Vol. 58 (3) - July 2009 BulletinFeature articles | Interviews | News | Book reviews | Calendar www.wmo.int Y 2009 UL World Climate Conference-3 e 58 (3) - J 31 August–4 September 2009 Volum

A history of climate activities 141

etin Disaster risk reduction, climate risk management and sustainable development MO Bull 165 W

World Meteorological Organization

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Climate information in Water and climate: issues, examples ISSN 0042-9767 decision-making in the Greater and potential in the context of Food security under Horn of Africa 184 hydrological prediction 197 a changing climate 205 The major expected outcome of World Climate Conference-3 is an international framework facilitating efforts to reduce the risks and realize the benefits associated with current and future climate conditions by incorporating climate prediction and information services into decision-making. Bulletin The journal of the Contents World Meteorological Organization In this issue ...... 139 A history of climate activities by John W. Zillman ...... 141 Volume 58 (3) - July 2009 World Climate Research Programme: achievements, activities and challenges by Antonio J. Busalacchi and Ghassem R. Asrar ...... 151 Secretary-General M. Jarraud Deputy Secretary-General Hong Yan World Climate Conference-3: towards a Global Framework for Assistant Secretary-General J. Lengoasa Climate Services ...... 162 The WMO Bulletin is published quarterly Disaster risk reduction, climate risk management and sustainable (January, April, July, October) in English, French, development by Margareta Wahlström ...... 165 Russian and Spanish editions. Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the Editor Hong Yan CORDEX framework by Filippo Giorgi, Colin Jones and Ghassem R. Asrar ..... 175 Associate Editor Judith C.C. Torres Climate information in decision-making in the Greater Horn of Africa: Editorial board Hong Yan (Chair) lessons and experiences by Laban Ogallo and Christopher Oludhe ...... 184 J. Torres (Secretary) G. Asrar (climate research) Climate risk management in western South America: implementing L. Barrie (atmospheric research and a successful information system by Rodney Martínez Güingla and environment) G. Love (weather and disaster risk reduction) Affonso Mascarenhas ...... 188 E. Manaenkova (policy, external relations) R. Masters (development, regional activities) Water and climate: issues, examples and potential in the context B. Ryan (satellites) of hydrological prediction by Ann Calver ...... 197 M. Sivakumar (climate) A. Tyagi (water) Food security under a changing climate by Hideki Kanamaru ...... 205 J. Wilson (education and training) Wenjian Zhang (observing and information systems) Obituary ...... 210

Subscription rates Fifty years ago ...... 212 Surface mail Air mail 1 year CHF 60 CHF 85 News from the WMO Secretariat ...... 214 2 years CHF 110 CHF 150 3 years CHF 145 CHF 195 Calendar ...... 221 E-mail: [email protected] The World Meteorological Organization ...... 222 Index to WMO Bulletin 58 (2009) ...... 223

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World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) will bring together scientists, high-level policy-makers and global business leaders and decision-makers to push forward global actions that enable society to become more resilient to current and future changes in climate. The focus is on the development and use of seasonal to multidecadal climate predictions for decision-making in socio- economic sectors. These sectors include food and agriculture, water, health, disaster preparedness and risk management, environment, forestry and fishery, tourism, transportation and energy, among others. Presentations will include information about advancements in climate predictions and services. WCC-3 follows the successes of the first and second World Climate Conferences, which mobilized global awareness of climate change and eventually led to the establishment of the Nobel-Peace-Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

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Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009 Geneva International Conference Centre In this issue

There is little doubt now that climate economic benefits. There is an urgent response strategies to changes in change has serious development need to focus on helping climate- climate. Thanks to WCRP efforts, it is impacts. Factoring climate change vulnerable countries and communities now possible for climate scientists to into the development process is deal with this issue effectively. monitor, simulate and project global not only a fundamental necessity in climate so that climate information can terms of guiding the international World Climate Conference-3 (WCC‑3) be used for governance in decision- development policy framework takes place in Geneva, from 31 August making and in support of a wide range but also an invaluable opportunity to 4 September 2009 on the theme of practical applications. to reappraise the most pressing “Better climate information for a better needs of a highly inequitable global future” to address these concerns. Climate science today provides society, with greatly differing social, seasonal-to-interannual predictions environmental and economic levels Zillman traces the history of on various climatic parameters. of development. activities that have resulted in Short- and medium-range climate greater awareness, both at political predictions are essential for adapting The international debate on climate and scientific level, about climate to climate variations and mitigating change has focused largely on change. The article links various their impacts. The Global Framework the commitment—or failure to events over the past 50 years that for Climate Services that is likely to commit—to emissions reductions. have led to increasing cooperation emerge from WCC-3 would form This emphasis omits the pressing among countries and international the foundation for science-based need to focus on the costs of present institutions that, in turn, has led to climate information at different time- and future climate variability and international arrangements such scales, thereby building the ability its adverse impacts on vulnerable as the Intergovernmental Panel on of countries to adapt to evolving groups and climate-sensitive Climate Change assessments and the climate phenomena more effectively. ecosystems. Both technological United Nations Framework Convention The Framework would provide such equity and efficiency (mitigation) on Climate Change negotiation information at different scales from and the capacity of communities process. It looks at the way climate global to local in user-friendly format to prepare themselves for climate science and international cooperation and fulfil the needs of decision-making change (adaptation) are fundamental could further help address climate processes in various sectors. to advancing international climate challenges. change negotiations. The frequency and intensity of Busalacchi and Asrar point out major large-scale disasters related It is encouraging that recent trends that the World Climate Research to climatic events such as fires, heat­ in negotiations incorporate concerns Programme (WCRP) was established waves, droughts, landslides, floods for actions in support of adaptation in 1980 by WMO and partners to and outbreaks of disease will increase. to climate variability. Adaptation determine the predictability of Disaster prevention, preparedness, to current climate variability would climate and to determine the effect response and recovery should become address not only present situations of human activities on climate. an even greater priority for WMO but also the challenges of future These fundamental objectives have Members. Rapid response capacities climate change in terms of building laid the groundwork for society’s to climate change would need to be capacity. Early action will bring clear present adaptation and mitigation accompanied by a strategy for disaster

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 139 prevention and alert at global to local available from regional to national alter hydrological regimes, and the levels. Wahlström explores the linkages level. They identify the challenges patterns of freshwater availability. between climate change, disaster risk that need to be surmounted in order She emphasizes the need to address reduction and national development. to face the increasing demand for present climate variability and She underscores the important role climate information of all kinds and identifies some associated research that National Meteorological and incorporate it in the decision-support challenges. Hydrological Services have played— systems and climate risk management and continue to play—in providing practices in various socio-economic Understanding land and water early warnings ranging from short- sectors. linkages under a changing climate term weather events to long-term is fundamental to livelihoods, food climate variations and change. She Martínez and Mascarenhas provide security and water-related ecosystem forcefully highlights the important a glimpse of the activities of the services. With intensifying competition role that WCC-3 and its expected International Centre on El Niño for water resources, agriculture, outcome, the Global Framework, can research and how it provides inland fisheries and aquaculture are play in disaster risk reduction and climate information for climate risk expected to be significantly impacted. recovery. management in western South Hideki discusses various aspects of America. It meets the climate-related food security under the new paradigm The need for climate change infor­ needs of the various socio-economic of climate change but stresses the mation at the regional-to-local scale sectors through climate system need to give priority to present climate is one of the central issues within the monitoring, predictions of critical variability. He points to the need of global change debate. Georgi, Jones climatic elements on monthly and addressing the problems faced by and Asrar describe the status and seasonal timescales, including user small land holders who are most plans for the Coordinated Regional liaison and practical applications, and vulnerable and the role that climate climate Downscaling Experiment services tailored to users’ needs. The prediction can play in building their (CORDEX), which will help fulfil this Centre also addresses the training of resilience. need. experts in the region. Experience and expertise in designing Ogallo and Oludhe describe how Water is one of the major sectors effective adaptation strategies and the provision of climate information through which climate variability implementing policies are still limited. through Regional Climate Outlooks and change manifest their impacts It is important that the capacities be Forums helps deal with ongoing in different sectors of development. It developed to make use of climate climate variability and develop is, therefore, important to understand information in various sectors to be adaptation strategies in the Greater the impacts of climate variability, able to use this information in long- Horn of Africa. They point out the particularly extreme events (floods term planning and their day-to-day need for national monitoring and and droughts), on the availability of operation and thereby manage the preparedness programmes that water resources management plans to risks of extreme climate through respond to specific local needs and adapt to consequences of such events. sharing such experiences. It is hoped the role that regional institutions Calver explores the interrelation of that the articles in this issue will blaze play in making such information climate change, that is expected to a trail in sharing such experiences.

140 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 A history of climate activities by John W. Zillman*

Introduction well WMO and its predecessor and but on a measure of historical insight partner organizations have worked into the issues explored, challenges The third WMO (World Meteorological together to provide the framework for met and lessons learned in putting Organization)-convened World international cooperation on climate the present international institutional Climate Conference, which will be matters since the establishment of arrangements in place. While there held in Geneva from 31 August to the International Meteorological is not space, here, to retrace the 4 September 2009, should be viewed Organization (IMO) in 1873. The fascinating history of international both as an end and as a beginning. As non-governmental IMO provided climate science and services in any an end, it represents the culmination essential international coordination detail, it may be of interest, as a of some 30 years of remarkable and standardization of climatological starting point, to identify a few of progress in climate research, practices for more than 70 years, the highlights of the past 50 years monitoring, applications and impact especially, since 1929, through and especially of the 30 years since assessment under the World Climate its Commission for Climatology, the establishment of the World Programme, which was established which was re-established as an Climate Programme in 1979. Figure 1 in the wake of the First World Climate intergovernmental body by WMO provides a schematic, albeit greatly Conference in 1979 and reconstituted, in 1951 and has been maintained, simplified, summary of the milestones underpinned and refocused following albeit with a brief change of name to in the emergence of climate as an the Second World Climate Conference enhance its focus on applications, to international scientific and political in 1990. It also seems likely to mark the present day. Many of the National issue since the 1950s. the beginning of a new and more Meteorological Services (NMSs) of integrated approach to the application WMO’s now 188 Member States and of climate science to societal needs Territories owe their origins not so through the establishment of a much to their more publicly visible Origin of the new global framework for climate role in daily weather forecasting as to climate issue services which will focus powerful their national responsibility for long- new scientific capabilities on the term observation, description and While climatology has always been formidable social, economic and monitoring of climate. recognized as an important branch environmental challenges of living of the science and practice of with the large natural variability of In planning for a new global frame­ meteorology (Landsberg, 1945) and the climate and mitigating and adapting work for climate service provision basic physics of greenhouse warming to human-induced climate change. through World Climate Conference-3 has been understood for more than a (WCC‑3), it will be critically important century (Houghton, 2009), the present It is surprisingly little understood to focus the established and emerging global concern with climate issues how comprehensively and how scientific capabilities for climate really dates from the convergence of prediction on the burgeoning societal five important scientific, technological * Chairman of the International Organizing needs of a world now concerned with and geopolitical developments of the Committee for World Climate Conference‑3; climate issues as never before. But it 1950s: former President of WMO (1995-2003) and former President of the International will also be important that the new Council of Academies of Engineering and framework be based not just on a • Post-World War II advances Technological Sciences (2005) recognition of what is already in place in basic atmospheric science

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 141 Earth UNCHE WCC-1 WCC-2 WCC-3 satellites 1972 1979 1990 2009 WCED WMO EC 1987 Policy Panel UNFCCC COP 15 Digital 1992 computers 1974 2009 WCIP Toronto 1988 Application UN WCAP WCSS system UNGA cooperation 1961 Assessment IPCC WCDP 1988

Research Atmospheric GARP WCRP science 1967 1979

WWW Observation IGY 1967 GCOS

Figure 1 — The emergence of climate as an international scientific and policy issue: the five major scientific, technological and geopolitical developments on the left converged to inspire UN General Assembly (UNGA) Resolution 1721 (XVI) which triggered the establishment of the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW) and the WMO-ICSU Global Atmospheric Research Programme (GARP) and, later and less directly, the convening of the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (UNCHE). The 1974-1977 WMO EC (Executive Committee) Panel of Experts on Climate Change, set up at the request of the sixth special session of the UNGA, triggered the convening of the 1979 World Climate Conference (WCC-1) and the establishment of the four-component World Climate Programme (WCP), including the WMO-ICSU World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The 1987 report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), the 1988 Toronto Conference and the First Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shaped the agenda of the 1990 Second World Climate Conference (WCC-2), which led to the establishment of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The chart also depicts the proposed evolution of the service-oriented components of the WCP into a more integrated World Climate Services System (WCSS), built on GCOS and WCRP, to produce a new Global Framework for Climate Services (see Figure 5).

that led to greatly increased • The willingness of countries, for Science (ICSU) to collaborate understanding of the mechanisms even in the developing Cold War in developing the new scientific of the large-scale circulation of environment, to use the institutions and technological opportunities the atmosphere; of the United Nations System for monitoring, predicting and for cooperation in addressing eventually controlling, weather • Initiation of a number of new important global problems; and climate and triggered the twin geophysical observations birth of the WMO World Weather (especially the Mauna Loa which shaped the transition of Watch and the WMO/ICSU Global measurements of atmospheric climatology from a descriptive to a Atmospheric Research Programme carbon dioxide) during the 1957 physical science (Flohn, 1970) and (GARP). The World Weather Watch International Geophysical Year; opened up the prospect of diagnostic was aimed at providing the basic and predictive modelling of the global global infrastructure for supporting • Recognition of the potential climate system (Bolin, 2007). operational weather forecasting meteorological observing and for describing and monitoring capabilities of Earth-orbiting These influences were brought climate, while GARP was focused satellites; together in a 1961 United Nations on the dual objectives of improved General Assembly Resolution weather forecasting and a scientific • The advent of digital computers; which called on WMO and the non- basis for climate prediction (Davies, and governmental International Council 1990).

142 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Already by the late 1960s, as the however, and, in 1974, the sixth special USA and held in the International implementation of the World session of the General Assembly Conference Centre in Geneva from Weather Watch and GARP was called on WMO to undertake a study 12 to 23 February 1979 (Figure 2). It was getting underway, scientific concern of climate change. WMO established convened by WMO, in collaboration was beginning to mount, reinforced an Executive Committee Panel of with the United Nations Educational, by the increasing carbon dioxide Experts on Climate Change which, Scientific and Cultural Organization concentrations evident from the in its final report (Gibbs et al., 1977), (UNESCO), the Food and Agriculture early observations at Mauna Loa, largely dismissed the speculation Organization of the United Nations that human activities could, in fact, on global cooling and reaffirmed (FAO), the World Health Organization already be starting to impact on the general scientific expectation (WHO), the United Nations the Earth’s climate at global scales of greenhouse warming but stressed Environment Programme (UNEP), (SMIC, 1971). Then, in the 1970s, not the importance of making better use ICSU and other scientific partners, for the first time and certainly not of existing climate knowledge in as “a world conference of experts on for the last, a counter view emerged, learning to live with the large natural climate and mankind”. The first week quickly sensationalized by the media variability of climate. It inspired the was attended by some 350 specialists (Calder, 1974) that, rather than just early WMO planning for an inter- from 53 countries and 24 international a manifestation of the large natural agency World Climate Programme organizations and from a wide range variability of climate superimposed and triggered the WMO decision to of disciplines including agriculture, on the expected slow greenhouse convene a World Climate Conference water resources, fisheries, energy, warming trend, the devastating in 1979. environment, ecology, biology, Sahelian drought of the 1960s and medicine, sociology and economics the series of extremely cold winters The 1979 World (White, 1979). in the northern hemisphere in the early 1970s could be the harbingers Climate Conference At the end of the second week of of the Earth’s imminent descent into deliberations in a smaller group of a new ice age. The 1979 World Climate Conference, 100 invited experts from all parts of now usually referred to as the First the world, the organizers issued a They served to bring the implications World Climate Conference (FWCC or World Climate Conference Declaration of climate variability and change back WCC-1), was organized by a Committee as an appeal to nations in the following to the attention of the United Nations, chaired by Robert M. White of the terms:

Figure 2 — The opening of the World Climate Conference in February 1979. From the left: R. Schneider, Deputy Secretary-General of WMO; F. Mayor, Deputy Director-General of UNESCO; R.W. Phillips, Deputy Director-General of FAO; M.K. Tolba, Executive Director of UNEP; H. Mahler, Director-General of WHO; K.K.S. Dadzie, Director-General for Development and International Economic Cooperation of the United Nations; D.A. Davies, Secretary-General of WMO; R.M. White, Conference Chairman; Ju.A. Izrael, Acting First Vice- President of WMO; E.K. Fedorov; Sir John Kendrew, Secretary-General of ICSU; O. Vasiliev, Deputy Director of IIASA; and H. Taba, Director, Programme Planning and UN Affairs in the WMO Secretariat

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 143 Having regard to the all- and the World Climate Impact Study proceeded vigorously through the pervading influence of climate Programme (WCIP), following fairly early 1980s with a particular focus in on human society and on many closely the recommendations of the the research community on the role fields of human activities and World Climate Conference. of increasing atmospheric concen­ endeavour, the Conference finds trations of greenhouse gases in that it is now urgently necessary Congress recognized, however, that producing global warming. In October for the nations of the world: climate issues were already becoming 1985, UNEP, WMO and ICSU convened highly interdisciplinary and that an international assessment of the (a) To take full advantage of man’s implementation of the proposed role of carbon dioxide and other [sic] present knowledge of World Climate Programme would greenhouse gases in climate variations climate; require the involvement of many and associated impacts. Now widely other UN bodies such as UNESCO, referred to as “the Villach Conference”, (b) To take steps to improve FAO, WHO and UNEP, as well as the it was attended by scientists from significantly that knowledge; scientific community through ICSU. 29 countries who produced a highly influential statement foreshadowing (c) To foresee and prevent It thus sought their co-sponsorship of temperature rises in the first half of the potential man-made changes the WCP as a whole and invited UNEP 21st century greater than any in human in climate that might be to take lead responsibility for the history (WMO, 1986). It drew heavily adverse to the well-being WCIP. It also agreed that WCRP should on a major scientific assessment of humanity. be implemented as a joint initiative then underway under the auspices of WMO and ICSU under the terms of the ICSU Scientific Committee on The WCC-1 Declaration (WMO, 1979(a)) of an agreement that would follow Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) called on all nations to strongly seamlessly from the WMO-ICSU joint (Bolin et al., 1986) support the proposed World Climate sponsorship of GARP, which had dated Programme and suggested immediate from 1967. The WCDP responsibility The Villach Conference Statement strategies to assist countries to make was passed to the Commission for included a set of recommendations to better use of climate information in Special Applications of Meteorology governments and funding institutions planning for social and economic and Climatology (CoSAMC), the on the monitoring and research development. successor and predecessor of the needed to further clarify the nature WMO Commission for Climatology of the threat and, importantly, it also (CCl). called on UNEP, WMO and ICSU to, Establishment of inter alia: The Congress considered con­ the World Climate vening a ministerial conference • Ensure periodic assessments Programme and establishing an overall inter­ were undertaken of the state of governmental and interagency scientific understanding and its Following the Conference, WMO coordination mechanism for the practical implications; and moved swiftly to give effect to the WCP but concluded that this would call for a World Climate Programme. be premature. It decided, instead, to • Initiate, if deemed necessary, Eighth World Meteorological Congress foster prompt implementation of the consideration of a global (Geneva, April/May 1979) agreed four components with liaison through convention. that, as the UN specialized agency a WCP Office. It urged countries to for meteorology embracing both establish their own national climate weather and climate, WMO should programmes under the overall The 1987 WMO Congress take the lead in promoting studies umbrella of the WCP. It mapped out an of climate variability and change and ambitious implementation schedule Tenth World Meteorological Congress their implications for society and the for the WCP as a whole (Zillman, in May 1987 considered both the environment (WMO, 1979(b)). 1980). outcome of the Villach Conference and an advance briefing on the It thus formally established the The 1985 Villach Conference conclusions of the World Commission World Climate Programme with four on Environment and Development (the components: the World Climate Data and the SCOPE report Brundtland Commission) which had Programme (WCDP); the World Climate drawn heavily on the Villach findings Applications Programme; the World The international and national planning in highlighting global warming Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and implementation of projects and as a major threat to sustainable (initially entitled Climate Change and activities within the framework of development (WCED, 1987). There Variability Research Programme); the four components of the WCP were many calls from national

144 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 delegations for WMO to provide 1988 elaborated its basic concept of attended by 908 participants from authoritative information on the operation as an intergovernmentally 137 countries. The Conference was state of knowledge of human-induced supervised expert assessment held in the Geneva International climate change. Congress agreed mechanism, established its three Conference Centre but the opening with the Villach recommendation for working group structure and initiated of the ministerial sessions was held in periodic assessments of scientific the work programme which was to the Palais des Nations with addresses knowledge but considered that the lead to its highly influential First from two Heads of State and four assessment mechanism should Assessment Report approved after Prime Ministers (Jäger and Ferguson, operate under the overall guidance long and difficult negotiation at its 1991). of governments rather than solely fourth session in Sundsvall, Sweden, through scientists serving in their in August 1990. The original purpose of WCC-2, as personal capacities (WMO, 1987). envisaged when its planning began It, and the immediately following Under its three successive Chairmen in 1986, was to review the first decade session of the WMO Executive and using increasingly rigorous and of progress under the WCP and the Council, authorized the Secretary- comprehensive assessment and Conference programme included General to consult with the Executive review processes, the IPCC produced some excellent reviews of the WCP Director of UNEP to establish what its Second Assessment Report in as a whole (Bruce, 1991) and its was soon to become the joint WMO- 1996, its Third Assessment Report individual components (Boldirev, 1991) UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on in 2001 and its Fourth Assessment including major achievements in the Climate Change (IPCC). Report in 2007, as well as a number of application of climate information to Special Reports and Technical Papers the challenges of food, water, energy The Toronto Conference along the way. It is now working on and urban and building design. The its Fifth Assessment Report. second purpose of the Conference, The World Conference on the Changing which emerged relatively late in Atmosphere: Implications for Global Though criticized by some as too the planning, was to undertake an Security (the Toronto Conference) cautious and by others as too political initial international review of the First was held in Toronto, Canada on 27- and too alarmist, the IPCC has been Assessment Report of the IPCC (Bolin, 30 June 1988 with the participation widely accepted by its sponsors, 1991; Coughlan and Nyenzi, 1991) as of more than 300 scientists and governments and the competent a lead-in to the negotiations for a UN policy-makers. The Conference bodies of the UN Framework Framework Convention on Climate called upon governments, the United Convention on Climate Change (see Change, which were scheduled to Nations and its specialized agencies, below) as the authoritative source begin in Washington DC in February industry, educational institutions, of information on the science and 1991 and to conclude in time for non-governmental organizations and impacts of climate change (Bolin, signature at the Rio Earth Summit individuals “to take specific actions to 2007; Zillman, 2007). Though formally in June 1992. reduce the impending crisis caused by constituted as a joint subsidiary the pollution of the atmosphere”. mechanism of WMO and UNEP, and The scientific part of WCC-2 included reporting regularly to the governing five specialist scientific panels and The Toronto Conference Statement bodies of both its sponsors, it now 12 task groups which produced called, in particular, for increased operates essentially as an independent recommendations for action in resourcing for the research and intergovernmental organization. areas such as food, water, energy monitoring efforts within the and land use. The resulting seven- WCP, support for the work of the page Conference Statement picked up proposed IPCC and development of many important issues that emerged a comprehensive global convention The Second World from the group discussions, including as a framework for protocols on Climate Conference a recommendation for the urgent the protection of the atmosphere establishment of a Global Climate (Pearman et al., 1989; WMO, 1989). The Second World Climate Conference Observing System (GCOS). (SWCC or WCC-2) took place, under the sponsorship of WMO, UNESCO, The five-page Ministerial Declaration UNEP, FAO and ICSU, in Geneva from from WCC-2, which was adopted by The Intergovernmental 29 October to 7 November 1990. It consensus, after lengthy negotiations Panel on Climate Change consisted of two parts: six days of on the final day, represented the scientific and technical presentations most broadly based call thus far The first session of the WMO-UNEP and discussions involving for cooperative international action Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 747 participants from 116 countries; on the climate change issue. It Change (IPCC) in Geneva in November and two days of ministerial sessions set the essential parameters for

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 145 GCOS has continued to evolve over the intervening years with a particularly strong focus on support of the UNFCCC (see below) since 1998 (GCOS, 2004). Although its concept of operation has been widely misunderstood and its implementation seriously under- resourced in both developed and developing countries, it is now widely seen as the appropriate international framework for ensuring the availability of all observations required for climate purposes at both the national and international levels and on all time and space scales (Sommeria et al., 2007).

Restructuring of the World Climate Programme

Figure 3 — The Secretary-General of WMO, G.O.P. Obasi, addressing the opening of the Eleventh World Meteorological ministerial sessions of the Second World Climate Conference in the Palais des Nations, Congress (May 1991) responded to Geneva, on 6 November 1990. Behind him (left to right) are the Hon. E. Fenech-Adami, the recommendations of WCC-2 by Prime Minister of Malta; the Rt Hon. M. Thatcher, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom; broadening and restructuring the HM King Hussein I of Jordan; Federal Councillor A. Köller, President of the Swiss WCP, establishing a broadly based Confederation; M. Rocard, Prime Minister of France; and the Rt Hon. B. Paeniu, Prime Coordinating Committee for the Minister of Tuvalu. World Climate Programme (CCWCP), institutionalizing the essential underpinning role of GCOS and negotiation of the UNFCCC and a Memorandum of Understanding foreshadowing an intergovernmental invited the forthcoming Eleventh was in place between WMO, IOC, meeting to review the coordination World Meteorological Congress UNEP and ICSU for the establishment arrangements and identify a resourcing to strengthen the WCP research of GCOS. A Joint Planning Office was strategy for both WCP and GCOS. and monitoring programmes in established at WMO Headquarters consultation with UNESCO, UNEP, in Geneva, a Joint Scientific and The four restructured components of FAO, ICSU and other relevant Technical Committee was appointed the WCP became: international organizations. and, by mid-1995, a comprehensive GCOS plan had been finalized (GCOS, • The World Climate Data Establishment of the Global 1995). and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP): Climate Observing System The fundamental design concept for GCOS was that it be built as a system • The World Climate Applications In the light of the WCC-2 Conference of climate relevant components of and Services Programme Statement and Declaration, the then the established observing systems (WCASP); Chairman of the Joint Scientific based on the WMO Global Observing Committee (JSC) for the WCRP moved System and Global Atmosphere • The World Climate Impact immediately to convene a meeting of Watch for the atmosphere and Assessment and Response experts to formulate a prospectus for the then emerging Global Ocean Strategies Programme (WCIRP); the Global Climate Observing System. Observing System (GOOS) and Global and The meeting was hosted by the UK Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) Meteorological Office at Winchester which were also co-sponsored by • The World Climate Research in January 1991 (Winchester Group, several of the co-sponsors of WCC- Programme (WCRP). 1991), the concept and sponsorship 2. The basic purpose of GCOS was arrangements were elaborated and to provide observational support for with the former Advisory Committee agreed by the governing bodies of the all components of the WCP, the IPCC on the World Climate Applications proposed sponsors and, by early 1992, and the UNFCCC. and Data Programmes (ACCAD)

146 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 broadened to embrace all agencies commenced two years of hectic The Article 4 and 5 link between involved with climate aspects of negotiations which ended with an GCOS and UNFCCC was greatly socio-economic development and agreed text for the UN Framework strengthened following the response IOC invited to join WMO and ICSU Convention on Climate Change of the 1997 third (Kyoto) session of as co-sponsors of the WCRP (WMO, on 9 May 1992. The Convention, the COP to the findings of the 1997 1991). whose Articles 4 and 5 include International Conference on WCRP. specific commitments to systematic This was then further reinforced, The sponsorship and organizational observation and research in support of in conjunction with the research arrangements for the re-structured its ultimate objective (“…..stabilization role of WCRP, by the requirements World Climate Programme and of greenhouse-gas concentrations in of the 2007 COP‑13 Bali Action associated activities following the the atmosphere at a level that would Plan for comprehensive scientific 1991 Congress (Zillman, 1995) are prevent dangerous anthropogenic information in support of both shown schematically in Figure 4. interference with the climate system”), mitigation of, and adaptation to, was signed by 155 countries at the Rio climate change. Earth Summit in June 1992 and came Negotiation of into force on 21 March 1994 (Mintzer the UNFCCC and Leonard, 1994). The Climate Agenda The first session of the Conference The April 1993 Intergovernmental On the basis of the scientific of the Parties to the UNFCCC reached Meeting on the World Climate evidence summarized in the First agreement on the establishment Programme, which had been called Assessment Report of IPCC and in of its subsidiary bodies, including for by WMO Congress in 1991 line with the guidance from WCC-2, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific to put in place a broadly based the Intergovernmental Negotiating and Technological Advice, which intergovernmental framework Committee (INC) for a Framework serves as the main link between for the further development and Convention on Climate Change, which the scientific and technical work resourcing of WCP and GCOS was established by the 1990 (45th) of GCOS, WCRP and IPCC and the (WMO, 1993), was co-sponsored session of the UN General Assembly, international policy role of COP. by the established sponsors of WCP

ICSU UNESCO WMO FAO UN

UNEP UNFCCC IOC

COP

WCP IPCC SBSTA

WCRP WCDMP WCASP WCIRP

GCOS

Figure 4 — Organizational structure and sponsorship arrangements for the World Climate Programme (WCP) following the Second World Climate Conference, showing also the underpinning role of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the link to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the UN Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) of the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 147 (WMO, UNESCO and its IOC, UNEP, The call for a third World have to be addressed through a FAO and ICSU) along with the United balance of mitigation and adaptation, Nations Development Programme. Climate Conference international awareness began It was attended by 360 delegates to increase rapidly of the need for from 134 countries and 83 experts Already in the second half of the comprehensive climate information in from 37 intergovernmental and 1990s and in response to growing support of national and international non-governmental international concern at the failure of the 1993 strategy for reducing greenhouse gas organizations. It endorsed the Intergovernmental Meeting to emissions and adapting to unavoidable concept of The Climate Agenda and, mobilize the additional resources climate change. The focus moved through its nine-page “Statement that were urgently needed for strongly to the need for “downscaling” on the Climate Agenda”, called strengthening climate observing climate change projections in support for development of an integrated networks and climate research and of adaptation at the regional, national proposal to governments with four service provision in support of both and local levels. key thrusts on: the specific needs of the UNFCCC and the broader global challenge of This, in turn, underscored the continuing • Dedicated observations of the living with climate variability and importance of such earlier international climate system; change, pressure developed in WMO initiatives as the Climate Information and other circles for WMO to convene and Prediction Services project of • New frontiers in climate science a third World Climate Conference the World Climate Applications and and prediction; towards the end of the decade. This Services Programme as a framework did not, however, find universal for meeting the expanding need for • Studies for climate impact support and several of those who the full range of climate services assessments and response had been instrumental in shaping the in all countries. The scientific and strategies to reduce vulnerability; earlier WMO-convened conferences practical challenges of making better and moved instead to support the use of climate information to live preparations for the World Climate with climate variability and change • Climate services for sustainable Change Conference which was held in were comprehensively addressed development. Moscow in September/October 2003 in two important WMO-sponsored (Izrael et al., 2004). But, eventually, Conferences in 2006 and 2007: It called especially for the under the leadership of its Advisory establishment of National Climate Group on Climate and Environment, • The July 2006 Espoo (Finland) Programmes in all countries as a which had been established by the Conference on Living with basis for accelerated implementation WMO Executive Council in 1999, Climate Variability and Change: of WCP and achievement of the specific proposals were developed Understanding the Uncertainties agreed objectives of The Climate for consideration by Thirteenth World and Managing the Risks (WMO, Agenda. Meteorological Congress in 2003 . 2009(a)); and

As part of its follow-up to the The convening of a third World • The March 2007 Madrid Intergovernmental Meeting, Eleventh Climate Conference was, however, Conference on Secure and World Meteorological Congress strongly opposed by some countries Sustainable Living: Social and (1995) authorized the establishment and the Congress decided, instead, Economic Benefits of Weather, of an Interagency Committee for simply to request the Executive Climate and Water Services the Climate Agenda (IACCA), which Council to keep the matter under (WMO, 2009(b)); served as the peak coordination consideration. mechanism for GCOS, IPCC, WCP and and the information needs for other international climate-related adaptation have been comprehensively programmes and activities through The growing emphasis identified through a series of initiatives the remainder of the 1990s. The under the Nairobi Work Programme development of detailed proposals on adaptation of the UNFCCC. for resourcing GCOS, WCP and The Climate Agenda, was, however, Under the influence of the 2001 Third largely left in abeyance, pending Assessment Report of the IPCC, the Planning for WCC-3 agreement on a new framework 2002 Johannesburg World Summit for international coordination of on Sustainable Development and In the light of the growing climate activities and consideration the growing realization in UNFCCC international pressure for more of proposals for the organization of a and other circles that the global detailed and more reliable climate third World Climate Conference. challenge of climate change would prediction and information and

148 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 As the first major initiative of the Adaptation Mitigation “UN System delivering as one on climate knowledge”, WCC-3 has been designed to guide the establishment of a new global framework for climate Application UNFCCC services to meet the rapidly growing needs for information in support of the 21st century response to the challenge of climate variability and change. Information IPCC WMO successfully established and operates the international framework for provision of a wide range of WCRP meteorological and related services. The successes and lessons learned will motivate and guide the establishment GCOS of a wide range of new and improved climate services to support adaptation to climate variability and change.

