixed and variable costs, 2)
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