V16, N37 Thursday, June 2, 2011 9 mayoral races in ‘Tossup’ zone Melina Kennedy chats Ballard, Ockomon, Fincher with Kathleen Kennedy in tossups; McShurley Townsend on Tuesday. Below are vulnerable on HPI takeover list incumbents: Muncie’s Sharon McShurley and By BRIAN A. HOWEY Terre Haute’s Duke Ben- INDIANAPOLIS - While there is yet nett. to be an anti-incumbency wave sweeping across Indiana’s city streets this year, a city- by-city analysis of general election mayoral races finds a handful of incumbents with serious challenges on their hands. Muncie Mayor Sharon McShurley, Terre Haute’s Duke Bennett, Anderson’s Kris Ockomon, Logansport’s Michael Fincher, West Lafayette’s John Dennis and India- napolis Mayor Greg Ballard all appear to be poised for stern tests this November. All are rated “Tossup” except for McShurley who appears to be poised for takeover at this point in her race. Also in “Tossup” are the open Evansville mayor’s office where Democrat Rick Davis is battling Republican who could face intense challenges by Election Day. Lloyd Winnecke, as well as open city halls in Vincennes and But it comes after a relative sanguine primary sea- New Castle. son for incumbents. Bloomington Mayor Mark Kruzan, East HPI rates two “leans” races in favor of Fort Wayne Chicago Mayor Anthony Copeland, Hammond’s Thomas Mayor Tom Henry and Goshen Mayor Allan Kauffman, both Continued on page 3 Hamlet’s victors, losers By JACK COLWELL SOUTH BEND - Who won, who lost, when Mitch Daniels concluded his Hamlet bit - to run or not to run - saying a run was not to be? “With a $14 trillion national Daniels, who wanted to run and had orchestrated a way debt, the American people are to do so with substantial support, appears to be the big loser because fed up and want us to change he couldn’t get the support that the way Washington spends the mattered most, from his family. He lost the chance to be president or at people’s money.” least a real shot at being a nominee with major national impact on is- - U.S. Rep. Mike Pence sues. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

Even though his spokesmen dia, the political blogs and the oppo- say he had a clear path to the Repub- nents for the presidential nomination. lican nomination, nobody knows for A veto came. sure how clear or cluttered that path Daniels still could go on as a would have been. winner nationally in a Republican ad- www.HoweyPolitics.com Daniels’ intelligence brings ministration as a key Cabinet member. understanding of the big policy issues Vice presidential nominee? He hasn’t and confidence of finding solutions. ruled it out, although that also would Howey Politics Yet, would he have been able to keep bring scrutiny on the “revelations” that Indiana attention on those big issues or would sidetracked his presidential bid. is a non-partisan newsletter his campaign instead have been beset Most analysts of the field of based in Indianapolis. It was by flaps over trivial, divisive matters, prospects for the Republican presiden- founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. bringing loss in a thankless effort? tial nomination calculate that those There would have been more benefitting most will be three former delving into the governors, Mitt Rom- Brian A. Howey, Publisher Daniels’ family se- ney of Massachusetts, Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington crets by the news Tim Pawlenty of Min- Jack E. Howey, editor media, the political nesota and Jon Hunts- Beverly K. Phillips, associate blogs and the op- man of Utah, who also position. served as ambassador editor Cheri Dan- to China. iels, the governor’s Daniels, one Subscriptions wife, is a loser of of the favorites of the $350 annually HPI Weekly the privacy she has GOP establishment, long sought. would have taken sup- $550 annually HPI Weekly and When the port and funding from HPI Daily Wire. governor arranged Pawlenty and Hunts- 'Call 317.627.6746 for her to deliver man. a highly publicized Daniels also May 12 speech at a was seen by key Contact HPI big GOP fundraiser national GOP opera- Howey Politics Indiana in Indianapolis, it tives as someone who 6255 N. Evanston Ave. appeared that she could move up quickly Indianapolis, IN 46220 and the four Dan- to challenge Romney, www.howeypolitics.com iels daughters wouldn’t veto a presi- the front-runner but with baggage that dential run. She certainly would not could slow him down. [email protected] have spoken in the national spotlight if In Indiana, Democratic leaders 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 a veto already was cast. breathed sighs of relief at removal of 'Washington: 703.248.0909 Alas, there then came the chance of Daniels for president at 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 national news media focus on the the top of the Republican ticket. couple’s divorce and remarriage - with Prospects of electing Con- Cheri Daniels between those mar- gressman Joe Donnelly, expected © 2011, Howey Politics Indiana. riages moving to California and marry- to be the Democratic nominee for All rights reserved. Photocopy- ing another man - and messy details, the U.S. Senate, and former House ing, Internet forwarding, fax- including a vicious denunciation by Speaker John Gregg, likely Democratic ing or reproducing in any form, that man’s former wife and sugges- nominee for governor, would have whole or part, is a violation of tions that Mrs. Daniels abandoned her been diminished if not destroyed with children. Hurtful accusations, whether Daniels on the ballot for president. federal law without permission true or false. Indiana could even be in from the publisher. v The intense scrutiny on play again in the presidential race. It anyone deemed a serious presidential wouldn’t have been with a Hoosier prospect would have brought more leading the Republican ticket. delving into all this by the news me- A possible winner in the HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

Daniels decision is Sen. Dick Lugar, who is in a tussle with a chance of becoming Indiana’s first woman governor Tea Party favorite for the GOP Senate nomination. Lugar, a through Daniels resigning in order to pursue the presiden- political mentor and long-time friend of Daniels, could use tial nomination full-time. Daniels had said that was some- support now from the governor. While in the midst of con- thing he would have to consider. templating a presidential race, Daniels said he would vote First, though, he had to consider a family veto. The for Lugar but not otherwise take sides in the senatorial presidential race, no matter how orchestrated, how close or nomination battle. Now, free of concern over alienating Tea how promising, was not to be. v Party voters nationally, he could get more involved helping Lugar. Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman also lost any possible cades for the South Bend Tribune.

