V16, N37 Thursday, June 2, 2011 9 mayoral races in ‘Tossup’ zone Melina Kennedy chats Ballard, Ockomon, Fincher with Kathleen Kennedy in tossups; McShurley Townsend on Tuesday. Below are vulnerable on HPI takeover list incumbents: Muncie’s Sharon McShurley and By BRIAN A. HOWEY Terre Haute’s Duke Ben- INDIANAPOLIS - While there is yet nett. to be an anti-incumbency wave sweeping across Indiana’s city streets this year, a city- by-city analysis of general election mayoral races finds a handful of incumbents with serious challenges on their hands. Muncie Mayor Sharon McShurley, Terre Haute’s Duke Bennett, Anderson’s Kris Ockomon, Logansport’s Michael Fincher, West Lafayette’s John Dennis and India- napolis Mayor Greg Ballard all appear to be poised for stern tests this November. All are rated “Tossup” except for McShurley who appears to be poised for takeover at this point in her race. Also in “Tossup” are the open Evansville mayor’s office where Democrat Rick Davis is battling Republican who could face intense challenges by Election Day. Lloyd Winnecke, as well as open city halls in Vincennes and But it comes after a relative sanguine primary sea- New Castle. son for incumbents. Bloomington Mayor Mark Kruzan, East HPI rates two “leans” races in favor of Fort Wayne Chicago Mayor Anthony Copeland, Hammond’s Thomas Mayor Tom Henry and Goshen Mayor Allan Kauffman, both Continued on page 3 Hamlet’s victors, losers By JACK COLWELL SOUTH BEND - Who won, who lost, when Mitch Daniels concluded his Hamlet bit - to run or not to run - saying a run was not to be? “With a $14 trillion national Daniels, who wanted to run and had orchestrated a way debt, the American people are to do so with substantial support, appears to be the big loser because fed up and want us to change he couldn’t get the support that the way Washington spends the mattered most, from his family. He lost the chance to be president or at people’s money.” least a real shot at being a nominee with major national impact on is- - U.S. Rep. Mike Pence sues. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011 Even though his spokesmen dia, the political blogs and the oppo- say he had a clear path to the Repub- nents for the presidential nomination. lican nomination, nobody knows for A veto came. sure how clear or cluttered that path Daniels still could go on as a would have been. winner nationally in a Republican ad- www.HoweyPolitics.com Daniels’ intelligence brings ministration as a key Cabinet member. understanding of the big policy issues Vice presidential nominee? He hasn’t and confidence of finding solutions. ruled it out, although that also would Howey Politics Yet, would he have been able to keep bring scrutiny on the “revelations” that Indiana attention on those big issues or would sidetracked his presidential bid. is a non-partisan newsletter his campaign instead have been beset Most analysts of the field of based in Indianapolis. It was by flaps over trivial, divisive matters, prospects for the Republican presiden- founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. bringing loss in a thankless effort? tial nomination calculate that those There would have been more benefitting most will be three former delving into the governors, Mitt Rom- Brian A. Howey, Publisher Daniels’ family se- ney of Massachusetts, Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington crets by the news Tim Pawlenty of Min- Jack E. Howey, editor media, the political nesota and Jon Hunts- Beverly K. Phillips, associate blogs and the op- man of Utah, who also position. served as ambassador editor Cheri Dan- to China. iels, the governor’s Daniels, one Subscriptions wife, is a loser of of the favorites of the $350 annually HPI Weekly the privacy she has GOP establishment, long sought. would have taken sup- $550 annually HPI Weekly and When the port and funding from HPI Daily Wire. governor arranged Pawlenty and Hunts- 'Call 317.627.6746 for her to deliver man. a highly publicized Daniels also May 12 speech at a was seen by key Contact HPI big GOP fundraiser national GOP opera- Howey Politics Indiana in Indianapolis, it tives as someone who 6255 N. Evanston Ave. appeared that she could move up quickly Indianapolis, IN 46220 and the four Dan- to challenge Romney, www.howeypolitics.com iels daughters wouldn’t veto a presi- the front-runner but with baggage that dential run. She certainly would not could slow him down. [email protected] have spoken in the national spotlight if In Indiana, Democratic leaders 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 a veto already was cast. breathed sighs of relief at removal of 'Washington: 703.248.0909 Alas, there then came the chance of Daniels for president at 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 