Figure 5 — The proposed new Global Framework for Climate Services consisting of a strengthened Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and World Climate Conclusion Research Programme (WCRP) supporting closely coupled Information and Application components of a World Climate Services System to complement and support the climate The new global framework for climate change assessment and policy roles of the IPCC and UNFCCC in achieving mitigation of, services proposed as the significant and adaptation to, climate change concrete outcome from WCC-3 is well placed to build on the remarkable scientific progress of the past 50 years nearly a decade after the need and change in both developed and and the solid institutional foundation was first identified within the developing countries”. provided by the international climate WMO community, Fifteenth World observation, research and assessment Meteorological Congress (2007) mechanisms put in place by WMO endorsed the organization of World and its partner organizations over Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3), by The UN System the 30 years since the historic First late October 2009, around the theme delivering as one World Climate Conference of February “Climate prediction for decision- 1979. making, focusing on seasonal to Following the December 2007 UNFCCC interannual time scales, taking into adoption of the Bali Action Plan and a account multi-decadal prediction”. series of UN General Assembly and other resolutions, the UN Secretary- References

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WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 149 Bolin, B., 2007: A History of the Science Study of Man’s Impact on Climate, Economic Benefits of Weather, and Politics of Climate Change. 1971: Man’s Impact on the Climate. Climate and Water Services. Madrid, Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, MIT Press. March 2007. WMO-No. 1034, Geneva. Bruce, J.P., 1991: The World Climate Sommeria, G., J.W. Zillman and Programme’s Achievements and D. Goodrich, 2007: GCOS, a system of Zillman, J.W., 1980: The World Climate Challenges. Proceedings of the systems for the global observation of Programme. Search, 11, 108-111. Second World Climate Conference. climate. The Full Picture. Tudor Rose. Cambridge University Press, 63-66. Zillman, J.W., 1995: How the international 149-155. climate organizations and programs World Commission on Environment and fit together. In The Global Climate Coughlan, M. and B.S. Nyenzi, 1991: Development, 1987: Our Common System review, Climate System Climate Trends and Variability. Future. Oxford University Press. Monitoring, January 1991- November Proceedings of the Second World 1993. Geneva, WMO-UNEP, 133-136. Climate Conference. Cambridge White, R.M., 1979: The World Climate University Press, 71-82. Conference: Report by the Conference Zillman, J.W., 2007: Some observations Chairman. WMO Bulletin, 28, 3, of the IPCC assessment process Davies, D.A., 1990: Forty Years of Progress 177-178. 1988-2007. Energy and Environment, and Achievement. A Historical Review 18, 7 and 8, 869-891. of WMO. WMO, Geneva. Winchester Group, 1991: The Global Climate Observing System (A Flohn, H., 1970: Climatology—descriptive proposal by an ad hoc group, or physical science? WMO Bulletin, convened by the Chairman of the 19, 4, 223-229. Joint Scientific Committee for the World Climate Research Programme). GCOS, 1995: Plan for the Global Climate Winchester, 14-15 January 1991. Observing System (GCOS). GCOS- No. 14, Geneva. WMO, 1979(a): Proceedings of the World Climate Conference. Geneva, GCOS, 2004: Implementation Plan for February 1979. WMO-No. 537, the Global Observing System for Geneva. Climate in Support of the UNFCCC. GCOS-No. 92, Geneva. WMO, 1979(b): Eighth World Meteorological Congress. Abridged Gibbs, W.J., E.M Fournier d’Albe, G. Rao, Report with Resolutions. WMO- T.F. Malone, W. Baier, H. Flohn, No. 533, Geneva. J. Murray Mitchell and B. Bolin, 1977: Technical Report by the WMO WMO, 1986: Report of the International Executive Council Panel of Experts Conference on the Assessment of on Climate Change. WMO Bulletin, the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of 26, 1, 50-55. Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts. Houghton, J.T., 2009: Global Warming: WMO-No. 661, Geneva. The Complete Briefing. Cambridge University Press. WMO, 1987: Tenth World Meteorological Congress: Abridged Final Report with Izrael Ju. A., G. Gruza, S. Semenov, Resolutions. Geneva. I. Nazarov and E. Kuasnikova (Eds), 2004: Proceedings of the World WMO, 1989: The Changing Atmosphere. Climate Change Conference, Moscow, Implications for Global Security. 29 September- 3 October 2003. WMO-No. 710, Geneva.

Jäger, J. and H.L. Ferguson (Eds), 1991: WMO, 1991: Eleventh World Climate Change: Science, Impacts Meteorological Congress. Abridged and Policy. Proceedings of the Final Report with Resolutions. Second World Climate Conference. Geneva. Cambridge University Press. WMO, 1993: The Climate Agenda: Landsberg, H., 1945: Climatology. In: Intergovernmental Meeting on the Handbook of Meteorology. F.A. Berry, World Climate Programme. The E. Bollay and N.R. Beers (Eds), Meeting Statement and Report. London, McGraw Hill. Geneva, 14-16 April 1993.

Mintzer, I.M. and J.A. Leonard, 1994: WMO, 2009(a): Proceedings of Negotiating Climate Change: The the Conference on Living with Inside Story of the Rio Convention. Climate Variability and Change: Cambridge University Press. Understanding the Uncertainty and Managing the Risks, Espoo, Finland, Pearman, G.I., J. Quinn and J.W. Zillman, July 2006. Geneva (in press). 1989: The changing atmosphere. Search, 20, 2, 59-65. WMO, 2009(b): Secure and Sustainable Living: The Findings of the International Conference on Secure and Sustainable Living: Social and

150 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 World Climate Research Programme: achievements, activities and challenges by Antonio J. Busalacchi1 and Ghassem R. Asrar2

In the wake of World War II, owing The World Climate Research Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to advances in our observing and Programme (WCRP) was established the United Nations programme on understanding of the dynamics of in 1980 under the joint sponsorship assessment of atmospheric ozone the atmospheric circulation, together of WMO and the International depletion/recovery. with nascent digital computing and Council for Science (ICSU) and, telecommunication technologies, since 1993, the Intergovernmental Past achievements the new field of numerical weather Oceanographic Commission (IOC) prediction was ushered in. The of UNESCO. The main objectives Modern climate science began with societal benefit of these scientific for WCRP since its inception are, the creation of physically based discoveries and technological to determine the predictability of numerical models of atmospheric innovations is manifest in present- climate and to determine the effect and oceanic circulations in the 1950s day routine daily and weekly weather of human activities on climate. These and 1960s. In the 1960s and 1970s, predictions. fundamental objectives have laid the observations from new Earth-orbiting groundwork for present society’s satellites, ostensibly in support of Today, as a result of advances in adaptation and mitigation response weather prediction, began providing climate science during the past strategies to changes in climate. an unprecedented perspective of the 30 years, we are now seeing major Thanks to WCRP efforts, it is now Earth as an interconnected system advances in our ability to predict possible for climate scientists to of atmosphere, oceans, continents seasonal-to-interannual variability monitor, simulate and project global and life and temporal changes in this in Earth’s climate and project climate climate so that climate information can system much longer than that of day- change on centennial timescales for be used for governance, in decision- to-day weather phenomena. major regions of the world. Looking making and in support of a wide range to the future, we find ourselves of practical applications. This first global perspective of the at the beginning of a new era of Earth’s atmospheric circulation and predicting Earth System behaviour Over these 30 years, new disciplines climate system enabled global climate with tremendous potential to serve of climate science have arisen studies and identified the important global society’s need for climate and that transcend traditional fields of physical climate system processes. environmental information from days atmosphere, ocean and land sciences The idea of an international research to seasons, years to decades and and have led to routine seasonal-to- programme on climate change longer. Coordination and collaboration interannual climate predictions and came into being at Eighth World among the nations around the world longer-term climate projections. In Meteorological Congress in May have been and will continue to be a parallel with such studies of natural 1979, which formally established hallmark of such progress. fluctuations of the coupled climate WCRP, inclusive of a climate research system, the WCRP development component (to be jointly managed by of coupled climate models, driven WMO and ICSU), as well as activities by changes in the radiative forcing in gathering, managing and applying 1 Director, Earth System Science of greenhouse-gas emissions, climate data and assessment of the Interdisciplinary Center, University of has provided the climate change potential impacts of climate change Maryland, College Park, USA 2 Director, World Climate Research Pro- projections that have underpinned the (to be managed by the United Nations gramme, WMO assessments of the Intergovernmental Environment Programme (UNEP)).

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 151 WCRP from the outset had two major Ocean data assimilation proved to programme was established, so too foci: climate predictability and human be a key element to the initialization did the WCRP World Ocean Circulation influence. of seasonal-to-interannual climate Experiment (WOCE) establish a solid forecasts. Coupled ocean-atmosphere foundation to study the ocean’s role WCRP identified the scientific com­ prediction models were implemented in climate. WOCE was the largest and plexity and breadth of the climate at many of the world’s major weather most successful global ocean research system: the Scientific Plan for the prediction centres (Figure 1). This led to programme ever undertaken. Between programme, prepared in 1984, key breakthroughs in seasonal climate 1990 and 1997, WOCE collected recognized clearly the role of radiation, forecasts based on observations, oceanographic data of unprecedented cloudiness, the ocean, the hydrological understanding and modelling of quality and coverage. These data, cycle and the biosphere. Oceans, worldwide anomalies in the global contributed by more than 30 nations, land surfaces, the cryosphere and atmospheric circulation, temperature were fundamental in the development biosphere all needed to be represented and precipitation patterns linked via of basin-scale ocean models and have realistically in global climate models. teleconnections to El Niño. This was shaped our current understanding The extensive model development and the beginning of the concept of climate of mixing processes for energy and numerical experimentation required products and services. nutrients in the oceans. WOCE left a the exploration of the sensitivity of significant imprint on our knowledge the climate to changes in atmospheric In addition, the overall approach of the global oceans, changes in the carbon dioxide concentration (as well to climate science evolved during technology used by oceanographers as other gases and aerosols). Early TOGA. Prior to TOGA, in the early and overall changes to the scientific work on the assessment of research to mid-1980s, oceanographers and methods for ocean research. During into carbon dioxide effects on climate meteorologists were often in separate WOCE, a global perspective for the anticipated IPCC needs. In view of the and distinct communities. As part time-varying nature of the world’s critical role of oceans in the climate of TOGA, these communities came oceans, from top to bottom, was system, close cooperation was together to form a new discipline of realized. established with the oceanographic climate science realizing that there are community, with IOC joining as co- modes of variability that occur in the The notion of a steady general ocean sponsor of the WCRP in 1993. coupled ocean-atmosphere system circulation or “snapshot” approach that do not exist in the uncoupled to observing the ocean was refuted The first WCRP coupled atmosphere- ocean or atmosphere. by the repeat sections of the WOCE ocean initiative, the Tropical Ocean global hydrographic survey. This and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Just as TOGA left behind a legacy survey established a baseline to project, began in 1984. TOGA studied upon which the subsequent Climate assess changes in time and evaluate the influence of the slowly varying Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) anthropogenic effects on the global thermal inertia of tropical oceans on the large-scale atmospheric El Niño 1997/1998 circulation. Recognition of the longer Seasonal predictions timescale or memory inherent to the oceans enabled short-term climate 4.0 forecasts beyond the lead time of daily 3.0 weather prediction. The requirement for ocean observations to initialize 2.0 C) coupled forecasts established the ° prototype of the ocean observing 1.0 SST ( system now in place. 0.0

During the TOGA decade, routine -1.0 observations of the air-sea interface Observed SST -2.0 and upper-ocean thermal structure Oct. Jan. Apr. July Oct. Jan. Apr. July Oct. Jan. Apr. 1997 1998 1999 in the tropical Pacific Ocean were ECMWF. Source: ECMWF provided in real-time by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array. These Figure 1 — Demonstration of successful ENSO forecasts such as displayed here for mooring observations have since been the 1997/1998 event have been possible through intensive research efforts in the field sustained in the Pacific and extended of seasonal prediction. The physical basis for understanding and predicting El Niño to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, thus temperature signals and associated changes in the global atmospheric circulation from building a solid foundation for today’s a season to a year in advance was laid during the WCRP project on Tropical Ocean and ocean observing system. Global Atmosphere (TOGA, 1985-1994).

152 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 ocean circulation. In partnership with together with data-assimilation 1988, which is still one of the largest the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study, methodologies revolutionized the worldwide energy and water cycle a carbon dioxide and trace chemistry approach to global oceanography. experiments. As such, GEWEX leads survey was enabled. Regional process Real-time global ocean observations the WCRP studies of the dynamics and studies and focused observational have ushered in the possibility of thermodynamics of the atmosphere, campaigns improved our knowledge operational oceanography on a the atmosphere’s interactions with the of the Southern Ocean, deepwater global scale; an important theme of Earth’s surface (especially over land) formation in the Greenland-Iceland- the upcoming Ocean Observations ’09 and the global water cycle. The goal Norwegian and Labrador Seas, and Conference (Venice, Italy, September of GEWEX is to reproduce and predict refinements to our understanding of 2009). We are now at the point that by means of observations and suitable the global thermohaline circulation the oceanographic equivalent of a models the variations of the global and the meridional transport of heat World Weather Watch is not a folly hydrological regime, its impact on from Equator to pole. limited by logistics, but is in fact on atmospheric and surface dynamics, the verge of reality. and variations in regional hydrological Advances in ocean technology played processes and water resources and a major role in permitting a global their response to changes in the ocean perspective. Continuous Present activities environment, such as the increase observations of global sea-surface in greenhouse gases. height were provided by the TOPEX/ Other important initiatives of WCRP Poseidon and European remote- were the International Satellite Cloud GEWEX strives to provide an order- sensing satellite radar altimeters. Climatology Project in 1982, the of-magnitude improvement in the Active and passive microwave compilation of a Surface Radiation ability to model global precipitation satellite sensors provided all-weather Budget dataset from 1985, and the and evaporation, as well as accurately retrievals of the ocean surface wind Global Precipitation Climatology assess the feedback between velocity. Improved instrumentation Project in 1985. These were based on atmospheric radiation, clouds, land use and calibration led to refinements in exciting new techniques, developed and climate change. To date, GEWEX air-sea flux measurement capabilities to blend optimally remotely-sensed has developed high-resolution, next- from both ship- and mooring-based and in situ observations, providing generation hydrologic land surface and platforms. Within the ocean, the for the first time new insights into the regional climate models by improving WOCE float programme led to the role of clouds in the climate system parameterizations and applying them ARGO programme and the concept and the interaction of clouds with for experimental predictions. GEWEX of a global deployment of profiling both radiation and the hydrological has developed global datasets on floats. Experimental devices such as cycle. These activities formed the clouds, radiation, precipitation and gliders demonstrated the potential starting point for the comprehensive other parameters that are invaluable in for performing repeat sections in Global Energy and Water Cycle understanding and predicting global historically difficult-to-observe EXperiment (GEWEX) established in energy and water cycles processes, regions of the ocean such as western boundary currents.

Initiated by the WOCE Community Modelling Effort and fuelled by advances in computer technology, global ocean models now exist which can resolve energetic boundary currents and associated instability processes and provide a dynamically consistent description of many observed aspects of the ocean circulation that contribute to understanding the role of oceans in the Earth’s climate system. WOCE also changed the way the scientific community studies the ocean’s role in climate. The idea Figure 2 — Satellite-gauge combined precipitation product of the GEWEX Global of an ocean synthesis in which in Precipitation Climatology Project averaged for the 30 years 1979-2008, in mm per day. situ observations and/or remotely Data courtesy of GEWEX/GPCP; image by David Bolvin (SSAI), 5 June 2009, NASA/ sensed observations are brought Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD.

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 153 and for their proper representation in In collaboration with other WCRP Since 1993, the role of the stratosphere the climate system models (Figure 2). projects, it is attempting particularly in the Earth’s climate system has Modelling studies and coordinated to understand and predict the coupled been the focus of the WCRP project field experiments have identified behaviour of the rapidly changing on SPARC. SPARC concentrates on key land-surface processes and atmosphere and more slowly varying the interaction of the atmosphere’s conditions that contribute most land surface, oceans and ice masses dynamical, radiative and chemical significantly to the predictability of as they respond to natural processes, processes. Activities organized by precipitation. GEWEX is developing human influences and changes in the SPARC include the construction of a land-data assimilation systems that Earth’s chemistry and biota, while stratospheric reference climatology will resolve land-surface features refining the estimates of anthropogenic and the improvement of understanding at resolutions as small as 1 km that climate change and our understanding of trends in temperature, ozone and will prove invaluable in studies and of climate variability. water vapour in the stratosphere. assessments of regional climate Gravity-wave processes, their role variability and change. CLIVAR provides scientific input to in stratospheric dynamics and how the WCRP crosscutting topics on these may be parameterized in models Climate Variability and Predictability seasonal and decadal prediction are other current topics. (CLIVAR), founded in the year 1995, is and (with GEWEX) on monsoons and the main focus in WCRP for studies climate extremes. It also contributes Research on stratospheric- of climate variability. Monsoons, to those on anthropogenic climate tropospheric interactions have led El Niño/Southern Oscillation and change and atmospheric chemistry to new understanding of tropospheric other global coupled atmosphere- (with Stratospheric Processes and temperature changes initiated from ocean phenomena are investigated their Role in Climate (SPARC)) and the stratosphere. SPARC has organized by CLIVAR on seasonal, interannual, sea-level variability and change (with model simulations and analyses that decadal and centennial timescales. the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) were a central element of the WMO/ CLIVAR builds on—and is advancing— project, and cross-cutting scientific UNEP Scientific Assessments of the findings of WCRP’s successfully climate themes. CLIVAR achievements Ozone Depletion and now recovery completed TOGA and WOCE projects. include the development of improved (Figure 3). SPARC-affiliated scientists CLIVAR further examines the detection understanding and prediction of have served on the WMO/UNEP and attribution of anthropogenic climate variability and change. Assessment Steering Committee, climate change based on high-quality as lead and contributing authors climatic records. CLIVAR has provided coordination of and reviewers. In addition, SPARC climate model scenario experiments comprehensive peer-reviewed Its mission is to observe, simulate for IPCC, as well as key inputs on reports include: “Trends in the and predict the Earth’s climate changes in climate extremes to the IPCC vertical distribution of ozone”; “Upper system, with a focus on ocean- Fourth Assessment Report. Model tropospheric and stratospheric water atmosphere interactions enabling intercomparison activities aimed at vapour”; “Intercomparison of middle better understanding of climate improving seasonal predictions and atmosphere climatologies”; and variability, predictability and ocean model performance have been “Stratospheric aerosol properties”. change for the benefit of society led by CLIVAR. Study of the ocean’s WCRP researchers have also provided and the environment in which we role in climate has been a major focus much of the scientific basis for the live. CLIVAR seeks to encourage for coordination of field studies to ozone protocols and carbon-dioxide- analysis of observations of climate help improve parameterization and aerosol-emission scenarios used variations and change on seasonal- schemes for atmosphere and ocean by the United Nations Framework to-centennial and longer timescales. climate models, synthesis of ocean Convention on Climate Change It collaborates closely with GEWEX in data and advocacy for real-time (UNFCCC). studying and ultimately predicting the ocean observations and high-quality monsoon systems worldwide. It also delayed mode observations for ocean In 1993, the Arctic Climate System encourages and helps to coordinate operations and research. Study (ACSYS) opened up a polar observational studies of climate perspective with the examination processes, particularly for the ocean, CLIVAR has organized major training of key processes in the Arctic that but also over the monsoon land areas, workshops on seasonal prediction have an important role in global encouraging their feed through into in Africa, climate impacts on ocean climate. The scope of this study was improvements in models. ecosystems, climate data and extremes broadened to the whole of the global and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. One cryosphere with the establishment CLIVAR promotes the development specific example is the development of of the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) of a sustained ocean observing an electronic African Climate Atlas, as a project in 2000. CliC was established system both regional and globally. tool for research on African climate. to stimulate, support and coordinate

154 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 e

n cryosphere provides key indicators o z s o n of climate change (e.g. sea level o g i n t i c s rise, Figure 4), and CliC focuses on e a j e o r r c

p identifying patterns and rates of n i Pre-1980 ozone amounts f 0 o

e change in cryospheric parameters. CliC e g n n o 0 a

z encompasses four themes, covering 8 R o 9 g 1

n the following areas of climate and - i s e a r e p r cryosphere science: The terrestrial

c Expected e m d return of cryosphere and hydrometeorology o

r EESC to 1980 f levels

e Stage iii: Full of cold regions; Ice masses and sea

g recovery of ozone n level; The marine cryosphere and

a from ODSs h

c Stage i: Slowing climate; and Global prediction of the

e of ozone decline n cryosphere. o

z Stage ii: Onset of

O ozone increases CliC generated strong input from the climate research community 1960 1980 Time End of 21st century to the scientific programme of the International Polar Year 2007-2008. Figure 3 — Through its project on Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate This included the concept of a polar (SPARC), WCRP-related scientists have served on the WMO/UNEP Scientific satellite snapshot aimed at obtaining Assessment Panel for Ozone Depletion as lead and contributing authors and reviewers. unprecedented coverage of both The schematic diagram shows the temporal evolution of observed and expected global polar regions. CliC was one of the ozone amounts. Image source: WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion key scientific programmes that drew 2006. the attention of the world’s scientific community to the cryosphere. For research into the processes by which glaciers, ice caps, icebergs, sea ice, the first time, a chapter on snow, ice the cryosphere interacts with the rest snow cover and snowfall, permafrost and frozen ground was prepared in of the climate system. The cryosphere and seasonally frozen ground, as well the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. consists of the frozen portions of as lake- and river-ice. As a sensitive As detailed there, the contribution the globe and includes ice sheets, component of the climate system, the of melted water to recent sea- level change is now known with

1.0 considerably increased accuracy.

The development and evaluation of 0.06 0.8 Tide gauges Additional contributions global climate models is an important Satellite altimeters from potential ice−sheet 0.04 dynamic processes unifying component of WCRP, building

0.02 on scientific and technical advances in ) 0.6 Model the more discipline-oriented activities.

Sea-level rise (m) projections 0.00 These models are the fundamental 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year tool for understanding and predicting 0.4

Sea-level rise (m natural climate variations and providing reliable predictions of natural and anthropogenic climate 0.2 change. Models also provide an essential means of exploiting and synthesizing, in a synergistic 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 manner, all relevant atmospheric, Year oceanographic, cryospheric and land- Figure 4 — The climate knowledge and understanding we gain from research has surface data collected in WCRP and to be made available to decision-makers in an open and timely manner in order to other programmes. The Working become beneficial to human society and the environment. For example, vulnerability Group on Numerical Experimentation assessments of coastal settlements and low-lying areas such as Pacific Islands and (WGNE), jointly sponsored by WCRP other island States prone to a rising sea level are based on the reconstructed and and the WMO Commission for projected sea-level rise for the 21st century (m). A new WCRP activity within the Climate Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), leads and Cryosphere (CliC) project now focuses on assessing the contribution of ice caps and the development of atmospheric glaciers on global sea level. Image source: modified and updated by J. Church, based on models for both climate studies and Church et al. 2001 in IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. numerical weather prediction.

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 155 The WCRP modelling programme and application experts to address the IOC. WCRP is also a co-sponsor of the has provided essential input to the current status of seasonal forecasting international global change SysTem four published assessments of the and the application of seasonal for Analysis, Research and Training IPCC and is once again providing forecasts by decision-makers. (START) that promotes environmental input to the next round of IPCC Workshop participants outlined research capacities in developing assessments. The WCRP Working recommendations and identified best countries. In 2001, projections of Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) practices in the science of seasonal possible future climate change and leads the development of coupled prediction. During the workshop, of increasing variations in climate ocean/atmosphere/land models the WCRP Climate-system Historical stimulated the establishment of the used for climate studies on longer Forecast Project was launched. That Earth System Science Partnership timescales. WGCM is also WCRP’s project is a multi-model, multi- between WCRP, IGBP, the International link to the International Geosphere- institutional experimental framework Human Dimensions Programme Biosphere Programme’s (IGBP) for assessing state-of-the-science and the international programme of Analysis, Integration and Modelling seasonal forecast systems and for biodiversity science, DIVERSITAS. of the Earth System and to the IPCC. evaluating the potential for untapped This partnership is promoting a Activities in this area concentrate on predictability due to interactions of coordinated focus on important global the identification of errors in model components of the climate system issues of common concern, namely climate simulations and exploring the that are currently not fully accounted the carbon budget, food systems, means for their reduction by organizing for in seasonal forecasts. water systems and human health and coordinated model experiments similar important themes to human under standard conditions. Under the The World Modelling Summit for activities that could be affected by purview of WCRP, the Atmospheric Climate Prediction, jointly sponsored possible future climate change and Model Intercomparison Project has by WCRP, IGBP and the WMO World increasing climate variability. facilitated controlled simulations by Weather Research Programme (6- 30 different atmospheric models under 9 May 2008, Reading, United Kingdom) specified conditions. The comparison was organized to develop a strategy Future challenges/ of the results with observations has to revolutionize prediction of the shown the capability of many models climate through the 21st century to opportunities to represent adequately mean seasonal help address the threat of climate states and large-scale interannual change. A key outcome of the Summit Looking to the future, the WCRP variability. was the indisputable identification Strategic Framework for 2005-2015 that our ability as a research period aims to facilitate analysis and Moreover, WGCM has initiated a series community to make the transition prediction of Earth system variability of Coupled Model Intercomparison from studies of global climate and change for use in an increasing Projects (CMIP). In 2005, WCRP variability and change to application range of practical applications of facilitated the collection, archival at the regional level has tremendous direct relevance, benefit and value and access to all the global climate ramifications for present and future to society. A key focus of this Strategic model simulations undertaken for the climate models, observations and Framework is towards seamless IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. This needed infrastructure, such as high- prediction of weather, climate and, third phase of CMIP (CMIP3) involved performance computing. ultimately, the whole Earth system. an unprecedented set of 20th- and There are many theoretical and 21st-century coordinated climate Throughout its history, WCRP has practical reasons for this approach to change experiments from 16 groups had extensive interactions with be pursued by the weather and climate in 11 countries with 23 global coupled many groups concerned with community in adopting a seamless or climate models. About 31 terabytes climate and climate research and unified approach to environmental of model data were collected at the has collaborated widely with other prediction. Program for Climate Model Diagnosis international scientific organizations and Intercomparison. The model data on aspects of climate research that Extension of climate prediction to are freely available and have been involve biogeochemistry, as well as more encompassing environmental accessed by more than 1 200 scientists physics. Multiple examples of active prediction requires recognition that who have produced over 200 peer- collaboration between WCRP and IGBP the climate system is inextricably reviewed papers, to date. can be found in the GEWEX, SPARC linked to the Earth’s biogeochemistry and CLIVAR projects. Furthermore, and to human activities. For WCRP to The first WCRP Seasonal Prediction WCRP strongly supported WMO’s achieve its goals of understanding Workshop was held in June 2007 in establishment of the Global Climate and predicting climate variability and Barcelona, Spain, bringing together Observing System (GCOS) in 1992 change and their effect on society at climate researchers, forecast providers in cooperation with ICSU, UNEP and large, it must, and will, contribute to

156 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 studies of the fully integrated Earth 1.0 system. Observations DePreSys Developing a unified approach to weather, climate, water and NoAssim 0.5 environmental prediction requires a broadened Earth system perspective beyond the traditional atmospheric science disciplines. The development of climate prediction and ultimately 0.0 environmental prediction is not Anomaly (°C) Confidence (%) a rote extension of numerical weather prediction. For example, 10 50 90 −0.5 Mt Pinatubo the scientific disciplines required to support weather, climate and 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 environmental prediction across these timescales span meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, Figure 5 — Global average of annual-mean Earth surface temperature anomaly (1979- oceanography and marine and 2001) forecast by the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) beginning terrestrial ecosystems. in June 2005. The confidence interval (red shading) is diagnosed from the standard deviation of the DePreSys ensemble mean (white curve). The blue curve is an equivalent While atmospheric nowcasting and forecast with no initialization with observations. The black curve is the hindcasts very short-range weather forecasting beginning from June 1985 together with observations. Source: Smith et al. (2008, are primarily initial value problems, Science 317) extension to short-, medium- and extended-range weather forecasting One of WCRP’s major challenges is to of data-assimilation schemes in begins to bring in the coupling of land- determine the limits to predictability Earth system models and the use surface processes and the role of soil on the decadal timescale. Within the of Earth system models for shorter- moisture feedback and other surface- concept of a unified suite of forecasts, range prediction, e.g. seasonal. For atmosphere processes. Long-range decadal prediction bridges the gap example, seasonal predictions can forecasting through seasonal climate between predicting seasonal-to- be used to calibrate probabilistic forecasting involves atmosphere- interannual climate variability and climate-change projections in a ocean coupling with the initial change and the externally forced seamless prediction system. Hence, conditions of the memory inherent climate change projections over there is common ground over which in the upper ocean leading to longer very long periods, i.e. a century. to base a cooperation of the two lead-time predictive skill. The climate-change community is communities in order to develop typically focused on the problem seamless predictions. Decadal climate prediction is of estimating anthropogenically determined by both initial values induced climate change on centennial Over the past 20 years, the link and boundary-value forcing. On timescales. For this community, the between WCRP observational these timescales, deeper oceanic provision of accurate initial conditions and modelling efforts has been information and changes to radiative is not a major concern, since the level atmospheric reanalyses that have forcing from greenhouse gases and of predictability of the first kind is greatly improved our ability to analyse aerosols play determinant roles. believed to be small on century the past climate variability. The Third When considering interdecadal to timescales. WCRP International Conference on centennial climate projections, not Reanalysis was held in Tokyo from only do future concentrations of By contrast, although the numerical 28 January to 1 February 2008 to greenhouse gases need to be taken weather prediction and seasonal showcase results of progress in into account, but also changes in land forecast community have well- reanalysis products and research cover/dynamic vegetation and carbon developed data-assimilation schemes and to discuss future goals and sequestration governed by both to determine initial conditions, the developments. The climate record is marine and terrestrial ecosystems. In models do not incorporate many of made up of analyses of observations addition, regionally specific predictive the cryospheric and biogeochemical taken for many other purposes, information will be required across processes believed to be important such as weather forecasting in the these timescales for environmental on timescales of centuries. A focus on atmosphere or core oceanographic parameters such as air and water decadal prediction by the two groups research. It is now recognized that quality. may help expedite the development global climate can be understood only

