THE WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME ACCOMPLISHMENT REPORT Foreword Past successes for future progress climate/Earth system research, international science-based policy assessments, such We are pleased to share with you this as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate achievement report that captures the Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, progress made by the World Climate Research international adaptation planning and risk- Programme (WCRP)* and its Core Projects management studies, water-resources and since publication of the previous report in food-production analysis and assessments 2009. During this period, the WCRP leadership and evaluation of alternative energy and and network of affiliate researchers focused transportation planning, to name but a few. their efforts on: (a) coordinating international climate research, modelling and prediction in For the first time, these activities extend support of the priorities identified by WCRP the range of climate simulations and sponsors and stakeholders; (b) developing resulting information from centennial to a future research strategy and priorities decadal and seasonal timescales, and from in response to the rapidly emerging needs global to regional level to meet the needs of for science-based climate information for decision-makers dealing with climate-risk decision-making, in close consultation management, adaptation planning and impacts with the international science community; and vulnerabilities assessment. WCRP is also (c) participating actively in major international facilitating major efforts with its partner initiatives such as Future Earth: Research national and international organizations to for Global Sustainability (ICSU); the Global evaluate these products based on past and Framework for Climate Services (WMO) and present observational records in order to the Integrated Framework for Sustained build greater confidence in future projections. Ocean Observations (UNESCO-IOC), to assist in identifying the required observations, A major WCRP focus during this period modelling and research priorities for the was on understanding the characteristics ensuing decade; and (d) establishing a vigorous of extreme weather/climate events, with capacity-development initiative to train the emphasis on observations, research and next generation of scientists and research modelling for developing near-real-time networks at the global and regional levels. detection of such events and attribution of their causes to mitigate and/or ameliorate The scientific excellence and objectivity their impacts on people, ecosystems and promoted by WCRP during the past three the world economy. Some notable activities decades, the extensive network of international include international coordination of scientists affiliated with its four Core Projects observations, research and modelling of: and WCRP’s unique contributions to the field (a) meteorological and hydrological droughts of climate science are the hallmarks of WCRP and establishment of an international drought that are also expected in the future. information portal for the global sharing of available knowledge and best practices; This report highlights the progress made in (b) regional sea-level change and impacts international coordination by WCRP and in on coastal systems and communities; and cooperation with its sister programmes in (c) expanding the development of climate/ developing high-quality, climate-data records, weather extreme indices to include factors especially from space-based observing such as precipitation and temperature for systems, developing a comprehensive set of use in agricultural practices and water- model simulations of centennial and decadal resources management. Earth/climate system projections, and coordinating major international reanalysis WCRP organized a major Open Science activities worldwide. These efforts together will Conference (OSC) on the occasion of its provide, for the first time, an unprecedented 30th anniversary in October 2011 to assess volume of data and information to be used in the current state of knowledge of climate

* WCRP is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council for Science (ICSU) 2 and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). Foreword WCRP

variability and change; consult with the scientists and decision-makers who would be international community of experts to identify able to pursue and promote the use of actionable the most urgent scientific issues and research climate information. They stated that, for challenges; and to ascertain how WCRP can WCRP to be successful, it must make capacity best facilitate the research and partnerships development a major focus and an integral required to make greater progress in the part of every activity that WCRP sponsors. This seamless prediction of the Earth’s climate report highlights some early statistics on the system across space- and timescales during greater engagement of students and early- the coming decades. The OSC confirmed that career scientists in WCRP activities during the WCRP focus on prediction of the Earth’s the past two years. climate system and the role of human beings remain valid objectives today, along with the The general consensus among OSC participants WCRP strategic priority of an enhanced focus was that the WCRP and its affiliate network on climate research that is of direct value and of international scientists and projects must benefit to society. The overall theme of the continue to provide the scientific foundation Conference was “Climate science in service for understanding and predicting the Earth’s to society” to allow a more effective dialogue climate system, but they must also play a between climate information and knowledge major role in providing the resulting knowledge developers (i.e. the research community) and and information in ways that yield practical the decision-makers wrestling with difficult solutions to the complex and interrelated adaptation, mitigation and risk-management challenges required to ensure a sustainable issues. The outcomes of the presentations and Earth for future generations. The scientific discussions of the Conference are being used grand challenges identified in the last section to identify the research priorities for WCRP of this report capture the spirit of “actionable” and its four major international projects in climate research that WCRP will be facilitating. the ensuing decades. WCRP and its leaders stand ready to support A major emerging theme from the Conference the research community in pursuing the was the need for “actionable” science. While challenges and opportunities identified during decision-makers – including water providers, the Conference and to provide climate science farmers, insurance companies, oil exploration in service to society in the ensuing decades. We companies and many more – need climate and do hope you enjoy reading this accomplishment other scientific information to guide decisions, report and will provide us with your feedback there is often a mismatch between the scientific on how best WCRP can continue to facilitate data available and the information needed. international climate/Earth system research The issues and concerns confronting both in service to society. the public and decision-makers are complex, and addressing them requires a holistic and solution-based approach. There is a need for “symbiotic” relationships between providers and users of climate information to ensure that “actionable” (timely, accessible and easy-to-understand) climate information is developed and used effectively. Jargon-free and understandable explanations are needed to explain uncertainties and ensure the best and most appropriate use of the science-based information by decision-makers.

OSC participants also emphasized the need for Ghassem R. Asrar, Antonio J. Busalacchi, training and developing the next generation of Director Chair

3 WCRP 1. Programme overview

Major Regional scientific climate studies initiatives and results

p. 12 p. 26

Analysis Contributions of climate of WCRP system Core Projects observations

p. 34 p. 40

Climate Capacity information development for decision- makers

p. 56 p. 60

Partnerships Future plan and are key to priorities success

p. 64 p. 76

4 1. Programme overview

1.1 Science in support of societal needs climate. These activities represent a major contribution of WCRP to the Over the past 30 years, WCRP (www.wcrp- United Nations Framework Convention climate.org) has greatly contributed to on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and humankind’s ability to understand and predict IPCC assessments. They enable the climate through the international coordination development of mitigation, adaptation of climate research, modelling and prediction. and climate risk-management Today, there is an unprecedented demand in strategies; many socio-economic sectors for relevant climate information. WCRP is taking the • Atmospheric chemistry and climate – lead in helping the global climate research a coordinated effort to better community create a scientific foundation understand and represent in models for meeting this demand. how atmospheric composition affects, and is affected by, climate change – WCRP provides the international forum to and how they both interact with align the efforts of thousands of climate atmospheric pollution; scientists worldwide towards determining climate predictability and human impact • Sea-level rise – a multi-disciplinary study on climate. The focus is on producing the involving oceanographers, glaci­ol­ogists best possible climate- and hydrologists, o b s e r v i n g n e t wo r k s , Today, there is an unprecedented aimed at reducing models and data analysis demand in many socio-economic uncertainties in and making these tools t h e e s t i m a t e s and resulting climate sectors for relevant climate infor- o f a l l f a c t o r s information products mation. WCRP is taking the lead c o n t r i b u t i n g available for the service in helping the global climate t o s e a - l e v e l of global society. research community create a v a r i a b i l i t y a n d scientific foundation for meeting c h a n g e a n d T h e WC R P S t ra t e g i c this demand. assessing risks Framework defines the of accelerated sea- ultimate objective of level rise due to WCRP as facilitating the analysis and change in the major ice sheets; prediction of the Earth’s climate system variability and change for use in an increasing • Climate extremes – a research, range of practical applications of direct modelling and attribution initiative relevance, benefit and value to society. To to study the phenomena that make meet its objectives, WCRP has identified society so vulnerable to changes several high-priority areas of scientific resulting from the enhanced magnitude, investigation that would lead to deliverables frequency and severity of extreme of direct benefits to practitioners and climate conditions, such as droughts, decision-makers: floods and heatwaves, in a warmer world; • Anthropogenic climate change – detection, attribution and prediction • Seasonal climate predictions – based of the impact of human activities on on new observations and improved 5 WCRP 1. Programme overview

models. These collective efforts October 2011 (http://conference2011.wcrp- of major prediction centres aim to climate.org/) reported on the tremendous improve the skill of predictions for progress in climate science that has been months to seasons ahead, offering made in recent years. Based on scientific significant benefits to many sectors papers, presentations and discussions, of the global economy; the following scientific priorities emerged from the Conference: • Decadal climate predictability – research to assess the factors leading to the • The need for prediction of the Earth predictability of climate on decadal system, bridging the physical climate timescales, which are critical for system with biogeochemistry and the investment in planning, developing and socio-economic and humanity sciences, operating major national and global in a programme such as ICSU’s Future infrastructure; Earth: Research for Global Sustainability;

• Monsoon prediction – building on the • Capitalizing on the opportunity provided multiple regional studies that WCRP by new satellite observations to make a supports with its partners around the major leap in the understanding of clouds world. The global aim is to consolidate and aerosols and their contributions the knowledge of monsoon systems in to climate sensitivity; order to improve prediction of their onset, breaks and overall intensity and • The need for skillful climate information to assess the impacts of a changing on regional scales for the Global climate. Framework for Climate Services (GFCS);

Progress on these topics is discussed in • The importance of quantifying true the following section 2. uncertainty in climate predictions;

Under the theme “Climate research in • Defining the challenges and opportunities service to society”, the WCRP OSC in involved in predicting how the forced

Plenary session at the WCRP Open Science Conference, Denver, USA, 2011

6 1. Programme overview WCRP

anthropogenic component of climate Spring (USA) and Zurich (Switzerland), change will modify the natural modes respectively. In turn, these project offices of climate variability over the coming have a network of supporting activities/ decades; offices in Africa, Asia, South and North America and Europe. They work closely • The increasing importance of establishing with the Joint Planning Staff (JPS) for the predictability of polar climate, with WCRP based in Geneva (Switzerland). The the possible opening-up of the Arctic and work of the Projects is organized through the importance of various initiatives and international policy The powerful combination of experiments and their for commercial observations and models is key respective scientific s h i p p i n g a n d advisory committees the extraction of to our ability to provide science- and workshops. natural resources; based climate information for decision-makers. Some examples of • The need to better past Core Projects understand the causes of extreme events and their accomplishments include and to conduct attribution studies in the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere near-real-time; project, which developed the foundations for prediction of El Niño as a foundation • Tackling the challenges to providing for seasonal climate prediction; the improved predictions of future regional World Ocean Circulation Experiment, sea-level change; which provided the first consistent picture of the global ocean circulation; • The need to train and empower the and the Arctic Climate System Study, next generation of climate scientists. which demonstrated the potential for intensified climate warming in northern 1.2 WCRP Core Projects high latitudes.

Understanding and predicting climate variability and change require comprehensive 1.3 Unifying themes in climate research: investigation of all major components of observations and models the Earth/climate system (atmosphere, oceans, land and cryosphere) and their Observations are the foundation for interactions. WCRP supports these understanding the past and present state studies through the activities of its four of Earth’s climate system. Numerical Core Projects: models are fundamental tools for predicting and projecting future climate conditions. • Climate and Cryosphere (CliC); The powerful combination of observations • Climate Variability and Predictability and models is key to our ability to provide (CLIVAR); science-based climate information for • Global Energy and Water Cycle decision-makers. WCRP depends on Experiment (GEWEX); sister programmes such as the Global • Stratospheric Processes and their Climate Observing System (GCOS) and its Role in Climate (SPARC). affiliate networks to obtain, preserve and develop the Earth observing networks. The international offices of these Core WCRP co-sponsors with GCOS a wide Projects are located in Tromsø (Norway), range of projects and activities aiming Southampton (United Kingdom), Silver to achieve these objectives. 7 WCRP 1. Programme overview

Climate observations (courtesy of GCOS)

WCRP observation activities are coordinated paleoclimate data, WDAC will ensure by the recently established WCRP Data cooperation with GCOS and other observing Advisory Council (WDAC). In addition to programmes on matters such as evaluating promoting the effective use of observations and maintaining the Essential Climate with models and addressing issues Variables (ECVs). related to the coordinated development of data assimilation, reanalysis, Observing Climate models vary from detailed and System Sensitivity Experiments, and complex representation of global and 8 1. Programme overview WCRP

regional climate or Earth system processes and regional climate simulations. Most to more idealized climate conditions. climate services and related information They are used in a wide range of research used for policy decisions and practical and applications, including process applications are based largely on the studies, data assimilation and analysis, output of such models. attribution, historical and paleoclimate simulation, seasonal-to-interannual climate WCRP modelling activities are coordinated prediction, future climate projections by the recently established WCRP Modelling 9 WCRP 1. Programme overview

Advisory Council (WMAC). WMAC ensures continuation and expansion of global cooperation with the main WCRP partners environmental monitoring. and coordination among the WCRP modelling and prediction groups: WCRP Projects also identify and facilitate the gathering, processing and distribution • The Working Group on Coupled Modelling of observations (e.g. of clouds, radiation (WGCM) organizes coordinated climate and precipitation) that are required for model intercomparisons to address understanding key climate processes. compelling science questions for the These observations may ultimately form community; these simulations are also the basis for long-term climate records. made available for the assessment process of the IPCC; 1.4 Developing a future network of climate scientists • The Working Group on Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) is To accomplish its mission, WCRP engages developing a programme of numerical the international Earth/climate system experimentation for seasonal-to- science community and forges strategic interannual variability and predictability, partnerships at national and international paying special attention to assessing levels to ensure a vibrant workforce which will a n d i m p ro v i n g guide the Programme predictions. WGSIP WCRP is currently undertaking a and support its goal collaborates with wide range of education, training and objectives. WGCM in studies and capacity-development activi- of decadal climate We recognize that prediction; ties and is planning to strengthen WCRP’s long-term these efforts further. success depends on the • T h e W o r k i n g continued engagement Group on Numerical Experimentation of the international science community, (WGNE), co-sponsored with the especially in developing nations and WMO Commission for Atmospheric regions, through strategic partnerships Sciences, focuses largely on the with WCRP sponsors (ICSU, IOC and WMO) improvement of atmospheric models and sister organizations such as the Global and cooperates with WGCM and Change System for Analysis, Research WGSIP on process studies and shared and Training (START), the Asia-Pacific interest in improving atmospheric Network for Global Change Research models. (APN), the International American Institute (IAI) and others. WCRP plays a major role in supporting the development of new climate information WCRP is currently undertaking a wide systems to assist in assessing vulnerability, range of education, training and capacity- devising coping strategies, determining development activities and plans to possible impacts and planning for future strengthen these efforts further by changes. A current suite of climate focusing on: observations and models is resulting in a significant amount of data and information. • Facilitating and coordinating climate Research on, and development of, Earth research, modelling, analysis and observing systems, models and field prediction to provide the required experiments comprise an intrinsic part science-based climate information of WCRP activities and contribute to the to decision-makers; 10 1. Programme overview WCRP

• Assisting the research community active and gain experience in the and institutions of higher learning in analysis and interpretation of climate education, training and development information to serve the needs of of next-generation climate scientists; decision-makers and experts who are pursuing climate-adaptation and • Providing greater opportunities for risk-management planning; early-career scientists, especially and those from developing regions, to become more active in global, regional • Establishing an effective dialogue and national climate research and with decision-makers, politicians applications; and those responsible for socio- economic development by finding a • Empowering the young generation common language for sharing the of climate scientists to be more latest knowledge-based information.

Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania

ECS 16 67 38 52 11

Students 9 42 17 35 7

Total 25 109 55 87 18

WCRP support for students and early-career scientists (ECS) in 2011-2012

Four maps of the northern hemisphere demonstrate the temperature trend, with average surface temperature for: top left, 1919; top right, 2002; bottom left, 2061; and bottom right, 2099; centre: the global average as a function of time. The computations were based on observed temperature (pre-2000) and a climate model assuming a continued high rate of greenhouse-gas emission (courtesy of Earth System Grid Federation).

Organization of the WCRP

11 WCRP 2. Major scientific initiatives and results

Interdisciplinary research encompassing the Earth’s climate system – atmosphere, cryosphere, land and ocean – and their interactions: WCRP, through its four Core Projects (CliC, CLIVAR, GEWEX and SPARC), covers the components of the climate system.