the keys to City Hall, but didn’t immediately turn over his Mayors, from page 1 title as mayor. “They keys may be surrendered, but that’s not the issue here,” said Smith at the time. Ockomon, on McDermott Jr., Hobart’s Brian Snedecor and Carmel’s Jim his first day as mayor, defended his claim that he lived in Brainard all cruised to easy victories after well-publicized an Anderson home and not at his family’s home outside primary challenges last May. city limits. Ockomon calls a suit filed last week, asking The dynamic change comes a little more than half that Smith remain in office pending a court ruling over the a year after Republicans took over the Indiana House and residency issue, an act of desperation. “I believe the timing three Congressional seats as the antithesis of President was poor and I think it reads very loudly of sour grapes,” Obama’s 2008 change message rattled Hoosier political said Ockomon. Ockomon has faced allegations of sexual circles. And it comes after the 2007 elections when 40 per- harassment during his first term that were rejected by the cents were defeated for reelection. EEOC, but may face a civil suit. Given the past bitterness Here is our early summer preview of mayoral races and the two nominees primary performances, this race has from around the state: all the trappings of being close. Horse Race Status: Tos- sup Anderson Democrat: Mayor Kris Okomon. Republican: Bloomington Kevin Smith. 2007 Results: Ockomon (D) 7,757, Smith (R) Democrat: Mayor Mark Kruzan. Republican: Vacant. 7,112, Jozwiak (I) 441, Bibbs (write-in) 350. 2011 Fore- 2007 Results: Kruzan (D) 5,937, Sabbagh (R) 3,729. cast: This is a rematch between Democratic Mayor Kris 2011 Forecast: Kruzan easily defeated John Hamilton in Ockomon and former Republican mayor Kevin Smith, who the primary and does not have a Republican opponent yet. lost his reelection bid in 2007. Kruzan will easily win a third term. Horse Race Status: Smith polled 79 percent in a five- Safe Kruzan way Republican primary. Ocko- mon defeated Fred Reese by 750 votes in a three-way Democratic Carmel primary race for just 55 per- Republican: Mayor James Brainard. Democrat. Vacant. cent. Reese, who was appointed 2007 Results: Brainard 9,192. Winckler (D) 2,068, Spie- Ockomon’s parks superintendent gelman (I) 2,557. 2011 Forecast: Brainard will easily win before the mayor suspended him a fourth term. Break out the cellos. Horse Race Status: and he was ultimately removed, Safe Brainard said he would support Ockomon in the fall general election, the Columbus Anderson Herald-Bulletin reported. “We are the party of Democrat: Priscilla Scalf. Republican: Kristen Brown. inclusion, and we want to continue that,” Reese said. “I 2007 Results: Armstrong (D) 4,728, White (R) 1,498. say to Kevin and to Mayor Ockomon, good luck, and I think 2011 Forecast: Scalf defeated former mayor Nancy these two gentlemen will represent the city in the way it Brown in the Demcoratic primary by 520 votes while Kris- needs to be.” The general election has the potential to be ten Brown easily won the Republican primary. After four a cliff-hanger and emotional. Ockomon (pictured) won by terms by popular retiring Mayor Fred Armstrong, Colum- just 600 votes in 2007. But with allegations that Ockomon bus looks like it could change parties this cycle. More than did not meet residency requirements, Smith refused to 5,000 Republicans turned out for the primary, compared surrender the office in January 2008. Smith did turn over to around 1,500 in the Democratic primary. Horse Race HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

Status: Leans Brown Republican sources tell HPI that Winnecke has lead in early face-to-face internal polls, but a sizable chunk East Chicago of the electorate remains undecided and/or doesn’t know Democrat: Mayor Anthony Copeland. 2007 Democratic either candidate. “The race remains relatively fluid,” one Primary Results: Pabey 3,784, Anthony Copeland 2,736, Republican said. Winnecke emerged from the primary with Edward Williams 639, Alicia Lopez-Rodriguez 364 Willie about $105,000, while Davis depleted his war chest. Thus B. McClain 10. 2011 Forecast: Copeland will become the Winnecke is expected to maintain a money advantage. But first elected African-American mayor of East Chicago after Winnecke has had only one competitive race in his career he was appointed following the conviction of Mayor George and he faces some daunting demographics. “It is harder for Pabey, who reported to federal prison on Wednesday. Republicans to win in the city — absolutely. No question,” Horse Race Status: Safe Copeland said Russ Lloyd Jr., the only Republican elected mayor in the past three decades (Langhorne, Evansville Courier & Elkhart Press). Lloyd was elected in 1999, after serving three years Democrat: Mayor Dick Moore. Republican: Councilman on the County Council. He acknowledges that he benefited David Ashe. 2007 Results: Moore (D) 4,050, Pettit (R) from being the son of one of the most popular and char- 2,046 Gibson (I) 137. 2011 Forecast: Mayor Moore, hav- ismatic politicians in the city’s history - Russell G. Lloyd ing guided Elkhart through the shock of the Great Reces- Sr., who served as mayor from 1971 to 1979. “We had a sion of 2009-10, is in a strong position for reelection. Horse unique set of circumstances,” the junior Lloyd said. “First Race Status: Likely Moore of all, my name was a good name. There were a lot of Democrats that supported my dad, so they felt good about supporting me.” Evansville Also boosting Lloyd’s chances were a united and Democrat: Vanderburgh County Treasurer Rick Davis. enthusiastic Republican Party, then-Democratic Mayor Republican: Vanderburgh Commissioner Lloyd Winnecke. Frank McDonald II’s neutrality and lingering hard feelings 2007 Results: Weinzapfel (D) 13,097, Nixon (R) 2,268. among some supporters of Democratic primary winner Rick 2011 Forecast: Davis easily turned back Troy Tornatta in Borries’ vanquished opponents. The returns yield evidence the primary by 18 per- that it was Lloyd’s singular appeal, and not a wave of Re- cent while taking issue publican support, that propelled him to the mayor’s office. with out-going Mayor While Lloyd defeated Borries with just under 51 percent of Jonathan Weinzapfel. the vote, the GOP’s nominee for city clerk lost by a margin That has led some to of 61 percent to 39 percent. Two of the top vote-getters predict a split among for three at-large City Council seats were Democrats, and the Democratic base. Republicans lost three of four contested council races in “I’m going to reach wards. Weinzapfel then defeated Lloyd in 2003. Lloyd cites out to anybody who the city’s “older, smaller housing stock, and so the residents wants to be a part of maybe are less affluent and more blue collar, and those this wonderful feeling,” residents tend more to be Democrats. You can look at any Davis said, surrounded kind of electoral map; the blue versus the red, and the red by jubilant supporters Evansville Democrat Rick Davis has is more the rural areas and the blue is more the central cit- after his 3,996-2,808 demographics on his side, but will ies.” Weinzapfel told the Courier & Press, “If you make the victory over Tornatta be outspent and faces a potentially assumption that the higher your income, the greater the was announced (Lang- divided party. tendency to vote Republican, and you consider the fact that horne, Evansville Courier the housing construction that’s taking place in the county & Press). “The Demo- (outside the city) are homes of greater value than those cratic Party is a big tent. We’re very diverse, and it’s going that exist in the city, you have to have a little bit more to take all of us to win. And I think it’s very important for money than the median household income in Vanderburgh the working families of Evansville that the Democratic Party County in order to purchase the large majority of this hous- rally behind the cause.” Tornatta described his campaign ing.” as his “one last stab at a goal of being mayor” and did not The 2010 Indiana General Assembly Republicans endorse Davis on Election Night. Local sources tell HPI that who won office did not carry the Evansville portion of their Davis is not obsessed with regaining some of the Demo- districts. Democrats won the battle of straight-ticket voters cratic insiders upset with him for declaring for the race in city precincts by a margin of 5,635 to 5,370. Our take? before Weinzapfel decided not to seek reelection. Many We see a very competitive race shaping up. Both nominees believed that Weinzapfel was poised to run for governor. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