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 157 by ensuring that there are climate- quality observations taken in the Stakeholders atmosphere, ocean and land surface, users, decision-makers including the cryosphere. Assessments

A consequence of past practices Products is that the climate record often Information displays biases that mask long-term Operational Prediction Climate Basic applied variations. Many climate datasets are research research Attribution services inhomogeneous: the record length is either too short to provide decadal- Modelling scale information or the record is inconsistent, owing to operational Assimilation changes and absence of adequate metadata. Hence, major efforts have Observations, data and analyses been required to homogenize the observed data for them to be useful for climate purposes. Reanalysis of Figure 6 — A conceptual framework for a climate information system which begins atmospheric observations using a with observations, research and analysis and results in information required by the constant state-of-the-art assimilation decision-makers. The decisions on priorities and coordination among component of the model has helped enormously in system are informed by the need for scientific understanding together with the type of making the historical record more climate information required by the decision-makers. Source: Trenberth (2008), WMO homogeneous and useful for many Bulletin 57 (1), January 2008, slightly modified by G. Asrar studies. Indeed, in the 20 years since reanalysis was first proposed, occurring in sea ice, Arctic and land is improved before each reanalysis, there have been great advances in surface reanalysis. There has also so that there is time to analyse and our ability to generate high-quality, been initial development of coupled hence learn from the output of past temporally homogeneous estimates atmosphere-ocean data assimilation, efforts. Further improvements to of past climate. WCRP and GCOS have which is laying the foundation for reanalyses, including expansion to provided leadership in promoting future coupled reanalysis studies encompass key trace constituents and the underpinning research and that may lead to more consistent the ocean, land and sea-ice domains, observational needs for reanalysis. representations of the energy and hold promise for extending their use With the ongoing development of water cycles. A challenge is to in climate-change studies, research analysis and reanalysis in the ocean, improve estimates of uncertainty in and applications. land and sea ice domains, there is the reanalysis products. huge potential for further progress Another challenge confronting the and improved knowledge of the past Global atmospheric reanalysis climate research community is the climate record. results in high-quality and consistent provision of climate information estimates of the short-term or synoptic- on the regional level that investors, From the Conference, it was apparent scale variations of the atmosphere, business leaders, natural resources that much future work remains to be but variability on longer timescales managers and policy-makers need to done to address outstanding issues in (especially decadal) is not so well help prepare for the adverse impacts reanalyses, especially those related captured by current reanalyses. The of potential climate change on to the changing observational data primary causes of this deficiency are industries, communities, ecosystems base. These issues adversely affect the quality and homogeneity of the and entire nations (Figure 6). While decadal and longer variability and fundamental datasets that make up global mean metrics of temperature, limit applications of reanalyses at the climate record and the quality of precipitation and sea-level rise are present. Moreover, while the origins of the data-assimilation systems used to convenient for tracking global climate reanalysis have been in atmospheric produce reanalyses. Research into bias change, many sectors of society climate and weather, there have been corrections and advanced reanalysis require actionable information on significant studies of reanalysis (or techniques is showing promise, considerably finer spatial scales. The synthesis) of ocean data. Because of however, and further reanalysis efforts increased confidence in attribution of the limited size of the historical ocean are needed. In the future, it will prove global-scale climate change to human- datasets, it has been necessary to important that next-generation global induced greenhouse-gas emissions, develop novel techniques for increased reanalyses are coordinated and, if and the expectation that such changes homogeneity of ocean reanalysis. possible, staggered to ensure that will increase in future, has lead to Other promising developments are the basic observational data record an increased demand in predictions

158 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 of regional climate change to guide modellers, those producing down­ of the feedbacks in the climate system, adaptation. Although there is some scaled information and end-users such as in the carbon cycle. confidence in the large-scale patterns to better support impact/adaptation of changes in some parameters, the activities and to better communicate The scientific community has skill in regional prediction is much the scientific uncertainty inherent formulated the proposed CMIP5 more limited and indeed difficult to in climate projections and climate coordinated experiments to address assess, given that we do not have data information. An important theme key science questions. Since these for a selection of different climates in this activity will be the greater experiments will be the major activity against which to test models. involvement of scientists from of the international climate change developing countries. modelling community over the next Much research is being done to few years, the results will be eligible for improve model predictions but Over the next few years, WCRP will assessment by AR5. The new suite of progress is likely to be slow. In continue to provide the scientific coupled model experiments is based the meantime, WCRP recognizes leadership for major international on the use of two classes of model that governments and businesses climate assessment activities. to address two time frames and two are faced with making decisions Currently, under the leadership of sets of science questions. For longer now and require the best available WCRP’s WGCM, the fifth phase of timescale projections (to 2100 and climate advice today. Despite their CMIP (CMIP5) is under development beyond) (Figure 7), and as an exten­ limitations, climate models provide in support of IPCC AR5. The grand sion to previous WGCM modelling the most promising means of challenge of the new set of climate supporting IPCC, intermediate providing information on climate models examined in CMIP5 is to resolution (~200 k m ) coupled change and WCRP has encouraged resolve regional climate changes, climate models will incorporate making data available from climate particularly in the next few decades, the carbon cycle, specified/simple predictions to guide decisions, to which human societies will have to chemistry and aerosols, forced by provided the limitations of such adapt, and to quantify the magnitudes new mitigation scenarios (referred predictions are made clear. This will include assessments of the ability of the models used to predict current CMIP5 Long-term experiments climate, and the range of predictions Draft from WGCM meeting, September 2008 from as large a number of different al du e ivi xte models as possible. d ng n in rci d fo RC to P 2 8 30 .5 s 0 & A le ensembles & b R m ly R C Toward this end, WCRP has begun D e on AMIP & 20 C P s l- C P2 2 n ra y .X . e u nl RC x at -o P to develop a framework to evaluate n G 6 H G e x regional climate downscaling (RCD) e Control t t e m n RCP4.5 n s t u e AMIP a i o d l c n RCP8.5 o 2 R techniques for use in downscaling e l & 20 C l M 3 C l i o 0 G P h 0

m - L 4

d . E-driven E-driven 5 i global climate projections (Giorgi et &

M control & 20 C RCP8.5 ( A

p c al., 2009). Such a framework would be f q 2

l l o a o u

O n u a e s l C e 1% /yr CO (140 yrs) d 2 n x t b conceptually similar to the successful s u 4 r ) abrupt 4XCO (150 yrs) m 2 t p e r b a s y u ∆ t fixed SST with 1 x & 4XCO n - coupled model intercomparisons ( t 2 r c S e e b 5 l r o S n a T ∆ u e d d undertaken by WGCM and would S u s S n ) l T i o fo s r o have the goal of quantifying the (c m r r ae 00 lo ad te 0 u iat lfa . 2 d s ion su a s ee code g c performance of regional climate ) o s 1 cin 4 r XC for C ) 20 O & y C+R 2 C tr Coupled carbon-cycle CP4.5 A is All simulations are foreced by modelling techniques and assessing c m climate models only 1 ar he prescribed concentrations X bon (c CO cycl their relative merits. An international 2 (1 e sees except those “E-driven” % o r 20C+ .5) (i.e., emission-driven) coordinated effort is envisioned to RCP4 develop improved downscaling techniques and to provide feedback to the global climate modelling Figure 7 — WCRP and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme have joined community. A specific objective will expertise to advance climate model development and, hence, prediction capabilities. be to produce improved multi-model Future climate modelling activities include a set of experiments that “compare” RCD-based high-resolution climate existing climate models and evaluate their strengths and weaknesses and improve information over regions worldwide climate simulations, using a defined suite of emission scenarios. By incorporating the for input to impact/adaptation work global carbon cycle, more complex Earth system models are also being tested for their and to the IPCC Fifth Assessment response to different forcings. Within WCRP, the Working Group on Coupled Modelling Report (AR5). This would promote leads the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land models used for climate greater interactions between climate studies on longer timescales. Image source: Taylor et al (2008)

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 159 to as “representative concentration to identify the mechanisms associated 2007; Eyring et al., 2007), when column pathways”. The science questions to with regions/modes of predictability, ozone is expected to reach 1980 be addressed relate to the magnitude to better understand the connection values in southern polar latitudes. of feedbacks in the coupled climate between oceanic modes and terrestrial This development is determined on system. Mitigation and adaptation climate variability and to investigate the one hand by a decrease in ozone scenarios with permissible emissions predictive skill by means of prognostic depleting substances and on the other levels that allow the system to hit (including multi-model) decadal hand by a decrease in stratospheric stabilized concentration targets are predictions. temperatures due to enhanced to be used (in place of the previous greenhouse-gas concentrations in IPCC Special Report on Emissions The results of predictability studies the atmosphere, which affects polar Scenarios). The new scenarios will and demonstrations of forecast skill stratospheric cloud formation and have implicit policy actions to target provide the foundations for initiating heterogeneous ozone destruction. future levels of climate change. Since a coordinated WCRP study of decadal we can only mitigate part of the prediction/predictability. There are An important issue is how the changes problem and we will have to adapt abundant scientific opportunities in the tropospheric abundances of to the remaining climate change, the to improve and extend models and ozone depleting substances translate challenge is to use climate models for the analysis of variability and of to changes in the ozone-depleting to quantify time-evolving regional modes of variability. Future challenges active chemicals in the stratosphere. climate changes to which human include the need to develop improved Dynamical processes that control societies will have to adapt. analysis methods, especially in the transport and dynamical issues related ocean, and for model initialization, to vortex formation and maintenance A new focus area for CMIP5 is a verification and development, as well need to be carefully taken into set of near-term projections that as in ensemble generation and the consideration when predicting the encompass 10- and 30-year prediction use of multi-model ensembles for long-term evolution of polar ozone. studies and high-resolution time- prediction on decadal timescales. The influences of the changes in slice experiments, as summarized stratospheric ozone and composition in Taylor et al., 2008. WCRP research In addition to its support of the IPCC on the Earth’s climate that need to has indicated there are reasonable assessment process, WCRP will be evaluated include those that can prospects for producing decadal continue to support the quadrennial influence the composition of the forecasts of sufficient skill to be used WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The troposphere. For studies of the future by planners and decision-makers, as SPARC Chemistry Climate Model development of stratospheric ozone, well as being of considerable scientific Validation Activity (CCMVal) is the it is of great importance to take into interest. The CMIP5 experimental main model-based analysis for the account the interactions of radiation, design provides an opportunity for the connection between atmospheric dynamics and chemical composition international coordination of research chemistry and climate. CCMVal of the atmosphere. and experimentation in this area. provides strategic modelling support to the ozone assessment In summary, WCRP has made great There are two aspects to the decadal process that is mandated by the strides in advancing understanding problem; the externally forced signal Montreal Protocol. Ozone is a major of the coupled climate system on (greenhouse gases and aerosols, constituent in radiative processes timescales ranging from seasonal volcanoes, solar, etc.) and the and is also affected by dynamics and to centennial. WCRP research efforts predictable part of the internally transport. Only CCMs can simulate resulted in the reality of operational generated signal from intrinsic the feedback of chemical processes climate forecasting, products and oceanic mechanisms, coupled on the dynamics and transport of services. WCRP has had a major role ocean-atmosphere processes, trace gases. in transferring the resultant scientific modulation of climate modes of information and knowledge about variability (e.g. El Niño/Southern Under the direction of WCRP SPARC, the Earth’s climate system for policy Oscillation) and, potentially, land CCM simulations will be conducted decisions through the IPCC, the and cryospheric processes. To date, as a major contribution to the WMO/ UNFCCC Conference of Parties and climate projections have generally UNEP Scientific Assessment of its Subsidiary Body on Scientific and treated internal variability as a Ozone Depletion: 2010. The main Technological Advice. More than one statistical component of uncertainty. focus will lie on model validation half of the scientific and technical Though there is no marked decadal against observations, as well contributions used in the IPCC peak in the spectrum of the climate as on assessments of the future assessments were provided by WCRP- system, long timescales exist and are development of stratospheric ozone. affiliated scientists. WCRP made a potentially predictable. The challenge At present, ozone recovery is expected concerted effort to provide worldwide of prediction/predictability studies is to take place until mid-century (WMO, access to its model predictions/

160 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 projections and research results for and services involve sectors such C. Brühl, N. Butchart, M.P. Chipperfield, use by scientists from developing and as business, finance, agriculture, M. Dameris, R. Deckert, M. Deushi, S.M. Frith, R.R. Garcia, A. Gettelman, Least Developed Countries to assess engineering, public health, public M. Giorgetta, D.E. Kinnison, E. Mancini, the consequences of potential climate policy, national security, etc. In order E. Manzini, D.R. Marsh, S. Matthes, variability and change on major to satisfy the needs of society for T. Nagashima, P.A. Newman, J.E. Nielsen, S. Pawson, G. Pitari, D.A. Plummer, economic sectors (e.g. food, water, climate services, a climate information E. Rozanov, M. Schraner, J.F. Scinocca, energy, health), for their country or system is called for by decision- K. Semeniuk, T.G. Shepherd, K. Shibata, geographic region. makers to support policy, budget B. Steil, R. Stolarski, W. Tian and and investment decisions. Such a M. Yoshiki, 2007: Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in WCRP’s accomplishments and system would build upon reliable the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 112, progress were all made possible climate predictions over timescales of D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332. by the generous and sustained seasons to decades, tailored forecasts Giorgi, F., C. Jones and G. Asrar, 2009: contributions of its sponsors: WMO, for regions and localities, integration Climate information needed at ICSU and IOC, and their network of of atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial the regional level: addressing the more than 190 Member countries. The and social data into a comprehensive challenge. WMO Bulletin 58 (3). entire WCRP community is grateful for “Earth System” prediction model and Taylor, K.E., R.J. Stouffer and this sponsorship and support and is decision-support interfaces that can G.A. Meehl, 2008: A summary of the excited about the many opportunities be adjusted to provide user-specified CMIP5 experiment design. http:// that have made possible major “if-then” scenarios. www.clivar.org/organization/wgcm/ references/Taylor_CMIP5.pdf contributions to understanding the causes and consequences of climate The realization of a climate information Trenberth, K.E., T. Koike and K. Onogi, change and variability, assessing their system will require the coupling of 2008. Progress and prospects for reanalysis for weather and climate, impact on major sectors of the world models across the physical climate Eos, 89, 234-235. economy and enabling the use of system, biogeochemical cycles and resulting knowledge for managing the socio-economic systems, synthesis World Meteorological Organization, 2007: Scientific Assessment of risks associated with these changes of disparate datasets from in situ Ozone Depletion: 2006, Global Ozone for our generation, our children and and space-based observations, Monitoring Project Report No. 50, those who will follow them in this new terrestrial and orbital sensor Geneva, Switzerland, 572 pp. century and beyond. systems, dedicated high-performance computer infrastructure and software WCRP work has established, and unprecedented synergy between unequivocally, that the Earth System the climate research community, the will experience real climate change operational delivery arm of climate over the next 50 years, exceeding the services, and the end users. Much scope of natural climate variability. A akin to the situation 60 years ago question of paramount importance with the advent of numerical weather confronting nations is how to adapt prediction, we now find ourselves to this certainty of climate variability on the brink of a new era of climate and change in the next half century. information and services underpinned The needs for coping with climate by climate research striving to variability and adapting to climate improve, expand and refine our change therefore represent a real understanding and ability to predict challenge to society. In response, the the coupled climate system. upcoming World Climate Conference- 3 will consider how comprehensive climate services would best inform References: decisions about adaptation. Church, J.A., J. M. Gregory, P. Huybrechts, The delivery of climate observations M. Kuhn, K. Lambeck, M.T. Nhuan, D. Qin and P.L. Woodworth, 2001: and services involves the transition Changes in sea level. In: Climate across basic research, applied Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. research, operations, applications and Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the engagement with the user community. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Yet, most of the effort to date has Change. been focused on the physical climate Eyring, V., D.W. Waugh, G.E. Bodeker, system and has not been product- E. Cordero, H. Akiyoshi, J. Austin, driven. However, climate impacts S.R. Beagley, B. Boville, P. Braesicke,

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 161 World Climate Conference-3: towards a Global Framework for ClimateTitle Services

Introduction

The climate challenge is enormous and requires a comprehensive and coordinated response from the world World Climate Conference-3 community. In the tradition of the two Better climate information for earlier World Climate Conferences, a better future World Climate Conference-3 (WCC- 3) is expected to create a mechanism to provide “better climate information for a better future”. Considerable work has already been done in formulating a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to achieve exactly www.wmo.int/wcc3 this. Geneva, Switzerland, 31 August – 4 September 2009 A global framework for climate Geneva International Conference Centre services is proposed as the significant concrete outcome from WCC-3. It is well placed to build on the remarkable management—are increasingly will ensure that adaptation decisions scientific progress of the past 50 years concerned by the growing adverse are smarter, more effective and better and the solid institutional foundation impacts of climate risks, but are ill- targeted. provided by the international climate equipped to make use of the available observation, research and assessment climate information. There is an In order to address the need for mechanisms put in place by WMO urgent need for a global framework improved climate information and an and its partner organizations over that defines the interface between effective interface between scientists the 30 years since the historic the providers and users of climate and decision-makers, WMO and its First World Climate Conference of services to ensure that relevant partner organizations, which are February 1979. climate information is integrated co-sponsoring WCC-3, propose the into policy development and development and establishment of decision-making. a new Global Framework for Climate Why is a Global Services whose goal is to: Recent advances in science and Framework for Climate technology offer the prospect of Enable climate adaptation Services necessary? continued improvement in climate and climate risk management information and prediction services. through the incorporation Decision-makers in many climate– In particular, integrating seasonal to of science-based climate sensitive sectors—water, agriculture, decadal predictions and long-term information and prediction fisheries, health, forestry, transport, climate projections into decision- into policy and practice at all tourism, energy, disaster risk making in all socio-economic sectors levels.

162 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 What is the Global Water Energy Sectoral users Framework for Agriculture Ecosystem

Climate Services? Health Tourism

The Framework will have four major User Interface components: Observation and Programme monitoring; Research and Modelling; a Climate Services Information System; and a Climate Services Application Climate Services Programme. The first two components Information System are already well established but are in need of strengthening. The third component, the Climate Services Information System, builds on, and expands, existing components of the Components of the Research Observations World Climate Programme among Global Framework for and and others. The fourth component, Climate Services modelling monitoring the Climate Services Application Programme, is entirely new and will require an extensive partnership information. It will bridge the gap systems for climate and climate- among a range of international and between the climate information related variables; national organizations in order to being developed by climate scientists make climate information effectively and service providers on the one hand • Enhanced climate modelling and reach decision-makers in all socio- and the practical needs of information prediction capabilities through economic sectors. users—decision-makers—on the other. strengthened international climate It will support and foster necessary research focused on seasonal-to- The Climate Services Information institutional partnerships, cross- decadal timescales; System will be built on established disciplinary research, innovation, global programmes such as the World development of decision-support • Improved national climate service Climate Programme and its various tools and climate risk management provision arrangements based on elements and will reinforce and further practices, capture of knowledge, enhanced observation networks develop, existing institutions, their evaluation and establishment of and prediction models, and greatly infrastructure and mechanisms. It best practices, education, capacity- increased user interaction; will synthesize information streaming building and service application for from the first two components through decision-making. • More effective use of global, a network of global, regional and regional and national climate national institutions and ensure the information and prediction development and delivery of user- services in climate-sensitive oriented climate information and What will be achieved sectors in all countries; and prediction services. It will focus, through the Global in particular, on standardization, • Widespread social, economic and exchange and quality assurance of Framework for environmental benefits through information and delivering them to Climate Services? better informed climate risk decision-makers from global to local management and capacities for scales. The System will also build A successful Framework will support adaptation to climate variability capacity among national and regional disaster risk management and the and change. meteorological service providers in alleviation of poverty and help to developing and Least Developed achieve internationally agreed upon Countries, whose contributions goals, including the United Nations are essential for improved climate Millennium Development Goals. Who will participate in information products at both global Effective implementation of the the Global Framework regional and national scales. Framework would further lead to: for Climate Services? The new Climate Services Application • Strengthened national Programme is the interface between observational networks and In addition to the development of the providers and users of climate information-management climate data products, for which

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 163 WMO is the unassailable world specific commitments and support further develop the Framework along leader, the Global Framework requires from developing, as well as developed, the lines of the Global Framework extensive collaboration and outreach countries will be required to maintain Concept Note approved by the to communities in all socio-economic appropriate national and regional WCC-3 International Organizing sectors which will benefit from the institutions. The developed countries Committee and in wide consultation application of climate data and would be expected to facilitate the with all relevant partners within nine information in policy development and participation of the Least Developed months of WCC-3. Within the same decision-making. This outreach will be Countries and developing countries timeframe, it would develop an action facilitated if it includes consultations as service providers and users. plan, measurable indicators and a with a broad base of participants from timeline for the establishment and diverse organizations both within and implementation of the Framework, outside the UN system, as well as including the identification of an governments. What are the next overarching organizational body for steps in developing a the Framework and an indication of Implementing the Framework will funding requirements. The task force require broad collaboration and Global Framework for would report back to the UN system, partnerships. National and local Climate Services? governments and other relevant governments, agencies, non- organizations on the proposed next governmental organizations, civil While a successful Framework will steps for establishing the Framework society, the private sector, as well as support disaster risk management and implementing it within their universities and research institutions, and the alleviation of poverty and help respective organizations. will all need to contribute to the achieve internationally agreed upon success of the Framework. In addition, goals, including the UN Millennium The Framework will contribute to the Framework is supported by the Development Goals, it may be difficult the UN Framework Convention on entire United Nations System and for a new initiative to gain traction in Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali Action other organizations contributing to the the midst of other global crises. For Plan, especially the Nairobi Work climate knowledge component of “the this reason, and to gain access to Programme, and inform discussion at United Nations System Delivering as decision-makers with the greatest the 15th session of the Conference of One” initiative. influence, the WCC-3 International Parties to the UNFCCC in Copenhagen, Organizing Committee determined Denmark, in December 2009, as a that a task force made up of high- possible mechanism for building the level individuals representing a broad individual and collective capacities of How will the Global spectrum of socio-economic sectors nations to adapt to climate change. Framework for Climate and regions could act as “champions” in reaching out to world experts in Services be financed? all sectors.

Financial support for the imple­ Following high-level endorsement mentation of the Global Framework of the concept of the Framework, within a stipulated time will need to it is proposed that a task force of be established through a range of independent advisers, supported by mechanisms. The expectation is that a broad-based group of experts, will

164 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Disaster risk reduction, climate risk management and sustainable development by Margareta Wahlström*

Introduction by disasters, 960 000 people died environmental degradation, though and economic losses amounted to climate change is also beginning to Disaster risks have risen over US$ 1.193 billion [3]. Poor countries show its hand. The poor have the recent decades, and more extreme are disproportionately affected, most to lose in a disaster, both as weather conditions in future are likely because of intrinsic vulnerabilities individuals and as countries, as they to increase the number and scale of to hazards and comparatively low lack the information, resources, disasters. capacities for risk-reduction measures, capacities and social safety nets and they will suffer the most from needed to protect their assets and At the same time, the existing methods climate change. Small countries livelihoods. and tools of disaster risk reduction, are also particularly vulnerable: and climate risk management in Grenada’s losses of US$ 919 million Concentrations of people and assets particular, provide powerful capacities as a result of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 are growing in urban areas, often for substantially reducing risks and were equal to 2.5 times its gross in high-risk areas such as storm- adapting to climate change. domestic product (GDP). By contrast, exposed coasts, flooding river deltas, the largest and wealthiest countries earthquake-prone valleys and volcanic Climate change is no longer in doubt. have diversified economies and slopes. Cities may not have proper The science has been thoroughly risk transfer mechanisms and while drainage and flood protection, may elaborated and assessed in the losses may amount to billions, such not apply effective building codes and Fourth Assessment Report of the economies can cope overall, as was are often dependent on vulnerable Intergovernmental Panel on Climate the case with the USA and Hurricane sources of essential water and energy Change (IPCC), [1,2] even if some Katrina in 2005. Over the last two supplies. Environmental buffers may details remain to be researched. decades (1988-2007), 76 per cent of be badly damaged and overuse of Furthermore, new evidence is all disaster events were hydrological, natural resources can lead to their accumulating of changes around meteorological or climatological in depletion and pollution. When a major us, such as Arctic ice melting that is nature; these accounted for 45 per hazard event strikes, this concentration happening faster than was predicted cent of the deaths and 79 per cent of vulnerability can cause severe by the IPCC reports. It seems that the of the economic losses caused by impacts and the destruction of hard- more we know from new evidence, natural hazards. won development gains. These, in the more serious and challenging our turn, may destabilize public order, future is. According to the landmark Global leading to political instability. Climate Assessment Report on Disaster change is the new factor in risk for this Over the period 1991-2005, Risk Reduction Risk and Poverty millennium and is a direct result of the 3 470 million people were affected in a Changing Climate [4], which same processes that have led to the was launched on 17 May 2009, our accumulation of disaster risk. exposure and vulnerability to weather and climate hazards are growing, At the global level, there is concern by * United Nations Assistant Secretary-General resulting in continued rises in the humanitarian actors that the demands for Disaster Risk Reduction and Special numbers and costs of disasters. and costs for response actions are Representative of the Secretary-General for the Implementation of the Hyogo Disaster risk is accumulating largely as increasing beyond their capacities Framework for Action a result of unplanned settlements and to effectively assist, and that this

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 165 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E 180° 160°W 140°W and disasters when they occur and, 80°N 80°N N secondly, to work to reduce the root causes of crises and disasters. There is a new commitment by humanitarians 60°N 60°N to pay attention to disaster risk reduction and climate change, and some donors have targeted 10 per

40°N 40°N cent of their humanitarian budgets for investment in disaster risk reduction.

20°N 20°N Disaster risk reduction is defined in the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) terminology as “action taken to reduce the risk of 0° 0° 0500 1 000 2 000 disasters and the adverse impacts of Kilometres natural hazards, through systematic 40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E efforts to analyse and manage the Weather-related hazards causes of disasters, including through Droughts index Tropical cyclones Floods (frequency and intensity) (sum of winds in km/year) (average annual frequency) avoidance of hazards, reduced Very high 100 000–426 510 >50 Lakes and oceans social and economic vulnerability to High 30 000–100 000 20–50 Regional extent hazards, and improved preparedness Moderate high 10 000–30 000 <20 Other regions for adverse events” [5]. It is therefore Moderate low 3 000–10 000

Low <3 000 tailor-made to help counteract the added risks arising from climate 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E 180° 160°W 140°W 80°N 80°N change. N

It is human nature to be somewhat

60°N 60°N resistant to change as long as people are comfortable in their current situations. We do not want to believe or accept changes that might bring 40°N 40°N us uncertain or possibly negative impacts. Even if affected by some anxiety, we tend to think until the last moment that our house and family and 20°N 20°N we ourselves, will be all right and that it will be others who are affected. This tendency is quite common in most

0° 0° cultures, but it is an enemy of action 0500 1 000 2 000 to adapt to changing environments Kilometres and risks, both at the individual and 40°E 60°E 80°E 100°E 120°E 140°E 160°E collective levels. Tectonic hazards Earthquakes Landslides Tsunami height (MMI for 10% in 50 years) (intensity and frequency) (coasts covered by the model) >5 m Nevertheless, more people than IX + Very High Lakes and oceans 2–5 m ever before are aware of the threats VIII High Regional extent <2 m VII Medium Other regions associated with climate change and Not studied V – VI of the need for both mitigation (of greenhouse-gas emissions) and Multi-hazard map of Asia (United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk adaptation (to the inevitable changes Reduction (2009), page 23) in the climate). Radical changes in our socio-economic models and will worsen with climate change. A are initiated by the United Nations behaviour are needed if we are to record number of 13 international in response to disasters and other substantially reduce greenhouse- humanitarian “flash appeals”, mostly sudden humanitarian crises. The gas emissions and, for this reason, for climate-related events, were made humanitarian community has two mitigation occupies the bulk of climate in 2007. These appeals to donors roles—firstly, to respond to crises negotiators’ attention at present.