12 2. Major scientific initiatives and results WCRP 2. Major scientific initiatives and results 2.1 Improving climate projections Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) experiments and emission-driven Earth System Model More than 20 modelling groups from around (ESM) experiments - some of those with the world are currently participating in partial coupling to explore sensitivity the WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison of the carbon-cycle feedback. Many Project (CMIP5) that represents the most experiments In CMIP5 explore the impact ambitious multi-model intercomparison of various natural and human-induced and analysis project ever attempted. WGCM, changes on climate. The paleoclimatic in consultation with the International experiments assess the ability of models Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) to reproduce past climate conditions Analysis Integration and Modelling of to better inform the credibility of the the Earth System (AIMES) project and models’ future climate projections; and a number of other elements of WCRP some experiments investigate the role and the climate research community, is of atmospheric aerosols and chemistry- coordinating the experiments and analysis climate interactions with higher resolution of results from these model simulations. AOGCMs (about 50 km resolution) and even higher resolution (about 25 km) The scope of CMIP5 is much broader than atmosphere-only models. that of the previous intercomparison project (CMIP3) and includes four new From a preliminary analysis of the models representative concentration pathways participating in CMIP5, it emerges that (RCPs) to support developing mitigation some quantities are better simulated, scenarios in addition to the long-term such as the rate of sea-ice loss in the concentration-driven Atmosphere-Ocean Arctic, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning

Surface ocean currents in a model of the ocean circulation in the southern hemisphere. High horizontal resolution (1/6°, right) simulates ocean eddies more realistically than low resolution (1° left).

13 WCRP 2. Major scientific initiatives and results

Circulation that controls both short- and 2.2 Attribution and prediction of extreme long-term climate, and others. CMIP5 events also provides many more capabilities and new types of climate-change information, Unusual or extreme weather and climate- such as carbon-cycle feedback, decadal related events are of great public concern climate predictions and cloud feedback, and interest, yet there are often conflicting to name but a few. messages from scientists about whether

Climate response to aerosol forcings in CMIP5: global mean near-surface temperature anomalies in simulations with all natural and anthropogenic forcings (red line) and with anthropogenic aerosol forcing alone (black line), in one of the CMIP5 models. The shading represents the spread of ensemble members. The observed global mean near-surface temperature anomaly is shown with a blue line (from Boucher et al., 2011).

Carbon dioxide emissions as simulated by a CMIP5 model (HadGEM2-ES) compared with observed emissions for the historical period and those projected for the RCP scenarios (OBS/IAMs) (from Friedlingstein and Jones, 2011)

14 2. Major scientific initiatives and results WCRP

such events can be linked to climate change. of magnitude but also externally driven – This was one of the themes discussed at through human influence on climate – in the WCRP OSC, where the development terms of probability of occurrence. of a carefully conducted analysis of observed weather- and climate-related An annual report “Explaining extreme events could serve as a powerful tool events from a climate perspective” has for identifying the factors contributing been published for the first time in the to the occurrence of Bulletin of the American such events. New scientific results have shown Meteorological Society. examples of where there has It contains a collection New scientific results been an increased risk of extreme of papers that examine have shown examples a number of extreme of where there has weather attributable to human weather events that been an increased risk influence on climate. occurred in 2011. It of extreme weather is intended that such attributable to human influence on reports will regularly accompany the annual climate. For example, new research has State of the Climate that is published reconciled the results of previous studies annually in this journal. by providing scientific explanations concerning the extent to which the 2010 In order to support the development of Russian Federation heatwave could be such assessments, the international attributed to human-induced climate Attribution of Climate-related Events (ACE) change. In fact, the same event can be initiative has been launched to develop both mostly internally generated in terms the science needed to better respond

Overview of research capabilities and information needs and some of the research directions necessary to improve drought-prediction capabilities: users’ needs for drought predictions (pink), current forecast skill (green) and predictability (heavy solid lines). Note the relatively small overlap between the areas of users’ needs and skillful forecasts. The hatched area indicates those combinations of space- and timescales that are deemed fundamentally unpredictable. The text indicates areas of research that could lead to improved skill on the space- and timescales indicated by the thick arrows.

15 WCRP 2. Major scientific initiatives and results Canada Russian Federation Experienced its Experienced its second warmest summer, Western North Pacific fifth warmest year, third behind the record-breaking summer of 2010. typhoon season warmest winter, ninth Near average activity: 25 storms, 14 typhoons warmest spring, warmest United Kingdom summer and 17th warmest After experiencing dry conditions autumn since national during the first three months, the Alaska, USA records began in 1948. remainder of the year was wet, China resulting in the second wettest year Yunnan and south-western Sichuan provinces Anomalously cool conditions on record, behind 2000. Eurasia affected the state during January, experienced severe drought during winter and USA A cold wave affected most of the Eurasian continent from resulting in the coolest January in Nearly two-thirds of the spring. Nearly 9.6 million people were affected the 95-year record for the state. mid-January to mid-February. This was the worst cold in at and over 1 million hectares of cropland damaged. contiguous USA was in Europe least 26 years in central and eastern Europe. More than 650 drought by the end of September. people died due to the frigid conditions. The area from The Palmer Drought Severity Index of Europe experienced an unusually dry spring, leading to extreme drought conditions, North-east China to eastern Inner Mongolia recorded 55 per cent in June was the largest minimum temperatures ranging from -30°C to -40°C. Typhoon Sanba Arctic sea-ice extent percentage since December 1956. impacting crops, water supplies and human The drought resulted in a health. Dryness also contributed to 10 –19 September During its melt season, the Arctic significant wildfires. multi-billion dollar agricultural Maximum winds - 205 km/h - the strongest cyclone reached its lowest sea-ice extent on disaster. record. During its growth season, the globally: Sanba impacted the Philippines, Japan and Arctic reached its ninth lowest Hurricane Sandy the Korean Peninsula, dumping torrential rain and maximum sea-ice extent since records triggering flooding and landslides that affected began in 1979. 22–31 October thousands of people. Maximum winds - 175 km/h: Sandy caused significant damage to infrastructure, roads and thousands of homes across parts of the Eastern North Pacific Caribbean, claiming nearly 80 lives. Sandy Typhoon Bopha also impacted the USA, prompting severe hurricane season floods across the north-east and resulting in 25 November– 9 December Near-average activity: 17 storms, 10 hurricanes more than 130 fatalities. Maximum winds - 185 km/h: Bopha struck the southern Pakistan Philippine island of Mindanao in early December. Bopha Devastating floods was the strongest cyclone to make landfall in the area. impacted Pakistan More than 1 000 residents were killed and nearly 900 Hurricane Carlotta during September. were reported missing. 14–16 June Atlantic hurricanes Over 5 million people were affected, with India Maximum winds - 175 km/h: Carlotta was the easternmost Above-average seasonal activity: more than 460 000 landfalling hurricane in the North Pacific since 1966. 19 storms, 10 hurricanes houses damaged or Rainfall during the destroyed. pre-monsoon Australian cyclone season season was the Western and lowest since 1901. Below-average activity: 7 storms, 3 cyclones El Niño-Southern Oscillation central Africa (ENSO) Many parts of western Africa and North Indian Ocean the Sahel experienced severe ENSO began the year in a cold phase (La Niña), flooding between July and cyclone season transitioning to neutral conditions by April. September. Nearly 3 million people Below-average activity: 2 storms, 0 cyclones were affected. The flooding destroyed farmlands, homes and schools and caused outbreaks of Cyclone Evan cholera and other diseases. Cyclone Anais 9–25 December Maximum winds - 230 km/h: Evan was the Brazil 12–19 October worst tropical cyclone to affect Samoa since Severe drought affected north-eastern Brazil, the Maximum winds - 185 km/h: Anais was the second Val in 1991. Evan is also the costliest tropical worst in 50 years. Over 1 100 towns were affected. earliest tropical cyclone to form so early in the cyclone ever for Samoa. season after Blanche in 1969 and was the first intense cyclone on record for the month of October. Global tropical cyclone activity South-west Indian Ocean Argentina Near-average activity: 84 storms, Cyclones maximum 41 hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones cyclone season Australia Extreme rainfall severely affected Above-average activity: 11 storms, 3 cyclones wind legend Buenos Aires province during August, Australia had near-average rainfall 63 - 118 km/h producing severe flooding. Monthly throughout the year. Western Australia had totals broke historical records in its third driest April–October on record. South-west Pacific 119 - 153 km/h several locations. 154 - 177 km/h Antarctic sea-ice extent cyclone season Fourth largest sea-ice extent during its melt season. Below-average activity: 3 storms, 1 cyclones 178 - 209 km/h During its growth season, the Antarctic sea-ice 210 - 249 km/h extent was the largest since records began in 1979. > 249 km/h

Selected significant climate anomalies and events in 2012 (courtesy of NOAA’s National Climatic Center)

to the demand for timely, objective and (http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/ authoritative explanations of extreme subseasonal/atlas/Extremes.html). This events. See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ activity is supported by the CLIVAR research/climate/climate-monitoring/ project and not only helps to improve our attribution/ace for further details. understanding of past changes in climate extremes but also provides basic datasets One example is the Atlas of Extremes of the for climate model validation and detection Americas, an online atlas of temperature and attribution studies. and precipitation extremes, based on the extreme indices provided by observational Another example is the work of an ad hoc gridded data and reanalysis products group that completed an overview report 16 2. Major scientific initiatives and results WCRP Canada Russian Federation Experienced its Experienced its second warmest summer, Western North Pacific fifth warmest year, third behind the record-breaking summer of 2010. typhoon season warmest winter, ninth Near average activity: 25 storms, 14 typhoons warmest spring, warmest United Kingdom summer and 17th warmest After experiencing dry conditions autumn since national during the first three months, the Alaska, USA records began in 1948. remainder of the year was wet, China resulting in the second wettest year Yunnan and south-western Sichuan provinces Anomalously cool conditions on record, behind 2000. Eurasia affected the state during January, experienced severe drought during winter and USA A cold wave affected most of the Eurasian continent from resulting in the coolest January in Nearly two-thirds of the spring. Nearly 9.6 million people were affected the 95-year record for the state. mid-January to mid-February. This was the worst cold in at and over 1 million hectares of cropland damaged. contiguous USA was in Europe least 26 years in central and eastern Europe. More than 650 drought by the end of September. people died due to the frigid conditions. The area from The Palmer Drought Severity Index of Europe experienced an unusually dry spring, leading to extreme drought conditions, North-east China to eastern Inner Mongolia recorded 55 per cent in June was the largest minimum temperatures ranging from -30°C to -40°C. Typhoon Sanba Arctic sea-ice extent percentage since December 1956. impacting crops, water supplies and human The drought resulted in a health. Dryness also contributed to 10 –19 September During its melt season, the Arctic significant wildfires. multi-billion dollar agricultural Maximum winds - 205 km/h - the strongest cyclone reached its lowest sea-ice extent on disaster. record. During its growth season, the globally: Sanba impacted the Philippines, Japan and Arctic reached its ninth lowest Hurricane Sandy the Korean Peninsula, dumping torrential rain and maximum sea-ice extent since records triggering flooding and landslides that affected began in 1979. 22–31 October thousands of people. Maximum winds - 175 km/h: Sandy caused significant damage to infrastructure, roads and thousands of homes across parts of the Eastern North Pacific Caribbean, claiming nearly 80 lives. Sandy Typhoon Bopha also impacted the USA, prompting severe hurricane season floods across the north-east and resulting in 25 November– 9 December Near-average activity: 17 storms, 10 hurricanes more than 130 fatalities. Maximum winds - 185 km/h: Bopha struck the southern Pakistan Philippine island of Mindanao in early December. Bopha Devastating floods was the strongest cyclone to make landfall in the area. impacted Pakistan More than 1 000 residents were killed and nearly 900 Hurricane Carlotta during September. were reported missing. 14–16 June Atlantic hurricanes Over 5 million people were affected, with India Maximum winds - 175 km/h: Carlotta was the easternmost Above-average seasonal activity: more than 460 000 landfalling hurricane in the North Pacific since 1966. 19 storms, 10 hurricanes houses damaged or Rainfall during the destroyed. pre-monsoon Australian cyclone season season was the Western and lowest since 1901. Below-average activity: 7 storms, 3 cyclones El Niño-Southern Oscillation central Africa (ENSO) Many parts of western Africa and North Indian Ocean the Sahel experienced severe ENSO began the year in a cold phase (La Niña), flooding between July and cyclone season transitioning to neutral conditions by April. September. Nearly 3 million people Below-average activity: 2 storms, 0 cyclones were affected. The flooding destroyed farmlands, homes and schools and caused outbreaks of Cyclone Evan cholera and other diseases. Cyclone Anais 9–25 December Maximum winds - 230 km/h: Evan was the Brazil 12–19 October worst tropical cyclone to affect Samoa since Severe drought affected north-eastern Brazil, the Maximum winds - 185 km/h: Anais was the second Val in 1991. Evan is also the costliest tropical worst in 50 years. Over 1 100 towns were affected. earliest tropical cyclone to form so early in the cyclone ever for Samoa. season after Blanche in 1969 and was the first intense cyclone on record for the month of October. Global tropical cyclone activity South-west Indian Ocean Argentina Near-average activity: 84 storms, Cyclones maximum 41 hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones cyclone season Australia Extreme rainfall severely affected Above-average activity: 11 storms, 3 cyclones wind legend Buenos Aires province during August, Australia had near-average rainfall 63 - 118 km/h producing severe flooding. Monthly throughout the year. Western Australia had totals broke historical records in its third driest April–October on record. South-west Pacific 119 - 153 km/h several locations. 154 - 177 km/h Antarctic sea-ice extent cyclone season Fourth largest sea-ice extent during its melt season. Below-average activity: 3 storms, 1 cyclones 178 - 209 km/h During its growth season, the Antarctic sea-ice 210 - 249 km/h extent was the largest since records began in 1979. > 249 km/h

Selected significant climate anomalies and events in 2012 (courtesy of NOAA’s National Climatic Center)

“Drought predictability and prediction in Three major action items resulted from a changing climate: assessing current the WCRP workshops on this topic: (a) to predictive knowledge and capabilities, develop a drought catalogue; (b) to carry user requirements and research priorities” out coordinated analyses of high impact (http://www.clivar.org/organization/ droughts; and (c) to develop a drought extremes/resources/dig). The report early warning system. The workshop examines current prediction capabilities participants established three subgroups and user needs for drought-related to implement these recommendations. information with the aim of identifying actionable research areas that would These efforts, together with a worldwide benefit from international coordination. survey of user drought information needs 17 WCRP 2. Major scientific initiatives and results

and capabilities are now This initiative is moving for- Fo r t h e f i r s t t i m e , part of the planning for ward by building upon exten- there is a remarkable an experimental global convergence among drought information sive worldwide investments in independent estimates system. This initiative drought monitoring, drought- of rate and magnitude of i s m o v i n g f o r w a rd risk management, drought sea-level change, based b y b u i l d i n g u p o n research and climate-prediction on observational records extensive worldwide capabilities. since the 1970s. Another investments in drought recent observation-based monitoring, drought- finding is enhanced net risk management, drought research and mass loss from the major ice sheets: if it climate-prediction capabilities. continues at recent rates, the contribution of ice sheets to 21st century sea-level 2.3 Regional sea-level variability and rise will be more than from any other change contributing factor (e.g. glaciers).

