Sir Richard Doll, Epidemiologist – a Personal Reminiscence with a Selected Bibliography
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What Statistics Can and Can't Tell Us About Ourselves | the New Yorker
What Statistics Can and Canʼt Tell Us About Ourselves | The New Yorker 2019-09-04, 1005 Books September 9, 2019 Issue What Statistics Can and Can’t Tell Us About Ourselves In the era of Big Data, we’ve come to believe that, with enough information, human behavior is predictable. But number crunching can lead us perilously wrong. By Hannah Fry September 2, 2019 https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/09/09/what-statistics…3&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-f791742ba3-42227231 Page 1 of 15 What Statistics Can and Canʼt Tell Us About Ourselves | The New Yorker 2019-09-04, 1005 Making individual predictions from collective characteristics is a risky business. Illustration by Ben Wiseman 0"00 / 23"27 Audio: Listen to this article. To hear more, download Audm for iPhone or Android. arold Eddleston, a seventy-seven-year-old from Greater Manchester, H was still reeling from a cancer diagnosis he had been given that week https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/09/09/what-statistics…3&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-f791742ba3-42227231 Page 2 of 15 What Statistics Can and Canʼt Tell Us About Ourselves | The New Yorker 2019-09-04, 1005 when, on a Saturday morning in February, 1998, he received the worst possible news. He would have to face the future alone: his beloved wife had died unexpectedly, from a heart attack. Eddleston’s daughter, concerned for his health, called their family doctor, a well-respected local man named Harold Shipman. He came to the house, sat with her father, held his hand, and spoke to him tenderly. -
Note for the Record: Consultation on Clinical Trial Design for Ebola Virus Disease (EVD)
Note for the record: Consultation on Clinical Trial Design for Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) A group of independent scientific experts was convened by the WHO for the purpose of evaluating a proposed clinical trial design for investigational therapeutics for Ebola virus disease (EVD) during the current outbreak, 26 May 2018 Experts Sir Michael Jacobs (Chair), Dr Rick Bright, Dr Marco Cavaleri, Dr Edward Cox, Dr Natalie Dean, Dr William Fischer, Dr Thomas Fleming, Dr Elizabeth Higgs, Dr Peter Horby, Dr Philip Krause, Dr Trudie Lang, Dr Denis Malvy, Sir Richard Peto, Dr Peter Smith, Dr Marianne Van der Sande, Dr Robert Walker, Dr David Wohl, Dr Alan Young. There are many pathogens for which there is no proven specific treatment. For some pathogens, there are treatments that have shown promising safety and activity in the laboratory and in relevant animal models but have not yet been evaluated fully for safety and efficacy in humans. In the context of an outbreak characterized by high mortality rates, the Monitored Emergency Use of Unregistered Interventions (MEURI)1 framework is a means to provide access to promising but unproven investigational therapies, but is not a means to evaluate reliably whether these compounds are actually beneficial to patients or not. In light of the current Ebola Zaire DRC outbreak with a high case fatality rate, the WHO convened an independent expert panel to evaluate investigational therapeutics for MEURI use2, and that panel affirmed the importance of moving to appropriate clinical trials as soon as possible. Against this background, a clinical trial design has been proposed with a view to generating reliable evidence about safety and efficacy. -
Richard Doll
2825 Obituary: Richard Doll Sir Richard Doll died earlier this year at age 92. The most The studies by Doll are bold and original science. They celebrated epidemiologist of the 20th century, Doll is best represent an important part of the foundation of modern known for his work on smoking and lung cancer, but there was population-based chronic disease research. By the early 1960s, so much more to his career. they constituted adequate evidence for public health action to His father was a general practitioner in London, and it was reduce tobacco smoking; in 1964, the U.S. Surgeon General’s from St. Thomas’s that Doll himself graduated in Medicine in first report on the adverse health consequences of tobacco was 1937. Even as a student, he showed his interest in epidemi- published. Today, they continue to remind us how carefully ologic and statistical tools, publishing on the need for proper crafted observational studies can advance scientific knowledge analysis and statistical testing in population studies of disease. regarding social and health issues that are not amenable to Later, Doll served in the Royal Medical Corps in France and experimentation on human populations. the Middle East throughout the Second World War. He began Asbestos. By the early 1930s, work in the asbestos products his research career at the Middlesex Hospital, studying industry in Britain was known to increase the risk of a occupational factors in the development of peptic ulceration. sometimes fatal nonmalignant pulmonary disease, termed He married Dr. Joan Faulkner around this time, and it was she asbestosis. -
Whoseжlegacyжwillжreadersж Celebrateжthisжyear?