166 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Irrespective of our success at • It is very likely that there will Industry, settlement and society this task, however, the legacy of be more precipitation at higher historical emissions means that latitudes and it is likely that there The most vulnerable industries, we will increasingly face changes will be less precipitation in most settlements and societies are in climate and increases in disaster sub-tropical land areas; generally those located in coastal risks in the coming years. For poor areas and river floodplains and those countries, which have contributed • It is likely that tropical cyclones whose economies are closely linked so little to the problem, but face (typhoons and hurricanes) will with climate-sensitive resources. This the largest impacts, the issue of become more intense, with larger applies particularly to locations already adaptation is a particularly critical peak wind speeds and more prone to extreme weather events and, issue. Many significant steps need to heavy precipitation associated especially, areas undergoing rapid be taken, with serious commitment with ongoing increases of tropical urbanization. Where extreme weather and concrete actions, if we are to sea-surface temperatures. events become more intense or more properly address the climate change frequent, the associated economic problem. It is vital to vigorously How climate change will and social costs will increase. propagate the culture “be prepared affect key sectors and have no regrets” in the contexts Health of climate change and growing disaster risk. In the absence of countermeasures, The projected changes in climate climate change will affect many are likely to alter the health status of sectors that are directly relevant millions of people through, among Climate change to disaster risks, including water others, increased deaths, disease management, food and agriculture, and injury due to heatwaves, floods, and adaptation industry, human settlement and storms, fires and droughts. Increased land use, health and even national malnutrition, diarrhoeal disease and Main projections for security. The main effects expected malaria in some areas will increase climate change are as follows. vulnerability to extreme public health and development goals will The projections of future climate Water be threatened by longer-term damage patterns are largely based on to health systems from disasters. computer-based models of the Drought-affected areas will likely climate system that incorporate the become more widely distributed. Security important factors and processes of the Heavier precipitation events are atmosphere and the oceans, including very likely to increase in frequency, The impacts of climate change on the expected growth in greenhouse leading to higher flood risks. By mid- security are uncertain and speculative, gases from various socio-economic century, water availability will likely but may become significant in some scenarios for the coming decades. decrease in mid-latitudes, in the dry circumstances. Potential concerns The IPCC has examined the published tropics and in other regions supplied include: competition for scarce and results from many different models by meltwater from mountain ranges. depleting water resources; particularly and on the basis of the evidence as at More than one-sixth of the world’s in trans-border settings; migration and 2007 has estimated that by 2100: population is currently dependent on competition for food-growing land in meltwater from mountain ranges. low rainfall regions; mass migration • The global average surface from flooded coastal zones or small warming (surface air temperature Food islands; civil disorder associated with change), will increase by severe disaster events, especially in 1.1°C-6.4°C; While some mid- and high-latitude urban areas; and political frustration areas will initially benefit from higher of groups or countries who perceive • Sea level will rise between 18 and agricultural production, for many they are unfairly affected by climate 59 cm; others at lower latitudes, especially change. in seasonally dry and tropical regions, • The oceans will become more the increases in temperature and the Climate change acidic; frequency of droughts and floods are likely to affect crop production and disasters • It is very likely that heat extremes, negatively, which could increase the heatwaves and heavy precipitation number of people at risk from hunger, Natural hazards by themselves do not events will continue to become as well as the levels of displacement cause disasters—it is the combination more frequent; and migration. of an exposed, vulnerable and ill-

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 167 well as contributing to changes in the distribution of droughts. Changes in sea-surface temperatures, wind patterns and decreased snow pack and snow cover have also been linked to changing drought occurrence.

Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed in many regions of the world over the last 50 years; most notably the higher frequency of high-temperature days and nights.

There is good evidence for an increase of the more damaging intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, which is correlated with increases in tropical sea-surface temperatures. However, according to the IPCC, there is no clear trend evident to date in the global annual number of tropical cyclones.

It is difficult to provide projections of all the disaster-related effects of climate change, owing to the intrinsic uncertainty in the climate projections, the diverse and rapidly changing nature of community vulnerability, and the random nature of individual extreme events. However, there is a prepared population or community in extreme conditions relevant to great deal of information from past with a hazard event that results disaster occurrence are as follows. events that can be extrapolated to in a disaster. Climate change will the conditions projected by the IPCC therefore affect disaster risks in Many long-term precipitation trends to estimate the likely disaster-related two ways: firstly, through the likely (1900-2005) have been observed, consequences in general terms, as increase in weather and climate including significant increases in follows: hazards and effects of sea-level rise; eastern parts of North and South and, secondly, through the increases America, northern Europe and north­ • More heatwaves will increase the in vulnerability of communities ern and central Asia, and more dry number of deaths, particularly to natural hazards resulting from conditions in the Sahel and southern among the elderly, the very ecosystem degradation, reductions Africa, throughout the Mediterranean young or among people who in water and food availability and region and in parts of southern Asia. are chronically ill, socially changes to livelihoods. Climate The frequency of heavy precipitation isolated or otherwise especially change will thus add another events has increased over most land vulnerable; stress to those of environmental areas, which is consistent with global degradation and rapid, unplanned warming and the observed increases • Increased drought in some urban growth, further reducing of atmospheric water vapour. regions will likely lead to land communities’ abilities to cope with degradation, damage to crops even the existing levels of weather More intense and longer droughts or reduced yields, more livestock hazards. have been observed over wider deaths and an increased risk of areas since the 1970s, particularly wildfire. Such conditions will There is already evidence of increases in the tropics and subtropics. increase the risks for populations in extreme conditions for some Higher temperatures and decreased dependent on subsistence weather elements in some regions. precipitation have increased the agriculture, through food and The IPCC conclusions on changes prevalence of drier conditions, as water shortage and higher

168 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 incidence of malnutrition and disaster risk reduction. Its preparation In support of the Bali Action Plan, water- and food-borne diseases, will involve hundreds of experts and based on consultation with ISDR and may lead to displacements of worldwide and will be completed by system partners and UNFCCC Parties, populations; mid-2011. The meteorological and the UNISDR has arranged for the hydrological science communities are participation of developing country • Increased frequency of high encouraged to actively contribute to disaster risk experts in the UNFCCC precipitation in some regions this assessment process. meetings and, similarly, has invited will trigger floods and landslides, climate change experts to participate with potentially large losses of Disaster risk reduction in sessions of the Global Platform life and assets. These events will for Disaster Risk Reduction. At the disrupt agriculture, settlements, in the UNFCCC process 14th session of the Conference of the commerce and transport and may and the Bali Action Plan Parties in Poznan, Poland, December further increase pressures on 2008, UNISDR was invited to provide a urban and rural infrastructure; The Bali Action Plan, agreed at the presentation on disaster risk reduction 13th session of the Conference of at an official workshop of UNFCCC • Possible increases in the number the Parties to the United Nations Parties held on these issues. At the and intensity of very strong Framework Convention on Climate national level, UNISDR has identified tropical cyclones will affect Change (UNFCCC) held in Bali, and promoted the following two coastal regions, with potentially Indonesia, December 2007, provided tasks that are particularly relevant additional large losses of lives the guide for the negotiations on to National Meteorological and and assets; the global climate agreement that is Hydrological Services. expected to apply from 2012 [7]. Its • Sea-level rise, coupled with coastal directions for adaptation call for the The first is to improve the interactions storms, will increase the impacts consideration of: and coordination within countries of storm surge and river flooding to link disaster risk reduction and and damage livelihood systems Risk management and risk adaptation policies. This can be and protective ecosystems. reduction strategies, including assisted, for example, through such Low-lying settlements may risk sharing and transfer things as: convening interdepartmental become unviable, which may mechanisms such as insurance; and national consultation meetings result in increased potential for Disaster reduction strategies with personnel and experts from movement of population and loss and means to address loss and disaster risk reduction, climate change of infrastructure; damage associated with climate and development fields; formally change impacts in developing cross-linking the national platform • Higher temperatures and melting countries that are particularly for disaster risk reduction and the glaciers may cause glacial lake vulnerable to the adverse effects national climate change team through outbursts that could flood of climate change. systematic dialogue and information downstream settlements. exchange; and conducting joint The inclusion of these concepts baseline assessments on the status of is a major advance that will have disaster risk reduction and adaptation With a view to providing a better positive repercussions for reducing efforts. definition of future disaster risks and disaster risks and improving risk of the available methods to manage management in the future. The ISDR The second is to prepare adaptation and reduce them, the UNISDR and system partners and Secretariat plans drawing on the Hyogo the Government of Norway jointly assisted this step through inputs Framework. Based on the assessment developed a proposal over 2008 and to the internal UN preparatory of needs and gaps, this task could 2009 for a new IPCC Special Report processes coordinated by the UN include the joint development of on Managing the Risks of Extreme Secretary-General in 2007 and to the a disaster reduction plan and an Events and Disasters to Advance activities of the UNFCCC Secretariat. adaptation plan. These activities Climate Change Adaptation [6]. The Many of the general principles and should capitalize on National IPCC decided in April 2009 to go ahead requirements for adaptation that are Adaptation Plans of Action where with this report process. The Special listed in the Bali Action Plan are also present and other adaptation Report will provide an authoritative highly relevant to reducing disaster initiatives and should use the assessment of disaster risk reduction risk, particularly vulnerability concepts and language of the Hyogo and management policies and assessments, capacity-building Framework where appropriate, ideally practices, including their effectiveness and response strategies, as well as with action on all five of the Hyogo and costs, and will provide a sounder integration of actions into sectoral Framework’s priorities (see “Priorities basis for action on adaptation and and national planning. for action and practical examples”,

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 169 below) to ensure a comprehensive, Nevertheless, collaboration between the Hyogo Framework. In general, integrated and systematic approach the insurance industry and public progress has been greatest in the to adaptation. sector authorities can potentially help areas of institutional development to promote risk reduction through, and early warning and preparedness, Risk transfer mechanisms including for example: data sharing; joint and for middle- and higher-income insurance are noted in the Bali Action awareness raising and risk education; countries. Progress has been least Plan as potential elements in a new cooperation to ensure accurate risk in the areas of environmental and climate agreement. Insurance and pricing; collaborative improvement of sectoral concerns (which are often the other risk transfer mechanisms have enabling conditions and regulations sources of vulnerability and risk) and been long used to manage risks that such as legislation and financial among the lowest-income countries would be too large for individual oversight and monitoring; and the (where the intrinsic risks are often people and companies to bear on joint development of specific risk- highest). This shows that much needs their own, by transferring some reducing activities by policy-holders to be done to address the real causes exposure to third parties with a more as a prerequisite for insurance of risk and to integrate risk reduction stable financial basis in exchange of a cover. into ongoing development policies premium. Among the poor, however, and programmes. especially in developing countries, insurance is not widely used. One Adaptation through The Global Platform for Disaster Risk question is whether insurance can Reduction is the main global multi- be used as a tool to encourage risk- disaster risk reduction stakeholder forum on disaster risk reducing behaviours. A recent study and the role of the reduction. At its second session in of the linkages between insurance and Hyogo Framework Geneva, 16-19 June 2009, it brought disaster risk reduction by a group of together 1 500 representatives of leading experts has been published governments, UN agencies, regional by UNISDR [8]. The Hyogo Framework bodies, international financial for Action institutions, civil society, the private There is some experience in sector and the scientific and academic developing countries with index-based The Hyogo Framework for Action communities with the following aims: climate micro-insurance, for example provides the global foundation for to raise awareness of disaster risk, among low-income households, with the implementation of disaster risk to share experience, and to provide financial coverage for climate risks, reduction [9]. Agreed at the World guidance to the ISDR system on in Bolivia, Ethiopia, India, Malawi, Conference on Disaster Reduction how to better support countries to Mongolia and Sudan. A multi-country in January 2005, in Kobe, Japan, implement the Hyogo Framework index-based catastrophe insurance by 168 governments, its intended for Action. The session reviewed pool has recently been established outcome for the decade is “the a number of key issues, including among Caribbean island States. substantial reduction of losses, in the status of disaster risk, progress Index-based systems usually require lives and in the social, economic and on its reduction, the reduction of a basis of quality meteorological data environmental assets of communities disaster risk in a changing climate, for calculating the risks and deciding and countries”. It specifically identifies achieving safer schools and hospitals, on payout thresholds. the need to “promote the integration improving early warning systems, of risk reduction associated with building community resilience, While these insurance schemes existing climate variability and future and the financing of disaster risk indicate some potential to provide climate change into strategies for reduction. improved security to vulnerable the reduction of disaster risk and people and countries facing climate adaptation to climate change...”. The outcomes of the session change, few programmes to date provide important stepping stones have a disaster reduction perspective Mixed progress is being made in to the deliberations at World or specific incentives to reduce implementing the Hyogo Framework. Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3), disaster losses. Moreover, insurance A reporting process developed by Geneva, 31 August–4 September and other risk transfer methods will UNISDR has resulted in systematic 2009. Together, these two events be challenged by the increasingly reports from about 100 countries. offer a valuable opportunity to frequent and intense events and These have been summarized in the develop concrete plans to address hence growth of potential losses, Global Assessment Report on Disaster today’s pressing needs for climate and are unlikely to be able to deal Risk Reduction, which provides change adaptation and disaster risk with slow longer-term foreseeable a comprehensive assessment of reduction. There is clearly a need for changes like sea-level rise and disaster risk, its relation to poverty and a new thrust to build a coordinated desertification. the progress towards implementing global mechanism that can reliably

170 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 provide accessible and usable climate information for risk assessment, risk management and risk reduction at all levels of society.

Priorities for action and practical examples

Based on a review of past successes and failures in reducing disaster risks, the Hyogo Framework sets out five priorities for action, as follows, each elaborated into a number of specific areas of attention where concrete risk-reducing adaptation measures are required. Each one requires the engagement and inputs of the meteorological and hydrological communities.

Priority for action 1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation

This priority is important for both SEEDS INDIA adaptation and risk reduction. Suggested actions toward achieving it Indian Himalayan state of Himacha include: encouraging a core ministry with a broad mandate including finance, economics or planning, to high-quality information about and personal actions that contribute be responsible for mainstreaming climate hazards and their likely future to safety and resilience; publicizing climate change adaptation policies changes; conducting assessments of community successes; training the and activities; organizing a national vulnerability and specially vulnerable media in climate-related issues; high-level policy dialogue to prepare a groups; preparing briefings for policy- developing education curricula on national adaptation strategy that links makers and sector leaders; reviewing climate adaptation and risk reduction; with disaster risk reduction strategies; the effectiveness of early warning supporting research programmes on formalizing collaboration and the systems; implementing procedures resilience; and improving mechanisms coordination of climate-related risk to ensure warnings reach vulnerable for knowledge transfer from science reduction activities through a multi- groups; and undertaking public to application for risk management in sector mechanism such as a national information programmes to help climate-sensitive sectors. platform for disaster risk reduction; people understand the risks they face and developing mechanisms to and how to respond to warnings. Priority for action 4: Reduce actively engage and empower women, the underlying risk factors communities and local governments Priority for action 3: Use in the assessment of vulnerability and knowledge, innovation and This covers the many environmental impacts and the formulation of local education to build a culture of and societal factors that create or adaptation activities. safety and resilience at all levels exacerbate the risks from natural hazards. Measures can include Priority for action 2: Identify, This principle applies equally incorporating climate risk-related assess and monitor disaster risks to adaptation and disaster risk considerations in the development and enhance early warning reduction. Specific steps should planning processes, macro-economic include collating and disseminating projections and sector plans; requiring Important steps under this priority good practices; undertaking public the use of climate risk-related include developing and disseminating information programmes on local information in city planning, land-

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 171 use planning, water management and changing planting times and cropping number of fatalities caused by future environmental and natural resource patterns and altering land topography heatwaves in response to the heat- management; strengthening and to improve water uptake and reduce related deaths during the summer of maintaining protective works such wind erosion. Diversification is an 2003. This could be only done with the as coastal wave barriers, river levees, option, for example, by combining food meteorological information generated flood ways and flood ponds; requiring crops, livestock and agro-forestry. The by the National Weather Service. routine assessment and reporting introduction of insurance schemes of climate risks in infrastructure can help people cope with crop Awareness raising and education projects, building designs and other losses. The options would be fewer, engineering practices; developing of course, without dependable climate Measures include curriculum risk transfer mechanisms and social information provided by National development for schools, supply of safety nets; supporting programmes Meteorological and Hydrological information to community groups for diversification of livelihoods; and Services. and women’s networks, radio and instituting adaptation activities in plans television programmes, public poster for recovery from specific disasters. Water sector campaigns and leadership by national figures and celebrities. Awareness- Priority for action 5: Strengthen Adaptation measures include actions raising for strategic intermediaries disaster preparedness for on both water supply and water risks, such as teachers, journalists and effective response at all levels such as protecting water supply politicians and support to technical infrastructure and traditional water experts and groups are also important. Actions include revising preparedness supply sources, developing flood Among other things, National Meteo­ plans and contingency plans to ponds, water harvesting, improved rological and Hydrological Services account for the projected changes irrigation, desalination, non-water- can provide sound scientific and in existing hazards and new hazards based sanitation and improved technical knowledge to support these not experienced before; building watershed and transboundary water activities, including by providing clear evacuation mechanisms and shelter resource management. Integrated understanding of basic concepts and facilities; developing specific water resource management provides terms, such as weather, climate, preparedness plans for areas where the accepted framework for such climate change, disaster risk, etc. settlements and livelihoods are actions. It has been reported that under threat of permanent change; China spent US$ 3.15 billion on flood Environmental management and supporting community-based control between 1960 and 2000, which preparedness initiatives. Resilience is estimated to have averted losses of Healthy ecosystems provide risk building and early warning systems about US$ 12 billion, and that the Rio reduction services with significant also contribute to this priority. de Janeiro flood reconstruction and benefits for resilience, livelihoods prevention project in Brazil yielded an and adaptive capacity. Measures internal rate of return exceeding 50. can include strengthening of Needless to say, the roles of national environmental management in areas Examples of adaptation hydrological institutes are critical for at greatest risk from weather hazards; and disaster risk water management. protecting ecosystems, such as coral reduction by sector reefs or mangrove forests, that shield Health sector communities from coastal hazards; In most sectors that are relevant supporting transitions of livelihoods or sensitive to climate change, the Measures include early warning away from those that degrade role of National Meteorological and systems and air-conditioning to environments and aggravate risk; Hydrological Services is crucial, both address extreme weather events; and enforcing regulations concerning for provision of data and expertise systematic action on water- and these practices. As one example, a and for collaboration on design vector-borne diseases to raise public mangrove-planting project in Viet and implementation of policies and awareness of watershed protection, Nam aimed at protecting coastal programmes. Some examples of cost vector control and safe water- and populations from typhoons and effective actions are given below food-handling regulations; the storms was reported to yield an [10]. enforcement of relevant regulations; estimated benefit/cost ratio of 52 and support for education, research over the period 1994-2001. Agriculture and food security: and development on climate-related health risks. As one example, Early warning systems Well-known measures include Philadelphia (USA) developed an altering crop strains to enhance excessive heat event notification and National Meteorological and Hydro­ their resistance to drought and pest, response programme to reduce the logical Services play an obvious key

172 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 role here. New emphasis can be put Disaster in September 2007, led by the assets have not been brought together on measures to improve existing Founding Chair Han Seung-soo, Prime in a coherent and effective way, with systems to cover the changed Minister of the Republic of Korea. the sustained participation of all fields hazard circumstances, to ensure The Panel subsequently produced its of expertise and responsibility, to dissemination of warnings to all report with 40 concrete actions under achieve systematic global reduction affected people in a timely, useful six urgent imperatives [12]. These in risks. Many problems remain, as and understandable way, with advice included the following three cross- is clear from the continued growth of on appropriate actions to take upon cutting initiatives that are particularly vulnerabilities and disaster impacts. receiving warnings. A comprehensive relevant to National Meteorological Developing countries are the most UN survey of early warning systems and Hydrological Services, where the at risk, but all countries are exposed identified major gaps in coverage for Panel decided to: and none can ignore this whirlpool some hazards and some countries: of issues. much more action is needed to address • Call on national governments these shortcomings, especially given to declare hydro-climatic data National Meteorological and Hydro­ the important role of early warning as public goods to be shared logical Services need to be fully as an adaptation policy. [11] at all levels (regional, national engaged in these processes. They and local) in order to assist in are well placed through their specialist Development planning disaster risk reduction, and seek expertise and years of experience in and practices United Nations General Assembly dealing with weather impacts, climate endorsement; variability and sector partners, and Adaptation and disaster risk reduction can provide key capacities to help measures need to be made a formal • Call on the delta States to establish integrate across the range of time­ part of development processes and a Large Delta States Network to scales from short-term hazards and budgets and programmed into relevant jointly tackle the negative impacts daily risk management to longer-term sector projects, for example in the of sea-level rise associated with variation and change of the climate. design of settlements, infrastructure, ongoing climate change; coastal zone development, forest Suggested areas for attention use, etc., in order to avoid hazardous • National and international hydro­ include: applying best practice for areas, ensure the security of critical logical institutes must take the tropical storm predictions and public infrastructure such as hospitals, initiative to identify underlying response; implementing monitoring schools and communications facilities analytical and data requirements and response systems for high and to achieve sustainable land to meet climate changes that are rainfall, flash floods and landslides, management. Again, National Meteo­ likely to be highly uncertain and especially in urban and other rological and Hydrological Services so as to support structural and populated areas; drawing lessons and associated research institutes non-structural measures for from, and improving the management need to be active partners in these disaster risk reduction. of, El Niño/La Niña and other seasonal policy and planning processes. impacts; monitoring and managing The Panel’s recommendations offer regional-scale drought and multi- specific concrete actions on water year anomalies; and contributing Water and disaster: risks and disasters that deserve close data and associated spatial and support and follow-up. The Panel has temporal modelling for national new recommendations proposed specific responsibilities risk assessments. Achieving more for actions for monitoring progress on the globally systematic data collection implementation of the actions, and dissemination for climate The United Nations Secretary- including for UNISDR and WMO. research and sector management General’s Advisory Board on Water is an important priority. National and Sanitation (UNSGAB) is tasked Meteorological and Hydrological with raising awareness and building Conclusions Services can also play a leading role in common understanding of global actively supporting the development water issues, promoting cooperation, The linkages between climate of institutional mechanisms to link and encouraging responsible and change, disaster risk reduction, disaster risk reduction and adaptation sustainable water management national development and sectoral policy-making at national level. practices. In order to develop concrete management are plain to see. follow-up actions for disaster risk Significant relevant knowledge and International mechanisms, such as reduction following the Hashimoto technical capacities exist, along with the WMO system, the IPCC, the ISDR Action Plan, UNSGAB established the necessary international strategies and the World Bank’s Global Facility High-Level Expert Panel on Water and and frameworks for action. Yet these for Disaster Risk Reduction and

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 173 Recovery, together with their various [4] United Nations, 2009: Global [10] UNISDR, 2008: Climate Change and frameworks and forums, in particular Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Reduction. UNISDR Reduction. www.preventionweb. Briefing Note 01.http://www.unisdr. the Hyogo Framework, the Global net/gar09. org/eng/risk-reduction/climate- Platform for Disaster Risk reduction change/docs/Climate-Change-DRR. and World Climate Conference-3, [5] UN International Strategy for pdf Disaster Reduction, 2009: UNISDR are important crucibles for the new Terminology on Disaster Risk [11] UN, 2006: Global Survey of Early ideas, commitments and coordination Reduction. Available in the five Warning Systems, an assessment of that are needed. These are not ends UN languages http://www.unisdr. capacities, gaps and opportunities in themselves, of course, but are org/eng/terminology/terminology- towards building a comprehensive 2009-eng.html. global early warning system for all essential means to devise and guide natural hazards. United Nations. accelerated concrete action where [6] Proposal for an IPCC special report 46pp. www.unisdr.org/ppew/info- it counts, namely, supporting the on managing the risk of extreme resources/ewc3/Global-Survey-of- events to advance climate change Early-Warning-Systems.pdf permanent reduction of vulnerability adaptation, Government of and risk for all countries and all Norway and UNISDR, 2008. IPCC- [12] The High-Level Panel on Water and people. 29, Document 6. http://www.ipcc. Disaster/UNSGAB, 2009. Water and ch/meetings/session29/doc6.pdf, Disaster, Prevention and Action to and http://www.preventionweb. Minimize Death and Destruction. net/english/professional/ http://www.preventionweb.net/ References and bibliography publications/v.php?id=8150. See files/8609_WaterandDisaster.pdf. also IPCC Press statement, 23 April 2009 http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ [1] IPCC, 2007(a): IPCC Fourth Assess­ press-releases/ipcc_pr_antalya_ ment Report, Working Group I april_2009.pdf Report The Physical Science Basis, Intergovernmental Panel on [7] Bali Action Plan, 2007. Agreed at Climate Change. http://www.ipcc. the 13th Conference of the Parties ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm (COP), Bali, December 2007. FCCC/ CP/2007/6/Add.1*, Page 3, Decision [2] IPCC, 2007(b): IPCC Fourth 1/CP.13. http://unfccc.int/resource/ Assessment Report, Working docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01. Group II Report Impacts, Adaptation pdf#page=3. and Vulnerability. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [8] Warner, K., N. Range; S. Surminski, http://195.70.10.65/ipccreports/ar4- M. Arnold, J. Linnnerooth-Bayer, wg2.htm. E. Michel-Kerjan, P. Kovacs, C. Herweijer, 2009: Adaptation to [3] Disaster statistics and summaries Climate Change: Linking Disaster are available from: (a) Centre for Risk Reduction and Insurance. Research on the Epidemiology of UNISDR, Geneva, 20 pp. Disasters (CRED) http://www.cred. be; (b) Munich Reinsurance, http:// [9] Hyogo Framework for Action www.munichre.com/en/ts/geo_ 2005-2015: Building the resilience risks/natcatservice/default.aspx; and of nations and communities to (c) UNISDR http://www.unisdr.org/ disasters (HFA). http://www.unisdr. disaster-statistics/introduction.htm. org/eng/hfa/hfa.htm.

174 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework by Filippo Giorgi1, Colin Jones2 and Ghassem R. Asrar3

Introduction changes in land use and atmospheric bridge this spatial scale gap (Giorgi et aerosol loadings. They have also al., 2001). They have been traditionally The need for climate change infor­ provided valuable information on divided into “dynamical” and mation at the regional-to-local scale climate change at the global to “statistical” downscaling techniques. is one of the central issues within sub-continental scale (IPCC, 2007). Dynamical downscaling (DD) makes the global change debate. Such Although we have seen significant use of physically based models, such information is necessary in order to improvements in these models, as high-resolution and variable- assess the impacts of climate change especially in the past decade, due to resolution global atmospheric on human and natural systems and better representation of atmospheric models (AGCMs and VARGCMs, to develop suitable adaptation and and Earth surface processes and respectively) run in “time-slice” mode mitigation strategies at the national enhanced computational capabilities, (e.g. Cubasch et al., 1995; Deque and level. The end-user and policy-making the horizontal resolution of most Piedelievre, 1995) and limited-area communities have long sought present-day AOGCMs is still of the “regional climate models” or RCMs reliable regional- and local-scale order of a few hundred kilometres (Giorgi and Mearns, 1999). projections to provide a solid basis (Meehl et al., 2007). This prevents them for guiding response options. from capturing the effects of local In statistical downscaling (SD), forcings (e.g. complex topography statistical relationships are first To date, most regional climate- and land-surface characteristics) developed between large-scale change information has been based which modulate the climate signal predictors and regional-to-local- on the use of Coupled Atmosphere- at fine scales. scale predictands and are then Ocean General Circulation models applied to the output from climate- (AOGCMs) enabled by the World Coarse resolution also precludes model simulations (Hewitson Climate Research Programme global models from providing an and Crane, 1996). Although many (WCRP) during the past 30 years accurate description of extreme different SD models and techniques (Busalacchi and Asrar, this issue events, which are of fundamental exist (e.g. Wilby et al., 2004; Giorgi of WMO Bulletin). AOGCMs have importance to users of climate et al., 2001; Wigley and Wilby, proved to be the most valuable tools information with respect to the 2000; Hewitson and Crane, 1996), in understanding the processes that regional and local impacts of climate they all share this basic conceptual determine the response of the climate variability and change. In other framework. A number of papers are system to anthropogenic forcings, words, a fundamental spatial scale available in the literature to review such as increases in greenhouse- gap still exists between the climate downscaling work and discuss the gas (GHG) concentrations and information provided by AOGCMs relative merits and limitations of the and the input needed for impact different techniques (Laprise et al., assessment work. 2008; Schmidli et al., 2007; Giorgi,

1 Abdus Salam International Centre for 2006; Wang et al., 2004; Leung et al., Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy In order to circumvent this problem, 2003; Mearns et al., 2003; Murphy, 2 Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological various “regionalization” or “down­ 1999; Giorgi and Mearns, 1999, 1991; and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, scaling” techniques have been McGregor, 1997), and the reader is Sweden 3 Director, World Climate Research Pro- developed to spatially refine the referred to these papers for such gramme, WMO AOGCM climate information and discussions.

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 175 Both dynamical and statistical RCD studies have been isolated and indicate the entire range of spatial downscaling tools, which we refer to tied to specific targeted interests, scales of less than ~10 000 km2. With as regional climate downscaling (or so that a comprehensive picture of this definition, the task of producing RCD) have been increasingly used to regional climate-change projections reliable regional climate projections is address a variety of climate-change based on RCD experiments is extremely difficult, since the regional issues and have by now become currently not available. climate change signal is affected by an important method in climate- processes that occur at a wide range change research (Huntingford and Recognizing this limitation, WCRP of spatial scales from the planetary Gash, 2005). Particularly in the recently formed the Task Force to the synoptic and mesoscale. For last decade, the development and on Regional Climate Downscaling example, the effect of increased use of RCD models have increased (TFRCD) whose mandate is to: greenhouse-gas concentrations will tremendously, as proved by an almost affect the general circulation of the exponential increase in the number • Develop a framework to evaluate atmosphere and the structure of of peer-reviewed publications on this and possibly improve RCD planetary-scale dynamical systems. topic. (For example, searching for techniques for use in downscaling This large scale climate signature is the string “regional climate model” global climate projections; then modulated at the regional to in the information system interfaces local level by a multiplicity of forcings, (ISI) results in fewer than five entries/ • Foster an international including complex topography, year up to 1994 to more than 150 in coordinated effort to produce coastlines and aerosol distribution. 2008.) improved multi-model RCD-based high-resolution While current AOGCMs have proved A reasonable question to ask is climate-change information over quite successful in reproducing whether this tremendous development regions worldwide for input to the main features of the general has resulted in an increased use of impact/adaptation work and circulation (IPCC, 2007), they do not RCD-based products for climate to the IPCC Fifth Assessment represent adequately the effects of change impact assessments. With Report (AR5); regional-to-local-scale forcings. a few exceptions, this is not the Their performance also generally case. For example, most regional • Promote greater interaction deteriorates when going from lower- climate-change material presented and communication between to higher-order climate statistics, in the Fourth Assessment Report global climate modellers, the such as variability, extremes and of the Intergovernmental Panel on downscaling community and weather regimes. In addition, natural Climate Change (IPCC), and further end-users to better support climate variability tends to increase utilized in impact assessment work, impact/adaptation activities. as we move from large to fine scales, is still based on relatively coarse and this makes the identification of resolution AOGCM simulations (e.g. As a result of the first activities of the climate-change signal from the Christensen et al., 2007). the TFRCD, and in consultation with underlying noise more difficult. the broader scientific community, What is the reason for the under- a framework was initiated called While RCD techniques can improve the utilization of RCD-based products? the Coordinated Regional climate AOGCM information at fine scales by We believe that a primary reason is Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). accounting for the effects of regional the lack of a coordinated framework In this article, we describe the status forcings, they are still affected by to evaluate RCD-based techniques and plans for CORDEX, which systematic errors in the coarse- and produce ensemble projections mostly resulted from a workshop scale input data from AOGCMs. For of sufficient quality to characterize held in Toulouse, France, 11- example, the positioning of the storm the uncertainties underlying regional 13 February 2009 (http://wcrp.ipsl. track in an AOGCM will propagate climate change projections. Such jussieu.fr/Workshops/Downscaling/ into the interior domain of a nested frameworks are available for global DirectionVenue.html) and subsequent RCM. Our imperfect knowledge models, such as the Atmospheric discussions. and model description of physical Model Intercomparison Project processes represent a critical source (AMIP) or the Coupled Model of uncertainty when performing Intercomparison Projects 1-3 (CMIP1- climate projections, which tends 3). The global modelling community Producing regional to increase as the scale of interest has benefited tremendously from climate projections and becomes increasingly finer. By such coordination activities in terms virtue of this uncertainty, different of process understanding, model associated uncertainties models will generally produce evaluation and generation of climate In this article, we use the term different responses to the same change projections. Conversely, most “regional” in a broad sense to climatic forcing (e.g. greenhouse-

176 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 gas concentration). This uncertainty, Sources of uncertainty in RCD-based which is referred to as “model configuration”, is one of the greatest Regional climate projections sources of uncertainty in climate projections and propagates directly RCD configuration AOGCM configuration from global model simulations to (multiple models) (multiple AOGCMs) all RCD techniques. It compounds with other sources of uncertainty, such as those due to greenhouse- gas emission and concentration Uncertainty in Emission/ scenarios, internal variability and Region non-linearities in the climate system regional climate concentration and, for the downscaling problem, projection scenarios choice of RCD method (Giorgi, 2005). Studies have indicated that the GCM configuration and scenario Internal variability RCD approach uncertainties represent the leading (multiple realizations) (Multiple RCD methods) sources of uncertainty in climate- change projections, particularly on longer, centennial, timescales. The choice of RCD technique can also be Figure 1 — Schematic depiction of the primary uncertainties in regional climate change important, whereas the uncertainty projection related to internal climate variability is mostly important on shorter timescales (e.g. for simulating the climate of 2020-2030) and for higher- 1 GHG emission scenarios in reproducing observed climate order statistics. 2 AOGCM configuration conditions or different climate states 3 AOGCM internal variability observed in the past. Therefore, the In order to provide useful information 4 RCD configuration process of producing climate-change for impact assessment studies, the 5 RCD internal variability projections cannot be disentangled uncertainties in regional climate 6 RCD method from the process of evaluating the change projections need to be 7 Region of interest performance of the models. What fully characterized and, where is thus required is an overarching possible, reduced. This requires Source 1 can be explored by framework that, on the one hand, the generation of ensembles of simulating different greenhouse- provides a benchmark for evaluating simulations exploring all the relevant gas emission scenarios; Sources 2 and possibly improving models and, uncertainty dimensions. The final and 4 by using different AOGCMs on the other, a set of experiments that goal of this process is the production and RCD models or, within the allow us to explore to the maximum of probabilistic climate-change same modelling system, different extent possible the contribution of information for climatic variables model configurations (e.g. physics the different sources of uncertainty. of interest in the form of probability parameters); Sources 3 and 5 by The CORDEX programme aims to density functions (PDFs). The width performing different realizations provide such a framework. of the PDF gives a measure of the of the same scenario each using uncertainty. The larger the ensemble, different initial conditions (most the better the uncertainty space can importantly for the slow components The CORDEX framework be sampled and explored. A full of the climate system, such as oceans exploration of the uncertainty space and vegetation conditions); Source CORDEX essentially has the two- is, however, a daunting task, since it 6 by using different RCD methods fold purpose to provide a framework requires the completion of a multi- (e.g. RCMs and SD models); and to evaluate and benchmark model dimensional matrix of experiments Source 7 by applying the RCD models performance (model evaluation whose number can quickly become to different regions. framework); and design a set of extremely large (Giorgi et al., 2008). experiments to produce climate Figure 1 summarizes the set of In addition, the reliability of climate- projections for use in impact and areas of uncertainty that need to change projections needs to be adaptation studies (climate projection be covered when producing regional assessed in view of the credibility framework). It is schematically climate- change projections based of the models. This, in turn, can be depicted in Figure 2 and described on RCD products: measured by the model performance in the following sections.