Analysis and assessment of sea-level To manage the potential risks of sea-level variability and change, especially at changes and develop adaptive measures, the regional level, is a key area of focus it is imperative to know not only the for WCRP. A dedicated WCRP Workshop global mean sea-level value but also its hosted by UNESCO-IOC in Paris in 2010 regional and temporal variations. WCRP reviewed the state-of-the-knowledge in is supporting research on understanding sea-level observations, research and the underlying physical and dynamical modelling in great detail. The outcomes processes that contribute to the patterns of the Workshop helped to formulate and magnitude of sea-level variability sea-level projections of the IPCC Fifth and change on regional scales. These Assessment Report to be published in studies have revealed some patterns of 2013. A monograph entitled “Understanding such variability, showing clearly that, sea-level rise and variability” (edited while sea level is rising on the global by J. Church et al.), resulting from a average, it may be rising more in some previous WCRP-sponsored workshop, regions of the world and falling in others, was published in 2009. owing to the specifics of ocean dynamics and other geophysical processes. Major progress is being made in improving the observing networks and developing Regional sea-level rise increases the risk models capable of capturing essential of coastal flooding, which also depends on processes that contribute to changes in local tides, storm-surges, precipitation the cryosphere, such as and local hydrological ice-sheet, sea-ice and To manage the potential risks of conditions. Predictions glacier dynamics and sea-level changes and develop of regional sea-level changes in snow cover adaptive measures, it is impera- change on decadal to and extent. For example, tive to know not only the glo- centennial timescales s i g n i f i c a n t e f f o r t s that WCRP is enabling are being devoted to bal mean sea-level value but will serve as the core measuring and modelling also its regional and temporal of the future multi- all contributing factors variations. factor coastal zone to sea-level variability assessments which and change using a variety of techniques will inform climate-adaptation and risk- and technologies. management strategies. The outcomes of 18 2. Major scientific initiatives and results WCRP

Observed sea level and the sum of its components (from Church et al., 2011): it is possible to explain quantitatively the observed sea-level rise starting in approximately 1972. The remaining discrepancy for the 1960s is attributed to shortcomings in the available data. the WCRP sea-level studies will serve as be evaluated both in terms of forecast valuable input to future IPCC assessments quality and forecast value, where quality and will, in turn, help to shape WCRP- refers to the technical measurement of coordinated sea-level research for years forecast performance and value relates to come. to the practical benefits achieved through decisions made according to forecast 2.4 Seasonal-to-interannual climate information, usually in conjunction with prediction other information.

A WCRP community-wide assessment Progress in seasonal climate prediction on the state of the science for seasonal depends on improvements in the building climate prediction led to a consensus on blocks of seasonal prediction systems: the some best practices for models, observations producing, using and Progress in seasonal climate and data-assimilation assessing seasonal systems, as well as forecasts with the aim prediction depends on improve- i m p ro v e d f o re c a s t of improving seasonal ments in the building blocks of verification and a more prediction, as well as seasonal prediction systems ... effective transfer of determining the extent information to forecast to which seasonal prediction is possible. users, increasing forecast value. WCRP This assessment pointed to the need is coordinating a multi-model, multi- for a suite of performance metrics institutional set of hindcast experiments – and a common language to be applied the Climate system Historical Forecast systematically for assessing prediction Project (CHFP) – for this purpose. CHFP skill. It was agreed that the skill must aims to explore the untapped sources of 19 WCRP 2. Major scientific initiatives and results

Spatial patterns of sea level from January 1993 to October 2010 (from Cazenave and Remy, 2011)

predictability on seasonal-to-interannual models of the climate system and data timescales arising from interactions and for initialization, as well as of IPCC-class memory associated with all the elements climate models in seasonal prediction of the climate system (atmosphere- mode. They provide a framework for ocean-land-ice). assessing current and planned observing systems and a test bed for integrating These experiments provide a baseline process studies and field campaigns into assessment of current seasonal prediction model improvements with the ultimate capabilities using the best available goal of enhancing forecast skills.

Atmospheric pressure difference at 500 hPa for December-January-February (DJF) 2007/2008 when initialized with observed ice versus climatological ice from: (a) multi-model ensemble; individual model simulations from (b) United Kingdom Met Office; (c) Max Plank Institute; (d) Météo-France; and (e) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. Early results from the CHFP experiment on sea ice suggest that the recent decline in sea ice is contributing to a negative Arctic Oscillation, which would be predictable in seasonal forecast systems (courtesy of Drew Peterson et al.).

20 2. Major scientific initiatives and results WCRP

2.5 Decadal climate predictability predictability which improves in both the experiments multi-model averages and the ensemble averages from single models. For any Near-term climate predictions (also prediction system, a critical question is known as decadal climate predictions) to understand how far ahead the mean were included in CMIP5 in an attempt climate state is predictable on the regional to satisfy a growing demand for climate scale with some useful level of skill. information for several years to a few decades ahead. It is well established The relative importance of the initial conditions that, based on knowledge of the initial in climate prediction is expected to decrease conditions, important aspects of regional for longer forecast time, becoming negligible climate are predictable up to a year ahead. after several decades. After some 15 years, however, skill increases Predictability on this due to the changes timescale is primarily, For any prediction system, a in external forcing, t h o u g h n o t s o le ly , critical question is to under- mainly associated with associated with El Niño- stand how far ahead the mean increasing greenhouse Southern Oscillation climate state is predictable on gases. For example, there (ENSO), and is currently the regional scale with some is predictability in the addressed by seasonal Pacific Ocean, where forecasting. Skillful useful level of skill. a major decadal-scale interannual-to-decadal feature resembles a climate predictions have been achieved slow component of El Niño, often referred by using changes in boundary conditions to as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation such as atmospheric composition and (IPO). IPO shows predictability up to nine solar irradiance. years ahead in so-called “perfect” model simulations, where multiple initialized The type of information that can be ensemble members attempt to predict obtained from the decadal experiments the evolution in time of one of the other have been explored within the framework model ensemble members. of the ENSEMBLES project, funded by the European Union, by using two types There is also growing evidence that of climate forecasts: a multi-model variability in the stratosphere has a (mostly with full initialization) and a significant impact on surface climate. perturbed-parameter ensemble with During boreal winter, it is likely that explicit initialization. models with a well-resolved stratosphere will have an improved representation Both approaches have forecast skill of blocking and cold air outbreaks over over large regions – especially over the Europe, owing to the simulation of realistic tropical oceans and North Atlantic – but stratospheric sudden warming events in also over large continental areas. Most of the stratosphere-resolving models. In the prediction skill on temperature is due addition, stratospheric changes induced to external forcing, while improvements by anthropogenic climate change may in prediction skill due to initialization contribute substantially to changes in appear mostly over the North Atlantic storm tracks, sea-level pressure and and the subtropical Pacific. Atlantic precipitation. Multi-decadal Variability, associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Recent advances in the knowledge of how Circulation (AMOC), presents multi-year stratospheric representation operates in 21 WCRP 2. Major scientific initiatives and results

21st century prediction of sea-surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific region and consequent impacts on North American and Australian precipitation in a perfect-model exercise to demonstrate possible predictability of those features with an initialized AOGCM. The top four panels show simulation of SST anomalies for the reference 19-year periods centred on (a) 2010 and (c) 2020). The regression patterns for the first three empirical orthogonal functions are summed to construct the predicted SST anomaly patterns for the 19-year periods centred on (b) 2010 and (d) 2020). The bottom four panels show an application of the Pacific SST perfect-model predictions to North American and Australian precipitation: (a) reference simulations; and (b) predictions (from Meehl et al., 2010).

climate models (see SPARC Chemistry- model component does not reach the Climate Model Validation, CCMVal-2, stratopause. http://www.sparc-climate.org/activities/ ccm-validation/) have led to a number of About 10 modelling groups are carrying climate modelling groups undertaking out analyses of the CMIP5 simulations CMIP5 experiments with models that with high-top models and comparing include a well-resolved stratosphere, these with low-top model simulations. the so-called “high-top models”. Low-top models may provide reasonable results for the modelled mean climate High-top models currently refer to but the low top reduces the modelled coupled AOGCMs or their extension to stratospheric variability and therefore ESMs, whose atmospheric model extends its downward influence. Several hindcast above the stratopause. Consequently, model-based datasets are now available the label “low-top” is now applied to in the CHFP database that include the any AOGCM/ESM whose atmospheric role of the stratosphere. 22 2. Major scientific initiatives and results WCRP

2.6 Atmospheric chemistry and climate nuclei (CCN). Further, clouds can modify connection aerosols, their optical properties, their size distributions and their ability to act as With focus on stratospheric ozone, the impact CCN. The indirect effect, which is a strong of climate change on atmospheric chemistry function of chemical and physical properties and, conversely, the impact of changes in of aerosols, can perturb clouds and the atmospheric chemistry and composition hydrological cycle, two pivotal components on climate have been highlighted in the of the climate system. Stratospheric recent WMO/United Nations Environment aerosols greatly alter the chemistry in Programme (UNEP) report Scientific that region and lead to such spectacular Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010. Major changes as the Antarctic ozone hole, with contributions to this assessment derive major consequences for global climate. from SPARC’s activity in chemistry-climate model validation (http:// A clear understanding www.sparc-climate.org/ A clear understanding of the of the processes that activities/ccm-validation/) processes that connect emis- co n n e c t e m i ss i o n s efforts. sions (sources, precursors) to (sources, precursors) abundances and the processes to a b u n d a n ce s a n d According to the IPCC t h e p ro ce ss e s t h a t (2007), methane, ozone that connect the abundances to connect the abundances and halocarbons are the climate forcings is essential for to climate forcings greenhouse gases that an accurate prediction of future i s e ss e n t i a l fo r a n directly follow carbon climate ... accurate prediction dioxide in terms of of future climate and strongest increase in radiative forcing an assessment of the sensitivity of the owing to anthropogenic activities since climate system and its variations as a the industrial revolution. Changes in result of these processes. tropospheric composition alter stratospheric composition via changes in the input to the 2.7 Monsoon research and prediction stratosphere and, conversely, changes in the stratosphere affect the troposphere Monsoon rainfall is the life-blood of more via changes in the input of ozone from the than half the world’s population, for stratosphere and also changes in ultraviolet whom agriculture is the main source of radiation. subsistence. WCRP coordinates research worldwide to enhance understanding of Aerosols are other climate-forcing agents. monsoonal systems, improve accuracy Effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the of their prediction and decipher how climate may offset part of the increased climate change may affect them. radiative forcing of greenhouse gases due to their cooling effect. Aerosols can The WCRP goal of producing more reliable perturb atmospheric radiation through a models and quantifying the uncertainty direct effect of scattering and absorption in their climate-change projections is of radiation. The effects of aerosols depend enabled by international field experiments. critically on their chemical composition For example, observational campaigns, and mixing state. such as the WCRP-sponsored Asian Monsoon Years (AMY, 2007-2012) and the Aerosols can also have an indirect effect via GEWEX/Coordinated Energy and Water interaction with clouds (water, ice and cirrus Cycle Observations project have archived clouds) by acting as cloud condensation both in situ and satellite observations 23 WCRP 2. Major scientific initiatives and results

Past and future changes in ozone and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are based on chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, which allow a consistent, fully coupled treatment of chemistry and climate. Regional and global projections of ozone and ODSs are shown for the period 1960–2010, referenced to 1960 values. Total ozone decreased after 1960 as stratospheric chlorine and bromine concentrations, expressed in equivalent stratospheric chlorine (ESC), steadily increased. ESC values have peaked and are now in a slow decline, reflecting the successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol (1987) and its subsequent amendments. Correspondingly, all the projections show maximum total ozone depletion around year 2000, shortly after which the highest abundances of ESC had been encountered. Thereafter, total ozone increases as ESC slowly declines, except in the tropics. (DU = Dobson units)

that are used to improve model physics predictions of monsoons. Other approaches and understand interactions that affect have included observational, numerical monsoon variability. and process studies, prediction and predictability experiments, coordinated Additionally, new observational and model evaluation and interaction with the modelling campaigns, such as Dynamics of Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) Assessment and Prediction for Asia. and Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC), Furthermore, efforts are underway seek to improve our understanding and to improve the modelling of aerosols, representation of tropical convection in especially those associated with the the models, including monsoon active- Asian Brown Cloud: these are important break cycles, to improve medium-range for simulating the monsoons because (10-30 days) and seasonal (~90 days) they have a significant impact on the 24 2. Major scientific initiatives and results WCRP

radiative heating of the atmosphere intraseasonal variability. Interannual and can thus affect the strength of the variability of the mean monsoon rainfall hydrological cycle. is relatively low (~10% of the mean) but seasonal variations of the monsoon Through the synthesis have a profound impact o f m o d e l l i n g a n d WCRP coordinates research o n a g r i c u l t u re a n d o b s e r v a t i o n s , t h e worldwide to enhance under- freshwater availability scientific community standing of monsoonal systems, in some regions of the i s p o i s e d t o m a k e improve accuracy of their pre- world. Monsoon failure substantial advances (or extreme drought) in understanding and diction and decipher how cli- is often a result of ultimately predicting mate change may affect them. extended intraseasonal monsoons to manage m o n s o o n b r e a k s . and mitigate their adverse impacts on Monsoon intraseasonal variability is not life, property, agriculture and water currently well-simulated or predicted resources in a timely and effective in climate models, especially those manner. used in seasonal climate prediction. Skill assessment of predicting both CLIVAR, for example, sponsored a boreal summer and austral summer hindcast experiment to investigate intraseasonal monsoon variability is boreal summer monsoons and their currently underway.

June-September precipitation (mm/day) climatology: (a) observed and (b) simulated from the CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM); and (c)­ and (d) two models that show the range of performance. The CMIP5 MMM outperforms all the individual models (courtesy of K. Sperber).

25 WCRP 3. Regional climate studies

Regional climate information for decision-makers: climate models applied over a limited area can provide information on much smaller scales, supporting regional impact and adaptation assessment and planning, which is vital in many vulnerable areas of the world (courtesy of SMHI).

26 3. Regional climate studies The provision of climate information on resolution climate-change information regional to local scales is an important with documented uncertainties. requirement to support decision-making in response to potential climate change. The framework is facilitating the evaluation Such information is needed to assess the and, where possible, the improvement of impacts of climate variability and change regional climate downscaling techniques on human and natural systems, enabling for use in many regions worldwide, and the development of suitable adaptation to support the vulnerability, impact and and risk-management strategies at the adaptation analyses and assessments. regional to local level. Many CORDEX regions are already self- 3.1 Coordinated Regional Downscaling organizing and are developing matrices Experiment of regional climate change projections. In a number of regions, however, one Despite recent advances in the horizontal example being Africa, access to reliable resolution of most global climate models, regional climate-change information there are still limitations in their ability is limited. It is in these regions that to represent important the greatest benefits local forcing features, The goal of CORDEX is to fos- from the collaboration s u c h a s c o m p l e x ter an international coordinated d e v e lo p e d t h ro u g h topography, land- effort to produce improved CORDEX are anticipated. surface heterogeneity, regional multi-model, high- T h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l coastlines and regional community therefore water bodies, all of resolution climate-change d e c i d e d t o t a r g e t which can modulate information with documented Africa for intensive the large-scale climate uncertainties. c o l l a b o r a t i o n a n d on regional to local the effort is already scales. Coarse spatial resolution of producing a significant amount of current models also precludes an accurate information on African climate, both to description of extreme weather events, support the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report which are of fundamental importance in (IPCC AR5) and to provide useful climate assessing the socio-economic impacts information to decision-makers involved of climate variability and change. in African climate risk management and adaptation planning. In order to coordinate international regional climate modelling, WCRP 3.2 Hydroclimate projects established in 2008 the Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling that African Monsoon Multidisciplinary began to develop a framework for the Analyses (AMMA) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Since its launch in February 2002 in Niamey (Niger), AMMA has focused on improving The goal of CORDEX is to foster an knowledge and understanding of the West international coordinated effort to produce African Monsoon (WAM) system and its improved regional multi-model, high- variability on daily-to-decadal timescales. 27 WCRP 3. Regional climate studies

Schematic of the CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) domains (courtesy of C. Jones, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI))

CORDEX multi-model data available for Africa (from top to bottom and left to right): observed mean July-August- September (JAS) precipitation for 1998-2008 and differences compared with observations and the individual RCMs with their ensemble average (from C. Jones et al., 2011)

28 3. Regional climate studies WCRP

AMMA is motivated by the societal need also contribute in the future to improved for improved prediction of WAM and its intraseasonal prediction. impacts on West African nations. In the past decade, AMMA has made substantial The annual cycle of WAM remains a progress through strong international scientific challenge to understand cooperation among African, European and ultimately predict reliably. AMMA a n d U S s c i e n t i s t s researchers highlighted ( s e e A M M A 2 n d Scientists in the (LPB) region, a rapid poleward shift International Science and in cooperation with interna- in peak rainfall between Plan, http://www.amma- the coastal region and international.org). tional partners, have developed a the Sahel at the time project to improve skill in predic- of the monsoon onset. WA M h a s t wo m a i n tions of the Basin’s hydroclimate The main factor for modes of variability that could contribute to improved this shift might be on the intraseasonal decision-making in sectors such the seasonally varying timescale: one of some as water-resource management, surface conditions over 15 days and another of the ocean and over some 40 days. These agriculture and food production. land. AMMA continues modes can strongly t o e m p h a s i z e a n d influence precipitation on the regional implement observations in the equatorial scale. Their initiation and propagation are Atlantic and over the African continent partly controlled by atmospheric dynamics, to support research into all aspects of including teleconnections from the Indian the monsoon system, including its onset. monsoon and the Mediterranean region. AMMA has begun monitoring these modes La Plata Basin (LPB) Project through the active engagement of many African National Meteorological Services. The La Plata Basin is a significant source of Monitoring of the surface conditions may natural capital for the growing populations