have a core of motivated supporters. Winnecke will have a to motivate them to vote in a fiercely contested Republican money advantage, Davis has the demographic tailwind but race for mayor. Fort Wayne was supposed to become a may have a divided party. The wild cards could be whether Republican city after former Mayor Paul Helmke annexed Weinzapfel plays a role as well as the proposed Evansville/ in large areas of Republican Aboite Township and other Vanderburgh consolidation. Horse Race Status: Tossup areas. But Democrats have won three straight elections since then, including Henry’s first in 2007 when Repub- Fort Wayne lican nominee Matt Kelty went into a historic meltdown Democrats: Mayor Tom Henry. Republicans: Paula that ended in his indictment and conviction on campaign Hughes. 2007 Results: Henry 31,740, Kelty (R) 21,163. violations. We believe that Henry is the early favorite and 2011 Forecast: Early polling showed Henry’s popularity don’t sense a widespread anti-incumbency wave developing in the 60th percentile. But he faces former councilwoman as of now. But with the prospect of a double-dip recession Paula Hughes, who won a decisive, come-from-behind and Hughes campaign style which should not be under-es- primary 56 percent victory over timated, this race should be watched closely. Horse Race Councilwoman Liz Brown (who Status: Leans Henry did not advertise on TV) and businessman Eric Doden. How Gary did Hughes trounce her primary Democrat: Karen Freeman-Wilson. Republican: Charles opponents? Fellow Republicans R. Smith Jr. 2007 Results: Clay 8,529, Smith (R) 2,569. – and Hughes herself – said she 2011 Forecast: Former attorney general Freeman-Wilson did it methodically, opening the will easily win in the fall and become Indiana’s first female campaign early and building a African-American mayor, and only the fifth in state history. campaign organization long be- Horse Race Status: Safe Freeman-Wilson fore most of the running began this year (Caylor, Fort Wayne Goshen News-Sentinel). In 2009, more Fort Wayne Republican Democrat: Mayor Allan Kauffman. Republican: Council- than a year and a half ago, Paula Hughes ran a great man Donald Riegsecker. 2007 Results: Kauffman (D), Hughes announced that she primary campaign for a 2,903, Huser (R) 2,587. 2011 Forecast: This is a conser- wouldn’t go after another term decisive come-from-behind vative Republican city that Kauffman has presided over for on City Council, so that she win. three terms and is favored to win over political newcomer could focus on what was then Riegsecker. Kauffman easily won the primary while Rieg- a fledgling campaign to become Fort Wayne’s next mayor. secker defeated fellow Councilman Chic Lantz. “I’m pre- Tuesday night, she said that early launch to her campaign suming I’ll have to work a little harder in the fall,” Kauffman helped her build a network of volunteers. When she took told the Elkhart Truth. “A lot harder.” Kauffman served on the stage at Ceruti’s to talk to fellow Republicans Tuesday the Goshen City Council for 16 years before he was ap- night, about four dozen of her campaign backers took the pointed to finish out the term left by Mike Puro leaving the stage along with her. Hughes has made spending and may- city in 1997. He’s been reelected to the job in each election oral perks issues she will press this fall. “No longer will we since then. Riegsecker is in his first half-year on the coun- be growing mounds of debt” without thought to its impact cil, filling out the term of his brother, Darryl, who left the on future generations, she told a Republican crowd Tues- seat to take a seat on the Elkhart County Council. Horse day evening. Her campaign manager, Sean Bartley, expand- Race Status: Leans Kauffman ed on the tack the campaign will take in facing incumbent Mayor Tom Henry, who easily won – with about 86 percent Hammond of the vote – against four challengers in the Democratic Democrat: Mayor Thomas McDermott. Republican: primary. “Either Fort Wayne voters will accept $400 million George Janiec. 2007 Results: McDermott (D) 5,289, in debt, or they won’t. Either Fort Wayne voters will accept Janiec (R) 4,802. 2011 Forecast: More than 70 percent of or reject a Fort Wayne mayor making $30,000 more than Republican voters in the May 3 mayoral primary voted for the governor of Indiana,” Bartley said. Voters can decide candidates other than victor George Janiec, and his three whether to give the mayor a “free ride” while “the citizens closest competitors aren’t yet supporting his candidacy in of Fort Wayne struggle to fill their tanks.” The primary drew November (NWI Times). Republican voters split among four only a 13 percent turnout. The concern for Republicans is candidates who earned more than 90 percent of the vote, that such a low turnout for a primary could be a sign that and it doesn’t appear the party is close to unifying behind people aren’t dissatisfied enough with the current mayor Janiec’s candidacy. Janiec earned 28 percent of the 1,300 HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

ballots cast. Matt Saliga, who finished second to Janiec in toward the Democrats. In 2008 the Democrats had 50,000 2007 and again this year, said he hasn’t heard from Janiec more straight party voters, and in the 2010 prosecutor’s since the election. Janiec’s next two closest competitors race they had a 22,000 vote advantage. While Ballard will - Robert Pastore and David Hacker - both said they won’t likely have a money advantage throughout this campaign - support Janiec. Janiec said the lack of endorsements from he had $2 million compared to $1.3 million in April - many former opponents won’t prevent their supporters from expect this race will tighten up. It may come down to backing him in November. “The candidates themselves are organization and GOTV. Jon Mills, spokesman for Kennedy, one individual. They may throw their support into the race, tells HPI that the Democratic nominee spent only $35,000 but it’s still only one person. It’s the people in back - can to easily win the primary. He says that education, public (candidates) vouch for people in back and control their safety and jobs will be the big issues. “We lost 35,000 jobs. vote? I don’t know,” he said. Janiec also said he may have Graduation rates continue to plummet. Crime is up and lost votes because the legality of his candidacy lingered there is a lack of leadership in public safety,” Mills said. for weeks after the Lake County elections board booted “There have been more than 100 fee increases put on him from the ballot, saying his nonpartisan positon on the taxpayers. Melina is going to put forth ideas on education, Hammond School Board prevented a partisan mayoral run. getting guns off the street and we want to restore vital The Indiana Supreme Court overturned the board’s decision crime prevention programs.” 12 days before the primary. Janiec will again face Mayor Indianapolis Star columnist Matt Thomas McDermott Jr., who drew almost 7,900 votes in his Tully recently lauded Kennedy’s educa- landslide victory in May. Janiec lost to McDermott in the tion efforts, saying, “Kennedy’s entry 2007 general election by fewer than 500 votes. McDermott into the local education debate came attributed his landslide primary victory to his own unprec- last week and, if graded on a curve, edented effort, spurred by his embarrassingly close victory she gets decent marks. That’s mainly over Janiec in 2007. McDermott’s campaign spent more because the only other student in the than $100,000 on the race to staff a headquarters, feed class is Mayor Greg Ballard, and he’s volunteers and track Democratic voters. He still has cash on pulled down the curve thanks to his hand and months to continue fundraising. “The numbers complete absence from a crucial debate over the future don’t look good. McDermott really worked to get out the of traditional public schools in the city. Driven by political vote this time. I think in the last general election, 10,000 fear and calculation, Ballard has declined to take part in a votes were cast and he got 5,000-something,” Saliga said. conversation about potential governance changes to In- “This time he got 8,000 in a primary. George isn’t going to dianapolis Public Schools -- changes that could range from get anywhere near those numbers. And I don’t know who complete mayoral control to mayoral representatives on the can.” Janiec said he’s hoping a 33 percent boost in Repub- school board.” lican voter turnout will lead to more participation in the Jennifer Hallowell, speaking for the Ballard cam- general election. He said Republicans “mysteriously grew” paign, tells HPI, “There is no way they are going to make to number almost 5,000 in 2007 after fewer than 1,000 their job allegations stick.” She cited a recent Indianapolis turned out after that primary. Horse Race Status: Likely Business Journal story that detailed how current jobs num- McDermott bers are compiled the same way when Kennedy was deputy mayor under Bart Peterson. Ballard will draw contrast over Hobart what he calls 8,700 new jobs by 73 companies making Democrat: Mayor Brian K. Snedecor. Independent: Chip $970 million in investments. Ballard has ignited an aggres- Greenberg. 2007 Results: Snedecor (D) 3,639, Guthrie sive public works road construction program, is expanding (R) 2,426. 2011 Forecast: Snedecor defeated former bike lanes and reacted to a WTHR-TV investigative story on mayor Linda Buzinec in a primary rematch by 1,300 votes. towing abuses, announcing new rules last month. Ballard He will coast to a second term in November. Horse Race will also preside over the ramp up to the scheduled NFL Status: Likely Snedecor Super Bowl in February 2012. As for education issues, Hallowell asked, “Where Indianapolis was Melina Kennedy during this past legislative session Republican: Mayor Greg Ballard. Democrats: Melina when the mayor lobbied for the reform? Does she support Kennedy. 2007 Results: Ballard (D) 83,238, Peterson, the education reforms or did she camp out in Illinois for a Bart (D) 77,926, Peterson, Fred (L) 3,787. 2011 Fore- couple of weeks?” Both Kennedy and Ballard were at the cast: This is a race where the early internal GOP polling Broad Ripple hearing on the state takeovers Tuesday night. showed Ballard with a big lead, but that was months ago. While Indy mayoral candidate Kennedy may not The demographics in Indianapolis are steadily shifting have universal name ID, another influential Kennedy who HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