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 177 partly on the availability of ongoing CORDEX Phase I experiment design programmes.

Figure 3 shows five domains covering the entire African, Australian, South Model evaluation Climate projection American, North American and framework framework European continents. The latter three are essentially the same domains used in the projects CLARIS (www. claris-eu.org), NARCCAP (www. narccap.ucar.edu) and ENSEMBLES Multiple regions (initial focus on Africa) (ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and 50-km grid spacing respectively. A domain also includes Central America, together with the equatorial western Atlantic and Eastern Pacific regions, where current RCP4.5, RCP8.5 projections indicate large changes and ERA-interim BC possible effects on tropical cyclones. 1989-2007 The Asian continent is divided into Multiple AOGCMs three domains, one centred on the Indian monsoon, a second on East 1951-2100 Asia and a third targeting central Asia. 1981-2010, 2041-2070, 2011-2040 Pan-Arctic and Antarctic domains will Regional analysis also be included, based on experience Regional databanks derived from the respective polar modelling communities (not shown in the figure).

In order to allow wide participation, TFRDC, in consultation with the Figure 2 — Schematic depiction of the first phase CORDEX experiment set-up broader community, decided to make

Model domains and resolution CORDEX domains The choice of common RCD domains is a prerequisite for the development of the model evaluation and climate projection frameworks. The goal of CORDEX is to provide a framework accessible to a broad scientific community with maximum use of results. CORDEX domains therefore encompass the majority of land areas of the world. Figure 3 shows a first selection of common domains (currently still under discussion), where these should be interpreted as interior analysis domains, e.g. not including the lateral relaxation zone in RCMs. This selection is based partly on physical considerations (i.e. inclusion of processes important for different regions), partly Figure 3— Regional domains planned for the CORDEX experiments (some still under on considerations of resources discussion); also indicated are existing projects that make use of the corresponding needed for the simulations and domain.

178 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 the standard horizontal resolution for Observational datasets will need to are therefore also planned to be the the first phase CORDEX simulations be obtained/assembled for each highest priority CORDEX simulations to be ~50 km (or 0.5 degrees). Today, region for use in the model evaluation (Figure 3). many groups are running RCMs with process. This is a particularly delicate considerably higher grid spacing task as the evaluation process needs to Ideally, all regional model simulations than this (up to ~10 km) and they are be carried out at fine spatial scales for should span the period 1951-2100 in encouraged to explore the benefits of which suitable datasets are not always order to include a recent historical increased RCM resolution within the available. It will thus be important to period, plus the entire 21st century. CORDEX framework. Nevertheless, tap into local resources and expertise For many groups, however, it may it was felt that a standard resolution, to enhance current observational prove computationally too demanding allowing contribution by many datasets to the extent possible. to run CORDEX simulations for this groups, would increase the sense of entire time span. The 1951-2100 period community ownership of the CORDEX Climate projection has thus been divided into five 30-year project, while also increasing the time slices and participating groups size of any ensuing RCM scenario framework are requested to simulate time slices set for analysis and comparison in the following order of priority 1981- purposes. The climate projection framework 2010, 2041-2070, 2011-2040, 2071-2100, within CORDEX is based on the set of 1951-1980. The first of these (1981- Model evaluation framework new global model simulations planned 2010) represents the reference period in support of the IPCC Fifth Assessment for model evaluation and for the In order to evaluate the performance Report (referred to as CMIP5). This set calculation of climate changes. The of both DD and SD models, a set of so- of simulations includes a large number second priority time slice, covering a called “perfect boundary conditions” of experiments, ranging from new future time period, was selected as a experiments will be performed for the greenhouse-gas scenario simulations compromise between the needs of the selected domains. Such experiments for the 21st century, decadal prediction impact community in terms of future utilize analyses of observations to experiments, experiments including time horizon and the requirement produce fields to drive the RCD the carbon cycle and experiments to obtain a robust change signal. It models, for example as lateral aimed at investigating individual is requested that all participating and surface boundary conditions. feedback mechanisms (Taylor et al., groups at a minimum perform these Although still derived from (imperfect) 2009). two time slices to have a reasonable models, analyses of observations set of simulations for analysis and include information from a varied For its initial activities, CORDEX will intercomparison. set of observing systems (surface, focus on the scenario simulations. atmosphere and remotely sensed) Different from the scenario runs In the initial phase of CORDEX, it is and thus provide the best available employed in the fourth IPCC planned to simulate one realization conditions to drive RCD models. assessment cycle, which were for each RCP scenario selected, based on the SRES GHG emission using driving data from multiple The CORDEX framework will initially scenarios (IPCC, 2000), this next global models. In this way, CORDEX utilize the European Centre for generation of scenario simulations will explore the model configuration Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is based on so-called reference uncertainty but not the internal (ECMWF) ERA-Interim re-analysis concentration pathways (RCPs), variability one. As mentioned above, (Uppala et al., 2008), which covers i.e. prescribed greenhouse-gas this should not represent a major the period 1989-2007 and improves a concentration pathways throughout drawback, since previous experience number of problems found in previous the 21st century, corresponding has shown that the former is a much reanalysis products, particularly to different radiative forcing more important source of uncertainty related to the hydrological cycle stabilization levels by the year when looking at long temporal scales. in tropical regions. Various efforts 2100. Four RCPs have been selected, The sampling of internal variability are currently underway to update with stabilization levels at 2.9, 4.5, through multiple realizations is left reanalysis products in different 8.5 and 11.2 W/m2 (referred to as for the next phases of CORDEX. centres and these will be used when RCP2.9, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and RCP11.2, available. respectively). Within CMIP5, the Initial focus on Africa highest-priority global model For model evaluation, a set of simulations have been selected to The purpose of CORDEX is to produce a diagnostic teams will be formed for be the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, roughly framework valid for multiple domains each simulated region, whose task corresponding to the IPCC SRES across the world. Completing a large will be to design a set of benchmark emission scenarios B1 and A1B, set of multi-decadal simulations for regional metrics for model evaluation. respectively. The same scenarios the entire set of regions shown in

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 179 Figure 3 is, however, a formidable of large amounts of model inputs that format and standards for archival task that will require considerable it needs and the model outputs and and distribution of RCD output, that time and resources. In addition, it is intercomparisons that it will generate. may be located in various regions/ useful to test the framework for one There are two components. First, continents. This discussion is still region in order to assess its strengths fine temporal resolution (six-hourly) ongoing. and weaknesses before applying it AOGCM meteorological fields are worldwide. It was therefore decided required as boundary conditions for to select an initial priority region, the RCMs. These need to be stored in a Meeting the challenge: which we hope will allow a useful central databank for easy access to the matrix of RCD-based scenarios to be CORDEX modelling community and Given the complex and multi-faceted generated within the time frame of also in a format standardized across nature of the CORDEX effort, it the IPCC AR5. AOGCMs (almost certainly following is legitimate to ask whether it can the official CMIP5 format guidelines). actually be successful in delivering Africa was selected as the first target In addition, a fast-track procedure the regional climate analysis and region for several reasons. First, will need to be established in order information for adaptation, mitigation Africa is especially vulnerable to to transfer data from the AOGCM to and vulnerability assessments. Past climate change, both because of the the RCD groups. experience with similar projects (albeit dependence of many vital sectors on more limited in scope) can provide climate variability (e.g agriculture, Second, the output from the RCD some guidance in this regard. water management, health) and simulations will need to be stored because of the relatively low in a way that allows easy access to One good example is the European adaptive capacity of its economies. the end-user community, likely also project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Second, climate change may have requiring standardization of formats Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties significant impacts on temperature (possibly adhering to the CMIP5 for defining European Climate Change and precipitation patterns over Africa, format guidelines). This can prove Risks and Effects (http://prudence. which, in turn, can interact with other to be a formidable task in view of the dmi.dk/)). PRUDENCE was an end-to- environmental stressors such as large amounts of data produced by end project in which multiple global land-use change, desertification and fine-scale climate models. A proposal models were used to drive multiple aerosol emissions. Finally, to date, is being evaluated for creating a RCMs over a European domain based only very few simulations based on distributed network of regional on forcing from two greenhouse- RCD tools are available for Africa, so databanks all adhering to the same gas emission scenarios. The results this region will benefit particularly from the CORDEX framework, from both the research and application points of view. The domain shown 70 Baltic Sea catchment in a red frame in Figure 3 will therefore be the initial focus of the CORDEX 60 experiments. Elbe 50 It is fully appreciated that many Rhine downscaling groups will favour 40 Danube simulating their “home” domain first and these regional projections -10 0 10 20 30 40 Change in runoff (%) are also welcomed in the CORDEX 20.0% framework. The focus on Africa is 15.0% MPI mainly to encourage groups that can 10.0% DMI GKSS perform multiple regional climate 5.0% KNMI 0.0% CNRM projections, initially to prioritize ETH -5.0% HC Africa and obtain a relatively large -10.0% SMHI ensemble for this region in order to -15.0% UCM ITCP -20.0% enhance analysis and intercomparison Mean -25.0% HadAM3H of model results. -30.0% Baltic Sea cat. Danube Elbe Rhine Data management Figure 4 — Change in runoff (%, 2071-2100 minus 1961-2990, A2 scenario) calculated A key aspect of the CORDEX for four European drainage basins by the PRUDENCE multi-model RCM ensemble (from programme will be the management Hagemann and Jacob, 2007)

180 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 from the RCM simulations were then June-July-August precipitation used in a range of impact assessment studies ranging from hydrology and agriculture, to health and economy. In the development of the PRUDENCE strategy, communication between the climate modelling and impact communities was essential. In addition, the complementary project STARDEX (Statistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European regions (http://www. cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/stardex/) conducted similar experiments with different SD tools for intercomparison with the PRUDENCE RCM results.

The main PRUDENCE findings were presented in a special issue of Climatic Change in May 2007. Figure 4 (adapted from Hagemann and Jacob, 2007) shows an example of such results, where the output from an ensemble of RCM simulations was used in hydrological impact assessment. Surface runoff, an indicator of excess available water, was calculated for four European drainage basins (Baltic Sea, Figure 5 — Mean (1989-2005) June-July-August precipitation (mm/day) over Africa Danube, Elbe and Rhine rivers) in a as simulated by RegCM3 (Pal et al., 2007, top right panel) and RCA (Jones et al., 2004, set of reference (1961-1990) and future bottom right panel) RCMs driven by ERA-Interim lateral boundary conditions: the (2070-2100, A2 scenario) simulations simulated precipitation is compared with the GPCP observed precipitation climatology with 10 RCMs driven by a single global (left panels). The top panels also compare RegCM3 low level (850 hPa) average winds model (HadAM3H). (right panel) with ERA-Interim winds (left panel).

The 10 RCMs exhibit a consistent with the Africa domain within the can in fact narrow the uncertainty signal of reduced water availability ERA-Interim driven model evaluation emanating from global model over the Danube, Elbe and Rhine framework. Figure 5 shows examples simulations. These examples indicate basins, but a mixed signal over the of such experiments. More specifically, that a RCD-based framework can Baltic Sea catchment. These results are June-July-August precipitation from indeed provide valuable climate- attributed to the projected warming two models, RegCM3 from ICTP (Pal change information to guide future throughout Europe and corresponding et al., 2007) and RCA from the Rossby impact, adaptation and vulnerability decreased (increased) precipitation Centre (Jones et al., 2004), is compared assessments towards defining choices over central-south (north) Europe. This with GPCP observations (Gruber and for coping with climate variability and type of signal remains fairly consistent Levizzani, 2008). In addition, the top change across Africa. when different GCMs are used to drive panels also compare simulated and the same set of regional models. The observed (ERA-Interim) low-level type of information in Figure 4 is an winds from RegCM3. Both models Summary and important input to guiding future show a generally good agreement conclusions management and planning of water with observations for the selected resources at the European, national large domain. In this article, we present a new and even regional scales. framework for regional climate Some results based on SD studies modelling and downscaling, called The PRUDENCE strategy can be for Africa are also available in the CORDEX, with the two-fold aim of extended to CORDEX and the Africa literature such as Hewitson and developing a coordinated framework focus application will provide an Crane (2006), who use SD models for evaluating and improving RCD important initial test-bed. Some groups to downscale results from multiple techniques and producing a new have already started experimenting AOGCMs showing how this approach generation of RCD-based fine-scale

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 181 climate projections for identified experiment plans are adopted as much Products. A project of the World Climate Research Programme Global regions worldwide. We envision that as possible by participating groups so Energy and Water Cycle Experiment CORDEX will provide a framework for as to facilitate the intercomparison (GEWEX) radiation panel. WCRP better coordination of RCD-related and analysis of models and techniques Report No. 128, WMO/TD No. 1430, 50 pp. research and modelling activities and the assessment of uncertainties in within the regional climate modelling regional climate-change projections. Hagemann, S. and D. Jacob, 2007: Gradient and downscaling communities. Past Coordination of RCD activities is in climate change signal of European discharge predicted by a multi- experience has shown that projects essential for a better understanding model ensemble. Climatic Change, such as AMIP and CMIP are invaluable of RCD techniques and a more fruitful 81, 309-327. for the global modelling community and use of RCD-based products for societal CORDEX is essentially structured to play needs. Hewitson, B.C. and R.G. Crane, 1996: Climate downscaling: techniques a similar role for the RCD community. and application. Climate Research, 7, 85-95. A complementary role of CORDEX is Hewitson, B.C. and R.G. Crane, 2006: to bridge the existing gap between Consensus between GCM climate the climate modelling community and References change projections with empirical the end-users of climate information. downscaling: precipitation down­ scaling over South Africa. Inter­ This can be achieved by increasing Christensen, J.H., T.R. Carter, national Journal of Climatology, 26, communication across these two M. Rummukainen and G. Amanatidis, 1315-1337. communities and by targeting the 2007: Evaluating the performance and utility of regional climate models: the structure of the CORDEX experimental Huntingford, C. and J. Gash, 2005: Climate PRUDENCE project. Climatic Change, equity for all. Science, 309, 1789. and data-management activities to 81, 1-6. facilitate the use of common standards Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Cubasch, U. et al., 1995: regional climate and formats that will enhance more Change, 2000: Special Report on changes as simulated by time-slice Emission Scenarios (N. Nakicenovic effective and greater use of the experiments. Climatic Change, 31, et al. (Eds)). Cambridge University resulting climate information by the 273-304. Pres, New York, 599 pp. end-users. Deque, M. and J.P. Piedelievre, 1995: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate High resolution climate simulation Change, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Here we have described the first over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 11, Physical Science Basis. Contribution design and implementation phase of 321-339. of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report (S. Solomon et CORDEX, with an emphasis on the next Giorgi, F., 2006: Regional climate al. (Eds)). Cambridge University Press, two-four years (i.e. on the timescale of modeling: status and perspectives. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New IPCC AR5). It is envisaged, however, Journal de Physique, IV, 139, 101-118. York, NY, USA, 940 pp. that CORDEX will provide a longer- Giorgi, F. and L.O. Mearns, 1991: Jones, C.G., U. Willén, A. Ullerstig term framework for continued use Approaches to the simulation of and U. Hansson, 2004. The Rossby and support by the RCD community. regional climate change: a review. Centre regional atmospheric climate While the initial focus is on Africa, as Reviews of Geophysics, 29, 191–216. model Part I: Model climatology and performance for the present stated earlier, simulations over other Giorgi, F. and L.O. Mearns, 1999: Intro­ climate over Europe. Ambio 33:4-5, domains are welcomed. Similarly, duction to special section: regional 199-210. while the initial grid spacing is climate modeling revisited. Journal of Geophysical Research, 104, 50 km, to foster wide participation, Laprise, R. et al., 2008: Challenging some 6335- 6352. tenets of regional climate modelling. groups are encouraged to explore Meteorology and Atmospheric the benefits of increased model Giorgi, F., et al., 2001: Regional climate Physics, 100, 3-22. information—evaluation and pro­ resolution as their resources permit, jections. In: Climate Change 2001: Leung, L.R., L.O. Mearns, F. Giorgi and but also in a coordinated fashion with The Scientific Basis. Contribution R.L. Wilby, 2003: Regional climate other interested participants. While of Working Group I to the Third research: needs and opportunities. the initial focus of CORDEX is on Assessment Report of the Inter­ Bulletin of the American Meteoro­ governmental Panel on Climate logical Society, 82, 89-95. 21st century scenario simulations, we Change (J.T. Houghton et al., plan to extend the CORDEX framework Eds). Cambridge University Press, McGregor, J.L., 1997: Regional climate in the future to address the decadal Cambridge, United Kingdom and modeling. Meteorology and New York, NY, USA, 583-638. prediction problem also, as research Atmospheric Physics, 63, 105-117. in this area matures sufficiently Giorgi, F. et al., 2008: Exploring uncer­ Mearns, L.O. et al., 2003: Guidelines within the global climate modelling tainties in regional climate change: for use of climate scenarios The regional climate change hyper- community. developed from regional climate matrix framework. EOS, 89, 445-446. model experiments. TGCIA-IPCC report. http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac. Finally, we stress that it is important Gruber, A. and V. Levizzani, 2008: uk/guidelines/RCM6.Guidelines. that the common interior domains and Assessment of Global Precipitation October03.pdf, 38 pp.

182 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Meehl, G.A. et al., 2007: The WCRP CMIP3 the European Alps. Journal of Wilby, R.L. and T.M.L. Wigley, 2000: multimodel ensemble—a new era in Geophysical Research, 112, D04105. Precipitation predictors for downscaling: climate change research. Bulletin of observed and general circulation model the American Meteorological Society, Taylor, K.E., R.J. Stouffer and G.E. Meehl, relationships. International Journal of 88, 1383-1394. 2009: A summary of the CMIP5 Climatol., 20, 641–661, experiment design. https://cmip. Murphy, J., 1999: An evaluation of llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor_CMIP5_ Wilby, R.L. et al.. 2004: Guidelines for statistical and dynamical techniques design.pdf. Use of Climate Scenarios Developed for downscaling local climate. Journal from Statistical Downscaling of Climate, 12, 2256–2284. Uppala S., D. Dee, S. Kobayashi, Methods. IPCC Task Group on Data P. Berrisford and A. Simmons, 2008: and Scenario Support for Impact Pal, J.S. et al., 2007: Regional climate Towards a climate adapt assimilation and Climate Analysis (TGICA), http:// modeling for the developing world: the system: status update of ERA- ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/guidelines/ ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bulletin Interim, ECMWF Newsletter, 115, StatDown_Guide.pdf. of the American Meteorological 12-18. Society, 88, 1395-1409. Wang, Y. et al., 2004: Regional climate Acknowledgements Schmidli, J. et al., 2007: Statistical modeling: progress challenges and dynamical downscaling of and prospects. Journal of the precipitation: an evaluation and Meteorological Society of Japan, 82, The authors thank Stefan Hagemann for comparison of scenarios for 1599-1628. providing the material for Figure 4.

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 183 Climate information in decision- making in the Greater Horn of Africa: lessons and experiences Title by Laban Ogallo* and Christopher Oludhe*

Introduction Applications of products on the most pertinent socio-economic sectors in the given region and The Intergovernmental Authority from Regional Climate explore the ways of making use of on Development (IGAD) Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) the outlooks. The RCOF process also Prediction and Applications Centre includes a pre-RCOF capacity-building (ICPAC) is a specialized regional ICPAC disseminates a seasonal component for climate scientists to centre charged with the responsibility climate outlook at the beginning of improve understanding of the regional of climate monitoring, prediction, each season through an innovative climate processes; improvement of early warning and applications for process known as the Regional Climate models and prediction of regional the reduction of climate-related Outlook Forum (RCOF) that was climate; verification and assessment risks, including those associated pioneered in Africa. The RCOF process of prediction skills; addressing the with climate variability and change was initiated by WMO’s Climate benefits of RCOF products, etc. RCOF in support of national/regional Information and Prediction Services sessions are followed by the regular poverty alleviation and sustainable (CLIPS) project, in collaboration production and dissemination of 10- development strategies. with National Meteorological and day and monthly climate updates. It is Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and expected that RCOFs will be integral This is achieved through capacity- regional/international climate centres, components of the programmes of building of both meteorologists and among many other partners. the various institutions and relevant the users’ specific sectors; mapping of partners. climate hazards; climate monitoring, The RCOF process brings together prediction and early warning; national, regional and international ICPAC and partners have also under­ downscaling of climate products; climate experts, on an operational taken a number of pilot application development and application of the basis, to produce regional climate projects aimed at assessing and climate tools required by various outlooks based on input from communicating examples of the climate-sensitive sectors, among NMHSs, regional institutions, successful use of, and impediments others, in order to reduce sector- Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) to, seasonal climate prediction specific climate risks. This article and international climate institutions. products; the development of new presents some of the lessons learned This is done to catalyse linkages methodologies for better production, and experiences gathered from ICPAC among meteorologists, users’ dissemination, interpretation, use and since 1989 in the successful use of specific sectors, governments, non- evaluation of climate information and climate Information in the decision- governmental organizations and seasonal prediction products in the making process. universities, among others. In so reduction of climate-related risks; and doing, the forums ensure consistency the development of new applications in the access to, and interpretation of, tools that enable decision-makers to climate information. take advantage of seasonal forecast information. Through interaction with sectoral users, extension agencies and These have made an enormous * IGAD Climate and Applications Centre policy-makers, RCOFs assess the contribution to the improvement (ICPAC), PO Box 10304, Nairobi, Kenya likely implications of the outlooks of the quality of the seasonal

184 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 rainfall outlook; interaction of users 20 45 II 35 33 from various sectors; and overall I 33 33 awareness, education and improved 33 III 33 dissemination of climate information 33 and prediction products for early 35 IV 45 warning and disaster management. 20 20 45 Some successful examples are 35 V VI 35 45 highlighted in the following 20 sections. 35 45 20 VII

20 Key 45 VIII Figures on the map represent Generally food secure Moderately food insecure 35 probability of: Agriculture and food Highly food insecure Extremely food insecure A Above normal rainfall Famine 20 N Near normal rainfall security outlooks IX 45 No data Below normal rainfall 35 B Extremely food insecure Highly food insecure Seasonal regional agriculture and food Moderate food insecure security outlooks are now released regularly with Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) and Figure 1 — September – December 2008: climate (ICPAC) and food security (FEWS/NET) other partners (Figure 1), based on risks outlooks ROF products. These are developed through pre-RCOF capacity-building workshops by climate and agriculture/ adequately support the basic health information released by ICPAC food-security experts. Most areas care needs, including health insurance and the Kenya Meteorological where climate outlooks indicated of all members of the society; non- Department (KMD). drought risks had received below- preparedness and/or lack of integrated normal rainfall for two successive policies that adequately take the Over the last four years, Kenya seasons, exposing livelihoods to high available climate information into has not experienced a malaria levels of vulnerability and indicating consideration. outbreak. Previously, malaria high risks of food-insecurity levels. epidemics occurred annually Some of the regional governments Recent IPCC assessments have shown in the Kenyan highlands after responded to the projected food that Africa is the most vulnerable the long rain seasons. With deficits through advisories for continent to climate change. Other climate information from mixed cropping, shifting of planting studies have also shown that some ICPAC and KMD, the Ministry locations, changes in crop types diseases such as malaria are spreading has been able to prepare (e.g. from maize to millet) and early to areas that were in the past malaria- adequately to counter the food imports, among many other free, such as the relatively cool epidemics. Adequate larvicides, interventions. highlands. insecticides and antimalarials are procured and distributed in Human health outlooks ICPAC, NMHSs, the World Health time before the predicted climate Organization and other regional extremes occur. The health Vector-borne diseases are sensitive to partners now release regular regional sector in Kenya has therefore changes in meteorological parameters malaria outlook information based on benefited immensely from COF such as rainfall, temperature and RCOF products. Verifications of the products. humidity. Climate extremes such as released products are undertaken floods and droughts are common in during the following RCOF. As part Water availability outlooks the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). of the verification assessment, Alfred This makes GHA very vulnerable to Langat, Chief Public Health Officer Most of GHA may be classified as outbreaks of malaria, cholera, Rift of the Ministry of Health in Kenya, arid and semi-arid with an uneven Valley Fever and many other vector- had the following to say about the distribution of surface-water borne diseases. Other factors that successes of RCOF products: resources. The quality and quantity contribute to the high vulnerability of the available water resources have of the region to outbreaks of vector- Since 2001, when the health been linked to regional climatic factors. borne diseases include poverty; poor sector started participating Climate factors also have significant health facilities; a high population actively in Climate Outlook impacts on hydroelectric power, one of rate beyond the coping capacity of Forums (COFs), the Ministry of the major sources of energy for most available health facilities; deterior­ Health in Kenya has optimally GHA countries. Hydroelectric power ating and poor economies that cannot utilized periodical climate is highly vulnerable to fluctuations in

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 185 4 Most of the users of climate infor­ mation in GHA are illiterate and 3 living in rural areas where tribal/ clan languages are the only mode of communication. Women and children 2 often constitute the sections of the society most affected by climate 1 hazards and need to be appropriately targeted for disseminating early Inflow anomaly 0 warning information on climate risks.

-1 MasOND-OBS MasOND-PRED ICPAC, NMHSs and the media have -2 developed partnerships to ensure that climate information is suitably 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 downscaled, translated into local lan­ Year guages and disseminated in a timely Figure 2 — Masinga Dam and the comparison between observed and predicted October- fashion to enable the communities to November-December (OND) inflow anomaly (source: ICPAC) develop community-specific disaster risk reduction strategies, including integration of indigenous knowledge rainfall. Droughts lead to low water regularly include capacity-building (see Figure 3). levels in the dams for electrical workshops on streamflow forecasting power generation, resulting in huge that also address expected risks economic losses, loss of jobs and to regional hydroelectric power Challenges negative economic development. On generation. Figure 3 gives an example the other hand, too much rainfall can of a simple model that is being Several challenges remain to lead to floods that pose threats of dam used by ICPAC, KMD and the Kenya achieving the successful use of climate breakages and siltation, etc. Electricity Generation Company to information in the decision-making provide the company with regular process in Africa. These include: Some efforts have been made in seasonal climate risk information, the region to reduce climate risks based on RCOF products. • Poor observation networks and associated with the negative impacts databases that limit not only the of extreme climate events on water Enhanced dissemination accuracy but also the availability and hydroelectric power resources of data and products that are through good understanding of the of climate early critical for the community-level climate patterns of the previous warning information decision-making process; events and their linkages with the regional hydrological cycle; enhanced Timely availability of climate infor­ • Limited understanding of climate monitoring; early warning; and mation in user-friendly language is variability and change, including effective and timely disseminated critical to the effective application extremes, at regional and local early warnings. Pre-COF sessions of climate products and information. levels;

Figure 4 — Dissemination of seasonal climate outlook through local students and women’s groups

186 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 • Many climate risks have direct products, particularly on the nology commonly presented by impacts on poverty alleviation probabilistic nature of most climate scientists; and sustainable development climate advisories; challenges in the region, yet little • Limited interdisciplinary research research has been done in these • Non-consideration of cost- that includes hazards, impacts, areas. Integrated and sector- benefit assessments in the use vulnerability mapping, prediction specific monitoring, prediction of available climate information and early warning; and early warning systems are and prediction products; constrained by lack of capacity; • Limited human, as well as • Weak monitoring, modelling, infrastructure, resources. • Lack of education and awareness prediction and early warning regarding linkages among climate systems; variability/change challenges, environmental resources • Lack of effective institutional availability/renewability; and partnerships of NMHSs socio-economic well-being; with national, regional and international users for integrated • Lack of and/or non-implementation decision-making; of relevant policies; • Most users in the region are • Difficulty in the understanding illiterate and still unable to and use of available climate interpret/understand the termi­

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 187 Climate risk management in western South America: implementing a successful information system Title by Rodney Martínez Güingla* and Affonso Mascarenhas*

Introduction Conceptual elements • Construction of climate-risk maps applied to development Six years after opening, in January of a regional early sectors; 2003, the International Centre on warning system “El Niño” Research (CIIFEN) has • Building information systems; succeeded in consolidating its The United Nations International presence in Central and South America Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction • Establishing mechanisms to by providing climate information (ISDR) gave a clear definition of ensure that governments respond services designed principally for early warning systems in 2009. The to early climate warnings and take users and decision-makers. backbone of the concept of CIIFEN’s action (Figure 1). operation is what we regard as a slightly One of CIIFEN’s most significant modified early-warning scheme based Based on our vision, we explain the challenges in its short life, on four main themes: complex path from early climate however, has been to demonstrate warning to risk management. When this through practical experience how • Development of climate climate information actually provokes to improve the management of prediction; a response from governments, it takes climate information as a central pillar of genuinely people-centred early-warning systems. CIIFEN’s The CIIFEN concept: An early warning mission focuses on promoting and regional system for ENSO, variability 1. Improving the and climate change implementing fundamental and hazard forecast applied research projects to improve understanding of El Niño/La Niña and 3. Optimize the information climate variability and change in order systems to help improve early warning on a Early warning regional scale and reduce the social and economic of climate impacts. 4. Connect early warning systems El Niño/La Niña with government level for planning sectoral action and response This article offers a brief summary Torrential precipitations 2. Generate sectoral risk of CIIFEN’s contributions to the scenarios management of climate risk in Drought western South America and how its Extreme temperatures One of the cornerstones of an activities have developed in line with integral system of early warning is its mandate and future plans for the Climate change INFORMATION MANAGEMENT The communication component is region. the “last mile” to accomplish and build on real early warning systems centred on people.