Schematic diagram depicting the West African Monsoon System (from Janicot et al., 2011) WCRP 3. Regional climate studies

of Argentina, Bolivia (Plurinational studies focused on these topics, leading State of), Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay to improved predictions and assessment and contributes 70% of the total Gross of the climate and hydrology system on Domestic Product of these countries. socio-economic development for the LPB is critical to local economies as entire basin. The initial phase of LBP an agricultural centre, as a natural involved the production of an ensemble waterway for transportation and as of possible future conditions from which a primary producer of hydroelectric a decision-making process could be energy. Scientists in the region, and in derived to support the design of adaptation cooperation with international partners, measures and risk-management strategies. have developed a project to improve Collaboration with stakeholders is key skill in predictions of the Basin’s to understanding the vulnerability of the hydroclimate that could contribute to system of interest, assessing climate- improved decision-making in sectors change impacts and suggesting the such as water-resource management, paths that could be taken in order to agriculture and food production. reduce the Basin’s vulnerability and initiate adaptive measures. Special focus is on developing early warnings of extreme events such as Mediterranean Climate Variability and droughts and floods. There is also a need Predictability (MedCLIVAR) to address the significant environmental degradation that the Basin has experienced MedCLIVAR (www.medclivar.eu), launched in the last decades as a result of land- in 2003, has developed a multidisciplinary use alteration, climate change and approach to studying the evolution of socio-economic development. Mediterranean climate, which includes atmospheric, marine and terrestrial The La Plata Basin Project (http://www. components on multiple timescales, eol.ucar.edu/projects/lpb/) provides ranging from paleoclimatic to future a framework for integrating regional centennial timescales. The scientific

Conceptual framework called Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, Response structure for agriculture studies in the La Plata Basin

30 3. Regional climate studies WCRP

themes of the project include past system poses many challenges such climate variability, connections between as uneven distribution of precipitation: the Mediterranean and global climate, scarce and irregular precipitation in the Mediterranean Sea circulation and many southern areas is further widening sea-level changes, feedbacks on the the gap between water availability and global climate system and the regional water demand. responses to greenhouse gases, air pollution and aerosol forcings. This environmental diversity, together with significant socio-economic pressures that The Mediterranean region is particularly exist between the northern and southern/ sensitive to variability and changes eastern Mediterranean countries (in the i n t h e l a rg e - s ca le latter, population, c l i m a t e d y n a m i c s The Mediterranean region is u r b a n i z a t i o n a n d a s i t i s lo ca te d i n particularly sensitive to vari- t h e r e f o r e e n e r g y a transitional zone demand are rapidly between subtropical ability and changes in the large- i n c r e a s i n g ) , w i l l t e m p e r a t e a n d scale climate dynamics as it is result in the greater continental climate. located in a transitional zone vulnerability of the Climate change impacts between subtropical temperate e n t i r e r e g i o n t o are expected to be and continental climate. o v e r - e x p l o i t a t i o n particularly strong of water, land and i n t e r m s o f m e a n ocean resources in the precipitation reduction, larger-than- future. The Mediterranean region must global average temperature increase, also pay attention to rapidly growing increased interannual variability of cities and coastal systems that will be precipitation and temperature, episodic affected by sea-level changes. occurrence of temperature extremes, intensity of hydrological cycle extremes MedCLIVAR organizes scientific and (droughts and heavy rainfall events) and technical workshops, summer schools increased sea salinity and temperature. and co-sponsored scientific meetings at The stress arising from these factors, annual conferences, such as the European combined with an already stressed Geophysical Union, to facilitate greater scientific cooperation among scientists in the region. With the European Science Foundation as main sponsor, MedCLIVAR awarded more than 30 grants to young scientists for training in research and education organizations. MedCLIVAR disseminates the scientific findings and assessments in the form of books and articles in journals and the media. A systematic archive of observations and model data simulations on the Mediterranean climate is presently being established at the World Data Centre for Climate (http://cera-www.dkrz.de/ CERA/MedCLIVAR.html) with the aim of sharing all available data for this region among engaged scientists. 31 WCRP 3. Regional climate studies

Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX)

HyMeX (http://www.hymex.org/) is undertaking process studies and regional climate investigations in coordination with the Mediterranean CORDEX (MED-CORDEX) project. A major focus is the analysis of uncertainties for both dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques by comparing model simulations with observations from the HyMeX sites in France, Israel, Italy and GEWEX high- elevation locations.

Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) they relate to global climate change. NEESPI (http://neespi.org/) is a large- The Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX) scale, interdisciplinary programme of research, aimed at developing a better BALTEX (http://www.baltex-research.eu/) understanding of the interactions of is an environmental research network the ecosystem, atmosphere and human to facilitate integrated studies of the dynamics in northern Eurasia and how Baltic Sea drainage basin. Although the

HyMeX stations (red numbers) used for assessments of uncertainties based on the European Climate Assessment dataset (grid in black dots) and observations from selected sites (green dots). Mediterranean domain used for CORDEX climate simulations (a). Enlarged areas show stations in Israel (b), France (c) and Italy (d) (from P. Drobinski et al., 2011).

32 3. Regional climate studies WCRP

NEESPI programme: location of 958 meteorological stations with long-term snow-survey information during the past five decades for surveys in: (A) field (open terrain) (665 stations); and (B) forested (425 stations) environments

initial focus was on the hydrological cycle and the exchange of energy The contributions from these regional between the atmosphere, the Baltic studies and their associated network of Sea and the surface of the catchment scientists have been a major source of area, BALTEX now includes study of scientific understanding that underpin our nutrient fluxes, the carbon cycle and current understanding of global climate the effects of climate change on the variability and change and its regional entire system. manifestations. This knowledge, together with data and information obtained Murray Darling Basin (MDB) Study over the past several decades, will be invaluable for assessing the adequacy The Murray Darling Basin study (http:// of downscaled climate information for www.mdb-rhp.org.au/) is designed to decision-makers through efforts such deliver new scientific and technical as CORDEX in the next decade. insight to enable real-time and interactive analysis of water information and advanced The recently established Working Group methods for forecasting water availability on Regional Climate is intended to assist and floods across Australia. The study WCRP in bridging the gap between the focuses on many aspects, including data development of science-based climate interoperability, hydrological modelling, information and its use for decision- water accounting and water-resources making in the coming decade, especially assessment. through the GFCS.

33 WCRP 4. Analysis of climate system observations

Observations of planet Earth and especially all climate system components and forcings are increasingly needed for planning and informed decision-making related to climate services (courtesty of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) and the European Space Agency (ESA)).

34 4. Analysis of climate system observations

4.1 Reanalysis composition, the cryosphere and carbon- cycle disciplines. Major challenges lie Observations are vital for monitoring, ahead as the disparate nature of each understanding and validating weather, becomes joined in Earth system analyses. air-quality and climate predictions. Retrospective analysis – or reanalysis – WCRP has facilitated coordination of of observations is a scientific method for research and development in this field since developing a comprehensive record of how its inception by organizing international weather and climate are changing over conferences and panels designed to time. Observations and a numerical model bring together the developer and user that simulates one or more aspects of the of climate information. For example, the Earth system are combined objectively Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for to generate a synthesized estimate of Research and Applications (MERRA), the the state of the system. A reanalysis Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis typically extends over a n d t h e E u ro p e a n several decades or WCRP has facilitated coordina- E u r o p e a n C e n t r e longer and covers the tion of research and development for Medium-Range entire globe from the in this field since its inception by Weather Forecasts Earth’s surface to well organizing international confer- (ECMWF) Reanalysis above the stratosphere. (ERA interim) have been ences and panels designed to evaluated in depth and Reanalysis products bring together the developer and many strengths and are used extensively in user of climate information. weaknesses identified. climate research and services, including for monitoring and Preliminary results indicate the potential comparing current climate conditions benefit of coupling the ocean and atmosphere with those of the past, identifying the domains for improved forecasts and causes of climate variations and change reanalyses. WCRP will ensure continued and developing climate predictions. international coordination across disciplines Information derived from reanalysis is also and agencies and provide the best being used increasingly in commercial available scientific guidance on the latest and business applications in sectors such developments in observations, models, as energy, agriculture, water resources assimilation and analysis fields to the and insurance. international community.

Reanalyses have become an integral part 4.2 Reprocessing of Earth system science research across many disciplines (http://reanalyses.org). An important and rapidly evolving role in While originating in the atmospheric WCRP is the assessment of global datasets sciences and numerical weather prediction produced through international cooperation (NWP), the essential methodology has and coordination. For example, it is often been adopted in the fields of oceanography difficult to define a single best climate and terrestrial ecosystems and hydrology, data source. Datasets are instead most with emerging research in atmospheric often complementary in nature with varying 35 WCRP 4. Analysis of climate system observations

Reanalysis products can provide continuous weather and atmospheric and ocean circulation data. Additional parameters not routinely observed, if at all, are derived from the background forecast models. For example: (left) the 1979 President’s Day snowstorm depicted from MERRA sea-level pressure, surface winds and cloud fraction; and (right) the linear trend of 300-m ocean-heat content anomalies over the 1993-2009 period (°C/decade) from an ensemble mean of linear trends based on 10 ocean reanalyses (from Xue et al., 2012).

strengths and weaknesses. Essential Each of the GEWEX reference products elements that define the usefulness of a is currently preparing for a reprocessing dataset are certainly its accuracy, error cycle that will result in common space and characterization, associated documentation, etc. time grids, as well as ancillary data and Comprehensive evaluations against reference assumptions. data and side-by-side comparisons among all The WCRP/GEWEX Data and WCRP’s view is that these available datasets (at assessments are dynamic different spatial and Assessments Panel recently activities that may need temporal scales) are, initiated the assessment of all to be repeated every however, prerequisites global water and energy data- 5-10 years, depending for informed data choices sets, as well as radiative fluxes on the rate at which in user applications. and forcing terms, including products are being added turbulent fluxes and aerosols. or modified within a In addition to error given discipline. Even characterization and if the validation data, comparisons among available products, data procedures and previously assessed data usefulness depends on factors such as spatial are archived for interim use by new product and temporal coverage, data access, length developers, comprehensive assessments of record and supporting documentation – are critical to move the field forward in a both project-type documentation and systematic way and to enhance greater use peer-reviewed product description and of such datasets that require significant analysis – and a listing of peer-reviewed investments by national and international research reports that have used the data organizations. product. 4.3 Evaluation of space-based global The WCRP/GEWEX Data and Assessments climate datasets Panel recently initiated the assessment of all global water and energy datasets, as The Global Climate Observing System well as radiative fluxes and forcing terms, is an integrated system with two major including turbulent fluxes and aerosols. components: data provided by the satellite 36 4. Analysis of climate system observations WCRP

Estimates of the observed hydrological cycle (adapted from Trenberth et al., 2007) to apply to the 2002-2008 period, with units in 1 000 km3 for storage and 1 000 km3/yr for exchanges. Superimposed are values from the eight reanalyses for 2002-2008, colour-coded as given at top right. The exception is for ERA-40, which is for the 1990s. For the water vapour transport from ocean to land, the three estimates given for each are: (a) the actual transport estimated from the moisture budget (based on analysed winds and moisture); (b) evaporation minus precipitation from the ocean; and (c) precipitation minus evaporation from the land, which should be identical. constellation and the global in situ networks information on the processes controlling in the atmosphere, ocean, on land and in the the budgets of water, energy and chemical cryosphere. While satellites can generally species. All three components of the Global provide global coverage, they cannot measure Observing System are needed and should all the variables of interest and they are be maintained to ensure the required often not designed to provide data with quality and comprehensiveness of global long-term stability and homogeneity. The climate datasets. in situ networks can be used for calibration and evaluation of satellite data and are WCRP, together with GCOS, is encouraging vital for the measurement of variables, space agencies to give sustained attention such as surface and to activities that ensure subsurface land and WCRP, together with GCOS, is consistency in producing ocean properties, that encouraging space agencies to a n d d o c u m e n t i n g cannot be measured observational data. As from satellites. give sustained attention to activ- calibration methods ities that ensure consistency improve, there is a These global systems in producing and documenting need to periodically are supplemented by observational data. reprocess fundamental ”supersites”, which climate data records provide detailed point measurements (FCDR) and ECV products that depend of several variables in specific climatic on satellite records. zones that are measured with the best available instruments, rigorously calibrated/ The international efforts on climate evaluated against world standards and processing and reprocessing activities documented in detail. Observations from within, inter alia, ESA, the European these sites can provide anchor points for Organisation for the Exploitation of global climate datasets, as well as yielding Meteorological Satellites, the US National 37 WCRP 4. Analysis of climate system observations

Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA), to understand properly the relationship CEOS and the Coordination Group for between heat flux and SST, it is necessary Meteorological Satellites, are important to know the characteristics of the mixed

Space-based global observing systems

initiatives for meeting user requirements. layers in the ocean and atmosphere. The All producers of climate datasets are spatial and temporal variability of surface encouraged to carry out self-assessment fluxes further highlights the need for careful of the utility and uncertainties of the consideration of their measurement and products. representation in models.

Independent expert-group assessments It is also important, from a climate science of the datasets associated with ECVs, viewpoint, to consider surface fluxes being promoted by WCRP and GCOS, over land, ice and sea together, as they markedly enhance the utility and encourage represent equally important components improvements of individual datasets. WCRP of the climate system budgets of energy, and GCOS are striving to establish an water and nutrients. Reducing emphasis on international framework for a consistent any one component precludes its effective approach to the production, evaluation and use in quantitative assessment of global accessibility of global climate datasets, and regional budgets of these exchanges. which will eventually lead to a complete Surface flux observations – of both physical inventory of ECV datasets. and chemical variables over land, ice and ocean – are obtained both directly and 4.4 Surface fluxes action plan indirectly. Datasets are developed from in situ and satellite-based data (or blended Surface fluxes are of great importance to datasets from different sources), as well climate studies because they represent as from model-based simulations. The exchanges across the components of the complexity of determining fluxes has led climate system. To characterize these fluxes to many inconsistencies in the datasets correctly, conditions on both sides of the available to climate researchers. Many interface must be determined. For example, such inconsistencies have been identified 38 4. Analysis of climate system observations WCRP

through intercomparison studies organized to CMIP5, to improve the connection by WCRP. Some scientific issues remain on between data experts and scientists the basic measurement of fluxes at reference involved in climate model development sites or supersites where comprehensive and evaluation. measurements are made. The overarching goal is to enable the A number of different networks of supersites two expert communities to develop and have been established document some datasets around the world. The WCRP and GCOS have developed based on space-based plethora of instruments a joint action plan on surface observations from the and methods used to fluxes to be implemented in past several decades, obtain the same fluxes consistent with the needs to be assessed. cooperation with sister inter- format and standards of WCRP and GCOS have national research programmes the CMIP5 model output developed a joint action such as the IGBP. to be made available plan on surface fluxes on the Earth System to be implemented in cooperation with Grid Federation (ESGF) for use by all sister international research programmes researchers around the world. such as the IGBP. The Obs4MIPs datasets correspond in Recommended actions include: time and space to the model simulations developed as a part of the CMIP5 • The evaluation of global surface experiments. This technical alignment flux datasets from observations and of observational products with climate models (for example, development model output will greatly facilitate model- of community guidelines on the data comparisons. Guidelines have also evaluation of flux products); been developed for Obs4MIPs product • Developing an international plan to documentation that is of particular optimize the spatial distribution of relevance for model evaluation. reference sites; • Improving the consistency of measurements Products available via Obs4MIPs are: and data handling and the promotion of multi-variable sites; and • Directly comparable to a model output • Promoting data-sharing across the field defined as part of CMIP5; various communities using similar formats and standards. • Open to contributions from all data producers that meet Obs4MIPs 4.5 Using observations with models requirements;

A new WCRP initiative, supported by NASA • Well documented, with traceability and the US Department of Energy, will to track product version changes; greatly improve intercomparisons of models and and observational datasets. Obs4MIPs (http://obs4mips.llnl.gov:8080/wiki) is • Served through ESGF for ease of a pilot effort, which is closely aligned access by all interested researchers.