does have it made a stop in Indianapolis this week to show Charlie Hastings, 535-529, for the Democratic nomination support for Melina. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, eldest while Ted Franklin soundly defeated challenger Michael daughter of Sen. Robert Kennedy, said her first visit to In- Berkshire, 821-279, to earn the spot on the Republican dianapolis was in 1968 to campaign for her Dad. Wednes- ticket (Lilly, Logansport Pharos-Tribune). Fincher said the day’s visit was to drum up support for Melina at a privately six-vote margin over Hastings was too close for comfort. hosted event by Catholic Democrats, a non-profit national “I am humbled and honored to have won,” organization that according to their website, represents the said Fincher, who is going for a third term. “Catholic voice within the Democratic Party.” Melina Ken- Only one other Logansport mayor has won nedy shared with supporters and a bevy of elected city/ three terms. “I think it’s a wakeup call.” county Democratic officials that according to Washington Franklin said the 542-vote margin over Post’s Chris Cilliza’s mid-January post on The Fix, the Indy Berkshire and the other candidates sent Mayor’s race ranks #5 among “The 10 best races of 2011” to the Nov. 8 general election by voters to keep an eye on. HPI agrees. showed that Republicans were ready for a Sources in both parties believe this will be a close change. “In my involvement in city politics, race. Ballard’s internal polling last winter had him leading Logansport this is the most unified that I have ever by double digits. “I would expect since January her number Mayor Michael seen the party,” Franklin said. This one will has bumped up due to the primary and Democratic folks Fincher. be worth watching this fall. Horse Race didn’t know who she was,” Hallowell said “She still doesn’t Status: Tossup have universal name ID. I expect it to be tight.” Horse Race Status: Tossup West Lafayette Republican: Mayor John Dennis. Democrat: John Polles. Jeffersonville 2007 Results: Dennis (R) 2,601, Mills (D) 2,004. 2011 Democrat: Mayor Tom Galligan, Rob Waiz, Clark County Forecast: Polles came within 26 votes of defeating State Councilman Kenneth Vissing. Republican: Clark County Rep. Randy Truitt in 2008. The Purdue chemistry professor Commissioner Mike Moore. 2007 Results: Galligan (D) is a retired Army lieutenant colonel. He has the backing of 4,102, Snelling (R) 2,406. 2011 Forecast: Galligan easily former mayors Sonya Margerum and Jan Mills, along with defeated former mayor Rob Waiz by 1,000 votes in the former state representative Joe Micon. Dennis is serving his Democratic primary. While there has been a GOP resur- first term after he upset Mills by 600 votes in the 2007 anti- gence in Clark County, Jeffersonville is still heavily Demo- incumbency wave. This could be a close race. Horse Race cratic and we believe that Galligan is a strong favorite. Status: Tossup Horse Race Status: Likely Galligan Marion Kokomo Republican: Mayor Wayne Seybold. Democrat: Lynn Democrat: Mayor Greg Goodnight. Republican: Scott Strieb-Johnson. 2007 Results: Seybold (R) 3,779, Henry Kern. 2007 Results: Goodnight (D) 6,721, Hamilton (R) (R) 1,918. 2011 Forecast: We believe Seybold will easily 3,469. 2011 Forecast: Goodnight faces former fire chief win another term. Horse Race Status: Safe Seybold Kern, who was also a former Democrat. Goodnight has steered Kokomo through some of its toughest years and is Michigan City in great shape for reelection. Horse Race Status: Safe Democrat: Councilman Ron Meer. Republican: LaPorte Goodnight County Republican Chairman Keith Harris. 2007 Results: Oberlie (D) 2,153. 2011 Forecast: Meer won a five-man Lafayette primary with 1,445 votes, more than 400 over his closest Democrat: Mayor Tony Roswarski. Republican: Andrew opponent. Harris drew only 280 votes in an uncontested Phillips. 2007 Results: Roswarski (D) 8,644, Auckley (R) primary. Michigan City is a heavily Democratic city with 1,934. 2011 Forecast: Roswarski will be a heavy favorite retiring Mayor Chuck Oberlie winning unopposed in 2007. to win another term in November. Horse Race Status: We see Meer as a heavy favorite. Horse Race Status: Safe Roswarski Likely Meer

Logansport Mishawaka Democrat: Mayor Michael Fincher. Republican: Ted Democrat: State Rep. Craig Fry. Republican: Mayor Dave Franklin. 2007 Results: Fincher (D) 2,539, Franklin (R) Wood. 2007 Results: Rea (R) 5,254, Hayes (D) 4,720. 1,598. 2011 Forecast: Fincher narrowly beat Councilman 2011 Forecast: Wood was selected last year to finish out Mayor Jeff Rea’s term, so there is no traditional incumbent HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 8 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