1 International Centre on Research “El Niño” (CIIFEN) Figure 1 — Conceptual elements of CIIFEN operations, Martínez (2004)

188 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster From early warning to risk management ... Risk Reduction).

Early warning Building a climate information system Government Sustainable response development for agroclimatic risk

Risk transference management in the Andean countries Politic Sectoral planning instruments Reduction of Land use planning socio-economic This project was launched in June impacts Decentralization 2007 and is, by its nature and structure, one of the main exercises Local capacities of regional scope focused on climate strengthening risk management. Its objective was to help reduce the socio-economic impact of the action of the climate on farming activity in the countries of the Andean region by setting up a climate information system as a Regional Figure 2 — Conceptual elements of early warning to risk management systems, Martínez Public Good, focusing on the needs (2004) of farmers, supporting decision- making and risk management in the agricultural sector. the form of policy instruments which Early warning system may be implemented as a variety of The project had the following mechanisms of differing complexities: The set of capacities needed to components: regional planning, decentralization, generate and disseminate timely and risk transfer and environmental man­ meaningful warning information to • System for processing data and agement, among others. National enable individuals, communities and climate information; governments can also strengthen the organizations threatened by a hazard • Information dissemination capacities of National Meteorological to prepare and to act appropriately system; and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and in sufficient time to reduce the • Institutional strengthening. and research centres, constantly possibility of harm or loss. This improving the computing resources definition encompasses the range of Regional climate database and building personnel capacities so factors necessary to achieve effective that they can at last lead their countries responses to warnings. for western South America along a path of truly sustainable development (Figure 2). A people-centred early warning Under the first component, in system necessarily comprises four the National Meteorological and It is not sufficient, however, to have key elements: Hydrological Service of the six a conceptual scheme and merely talk countries of western South America, about it. CIIFEN had to validate this • Knowledge of the risks; the project undertook a complex scheme in the field by means of a • Monitoring, analysis and process of recovery and conversion pilot project. CIIFEN had this great forecasting of the hazards; of data from meteorological stations opportunity when the Inter-American • Communication or dissemination for digitizing and quality-control Development Bank approved, in the of alerts and warnings; and processing. At the same time, it category Regional Public Goods, the • Local capabilities to respond to worked on the design of a regional project “Climate information applied the warnings received. climate database that culminated in to agricultural risk management in the the input of the 3 879 035 records Andean countries”, which involved The expression “end-to-end warning of precipitation and maximum the National Meteorological and system” is also used to emphasize and minimum temperature from Hydrological Services of Bolivia, that warning systems need to span all 169 meteorological stations in the Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and steps from hazard detection through region. A digital interface was built Venezuela, coordinated by CIIFEN. to community response (source: for displaying historical data (http://

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 189 worked to validate forecasts and, after a long process, the six NMHSs were fully capable of generating seasonal forecasts and, in some cases, monthly and bi-monthly ones. With some differences, over the lifetime of the project, these statistical forecasts reached the operational phase in all the countries, in most cases providing forecasts for a hitherto unavailable time horizon. For numeric modelling we used the climate mode of the MM5 and WRF models (see box below). On this component, too, we worked closely with the NMHSs and held two regional training workshops on numerical modelling. The numerical experiments are continuing and are now operational in at least three countries (Figure 4).

Decision-support systems

One of the most important pillars of CIIFEN initiatives is decision- support tools. For the agricultural Figure 3 — Regional climate database for western South America: sector in particular, we designed http://vac.ciifen-int.org The MM5 and vac.ciifen-int.org) with daily data to match the conditions in each from 1960 to the present. This major country. This particular activity was WRF models step forward in regional interchange a major challenge for CIIFEN and the and integration of climate data is a project team on account of the major first, and heralds a new chapter in imbalances between the countries The MM5 is a limited-area, non- cooperation between meteorological taking part in the project in this hydrostatic, terrain-following services in the region. The regional area. sigma-coordinate model designed climate database is run and maintained to simulate or predict mesoscale by CIIFEN and an agreement for its Despite the various considerable atmospheric circulation (http:// operation was approved and signed constraints on implementation, we www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/). by the NMHSs of the six countries were able to provide workstations and CIIFEN (Figure 3). for the countries and work was carried out on two fronts at the same The Weather Research and Statistical and time. For statistical modelling, we Forecasting (WRF) Model is dynamic modelling used the Climate Predictability Tool. a next-generation mesoscale This is a world-renowned tool for numerical weather prediction The project made a considerable statistical downscaling developed system designed to serve both effort to improve climate forecasting by the International Research operational forecasting and capabilities (1-3 months) in the six Institute for climate and society (IRI). atmospheric research needs for countries. Since one of the pillars of Regional workshops were combined a broad spectrum of applications a climate information system must with experts accompanying each across scales ranging from metres be to base forecasts on reliable country’s teams. The valuable to thousands of kilometres (http:// information to reduce subjectivity experience of the forecasting teams www.wrf-model.org/index.php). and increase robustness, it was based was organized in terms of selection on statistical tools and numerical and use of both atmospheric and models designed, as far as possible, oceanic prediction parameters. We

190 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Figure 4 — Operational We obtained support from mobile seasonal forecast telephone companies to send climate CAM-WRF forecast produced by IDEAM, warning messages free of charge in precipitation anomaly Colombia, for Ecuador to a large network of users. December, 2008 December 2008 Similarly, we succeeded in including products generated by some of the NMHSs in magazines circulated widely in the farming sector at no cost to the producers. We made important alliances with community radio stations, even succeeding in broadcasting climate bulletins in native languages. Other important achievements included demonstrating the feasibility of setting up effective climate information systems that meet the needs of the most remote Far below normal (0-30%) users (Figure 6). Moderate below normal (30-60%) Slightly below normal (60-90%) Normal (90-100%) We carried out an assessment of user Slightly above normal (110-140%) Moderate above normal (140-170%) perception of the climate information Far above normal (>170%) in the pilot areas in all six countries. Access to, understanding and use of, the information improved from 30- a geographical information in each NMHS. Finally, the system 35 per cent of the target population system representing spatially the can generate maps that are updated at the start of the project to 60- vulnerability of a number of selected with each new forecast to provide 65 per cent by the end. One of the crops for each country in which the three-month risk scenarios, available main indicators of the success of project was implemented, including every two months or monthly. Users this initiative was the response of multiple layers of information that can display the vulnerability layer, the national or local authorities. can be used to define levels of the forecast and also the associated During the final phase of the project, exposure to climate and levels of risk for the coming season using government funding was given to resilience based especially on social, a very simple colour scale on the replicate the initiative in other areas economic, political and institutional map. The system was designed to and improve the installed capacity. parameters. Among other factors, be updated via the Website (http:// The information system was provided the territory is characterized in terms ac.ciifen-int.org/sig-agroclimatico/ for advanced or technical users and of land use, water-retention capacity, (Figure 5). for decision-makers in business and topography and texture. government over the Internet, and the products are easy to use and In the case of crops, the phenological Community information understand. However, the system cycles and their various climate was also provided for end-users requirements were estimated on systems through alternative methods and the basis of historical information more complex forms, such as radio, and information obtained in the field. The project invested a major effort local communications systems, Likewise, for crops, we considered to work on the most critical phase agricultural networks or community sensitivity to pests and diseases of the process of disseminating the associations. Both communities more related to the climate. The information, reaching end-users provided their points of view on the layers of information for estimating without further interference or inter­ information and the presentation vulnerability were weighted accord­ mediaries. To achieve this, once all format was altered several times to ing to the region and the crop and the technological systems reached satisfy demand as far as possible. then crossed with dynamic layers the operational phase, we worked derived from forecasts of seasonal intensively in the selected areas of The effectiveness system is now rainfall, maximum and minimum each country to map players, forge measured through demand. Users temperatures, to produce dynamic alliances and contact and connect with access to e-mail can join the maps of agroclimatic risk by crop. We with the media. A special effort system and the number of users validated the system in each country was made to involve the private increased by no less than 80 per cent and worked closely with the experts sector, which was quite successful. in two years. Meteorological services

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 191 Figure 5 — Climate risk maps on western South America: http://ac.ciifen-int.org/sig-agroclimatico/

192 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Alliance with a mobile Alliances signed with Principal results operator company key stakeholders of the climate (Telefónica Movistar) Movistar and Message Plus information system agreed to assign free Private sector messages to a group of for western South INAMHI inform: intense 1 000 users previously precipitation over central identified in areas prone zone of Manabi for the America. to flooding. next 6 hours. WARNING Installation of HF Radio Equipment for alternate emergency communications

Installation of radio Esmeraldas • The first regional climate database equipment for 10 locations of to be implemented in western intervention area in Pachaqamasa radio (El Alto, Bolivia) Chone South America; Ecuador. Divided interview about climate information between the offices use in Aymará native language of INAMHI Babahoyo Mobile phone compagny and COEs • Capabilities enhanced by the appli­ Machala cation of statistical and dynamic downscaling in the region; (a) • Application of the operational dynamic of climate risk maps for Information flow with the media Including private sector agriculture in the region;

Chile: Region V • Implementation of self-sustainable October 2008 community climate information networks, with support from the authorities for the data networks, media and private sector;

• Intense capacity-building in the region, closely linked to the Venezuela: Maracay September 2008 implementation system;

• Application of regional agree­ ments between the region’s NMHSs and the networks; (b) Ecuador: Los Ríos Bolivia: El Alto Peru, August 2008 • Positive political response by March 2008 December 2008 the local and national authorities Figure 6— (a) climate dissemination systems in western South America; with the system that will serve (b) alliances with local media and private sector to disseminate climate information to replicate the initiative in other areas and for other crops with national funding. have a long list of main users of the the specific social and cultural information that they disseminate features of the communities in each regularly. The list is also constantly country. CIIFEN contributions expanding to include users receiving the information by radio, the media Another indicator of success related to the Bulletin and mobile phones (the mass media to alliances for cooperating with of the American in the Andean region). the private sector. Through formal Meteorological Society: agreements with the NMHSs, Leaders of communities in various additional long-term support was State of the Climate countries have been trained to use guaranteed through the publication climate information. Educational of seasonal climate forecasts and At the 14th session of the WMO material has been prepared to other data free of charge for training Commission for Climatology (CCL- train trainers in the use of climate purposes in the communities linked XIV), in Beijing in November 2005, information and to take advantage to these industries, including specific Recommendation 5.5.3 was adopted, of NMHS information. This material support measures. requesting WMO to ensure that was designed taking account of editions of the Bulletin of the American

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 193 State of the climate in South America in 2007 WCSA-COF has now become the platform for NMHSs to improve the dialogue with end-users in the various sectors and to analyse and improve the seasonal forecasting operations in the region. The interface mechanism between climate information providers and users in the communities also allows a better understanding between users and encourages better adoption by them, thereby reducing adverse results.

The seasonal forecast for the region is the outcome of a monthly Annual mean temperature anomaly (°C) 2007- Annual precipitation anomalies (% normal) debate and consensus between all South America. South America. Sources: National Meteorological Service from: Sources: National Meteorological Service from: the NMHSs. All members share a Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela, CPTEC (Brazil) Uruguay, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela, CPTEC (Brazil) common methodology involving and NCDC/GHCN (USA) and NCDC/GHCN (USA) a number of parameters which Reference period 1961-1990 Reference period 1961-1990 Data compilation and processing: CIIFEN Data compilation and processing: CIIFEN have been agreed and are being improved year after year. Special efforts are now being made to apply Figure 7 — Regional anomalies maps published in South America chapter from BAMS a verification technique. Once a State of the Climate 2005 consensus is achieved, the forecast is sent out by e-mail to more than 15 000 users throughout Central Meteorological Society (BAMS) would basic historical assessment and and South America and a few other strive for a regional balance in terms analysis data that is highly relevant contacts in other continents. The of coverage and greater involvement for forecasting and estimating COFs have provided the NMHSs of the National Meteorological and indices. and CIIFEN with a substantial legacy Hydrological Services. CIIFEN took of experience and lessons learned on this responsibility and, from that Western Coast of South regarding user profiles, expectations year, coordinated an exercise that and concerns, that has helped to was both unprecedented and fruitful America Climate Outlook understand the climate information for generating the contribution of Forum (WCSA-COF) and the complex process of WMO Regional Association III (South managing it at regional and national America) to the annual BAMS State Since 2003, CIIFEN, under the levels as the fundamental bases for of the Climate publication. auspices of WMO, has coordinated early warning and risk-management the Western Coast of South America systems. Since 2006, with the active Climate Outlook Forum (WCSA-COF), participation of the Region’s NMHSs with the participation of the National and coordination by CIIFEN, we Meteorological and Hydrological succeeded not only in incorporating Services of Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, CIIFEN information a large number of the Region’s Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela, So products stations in the analysis (up from 516 far, seven forums have been held in in 2005 to more than 900 in 2009) but Guayaquil, Ecuador (2002, 2003, 2004); CIIFEN maintains an operational also increased participation in this Santiago de Chile (2005); Armenia, information system serving a important publication by authors Colombia (2006); La Paz, Bolivia (2007); large number of users (more than from various South American and Caracas, Venezuela (2008). The 15 000) registered by means of a countries. To date, our ever- next one will be held in Cuzco, Peru, subscription system in Central and increasing contributions have been in the last quarter of 2009. This event South America, Europe and Asia. Of published in the BAMS State of the was originally intended to produce visits to the CIIFEN products section, Climate 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 by consensus the seasonal climate 77 per cent come from Central and (Figure 7). Assembling and sharing outlook for the region, but it has now South America, 19.4 per cent from climate information are other useful become a forum for intense dialogue Europe, the USA and Canada, and functions of information services and interaction between users in the the remaining 3.6 per cent from Asia, as they allows the conversion of member countries. Africa and other regions.

194 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 CIIFEN’s operational products Capacity-building courses (Figure 8) are:

• Regional workshop for South • Regional workshop on advanced • Sea-surface temperature images America on managing and numerical modelling, 2008 for the eastern Pacific (weekly); rescuing climate data, 2003 (6 countries) (15 countries) • CIIFEN bulletin on the state of El • Ibero-American workshop on Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), • Regional workshop for South seasonal forecasting, 2008 focusing on impacts in Central America on climate applications (20 countries) and South America (monthly); in agriculture, 2003 (16 countries) • Regional workshop on • Seasonal forecast for western • Regional workshop for South processing climate data, 2008 South America (monthly); America on climate applications (6 countries) in the health sector, 2004 • Oceanographic analysis of the (14 countries) • Regional Climate Outlook Forums eastern Pacific (monthly) III, IV, V, VI, VII and VIII, 2003, • Regional workshop on regional 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008 ocean and climate modelling, (6 countries) Climate change, 2004 (8 countries). risk management • More than 35 local workshops • Alexander Von Humboldt conducted at community and adaptation international conference: The El level throughout Bolivia, Chile Climate change is a regular item Niño phenomenon and its global Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and on the CIIFEN agenda. From the impact, 2005 (75 countries, Venezuela conceptual point of view, the agendas 350 participants). of climate change, risk management • Regional course on statistical and environmental management • International workshop: El Niño modelling, Maracay, Venezuela, are not necessarily parallel or inde­ and its impact on the Pacific 2007 pendent. The common ground is basin, 2005 (23 countries) where the population interacts with • Regional course on dynamic the ecosystems and goes about its • Ibero-American workshop modelling I, Lima, Peru, 2007 business. Climate variability is a on climate change and risk constant factor that is being affected management, 2006 (21 countries) • Regional course on mapping by climate change. But, in practice, agroclimatic risk, Guayaquil, people alter the land, degrading the • Regional workshop: ENSO and Ecuador, 2008 ecosystems and creating the risk its social and economic impacts, of increased social, economic and 2006 (14 countries). • Regional course on dynamic environmental vulnerability. modelling II, Guayaquil, Ecuador, • Regional workshop on climate- 2008 CIIFEN’s work focuses on risk change indices and indicators, management for the local climate as 2006 (6 countries) • Course on climate data analysis the main tool for devising strategies and processing, Maracay, to adapt at local level because this • Regional workshop on statistical Venezuela, 2008 is the best stage to understand and modelling, 2007 (6 countries) tackle environmental, social and • Training courses for experts in cultural aspects. Working at local • Regional workshop on dynamic the region at IRI, 2007, 2008 level requires close contact with the modelling, 2007 (6 countries) authorities and the community, and this does not require scenarios for • Regional workshop on 80 or 100 years. CIIFEN is promoting agricultural climate risk mapping, the use of RClimDex (a software 2008 (6 countries) package for indices calculation, see http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/ software.shtml) to establish trends of indicators and indices of climate change on much shorter timescales with a better local approximation.

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 195 Final comments

After a difficult path towards consolidation, CIIFEN is celebrating its sixth anniversary in a phase of positive development and a strong position in western South America. There is a growing number of ongoing projects and interaction with the region’s institutions, as well as the number of members. Many challenges in prospect that motivate us in our work and enable us to believe that our work on climate applications, user interface, climate risk management and feasible adaptation have been positive and well received by all institutions, organizations and donors. Over CIIFEN’s short life we have much to share and much more to offer to benefit the region, so the future looks increasingly promising.

Acknowledgements Figure 8 — CIIFEN´s operational products To Alexandra Rivadeneira, Abigail There is also a need to understand Strengthening Alvarado and Juan José Nieto from the relationships between climate, capabilities CIIFEN Information Systems Unit for their territory and humans that can partly contribution to this article. explain future climate vulnerability. In all its projects, CIIFEN has worked CIIFEN considers that climate risk hard to strengthen capabilities and Bibliography and references management can be adapted in set up regional working groups. In the present and resilience achieved recent years, as part of our projects, IADB Regional Public Goods Portal gradually. we have devised many training http://www.iadb.org/projects/Project. cfm?language=Spanish&PROJECT= courses in line with a whole strategy RG-T1209 CIIFEN has taken part in two projects for strengthening capabilities for the IRI: Climate Predictability Tool related to climate change, the first provision of climate services (see box http://iri.columbia.edu/outreach/ on the determination of indices of on previous page). software/ Supplement to State of the Climate climate change indicators for the coast in 2005: K.A. Shein, Bulletin of the of Ecuador and an initial report of As a result, more than 150 experts American Meteorological Society, these results with possible trends in in the region have been trained, and Volume 87, Issue 6 (June 2006), 68-71. land use in the area from previously three active networks or working Supplement to State of the Climate determined climate-risk zones; the groups have been consolidated: in 2006: A. Arguez, Bulletin of the work took place in close coordination American Meteorological Society, Volume 88, Issue 6 (June 2007), with the National Meteorological and • Regional numerical modelling 90–93. Hydrological Institute of Ecuador. group; RClimdex • Regional seasonal forecasting http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/ A second experience for CIIFEN was group; software.shtml State of the Climate in 2007: D.H. Levinson its participation in the analysis of • Regional climate-change and J. H. Lawrimore, Bulletin of the the vulnerability to climate change indicators group. American Meteorological Society, of the biodiversity and population of Volume 89, Issue 7 (July 2008), 124–129 the Galapagos Islands. This project Worthy of a special mention is the UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk was supported by Conservation recent Ibero-American workshop on Reduction (2009) International and the World Wildlife seasonal forecasting attended by 52 http://www.unisdr.org/eng/library/ UNISDR-terminology-2009-eng.pdf Fund and allowed the conceptual participants from 19 countries and, framework described above to be which is to be held again in the second applied to a specific case. half of 2009, in Guayaquil, Ecuador.

196 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Water and climate: issues, examples and potential in the context of hydrological prediction by Ann Calver*

Introduction

The interplay between hydrological and climatological information and analyses offers a maturing capability to assess expected terrestrial water regimes. This article is concerned with hydrological aspects of this water-climate linkage. It considers the major areas of information exchange between the two domains that enhance the capabilities of both. It then discusses capabilities of hydrological analyses in assessing impacts of climate conditions, describing some specific examples in flood and water resource contexts to illustrate both potentials and difficulties associated possible climate-induced changes In this article, the time base in the with such analyses. The final section of in water regimes and availability. consideration of climate (as opposed the article deals with future challenges The considerations addressed in the to meteorology) is taken to be greater to be met in this area of prediction article are important not only in the than seasonal, with the emphasis on in the terrestrial phase of the water light of any man-induced changes periods of years and decades: it is of cycle. to the climate system but to the course the case that linkages between management of terrestrial water the atmospheric and terrestrial water The use of hydrological analyses under the ubiquitous conditions domains also enhance shorter-term and modelling to explore climate of natural variability of the climate predictions, albeit used in a somewhat impacts is by no means a new field of system. different manner. The term hydrology investigation, nor is the need for data is used in the sense of covering the exchange between atmospheric and The question of climatic impact on land phase of the water cycle (natural Earth sciences a new requirement. the hydrological domain is an area and managed): the interaction of the It is, however, the case that there of widespread concern, investigation marine environment with the climate is currently a compelling impetus and publication, both of global scale system is beyond the scope of this in these activities because of and overview information and of many article, as are issues of water quality, perceived improvement in technical academic articles addressing specific as opposed to water quantity. The developments in predictive tools points of research. Useful examples aim of the article is to discuss the and, in many regions of the world, of wide scale work, but by no means nature and direction of some technical increased awareness and concern of the only sources, include Bates et al. developments, together with their (2008); Dialogue on Water and Climate potential and drawbacks, and to look at * Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, (2003); European Commission (2005); some example applications addressing Wallingford, Oxon, United Kingdom and WMO (2009). major strands, accompanying this with

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 197 comment on key research aspects Figure 1 shows the atmosphere/ The key outputs from climate required to tackle the provision of land surface interface of the United models of benefit to hydrologists are appropriate information. Kingdom Met Office Unified Model precipitation and temperature fields at (MetUM) (see, for example, Cullen, a range of time and space scales. With, 1993; Essery et al., 2003) where the often, further transformation to finer linkages and feedbacks across the scales, this information, combined Information flows atmospheric/terrestrial boundary with other regional and/or catchment between climate and are highlighted. MetUM has been data, facilitates statistical and/or designed to allow configurations for physically based analyses of the water domains use in weather forecasting and climate hydrological system. The availability This section gives a succinct overview predictions: DePreSys, for example, of past hydrological records allows of the main aspects of information deals with decadal predictions; PRECIS methods to be tested for performance which the hydrological practitioner serves as a regional climate model; before being used in predictive mode and researcher benefit from receiving and HadGEM as a global climate with future climate drivers. Whilst from the climatological community, model predicting up to a century concern is sometimes raised that together with the information which ahead. MetUM formulations are used conditions of the future may be hydrologists can usefully provide to in a number of countries in addition outside the range of those tested in enhance climatological science. It is to the United Kingdom, including the past, to do the latter testing is a interesting to note that hydrology-to- Australia, India, the Republic of Korea, wise step if at all feasible. climatology data exchanges are used New Zealand, Norway and South primarily to enhance climate modelling Africa. It is important to note that, Good precipitation predictions over capability, whilst climatology-to- whilst some hydrological modelling space and time are plainly an essential hydrology information flow, as well is carried out within systems coupled requirement, as also are temperature as enhancing predictive hydrology, to atmospheric models, arguably and wind fields for determining snow also plays a more direct part in policy a greater amount is undertaken in and ice conditions and evaporation. and management decision-making, uncoupled mode with atmospheric For some risks, notably flooding, reflecting the scope in the land phase drivers. there is a compelling need for reliable of the hydrological cycle to effect rainfall extremes, including those at hazard-reducing action.

T q The key aspects of water-related rainfall total snowfall a a information which benefit climate evaporation scientists are the topographic canopy sublimation ra configuration of the region of concern, evaporation including that of major water bodies, canopy lying the character of soil and aquifer classes T* water soil evaporation snow and their distributions, and land & transpiration uses and management, both urban rs and rural. The more highly dynamic throughfall snowmelt aspects are river and water body levels and soil and aquifer water contents, surface runoff together with surface temperatures M1 TS1 M T and state of vegetation growth. 2 phase S2 The scale of information provision changes M3 TS3 needs to be made compatible with the operating resolution of global thermal Darcian flow M T diffusion (or general atmospheric) circulation 4 properties S4 models (GCMs), commonly around 150-300 km, and with regional climate models (RCMs) at around free drainage zero heat flux 25-50 km. Data rescue and infilling are of importance, as well as scale Figure 1 — Schematic diagram of the structure of the atmosphere/land surface interface transformations. Remotely sensed of the UK Met Office Unified Model.1 M … M4 soil moisture in each of four soil layers; data are increasingly looked to in Ts1 … Ts4 soil temperature in these layers; rs stomatal or surface resistance; providing good spatial coverage, ra atmospheric resistance; T* surface temperature; Ta atmospheric temperature; and albeit sometimes of useful rather qa atmospheric specific humidity (diagram reproduced with the permission of the UK than ideal-choice variables. Met Office).

198 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 short durations: this is the case for catchments, lateral water transfers and With much work undertaken in long-term frequency quantification rapidly responding flood generation exploring effects of climate variability as well as for (near-) real-time in that with accompanying representation of and change on aspects of the short-term intensities can be of crucial inundation levels. In short, to explore hydrological environment, it is not hydrological importance. The rate aspects of hydrological response to a straightforward matter to choose and direction of any climatic trend climate drivers, there are numerous which specific examples to discuss. are valuable indicators, even where methodologies which are not Whilst recognizing opinions may differ specific numerical predictions are not necessarily intimately coupled with on the most apposite, a selection of possible: they are especially valuable climate model systems: a large array work is commented upon below, if the cause of the trend is reliably of generic models is available, some dealing with water deficit and water identifiable. The scientific uncertainty models encapsulated in software excess, which serves to demonstrate around climate projections is being packages, and with a variety of points of interest and relevance quantified: of value to the practitioner code access levels. Methods range beyond the individual application is an expression of the reliability of from simple parameter-sparse in terms of generic capabilities and climate projections. To effect good formulations to fully coupled surface shortcomings. hydrological projections, further and groundwater systems of partial data in addition to those of climate differential equations solved by Broad-scale flood risk are plainly required, notably other numerical schemes and offering three- environmental information and that dimensional spatial variability. Whilst An investigation into flood risk in the from social and economic sciences, the more detailed formulations plainly United Kingdom was undertaken in including adaptation possibilities. offer more hydrological variables and 2002-2004 by a range of scientists This, in turn, paves the way for more spatial definition, it is to be working with the Government’s (then) exploration, not only of water quantity, noted that complex representations Department of Trade and Industry’s considered here, but also of water are not always the most appropriate, “Foresight” team looking in particular quality, environmental quality and particularly when data are sparse. at likely conditions under the climate food and health issues. Statistical analyses of hydrological predictions for the 2030-2100 period data complement these modelling in order to inform policy-making. The approaches. Hydrological futures cross-government socio-economic Hydrological analyses are frequently evaluated through the “futures scenarios” (Department of of climate effects consideration of expected frequency Trade and Industry, 2002), shown in distributions relating to particular Figure 2, were taken to represent an periods as well as of transient time encapsulated range of development Hydrological analysis encompasses series. possibilities. These have a fair degree many types of approaches, occasioned by a domain rich in processes and in spatial and temporal variability, by the range of levels of available data, and by the variety of requirements driving the analysis. The hydrological domain is a highly multivariate system in which it is difficult to unravel the separate effects of climate and other factors that affect the terrestrial water regime. Figure 2 — Socio- While atmospheric and land surface economic futures processes are, to varying degrees, scenarios, coupled in global and regional climate with system modelling, the detail of hydrological of governance regimes is frequently as well, and represented on in many cases better, served by the vertical axis essentially hydrological models, and social values driven by time series of climatic indicated on the inputs, particularly precipitation horizontal axis. and temperature. The latter models (figure reproduced have in many cases developed a with permission, maturity which can be capitalized on from UK Floods in terms, for example, of formulations Foresight report for subregional structural detail of (Evans et al., 2004)).

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 199 of generic applicability in wider National enterprise 2080s Local stewardship 2080s (700 ppm) (550 ppm) regions (though the “conventional development” is arguably less transferable), covering level of governance and range of social aspirations/values.

