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The United States Dominates Global Investment Banking: Does It Matter for Europe?

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The United States Dominates Global Investment Banking: Does It Matter for Europe? BRUEGEL POLICY CONTRIBUTION ISSUE 2016/06 MARCH 2016 THE UNITED STATES DOMINATES GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANKING: DOES IT MATTER FOR EUROPE? CHARLES GOODHART AND DIRK SCHOENMAKER Highlights • In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the market share of US investment banks is increasing, while that of their European counterparts is declining. We present evidence that US investment banks are on the verge of taking over pole position in European investment banking. Meanwhile, since 2015, Chinese investment banks have overtaken American and European investment banks in the Asia-Pacific market. • Credit rating agencies and investment banks are the gatekeepers of the capital markets. The European supervisory institutions can effectively supervise the European operations of these US-managed players. On the political side, we suggest that the European Commission should continue to view its, albeit declining, banking industry as a strategic sector. The Commission, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England should jointly develop a strategic agenda for the EU-US Regulatory Dialogue. • Finally, corporates rely on investment banks to issue new securities. We recommend that the big European corporates should cherish the (few) remaining European Telephone investment banks, by giving them at least one place in otherwise US- +32 2 227 4210 dominated banking syndicates. That could help to avoid complete dependence on US [email protected] investment banks. www.bruegel.org Charles Goodhart is Emeritus Professor at the Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics. Dirk Schoenmaker ([email protected]) is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel and Professor of Banking and Finance at Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University. The authors are grateful to Elena Vaccarino, Pia Huettl and Uuriintuya Batsaikhan at Bruegel for excellent research assistance, and to colleagues at Bruegel and various informed contacts for their insights during the writing of this paper. BRUEGEL POLICY CONTRIBUTION THE UNITED STATES DOMINATES GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANKING: DOES IT MATTER FOR EUROPE? 02 THE UNITED STATES DOMINATES GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANKING: DOES IT MATTER FOR EUROPE? CHARLES GOODHART AND DIRK SCHOENMAKER 1 INTRODUCTION Europe’s banks are in retreat from playing a global will leave the five US ‘bulge-bracket’ banks, investment banking role. This should not be a sur - (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Cit- prise. It is an, often intended, consequence of the igroup and Bank of America Merrill Lynch) as the regulatory impositions of recent years, notably of sole global investment banks left standing. the ring-fencing requirements of the Vickers The most likely result is a four-tier investment Report (2011) and the ban on proprietary trading banking system. by Liikanen (2012), but also including the enhanced capital requirements on trading books The first tier will consist of these five US global and other measures. The main concern is that a giants. The second tier will consist of strong medium-sized European country, such as the regional players, such as Deutsche Bank, Barclays United Kingdom or Switzerland, or even a larger and Rothschild in Europe and CITIC in the Asia- country like Germany, let alone a tiny country like Pacific region. HSBC is in between, with both Euro- Iceland or Ireland, would find a global investment pean and Asia-Pacific roots. The third tier consists bank to be too large and too dangerous to support, of the national banks’ investment banking arms. should it get into trouble 1. So, one of the intentions They will service (most of) the investment banking of the new set of regulations was to rein back the needs of their own corporates and public sector scale of European investment banking to a more bodies, except in the case of the very biggest and supportable level. most international institutions (which will want global support from the US banks) or in cases of The European Union, of course, has a much larger complex, specialist advice. Examples of this third scale than its individual member countries. If the tier are Australian and Canadian banks, which sup- key issue is the relative scale of the global (invest - port their own corporates and public sector bodies ment) bank and state that might have to support without extending into global investment banking. it, could a Europe-based global investment bank The fourth tier consists of small, specialist, advi- be possible 2? We doubt it, primarily because the sory and wealth management boutiques. EU is not a state. It does not have sufficient fiscal competence. Even with the European banking Why should it matter if in all the European coun- union and European Stability Mechanism, the tries, the local banks’ investment banking activi- limits to the mutualisation of losses, eg via