in this race. While Mishawaka is a Democratic city and fall race along with the task of operating city government regularly elects Democratic majorities on its city council, within a shrinking budget. “There will be more cuts. There the only Democrat mayor in the past generation was Bob will have to be,” she told the Palladium-Item. “People have Kovatch. Fry has been on the ballot in House races since told me they want cuts; they just haven’t said what they the 1980s and may have more name ID than Mayor Wood want cut.” Horse Race Status: Likely Hutton. going in. Fry will make an aggressive bid, but sometimes he is too aggressive. A number of local Democrats are South Bend down on him for some past dispute in which they found Democrats: Peter Buttigieg. Republican: Wayne Curry. him nasty. While Wood is no “Mr. Charisma” he is a nice 2007 Results: Luecke (D) 12,355, Manigault (R) 7,471. guy and that will make it harder for Fry to make the nega- 2011 Forecast: Buttigieg, just months after losing to tives stick. Mishawaka voters seem to like their Republican Indiana Treasure Richard Mourdock, is a cinch for election mayors and progress in their city. They contrast that with in this heavily Democratic city and will quickly become a what they see as lack of progress under Democratic admin- rising star in the Indiana Democratic Party where he will be istrations in neighboring South Bend. Horse Race Status: a commanding presence in the South Bend media market. Leans Wood He faces the task of reviving a city that is losing population and prestige. Horse Race Status: Safe Buttigieg Muncie Republican: Mayor Sharon McShurley. Democrat: State Terre Haute Rep. Dennis Tyler. 2007 Results: McShurley 6,121, Man- Democrat: Fred Nation. Republican: Mayor Duke Ben- sfield (D) 6,108.2011 Forecast: Tyler (pictured) easily nett. 2007 Results: Bennett (R) 6,055, Burke (D) 5,948. won a three-man primary and will now take aim at embat- 2011 Forecast: Nation is probably the best possible can- tled Repbublican McShurley. After winning by just a handful didate for the Democrats, but it’s still going to be difficult to of votes, McShurley has faced a myriad of controversies unseat this incumbent. Terre Haute and Vigo County voters and showdowns with her city council, county govern- have already demonstrated they don’t much care about po- ment, firefighters, animal control, local festival committees litical labels anymore. Last year, they re-elected an incum- (including one with Black Expo this week, see page 15), all bent Republican prosecutor by a wide margin. The Demo- while dealing with the property tax caps that have crimped crat wasn’t a strong candidate, however. Nation should do Muncie’s budget. We view her has the most vulnerable better. Bennett has proved to be a solid operations guy and incumbent. Horse Race Status: Likely Tyler manager. He’s handled various budgeting crisis well with- out offending key groups — such as police and firefighters New Albany — that can sometimes make life miserable for incumbent Democrat: Council President Jeff Gahan. Republican: mayors here. Barring something unforeseen, there won’t be none. 2007 Results: England 4,018, Hubbard (R) 3,744. any key issues that set a fire to this race. Bennett’s issue 2011 Forecast: Gahan defeated Irv Stumler, who had the will be his steady management of city resources through backing out outgoing Mayor Doug England Democratic, tough economic and budgeting times. Nation will hammer by about 350 votes. With no Republican on the ballot, the on big picture issues such as a “vision” for the future, an council president is poised to lead city hall. Horse Race arena in which Bennett is obviously uncomfortable. At this Status: Safe Gahan point, it looks like Bennett’s race to lose. Some voters here are finally expressing a desire to stop this revolving door New Castle at city hall and restore some continuity to the mayor’s of- Democrat: Greg York. Republican: John Nipp. 2007 fice. Nation will have the difficult task of convincing them Results: Small (R) 2,919, Boles (D) 2,504. 2011 Fore- that, once again, an incumbent deserves to be turned out. cast: York defeated former mayor Sherman Boles in the Horse Race Status: Tossup Democratic primary after Mayor Small retired. Horse Race Status: Tossup Vincennes Democrat: Joseph Yochum. Republican: Terry Mooney. Richmond 2007 Results: Baldwin (D) 2,456, Mooney (R) 1,663. Democrat: Mayor Sally Hutton. Republican: Councilman 2011 Forecast: Mooney is attempting to regain the may- Bob Goodwin. 2007 Results: Hutton (D) 4,122, Thalls (R) or’s office after losing to James Baldwin in 2007. Yochum 3,199. 2011 Forecast: Hutton easily cruised to a primary easily defeated Mayor Baldwin in the Democratic primary win and will face Councilman Goodwin. Hutton said jobs 1,245 to 470. Horse Race Status: Tossup v and economic development will be the big issues in the HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

the latest coming in the House Tuesday where 318 mem- Signal votes in Congress bers refused to raise the debt ceiling, including 80 Demo- crats and U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly. The Senate voted down the Ryan budget. The as storm clouds gather Obama budget got zero votes in the House. “It was a show and tell vote as opposed to one across the globe that was serious,” said U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar from his Broad Ripple campaign headquarters on Wednesday. By BRIAN A. HOWEY This is scary stuff. INDIANAPOLIS - The U.S. housing market con- Yes, the senator responded. “We’re two tinues to tank. The Wall Street Journal reported this week months away from this Aug. 2 deadline the Secretary of that people have lost an average of 23 percent of their the Treasury has set,” Lugar explained. “There is no longer home values in the last nine legislation authorizing the United States to years. take on more debt. People may or may not Job creation in May was believe that Aug. 2 is really the deadline. My only at 38,000, well below the guess is investors in our markets and other 190,000 job forecast. markets around the world are watching ‘ There are hints that the closely and apprehensively because this is economic bubble in the Chinese going on at the same time that the Euro- economy may burst. pean Union is being tested severely by the And there’s the teetering problems of Greece, in particular, Spain and European Union where Greece, Portugal coming after that. It’s not clear that Spain, Ireland and Portugal will the Euro will be able to withstand the assault likely need rescue. on Europeans Union finances.” On Wednesday, under Lugar continued that all of this is the screaming Drudge Report coupled “with the thoughts that the United headline “On the Verge of a Great States might not be able to pay all of its Depression,” CNBC reported: Wall bills. You pay the bondholders so you don’t Street is having a hard time figur- default on the bonds. But it raises the ques- ing out what to do now that the tion, who else do you pay?” U.S. economy appears to be sput- He noted that 70 percent of the tering and yields are so low, Peter federal budget goes for Social Security, Yastrow, market strategist for Medicare, Medicaid and the Department of Yastrow Origer, told CNBC. “What Defense. we’ve got right now is almost “The question will rapidly be which near panic going on with money parts of our government do not get paid?” managers and people who are he said. “There are consequences to all of responsible for money,” he said. Sen. Lugar meets with volunteers at his this. If you’re an investor this is likely to lead “They can not find a yield and you campaign headquarters in Broad Ripple to considerable anxiety.” just don’t want to be putting your on Wednesday. (HPI Photo by Brian A. It was a symbolic vote when money into commodities or things Howey) Indiana’s freshmen Republicans voted not that are punts that might work to raise the debt ceiling. To vote otherwise out or they might not depending would have drawn the wrath of constituents on what happens with the economy.” back home. Getting spending under control was a constant Another CNBC writer, Patrick Allen, wrote: The theme in the 2010 campaigns they ran. last month has been a horror show for the U.S. economy, The New York Times reported: The preordained with economic data falling off a cliff, according to Mike outcome followed several acts of odd political theater on Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London. “It the House floor: Republicans urged the defeat of their seems that almost every bit of data about the health of the own measure, while Democrats - who not long ago were US economy has disappointed expectations recently,” said seeking just such a vote to raise the debt ceiling without Riddell, in a note sent to CNBC on Wednesday. attaching spending cuts - assailed Republicans for bringing Into this breach of confidence charged Congress, it up, saying its certain defeat might unnerve the financial which this past week broached a number of “signal votes,” markets. Just in case, Republican leaders scheduled the

HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

vote for after the stock market’s close, and in the preceding budget. I wanted to support them. We’re together with all days called Wall Street executives to assure them that the of them. I convened a meeting with Mitch Daniels because vote was just for show, to show Mr. Obama that he would he wanted meet with them. I invited the entire Indiana have to make concessions in budget negotiations if a debt- delegation. It is Republicans who are going to support each limit increase is to pass Congress. other in this.” “This vote, based on legislation I’ve introduced, will Daniels said on ABC’s “This Week” last Sunday that and must fail,” said U.S. Dave Camp, Republican of Michi- Medicare should be the “litmus test” and “it is the central gan and chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. dilemma and it ought therefore to be the center piece of U.S. Rep. Mike Pence explained, “With a $14 the next election. We ought to test the proposition and I trillion national debt, the American people are fed up and have faith the answer will be ‘yes’ and Americans are up to want us to change the way Washington spends the people’s the solution once they have the facts.” money. Because I cannot support increasing the debt ceil- The drama will likely continue for the next 60 ing without real and meaningful spending reductions and days. Not only is there Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s reforms, I will not support H.R. 1954. To get the American debt deadline, there will be the Afghanistan drawdown, all people back to work, we need to embrace policies that will while 2012 Congressional campaigns get underway. promote growth and investment, but everything starts with Lugar is already facing an intense challenge from putting our fiscal house in order.” Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who signalled his op- Pence was joined by Indiana freshman U.S. Reps. position to raising the debt limit last week. Todd Young, Marlin Stutzman, Larry Bucshon and Todd Earlier in the day Lugar spent time at the Columbia Rokita. “These are important actions and I cannot allow Club with the Marion County Republican Finance Commit- for our government to continue down this path of reck- tee along with 17 elected officials. He gave them a detailed less spending and endless debt,” said Bucshon. Stutzman review of the theater in Washington. explained, “I will vote no for increasing the ‘debt limit’ as Lugar said the housing crisis “is likely to lead to a the out of control spending of Washington must be cur- situation of no growth or worse still, a potential for another tailed before we even discuss an increase. If Congress recession. So a lot rides on the next 60 days.” cannot come to an agreement on increasing the public debt He noted his support for the Ryan budget vote in then Secretary Geithner will have to look into prioritizing the Senate, one of 40 Republicans to do so. “Congress- our national debt. Prioritizing the ‘debt’ will allow for Social man Ryan did offer a budget that cuts spending, but it also Security, the Military and Veteran’s Affairs to maintain their attempts to save Medicare,” Lugar said. “It’s the first time programs and not affect those that depend on them. The someone has had the courage to enter into a situation President must come to the table with budget reforms; he where every expert says it could fail and it will fail faster doesn’t understand the financial situation the nation is in.” than Social Security, which will fail after that.” Young added, “My goal in this Congress is to create Lugar said that it’s time to get serious about the an atmosphere where jobs can grow and the economy can nation’s finances. Asked what could stave off the dreaded thrive. To help create jobs, we must let businesses know double dip recession, Lugar said, “The importance of that we are serious about reducing our debt and removing passing a budget rapidly that has large spending cuts and the threat of massive tax increases to pay for our unsus- adopting a program to save Medicare, now that we’re into tainable spending.” that argument we need to settle it. Absent that there will But the drama wasn’t limited to Republicans. be continued fear and misinformation. And the sooner we “I voted against raising the debt ceiling yesterday because do this the better for confidence in our economy and job the legislation did not also include spending cuts,” Donnelly creation.” explained. “Raising the debt ceiling is critical to preserving When House Republicans met with President the fragile economic recovery that is under way, but, as the Obama at the White House, a source told NBC’s Chuck outcome of yesterday’s vote made clear - 318 members Todd, Ryan concluded, “Leaders have to lead, and you voted no - further spending cuts will have to be part of any haven’t done it yet.” House Republicans then gave Ryan a deal. I am hopeful Democrats and Republicans will soon standing ovation. reach an agreement that will be good for the economy and A White House source has a different version of the federal budget.” events: [Ryan] was very nervous and defensive. POTUS Speaker John Boehner called conversations with pointed out that he disagreed with Ryan’s plan because President Obama Wednesday “very frank” but called for he didn’t think we should change Medicare fundamentally greater spending cuts. to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. And that both sides Asked if he had counseled Indiana’s freshmen con- shouldn’t demagogue, which is something he knows some- gressman about the financial perils, Lugar said, “That’s why thing about since he has been called the “job killing, death I voted for the Ryan budget. They had voted for the Ryan panel, probably-wasn’t-born-here president.” v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 11 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

A property’s total tax rate is the sum of the tax Guidelines for the rates of the county, township, school corporation, library, and other special districts, and the tax rate of the city or town, if the property is located in one. property tax caps Tax-cap credits are a part of the tax bill not By LARRY DeBOER paid by taxpayers, so they are revenue not received by WEST LAFAYETTE - Indiana caps property taxes local governments. Revenue losses are divided among for taxpayers, at 1 percent of gross assessed value for local governments, based on their shares in the total tax homesteads, 2 percent for other residential property and rate. The caps ignore debt-service tax rates in Lake and St. farmland, and 3 percent for everything else. The results Joseph counties and rates passed by referenda anywhere. of this simple system turn out to be pretty complicated, Now for those guidelines. but there are guidelines that make things a little easier to If the tax rate on your property is less than $2 per understand. First, though, let’s take a look at the how the $100 assessed value, you won’t qualify for tax cap credits, tax caps work. unless you own a house assessed at more than $200,000. Homesteads are in the No rental housing, farmland or business property will 1-percent category. A homestead qualify. Local governments that operate in places where the is an owner-occupied primary tax rate is less than $2 lose little revenue. About 85 percent residence. That means rental of these places are outside of cities or towns. That’s where housing isn’t included (it’s not most farmland is, so most of it doesn’t get tax-cap credits. owner-occupied). Second homes If the tax rate on your property is between $2 and (they’re not primary) and resi- $3, you might qualify for tax-cap credits if your house is dential swimming pools (they’re assessed between $100,000 and $200,000. Your rental not residences) aren’t included housing, second home or farmland will qualify. Since most either. All that non-homestead rental housing is located in cities or towns, where tax rates residential property is in the 2 are higher than $2, rental housing receives the most tax- percent tax-cap category, along cap credits statewide. with farmland. The 3 percent If the tax rate on your property is above $3, category includes commercial, almost all your rental, farmland and business property will industrial, and utility land and buildings, and all personal qualify for tax cap credits, and your house will qualify if it’s property, which is mostly business equipment. assessed at more than $100,000. Consider a homestead assessed at $200,000. It Three-quarters of places with cities or towns have gets a $45,000 standard deduction, so $155,000 remains. tax rates higher than $2. About 97 percent of all tax-cap A 35-percent supplemental deduction is applied to that re- credits are losses to governments in those places. mainder. That’s $54,250. Most homeowners get the $3,000 Looks like $2 and $3 are the important thresholds. mortgage deduction. The net assessment after these de- Keep those rates in mind, and it’s a little bit easier to un- v ductions is $97,750. That’s the taxable assessed value. derstand Indiana’s property-tax cap system. The tax cap for this homestead is 1 percent of gross assessed value, or $2,000. Taxable AV is a little less DeBoer is professor of agricultural economics at than half of gross AV, so a tax rate a little more than double Purdue University the 1 percent cap rate puts the tax bill over the cap. A tax rate of $2.05 per $100 assessed value would do it. Tax bills over the cap receive credits, an amount subtracted from the tax bill to bring it down to the cap. The tax cap for a $100,000 homestead is $1,000. The taxable assessment calculation yields $32,750, a bit less than one-third of gross AV. The homestead would get a credit if the tax rate was $3.06 or more. Property in the 2 percent and 3 percent categories receives much less in deductions. Statewide, more than 80 percent of all deductions go to homesteads. That means property in the 2 percent category will get tax cap credits if the tax rate is higher than $2. Property in the 3-percent category will be eligible if the tax rate is higher than $3. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 12 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