BMJ GROUP AWARDS •ЖReviewЖtheЖshortlistsЖforЖallЖcategoriesЖatЖhttp://bit.ly/aUWoE5 Sir George Alleyne •ЖListenЖtoЖtheЖawardsЖlaunchЖpodcastЖatЖbmj.com/podcasts A highly respected figure in global health, George Alleyne has played LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD a large part in tackling HIV and non-communicable disease and WhoseЖlegacyЖwillЖreadersЖ is an energetic promoter of health equality across the world. Currently the chancellor of the University celebrateЖthisЖyear? of the West Indies, Sir George is also the former director of the Pan Annabel FerrimanЖintroducesЖthisЖyear’sЖawardЖandЖ American Health Organization. Adrian O’DowdЖrevealsЖtheЖshortlistedЖcandidates Born in Barbados, he graduated in medicine from the University When Belgian senator Marleen Temmerman called on women in Belgium of the West Indies in 1957 and to refuse to have sex with their partners until the country’s politicians continued his postgraduate ended eight months of wrangling and formed a government, few people studies in the United Kingdom and effect on national economies. in the UK had heard of her. But readers of the BMJ were in the know and the United States. During more Sir George has served on various unsurprised. than a decade of original research, committees including the For Professor Temmerman, an obstetrician and gynaecologist, had he produced 144 publications in scientific and technical advisory won the BMJ Group’s Lifetime Achievement Award last April. In that case, scientific journals, which qualified committee of the World Health it was not for suggesting a “crossed leg strike” to end political deadlock him at just 40 years of age to be Organization Tropical Research (a solution advocated by the women of Greece in Aristophanes’ play appointed professor of medicine Programme and the Institute of Lysistrata) but for her services to women’s health in Belgium and Kenya. -
Access Pdf of Lancet Paper on Global Burden of Disease Here
Articles A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 Stephen S Lim‡, Theo Vos, Abraham D Flaxman, Goodarz Danaei, Kenji Shibuya, Heather Adair-Rohani*, Markus Amann*, H Ross Anderson*, Kathryn G Andrews*, Martin Aryee*, Charles Atkinson*, Loraine J Bacchus*, Adil N Bahalim*, Kalpana Balakrishnan*, John Balmes*, Suzanne Barker-Collo*, Amanda Baxter*, Michelle L Bell*, Jed D Blore*, Fiona Blyth*, Carissa Bonner*, Guilherme Borges*, Rupert Bourne*, Michel Boussinesq*, Michael Brauer*, Peter Brooks*, Nigel G Bruce*, Bert Brunekreef*, Claire Bryan-Hancock*, Chiara Bucello*, Rachelle Buchbinder*, Fiona Bull*, Richard T Burnett*, Tim E Byers*, Bianca Calabria*, Jonathan Carapetis*, Emily Carnahan*, Zoe Chafe*, Fiona Charlson*, Honglei Chen*, Jian Shen Chen*, Andrew Tai-Ann Cheng*, Jennifer Christine Child*, Aaron Cohen*, K Ellicott Colson*, Benjamin C Cowie*, Sarah Darby*, Susan Darling*, Adrian Davis*, Louisa Degenhardt*, Frank Dentener*, Don C Des Jarlais*, Karen Devries*, Mukesh Dherani*, Eric L Ding*, E Ray Dorsey*, Tim Driscoll*, Karen Edmond*, Suad Eltahir Ali*, Rebecca E Engell*, Patricia J Erwin*, Saman Fahimi*, Gail Falder*, Farshad Farzadfar*, Alize Ferrari*, Mariel M Finucane*, Seth Flaxman*, Francis Gerry R Fowkes*, Greg Freedman*, Michael K Freeman*, Emmanuela Gakidou*, Santu Ghosh*, Edward Giovannucci*, Gerhard Gmel*, Kathryn Graham*, Rebecca Grainger*, Bridget Grant*, -
Understanding Genetics: DNA, Genes, and Their Real-World Applications Parts I & II Professor David Sadava
Understanding Genetics: DNA, Genes, and Their Real-World Applications Parts I & II Professor David Sadava THE TEACHING COMPANY ® Table of Contents Understanding Genetics: DNA, Genes, and Their Real-World Applications Professor Biography..............................................................................................................................................iii Course Scope...........................................................................................................................................................1 Lecture One Our Inheritance...................................................................................................................................2 Lecture Two Mendel and Genes..............................................................................................................................4 Lecture Three Genes and Chromosomes................................................................................................................7 Lecture Four The Search for the Gene—DNA.......................................................................................................9 Lecture Five DNA Structure and Replication.......................................................................................................12 Lecture Six DNA Expression in Proteins..............................................................................................................14 Lecture Seven Genes, Enzymes, and Metabolism.................................................................................................17 -
