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University Microfilms, a XEROX Company, Ann Arbor, Michigan I ! 72-4489 i i FRATIANNI, Michele, 1941- BANK CREDIT FORMATION, MONEY SUPPLY PROCESSES, AND MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES IN AN OPEN ECONOMY: THE ITALIAN EXPERIENCE, 1958-1969. The Ohio State University, Ph.D., 1971 Economics, finance University Microfilms, A XEROX Company, Ann Arbor, Michigan @ Copyright by- Michele Fratianni 1971 THIS DISSERTATION HAS BEEN MICROFILMED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BANK.CREDIT FORMATION, MONEY SUPPLY PROCESSES, AND MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES IN AN OPEN ECONOMY: THE ITALIAN EXPERIENCE, 1958-1969 DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of the The Ohio State University By Michele Fratianni, B.A., M.A. ********* The Ohio State University 1971 Approved by Adviser Department of Economics PLEASE NOTE: Some Pages have indistinct print. Filmed as received. UNIVERSITY MICROFILMS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am deeply indebted to Professor Karl Brunner who has pro­ vided me with the necessary inspiration and support, not only as my committee chairman and thesis adviser, but also during my years of graduate school. Professors Ernst Baltensperger and Richard T. Stillson, who served as members of the doctoral committee, were exemplary for their determined effort to improve the quality of the dissertation. My deepest gratitude, however, goes to the Banca d ’Italia whose cooperation made this research possible. Within this institution, I want to thank in particular Dr. Paolo Baffi and Professor Francesco Masera for their interest in my work and their courtesy; the brilliant members of the Servizio Studi for patiently bearing my lengthy con­ versations about Italian monetary processes; my friends Drs. Gianfranco Caligiuri, Giorgio Carducci, Antonio Fazio, Fausto Vicarelli for elim­ inating some of my worst misconceptions. Dr. Paolo Savona was tire­ less in giving me expert advice and relentless in his criticism, as in much of our work together. Finally, I xrant to express my gratitude to the Mershon Center for Education in National Security Policy Studies of the Ohio State University and the Ente Per Gli Studi Monetari, Bancari e Finanziari "Luigi Einaudi" for financial support. VITA March 7, 1941 . Born - Firenze, Italy 1967 B.A. cum laude, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 1967 M.A. in economics, The Ohio State University Columbus, Ohio 1967-70 Fellow, the.Mershon Center for Education in National Security Policy Studies PUBLICATIONS "Una Struttura Formale per l ’Analisi della Capaclth Moltiplicativa del Mercato dell* Eurodollaro," L TIndustrie, September 1970 (co-authored with Paolo Savona) "The International Monetary Base and the Eurodollar Market," Konstanz- Symposium on Monetary Theory and Policy, ed. Karl Brunner (Gifttingan: Vandenhock Rupprecht Verlay, 1971) [co-authored with Paolo Savona] "Eurodollar Creation: Comments on Prof. Machlup’s Propositions and • Developments," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, June 1971 (co-authored with Paolo Savona) "Moneta Potenziale e Base Monetaria Aggiustata in Italia dal 1958 al 1969," Bancaria, March 1971 (co-authored with Paolo Ranuzzi De Bianchi) iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii VITA ill LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF FIGURES xi Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION....................... ................. 1 PART I BANK CREDIT AND MONEY SUPPLY PROCESSES IN AN OPEN ECONOMY: THE ITALIAN EXPERIENCE, 1958-69 2 BANK CREDIT AND MONEY SUPPLY PROCESSES IN AN OPEN ECONOMY: A MODEL APPLICABLE TO ITALY ............ 4 2.1 INTRODUCTION .................................... 4 2.2 DESCRIPTION OF THE MONETARY MO D E L .............. 7 2.2.1 The Monetary Base: Its Sources and Uses . 7 a. The relation between the budget con­ straint of the government and the monetary b a s e ........................ 17 b. The relation between the balance of payments disequilibrium and the mone­ tary b a s e ............................. 19 c. A brief historical sketch of the regula­ tions pertaining to the foreign position of Italian b a n k s .................... 25 d. The adjusted monetary b a s e ... 28 e. Uses of base mo n e y ........... 28 2.2.2 Statements Describing the Behavior of Commercial Banks ........................ 29 a, The banks’ desired base money ratio, r. 29 b . The required base money ratio, r^ . 30 iv Table Contents (continued) c. The excess base money ratio, r„ . 37 £j d. The banks’ domestic borrowing ratio, b „ ............................ 39 n e. The banks' net foreign borrowing ratio, *F « 2.2.3 Statements Describing the Behavior of the P u b l i c ........................ 45 2.2.4 The Relation Between the Time to Demand Deposits Ratio and Credit Market Rates . , 50 2.2.5 Two Definitions of Money S u p p l y . 53 2.3 PROPERTIES AND SOME■IMPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL . 55 2.3.1 Solution for the Bank Credit Rate i__ and Interest Rate Responses to Changes In Relatively Exogenous Variables ...... 56 2.3.2 Solution for the Money Supply and Bank C r e d i t ............................ 58 a. The elasticity of the multipliers with respect to the credit market rate .. 59 b. M* and EA responses to changes in policy parameters and relatively exogenous vari­ ables during periods of historically low interest rates ...................... 