households. With two workers and children, a family must Commuting policy proves decide its location based on many factors. Where are the jobs, where are the schools and churches, where is the medical care, where is the recreation, where are the ame- to be a complex task nities that give relief from the daily grind? By MORTON J. MARCUS Some counties balance commuting inflows and INDIANAPOLIS - Where we work may be in a dif- outflows. DeKalb and Jackson each has about as many ferent county from where we live. Therefore, the Indiana commuters in-bound as they have out-bound. Should this Department of Revenue asks us to report where we work. be a goal? Then they tabulate how many of us work in our county of Marion County is a well-known magnet for jobs residence to make sure that both the home and the work with more than 4 times as many in-bound as out-bound counties get their just optional income tax receipts. commuters. That same ratio holds for Vigo County. In 2009, the latest year for which we have data, Vanderburgh, Elkhart, Monroe, Howard and Allen 80 percent of Hoosiers worked in counties are acknowledged centers of employment with the county where they lived with the at least twice as many in-bound as out-bound commuters. other 20 percent going elsewhere to However, few might believe that St. Joseph County (South work. This hardly changed from the Bend-Mishawaka) is no more a magnet than is Jefferson data 10 years earlier. County (Madison) with 123 in-commuters for each 100 out- Should we have policies for com- bound. muting? Should we proclaim in our Similarly, we all recognize Hamilton County as a town/county we provide jobs for all net exporter of labor where the outflows of workers exceed our residents without them going the inflows. Yet it might come as a surprise that the ratio of someplace else to find employment? the flows to and from Hamilton is virtually equal to that of This sounds like a very green thing to Huntington County. say: “Cut the commuting; save time If in the coming campaigns, mayoral candidates and protect the environment.” start to pronounce policies for commuting, let’s hope they Allen County leads the state, followed very closely understand the complexity of those lives enmeshed in daily by Vigo and Tippecanoe counties in having jobs for its travels. v citizens. They are self-reliant with fewer than 6 percent of their workers commuting to employment elsewhere. Mr. Marcus is an independent economist, speaker, Least self-supporting are Hendricks, Hancock, War- and writer formerly with IU’s Kelley School of Busi- rick, and Ohio counties. They each send at least 44 percent ness. of their labor force to other counties for employment. Should our economic development agencies find jobs for the unfortunate who must commute to make a de- Daniels honors Bill Cook cent wage? Is it time to liberate our citizens from their daily BLOOMINGTON - Gov. Mitch Daniels presented the automotive confinement? state’s highest honor, the 2011 Sachem, to the family of What do Floyd and Marion counties have in com- late leader, innovator, and philanthropist William A. “Bill” mon? Both have in-bound commuters as one-quarter of Cook this evening during a celebration of Mr. Cook’s life their workforce. Are those in-bound commuters taking jobs at the Indiana University Auditorium in Bloomington. Carl away from our residents? Do they push down wages? Do Cook accepted the award on behalf of the Cook family. we embrace open borders or do we seize the opportunity “Bill Cook did so many great things, but even more to capture these non-residents and house them in our com- important, he did so many right things,” Daniels said when munity? he announced that Cook would receive the recognition. “In- The inflow and outflow of workers can seem like a diana will always revere his character and example beyond pathetic waste of resources. Stand on a busy street cor- all the jobs he created and history he preserved. His was ner and watch the cars moving past. Virtually every one truly a life worth emulating.” of those autos carries a single passenger. All that metal Indiana University President Michael McRobbie and fuel to move just one person north and another south. served as the master of ceremonies and John Mellencamp All that time devoted to slogging through traffic in a daily performed during the memorial service. Several speakers dance of opposite directions. contributed to the program by discussing Cook’s vast influ- To other eyes, commuting is an essential compo- ence in many fields, including medicine, philanthropy and nent of achieving balance among the diverse desires of historical preservation. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 13 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

Doug Ross, NWI Times: Months ago, I was sure president. In 2010, Indiana got caught up in the tea party Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels would run for president. The thing and Republicans won control of the Indiana House. more he delayed his announcement, the less certain I They already had the Senate. But all that political power became. But I no longer see Daniels as a serious presiden- is tearing apart Hoosier Republicans, particularly since the tial candidate in the future. That’s a shame. It would have tea folks are out to oust moderate Republican Sen. Rich- been fun. Daniels is a conservative, and to be on the ballot ard Lugar, one of the nation’s foremost statesmen. Feeling for the general election, he would have to win the support somewhat omnipotent after the 2010 election, Indiana of conservatives in the various primary elections. His hon- Republicans ran roughshod over anyone who got in their esty in saying he couldn’t convince his family to support his way — particularly women. By rights, Democrats should presidential bid put a serious dent in any future presiden- have fielded a woman for governor but that’s not going to tial prospects. It brings to mind a favorite scene from the happen. Gregg will have to take up the cause. But, things hilarious movie, “My Big Fat Greek Wedding,” in which the aren’t as hunky-dory as Republicans like to think they father insists he is the head of the family. After he leaves are. Remember that saying, “Power tends to corrupt, and the room, his wife tells their daughter that yes, her hus- absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Well, that’s pretty band is the head of the family, but the wife is the neck and much what Republicans did during the recently concluded can turn the head any way she wants. So Daniels might be General Assembly. They did what they did — in many in- the head of his family, but the neck -- his wife and daugh- stances — largely because they had the votes to do so, not ters -- turned him the direction they wanted. If because that’s what the people of Indiana wanted. he decides to run for president at some point in And they did a lot of it on the backs of women. the future, you can bet his detractors would say That’s why Democratic state Sen. Vi Simpson something like, “He wants to be the leader of would have made a fine candidate for governor. If the free world, but he can’t even lead his family.” I were Gregg, I’d spend a good bit of time talking Mean-spirited and unfair, yes, but the presidential about how the Republicans this year took health race is a rough-and-tumble competition. That’s a care away from lower-income women when they shame. v eliminated all funding for Planned Parenthood. v

Lesley Stedman Weidenbener, Louisville Rich James, Post-Tribune: Gov. Mitch Daniels’ Courier-Journal: Gov. Mitch Daniels last week disap- decision not to seek the Republican nomination for presi- pointed his close advisers, supporters and friends when dent in 2012 has pumped new life into Indiana’s struggling he announced he would not jump into the presidential Democratic Party. Had Daniels run and won the Republican race. Many were surprised by the decision, even though nomination, it would have been virtually impossible for he has said repeatedly over the past year that the choice a Democrat to win next year’s governor’s race. Like the of whether to run would likely come down to his family. weather, politics can change quickly in Indiana. It appears And indeed, though it appears Daniels was fully prepared a virtual certainty that the governor’s race will come down to jump into the race, his wife and four daughters said no to Democrat John Gregg, the former speaker of the Indi- — and so he did too. I’ve heard from a number of readers ana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. Rep. about this. For some, the decision is only confirmation that Mike Pence. It ought to be an interesting race for a num- Daniels would have been the “family values” candidate that ber of reasons. Gregg is witty and extremely bright. And conservatives were seeking. A few have complained that if you looked up Hoosier in the dictionary, you might see Daniels’ family would prevent him from doing something his picture. With his well-coifed gray hair, Pence looks like so important for the country. And there were others who a governor. But, Pence makes the tea party people seem thought Daniels could have been just a little less specific like liberals. Gregg is a regular kind of guy. Pence will try about his reasons. He could have called it a “family deci- to hide behind “Hoosier values” to legislate morality. Two sion” rather than being so forthright that his family actually decades or so ago, Gregg wouldn’t have had that much of vetoed the idea. Regardless, those who are frustrated by chance to be governor. The only Democrats back then with his decision or shocked that he would say no need only to a chance to win had names ending in Bayh and O’Bannon. stop and truly consider what a family must endure to run But, Indiana has changed. There are fewer farmers, which for president. The entire family would be living in a bubble, means an erosion of a substantial part of the Republican just when his daughters — all young adults — would be base. And as the middle class declines, more people are trying to build their own lives. The Daniels home in Carmel doing without and they tend to vote Democratic. And Indi- would have to be secured. Cheri and Mitch Daniels could ana not only became a blue state in 2008 — the first time not have just picked up and visited their daughters in their since 1964 — they did so as America elected its first black homes without incredible security. v HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 14 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

