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1 Introduction INAUGURAL - DISSERTATION zur Erlangung der Doktorwürde der Naturwissenschaftlich-Mathematischen Gesamtfakultät der Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg Vorgelegt von: M. SC. Yuan Yao aus Hebei, VR China Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 03. Juni 2013 Thema The Water Situation of the Future Mega City "Urumqi" (NW-China) – Resources, Risk, Conservation and Management Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Olaf Bubenzer Prof. Dr. Dietfried Günter Liesegang Summary Urumqi is located in the remote center of the Eurasian continent. It is a future mega-city with rapid economic development and high population density in China's western interior. Urumqi's water resource problems are the main research objects in this thesis. Several models have been put forward to predict water demand in Urumqi and useful suggestions have been gathered to reduce water scarcity. In 2010, the average annual water resources of Urumqi were at 939.22 million m³ and the average per capita water resources were 387 m³, meaning that water resources are inadequate in Urumqi. The water consumption in Urumqi already exceeded the total amount of water resources. Furthermore, almost half of the wastewater is discharged directly into rivers and wasteland in Urumqi and as such, both surface water and groundwater are seriously polluted. Since there is also no reasonable water price system, the price of water is relative low which leads to weak awareness of water conservation. In addition, the high leakage rate of the pipe network and the backward technology of agricultural irrigation have resulted in serious water losses. In order to alleviate the scarcity of water resources and instead increase the number of resources, while at the same time improving water quality, wastewater in Urumqi and how it is reused of Urumqi was analyzed. Some suggestions about Urumqi's sewage and water reuse system were put forward. Moreover, various water scarcity assessment indexes were used to evaluate the water scarcity risk in Urumqi. Based on the results of a water scarcity risk assessment, the water scarcity decision model was built up by adopting the advanced Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology. The measures to reduce water scarcity include a.o. adjusting industrial structures, water conservation, using unconventional water resources, implementing economic regulation measures, controlling environmental safety, improving urban functions, and the interbasin transfer of water. According to the results of the analysis of water scarcity decisions, major solutions to resolve the problem of water scarcity were identified, with water conservation as the most important step in reducing water scarcity in Urumqi. In addition, a water conservation index system was set up based on the water-saving evaluation standard in China to change the present situation of serious wastage of water resources in Urumqi. This index system can be used to reflect the problems (e.g. high leakage rate of the water supply pipe network, low water price, low conveyance efficiency of irrigation canal system, low rate of recycled industrial water and water conservation awareness) and the potentials of water conversation in each sector Summary (agriculture, industry and domestic). The results of the index system show that there is a large potential of agricultural water conservation, and it can be achieved by several measures, such as improving the water efficiency of the canal system, promoting the usage of advanced water conservation irrigation techniques and increasing the water price for agricultural irrigation. In addition, the "quota method" and the "grey model" (used to analyze the system, which related to time includes both certain and uncertain information) were used to predict water demand. The "quota method" predicts the water demand based on indicators of socio- economic development and the water use quota in each sector. The "grey model" was constructed according to the time series of agricultural, industrial, domestic and total water consumption in Urumqi from 2003 to 2010 by creating a sequence of first-order accumulated generating operation and differential equations. The predictions that were calculated by using the grey model show that agriculture will still be the biggest user of water in 2015. Therefore, changing the agricultural system and improving the efficiency of agricultural water use are the best ways to realize the rational allocation and sustainable use of water resources in Urumqi. In order to effectively manage Urumqi's water resources and to integrate the water demand prediction model and the water scarcity decision model, the water resources management and information system for Urumqi was built up by using various technologies (database, Web and GIS