39 WCRP 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects

W/m2

A holistic approach to addressing environment, energy and food challenges of the 21st century: for example, proper management of methane and black carbon emissions benefit human health, agriculture and climate (courtesy NASA/Drew Shindell).

40 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects 5.1 Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) in the need for a new composite sea-ice extent product. The CliC Project goals are to assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability These efforts also resulted in improved and change have on components of the understanding of the processes governing cryosphere, and the consequences of these the evolution of Arctic sea-ice and a impacts for the climate system; and to deeper insight into model performance. determine the stability The roles of the static of the global cryos­ In cooperation with its part- stability of the Arctic phere. In cooperation ners, the CliC project devel- boundary layer, the role with its partners, the oped the Integrated Global of numerical resolution CliC project developed Observing Strategy Theme on in simulating meridional the Integrated Global heat transport to the Observing Strat­egy the Cryosphere that continues Arctic Ocean and the Theme on the Cryosphere to guide the development of model climatology in that continues to guide cryospheric observations. reproducing sea ice and the development of several other factors cryos­pheric observations. The Global were examined in detail in this analysis. Cryosphere Watch builds on this legacy. Preliminary results from the CMIP5 Despite steady advances in climate project show considerably reduced model modelling and prediction, the CMIP3 biases in simulating Arctic Ocean sea climate models were not able to reproduce, ice. Thus, over several recent years, as an ensemble, the observed rate of significant progress has been made in decline of Arctic sea ice. both observations and prediction of Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover. A major effort has been made to understand the reasons underlying this significant One major area of research on the role of mismatch between projections and the cryosphere in climate is the magnitude, observations. To facilitate the required timing and form of the permafrost carbon comparisons, CliC has been supporting the that can be released to the atmosphere assessment of possible differences between in a warmer climate. Together with the the estimates of Arctic Ocean sea ice International Permafrost Association obtained using different and the Global Carbon passive microwave sea- One major area of research on Project, CliC initiated ice algorithms, which the role of cryosphere in climate a targeted programme are the main source is the magnitude, timing and of research that aims for estimating sea-ice form of the permafrost carbon to assess the amount extent and concen­tration. and form of carbon This effort revealed released to the atmosphere in s t o r e d i n v a r i o u s that the differences a warmer climate. permafrost soil types in total Arctic sea-ice and the vulnerability of extent resulting from the use of differing these soils to thaw in a warmer climate. algorithms could be as large as one Early indications are that, when permafrost- million square kilometres, thus resulting carbon processes are included in climate 41 WCRP 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects

model scenarios, terrestrial ecosystems that aims to develop the adaptation north of 60°N are likely to turn from a decisions that must be made in response

sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the to human activity; 21st century. This preliminary conclusion will be used in future assessments of Frontier 2 – Decadal climate variability, the carbon cycle and its amplification predictability and prediction: identify in the Arctic region. This knowledge will and understand phenomena that offer also help improve representation of such some degree of decadal predictability complex processes in future climate/ and skillfully predict these climate Earth system models. fluctuations and trends;

The importance of adequate representation Frontier 3 – Intraseasonal and seasonal of forcing factors for cryospheric modules climate predictability and prediction: of modern climate and Earth system identify and understand phenomena that models cannot be overstated. For example, offer some degree of intraseasonal-to- the balance of snow accumulation and interannual predictability, to skillfully ablation affects the fate of ice sheets predict these climate fluctuations and and glaciers. Steep terrain is typical for trends and to increase interactions of mountainous regions where glaciers are scientists, operational forecasters and located and for edges of ice sheets. Thus, decision-makers; high spatial resolution is necessary to simulate precipitation for driving ice- Imperative 1 – Improved atmosphere sheet and glacier models. Recent years and ocean component models of Earth have seen a rapid, focused improvement system models: reduce the negative of models of the polar regions and their impact of biases in model representations ability to simulate polar precipitation, of atmospheric and oceanic processes; for example under the Ice2Sea project. CliC-affiliated scientists are starting to Imperative 2 – Data synthesis, analysis, calibrate regional models for assessment reanalysis and uncertainty: provide of the future evolution of regional glaciers, credibility to climate projections by for example in Patagonia, South America. understanding the past and present Such capabilities are critical in projecting state of the ocean; the future state of glaciers and their contribution to freshwater resources, Imperative 3 – Ocean observing system: as well as substantiated assessments maintain over many decades a sustained of sea-level variability and change at ocean observing system capable of the regional level. detecting and documenting global climate change; 5.2 Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project Imperative 4 – Capacity building.

The focus of CLIVAR is on understanding These scientific frontiers and imperatives climate variability, particularly the role of are addressed through a network of ocean-atmosphere interactions. CLIVAR panels and working groups focused on the has identified three major scientific themes various ocean basins (Atlantic, Pacific, or “frontiers” and four “imperatives” to Indian and Southern) and monsoon serve as the framework for its activities: regions (Americas, Asia-Australia and Frontier 1 – Anthropogenic climate Africa), as well as on modelling, global change: undertake the predictive science synthesis and observations. CLIVAR 42 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects WCRP

Arctic sea-ice extent observations (thick red line) and 13 CMIP3 model simulations, together with the multi-model ensemble mean (solid black line) and standard deviation (dotted black line) for September 2007 (adapted from Stroeve et al., 2007)

Distribution of soil organic carbon contents in the northern circumpolar permafrost region (Tarnocai et al., 2009)

43 WCRP 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects

co-sponsors an expert team on climate- the central equatorial Indian Ocean change detection and indices, as well as from October 2011 to January 2012. The a group working on paleoclimate. programme collected in situ observations to advance understanding of Madden-Julian CLIVAR is striving to produce and improve Oscillation (MJO) onset and improve MJO global gridded indices of temperature and prediction and simulation. CLIVAR has precipitation extremes. This activity not also helped to coordinate the development only helps to improve our understanding and implementation of monitoring and of past changes in climate extremes but assessing experimental real-time MJO also provides basic datasets for climate forecasting from operational forecast centres model validation and detection and worldwide. In addition to MJO hindcast attribution work. skill assessment, the CLIVAR’s regional panels results are contributing One example is the have been instrumental in the to weather and climate A t l a s o f E x t re m e s development and advocacy of models through improved over the Americas. representation of the T h i s i s a n o n l i n e observing systems and model- physical processes. atlas of temperature ling studies that address criti- a n d p r e c i p i t a t i o n cal regions of the world oceans CLIVAR is active in extremes, using CLIVAR- where enhanced observations addressing the large developed indices – both and understanding are needed tropical Atlantic biases observational gridded to initialize and evaluate climate present in the current data and reanalysis generation of seasonal products. CLIVAR is models and to improve predic- a n d l o n g e r - t e r m also organizing the tions of climate variability and p re d i c t i o n s y ste m s computation of indices change. which lead to large based on CMIP5 model model uncertainties simulations and will disseminate the as to the future evolution of the tropical resulting data to the wider climate Atlantic climate and limit climate prediction research community. The activity is an skill. The Tropical Atlantic Climate important contribution to the IPCC Fifth Experiment is an ongoing multinational Assessment Report. observational programme, which aims to advance the understanding of coupled CLIVAR’s regional panels have been ocean-atmosphere processes and improve instrumental in the development and climate prediction for the tropical advocacy of observing systems and Atlantic region. Climate models suffer modelling studies that address critical from strong SST biases in this region, regions of the world oceans where enhanced which could at least be partly related observations and understanding are needed to some local ocean processes. to initialize and evaluate climate models and to improve predictions of climate The CLIVAR-GOOS (Global Ocean Observing variability and change. Several major System) Panel was instrumental in ocean field campaigns were coordinated establishing the Research Moored Array recently to improve our understanding of (RAMA) for African-Asian-Australian the role of the world’s oceans in climate. Monsoon Analysis and Prediction. These are discussed briefly below. This array has dramatically changed observations in the Indian Ocean and is The CINDY2011/DYNAMO international contributing to improved understanding field campaign took place in and around of the monsoon climate system, as well 44 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects WCRP

as model simulation and prediction skill The Overturning in the Subpolar North in this region. Atlantic Project is designed to quantify the large-scale, low-frequency, full water- The North-western Pacific Ocean Circulation column net fluxes of mass, heat and and Climate Experiment aims to observe freshwater associated with the meridional and explain the structure, variability overturning circulation in the subpolar and dynamics of the ocean circulation North Atlantic and will contribute to a in the north-western Pacific region and sustained AMOC observing system. to clarify its interaction with marginal seas, the Indonesian Throughflow and the CLIVAR has sponsored a series of hindcast subtropical ocean circulation. It will also experiments to investigate intraseasonal evaluate the societal impacts of ocean prediction and predictability, with a focus variability in the region and provide a on boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal scientific basis for developing a sustained variability. The monsoon regions of the monitoring programme wo r l d , w h e re m o re to aid future climate CLIVAR has sponsored a series than half the global prediction. of hindcast experiments to population lives, are especially challenging. The Southern Ocean investigate intraseasonal pre- Interannual variability O b s e r v i n g S y s t e m diction and predictability, with a o f m e a n m o n s o o n a c t i v i t y e n h a n c e s , focus on boreal summer mon- rainfall is relatively coordinates and expands soon intraseasonal variability. low (~10% of the mean), strategic observations but seasonal variations of the Southern Ocean, of the monsoon have an area that currently suffers from a a profound impact on agriculture and paucity of observations. water availability.

The AMOC project and the associated Monsoon failure (or extreme drought) is Rapid Climate Change programme are often a result of extended intraseasonal investigating the role of AMOC in global monsoon breaks. Monsoon intraseasonal climate and assessing its variability variability is not well-simulated or predicted mechanisms and predictability. The in climate models of the sort used for observing network includes trans-basin, seasonal prediction. Skill assessment overflow and western boundary current of predicting both boreal summer and observations. Results from several of the austral summer intraseasonal variability in situ programmes established as part is underway. CLIVAR is also coordinating of the AMOC monitoring network are now an assessment of the representation of approaching or exceeding a decade in length, boreal summer intraseasonal variability making them more valuable than ever. in CMIP5 versus CMIP3 simulations. Model studies are increasingly suggesting an identifiable “fingerprint” associated CLIVAR has been promoting several with AMOC variability, manifested in experiments for evaluating, understanding measurable broad-scale fields such as sea and improving the ocean component level and subsurface temperature patterns. in CMIP5 models. Some are aimed at Considerable effort has been directed investigating mechanisms for interannual- towards improving the representation to-decadal variability and providing initial of AMOC in climate models with recent conditions for decadal predictability successes in reproducing deep-water studies. The South-west Pacific Ocean mass formation and transports. Circulation and Climate Experiment 45 WCRP 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects

Land-sea mask, topography and winter precipitation in two versions of HIRHAM regional climate models, with resolution of 0.25˚ (~28 km) at 0.05˚ (~5 km) (from Lucas-Picher et al., 2012)

Cindy2011 field campaign

46 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects WCRP

takes a large-scale approach to decadal A major challenge for climate analysis climate prediction through the better and prediction is uneven observational understanding and modelling of the coverage in both space and time. Deep- equatorial and South-west Pacific Ocean ocean and ice-covered regions are circulation, alongside a smaller-scale particularly poorly observed and some objective targeting coastal and island data are significantly biased. CLIVAR climate processes and prediction. has therefore carried out a number of

Southern Ocean Observing System

47 WCRP 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects

ocean synthesis evaluation activities. of the Earth’s energy budget and As the most significant and consistent water cycle and their variability on observed changes in the deep ocean short time- and space-scales (3 h are in the Southern Ocean and adjacent and 25 km) appropriate for process ocean basins, a working group has been studies during and beyond decades, formed to write synthesis papers on for use in climate system analysis and Southern Ocean Antarctic bottom water model development and validation; and deep ocean changes. • Enhance the understanding of how Another outcome has been an activity to energy and water cycle processes facilitate the intercomparison of synthesis function and quantify their contribution products, ending as close to real-time to climate feedbacks; as possible, through identifying different groups to analyse different variables. • Improve the predictive capability for These would include relevant ocean key water- and energy- cycle variables climate-change metrics, which could then and feedbacks through improved be presented to the wider community. parameterizations to better represent CLIVAR established a Repository for hydrometeorological processes, and Evaluation of Ocean Simulations (REOS) determine the geographical and to provide guidance on how to evaluate seasonal characteristics of their ocean model simulation, taking advantage predictability over land areas; of the regional oceanography expertise represented within CLIVAR’s ocean basin • Undertake joint activities with operational activities. The REOS website (http:// hydrometeorological services, related www.clivar.org/organization/wgomd/ Earth System Science Partnership reos) provides the climate modelling (ESSP) projects such as the Global community with a variety of resources, Water System Project, and hydrological such as directions to recommended research programmes, to demonstrate observational datasets, a recommended the value of new GEWEX prediction sets of metrics, literature and scripts. capabilities, datasets and tools for assessing the consequences of global 5.3 Global Energy and Water Cycle change. Experiment (GEWEX) Project GEWEX has three major components The overall goal of GEWEX is to observe, designed to advance research in atmosphere analyse, understand and predict the and atmosphere/land intereactions; variations of the global energy cycle and regional hydroclimate projects (RHPs); hydrological regime and their impact on and the production and assessment of atmospheric and surface dynamics. GEWEX global water and energy datasets, and also seeks to observe and understand is making substantial progress in all regional hydrological processes and these areas. water resources and their response to changes in the environment, such as the The overall goal of GEWEX modelling increase in greenhouse gases and land- efforts is to develop and improve the use change. To reach this goal, GEWEX representation of the atmosphere in scientists seek to: weather and climate models by improving the model formulation of the energy and • Produce consistent research-quality water budgets. Investigations are also datasets, complete with error descriptions, made to demonstrate predictability of 48 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects WCRP their variability and GEWEX has three major com- GEWEX coordinates the response to climate ponents designed to advance production of global forcing. research in atmosphere and datasets on clouds, precipitation, aerosols, The principal task of atmosphere/land interactions; ocean-sensible and the GEWEX RHPs is to regional hydroclimate projects latent heat flux, land- achieve demonstrable (RHPs); and the production and sensible and latent s k i l l i n p re d i c t i n g assessment of global water and heat flux and surface, c h a n g e s i n w a t e r energy datasets, and making as well as top-of-the- resources and soil substantial progress in all these atmosphere radiative moisture as an integral fluxes. An integrated part of the climate areas. product, using common system up to seasonal assumptions across the and annual time scales. The network of suite of GEWEX products listed above, RHP observing stations provides in situ is currently under construction. Recent datasets for different regions, seasons emphasis has shifted from enabling and variables that are used to evaluate dataset generation to assessing datasets, remotely sensed products with energy, which includes the process of transferring water and carbon budget components. scientifically generated data products to operationally produced ones and In turn, RHPs apply in situ and remote- understanding how these datasets relate sensing data to studies designed to to one another. improve seasonal forecasting, detection and attribution of change and development Comprehending what the data (from and analysis of climate projections. observations as well as models) represent RHP datasets, scientific results and is crucial but, perhaps even more tools are provided openly and free of important, is ensuring that other users charge to local users and the broader of such data do too. Key assessment GEWEX community to address matters of activities include not only the classical concern within their regions. They also comparisons with in situ observations but contribute to larger-scale studies, for also intercomparisons among products example assessments of global datasets and detailed surveys related to the by the GEWEX Data and Assessment intended uses of products. In addition to Panel’s global model intercomparisons, recommendations, assessments should and initiatives such as CORDEX. strive to save procedures and datasets that allow future product developers to GEWEX brings together theoretical and repeat the assessment for their product. experimental insights into the radiative The recently released GEWEX Radiative interactions and climate feedbacks Flux Assessment involved 75 participants associated with cloud processes to representing nearly all the space and address the fundamental scientific weather agencies of the world. A major question: how sensitive is the Earth’s global assessment of clouds has recently climate to changes in radiative and other been published and other assessments, forcings? Answering this question will including temperature and water-vapour enable improved prediction of transient products, are ongoing. natural climate variations, such as El Niño, and provide better understanding of Looking to the future, GEWEX has identified the consequences of natural and human- four Grand Science Questions (GSQs) induced climate changes. where new observations and computer 49 WCRP 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects

and model advancements indicate that changes in water availability and significant progress can be made. Answers security? There is a need to address to these GSQs would bring socio-economic terrestrial water-storage changes benefits, particularly those relating to and to balance the water budget water availability, food security, energy over land through exploitation of consumption and human health: new datasets, data assimilation and improved physical understanding • How can we better understand and and modelling skill on all scales predict precipitation variability with links to the entire hydrological and changes? T h i s i n vo lve s t h e cycle, including hydrogeological exploitation of improved datasets aspects of groundwater recharge. (satellite and in situ) of precipitation, In particular, the use of realistic as well as related variables, such land-surface complexity with all as soil moisture, water storage and human-induced effects taken into sea-surface salinity expected in the account is required. The results coming five years. These data will be should enhance the evaluation of evaluated and analysed and used to the vulnerability of water systems, confront models in new ways that will especially to extremes, which are improve simulations of precipitation vital for considerations of water and lead to improved predictions security and can be used to increase of the hydrological cycle. These resilience through good management results should all lead to improved and governance. understanding and prediction of precipitation variability and related • How does a warming world affect climate services. climate extremes, especially droughts, floods and heatwaves, and how do • How do changes in land surface and land-area processes, in particular, hydrology influence past and future contribute? A w a r m i n g wo r l d i s