Each of these socio-economic scenarios was linked with a likely climate scenario (Hulme et al., 2002) in terms of global greenhouse-gas World market 2080s Global sustainability 2080s emission scenarios considered (850 ppm) (550 ppm) compatible with the development characteristics. The estimated scale of effects of the climate drivers, together with the other influences on flood risk 2080s Foresight scenarios implicit in the development scenarios Decrease (<- £1k) Negligible (- £1k to £1k) (such as environmental regulation, Low increase (£1k to £100k) sea-level change, urbanization, Medium increase (£100K to £10,000K) infrastructure development, etc.) High increase (> £10,000K) were assessed by groups of experts. Outside IFP Figures in brackets are atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations. IFP = indicative flood plain The results were then factored in to 0 100 200 km a modified version (Hall et al., 2003) of an existing software system for determining, by quantitative but broad-brush hydrological and Figure 3 — Change in average annual flood damage costs (in pounds sterling per hydraulic procedures, the expected 10 km by 10 km grid square) in England and Wales by the 2080s as estimated by UK spatial extents of fluvial (1-in-100- Floods Foresight project under the four scenarios of Figure 2 (figure reproduced, with year event) and coastal (1-in-200-year permission, from UK Floods Foresight report (Evans et al., 2004)). event) flooding, together with the associated cost implications in social debatable. Some such points include as input to hydrological modelling and infrastructure terms. Extensive the establishment of rankings and systems to predict river discharge details of the methods are to be found multipliers by expert groups (which, regimes, uncertainty enters results in Evans et al. (2004). Figure 3 shows while probably the best approach one from a range of sources. These can some results from this procedure in can take, may not give repeatable include the structure of the GCM used, terms of average annual flood damage results); the use of global climate emission scenarios, RCM structure, for the 2080s under the four combined projections with local development downscaling of climate outputs to drive climate-and-socioeconomic scenarios. scenarios; and in estimating the major runoff models and the structure of the Further numerical explorations rather than all sources of flooding. hydrological models. Figure 4 gives introduced mitigating measures to The advantages reside in developing an example of the relative importance gauge the effect of actions to reduce good estimates across a wide spread of these sources of uncertainty for an flood risk. of disciplines, including climatology investigation reported by Kay et al. and hydrology, to explore future flood (2009). The underlying form of the This Floods Foresight project was risk and management options. figure is based on a flood frequency undoubtedly influential in the UK curve, here relating change in flood in raising the profile of the possible Modelling uncertainties peak river flow magnitude to its scale of climate impacts and has in flood probabilities mean return period. The change attracted interest in, for example, relates to 2071-2100 projected flows China, India, Japan, the Netherlands As a contrast to the above type of in comparison with the baseline (1985- and the USA. It is plainly a ‘broad- broad-scale approach to flood risk 2001) observed records caused by a brush’ approach with advantages under changed climate, the next range of factors. and drawbacks inherent in such a example considered here is a detailed procedure. The drawbacks centre on modelling approach to fluvial flood Five GCMs were used (HadCM3, the inevitable need for approximation risk, attempting, in particular, to CSIRO-Mk2, CGCM2, ECHAM4 and which should be recognized by the quantify the errors associated with the CCSR), together with eight RCMs and scientists but the degree to which it aspects of the assessment. When using two hydrological catchment models, is apparent in outcome summaries is climate model predicted precipitation a parameter-sparse conceptual model

200 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 80 different flood magnitude-frequency outcomes under different climate 60 projections for regions of the United Kingdom show convergence in terms 40 of the sign of the direction of change of peak flood flow at a range of 20 recurrence intervals. This represents a welcome move towards defining 0 the robustness of hydrological projections and is a move towards

Percentage change in flood peak -20 indicating probabilistic outcomes

2 5 10 20 50 from (partial) ensembles. In even a relatively small country like the Return period (years) United Kingdom, and one which is

‘current natural variability’ downscaling relatively data-rich, the pattern, even Emissions Regional climate model structure of direction of change in (say) the 50- Global climate model structure Hydrological model structure Global climate model initial conditions Hydrological model parameters year recurrence interval flood is seen to be complex and accompanied by Figure 4 — Sources of uncertainty, denoted by different colours, in river flood considerable error margins. These magnitude/frequency relationships from a variety of sources. Change refers to the approaches are at an interesting difference between the 1985-2001 baseline and 2071-2100; results are shown for the exploratory stage of research rather 86 km2 River Duddon catchment in north-west England (median annual flood 120 m3/s). than one as yet mature in practical The “current natural variability” plots indicate the median and 90 per cent upper and application. Assessment of relatively lower bounds (obtained from resampling) (after Kay et al., 2009). comprehensive approaches like this to climate-induced hydrological impact highlight the wide array of and a grid-based runoff and routing detailed investigation are discussed components that can be taken into model, the precise combinations in the work. account, the variability thereby of models being detailed in Kay et produced and the informed judgement al. (op. cit.). The figure is for one The approach of this example, which needs to be brought to bear in particular river catchment in the of using downscaled RCM data using such information in flood risk United Kingdom: results are similarly to drive hydrological catchment policy-making and management. available for a number of other United models to derive flow time series Kingdom catchments, the pattern of from which future flood metrics can Water demand and resource outcomes differing between them. be established, is one which the An important background metric to United Kingdom government has The last example in this section moves be aware of is how much variation taken as the basis for its guidance from consideration of climate effects in the flood frequency curve is to on appropriate allowances to make on flooding to an investigation of be expected from “natural” climate on flood management scheme design impacts on water resources, again variability without any anthropogenic in the light of climate variability discussing an example investigation climate pressures considered. The (Department for Environment, Food in the light of more general lessons “current” variability is approximated and Rural Affairs, 2006; Department of that can be drawn on advantages in this work by repeated monthly Communities and Local Government, and disadvantages of particular resampling of the baseline data: 2006). Advice has been updated as techniques. Figure 5 shows an analysis whether this is a true reflection of climate scenarios evolve and as model of water availability under a scenario the extent of variability in climate systems develop. of climate and demand change in other than as a result of emissions eastern and southern Africa, covering is open to question. The work of Figure 4 is part of a suite a region of some 12.8 million km2 with of research seeking to offer a measure a population of over 300 million. A A conclusion suggested in the work of confidence around best estimates consistent and realistic approach is that uncertainty from GCMs is the of flood impacts from climate drivers. applied across 20 countries was largest of the sources of uncertainty In a manner somewhat similar to the sought to cover spatial and temporal tested. The outlier GCM result (see presentation of GCM results in terms variations in water availability and Figure 4) is the CCSR model which of convergence of sign of change demands, with an impetus from the is relatively extreme in terms of the between different model outcomes, UN Environment Programme and winter rainfall it predicts for the United Bell et al. (2009), for example, Food and Agriculture Organization Kingdom. Limitations of even a very have investigated whether or not objectives.

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 201 1961-1990 2050 Challenges to be met

It was noted in the introduction to this article that effective planning and management of the hydrological domain is imperative whether climate is naturally and/or anthropogenically varying. Much recent research has focused on possible future changes in

-1.0 to -0.98 temperature and precipitation under -0.98 to -0.95 anthropogenic modification of climate -0.95 to -0.90 but, in many regions of the world, -0.90 to -0.75

-0.75 to -0.5 the current climate poses significant -0.5 to -0.2 water-management problems in -0.2 to 0.2 terms of deficit and/or excess water, 0.2 to 0.5

0.5 to 0.75 particularly where natural variability 0.75 to 0.90 is great. It has been argued that, in 0.90 to 0.95 many regions, issues essentially of 0.95 to 0.98 Index = 90% reliable flow + GW - demand climatic variability may dominate 90% reliable flow + GW + demand 0.98 to 1.0 over those of climate change for some considerable period. In terms Figure 5 — Estimated differences in combined surface water and groundwater of anthropogenic climate change, it (GW) availability between 1961-1990 and 2050 under a climate change projection is important to note that, in around accompanied by high water demand: water stress is indicated by negative values (after one-third of the world (Bates et al., Meigh et al., 1998). 2008) the expected direction of rainfall change 2090-2099 compared with that of 1980-1990 is, under the SRES The essence of the methodology and parts of South Africa and regions A1B emission scenario (representing (Meigh et al., 1999) is the estimation round Lake Victoria predicted to see rapid economic growth, regional of surface water flows, groundwater exacerbation of existing problems. convergence and balanced energy yield and water demand on a sources), indeterminate from multi- 0.5 by 0.5 degree latitude and This semi-distributed water resource GCM projections. longitude gridded basis, using modelling system with subsequent interlinked numerical estimates enhancements has been used in Against this background, the final part and conceptual models, whose West Africa, the Caspian Sea Basin, of this article looks briefly at research parameters are derived from data the Ganges-Brahmaputra Himalayan challenges for the way ahead. It would with wide-scale availability such as region and the South American be advantageous to quantify natural land cover, soil type, aquifer type, continent. Merits of this type of variability in climate, the baseline population and livestock distributions. approach lie in its design for spatially against which human-induced effects Some data infilling and some sub- distributed application in the light of operate. In general it would be good model systems were incorporated: very data-sparse conditions and in the to know where greatest sensitivity in hydrological model components were use of effective surrogate variables to predictions arises. It is useful also to tested against 1961-1990 data. Monthly address the issue. As such, methods quantify, as much work increasingly climate projections to 2050 (Hulme, like this may be considered to be more does, uncertainties attributable to 1996) and water demand scenarios appropriately used for exploring various sources in projections of were considered for urban and rural trends and planning at regional scales climate and hydrological futures. populations and for agricultural and rather than for estimating the specifics Importantly, it would be good, industrial developments. Details of of local demands. though undoubtedly challenging, to results are given in Meigh et al. (op. distinguish, in the notably multivariate cit.): in short, increased populations The concluding section of this hydrological response, the separate and the trend towards improved living article outlines challenges yet to effects on water regimes of factors standards suggested the likelihood of be met beyond the undoubted beyond that of climate, especially significant increases in the proportions insights and information that of land use and surface water and of countries affected by water scarcity investigations like those examples groundwater management practices with, in this example, Sudan, Eritrea described in this section have already and regimes, not least because many and Mozambique being particularly at afforded the hydrological and wider adaptation measures are most readily risk from changes in water availability communities. achieved through these routes.

202 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 future adaptation options. Climate and derived hydrological scenarios can serve as test cases for checking proposed interventions rather than featuring primarily in the derivation of responses.

These types of research and actions plainly benefit from collaborative effort and information-sharing across scientific and national communities. Elucidating the separate and varied influences on the behaviour of the water cycle, while challenging, offers much potential for assessing the relative risks in hydrological changes and their patterns over space and time, together with opportunity for exploration of adaptation options for In order to effect some of the above procedures for areas of low, as well safe water regimes under evolving aspirations, methods of transferring as higher, data availability. climatic conditions. climate and hydrological information between temporal and spatial scales, Reference was made above to the whilst active subjects of research in multivariate nature of the hydrological terms of both statistical and physically system: it would be of value to include based procedures (see, for example, in hydrological methods and models an References Fowler et al., 2007), remain an area appropriately dynamic representation with scope for improvement to of the domain in terms of features Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu, and J.P. Palutikof (eds), 2008: Climate capture effects of physical processes, (beyond water contents and flows) change and water. Technical paper both atmospheric and terrestrial. The that can respond to changes in of the Intergovernmental Panel on point has been made however that, climate including land use, water Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp. for example, even good downscaling management practices and features from a large-scale model that is itself of socio-economic and infrastructure Bell, V.A., A.L. Kay, R.G. Jones, R.J. Moore, imprecise and/or inaccurate will yield development. This incorporation of and N.S. Reynard, 2009: Use of soil data in a grid-based hydrological finer-discretization data which are degrees of feedback to changing model to estimate spatial variation of doubtful quality and relevance. climates paves the way for the more in changing flood risk across the UK. There remains a compelling need, par­ realistic assessment of adaptation Journal of Hydrology (in press). ticularly for flood risk quantification, options. Readily comprehensible Cullen, M.J.P., 1993: The Unified Forecast/ for more reliable estimation of extreme expressions of risk should accompany Climate Model. Meteorological precipitation, particularly at fine time these transient hydrological scenario Magazine, 122, 81-94. discretization. explorations. Department of Communities and Local Government, 2006: Planning Policy Climate model outputs to hydrology, From a water policy and management Statement 25: Development and Flood and indeed hydrology outputs to perspective climatological and Risk. Stationery Office, London. users, are increasingly supplied hydrological futures are best Department for Environment, Food as ensembles and should be accompanied by reliability estimates and Rural Affairs, 2006: Flood and accompanied by some measure and/or guidance for management Coastal Defence Appraisal Guidance of reliability. Research can also in the light of uncertainties. It may FCDPAG3 Economic Appraisal. Supplementary Note to Operating be usefully directed to a greater also be profitable to approach the Authorities: Climate Change Impacts. degree towards spatial coherence problem by considering what water London, 9 pp. in estimates of changes in the policies and actions can, given Department of Trade and Industry, water regime, as opposed to arrays economic and political conditions, 2002: Foresight futures 2020: revised of (largely independent) point (or most readily be introduced to address scenarios and guidance. HMSO, grid) estimates plotted in a spatial current requirements whilst future- London, 32 pp. sense. This is of value in addressing proofing water management. Wilby Dialogue on Water and Climate, 2003: adaptation measures and, as with (2008) for example promotes “low- Climate changes the water rules: other research aspects, should cover regret” solutions keeping open how water managers can cope

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 203 with today’s climate variability and Hall, J.W., R.J. Dawson, P.B. Sayers, 1998: Assessment of global water tomorrow’s climate change. Ed B. C. Rosu, J.B. Chatterton, and resources—Phase II: estimates of Appleton. Dialogue on Water and R.A. Deakin, 2003: Methodology for present and future water availability Climate, Netherlands, 105 pp. national-scale flood risk assessment. for eastern and southern Africa. Proceedings of the Institution of Institute of Hydrology report to Essery, R.L.H., M.J. Best, R.A. Civil Engineers: Water, Maritime and Department for International Betts, P.M. Cox and C.M. Taylor, Energy, 156, 235-247. Development, Wallingford, 55 pp. 2003: Explicit representation of subgrid heterogeneity in a GCM Hulme, M. (Ed.), 1996: Climate change Meigh, J.R., A.A. McKenzie and K.J. Sene, land surface scheme. Journal of and southern Africa: an exploration 1999: A grid-based approach to water Hydrometeorology, 4, 530-543. of some potential impacts and scarcity estimates for eastern and implications in the SADC region. southern Africa. Water Resources European Commission Joint Research Climatic Research Unit, University Management, 13, 85-115. Centre, 2005: Climate change and the of East Anglia, Norwich, United European water dimension: a report Kingdom. Wilby, R.L., 2008 Dealing with to the European Water Directors. uncertainties of future climate: (S.J. Eisenreich (ed.), EU Report No. Hulme, M., G.J. Jenkins, X. Lu, the special challenge of semi-arid 21553, 253 pp. J.R. Turnpenny, T.D. Mitchell, regions. Proceedings of the Water R.G. Jones, J. Lowe, J.M. Murphy, Tribune: Climate change and water Evans, E., R. Ashley, J. Hall, E. Penning- D. Hassell, P. Boorman, R. McDonald extremes. Expo Zaragoza, Spain. Rowsell, A. Saul, P. Sayers, C. Thorne and S. Hill, 2002: Climate change and A. Watkinson, 2004: Foresight: scenarios of the United Kingdom: the WMO, 2009 (in preparation): Challenges Future flooding. Scientific summary, UKCIP02 Scientific report. Tyndall and opportunities in research to Volume I: Future risks and their Centre for Climate Change Research, enable improved products and new drivers, 366 pp; Volume II: Managing University of East Anglia, Norwich, services in weather, climate and future risks. Office of Science and United Kingdom, 120 pp. environment. Report of the Executive Technology, London, 417 pp . Council Task Team on research Kay, A.L., H.N. Davies, V.A. Bell and aspects of enhanced climate, Fowler, H.J., S. Blenkinsop and C. Tebaldi, R.G. Jones, 2009: Comparison of weather, water and environmental 2007: Linking climate change uncertainty sources for climate prediction framework. modelling to impacts studies: recent change impacts: flood frequency in advances in downscaling techniques England. Climatic Change, 92, 41-64. for hydrological modelling. Inter­ national Journal of Climatology, 27, Meigh, J.R. , A.A. McKenzie, B.N. Austin, 1547-1578. R.B. Bradford and N.S. Reynard,

204 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Food security under a changing climate by Hideki Kanamaru*

Introduction mutually supportive in the agriculture fish and humans. When human health sector. is compromised, particularly that Human beings have learned to live of women who prepare foods for with climate variability on various household members, the capacity to timescales, from daily to decadal. Food security and utilize food effectively is dramatically However, the climate variability we climate change lowered. Food safety may also be are accustomed to is changing quickly, compromised with degraded hygiene accompanied by a rise in global Climate change affects livelihoods in preparing food under limited fresh­ mean temperature due to increasing of poor and rich alike by impacting water availability or food-storage greenhouse-gas concentrations basic human needs, including food, ability due to warmer climate. Mal­ in the atmosphere. The poor in clothing and shelter requirements. nutrition may also increase, due developing countries who already The four components of food to shrinking food biodiversity and have difficulties in coping with current security—food availability, food excessive dependence on a few staple climate variability will be even more access, food utilization and food foods. vulnerable. They are the ones who production system stability—are contribute the least to emissions of the heart of the mandate of the The changes in climate variability greenhouse gases, yet need to learn to Food and Agriculture Organization have a direct implication on food - cope with changing climate with few of the United Nations (FAO). All four production system stability. Increased financial or technical resources. components are affected by climate frequency and intensity of extreme (FAO, 2008(a)) but food availability events such as drought and flood This article first discusses the multiple is most intimately associated with would be a great threat to stability, aspects of food security in the light of climate and its changes, from crops whether the impact is domestic or climate change. The next part looks to animal products, marine and through the global food market. The at impacts on crop production at aquaculture products and wood and frequency and magnitude of food different spatial scales. Adaptation non-wood products from forests. emergencies might increase, resulting to climate variability is most urgent for Even when production is sufficient, if from complex interrelations between food security of smallholders, while a system of food allocation, whether it political conflicts and migration in a climate prediction and longer-term is through market or not, is negatively context of increased competition for climate-change-impact assessments affected, food access is impaired limited resources. constitute the basis for adaptation and food security is compromised. measures. This is discussed with an Urbanization is rapidly taking place in example of a study in Morocco and many countries of the world, creating Global impacts on a focus on use of climate prediction a category of urban poor who do potential agricultural and information. The article concludes not themselves farm and are very with a discussion on adaptation and vulnerable to climate change. production mitigation measures that are often Food availability and agricultural Projections of increased pests and production under climate change are * Environment, Climate Change and diseases due to climate change have discussed in Chapter 5 “Food, fibre Bioenergy Division, Food and Agriculture an important implication for nutrition. and forest products” of the second Organization of the United Nations New risks will affect crops, livestock, volume of the Fourth Assessment

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 205 NPP pc % change av 6-90 to 2030 -90 – -80 -80 – -70 -70 – -65 -65 – -55 -55 – -45 -45 – -35 -35 – -20 -20 – 0 0 – 245

Figure 1 — Net primary production of biomass per capita percent change (from 1961–1990 mean to 2030): data compiled and adjusted by FAO Environment, Climate Change and Bioenergy Division, based on “World maps of climatological net primary production of biomass (NPP)” (2006) available at http://www.fao.org/NR/climpag/globgrids/NPP_en.asp

Report of the Intergovernmental Panel was calculated from temperature, Subnational impacts on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) and precipitation and population a number of other studies that have projections. From purely biophysical, on crop production been published since then (e.g. Cline, geophysical and demographical 2007; Lobell et al., 2008). factors, it appears that only parts of To assess food security in the Europe, the Russian Federation and light of climate change for smaller In general, crop yields will increase Japan may benefit from increased countries and different populations in cold areas where low temperature productivity due to warming in the within a country, fine spatial scale currently limits crop growth. On the next couple of decades. climate information is essential other hand, heat stress on crop and and the need is higher than water availability will lead to a decrease Projections at the national scale have ever. Any planning of adaptation in yields in warm environments. only limited relevance to food security measures to climate change Globally, food production may of rural populations, however. While requires finer spatial climate increase but a net negative impact temperature increase is projected information that feeds into impact- is expected if night temperatures almost globally, the pattern of assessment models, such as crop increase and averages rise by more rainfall changes varies significantly simulation. Good historical climate than a few degrees Celsius. from region to region and at sub- data are required for calibrating national level due to topography and impact models along with future In addition to the potential negative proximity to water bodies. For the projections of climate to calculate impact on global food production, NPP projection shown in Figure 1, future crop yields. there is pressure from the projected global climate model output on increase in population in most about 2.5° x 2.5° grid points were FAO recently conducted a study of developing countries. This is illustrated interpolated to each country’s area. the impacts of climate change on in a plot of net primary production of Small countries sometimes fall within Moroccan crop production up to biomass, a biophysical indicator of a single cell of model output and the end of this century under the potential agricultural production, from the results for these countries need framework of a World Bank climate a recent FAO study which produced to be interpreted with caution. It is change project (Gommes et al., 2009). a typology of vulnerable countries probably meaningless to compare The study covered six agro-ecological to climate change (Figure 1). Net relative magnitude of changes with zones, 50 crops and two climate- primary production per capita in 2030 other small neighbouring countries. change scenarios.

206 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 In a number of experiments, elevated needs regarding required variables, emission scenario and a number of carbon dioxide was shown to have data format, temporal frequency, assumptions in climate and crop a positive impact on plant growth spatial scale, length of data period, models are correct. Placing too much and yield. It was found, however, etc. Above all, climate scientists are confidence in impact models might that carbon dioxide fertilization will responsible for providing guidance on prevent the formulation of sound bring only marginal benefit to future correctly using the data in applications adaptation measures. Moroccan yield due to the water stress and interpreting the results from to which rainfed crops are exposed. impact models. The impact-study The IPCC data distribution centre On the other hand, there is still room in community, on the other hand, needs offers a variety of projection data Moroccan agriculture for technological to ensure that climate data are used from a range of climate models and advances such as more efficient for what they were intended for and emission scenarios. Impact studies irrigation systems, improved crop to understand the assumptions and often do not have the resources to varieties and more efficient fertilizer uncertainty associated with the data make use of all the available data, use. Agriculture may adapt, at a cost, accurately. however. The cost lies in downscaling by overcoming some of the negative data to suitable spatial resolution. climate change impacts. Vulnerable populations are concen­ Most downscaling models (statistical trated in arid and semi-arid areas model or regional climate model) are and projections of freshwater designed for using outputs from a Use of climate availability under climate change is couple of global climate models only. information for impact a crucial variable for the assessment Computing resources are limited. of agricultural production. As it turns When impact studies do not have assessments out, global climate models do not the luxury of using multiple emission The Morocco study used statistically necessarily agree on the projected scenarios and global climate model downscaled climate projections. direction of changes in precipitation outputs, one needs to carefully With increasing computing power in low to mid-latitudes which interpret the results from impact and progress in scientific research, coincide with the area of arid climate, models. If the target area does not regional climate models (RCM) are distribution of vulnerable people and have good skill in precipitation, being used as a tool to provide fine rainfed agriculture. The Mediterranean sensitivity studies may be preferred spatial scale climate information. A region, including Morocco, is one of in order to see the impact of different dynamical regional model can produce the few places where most models magnitude of precipitation changes projections of all climate variables agree that precipitation will decrease (from decrease to increase). that are physically, dynamically and in the future. When assessing hydrologically consistent with each food security in the regions where One of the biggest assumptions in other. When global climate models models do not have good ability in the Morocco example is that current can do multi-decadal simulations precipitation projection, extra caution agricultural practices will remain at 100-km grid spacing, regional should be paid in choosing climate unchanged in the future. We have climate models can simulate at down models and their output to work little confidence for this assumption to 10 km grid spacing and below. In with. It is possible to arrive at totally to hold until the end of century. What this connection, the initiative by WMO different conclusions on future rainfed we are more interested in is the near to establish Regional Climate Centres agriculture with data from different future, perhaps up to 2030, in order (RCCs) for provision of a wide suite climate models. to devise adaptation measures that of regional-scale climate information are appropriate for local conditions is a welcome development. A similar point can be made for and climate projections and to start emission scenarios. A wide range implementing them. Since the climate In the course of the Morocco study, of future projections is possible, change signal may be hidden in large the interpretation of a finding depending on socio-economic climate variability, in near forthcoming required on many occasions a correct development. The uncertainty decades, it may be worthwhile to make understanding of climate data and needs to be recognized in the results projections for 2100 and pattern-scale its propagating uncertainty into the derived from climate-model outputs them back to 2030. The end-of-century crop model. In order to encourage by a crop model. Climate models projection of crop production itself appropriate use of climate data, the are not meant to predict the future should not be interpreted literally, interactions between the climate precisely but are rather designed however, as is clear if we think back to science community and the impact to indicate the response of climate what agriculture looked like 100 years application (physical and social) system given changes in forcing. A ago. science community should be more 20 per cent decrease in barley yield at actively promoted. Climate modellers a given location by 2030 is accurate While the time horizon we should need to better understand end-user only if the assumptions made in the focus on in terms of food security

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 207 and climate adaptation is the next two begin with, there is much to be done that can be used in the classroom or decades, climate predictions on this to reduce vulnerability to current for self-learning. The course teaches timescale is both not well understood climate variability. In this context, the basics of climate change and helps and limited. In this respect, the timing climate change adaptation has a learners to plan adaptation actions in of this year’s theme of the World strong linkage with disaster risk a step-wise fashion. Climate Conference-3 is perfect. management. The climate science community has started to address this big challenge. An ongoing FAO project in Mitigation—carbon Improved skills in decadal climate Bangladesh takes a comprehensive prediction, together with down­ approach to livelihood adaptation. At sequestration scaling, will better inform impact the local level in the field, measures assessments that constitute food introduced are: better agronomic Many adaptation options for agri­ security: crop simulation, watershed management, income diversification, culture provide mitigation benefit modelling, etc. strengthening extension services and at the same time; they are readily testing recommended adaptation available and can be adopted techniques. Farmers could adapt immediately. Agriculture and forestry Adaptation in the by changing planting dates and sectors combined are responsible agriculture sector crop variety that suit better warmer for one-third of total anthropogenic and drier/wetter climate. Improved greenhouse-gas emissions and are fertilizer use would increase per the largest sources of methane and Regardless of international commit­ unit area yield. Efficient irrigation nitrous oxide emissions. Tapping great ments to reduce greenhouse gases, a and watershed management would mitigation potential in these sectors certain level of climate change cannot alleviate water stress that may be is a key to achieving an ambitious be avoided. Global mean temperature exacerbated under climate change. greenhouse-gas-reduction target. is expected to keep rising at least over the next few decades. Adapting Operational use of climate data Soil-carbon sequestration has to climate change is an urgent action and forecasts, particularly seasonal perhaps the biggest potential in needed particularly for developing forecasts, can effectively improve terms of the amount of carbon countries. Joint activities by FAO resilience of agricultural production dioxide. Global technical mitigation and WMO in organizing international systems. Extension workers assist potential from agriculture is about workshops in different regions such farmers to put new agriculture 5.5 Gt C-eq per year by 2030. Soil- as the International Symposium on technologies and approaches into carbon sequestration can contribute Climate Change and Food Security practice. Targeting those workers who about 89 per cent of this potential. We in South Asia (August 2008, Dhaka, are closest to the farmers in the field, can expect a high return of reduced Bangladesh) and the International FAO is developing an e-learning tool carbon for relatively low cost with Workshop on Adaptation to Climate on community-based climate change managing land better across all Change in West African Agriculture adaptation in the agriculture sector climatic zones and a variety of land (Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, April 2009), are bringing together representatives of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), the agricultural ministries, and regional and international organizations to discuss strategies for regional climate change adaptation and develop appropriate recommendations for implementation in the vulnerable regions.

Impact studies discussed in previous sections inform decision-makers of vulnerable areas and sectors in order to plan adaptation measures. FAO assists subsistence farmers in building capacities to better adapt to climate change through the provision of technical help. To

208 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 use systems—cropping, grazing and with multiple benefits for adaptation References forestry (FAO, 2008(b); FAO, 2009). and rural development. Agriculture,

however, has been insufficiently Lobell, D. B., M.B. Burke, C. Tebaldi, There are many management practices recognized as a major player in M.D. Mastrandrea, W.P. Falcon and that can restore wastelands, soils and climate change negotiations so far. R.L. Naylor, 2008: Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food ecosystems to enhance soil organic security in 2030. Science, 319, carbon and improve soil quality FAO hosted a high-level conference 607-610. and health. Such practices include on world food security in June 2008 Cline, W.R., 2007: Global Warming organic agriculture, conservation to address the challenges of climate and Agriculture: Impact Estimates, tillage, mulching, cover crops, change and bioenergy. It was the first Peterson Institute for International integrated nutrient management time that world leaders got together Economics, Washington, DC, USA, 207 pp. (including the use of manure to discuss the specific issue of food and compost), agroforestry and and climate change. The countries FAO, 2008(a): Climate change and food improved management of pastures present agreed that there was an security: a framework document, and rangelands. Improved nutrient urgent need to help developing FAO, Rome, Italy (http://www.fao.org/ docrep/010/k2595e/k2595e00.htm). management can also reduce nitrous countries to improve agricultural oxide emissions, while contributing production, to increase investment FAO, 2008(b): The carbon sequestration to soil carbon sequestration. in agriculture and to address the potential in agricultural soils, a submission to the UNFCCC 3rd Session challenge through mitigation and of the ad hoc Working Group on Sustainable land management adaptation measures. Long-term Cooperative Action under practices that increase carbon in soil the Convention (AWG-LCA3), FAO, Rome, Italy (http://unfccc.int/resource/ come with multiple benefits: improved The next two decades are the most docs/2008/smsn/igo/010.pdf). soil fertility, enhanced above-ground crucial period to implement those biodiversity and increased soil water measures, given ever increasing FAO, 2009: Enabling agriculture to con­ storage. Rural livelihoods will build greenhouse-gas emissions and tribute to climate change mitigation, a submission to the UNFCCC 5th Session resilience to climate change through rapidly rising temperature. As the of the ad hoc Working Group on Long- enhanced/stabilized productivity, the 15th session of the Conference term Cooperative Action under the provision of a range of ecosystem of Parties to the United Nations Convention (AWG-LCA5), FAO, Rome, Italy (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/ services, and reversing degradation Framework Convention on Climate 2008/smsn/igo/036.pdf). and desertification. Change (UNFCCC) in Copenhagen, Denmark, nears, it is the right time Gommes, R., T. El Hairech, D. Rosillon, R. Balaghi, and H. Kanamaru, 2009: Conclusion for the international community to World Bank–Morocco study on the take action to tackle climate change impact of climate change on the Climate change affects smallholders while improving food security. agricultural sector: Impact of climate in many ways but enhanced climate change on agricultural yields in Morocco, FAO, Rome, Italy (ftp://ext- prediction and efficient use of Acknowledgements ftp.fao.org/SD/Reserved/Agromet/ climate information can guide all WB_FAO_morocco_CC_yield_ concerned with food security, from The author wishes to thank his FAO impact/report/). farmers to governments, to sound colleagues, René Gommes, Claudia adaptation and mitigation measures. Hiepe, Reuben Sessa and Selvaraju Agriculture has a significant potential Ramasamy for comments on the to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions manuscript.

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 209 ObituaryTitle

Margaret Bushby In this way, first as a scientist in the support of projects, her understated (née Atkins) Forecasting Research Branch and sense of humour, how they appreciated then, by the early 1980s, in the group her knowledge and agreeable help, adapting the operational model of how her interventions were always Margaret Bushby (née Atkins) died the atmosphere to the needs of the received with a deal of affectionate on 27 December 2008. She married Central Forecast Office at Bracknell, amusement, how she was a great late in life and was well-known in she helped the forecasters there personality; she was remembered for international meteorological circles meet not only national needs but also all sorts of reasons. In my later years under both surnames. their obligations as a WMO Regional in the Office, I enjoyed her company, Meteorological Centre and as one of both in Bracknell, at ECMWF and in Norfolk-born, she graduated with the two World Area Forecast Centres Geneva: I found that, once she chose a BSc Hons in Mathematics from for aviation. She was an essential to work on a problem, her ability Nottingham University in 1966 and part of the team which continually to analyse it and her proposals on joined the United Kingdom Met improved the accuracy of NWP how to implement the results of her Office. She found her niche in its team products from 1967 to the present thinking were superb. of workers on mathematical models day; the team which Sir John Mason for numerical weather prediction and Colin Flood wrote “helped bring A highlight of her international (NWP), headed by F.H. Bushby, and about a total transformation in the life was a visit to the National with J.S. Sawyer. She described the way weather forecasting is carried Meteorological Service of Ghana, United Kingdom’s first operational out”. where she represented the Met model (used in the Central Forecast Office as a fellow Commonwealth Office from 2 November 1965) in an In the mid-1980s Margaret joined Meteorological Service. The ladies article in Meteorological Magazine the Met Office’s international there made a delightful fuss of her in 1970. affairs branch and quickly made that she never forgot. her distinctive mark. When she By then, the Met Office was working became its Director in 1990, she In 1990 she became the first woman towards its next supercomputer also became the first woman to to be elected a member of the and a more detailed NWP model. reach that level in the Met Office. Meteorological Club, a subset of some In February 1971, for example, Sometimes supporting the Director- of the more distinguished Fellows of Bushby, Mavis Hinds and Margaret General, Sir John Houghton, and the Royal Meteorological Society. carried punched Hollerith cards on often alone, she contributed to many the weekly Royal Air Force flight international meetings, including Her de facto memorials are on the to Washington en route to the IBM World Meteorological Congress, World-Wide Web: a random sample facility in Poughkeepsie, NY, to WMO constituent bodies and the of the activities she was involved develop the model on their newest Council and Finance Committee of the in during her later years includes supercomputer. Later that year, the European Centre for Medium Range reports on the Automated Shipboard IBM 360/195 was installed in the Weather Forecasts (EMCWF). Aerological Programme Panel and newly built Richardson Wing at the tenth session of the Coordinating Bracknell, to be opened by Prime Colleagues from across the world Group for the Composite Observing Minister Edward Heath. have written, testifying to her strong System for the North Atlantic.