62 c. M^ and EA responses to changes in policy parameters and relatively exogenous vari­ ables during periods of high interest rates 63 2.3.3 Implications of a Bond Price Stabilization P o l i c y ............................ 67 2.3.4 Interest Rate Effect of a Change in the Composition with which the Government Deficit is Financed (for a Given Deficit) and of an Open Market Operation . 69 2.4 SUMMARY OF THEORETICAL FINDINGS ............. 7Q 3 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS.................... .. 86 3.1 THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MONETARY AUTHORITIES . 86 3.2 THE BEHAVIOR OF THE BANKS AND ITS DETERMIN/NTS 91 3.3 THE BEHAVIOR OF THE PUBLIC AND ITS DETERMINANTS 102 v Table of Contents (continued) 3.4 REGRESSION ESTIMATES OF THE REDUCED FORM EQUATIONS FOR INTEREST RATES AND THE SUPPLY OF M O N E Y .......... 120 3.4.1 The Price Level as an Expectative Effect . ............. ......... 129 3.4.2 The Behavior of the Interest Rate Over the Business Cycle ............ 133 3.4.3 The Influence of Open Market Operations, Government-Generated Wealth, and Income on the Rate of I n t e r e s t ................ 135 3.5 THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE ADJUSTED BASE AND THE MONETARY MULTIPLIER TO THE GROWTH OF THE MONEY STOCK .............................. 141 3.6 THE EURODOLLAR MARKET AND THEMONEY MULTIPLIER . 148 3.7 SUMMARY OF MAJOR F I N D I N G S ...................... 152 PART II FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES IN AN OPEN ECONOMY: THE ITALIAN EXPERIENCE FROM 1958-69 4 THE IMPACT OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES ON INTER­ NATIONAL RESERVES, INCOME, AND PRICES IN CLASSICAL AND KEYNESIAN W O R L D S ............................... 156 4.1 INTRODUCTION.................................... 156 4.2 THE FORMAL M O D E L ............................... 164 4.3 THE "CLASSICALSSOLUTION TO THE M O D E L ....... 169 4.3.1 Solution Ignoring the Budget Con­ straint ................................... 169 4.3.2 The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in a Regime of Fixed Exchange Rates .......... 178 4.3.3 Solution with the Budget Constraint . 183 4.4 THE KEYNESIAN SOLUTION TO THE M O D E L ....... .. 192 4.4.1 Solution Ignoring the Budget Constraint.............................. 192 4.4.2 Solution with the Budget Constraint . , . 194 vi Table of Contents (continued) 4.5 LONG-RUN EQUILIBRIUM AND DYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF THE M O D E L ....................................... 195 4.6 SUMMARY OF MAJOR THEORETICAL FINDINGS.......... 200 5 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 203 5.1 INTRODUCTION..................................... 2Q3 5.2 MONETARY POLICY IN AN OPEN ECONOMY: THE ITALIAN EXPERIENCE SINCE THE RETURN TO CURRENCY CONVER­ TIBILITY .............................. 204 5.2.1 The Relation between the Stock of International Reserves and the Domestic Source Component of the Monetary B a s e ........ .............. 206 5.2.2 Sterilization Policy and Swap Operations: Monetary Policy "Italian Style" ......... 213 a. Balancerof-payments surpluses and business economic expansion, 1958- October 1962 217 b. Balance-of-payments deficits during the final leg of the expansion phase of the cycle, November 1962-September 1963 218 c. The great credit crunch: October, 1963-June, 1964 ...................... 219 d. From a tight to a mildly expansive monetary policy: July, 1964-October, 1965 223 e. The interest-rate pegging policy: . 1966-first quarter of 1969 224 f. Balance-of-payments deficit and rising Eurodollar rates: 1969 226 g. Summary............................... 227 5.3 THE IMPACT ON INCOME AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVES OF VARIOUS POLICY COMBINATIONS.................. 228 5.3.1 The Selection of the "Right" Policy Combination: An Institutional Analysis of the Italian Budget S y s t e m ............ 236 5.3.2 The Stabilization Quality of Fiscal and Monetary Act i o n s .................... 240 vii Table of Contents (continued) 5.4 SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS ....................... 252 Literature Cited . , . ................................. • 256 viii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 The Account of the Treasury, Cassa DD.PP., and Government Corporations ............................. 9 2 Construction of a Balance Sheet for the Treasury, Cassa DD.PP. and Government Corporations ........... 10 3 Consolidated Balance Sheet of the Bank of Italy and the Italian Exchange O f f i c e .............. 14 4 Consolidation of Account Table 2 with Account Table 3 ............................................. 15 5 Summary of the Model Explaining Bank Credit and Money Supply Processes in Italy as an Open Economy............................................. 73 6 Summary of Responses of Credit Market Rates to Changes in Relatively Exogenous Variables and Policy Parameters ................................... 78 1 2 7 Summary of Responses of M , M and EA to Changes in Relatively Exogenous Variables and Policy P a r a m e t e r s ......................................... 82 8 Italy: 1958.1-1969.IV. Average Yearly Growth Rate in the Base and its Components, and Liber­ ated Base Due to Changes in Reserve Requirement R a t i o s ............................................
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