Energy for Hawaii: Mandates, Facts & Best Options

Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD May 2011 Outline

Hawaii Mainland and Global Hawaii Hawaii

First the bad news Then the bad news And finally the bad news Hawaii Electricity Price: Off the Chart… Hawaii Energy Data Trends Hawaii Energy Data Trends Hawaii Energy Data Trends Island Sustainability

Infra- Distance from Agriculture Annual GDP per Tourists per Electricity per Rank structure per CO 2 per capita nearest major area per available capita capita capita capita port capita water Better? ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ ↓↓↓ ↓↓↓ ↑↑↑ ↑↑↑ Papua & New 1st Bermuda Maui Iceland Iceland Madagascar Guernsey Greenland Guinea Western Netherlands & 2nd Guernsey Rhodes Guadalupe Comoros Australia Philippines Samoa Antilles

3rd Ireland Mallorca Australia Maui Greenland Corsica Iceland Japan

4th Iceland Corsica New Zealand Australia Haiti Mallorca New Zealand Australia

Solomon 5th Oahu Big Island Ireland Corsica Lesvos Big Island New Zealand Islands Sao Tome & 6th U.K. Guam Cyprus Guam Sri Lanka Madagascar Madagascar Principe US Virgin 7th Australia Big Island Bermuda Vanuatu UK Ireland Iceland Islands Antigua & Sao Tome & 8th Isle of Man Oahu New Zealand Sri Lanka Lesvos U.K. Bermuda Principe

9th Japan Bahamas Rhodes Oahu Cape Verde Cyprus Maui Sri Lanka

Saint Vincent 10th Mallorca Guernsey Grenada Japan Lesvos Vanuatu Ireland and the 17-Maui 14-Maui 13-Big Island 39-Oahu 40-Hawaii* 19- Maui Other rank of Hawaiian 18-Big Island 41-Big Island 21-Oahu Islands 41-Oahu 42-Maui 39-Oahu 26-Big Island Mainland and Global

Promises, promises New developments Nuclear Australian Coal Reduce Dependency on Petroleum Energy …

Fool me once same on you, Fool me twice shame on me, Fool me 8 times … am I a @#$% Idiot? Policies Come and Go, or Never Come Define “ CLEAN”

greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide hazardous chemicals like mercury and sulfur dioxide environmental hazards caused by mining coal or uranium, drilling for gas or plowing new fields to grow biofuel crops hazards of burning trash, demolition materials, ASR (auto shredder residue) Cheap Energy = Growth

Essentially the problem entrenched in our current economic system is that all our growth relies on natural resource extraction , and at some point, we will hit the wall in terms of limits. If we go on as we are, we will simply tap out all the natural resources available to us – Dr. Peter Victor, York University, author of Managing without Growth This does not apply to: Geothermal, Nuclear, Hydro, Trash, Algae- to -fuel, Solar, Wave … The real problem is that these are “fringe” One EV is roughly Equal to One Small House (KWh) Gone in the Wind (1 of 4)

WSJ, Dec. 22, 2010. After 30 months, countless TV appearances, and $80 million spent on an extravagant PR campaign, T. Boone Pickens has finally admitted the obvious: The wind energy business isn't a very good one.

The Dallas-based entrepreneur, who has relentlessly promoted his " Pickens Plan " since July 4, 2008, announced earlier this month that he's abandoning the wind business to focus on natural gas. Gone in the Wind (2 of 4) Gone in the Wind (3 of 4)

Denmark: 20% of the electricity is from wind, but much of it is exported at no cost to Norway in return for baseload electricity when the wind does not blow! This is not an option for Hawaii.

Spain : For every 1 green job financed by Spanish taxpayers, 2.2 jobs were lost as an opportunity cost. Since 2000, Spain spent $753,778 per “green job.”

Germany: Green jobs created by government actions disappear as soon as government subsidies end. Gone in the Wind (3 of 4) Washington Post, Nov. 22, 2010: Former vice president Al Gore said Monday that he Food to Energy: No Good! regrets supporting first- generation corn-based ethanol subsidies while he was in office. Reuters reports that Gore said his support for corn-based ethanol subsidies was rooted more in his desire to cultivate farm votes for his presidential run in 2000 than in doing what was right for the environment:

"It is not a good policy to have these massive subsidies for first-generation ethanol," said Gore, speaking at a green energy business conference in Athens, Greece. First- generation ethanol refers to the most basic, but also most energy intensive, process of converting corn to ethanol for use in vehicle engines. Nuclear Power Plants

Nuclear Regulatory Commission: permit applications for at least 26 power plants in U.S. Gallop Poll: 62% favor the technology Obama: triple the amount of loan guarantees for new reactors Current price tag for a large nuclear plant: $6-8 billion Traditional nuclear power plants are not suitable for Hawaii Possibility: ~10 mile cable to decommissioned Navy vessel with small reactors (50 MW) Micro-reactor: Toshiba 4S (Super Safe, Small and Simple) nuclear power system able to supply 10 MW of electricity for 30 years without any new fuel A Low Cost Alternative An Expert Opinion Energy policy should be grounded in realism, and should pursue the Double ‘A’s of energy policy: Abundant and Affordable

Energy policy in US has consisted of fantasies: fantastical claims of imminent energy independence or imminent technology breakthroughs Wind, solar power are unreliable for baseload electricity; even with subsidies, do not scale up enough to reduce fossil fuel use significantly Algae biofuels have greater potential and attract serious investment

The American Enterprise Institute: http://www.american.com/archive/2010/november/double-a-energy-policy Don’t Do That!