server). This system not only reflects the current situation of Urumqi's water resources but also helps users to make decisions for reducing water scarcity. Zusammenfassung Die Stadt Urumqi befindet sich im Zentrum des Eurasischen Kontinents. Sie ist aufgrund des rapiden wirtschaftlichen Wachstums und der hohen Bevölkerungsdichte eine zukünftige Megastadt in Chinas westlichen Hinterland. Urumqis Wasserressourcen und damit zusammenhängende Probleme sind Haupt unter suchungs gegenstand dieser Arbeit. Modelle zur Analyse der Situation der Wasser ressourcen werden verwendet, um den Wasserbedarf für Urumqi vorherzusagen und sowie hilfreiche Vorschläge vorgebracht, um die Wasserknappheit zu reduzieren. In 2010 betrug die durchschnittliche Menge an Wasserressourcen in Urumqi 939,22 Millionen m³ und die durchschnittliche Verfügbarkeit pro Kopf 387 m³. Die Wasserverfügbarkeit in Urumqi ist daher unzureichend, außerdem überschreitet der Wasserverbrauch die insgesamt verfügbare Menge an Wasser. Desweiteren fließt fast die Hälfte des Abwassers direkt in Flüsse und Brachland in Urumqi und daher sind sowohl Oberflächenwasser als auch Grundwasser ernsthaft verschmutzt. Da der Wasserpreis nicht den Produktions- und Entsorgungskosten entspricht und ziemlich niedrig ist, ist auch das Bewusstsein für das Wassersparen sehr gering. Zusätzlich verursachen die hohe Leckagerate der Wasserleitungen und die rückständige Technologie in der Bewässerungslandwirtschaft ernsthafte Wasserverluste. Um die Wasserknappheit zu verringern und stattdessen die Menge an verfügbarem Wasser zu erhöhen, während gleichzeitig die Wasserqualität verbessert wird, wurde die Abwassersituation und die Nutzung geklärter Abwässer in Urumqi analysiert. Einige Vorschläge zur Verbesserung des System für Abwasser und Abwassernutzung in Urumqi werden vorgestellt. Weiterhin wurden verschiedene Indizes zur Bestimmung der Wasserknappheit verwendet, um das Risiko einer Wasserknappheit in Urumqi zu evaluieren. Basierend auf den Ergebnissen der Untersuchung wurde ein Entscheidungsmodell entwickelt, welches die Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-Methode verwendet und die Auswirkungen verschiedener Maßnahmen und Entscheidungen analysiert. Die betrachteten Maßnahmen umfassen u. a. die Anpassung der industriellen Strukturen, Wassersparen, Nutzung unkonventioneller Wasserressourcen, Einführung Zusammenfassung wirtschaftlicher Regulationsmechanismen, Überwachung der Umwelt, Verbesserung städtischer Funktionen und Wassertransfer zwischen Einzugsgebieten. Laut den Analyseergebnissen zu Entscheidungen bezüglich der Wasserressourcen wurden die wichtigsten Lösungsvorschläge für das Problem der Wasserknappheit identifiziert: Wassereinsparung und eine höhere Nutzungseffizienz sind die wichtigsten Schritte um die Wasserknappheit in Urumqi zu reduzieren. Zusätzlich wurde ein Indexsystem für Wassereinsparungen aufgesetzt basierend auf den Evaluationsstandards zum Wassersparen in China, um die aktuelle Situation und ernsthafte Verschwendung von Wasserressourcen in Urumqi zu reduzieren. Dieses Indexsystem kann verwendet werden, um die Probleme und Potenziale von Wassereinsparungen im Bezug auf Leckagerate, Wasserpreis, Transporteffizienz des Bewässerungssystems, Recyclingrate der geklärten Abwässer und Bewusstsein für das Wassersparen in den drei Sektoren Landwirtschaft, Industrie und Haushalte zu reflektieren. Die Ergebnisse des Indexsystems zeigen, dass großes Potenzial für Wassereinsparungen in der Landwirtschaft liegt. Die Einsparungen können erreicht werden durch verschiedene Maßnahmen wie die Verbesserung der Kanalsystems, Verwendung und Verbreitung fortschrittlicher wassersparender Bewässerungstechniken und Anpassung des Wasserpreises für die Bewässerungs landwirtschaft. Zusätzlich wurden die "Quoten-Methode" und ein "grey model" verwendet, um den Wasserbedarf vorherzusagen. Die "Quoten-Methode" basiert auf Indikatoren für die sozio- ökonomische Entwicklung sowie die Wassernutzungs-Quote in jedem Sektor. Das "grey model" wird verwendet um Systeme zu analysieren, für welche im Bezug zur Zeit sowohl sichere als auch unsichere Informationen vorhanden sind. Anhand der Zeitreihe für den Wasserverbrauch in Urumqi durch Landwirtschaft, Industrie und Haushalte und Gesamtwasserverbrauch für die Jahre 2003 bis 2010 wurden eine Reihe von Accumulated Generating Operations (AGOs) erster Ordnung und Differenzialgleichungen entwickelt. Die Vorhersagen, die mit dem "grey model" berechnet wurden, besagen, dass auch im Jahr 2015 die Landwirtschaft der größte Wasserverbraucher sein wird. Daher stellen Veränderungen des Agrarsystems und Verbesserungen der landwirtschaftlichen Wassernutzungseffizienz die besten Möglichkeiten dar, eine rationale Allokation und nachhaltige Nutzung der Wasserressourcen in Urumqi zu erreichen. Um ein effektives Management
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