210 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 All scientists leave behind them received no particular notice by the (SIRS) data in numerical forecasting. foundations and building bricks on world at large but knew that she had Meteorological Magazine, 104(1234), 125–142. which others construct the fabric been lucky to be able to contribute of their particular speciality: in to the benefit of humankind and to Atkins, M.J., 1985: Quality Control, the online catalogue of the United have enjoyed the camaraderie of Selection and Data Processing of Observations in the Meteorological Kingdom’s National Meteorological international meteorology. I hope she Office Operational Forecast Library (http://www.metoffice.gov. knew well-deserved feelings of a job System. Workshop on the Use and uk/corporate/library/catalogue.html) well done and a life well lived. Quality Control of Meteorological Margaret is shown as author or co- Observations, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, author of some 20 titles over the Stan Cornford Reading, UK, 255–290. period 1970-1988. Golding, B., K. Mylne and P. Clark, 2004: References The history and future of numerical She was close to retirement when weather prediction in the Met Office, she married her former boss Fred Weather, 59, 299–306. Atkins, M.J., 1970: Objective analysis Bushby and they had five happy years of upper-air height and humidity Mason, J. and C. Flood, 2004: Fred together before he died in 2004. She data on a fine mesh. Meteorological Bushby, Weather, 59, 231. was a devout Methodist and played Magazine, 90, 98–109. the cello in a local orchestra. Atkins, M.J., 1974: The objective analysis of relative humidity. Tellus, 26, Like many people involved with WMO, 663–671. Margaret influenced decisions which Atkins, M.J. and M.V. Jones, 1975: affected, affect and will continue Experiment to determine the value to affect, the lives of millions. She of satellite infrared spectrometer

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 211 Fifty years ago ...

WMO Bulletin Vol. VIII, No. 3, July 1959

Third World Technical assistance Meteorological Congress Congress decided not to adopt The session was opened in the a regular technical assistance Assembly Hall of the Palais des programme but to continue on an Nations on 1 April 1959 by the increased scale the Operational and President of WMO, Mr Andre Viaut. ... Technical Development Fund created [the] Deputy Director of the European by Second Congress. An amount of Office of the United Nations, spoke 60 000 US dollars was included in of the long record held by WMO the budget for this purpose. and its predecessor of international cooperation in the scientific and WMO’s responsibility technical field, of the progress made by WMO since the holding of in hydrology its Second Congress in 1955, and of the important part played by WMO in the organization of the International ... It was finally decided to establish Geophysical Year. The membership a Technical Commission for The Assembly Hall of the Palais des of the Organization, now larger than Hydrological Meteorology ... Nations in Geneva has been the scene of that of any other specialized agency, many important international sessions but was a proof of its vitality and of the It was further agreed to create a small rarely have representatives from so many increasing importance of meteorology section for hydrological meteorology different countries gathered there as for in the world of today. in the WMO Secretariat, the main the Third World Meteorological Congress, functions of which would be to assist the opening meeting of which is featured Mr Viaut referred to the accession the work of the new commission and in the picture on the cover. ... The next of the I00th 100th Member of WMO, of the working groups on hydrology four years, during which the programme which had taken place just before the of the regional associations and also decided by Congress will be implemented, opening of Third Congress and exactly to continue the close collaboration will no doubt provide still further evidence eight years after the adoption by First of WMO in the water resource of how WMO and the other specialized Congress of the resolution transferring development programme of the agencies can contribute to making the to WMO the functions and obligations United Nations and of the other world happier and more united. of the IMO. ... specialized agencies.

WMO Convention International ozone work

... . It was decided to amend Article The proposals for transferring to 13 (c) to the effect that the number WMO responsibility for certain * A fuller account of the WMO Bulletin 50 years ago can be found in the Bulletin of elected members of the Executive aspects of international ozone work online: http://www.wmo.int/pages/ Committee should be increased which had hitherto been assumed by publications/bulletin_en/index_en.html from six to nine. the International Ozone Commission

212 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 were accepted with the exception Eleventh session of the threatened to become a problem. that ozone data would not be collected On the one hand it was considered on a permanent basis by the WMO Executive Committee that much valuable time would be Secretariat. A sum of 5 000 US dollars wasted by the crews journeying to was included in the budget for the ... This was an historic gathering and from the meteorological office; purpose of carrying out interregional in that it was the first session of on the other hand it was felt that the comparisons of ozone instruments. the enlarged committee and in all personal briefing, always regarded probability the last session to be held as an integral part of the flight Public information in the Palais — it is planned that future meteorological service, should not be sessions will take place in the new dispensed with. The solution proposed Congress noted that the publicity WMO headquarters. was remote briefing by closed circuit given to the work of WMO, especially television, supplemented by facsimile during the IGY, had helped to draw General and financial equipment for the transmission of attention to the value and necessity flight documents. of meteorological activities in the questions economic life of the world. It was ... With a little practice, forecasters considered that efforts should be The budget approved for 1960 and crews grew accustomed to the concentrated on the dissemination of amounted to US$ 655 105. This new technique of briefing and, when information regarding the applications includes provision for the recruitment removal finally took place, the system of meteorology to other activities of a small number of additional was already well established and (such as agriculture, aviation and personnel in the Secretariat in accepted by all concerned. ... shipping) and the unparalleled accordance with decisions taken by international collaboration through Congress. The briefing procedure is simple. Flight the daily worldwide exchange of forecast documents are transmitted by meteorological information. Membership of WMO facsimile to the operations room and are in the hands of the flight crew as Discussions were held regarding the Guinea became a Member of WMO they follow the forecaster’s discourse celebrations of the 10th anniversary on 26 April 1959. Ruanda Urundi on the screen. As the TV transmission of the coming into force of the WMO became a Member of WMO on 28 April is in black and white, fronts have to Convention (1960) and it was decided 1959. WMO now has 102 Members: be specified as warm, cold, etc., but, that these celebrations should take 78 States and 24 Territories. otherwise, briefing is similar to the place jointly with the ceremonies on normal personal briefing. the occasion of the opening of the new permanent building of WMO in It is believed that this is the first the same year. Television in pre-flight occasion on which TV has been briefing, at Dublin Airport put into regular and routine use in Officers of the Organization preflight meteorological briefing. Aer When Aer Lingus, the Irish airline Lingus and the Irish Meteorological A. Viaut (France) was re-elected company, recently decided to Service deserve to be congratulated President of WMO for a second term remove its flight operations office on their initiative and the undoubted of office; L. de Azcarraga (Spain) from the main terminal building success of the venture. was elected first Vice-President and at Dublin Airport to a site remote M.F. Taha (United Arab Republic), from the meteorological office, the second Vice-President. D.A. Davies was personal attendance of crews for reappointed Secretary-General. pre-flight meteorological briefing

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 213 NewsTitle from the Secretariat

Visits of the Croatia

Secretary-General On the occasion of the 14th session of the WMO Commission for Basic The Secretary-General, Michel Systems (CBS) (25 March-2 April Jarraud, recently made official visits 2009), the Secretary-General visited to a number of Member countries as Dubrovnik and met with the Permanent briefly reported below. He wishes Representative of Croatia with WMO, to place on record his gratitude to Mr Ivan Čačić. The CBS session was those Members for the kindness and preceded (23 and 24 March) by the hospitality extended to him. Technical Conference on the WMO Integrated Observing System.

Turkey Chile Istanbul, Turkey, March 2009 — The World Water Council’s 5th World Mr Jarraud with Mr Veysel Ero lu, Minister The Secretary-General visited Water Forum was held in Istanbul of Environment and Forestry of Turkey Santiago de Chile on 26 and 27 March from 16 to 22 March 2009, under the 2009, when national ceremonies took theme “Bridging divides for water”. place to mark the 125th anniversary The Secretary-General delivered of the historic legal act of 26 March WMO’s statement and met with water resources management systems 1884 which established coordinated Turkey’s Minister of Environment and informed the participants on the meteorological observations in Chile and Forestry, Mr Veysel Ero lu. importance of the forthcoming World and their telegraphic concentration at Moreover, Mr Jarraud met with His Climate Conference-3. the Central Meteorological Office. Serene Highness Albert II, Prince of Monaco, for private discussions on climate change and development issues, including preparations for World Climate Conference-3.

At the same venue and in the context of the African Ministers’ Council on Water initiative, Mr Jarraud and a number of other dignitaries participated in a side event chaired by Prince Willem- Alexander of Orange and organized by the African Development Bank and UN-Water/Africa. The Secretary- General highlighted WMO’s role in the Dubrovnik, Croatia — Participants in the 14th session of the WMO Commission for Basic strengthening of Africa’s integrated Systems (25 March-2 April 2009)

214 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 crisis and calls for joint action of the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in translating the multilateral response into action at the country level.

CEB reiterated the UN’s “common commitment to assist countries and the global community to confront the crisis, accelerate recovery and build a fair and inclusive global­ ization, allowing for sustainable economic, social and environmental development for all, while facing the future in a spirit of conviction of the Santiago de Chile, March 2009 — (from left to right): José Huepe, Director of the Chilean need for transformational change”. Directorate of Meteorology (DMC); Myrna Araneda, Director of DMC; Alejandro Muñoz, The UN Chief Executives agreed upon Chief of the Forecasting Subdepartment of DMC; Michel Jarraud; and Patricio Aceituno, nine joint initiatives to help address Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Physical and Mathematical Sciences of the University of the multiple facets of the crisis, as Chile suggested by HLCP. These include additional financing for the most Mr Jarraud met with Chile’s Minister enhanced system-wide security vulnerable; food security; trade; a of Environment, HE Ms Ana Lya management system and highlighting green economy initiative; a global Uriarte, as well as Mr José Huepe the need for adequate financial jobs pact; a social protection floor; Pérez, Director-General of Civil resources. humanitarian, security and social Aviation; Mr Fernando Danús, Director stability; technology and innovation; of Environment at the Ministry of CEB discussed the global financial and monitoring and analysis. Foreign Affairs; and Ms Myrna and economic crisis and the outcome Araneda, Director of Meteorology of the G-20 Leaders’ meeting Portugal and Permanent Representative of in London on 2 April. Following Chile with WMO. its deliberations, CEB adopted a At the kind invitation of ITU communiqué which highlights the Secretary-General Mr Hamadoun France social effects of the crisis, including Touré, the Secretary-General of its impact on the achievement of WMO visited Lisbon on 21 April 2009 The Secretary-General participated the Millennium Development Goals. to participate in the Fourth World in the regular session of the UN The communiqué also underscores Telecommunication Policy Forum System Chief Executives Board the central role of the multilateral (21-24 April 2009). In his address, Mr for Coordination (CEB) hosted by system in articulating and delivering Jarraud stressed the importance of UNESCO in Paris on 4 and 5 April. CEB a coherent global response to the telecommunication for the collection endorsed the decisions taken on its behalf by the High-level Committee on Programme (HLCP), the High- level Committee on Management and the United Nations Development Group. The session focused on UN System actions and deliverables to the 15th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen, December 2009. These will include WCC-3 outcomes, policy recommendations on the UN system security and safety of staff and latest political developments. CEB adopted a statement to Member States underscoring the UN System’s UNESCO, Paris, April 2009 — Participants in the UN System Chief Executives Board for commitment to a strengthened and Coordination

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 215 and exchange of meteorological, hydrological and climatological information. Mr Jarr aud als o remarked that a number of specific radiofrequency bands are today essential for the effective provision of weather services needed for the protection of lives and property in all WMO Member countries.

Bahamas

On 24 April 2009 the Secretary- General visited Nassau to participate in the closure of the 31st session of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, April 2009 — (from left to right) Goroza Guehi, Permanent the RA IV Hurricane Committee and Representative (PR) with WMO of Côte d’Ivoire; Arthur Gar-Glahn, PR of Liberia; Anthony the opening of the 15th session of Anuforom, PR of Nigeria; M. Jarraud; Mactar Ndiaye, PR of Senegal; Ali Jacques Garane, Regional Association IV (24 April- PR of Burkina Faso; and Awadi Abi Egbare, PR of Togo 1 May 2009). During his visit, he met with the Rt Hon. Hubert A. Ingraham, Prime Minister of the Bahamas, and HE the Hon. Earl D. Deveaux, Minister of the International Workshop on Noël Ouedraogo, and had discussions of the Environment. Adaptation to Climate Change in with Mr Moumouni Dieguimde, West African Agriculture, which was Director General of Civil Aviation Mr Jarraud had extensive discussions organized by WMO, FAO, the State and Mr A.J. Garane, Director, with the newly-elected president Agency for Meteorology of Spain, National Meteorological Service and of RA IV, Mr Arthur W. Rolle, the the African Development Bank, Permanent Representative of Burkina vice-president, Ms Luz Graciela de the Economic Community of West Faso with WMO. Furthermore, the Calzadilla, and with all permanent African States, the International Secretary-General met with the representatives present in Nassau Crops Research Institute for the permanent representatives who on the occasion. Semi-Arid Tropics, the International participated in the workshop. Livestock Research Institute and the Burkina Faso General Directorate of Civil Aviation Senegal and Meteorology of Burkina Faso. The Secretary-General visited In order to further develop the Ouagadougou from 27 to 30 April Mr Jarraud met with Burkina Faso’s existing close cooperation between 2009 to address the opening session Minister of Transport, HE Gilbert G. the two organizations, the Secretary- General of WMO visited Dakar on 28 and 29 April 2009 and met with Mr Youssouf Mahamat, Director- General of the Agency for Air Safety in Africa and Madagascar.

France

In Paris, on 14 May 2009, the Secretary-General addressed on behalf of WMO a special session at France’s Senate, at the kind invitation of Senator Christian Gaudin, Vice-President of the Parliamentary Evaluation Office for Scientific and Technological Options. The session was dedicated Nassau, Bahamas — (from left to right) Rob Masters, Director, WMO Development and to the official closure in France of Regional Activities Department; Arthur Rolle, president of RA IV; Hubert Ingraham, Prime the International Polar Year 2007- Minister of the Bahamas; and the Secretary-General of WMO. 2008 campaign.

216 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Bahrain Roshydromet’s 175th anniversary. Elizabeth HEWITT: On the occasion, Mr Jarraud met with Translator/Editor, On 17 and 18 May 2009 the Secretary- deputy Chairman of the Duma, Artur Linguistic Services General visited Manama on the Chilingarov, and other governmental, and Publishing occasion of the launch of the UN scientific and academic authorities. Branch, Programme International Strategy for Disaster Support Services Reduction 2009 Global Assessment Department on Report. Mr Jarraud delivered a Staff matters 7 May 2009 keynote speech and met with the Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Appointments Roberta BOSCOLO, Bahrain, HH Khalifa Bin Salman Scientific Al Khalifa; the Minister of Foreign Communication Affairs of Bahrain, HE Sheikh Khalid Carolin RICHTER: Officer, World Bin Ahmed Bin Mohamed Al Khalifa, Director, Global Climate Research and other high-level officials. Climate Observing Programme, System Secretariat, Research The UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki- on 31 March 2009 Department, on moon, Mr Jarraud and the Assistant 1 June 2009. UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, Ms Margareta Wahlström, Celina Iñones participated in a UN press conference, Nhyan TRAN MULLER: during which Mr Jarraud stressed NGUYEN, Chief, Translator/Editor the importance of investments in Information Tech­ (Spanish), meteorological, hydrological and nology Division, Linguistic Services climate infrastructure and services to Resource Manage­ and Publishing facilitate improved decision-making ment Department, Department, on in disaster risk reduction and climate on 1 April 2009 1 June 2009 change adaptation. Mamy DOUNO: Russian Federation Christian BLONDIN: Internal Auditor, Senior External Internal Oversight At the kind invitation of Alexander Relations Officer, Office, on 30 April Bedritsky, President of WMO and Cabinet and 2009. Head of the Russian Federal Service External Relations for Hydrometeorology and Environ­ Department, on mental Monitoring (Roshydromet), 15 April 2009 the Secretary-General visited Moscow on 27 May 2009 and participated in the celebrations commemorating Dimitar Departures IVANOV: WMO Representative Virginia GUERRERO, Senior Human for Europe, Resources Officer, retired on 31 March Development 2009. and Regional Activities Alexander KARPOV, acting Director, Department, on Global Climate Observing System 17 May 2009. Secretariat, retired on 31 March 2009.

Oksana TARASOVA: Caifang WANG, Senior External Scientific Officer Relations Officer, retired on 31 March Atmospheric 2009. Moscow, Russian Federation, Research and 27 May 2009 — (from right to left): Environment Françoise PLIVARD, Administrative Alexander Bedritsky, Head of Roshydromet Branch, Research Assistant, Documentation and and President of WMO; Mr Jarraud; and Department, on Publications Management Unit, Artur Chilingarov 7 June 2009. Linguistic Services and Publishing

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 217 Branch, Programme Support Services Transfers and Lisa-Anne JEPSEN, Administrative Department, took early retirement on re-assignments Officer, Intergovernmental Panel 31 March 2009. on Climate Change Secretariat, José Arimatea de Sousa Brito was transferred to the Linguistic Dieter SCHIESSL, Director, Strategic was designated Acting Director, Services and Publishing Branch, on Planning Office, Office of the Assistant WMO Information System Branch, 1 June 2009. Secretary-General, retired on 30 April Observing and Information Systems 2009. Department, with effect from 1 May Magaly ROBBEZ, Secretary 2009. (half time), Staff Committee, Jean-Michel RAINER, Acting Director, was transferred (full time) to the WMO Information System Branch, Momado SAHO, formerly Chief, Development and Regional Activities Observing and Information Systems Education and Fellowships Division, Department on 1 July 2009. Department, retired on 30 April Education and Training Office, 2009. Development and Regional Activities Anniversaries Department, was transferred to the Abderrahmane QARBAL, Senior post of Chief, Training Activities Nathalie TOURNIER, Senior Secretary, Stockroom Clerk, Common Services Division, in the same Office on Atmospheric and Environment Branch, Division, Conferences, Contracts 1 May 2009. Research Department: 20 years on and Facilities Management Branch, 1 February 2009 Programme Support Services Yinka R. ADEBAYO, formerly Department, took early retirement Senior Strategic Planning Officer Faisal MIAH, Conference Technical Clerk, on 30 April 2009. in the Strategic Planning Office, Conference Services Unit, Programme ASG’s Office, was transferred to Support Services Department: 20 years Lisbet RAINER, Information Manage­ the post of Chief, Education and on 21 February 2009 ment Assistant, Information Fellowships Division, Education and Technology Division, Resource Training Office, Development and Dieter SCHIESSL, Director, Strategic Management Department, left on Regional Activities Department on Planning Office: 20 years on 31 May 2009 for health reasons. 1 May 2009. 1 March 2009

218 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Recent WMO publications Intercomparison Recommendations of global UV index for the verification Manual on low- from multiband and intercomparison flow estimation filter radiometers: of QPFs and PQPFs and prediction harmonization of from operational (WMO-No. 1029) global UVI and NWP models [ E ] spectral irradiance Revision 2, 2008; 136 pp. (WMO/TD-No. 1454) October 2008 Price: CHF 25 [ E ] (WMO/TD-No. 1485) 2008; ii + 61 pp. [ E ] Regional Price: CHF 30 2008; iii + 25 pp. Association II (Asia), Price: CHF 30 14th session — IGACO-ozone Abridged final report and UV radiation 14th WMO/ with resolutions implementation plan IAEA Meeting of (WMO-No. 1037) (WMO/TD-No. 1465) Experts on Carbon [ A - C- E - F - R - S ] [ E ] Dioxide, Other 2009; vi + 145 pp. 2009; iii + 41 pp. Greenhouse Gases Price: CHF 16 Price: CHF 30 and Related Tracers Measurement Secure and Operations Techniques sustainable living handbook—Ozone (WMO/TD-No. 1487) (WMO-No. 1034) observations [ E ] [ E - R ] (F - S with a Dobson 2009; xi + 145 pp. in preparation) spectrophotometer Price: CHF 30 2008; 101 pp. (WMO/TD-No. 1469) Price: CHF 42 [ E ] World Climate 2008; vii + 85 pp. Conference-3 State of the Price: CHF 30 Third climate in 2007 Announcement (WMO-No. 1036) Climate observations and climate [ A - C- E - F - R - S ] [ E ] data management Free copy on request: 2009; xii + 179 pp. guidelines [email protected] Price: CHF 78 (WMO/TD-No. 1481) [ E ] 2009; CD-ROM World Climate Price: CHF 30 Conference-3 Weather forecasting Better climate for soaring flight The potential role information for a (WMO-No. 1038) of WMO in space better future Technical Note weather No. 1—Benefits to No. 203 (WMO/TD-No. 1482) society [ E ] [ E ] No. 2—Focus on 2009; iv + 65 pp. 2008; iii + 25 pp. Africa Price: CHF 25 Price: CHF 30 [ E/F/S multilingual ] Free copy on request: WMO statement Status of the [email protected] on the status availability and use of the global of satellite data and climate in 2008 products by WMO (WMO-No. 1039) Members [ E - F - S] for the period 2009; 12 pp. 2006–2007 Price: CHF 15 (WMO/TD-No. 1483) [ E ] 2008; ii + 42 pp. Price: CHF 30

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 219 New books received

Monsoon Prediction Cloud and Global Warming: Precipitation The complete Microphysics briefing Principles and Parameterizations

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220 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Calendar

Date Title Place

13–15 July YOTC (Year of Tropical Convection) Implementation Planning Meeting Honolulu, USA 20–22 July Task Team on Updating the GCOS Implementation Plan Geneva 20–23 July CBS Expert Team on Modelling of Atmospheric Transport for Non-nuclear Emergency Toulouse, France Response Activities 21–24 July Planning Meeting on Heat-Health Warning Systems Shanghai, China 22-31 July The 9th Typhoon Operational Forecasting Training (co-sponsored) Tokyo, Japan 27 July–7 August Targeted Training Activity: Predictability of Weather and Climate — “Theory and Trieste, Italy Applications to Intra-seasonal Variability” and South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (co-sponsored) 24–26 August The 24th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF-24) (co-sponsored) Nairobi, Kenya 24–28 August 6th International Scientific Conference on GEWEX Melbourne, Australia 31 August– World Climate Conference-3 (WCC-3) Geneva 4 September 31 August– 4th session of the Reduced Joint Meeting of the CIMO Expert Team on Upper-Air Yangjiang, China 4 September Systems Intercomparisons and 4th International Organizing Committee on Upper-Air Systems Intercomparisons 31 August– RA III and RA IV Iberoamerican Countries Attendance to the WCC-3 Geneva 4 September 6–12 September 8th IAHS Scientific Assembly and 37th IAH Congress (co-sponsored) Hyderabad, India 16–17 September WMO Regional Seminar on the implementation of the RA VI Strategic Plan Brussels, Belgium 17–18 September 40th session of IPCC Bureau Geneva 18–24 September 15th session of Regional Association VI (Europe) Brussels, Belgium 21–25 September CAeM Management Group Geneva 28 September– CBS Expert Team on Ensemble Prediction Systems (ET-EPS) Exeter, United Kingdom 2 October 28 September– 25th session of the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel and 29th session of the Argos Paris, France 3 October Joint Tariff Agreement 5–9 October 5th WMO International Symposium on Data Assimilation Melbourne, Australia 5–9 October Training Workshop on GUAN Upper-Air Observations for RA II (Asia) New Delhi, India 12–16 October ECMWF Training Course for WMO Members (co-sponsored) Reading, United Kingdom 15–16 October 2nd Meeting of Joint Steering Group for the IODE Ocean Data Portal and the WIGOS Ostend, Belgium Pilot Project for JCOMM 4–11 November JCOMM-III Marrakech, Morocco 10–13 November Regional Workshop on Climate Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Variability: Beijing, China Implementation of Climate Watch System in RA II with focus on monsoon affected areas 16–17 November Commission for Atmospheric Sciences Technical Conference Incheon, Republic of Korea 18–25 November Commission for Atmospheric Sciences - 15th session Incheon, Republic of Korea 24–28 November International Conference on Nurturing Arid Zones for People and the Environment: Jodhpur, India Issues and Agenda for the 21st Century (co-sponsored)

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 221 The World Meteorological Organization

WMO is a specialized agency of the Services serving in an individual capac- G.P. Ayers (Australia)* United Nations. Its purposes are: ity; it meets once a year to supervise the O.M.L. Bechir (Mauritania) programmes approved by Congress. Y. Boodhoo (Mauritius) • To facilitate worldwide cooperation S.A. Bukhari (Saudi Arabia) in the establishment of networks of F. Cadarso González (Spain) stations for the making of mete- The six regional associations M. Capaldo (Italy) orological observations as well as are each composed of Members whose B.-S. Chun (Republic of Korea)* hydrological and other geophysical task it is to coordinate meteorologi- H.H. Ciappesoni (Argentina) observations related to meteorol- cal, hydrological and related activities W. Gamarra Molina (Peru) ogy, and to promote the establish- within their respective Regions. D. Grimes (Canada) ment and maintenance of centres S.W.B. Harijono (Ms) (Indonesia) charged with the provision of mete- J.L Hayes (USA)* orological and related services; The eight technical commissions J. Hirst (United Kingdom)* • To promote the establishment and are composed of experts designated by F. Jacq (France)* maintenance of systems for the Members and are responsible for study- W. Kusch (Germany) rapid exchange of meteorological ing meteorological and hydrological L. Makuleni (Ms) (South Africa) and related information; operational systems, applications and J.R. Mukabana (Kenya) • To promote standardization of research. M. Ostojski (Poland) meteorological and related obser- M.M. Rosengaus vations and to ensure the uniform Moskinsky (Mexico) publication of observations and Executive Council K. Sakurai (Japan)* statistics; President P. Taalas (Finland)* • To further the application of mete- A.I. Bedritsky (Russian Federation) A. Tyagi (India)* orology to aviation, shipping, water First Vice-President F. Uirab (Namibia) problems, agriculture and other A.M. Noorian (Islamic Republic of Iran) K.S. Yap (Malaysia) human activities; Second Vice-President G. Zheng (China) • To promote activities in opera- T.W. Sutherland (British Caribbean * acting tional hydrology and to further Territories) close cooperation between Third Vice-President Meteorological and Hydrological A.D. Moura (Brazil) Presidents of technical Services; commissions • To encourage research and training Ex officio members of the Executive Aeronautical Meteorology in meteorology and, as appropri- C. McLeod Council (presidents of regional ate, in related fields, and to assist Agricultural Meteorology associations) in coordinating the international J. Salinger aspects of such research and Africa (Region I) Atmospheric Sciences training. M.L. Bah (Guinea) M. Béland Asia (Region II) Basic Systems V. Chub (Uzbekistan) F.R. Branski The World Meteorological South America (Region III) Climatology Congress R.J. Viñas García (Venezuela) P. Bessemoulin is the supreme body of the North America, Central America and Hydrology Organization. It brings together dele- the Caribbean (Region IV) B. Stewart gates of all Members once every four A.W. Rolle (Bahamas) Instruments and Methods of years to determine general policies for South-West Pacific (Region V) Observation the fulfilment of the purposes of the A. Ngari (Cook Islands) J. Nash Organization. Europe (Region VI) Oceanography and Marine D.K. Keuerleber-Burk (Switzerland) Meteorology P. Dexter and J.-L. Fellous The Executive Council Elected members of the Executive Council is composed of 37 directors of National M.A. Abbas (Egypt) Meteorological or Hydrometeorological A.C. Anuforom (Nigeria)*

222 | WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 Index WMO Bulletin 58 (2009)

Feature articles Obituaries

Addressing climate information needs at the regional Bobinsky, Eric...... 123 level: the CORDEX framework ...... 175 Bushby, Margaret (nee Atkins) ...... 210 Air-quality management and weather prediction Cressman, George...... 125 during the 2008 Beijing Olympics ...... 31 Potter, Kenneth ...... 70 Air quality, weather and climate in Mexico City ...... 48 Carbonaceous aerosol, The—a remaining challenge 54 Food security under changing climate ...... 205 News from the Secretariat Global atmosphere: greenhouse gases and urban pollution, The ...... 16 History of climate activities, A ...... 141 Recent WMO publications ...... 75, 132, 199, 219 Impacts of atmospheric deposition to the ocean on Staff matters ...... 74, 131, 198, 217 marine ecosystems and climate, The ...... 61 Visits of the Secretary-General...... 71, 129, 195, 214 Climate risk management in western South America: implementing a successful information system .... 188 Reviews Implications of climate change for air quality ...... 10 Lessons and experience in the use of seasonal prediction products in the Greater Horn of Africa 184 The Asian Monsoon ...... 133 Message from the Secretary-General on the Satellite Meteorology ...... 134 occasion of World Meteorological Day 2009 ...... 4 Meteorological services to aviation ...... 94 Meteorology and marine transportation ...... 111 Meteorology for travellers ...... 104 Possible influences of air pollution, dust- and sandstorms on the Indian monsoon ...... 22 Water and climate: issues, examples and potential in the context of hydrological prediction ...... 197 Weather and climate change implications for surface transportation ...... 84 Weather, climate and the air we breather (Message from the Secretary-General on the occasion of World Meteorological Day 2009) ...... 4 Weather monitoring and forecasting services for provincial highways and railways in China ...... 118 WMO research and development activities in air quality, weather and climate to benefit Africa ...... 41 World Climate Conference-3 ...... 8, 82 World Climate Conference-3: towards a Global Framework for Climate Services ...... 162 World Climate Research Programme: achievements, activities and challenges...... 151

WMO Bulletin 58 (3) - July 2009 | 223 Solutions for Precise Measurement of Solar Radiation and Atmospheric Properties

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A history of climate activities 141

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World Meteorological Organization

7bis, avenue de la Paix - Case postale 2300 - CH-1211 Geneva 2 - Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 81 11 - Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 81 81 E-mail: [email protected] - Website: www.wmo.int

Climate information in Water and climate: issues, examples ISSN 0042-9767 decision-making in the Greater and potential in the context of Food security under Horn of Africa 184 hydrological prediction 197 a changing climate 205