Article the Effect of Lowering LDL Cholesterol on Vascular
Article The Effect of Lowering LDL Cholesterol on Vascular Access Patency: Post Hoc Analysis of the Study of Heart and Renal Protection William Herrington, Jonathan Emberson, Natalie Staplin, Lisa Blackwell, Bengt Fellstro¨m, Robert Walker, Adeera Levin, Lai Seong Hooi, Ziad A. Massy, Vladimir Tesar, Christina Reith, Richard Haynes, Colin Baigent, and Martin J. Landray on behalf of the SHARP Investigators Due to the number of contributing authors, Abstract the affiliations are Background and objectives Reducing LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with statin-based therapy reduces the risk of provided in the major atherosclerotic events among patients with CKD, including dialysis patients, but the effect of lowering Supplemental LDL-C on vascular access patency is unclear. Material. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) randomized Correspondence: Dr. Martin J. Landray, patients with CKD to 20 mg simvastatin plus 10 mg ezetimibe daily versus matching placebo. This study aimed to Clinical Trial Service explore the effects of treatment on vascular access occlusive events, defined as any access revision procedure, Unit and access thrombosis, removal of an old dialysis access, or formation of new permanent dialysis access. Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Results Among 2353 SHARP participants who had functioning vascular access at randomization, allocation to Department of Population Health, simvastatin plus ezetimibe resulted in a 13% proportional reduction in vascular access occlusive events (355 Richard Doll Building, [29.7%] for simvastatin/ezetimibe versus 388 [33.5%] for placebo; risk ratio [RR], 0.87; 95% confidence interval Old Road Campus, [95% CI], 0.75 to 1.00; P=0.05). -
A Cancer Control Interview With: Sir Richard Peto
CANCER CONTROL PLANNING A CANCER CONTROL INTERVIEW WITH: SIR RICHARD PETO Sir Richard Peto is Professor of Medical Statistics & Epidemiology at the University of Oxford, United Kingdom. In 1975, he set up the Clincial Trial Service Unit in the Medical Sciences Division of Oxford University, of which he and Rory Collins are now co-directors. Professor Peto's work has included studies of the causes of cancer in general, and of the effects of smoking in particular, and the establishment of large-scale randomised trials of the treatment of heart disease, stroke, cancer and a variety of other diseases. He has been instrumental in introducing combined "meta-analyses" of results from related trials that achieve uniquely reliable assessment of treatment effects. He was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society of London in 1989, and was knighted (for services to epidemiology and to cancer prevention) in 1999. Cancer Control: How should the global target of a 25% reduction country would die before they were 70; now it is 18%. in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 2025 be interpreted? Cancer Control: NCD advocates place great emphasis on the Sir Richard Peto: I would define “premature death” as death relative burden of non-communicable diseases compared with during the middle age range of 35 to 69 years. It’s not that communicable diseases. Are they right to do so? deaths after 70 don’t matter – I’m after 70 myself and I’m Sir Richard Peto: I don’t like these things that say “More still enjoying life – but if you are going to do things to reduce people die from NCDs than from communicable disease and NCDs then it is going to be to reduce NCD mortality in your therefore NCDs are more important”. -
A Kernel Log-Rank Test of Independence for Right-Censored Data
A kernel log-rank test of independence for right-censored data Tamara Fern´andez∗ Arthur Gretton University College London University College London [email protected] [email protected] David Rindt Dino Sejdinovic University of Oxford University of Oxford [email protected] [email protected] November 18, 2020 Abstract We introduce a general non-parametric independence test between right-censored survival times and covariates, which may be multivariate. Our test statistic has a dual interpretation, first in terms of the supremum of a potentially infinite collection of weight-indexed log-rank tests, with weight functions belonging to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) of functions; and second, as the norm of the difference of embeddings of certain finite measures into the RKHS, similar to the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) test-statistic. We study the asymptotic properties of the test, finding sufficient conditions to ensure our test correctly rejects the null hypothesis under any alternative. The test statistic can be computed straightforwardly, and the rejection threshold is obtained via an asymptotically consistent Wild Bootstrap procedure. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our testing procedure generally performs better than competing approaches in detecting complex non-linear dependence. 1 Introduction Right-censored data appear in survival analysis and reliability theory, where the time-to-event variable one is interested in modelling may not be observed fully, but only in terms of a lower bound. This is a common occurrence in clinical trials as, usually, the follow-up is restricted to the duration of the study, or patients may decide to withdraw from the study. -