Governments simultaneously spend too little and too much on clean-tech Too little on research, development and demonstration of new technologies , and too much subsidizing the commercialization of older technologies that don’t stand on their own If clean-tech companies can profit making subsidized technologies, why invent anything better?

Forbes.com, 1/11/11 Back to Hawaii

Where are we now? What’s the goal? Can we meet the goal? Pat Takahashi’s advice What’s a reasonable plan? 76.5% Oil, 14.8% Coal, 6.4% Renewables

LingleLingle,, Oct. 22, 2008 70% “clean” by 2030 Obama, S.O.T.U 2011 80% “clean” by 2035 2011 Institute for Energy Research Electricity Calculations (DBEDT 2010 data)

Hydro- Geo- Year Petroleum Biomass H-Power Wind Coal PV Total electric thermal 1989 8511 614 100 14 41 9280 1990 8589 538 105 28 9260 1991 8664 495 92 30 9281 1992 8556 460 67 1 21 9105 1993 7576 435 349 78 155 24 1592 10209 1994 7793 423 379 148 175 22 1382 10322 1995 7853 292 383 103 223 23 1674 10551 1996 8027 270 326 110 228 22 1740 10723 1997 7805 226 371 93 229 17 1663 10404 1998 8009 178 364 87 220 21 1553 10432 1999 8144 333 361 113 196 13 1541 10701 2000 9360 211 362 99 250 17 1695 11994 2001 8449 153 275 109 207 18 1616 10827 2002 8651 137 300 99 74 13 1580 10854 2003 8548 174 338 71 176 13 1658 2 10978 2004 9071 181 325 101 211 8 1757 2 11654 2005 9135 174 337 111 221 7 1691 2 11676 2006 9110 170 388 127 212 82 1612 4 11701 2007 8670 155 303 94 230 238 1578 8 11268 2008 8702 133 329 91 234 240 1648 15 11377 2025 8702 399 494 91 702 720 1648 150 12906 x3 x1.5 x3 x3 x10 1993 to Will need 12,900 million KWh in oil+ % 12.75% 17 years other 2008: 2025 coal clean 2008 10350 1027 9.0% 2025 10350 2556 19.8% 2025 Goal is 33%, 2030 Goal is 40% Clarity of Goals

ENERGY goals pertain to total energy management for electricity and transportation , local and long-distance POWER goals pertain to the management of electricity generation and consumption Hawaii’s priorities should be on ENERGY Clean POWER cannot bring food, supplies and visitors

Biofuels for electricity production. “Don’t! It’s a waste..” Use liquid biofuels for transportation. Most promising biomass (gallons oil/year/acre): corn (18), soybean (48), sunflower (102), palm oil (635), marine algae (~10,000) Geothermal reserve on Earth: 70 million QUADs (hot rock only) – USA needs 100 QUAD/yr Philippines: 27% geothermal – Iceland 100% Energy content (MJ/kg), bagasse (10), wood (15), coal (22), petroleum (42), U235 (90,000) Recap: Hawaii is here © Panos D. 2011 Prevedouros, PhD, Panos © Intermittent and Expensive Hawaii’s PseudoPseudo---- Green Model

Emphasis on Wind (and Batteries!) Emphasis on Agriculture-to-Energy Emphasis on Solar Clueless about fuels for ships and airships to transport people and goods Recap: Hawaii seems to be going here Business as Usual Model -- Million KWh 13,000 Biodiesel 12,000 PV Coal 11,000 Wind 10,000 Geothermal Hydro-electric 9,000

6,000

5,000 Oil usage change since 4,000 2008= -4% 3,000

2,000

1,000

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Abundant and Affordable Hawaii Energy Plan

Oahu and Maui: ↑↑↑ Trash and Coal Oahu: Green Bin Biomass Methanol Big Island: ↑↑↑ Geothermal Hawaii: Short term ↑↑↑ Residential solar Hawaii: S & L term ↑↑↑ Grease Biodiesel Hawaii: Long term Biofuels from Algae Hawaii: Goal Oil share 40% by 2025

Now about 75%

Version 2.1 © Panos D. Prevedouros, PhD, 2011 Recap: Hawaii should be going here Solve-the-Problem Model -- Million KWh 13,000

12,000 Biodiesel PV 11,000 Coal

7,000 Petroleum

6,000

5,000

4,000 Oil usage 3,000 change since 2008 = - 41 % 2,000

1,000

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (Energy) Jack ---in ---the Bin

B-Power H-Power Re-Use Power All Pau

Mahalo!