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The FT's First Annual Awards for the Top Equity Analysts and Brokerages

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The FT's First Annual Awards for the Top Equity Analysts and Brokerages WORLD’S TOP ANALYSTS FINANCIAL TIMES SPECIAL REPORT | Friday May 16 2008 www.ft.com/topanalysts2008 Their stock is high The FT's first annual awards for the top equity analysts and brokerages around the world, in collaboration with StarMine 2 FINANCIAL TIMES FRIDAY MAY 16 2008 World's Top Analysts In This Issue Celebrating the achievements of the best analysts in the world The Financial Times is delighted to be highlights some significant trends and employs a methodology respected launching its first annual awards for the pinpointed by the data. Yet more and widely used by investment banks top equity analysts and brokerages information can be found on our website and fund managers around the world. around the world, in collaboration with at www.ft.com/topanalysts2008. Top quality research is very valuable ± StarMine, the research analytics The FT and StarMine have literally so for those who make company. collaborated in the past on some investment decisions based on it ± and This special report gives details of the regional analysts' awards, but this year we are delighted to be celebrating the awards, which were presented to we are taking the partnership global. achievements of our winners. winners at a dinner at the New York StarMine pioneered the quantitative Martin Dickson Stock Exchange last night. It also measurement of research performance Deputy Editor, Financial Times Why there's gold in Goldman TOP BROKER The broker has won the admiration of its peers over the past year for its ability to navigate a credit crisis that has made predicting the behaviour of markets such a lottery for others Resurgence of research Page 4 Tools of the trade HOW THEY DO IT brings fresh challenges The weapons in the equity analysts' armoury include luck, astute judgment, clever OVERVIEW Winning firms worldwide* modelling, visiting department stores and Global jumping on aircraft Francesco Page 8 Guerrera, Chris Goldman Sachs 41 Hughes and Aline Merrill Lynch 39 Introduction van Duyn on the THE FT/STARMINE GLOBAL AWARDS Citigroup 38 Top Global Broker: Goldman Sachs tough new world Top analyst: Jim Parker, of Raymond James for equity analysts Credit Suisse 37 Tips from the top analysts, Pages 2-9 JPMorgan 31 hen I see clients The regions these days, I Europe THE FT/STARMINE GUIDE TO THE TOP 10 need to bring in STOCK PICKERS, BROKERAGES, AND EARNING a psychologist’s Exane BNP Paribas 11 ESTIMATORS Wcouch more than my spread- US: Pages 10-15 sheets.” Citigroup 10 Developed Europe: Pages 16-19 The quip, sighed by an Asia: Pages 20-23 analyst at the end of a one- Goldman Sachs 10 week round-the-world trip packed with meetings with fund managers, sums up the There's more on FT.com Asia BIOGRAPHIES AND STOCK PICKS see-sawing emotions of The full report is available online along with research specialists during Credit Suisse 10 the current financial turmoil. extended biographies of all of the analysts On the one hand, analysts Citigroup 9 and their stock picks for 2008, and there are find their services to be in downloadable pdf versions of all the tables in high demand, especially for Merrill Lynch 8 this Special Report individuals and brokerage www.ft.com/topanalysts2008 houses, such as those recog- nised in the 2008 FT/ US StarMine awards published today, that have delivered Goldman Sachs 24 Front page illustration: Greg Meeson valuable insights to clients. But at the same time, the Merrill Lynch 23 choppy economic conditions and the state of deep freeze in Citigroup 19 Contributors many markets have taken analysts out of their spread- Credit Suisse 19 Chris Hughes Robin Kwong sheet-based comfort zone, Investment Banking Hong Kong Correspondent forcing them to make bold Correspondent calls while relying on con- Andrew Baxter stantly-changing information. Francesco Guerrera Special Reports Writer First, the good news. As US Finance & Business and Commissioning Editor the credit squeeze has put World’s Top Editor investors’ nerves and portfo- Sarah O'Connor lios under severe strain, Broker Anuj Gangahar FT Contributor research has experienced a US Markets resurgence in importance Correspondent Rod Newing that looked unlikely after the 2008 FT Contributor Enron-era research scandals. * Number of awards won across all Aline van Duyn After Wall Street firms’ regional and industry catagories US Markets Editor Steven Bird decision in 2002 to pay $1.4bn Designer to settle a case brought by FT Graphic Hal Weitzman then New York state attor- Source: StarMine Chicago Correspondent Katie Carnie ney-general Eliot Spitzer, the Picture Editor debate was “whether there is need for experienced sell-side when the capital markets of last year, it brought with Justin Baer any value in research”, says analysts who have seen