GEWEX Regional Hydroclimate Projects

50 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects WCRP

expected to alter the occurrence interactions and their feedbacks and magnitude of extremes such as to the climate system. Upgraded droughts, heavy rainfall and floods, as GEWEX datasets, global reanalyses of well as the geographical distribution atmosphere and ocean and improved of rain and snow. Such changes are modelling, together with advanced related to an acceleration of the diagnostics being planned throughout hydrological cycle and circulation the GEWEX panels, play key roles changes. in advancing this topic. The result is improved tools and products for • How well are models able to handle climate services. extremes and how can we improve their capability? New improved and Plans to investigate each of these questions updated datasets at high frequency are being assembled by GEWEX researchers (e.g. hourly) are needed, together with in partnership with other WCRP groups new activities to promote analyses and panels, as well as in partnership quantifying which changes are consistent with other national and international with expectations and how we can research programmes. best contribute to improving their prediction in a future climate. New 5.4 Stratospheric Processes and their applications should be developed Role in Climate (SPARC) Project for improved tracking and warning systems and for assessing changes SPARC coordinates international efforts in risk of drought, floods, river flow, to bring knowledge of the stratosphere for storms, coastal sea-level surges and research on climate variability, change ocean waves. and prediction. It includes three large scientific themes as described below. • How can understanding of the effects and uncertainties of water and SPARC research on climate and chemistry energy exchanges in the current interactions has been initially focusing and changing climate be improved on the changes of the stratospheric and conveyed? The o z o n e , w h i c h i s o f goal is to improve central interest for the consistency between The experience and capacity WMO/UNEP periodic net solar and infra- developed by SPARC in strat- Scientific Assessments red radiation and ospheric ozone research now s e r v i n g t h e V i e n n a sensible and latent make it possible to begin the C o n ve n t i o n a n d i t s heat fluxes at the systematic study of other Montreal Protocol. The surface to reveal experience and capacity p ro ce ss e s t h a t , chemical constituencies, water developed by SPARC i n t u r n , m u s t vapour and aerosols, not only in stratospheric ozone be replicated in in the stratosphere but also in research now make it climate models, on the troposphere, and to embark possible to begin the multiple scales. This on the full scope of research systematic study of other question relates required to answer the fun- chemical constituencies, also to uncertainties w a t e r v a p o u r a n d introduced by incom­ damental science question aerosols, not only in plete understanding of interactions between the the stratosphere but of cloud-aerosol- atmospheric chemistry, climate also in the troposphere, p r e c i p i t a t i o n change and air pollution. and to embark on the 51 WCRP 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects

full scope of research required to answer of process-oriented performance metrics the fundamental science question of to evaluate chemistry-climate models interactions between atmospheric (CCMs). The improved understanding chemistry, climate change and air of the strengths and weaknesses of pollution. CCMs in the second phase of CCMVal in 2010 helped to obtain considerably Understanding and predicting climate- more comprehensive and self-consistent change signatures in the stratosphere multi-model projections of the ODSs is fundamental for obtaining a more than the projections obtained during complete and comprehensive picture of the first phase of the project. climate change. Based on a variety of observations, SPARC scientists develop The simulations coordinated through methods for detecting past changes and the SPARC CCMVal activity also provide variations in stratospheric variables and climate-relevant information, since it propose their explanations in terms of has now been clearly demonstrated that natural and anthropogenic effects. These the ozone hole has been the principal studies serve as the basis for assessing driver of past changes in summertime the future evolution of stratospheric surface climate in the extra-tropical variables and assigning some degree southern hemisphere. of confidence to such predictions. The recovery of the ozone hole is Research on stratos­phere-tropos­phere predicted to largely offset the effects coupling helps to identify the dominant of greenhouse gas increases on future mechanisms of their dynamic and radiative summertime circulation changes. A major interactions. Due to generally longer new challenge for the SPARC chemistry- timescales of stratospheric processes, climate modelling activity, which is such research is extremely promising for working increasingly closely with the enabling extended-range tropospheric IGBP International Global Atmospheric weather forecasting. Chemistry project, will be to develop comprehensive troposphere-stratosphere SPARC undertakes process studies, CCMs, including an interactive ocean, conducts field observations and data tropospheric chemistry and spectrally studies, develops model experiments resolved solar irradiance effects, together and prepares dedicated assessments with a fully resolved stratosphere. to address knowledge gaps in its three large-scale project themes. The success SPARC activity on gravity waves culminated of SPARC research on the role of the in a review paper (Alexander et al., 2010) stratosphere in climate now makes it on gravity-wave effects in stratosphere- possible to extend the scope of activities resolving climate models, recent observations towards a fuller coverage of atmospheric and analysis methods that reveal global chemistry and tropospheric dynamics. patterns in corresponding momentum fluxes. Using very high-resolution The peer-reviewed Chemistry Climate models capable of resolving gravity Model Validation (CCMVal) Report (SPARC waves and their circulation effects, it Report No. 5) was the result of a strong was possible to show that deficiencies community-based research effort and in the representation of gravity-wave provided key input into the 2010 WMO/UNEP drag remain a significant source of Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion. uncertainty in model dynamics, especially The Report pioneered the systematic use in the southern hemisphere. 52 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects WCRP

By comparing momentum fluxes derived waves and the processes/parameters from observations and global models, SPARC that control their circulation effects. is attempting to assess the agreement among the various measures of momentum The direct effect of the observed variation flux and exploit observations to improve in solar ultraviolet radiation affecting gravity-wave parameterizations in global stratospheric ozone has the most significant models or to explicitly resolve them in impact and is already included in most simulations. Early results are showing climate models, although significant some strengths and weaknesses of current uncertainties in the magnitude and parameterizations that can lead directly spectral dependence of these variations to model improvements. Ongoing work is remain. The effective change in solar generating new information on gravity- radiative forcing between the Maunder wave variability that may stimulate the Minimum and present is estimated as development of new parameterizations. The ~0.24 W m-2 and is much smaller than the future focus will be on sources of gravity forcing due to anthropogenic changes, but

Simulated zonally and ensemble-averaged climatology of zonal wind speed and latitude of the jet maxima: (top) for the northern hemisphere (NH), December to February (DJF); and (bottom) for the southern hemisphere (SH), June to August (JJA) compared with the ERA-40 and US National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis and the Randel et al. [2004] climatology. The grey shading indicates a 95% confidence interval for the 20-year mean ERA-40 climatology based on a t-distribution (from Butchard et al., 2011).

53 WCRP 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects

The SPARC Data Initiative targets 25 different long-lived and short-lived trace-gas species (CH4, N2O, HNO3, N2O5, NOx, HCl, ClO, OClO, HOCl, HF, BrO, SF6, CO, … ), aerosol, ozone and water vapour.

solar forcing can exert a larger impact facilitate the use of such data in different on decadal timescales. applications, including the generation of corresponding FCDRs, empirical The SPARC Data Initiative activity, which studies of stratospheric climate change started in 2009, is reviewing datasets and variability and model-measurement of vertically resolved chemical trace comparisons. SPARC Data Initiative gas and aerosol observations from products are already contributing to the upper troposphere to the lower the SPARC ozone-profile and water- mesosphere obtained from different satellite vapour trend analyses. The Initiative will instruments. The improved knowledge also provide guidance and feedback to of current and recent instruments, space agencies with respect to required measurement and retrieval techniques improvements in future observations. and validation activities has resulted in a step change in our understanding of SPARC is facilitating discussions on the quality of the available data products geo­engineering options as a means and has prompted the development of mitigating the adverse impacts of of improved data products. This will climate warming. For example, several 54 5. Contributions of WCRP Core Projects WCRP

modelling groups within the SPARC CCMVal associated increase in the likelihood of community are currently engaged in the regional droughts; rapid reversal of the SPARC Geoengineering cooling effect when Model Inter-comparison SPARC is facilitating discussions t h e a p p l i c a t i o n i s Project studying the on geoengineering options as a stopped; continued a p p l i c a b i l i t y a n d means of mitigating the adverse ocean acidification; robustness of chemistry- ozone depletion; effects c l i m a te m o d e l s fo r impacts of climate warming. on plants by changing addressing policy- the partitioning between re le v a n t q u e s t i o n s d i re c t a n d d i f f u s e around geoengineering options and light; and unknown impacts on cirrus their potential risks. clouds. Even if the risks are judged to be acceptable, the feasibility of any These risks (depending on the specific particular geoengineering method needs geoengineering technique) might include: to be reviewed and the cost implications regional climate change, including a quantified prior to any consideration of global reduction in precipitation and an such options for policy-related discussions.

55 WCRP 6. Climate information for decision-makers

Earth System Science Partnership: scientific foundation for assessment of planetary conditions and limits. Scientists identify environmental processes that are fundamental for the planet’s ability to support human life. They assess the limits - boundaries - for maintaining a habitable Earth (courtesy of the Stockholm Resilience Centre).

56 6. Climate information for decision-makers

6.1 Contributions to climate assessments Phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) was established Through its Working Group on Coupled by WCRP to provide a community-based Modelling (WGCM), WCRP coordinates the infrastructure in support of climate model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project diagnosis, validation, documentation (CMIP). CMIP activities are carried out and data access, thus enabling a diverse by 25 modelling centres in 14 countries, community of scientists to analyse climate and CMIP results are made available model output in a systematic fashion. openly to researchers and decision- Virtually the entire international climate makers for a wide range of purposes, modelling community has participated in including research, analysis, synthesis CMIP5 since its inception in 1995. This and assessments. A major focus for CMIP required greater coordination with the is to contribute to the IPCC Assessment IGBP AIMES project and other partners Reports. For example, Phase 3 of CMIP at the regional and global levels. (CMIP3) provided the basis for several hundred peer-reviewed papers and played 6.2 Ozone assessment a prominent role in the Fourth IPCC Assessment Report (http://www-pcmdi. Since their inception in the late 1970s, llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php). SPARC has been a major contributor to

Stakeholders Users, decision-makers Assessments Products information Basic Operational Prediction Climate research applied Attribution research services Modelling

Assimilation

Observations, data and analyses

Conceptual framework for WGCM/WCRP in coordinating climate modelling activities internationally in support of the policy-making process (figure by K. Trenberth, slightly modified by G. Asrar)

57 WCRP 6. Climate information for decision-makers

Simulations of stratospheric ozone depletion

the scientific assessments of substances activity shaped the main conclusion of that contribute to the depletion of ozone the 2010 Assessment that the recovery in the stratosphere. The latest report of the stratospheric ozone layer to entitled 2010 WMO/UNEP Scientific its pre-1980 values is expected in Assessment of Ozone Depletion (http:// the middle of this century as a result www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/ of the successful implementation of ozone_2010/ozone_asst_report.html) the Montreal Protocol and its various was written and reviewed by some 300 amendments. scientists, many of them affiliated with Changes in stratos­ SPARC. An ensemble of ozone projec- p h e r i c o z o n e h a v e tions from the SPARC CCMVal strongly influenced Improved knowledge activity shaped the main conclu- the climate system of stratospheric ozone sion of the 2010 Assessment that i n t h e re ce n t p a st , chemistry and a better the recovery of the stratospheric b o t h g l o b a l l y a n d understanding of the regionally, especially role of meteorological ozone layer to its pre-1980 val- o v e r t h e A n t a rc t i c c o n d i t i o n s i n i t s ues is expected in the middle of re g i o n . I n a d d i t i o n variability provided a this century as a result of the to influencing climate, richer and more robust successful implementation of stratospheric ozone is set of chemistry-climate the Montreal Protocol and its itself influenced, in model simulations of various amendments. a multitude of ways, the potential evolution by changes in climate. of the stratospheric Only fully interactive ozone layer. An ensemble of ozone chemistry-climate models, in which changes projections from the SPARC CCMVal in atmospheric chemical composition, 58 6. Climate information for decision-makers WCRP

radiation and dynamics are tightly coupled, as a whole, as well as people living within can realistically simulate expected the Arctic region and elsewhere. interactions between changes in climate and changes in stratospheric ozone. Such Information on the future state of the Arctic models require ongoing investment in cryosphere is based on the interpretation their development to ensure that they of the climate predictions available from incorporate all mechanisms necessary the WCRP CMIP3 database. Fifteen key to simulate chemistry-climate coupling findings presented in the Executive and are suitable for addressing policy- Summary of the Assessment Report relevant questions within acceptable pave the way for adaptation measures to ranges of uncertainty. Assessing and climate change in this region, development validating these models also require of communication and outreach and significant long-term efforts. policy actions for mitigating some major contributing factors. CliC-affiliated To support climate prediction and scientists were principal contributors to projection for the Fifth Assessment the development, review and publication Report of the IPCC, the Atmospheric of the SWIPA report. Chemistry and Climate Initiative of WCRP/SPARC and IGBP developed an 6.4 Fifth Global Environmental Outlook atmospheric ozone database for use by those climate models, contributing to WCRP was a contributor to the UNEP the CMIP5 archive. The ozone database Fifth Global Environment Outlook (GEO- spans the period 1850 to 2100. Using this 5), which was unveiled at the Rio+20 database, stratospheric ozone changes, Conference in June 2012. The enormous greenhouse-gas emissions and natural complexity of the Earth system and its variability of the Earth’s atmosphere changes on multiple space- and timescales can be accounted for simultaneously in is highlighted in the chapter “Earth future climate projections. system challenges”. The conclusions of this chapter state that modern climate 6.3 Cryosphere assessment in the Arctic science is capable of addressing a significant part of the complex Earth In April 2008, the Arctic Council initiated system challenges and producing useful the project Climate Change and the predictions and projections of its future Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost state and climate. in the Arctic (SWIPA) as a follow up to the 2005 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Practically addressing such challenges, The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment however, requires understanding and Programme coordinated the SWIPA project proper representation of the underlying in cooperation with contributions from drivers, including human pressures, such WCRP/CliC, the International Arctic Science as population growth and economic activity. Committee and the International Arctic The proposed ”adaptive governance“ Social Sciences Association. This new approach should be underpinned by assessment brings together the latest sustained long-term monitoring and basic scientific knowlege about the changing and applied research of the Earth system state of each component contributing to to enable science-based and reliable the Arctic freshwater budget. It examines information for adaptation, mitigation how these changes will impact both the and risk management associated with Arctic climate and freshwater resources anticipated environmental changes.

59 WCRP 7. Capacity development

Empowering the future generation of climate scientists to serve the needs of decision-makers in climate-adaptation and risk-management planning.