deposit ties should retrench to this more limited local role? insurance, mean that the bulk of the losses would After all, there are few claims that Australia and still fall on the home country (Pisani-Ferry and Canada have somehow lost out by not participat- Wolff, 2012). Moreover, there would be intense ing in global investment banking. We review the rivalry over which country should be its home arguments in section 4. Before doing so, we take a 1. See for example com - mentary by Martin Wolf in country, and concerns about state aid and the closer look at the investment banking market in the Financial Times and establishment of a monopolistic institution. While Europe. Section 2 investigates the development other recent coverage: the further unification of the euro area might, in of the relative market shares of US and European Financial Times (2015a, due course, allow a Europe-based global invest - investment banks over time. It appears that the US 2015b), Gapper (2015), ment bank to emerge endogenously, we do not investment banks are about to surpass their Euro- Oudéa (2015) and T he Economist (2015). expect it over the next half-decade or so. pean counterparts in the European investment 2. As suggested for example banking market. Section 3 examines how the US by Financial Times So the withdrawal of European banks from a global investment banks operate in Europe. We find a (2015a). investment banking role is likely to continue. That typical pattern of a large London head office, BRUEGEL POLICY THE UNITED STATES DOMINATES GLOBAL INVESTMENT BANKING: DOES IT MATTER FOR EUROPE? CONTRIBUTION 03 where banks locate their financial experts, includ - most placements are done on a best-efforts basis; ing traders, and small salesforces in major Euro - only rights issues are still underwritten by the pean capitals. We discuss the policy implications investment banks. Corporates pay for quality and in section 5. reputation, which are the key ingredients for an investment bank’s success. 2 THE RISE OF US AND DECLINE OF EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANKS As both US capital markets and US corporates are by far the world’s biggest, it is no surprise that US 2.1 The function of investment banks investment banks are leaders in global invest - ment banking. However, US investment banks on Investment banks play a key role in financial mar - Wall Street have close ties with the US government kets by bringing together the suppliers of capital in Washington DC, as witnessed during the global (ie investors) and those that require capital (ie financial crisis. In this sector, the US Congress can corporates, governments and households). In this easily pass new laws with extra-territorial reach way, investment banks are the gatekeepers of the (eg Sarbanes-Oxley). Next, we have seen EU capital markets union. The European Commis - episodes in which US banks and corporates were sion, which initiated the capital markets union acting on stringent orders from Washington (such project as part of its strategy for the financial as over SWIFT 4, Cuba, Iran). What if these orders sector, has therefore a keen interest in the proper turn against Europe? We leave that for Section 4. functioning of these gatekeepers from an eco - nomic perspective. But there is also a political 2.2 The market shares of US and European dimension to the role of investment banks, as in investment banks in Europe the case of credit rating agencies. Would it be acceptable for the EU to rely on US players, for While the US investment banks are the global lead - these important components of the financial ers, what is their share in the European invest - system? We return to this in section 4. ment banking market? The Thomson Reuters investment bank league tables rank investment On the demand side for capital, corporates make banks by market share. These tables typically up the largest group 3. The provision of corporate cover four major segments: M&A, equity, bonds finance is the traditional métier of investment and loans (ie syndicated loans). We have calcu - banks: helping customers raise funds on capital lated the weighted average of investment banking markets and giving advice on mergers and acqui - proceeds of the top 20 players across these four 3. Governments and other sitions (M&A). This may involve subscribing segments for Europe (ie the market share in each public sector bodies also investors to a security issuance, coordinating with segment is weighted by the relative size of that use investment banks to place their bonds in the bidders, negotiating with a merger target and liais - market segment in total investment banking capital markets (eg through ing with regulators (competition and financial reg - business). Global data are usually split into Amer - a system of primary ulatory authorities) and governments. One of the icas, EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), Asia- dealers). This is outside the main roles of investment banks in M&A is to estab - Pacific and Japan, but we have only EMEA data. scope of this lish fair value for the companies involved in the However, Europe comprises the vast majority of Policy Contribution.
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