national news media focus on the the top of the Republican ticket. couple’s divorce and remarriage - with Prospects of electing Con- Cheri Daniels between those mar- gressman Joe Donnelly, expected © 2011, Howey Politics Indiana. riages moving to California and marry- to be the Democratic nominee for All rights reserved. Photocopy- ing another man - and messy details, the U.S. Senate, and former House ing, Internet forwarding, fax- including a vicious denunciation by Speaker John Gregg, likely Democratic ing or reproducing in any form, that man’s former wife and sugges- nominee for governor, would have whole or part, is a violation of tions that Mrs. Daniels abandoned her been diminished if not destroyed with children. Hurtful accusations, whether Daniels on the ballot for president. federal law without permission true or false. Indiana could even be in from the publisher. v The intense scrutiny on play again in the presidential race. It anyone deemed a serious presidential wouldn’t have been with a Hoosier prospect would have brought more leading the Republican ticket. delving into all this by the news me- A possible winner in the HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, June 2, 2011 Daniels decision is Sen. Dick Lugar, who is in a tussle with a chance of becoming Indiana’s first woman governor Tea Party favorite for the GOP Senate nomination. Lugar, a through Daniels resigning in order to pursue the presiden- political mentor and long-time friend of Daniels, could use tial nomination full-time. Daniels had said that was some- support now from the governor. While in the midst of con- thing he would have to consider. templating a presidential race, Daniels said he would vote First, though, he had to consider a family veto. The for Lugar but not otherwise take sides in the senatorial presidential race, no matter how orchestrated, how close or nomination battle. Now, free of concern over alienating Tea how promising, was not to be. v Party voters nationally, he could get more involved helping Lugar. Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman also lost any possible cades for the South Bend Tribune. the keys to City Hall, but didn’t immediately turn over his Mayors, from page 1 title as mayor. “They keys may be surrendered, but that’s not the issue here,” said Smith at the time. Ockomon, on McDermott Jr., Hobart’s Brian Snedecor and Carmel’s Jim his first day as mayor, defended his claim that he lived in Brainard all cruised to easy victories after well-publicized an Anderson home and not at his family’s home outside primary challenges last May. city limits. Ockomon calls a suit filed last week, asking The dynamic change comes a little more than half that Smith remain in office pending a court ruling over the a year after Republicans took over the Indiana House and residency issue, an act of desperation. “I believe the timing three Congressional seats as the antithesis of President was poor and I think it reads very loudly of sour grapes,” Obama’s 2008 change message rattled Hoosier political said Ockomon. Ockomon has faced allegations of sexual circles. And it comes after the 2007 elections when 40 per- harassment during his first term that were rejected by the cents were defeated for reelection. EEOC, but may face a civil suit. Given the past bitterness Here is our early summer preview of mayoral races and the two nominees primary performances, this race has from around the state: all the trappings of being close. Horse Race Status: Tos- sup Anderson Democrat: Mayor Kris Okomon. Republican: Bloomington Kevin Smith. 2007 Results: Ockomon (D) 7,757, Smith (R) Democrat: Mayor Mark Kruzan. Republican: Vacant. 7,112, Jozwiak (I) 441, Bibbs (write-in) 350. 2011 Fore- 2007 Results: Kruzan (D) 5,937, Sabbagh (R) 3,729. cast: This is a rematch between Democratic Mayor Kris 2011 Forecast: Kruzan easily defeated John Hamilton in Ockomon and former Republican mayor Kevin Smith, who the primary and does not have a Republican opponent yet. lost his reelection bid in 2007. Kruzan will easily win a third term. Horse Race Status: Smith polled 79 percent in a five- Safe Kruzan way Republican primary. Ocko- mon defeated Fred Reese by 750 votes in a three-way Democratic Carmel primary race for just 55 per- Republican: Mayor James Brainard. Democrat. Vacant. cent. Reese, who was appointed 2007 Results: Brainard 9,192. Winckler (D) 2,068, Spie- Ockomon’s parks superintendent gelman (I) 2,557. 2011 Forecast: Brainard will easily win before the mayor suspended him a fourth term. Break out the cellos. Horse Race Status: and he was ultimately removed, Safe Brainard said he would support Ockomon in the fall general election, the Columbus Anderson Herald-Bulletin reported.