60 7. Capacity development 7.1 Supporting climate risk management • Demonstrate the use and value of in the Great Horn of Africa regional models;

To assist the developing and Least • Provide advice on model limitations; Developed Countries of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region to undertake and • Improve capabilities across the GHA use climate projections appropriately in for using data records and model adaptation planning, WCRP, GCOS, WMO projections for adaptation planning. and the Nairobi-based Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Information providers and users interacted Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) through the application of climate information joined forces to implement a project to for agriculture/food security and water- demonstrate key elements of an effective resources management. The project climate-risk management strategy for greatly benefited from the participation the region, under the sponsorship of the of volunteers from the United Kingdom World Bank. Met Office (UKMO) and the United Nations Development Programme’s Africa Adaptation Reliable and detailed regional climate Programme. information is essential for the design of effective strategies for managing risks and 7.2 CORDEX Africa and Asia adapting to climate variability and change. This depends on the availability of high- CORDEX, in partnership with START and quality, long-term observations, the adequacy regional organizations, development banks of climate predictions and non-governmental from numerical models o r g a n i z a t i o n s , i s to depict future regional Reliable and detailed regional developing regional climate conditions, and a climate information is essential research capacity for, thorough understanding for the design of effective strat- among others, Asia, and appreciation of egies for managing risks and Africa and Latin America. the uncertainties and adapting to climate variability C O R D E X p r e s e n t s constraints associated and change. a n u n p r e c e d e n t e d with the use of both opportunity to advance data and regional and knowledge of regional global models. Finally, there must be a climate responses to global climate change two-way interaction or dialogue between and for these insights to benefit ongoing the information providers and the users climate-adaptation and risk-assessment in government and the public and private research, policy planning and development sectors. investments in these regions.

Three workshops were therefore organized, For example, a consortium of organizations, whose overall objectives were to: consisting of WCRP, the University of Cape Town’s Climate Systems Analysis • Help ensure that attention is given by Group, START, the International Centre participating countries to observation for Theoretical Physics, the SMHI and and data needs; the Climate and Development Knowledge 61 WCRP 7. Capacity development

Network, initiated an analysis and sectors. This training took place in training programme to provide an initial Buenos Aires, Argentina, in August assessment of CORDEX output for Africa 2010 and was co-sponsored by the IAI, that is regionally focused and prioritized the International Research Institute to the continent’s information needs. for Climate and Society, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, The training programme focuses on skill WCRP and UNESCO. development in working with climate model results, analysis of CORDEX datasets WCRP experts from WGSIP and the Varia­ and compilation and writing-up of the bility of the American Monsoon System results for broad dissemination to users. (VAMOS) Panel introduced global models Participants in the training programme and, among other topics, prob­abilistic are grouped into teams according to the approaches for seasonal predictions, subregions they represent and their regionalization and verification of seasonal respective areas of expertise. This climate predictions. In addition, several approach, initially focused on Africa, experts from different socio-economic is now being replicated for South Asia sectors shared their experience and and other regions worldwide. research results regarding challenges in the use of seasonal predictions 7.3 Training activities tailored to user needs in agriculture, health, water resources and disaster WCRP strives to create opportunities and risk management in Latin America forge alliances with the international (http://iaibr3.iai.int/twiki/bin/view/ scientific and technical unions, professional TIClimatePredictions2010) societies and other scientific and technical organizations towards achieving their Thirty-five early-career scientists from education, training and capacity development 20 countries were invited to attend a objectives. For example, three-day workshop together with the Abdus WCRP experts from WGSIP and i n co n n e c t i o n w i t h Salam International the Variability of the American the WCRP OSC (19-22 Centre for Theoretical October 2011). The Physics (Trieste, Italy) Monsoon System (VAMOS) Panel Workshop was organized a n d U K M O , W C R P introduced global models and, by the Early Career supported numerous among other topics, probabil- Scientist Assembly and workshops to train istic approaches for seasonal the Advanced Study scientists in developing predictions, regionalization and Program of the National downscaled climate- verification of seasonal climate Center for Atmospheric c h a n g e s c e n a r i o s Research (NCAR) and and identifying data predictions. was co-sponsored by r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r WCRP. The goal of the climate impacts, vulnerabil­­ities and Workshop was to examine a range of risk assessments. regional climate challenges in devel­ oping countries. Topics included regional The 38 participants from 13 countries climate modelling, climate impacts, who attended the Training Workshop water resources and air quality. on the Use of Seasonal Predictions for Applications in Latin America explored The Workshop fostered new ideas and the use of seasonal forecasts tailored to collaboration between early-career scientists users’ needs in dif­ferent socio-economic from around the world. Discussions 62 7. Capacity development WCRP

Some participants in the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery regional modelling workshop at ICPAC (Nairobi, Kenya), comparing model simulations with observations to prepare analysis of impacts of climate conditions on agriculture and water resources underscored the importance of establishing on which climate change is superimposed. partnerships with scientists located in Such end-to-end communication would also typically underrepresented countries help to ensure that research addresses to understand and account for the local the particular needs of the communities political, economic and cultural factors that are its focus.

63 WCRP 8. Partnerships are key to success

Strategic partnerships are essential for effectively advancing climate research and ensuring a legacy of sustained achievements.

64 8. Partnerships are key to success 8.1 Earth System Science Partnership The scope of research envisioned by ESSP required expertise of the network WCRP has a rich history of forging of researchers affiliated with the four strategic partnerships to accomplish its international global environmental change scientific and technical research programmes – goals/objectives. The Joint projects were established IGBP, the International Earth System Science Human Dimensions Partnership (http:// to investigate impacts of glo- Programme on Global www.essp.org/) was bal environmental changes on Environmental Change established to facilitate water, food security, health and (IHDP), WCRP and the study of the Earth’s carbon, as well as an integrated international biodiversity e n v i ro n m e n t a s a n regional study of the monsoonal programme DIVERSITAS. integrated system in system. A series of focused order to understand how projects and activities and why it is changing developed from this and to explore the implications of these partnership, with major focus on the role changes for global and regional sustainability. of carbon and water in the Earth system Joint projects were established to investigate and the impact of the environment on impacts of global environmental changes health and ecosystems. on water, food security, health and carbon, as well as an integrated regional study For example, the Global Carbon Project of the monsoonal system. (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/)

Carbon pools vulnerability (courtesy of ESSP Global Carbon Project)

65 WCRP 8. Partnerships are key to success

conducts comprehensive and global Planet Under Pressure (http://www. research on the carbon cycle and its planetunderpressure2012.net/) was a interactions with the human, biophysical conference conceived, organized and and climate system, facilitates the conducted by ESSP in London, United coordination of national and regional Kingdom, in March 2012. It brought carbon programmes and activities and together, for the first time, more than leads a number of global syntheses and 3 000 participants from the entire ESSP assessments to support international network, together with experts and conventions and national agendas. The stakeholders in the field of adaptation, focus of the Global Water Project is on development and risk management, understanding the major modifications to take stock of the current state of of the water cycle that are partly caused knowledge and the challenges ahead in by increasing emissions of human-driven development and application of science- greenhouse gases and, thus, are expected based information for decision-makers. to become larger during the 21st century. The major outcomes of the Conference A changing water cycle has impacts on were presented as recommendations at the carbon stocks and fluxes (e.g. soil and Sustainable Development Rio+20 Summit ecosystem respiration and production) and in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 2012, disturbance regimes (e.g. fire frequency and including: intensity). Global climate models predict, on centennial timescales, an increase • Going beyond GDP by taking into of global precipitation, water stress in account the value of natural capital some regions, interannual variability when measuring progress; and extreme events (e.g. droughts and floods). • A new framework for developing a set of goals for global sustainability Agriculture is a contributor to climate for all nations; change, being directly responsible for some 12-14% of greenhouse-gas emissions, • The launch of a new international and is affected by climate variability and research programme entitled change. Farmers around the world are Future Earth: Research for Global already facing an uncertain future as a Sustainability; result of rising temperatures, changing patterns of rainfall and the shifting • Establishing regular global sustainability distribution of pests and diseases. The analyses and assessments. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security project (CCAFS, http://ccafs.cgiar. 8.2 Global Framework for Climate Services org/) – another ESSP project – seeks to promote a food-secure world through the The Third World Climate Conference provision of science-based information (WCC-3) was convened from 31 August to to support sustainable agriculture and 4 September 2009 in Geneva, Switzerland. It enhance livelihoods. In its first year of resulted in the establishment of the Global operation, CCAFS provided scientific Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) evidence and tools to empower farmers, to strengthen production, availability, policy-makers, researchers and civil delivery and application of science- society to manage the agricultural and based climate prediction and services. food system successfully in a changing The GFCS is envisioned as having five climate. major components (pillars):

66 8. Partnerships are key to success WCRP

• Observations; are expected to coordinate and contribute • Research, modelling and prediction; to the implementation of its research, • Climate information system; modelling and prediction pillar. • Users’ interface; and • Capacity develop­ment as an all- Climate services are currently at the encompassing component. stage where NWP was about two decades ago. Many nations are T h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f The feasibility of building the in the early stages building the GFCS relies GFCS relies on the solid founda- of formulating plans on the solid foundation tion of the climate observations, for climate service of climate observations, research, modelling and predic- d e v e l o p m e n t . T o research, modelling address the complex and prediction that tion that has been built over the and different set of has been built over past few decades. r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r the past few decades. climate services, WCRP began a dialogue with users to help GFCS implementation will also require, identify the corresponding research however, additional targeted and user- priorities. A joint session of the WCRP focused climate research to satisfy the Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) and rapidly increasing needs for science- the WMO Technical Commission for based climate information by a growing Climatology (Antalya, Turkey, 18 February number of socio-economic sectors in all 2010) reviewed observational and regions of the world. WCRP-affiliated modelling research needs for improving scientists were actively engaged in seasonal-to-interannual predictions developing the GFCS concept and they and enhancing the use of climate

A schematic of the components of the Global Framework for Climate Services with capacity-building occurring within and between all other components

67 WCRP 8. Partnerships are key to success

information in impact, adaptation and plan for the research, modelling and vulnerability studies. To support the prediction pillar of GFCS. In order to ensure successful implementation of the GFCS, timely and effective delivery of climate participants agreed to collaborate information to meet user needs, WCRP closely on the following issues of direct will lead significant experimental and relevance to climate adaptation and theoretical work aimed at improving dataset risk management: and forecast quality, In order to ensure timely and extending the forecast • Strengthening and effective delivery of climate lead time and/or range m a i n s t r e a m i n g information to meet user needs, for subseasonal-to- research observa­ WCRP will lead significant exper- s e a s o n a l c l i m a t e tions to serve as predictions, improving prototypes for future imental and theoretical work climate models and climate observing aimed at improving dataset and developing techniques systems; forecast quality, extending the for observations and forecast lead time and/or range data assimilation. • Developing climate- for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction systems climate predictions, improving For the GFCS to be with lead times from successful, climate seasons to centuries; climate models and developing scientists must establish techniques for observations and strategic partnerships • Developing reliable data assimilation. w i t h p r a c t i t i o n e r s h i g h - re s o l u t i o n and users of climate products for climate adaptation and information. Leading professional risk management; organizations in food and agriculture, water-resource management, disaster risk • Promoting interdisciplinary research and human health must work together and to develop sector applications, tools with the WMO technical commissions to and tailored information; assess user requirements in their areas of expertise, availability of supporting • Facilitating the flow of user requirements research, data and information products to the research community and climate and the current or future ability of service producers through user feedback; climate science to satisfy the identified requirements. • Supporting Regional Climate Centres, National Climate Services and the The overall goal should be to transform Climate Outlook Forums mechanism, the existing set of independent research as well as consensus assessments, and development activities into a coherent such as the WMO Annual State of the integrated process of developing the Global Climate; and multitude of highly focused and useful products which will be in great demand • Improving the availability of highly for decision-makers and will have a skilled expertise to undertake climate market value for the private sector. research, operational prediction and communication, particularly in One major WCRP contribution to the GFCS developing countries. is the provision of science-based climate information at the regional level. Climate Based on the outcomes of this dialogue, anomalies tend to manifest themselves WCRP developed an implementation on the regional scale and most climate-

68 8. Partnerships are key to success WCRP

related decisions are taken at regional, wide range of sponsors, including WCRP. national and local level. To underpin The sponsors of, and participants in, regional climate service development, OceanObs’09 pledged to work together WCRP established a Working Group on towards an integrated ocean observing Regional Climate and decided to focus system. A limited-lifetime post-Conference its work on developing and providing working group was established to work in the most important regional climate broad consultation with the international information. Specific requirements community to recommend a framework for regional climate products will be for moving global sustained ocean determined in coordination with WMO observations forward in the next decade regional associations and other partners with a major focus on integrating feasible in areas of mutual interest. new biogeochemical, ecosystem and physical observations, while sustaining One element of this activity is the provision present observations and considering of climate information services to least- how best to take advantage of existing developed and developing countries to structures. support enhancement of their national climate-change adaptive capacity and introduce efficient climate risk-management strategies for a wide range of space- and timescales. The regional capacity- development activities described earlier will be an integral part of this effort supporting the implementation of the GFCS.

8.3 Oceans and societal needs

WCRP has been at the forefront of progress in satellite and in situ observing of the global oceans, development of ocean models and their coupling with the atmosphere and in developing useful scientific information for assessments of the state of the oceans. These efforts have been instrumental in building today’s ocean observing systems that are key to our ability to understanding Benefits of IFSOO: alignment of the requirement- how oceans behave in the current climate setting processes, observing elements and data and and how they may affect and be affected information systems will increase societal benefits of the ocean observing system. by future climate.

The OceanObs’09 Conference was convened This resulted in the Integrated Framework in September 2009, in Venice, Italy, to for Sustained Ocean Observations (IFSOO). build a common vision for the provision of IFSOO and its coordination processes routine and sustained global information on should be organized around essential the marine environment sufficient to meet ocean variables (EOVs) rather than by society’s needs. More than 600 participants a specific observing system, platform, from 36 nations came together under programme or region. The new EOVs will the sponsorship of UNESCO-IOC and a be carried out according to their readiness 69 WCRP 8. Partnerships are key to success

levels, allowing timely implementation of WCRP modelling groups are embracing the components that are already mature, while seamless approach and establishing joint encouraging innovation and coordinated activities in this context. For example, WGNE efforts to improve readiness of missing and WGCM plan to run climate models components and building overall capacity in weather-forecast mode (Transpose- to implement them. AMIP, http://www.transpose-amip.info/) to enable detailed evaluation of the It is envisioned that IFSOO will: (a) improve processes involved through a comparison communications and data-sharing across of the model outputs with observations the community, resulting in faster for particular meteorological events. In and better-coordinated information addition, understanding the development to support both research and societal of biases as they grow from a well- needs; (b) contribute to capacity-building initialized state can provide significant and enhancement of ocean observations insights for future improvement of the in developing countries; (c) increase model. confidence and support among sponsoring and funding entities; and (d) foster The centres which run both climate innovation and scientific discovery. and NWP models in a unified system frequently find that model errors are 8.4 Weather, climate and environmental common across timescales and that prediction – seamless approach analysis and evaluation of NWP simulations for particular meteorological events The scope and diversity of science- can yield significant insight into the b a s e d i n f o r m a t i o n cause of such errors. required for decision- The benefits to be accrued from Analysis in regions m a ke r s c a l l s fo r a such an approach derive from where extra observations “seamless” approach are deployed can be to research, modelling greater scientific progress in particularly useful as and prediction. This complex underlying processes the period over which c o n c e p t r e q u i r e s to overcome some existing the hindcasts are to be greater cooperation uncertainties in our knowledge, run has been chosen a n d c o o r d i n a t i o n in order to improve the quality to tie in with the WCRP between the traditional and availability of current serv- YOTC project, and the disciplines of weather, hindcast periods are c l i m a t e , w a t e r , ices and to enable new ones. aligned with one or chemistry, physics, more of the intense biology, etc. and a continuum in space observing periods for VOCALS (VAMOS and time that covers regions to globe Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study), and hours to decades and longer. The AMY and T-PARC (WMO World Weather benefits to be accrued from such an Research Programme (WWRP) THORPEX approach derive from greater scientific Pacific Asian Regional Campaign). progress in complex underlying processes to overcome some existing uncertainties Comparison with the CMIP5 experiments in our knowledge, in order to improve will enable investigation of whether the quality and availability of current model differences observed on longer services and to enable new ones. timescales can also be seen on short Such capabilities are instrumental for ones and potentially gain knowledge of successful implementation of GFCS, the underlying processes. This should Future Earth and IFSOO. allow a more thorough assessment of

70 8. Partnerships are key to success WCRP

Heatwave in North America (March 2012): occurrence probability of extreme warm temperature at 2 m as predicted nine days ahead by four different models compared with the observations (provided by Tetsuo Nakazawa, courtesy of THORPEX) confidence in the controlling processes long-lived source of predictability in operating within the CMIP5/AR5 models. the tropics but changes in SST in the Indian Ocean are also significant, Considerable progress has been made though the forecast horizon is likely to in improving the skill of medium-range be shorter than for ENSO. Predicting weather forecasts and in developing changes in equatorial Atlantic SSTs operational seasonal forecasting, has been less successful. especially during the past decade. Forecasting in the intermediate range Another long-lived atmospheric phenomena between the medium range (i.e. weeks is MJO, which exerts a strong influence on to a month) and seasons is difficult as tropical weather and climate, influencing the importance of the initial conditions extra-tropical weather through interactions wanes and the importance of slower with phenomena such as the North Atlantic boundary conditions such as SST increases Oscillation and other teleconnections. but has only a modest influence on the Considerable progress has been made weather and climate, especially away recently in improving the representation from the tropical regions. of MJO, leading to improved predictability on the intraseasonal timescale. Tropical SSTs play an important role, not only in controlling the weather/climate The improvement stems primarily from in the tropics but also in the extra- better convective parameterization as tropics, through various teleconnections. compared to increased model resolution. For example, ENSO is the best-known These studies and other WCRP-coordinated 71 WCRP 8. Partnerships are key to success

Physical mechanisms proposed for decadal climate predictability in the polar oceans are associated with the production of Denmark Strait overflow water (DSOW), which is a major source of North Atlantic deep-water formation. The North Atlantic inflows come through two entry points, the Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC) and the Iceland-Faroe Ridge (IFR), and are then modified by surface fluxes while they transit through the Nordic seas. The figure (from Karcher et al., 2011) shows a schematic circulation of the mid-depth Atlantic derived water (red solid line) and dense, deep water (black dashed line). The Arctic Ocean and Barents Sea act as ”switchyards” and add decadal-timescale delays to the system. These delays are variable in time and differ for surface and mid-depth waters. The latter results in transient anomalies of the water-density stratification that offer some predictive potential.