STATISTICAL SCIENCE Volume 31, Number 4 November 2016
STATISTICAL SCIENCE Volume 31, Number 4 November 2016 ApproximateModelsandRobustDecisions..................James Watson and Chris Holmes 465 ModelUncertaintyFirst,NotAfterwards....................Ingrid Glad and Nils Lid Hjort 490 ContextualityofMisspecificationandData-DependentLosses..............Peter Grünwald 495 SelectionofKLNeighbourhoodinRobustBayesianInference..........Natalia A. Bochkina 499 IssuesinRobustnessAnalysis.............................................Michael Goldstein 503 Nonparametric Bayesian Clay for Robust Decision Bricks ..................................................Christian P. Robert and Judith Rousseau 506 Ambiguity Aversion and Model Misspecification: An Economic Perspective ................................................Lars Peter Hansen and Massimo Marinacci 511 Rejoinder: Approximate Models and Robust Decisions. .James Watson and Chris Holmes 516 Filtering and Tracking Survival Propensity (Reconsidering the Foundations of Reliability) .......................................................................Nozer D. Singpurwalla 521 On Software and System Reliability Growth and Testing. ..............FrankP.A.Coolen 541 HowAboutWearingTwoHats,FirstPopper’sandthendeFinetti’s?..............Elja Arjas 545 WhatDoes“Propensity”Add?...................................................Jane Hutton 549 Reconciling the Subjective and Objective Aspects of Probability ...............Glenn Shafer 552 Rejoinder:ConcertUnlikely,“Jugalbandi”Perhaps..................Nozer D. Singpurwalla 555 ChaosCommunication:ACaseofStatisticalEngineering...............Anthony -
The Impact of NMR and MRI
WELLCOME WITNESSES TO TWENTIETH CENTURY MEDICINE _____________________________________________________________________________ MAKING THE HUMAN BODY TRANSPARENT: THE IMPACT OF NUCLEAR MAGNETIC RESONANCE AND MAGNETIC RESONANCE IMAGING _________________________________________________ RESEARCH IN GENERAL PRACTICE __________________________________ DRUGS IN PSYCHIATRIC PRACTICE ______________________ THE MRC COMMON COLD UNIT ____________________________________ WITNESS SEMINAR TRANSCRIPTS EDITED BY: E M TANSEY D A CHRISTIE L A REYNOLDS Volume Two – September 1998 ©The Trustee of the Wellcome Trust, London, 1998 First published by the Wellcome Trust, 1998 Occasional Publication no. 6, 1998 The Wellcome Trust is a registered charity, no. 210183. ISBN 978 186983 539 1 All volumes are freely available online at www.history.qmul.ac.uk/research/modbiomed/wellcome_witnesses/ Please cite as : Tansey E M, Christie D A, Reynolds L A. (eds) (1998) Wellcome Witnesses to Twentieth Century Medicine, vol. 2. London: Wellcome Trust. Key Front cover photographs, L to R from the top: Professor Sir Godfrey Hounsfield, speaking (NMR) Professor Robert Steiner, Professor Sir Martin Wood, Professor Sir Rex Richards (NMR) Dr Alan Broadhurst, Dr David Healy (Psy) Dr James Lovelock, Mrs Betty Porterfield (CCU) Professor Alec Jenner (Psy) Professor David Hannay (GPs) Dr Donna Chaproniere (CCU) Professor Merton Sandler (Psy) Professor George Radda (NMR) Mr Keith (Tom) Thompson (CCU) Back cover photographs, L to R, from the top: Professor Hannah Steinberg, Professor -
International Agency for Research on Cancer 2014–2015 Sc/52/2 Gc/58/2
INTERNATIONAL AGENCY FOR RESEARCH ON CANCER 2014–2015 SC/52/2 GC/58/2 BIENNIAL REPORT 2014–2015 INTERNATIONAL AGENCY FOR RESEARCH ON CANCER LYON, FRANCE 2015 ISBN 978-92-832-1101-3 ISSN 0250-8613 © International Agency for Research on Cancer, 2015 150, Cours Albert Thomas, 69372 Lyon Cedex 08, France Distributed on behalf of IARC by the Secretariat of the World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Scientific Structure ............................................................................................................................................. 3 IARC Medals of Honour ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Section of Cancer Surveillance ......................................................................................................................... 7 Section of IARC Monographs ............................................................................................................................ 15 Section of Mechanisms of Carcinogenesis ..................................................................................................... 21 Epigenetics Group ........................................................................................................................................ 23 Molecular Mechanisms and Biomarkers