the were a lot easier to interpret. it a sharp rise in volatility US Business Reporter For advertising details, Tom Schmidt, head of equity markets go through difficult Back then, market volatil- and new market dynamics. contact: Hope Kaye and derivative research for periods,” says Mr Schmidt. ity was low and while some The turmoil has meant Jeremy Lemer phone +1 212 641 6548 the Americas at JP Morgan. But the very conditions sectors were doing especially that equity analysts had to US Markets Reporter [email protected] or Now, he says, the question is that have given research well, being right about an be especially agile in gauging Tim Hart phone +1 212 “how much value” is in it. new-found prominence have individual stock was still the prospects of the stocks Justine Lau 641 6554 “In the past six to nine also made the analyst’s job more important than being they covered and have been Hong Kong Correspondent [email protected] months, the markets have more difficult. Many stock clever about sectors. required to place companies’ been in uncharted territory pickers look back wistfully to But when the credit performance in sector- and Fax +1 212 641 6544 and there has been a clear the first half of 2007 as a time squeeze began in the middle economy-wide contexts. FINANCIAL TIMES FRIDAY MAY 16 2008 3 World's Top Analysts Andrew Pitt, global head of “Their greater degree of sales service and corporate could lead to a structural research at Citigroup, says compliance has cut them off access. About a quarter of change in the industry, with the best portfolio managers from market intelligence. that was spent to pay for many experienced stock pick- of the past four years have The bulge bracket also analysts’ service. Only ers striking out on their own. been those who made big attracts more ‘me-too’ ana- slightly less, about 20 per “As analysts are let go, the calls on individual stocks, lysts who produce formulaic cent, of spending was made highly fragmented research and that remained true until research,” he says. “[Inde- to provide corporate access, markets will probably July 2007. pendent firms] are just which offers investors the become even more frag- “The conditions in the first clearer about what analysts chance to meet company mented,” says Patrick Shea, half of last year were such can do.” management teams. executive director of the that analysts were adding a Citi’s Mr Pitt says the suc- But if institutional inves- Investorside Research Asso- lot of value with individual cess of many of Europe’s tors and hedge funds con- ciation, which represents stock calls, but in the past local firms is largely a func- tinue to experience tough independent analysts. six to nine months, the driv- tion of their traditional domi- markets, suffer large losses If the financial crisis con- ers have become more sector- nance in the coverage of and face tighter budgets, tinues to take its toll, there specific.” small- and mid-cap compa- they may decide to spend could be a lot more couches, The analysts that did well nies, whose share prices are less on research. The laying and a lot more spreadsheets, last year were those who driven to a greater degree by off of hundreds of analysts in the waiting rooms of large were “fleet of foot” and were stock-specific factors. from large investment banks fund managers. Hot stock: solar cell maker Q-Cells AFP capable of modifying their “The local firms have good calls in response to a more access to smaller companies, volatile market, Mr Pitt says. and they can drive interest However, a striking feature in those names,” he says. of the StarMine results is Regardless of the size of that the US and European their employer and the scope analysts who performed best of their coverage, analysts in the changing markets of appear to agree on the priori- 2008 were less likely to be ties for the next few months. from “bulge-bracket” invest- As the liquidity squeeze ment banks that have the continues to dictate the per- most financial muscle. formance of both companies In Europe, for example, six and markets, research spe- of the top 10 earnings fore- cialists will have to focus on casters and eight of the top big themes, such as the fate 10 stock pickers came from of the US housing market, independent regional firms, commodity prices and often covering medium and growth prospects in emerg- small cap companies. ing economies. Indeed, Europe’s top five But there will also be con- stock pickers came from CA tinued investor demand for Cheuvreux, KBC Securities, the demystifying of the com- Natixis Securities, Carnegie plex financial instruments Investment Bank and Öhman Fondkommission. Cheuvreux’s Philipp Trying to gauge the Bumm, rated Europe’s best stock picker, earned his sta- pace of any decline tus with bold calls on in earnings growth Q-Cells, the German solar panel company, and the will be a central renewable energy companies preoccupation CropEnergies and Conergy.
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