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research activities suggest that there process over the coming decades, as the is a potentially useful predictability on stratospheric ozone layer recovers, will subseasonal timescales, intermediate largely offset the effect of greenhouse- between weather and seasonal timescales gas-induced warming on summertime and that it is worthwhile developing a southern hemisphere high-latitude research strategy to explore and exploit regions. It is therefore likely that the this potential. observed summertime trends will weaken substantially or could even reverse over The main goal of the new joint WCRP the next half-century. This is a major and WWRP Subseasonal to Seasonal area of research for WCRP and its four Prediction project is to coordinate Core Projects in the coming decade. among operational centres the work for improving forecast skill and applications The strong coupling between the polar on the subseasonal timescale by bringing oceans, sea ice, troposphere and stratosphere together the relevant activities of WCRP, calls for an interdisciplinary approach WWRP and other potential partners. to research on polar climate systems. The subseasonal-to- M o re o v e r , n a t u r a l seasonal scale is of climate variability in the special interest for The main goal of the new polar regions is large societal and economic joint WCRP and the WWRP and manifests itself in d eve lo p m e n t a n d a Subseasonal to Seasonal “modes of variability”, wide range of decision- Prediction initiative is to coordi- whose physical nature making. nate among operational centres a n d c a u s a l i t y a r e not sufficiently well O v e r t h e l a s t f e w the work for improving fore- understood. This was d e ca d e s , t h e p o l a r cast skill and applications on the main motivation regions have exhibited the subseasonal timescale by for WCRP to review the s o m e o f t h e m o s t bringing together the relevant seasonal and multi- striking changes due to activities of WCRP, WWRP and decadal predictability – and also contributing other potential partners. of polar climate as to – climate variability an interdisciplinary a n d c h a n g e . T h e s e research topic. complex feedback mechanisms in the polar climate system amplify the effects A WCRP workshop in Bergen, Norway, of greenhouse-gas-induced warming in October 2010, brought together a (so-called polar amplification): the wide range of experts on polar climate Arctic is warming at a rate several times variability and predictability, including faster than the global mean. In contrast, all physical science disciplines, and the average Antarctic sea-ice extent covered a wide range of scientific is observed to be increasing slightly methodologies such as making and analysing for reasons that are not completely observations, developing theories, studying understood. processes and performing prognostic and diagnostic model simulations. The largest observed changes in the It identified polar climate research Antarctic climate have occurred during priorities, evaluated the current state the summer season and are primarily of knowledge for these priorities and attributed to changes in stratospheric identified the observations, model­ling ozone concentrations and extent. and research needs for improving polar Models predict that the reversal of this climate predictability. Based on these 73 WCRP 8. Partnerships are key to success

re c o m m e n d a t i o n s , The Future Earth initiative will the implications are WCRP, in partnership answer fundamental questions for the well-being of with the International about how and why the global h u m a n s a n d o t h e r Arctic Science Com­ species; what choices mittee, is developing environment is changing; what can be made to enhance a plan of activities are likely future changes; what r e s i l i e n c e , c r e a t e aimed at improving the implications are for wellbe- positive futures and predictive capabilities ing of humans and other spe- reduce harmful risks for the polar regions. cies; what choices can be made and vulnerabilities; and to enhance resilience, create how this knowledge can This initiative will support policy decisions r e s u l t i n a s e t o f positive futures, and reduce a n d s u s t a i n a b l e s p e c i f i c , t a r g e t e d harmful risks and vulnerabili- development. activities ranging from ties; and how this knowledge focused workshops to can support policy decisions Future Earth will deliver coordinated modelling and sustainable development. cutting-edge research and field experiments in an integrated and that will be closely collaborative manner, coordinated with a sister Polar Prediction including: Project of WWRP. The two initiatives comprise a major contribution to the • Monitoring and forecasting changes emerging WMO-sponsored Global Integrated in the Earth system, embracing Polar Prediction System. climate, carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services and human 8.5 Future Earth: Research for Global activities, building on current high- Sustainability quality research partnerships and activities; Building on the success of existing ICSU co-sponsored global environmental change • Filling knowledge gaps and providing programmes (DIVERSITAS, IHDP, IGBP, early warnings on the limits and WCRP and ESSP), Future Earth is a new tipping points of Earth’s life-carrying 10-year international research initiative capacity and how global environmental that will develop the knowledge for change may affect our ability to responding effectively to the risks and fulfill human needs for food, water, opportunities of global environmental health, energy, etc. change and for supporting transformation towards global sustainability in the coming • Connecting scientific knowledge decades. The initiative is scientifically effectively with policies and practices sponsored by an alliance of partners, through, for example, research into including ICSU, the International Social the potential impacts of policy, Science Council, the Belmont Forum of behavioural and technology options; funding agencies, the United Nations University, UNEP and UNESCO, with • Providing major contributions to WMO as observer. existing scientific assessments on global change, such as IPCC, The Future Earth initiative will answer the Intergovernmental Science- fundamental questions about how and Policy Platform on Biodiversity and why the global environment is changing; Ecosystem Services (IPBES), ICSU, what are likely future changes; what etc., and emerging ones;

74 8. Partnerships are key to success WCRP

• S u p p o r t i n g t h e Future Earth plans to develop to promote a holistic a s s e s s m e n t o f a globally distributed network a p p r o a c h t o w a r d s p r o g r e s s m a d e of knowledge nodes in order to sustainability. towards achieving goals for sustainable be responsive to the needs and Future Earth plans development; priorities of decision-makers to develop a globally at regional and national level, distributed network • Fostering innovative encourage broader participation of knowledge nodes in a p p r o a c h e s t o of users in the global environ- order to be responsive to integrate knowledge mental change research agenda the needs and priorities s y s t e m s ( d a t a , of decision-makers at o b s e r v a t i o n s , and activities and disseminate regional and national modelling, etc.); knowledge for sustainability level, encourage broader across the globe. participation of users in • S u p p o r t i n g t h e the global environmental development of new generations of change research agenda and activities and researchers and fostering enthusiasm disseminate knowledge for sustainability and skills to work across disciplines across the globe.

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New challenges and exciting research require international partnership and coordination that yield “actionable information” for decision-makers.

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The WCRP science strategy calls for for integrating the research activities “actionable” climate science to support coordinated by its four Core Projects decision-makers who are confronted with to provide the envisioned “actionable” the challenges and opportunities posed science to decision-makers on timescales by the environment, energy and economic ranging from seasons to a century and development associated with the impending from global to regional space-scales. By rapid growth in world population for the definition, a grand challenge should be rest of this century. To ensure adequacy highly specific and focused, identifying a of such information and its timely access specific barrier to progress in a critical and use, WCRP must engage in an area of climate science. active dialogue with these stakeholders and WCRP leadership has identified T h i s fo c u s e n a b le s decision-makers in the six scientific grand challenges ... the development of design, development and targeted research efforts dissemination phases of for integrating the research with the likelihood of its research activities. activities coordinated by its significant progress four Core Projects to provide the over five to seven years, S u c h a s y m b i o t i c envisioned “actionable” science even if its ultimate r e l a t i o n s h i p w i l l to decision-makers on times- success is uncertain. demonstrate the value cales ranging from seasons to It should thus enable of existing and newly the implementation of developed scientific a century and from global to effective and measurable knowledge to WCRP regional space-scales. performance metrics. co n st i t u e n c i e s a n d its affiliate network of scientists and By being transformative, a grand challenge projects in a timely and effective manner. should bring the best minds to the It will also provide a feedback loop to table, on a voluntary basis, building and researchers for improving existing products strengthening communities of innovators and services or developing new ones. that are collaborative, perhaps also extending beyond “in-house expertise”. It While research will remain the central tenet should capture the public’s imagination of WCRP, this new approach to identifying by teams of leading scientists working research priorities and implementing to solve pressing challenges and offer them will be a distinct departure from compelling solutions and storylines to the way WCRP and its affiliate projects engage the interest of the media and have carried out their activities in the the public. The WCRP scientific grand past. WCRP and its Core Projects are challenges are: thus organizing their subsidiary bodies and activities and forging alliances with • Provision of skillful future climate new organizations so as to accomplish information on regional scales these tasks successfully. (e.g. decadal predictability); WCRP leadership has identified six scientific grand challenges – based • Regional sea-level variability and on the outcome of the WCRP OSC – change; 77 WCRP 9. Future plan and priorities

• Cryosphere response to climate research funding agencies will ensure change (including ice sheets, water timely access to required expertise and resources, polar predictability, resources beyond WCRP’s existing and permafrost and carbon); immediate network of partners.

• Improved understanding of the The WCRP strategy and approach to interactions of clouds and radiation international research coordination in (including the role of aerosols and the future should also be responsive to precipitation and contributions to the needs of its primary sponsors and climate sensitivity); their major initiatives such as the Global Framework for Climate Services, Future • Past and future changes in water Earth and the Integrated Framework availability (with connections to for Sustained Ocean Observations. We water security and water-resources extend an open invitation to interested management); organizations and scientists that share this exciting vision of bringing together the • The science underpinning the best scientific expertise and knowledge prediction and attribution of extreme from around the world and developing a events. solution-based approach to addressing contemporary global, regional and local WCRP must also focus its efforts on environmental challenges in the service capacity development to ensure that future of global society. generations of affiliate researchers and research networks are equipped with the We believe that this is the best gift that required expertise and capabilities to we can offer to our generation, our address these grand challenges. More children and their children. effective partnership with its sister global environmental research programmes, new climate services providing organizations, Ghassem R. Asrar, Director development agencies and banks and Antonio J. Busalacchi, Chair

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Acknowledgements

WCRP is grateful for the generous and sustained financial support of its primary sponsors, ICSU, UNESCO-IOC and WMO, and the donor countries listed below. These contributions have enabled WCRP to attract the best minds from around the world to offer their time and knowledge to shape the research agenda and priorities for the Programme in the past, as they do in the present and will do in the future. We are also grateful for the contributions of many more organizations and countries in the form of hosting WCRP events to facilitate scientific discussions and debates that lead to the development of common research objectives and subsequent international cooperation to accomplish them.

Argentina Japan

Australia Netherlands

Austria Norway

Belgium Russian Federation

Canada Serbia

China South Africa

Czech Republic Spain

Denmark Sweden

Finland Switzerland

France Turkey

Germany United Kingdom

India United States of America

Israel

79 WCRP Acronyms

Acronyms

AABW Antarctic bottom water ACE Attribution of Climate-related Events AIMES Analysis Integration and Modelling of the Earth System (IGBP) AMIP Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP) AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model AMAP Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme AMMA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis AMOC Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMY Asian Monsoon Years AOGCM Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model APN Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research AR4 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report AR5 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report CACGP international Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution CAS Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (WMO) CCAFS Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security CCCma Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CCM chemistry-climate model CCMVal Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Project (SPARC) CCN cloud condensation nuclei CEOP Committee on Earth Observation Satellites CHFP Climate system Historical Forecast Project CINDY2011 Cooperative Indian Ocean Experiment on interseasonal Variability in the Year 2011 CliC Climate and Cryosphere Project (WCRP) CLIVAR Climate Variability and Predictability Project (WCRP) CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (WCRP) CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment DIVERSITAS An international programme of biodiversity science (ICSU/IUBS/ SCOPE/UNESCO) DYNAMO Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation ECS early career scientist ECV Essential Climate Variable ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation EOV essential ocean variables ERAinterim ECMWF interim Re-Analysis ESA European Space Agency ESC equivalent stratospheric chlorine ESGF Earth System Grid Federation ESM Earth System Model ESSP Earth System Science Partnership 80 Acronyms WCRP

FCDR Fundamental Climate Data Records FE Future Earth: Research for Global Sustainability (ICSU) GCOS Global Climate Observing System (WMO/UNESCO-IOC/ICSU) GDP Gross Domestic Product GEWEX Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (WCRP) GFCS Global Framework for Climate Services GHA Greater Horn of Africa GHG greenhouse gas GPCP Global Precipitation Climatology Project (WCRP) GSQs Grand Science Questions (WCRP/GEWEX) HE High Elevation (GEWEX) HyMeX Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment IAI Inter-American Institute for global change research IASC International Arctic Science Committee ICPAC Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre ICSU International Council for Science IFSOO Integrated Framework for Sustained Ocean Observations (UNESCO) IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (ICSU) IHDP International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO) IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (WMO/UNEP) IPO Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation IUBS International Union of Biological Sciences JMA Japan Meteorological Agency JPS Joint Planning Staff (WCRP) JSC Joint Scientific Committee (WCRP) LPB La Plata Basin MCGE Multi-Center Grand Ensembles MDB Murray Darling Basin MedCLIVAR Mediterranean Climate Variability and Predictability MERRA Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications MJO Madden-Julian Oscillation MMM Multi-model mean NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA) NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction (USA) NEESPI Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative NWP numerical weather prediction ODS ozone-depleting substance OSC Open Science Conference (WCRP) RAMA Research Moored Array RCD regional climate downscaling RCM Regional Climate Model RCP Representative Concentration Pathway (WCRP) REOS Repository for Evaluation of Ocean Simulations (WCRP/CLIVAR) RHP Regional Hydroclimate Projects (WCRP/GEWEX) SCAR Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (ICSU) 81 WCRP Acronyms

SCOPE Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SOLARIS Solar Influences for SPARC SPARC Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (WCRP) START Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training SST sea-surface temperature SWIPA Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic TAO Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (WCRP) THORPEX The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (WMO/WWRP) TRITON Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TAO project) TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (NASA) UCAR University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (USA) UKMO United Kingdom Met Office UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VAMOS Variability of the American Monsoon System (WCRP/CLIVAR) VOCALS VAMOS Ocean Cloud Atmosphere Land Study WAM West African Monsoon WCRP World Climate Research Programme (WMO/ICSU/IOC) WDAC WCRP Data Advisory Council WDCC World Data Centre for Climate WGCM Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WCRP) WGNE Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WCRP/CAS) WGSIP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WCRP) WMAC WCRP Modelling Advisory Council WMO World Meteorological Organization WWRP World Weather Research Programme (WMO) YOTC Year of Tropical Convection (WCRP/WWRP/THORPEX)

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