a dim view of similar efforts to ban said. “It can only be accomplished HHS rejects law specific providers from federal funds. through objective self-evaluation and banning PPIN Indiana officials should have expected evaluation of our policies. Most impor- the rejection, Berwick wrote. “We as- tantly ... we want to truly figure out WASHINGTON - The U.S. sume this decision is not unexpected,” what happened to this little boy.” Health and Human Services Depart- Berwick wrote. “As the Indiana Leg- ment rejected changes in Indiana’s islative Services Agency indicated in Medicaid plan Wednesday, saying its April 19, 2011, fiscal impact state- Romney seeks it illegally bans funding for Planned ment, ‘While states are permitted to Parenthood, and sought to make clear waive a recipient’s freedom of choice second chance that a similar fate awaits other states of a provider to implement managed WASHINGTON - What are that pass legislation barring any quali- care, restricting freedom of choice the odds of this? A guy gets into a fied health care with respect to providers of family head-on collision, has a police officer provider (As- planning services is prohibited.’” The write “He is dead” at the scene, and sociated Press). Health and Human Services notice, lives to tell (Associated Press). Mitt In a letter sent written by Cindy Mann, the director Romney knows a thing or two about to Indiana’s of the Center for Medicaid, Indiana’s second chances. After that long-ago Medicaid direc- Children’s Health Insurance Program highway collision when he was a tor, Medicaid and Survey & Certification, emphasizes young missionary serving in France, Administrator that states may bar providers from Romney earned an outsized reputation Donald M. Berwick said Indiana’s plan participating in Medicaid in certain and millions of dollars as a corporate will bar beneficiaries improperly from circumstances, such as if a provider turnaround artist, fixing bottom lines, receiving services. Federal law requires is committing fraud or criminal acts. cleaning up the scandal-tarred Salt Medicaid beneficiaries to be able to “States are not, however, permitted to Lake City Olympics and giving vari- obtain services from any qualified exclude providers from the program ous other endeavors a second wind. provider. “Medicaid programs may not solely on the basis of the range of Now he is determined to do that for exclude qualified health care provid- medical services they provide,” Mann himself. (And his country, he would ers from providing services that are wrote.” say.) “I’ve never seen an enterprise in funded under the program because of more desperate need of a turnaround a provider’s scope of practice,” Berwick than the U.S. government,” Romney wrote in a letter to Patricia Cassanova, Top DSC officials says. An also-ran to John McCain the director of Indiana’s office of in the 2008 Republican nomination Medicaid Policy and Planning. “Such to probe boys death fight, Romney is the closest thing to a a restriction would have a particular INDIANAPOLIS- Three high- front-runner that the still-jelling GOP effect on beneficiaries’ ability to access level staff members from the Indiana presidential field for 2012 has to offer. family planning providers.” Indiana’s Department of Child Services will On Thursday, the former Massachu- law bars Planned Parenthood offices in review the circumstances surrounding setts governor makes his candidacy the state from receiving federal money 13-year-old Christian Choate’s death, official during an appearance at a farm because the agency provides abor- a DCS spokeswoman said Wednesday. in Stratham, N.H. tions, among other services. Indiana DCS spokeswoman Ann Houseworth should change its plan to conform said the team will look for systematic with federal law, or the state could issues that may have contributed to McShurley tangles face penalties, the letter said, noting the boy’s death (NWI Times). Last that Indiana has 60 days to appeal. month, Lake County police unearthed with Black Expo In the past, state Medicaid plans that remains, believed to be Choate’s, from did not conform with federal law have MUNCIE - Indiana Black Expo a shallow grave in a mobile home park been changed by states before Health officials on Wednesday resolved a north of the intersection of Ridge Road and Human Services enforced any dispute between local Black Expo vol- and Colfax Avenue in Gary. Authorities penalties. In addition to Berwick’s let- unteers and Mayor Sharon McShurley’s are waiting on the results of DNA test- ter, Health and Human Services also administration that some feared could ing to positively identify the body. “We posted a notice Wednesday to other cause a last-minute cancellation of this are committed to improving Indiana’s interested parties, seeking to make weekend’s celebration at Heekin Park. child welfare system,” Houseworth clear that the department would take After a call from the mayor, members HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 15 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011

of the state Black Expo organiza- struction Tony Bennett said it’s simply nesses and hold city government tion on Wednesday agreed to pay unacceptable to have six straight years and its partners accountable for their the $5,000 fee required for off-duty of failing schools. “The state isn’t be- progress, Winnecke calls for an “Angel Muncie Police Department officers ing aggressive enough,” he said. “The Network venture capital group.” “An to provide security at the three-day fact that we have children in com- Evansville Angel Network will exam- event (Muncie Star Press). The dispute munities who spend their entire high ine business proposals from budding came to a head Wednesday morn- school and junior high years in bad entrepreneurs through a web-based ing, when the city board of public schools — that’s not the fault of the portal managed by the city,” Win- works did not approve a street closing kids or the parents, that’s the fault of necke’s proposal states. “Business and noise ordinance variance for the state leadership to say `We should not ‘angels’ would pay an annual fee to weekend event because organizers tolerate this.’ ” The 18 schools are in have access to proposed business had not made arrangements for MPD urban areas, with seven in Indianapo- plans, which in turn will cover the security. “We will be having the sum- lis Public Schools. city’s expense to develop and maintain mer celebration thanks to our state the portal.” office,” Ren’a Wagner, president of the Muncie chapter of Indiana Black Expo, McGauley may said Wednesday afternoon. “They’ve Carter seeks challenge Peters agreed to help us pay this huge secu- political return rity bill that was given to us this morn- FORT WAYNE - With months ing by the city of Muncie.” The local to go before the fall’s city election, NOBLESVILLE - Saying he has IBE president and McShurley offered the 2012 Republican primary could a “fire in (his) belly,” former two-term somewhat different accounts of an already have a hotly contested race Hamilton County Sheriff Doug Carter earlier discussion they had regarding (Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). Allen is seeking a return to public service the cost of security for the Heekin Park County Recorder John McGauley filed (Indianapolis Star). Carter will run event. “The mayor and I did talk about paperwork Wednesday to create an for the Steve Holt’s Hamilton County security at length, but this $5,000 exploratory committee for the county commissioner seat next year. Holt, 62, never came up,” Wagner said. For commissioner seat now held by Nelson who represents Westfield and much of her part, McShurley said Black Expo Peters. Both are Republicans. While northern Hamilton County, announced organizers were given plenty of notice the filing only allows him to raise last week that he wouldn’t run for re- of the city’s intention to collect fees for money in an effort to gauge support, election in 2012. “When (Holt) decided security at the event. McGauley said he is “100 percent” not to run again, I saw an opportunity committed to seeking the post. That to serve the citizens of Hamilton Coun- won’t be changed by Peters’ decision ty again,” Carter said. “I’ve received a 18 schools face or if anyone else decides to run, he tremendous amount of support from state takeover said. “It will impact how I do it, not if people to get back into public service.” I do it,” he said. Peters said he heard INDIANAPOLIS - Eighteen about the filing but has not made up Indiana schools have a lot riding on his mind on whether he will seek a Zoeller touts statewide test scores that will be third term. released this summer. If the schools DNC list fail again — marking a sixth consecu- TERRE HAUTE - ndiana now tive year of being on academic proba- Winnecke releases has one of the strongest “do-not-call” tion — the state could turn them over ‘Angel’ plan lists for cellular telephones in the na- to private companies charged with tion, Indiana Attorney General Greg spurring improvement. School lead- EVANSVILLE - In a jobs plan Zoeller said Wednesday at Indiana ers, teachers, parents and students he released Wednesday, Republican State University (Terre Haute Tribune- are sticking up for their local schools mayoral candidate Lloyd Winnecke Star). Zoeller touted passage of eight at public hearings around the state, promises to make things happen — consumer protection bills from the saying they want to retain control and with the help of some angels (Evans- 2011 session of the Indiana General that they know better than anyone ville Courier & Press). Along with the Assembly. what their districts need to succeed. traditional pledges to cut red tape, But State Superintendent of Public In- personally work with existing busi-