Global Climate Models

Johannes Feddema

Department of Geography The University of Kansas Outline

Global Climate Models and Climate Change • (Some) History of climate science • What is a Model? • Basics of the climate system • Climate model components • Climate boundary conditions • Human impacts on climate • Future Climate simulations • Skeptics/deniers and models

CLIMATE SCIENCE Conceptual framework for climate studies Global Climate Observing System – Early days

Thermoscope

Thermometer

Greeks (density and energy) 11th Century Avicenna 15?? -1603 Galileo (thermoscope) 1613 – Segredo/Santorio (thermometer)? 1714 Fahrenheit (Mercury) 1742 Celsius (Centigrade Scale) 1853 1st Meteorological Conference

Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermometer http://inventors.about.com/b/2004/11/16/the-history-behind-the-thermometer.htm www.nature.com http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/7592/Stevenson.jpg Milestones of the WMO

Source WMO Modeling Concepts

Conceptual or Descriptive models Description or understanding of general relationships

Physical models Simplified physical replicas of more complex systems e.g. scale models (globe, cars, buildings, rivers etc.) from EPA/RTP WIND TUNNEL Modeling Concepts

Conceptual or Descriptive models Description or understanding of general relationships

Physical models Simplified physical replicas of more complex systems e.g. scale models (cars, buildings, rivers etc.)

Mathematical models Deterministic – exact relationships Parameterized – generalized relationships e.g. correlation and regression Stochastic – contains a random component

Can incorporate Feedback systems. Parameterized model: Regression Modeling Concepts

This and next three are from A. HUBER, EPA/RTP What is Climate Science

What is Modern Climate Science • Understanding of the movement of energy into, through, and out of the Earth System • Based on physics through the processes of: • Electromagnetic radiation • Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat) • Convective transport of water vapor

Global Average Energy Balance

Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 107 342 342 – 107 = 235 235 Incoming Solar Radiation Outgoing Reflected Shortwave Long-wave Radiation Shortwave radiation Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30 Reflected Shortwave radiation Long-wave Radiation by Clouds from Clouds Aerosols Long-wave Radiation Long-wave Radiation 30 and Gases Atmospheric Window from Atmosphere Absorbed 40 165 77 Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere Latent Heat 67

Longwave Radiationz 350 Absorbed by Atmosphere Sensible Heat Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Reflected Atmosphere Shortwave radiation 24 78 by Surface 30 Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface 324 Evapo- 168 390 Thermal heating transpiration Absorbed

Shortwave radiation Conduction by Surface Surface Energy Balance: 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78 0 Global Climate Models Global Climate Models Global Climate Models Global Climate Models Global Climate Models

The NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Model Resolutions

R15 T42

T85 T170 Climate Model Resolution (300 km) (150 km)

(75) km (37 km) Climate Models NCAR Community Land Model

Biogeophysics Hydrology

Momentum Flux Precipitation Wind Speed Evaporation

D 0 ua Photosynthesis Latent Heat Flux Heat Latent

i Sensible Heat Flux re Interception Canopy Water R c Radiation a t d S Diffuse Solar

ia o Longwave Radiation t la io r n Transpiration

Reflected Solar Radiation Throughfall Absorbed Solar Stemflow Emitted Long- Emitted Radiation wave Radiation Sublimation Evaporation Infiltration Surface Runoff Melt Snow Soil Heat Flux Soil Water Heat Transfer Redistribution

Drainage

Snow Catchment Hydrology And River Flow Soil Water

Surface Runoff

Ground Water Lake Ocean Climate Models Community Land Model Surface Datasets

Up To 4 Patches Each patch has unique: • PFT composition glacier • PFT abundance 16.7% BDT temperate • leaf area 25% • height NET temperate • biomass lake vegetated 45% 16.7% 50% C3 grass 15 Plant Functional Types 15% Needleleaf evergreen tree wet- temperate urban land Crop boreal 8.3% 8.3% 15% Needleleaf deciduous tree Broadleaf evergreen tree Additional grid-cell data: tropical • land fraction temperate • soil color Broadleaf deciduous tree • soil texture (% sand, % clay, mineral composition) tropical temperate 2 cm boreal 3 cm Shrub 5 cm Additional data: 8 cm broadleaf evergreen, temperate 12 cm broadleaf deciduous, temperate • ½º river network 20 cm 34 cm broadleaf deciduous, boreal 55 cm Grass Soil Profile C , arctic • total depth - 343 cm 3 91 cm C • 10 layers 3 C4 • texture varies with depth Crop 114 cm An Urban Sub-model in the CLM

Atmospheric Forcing Tq, uatm atm atm

PSatm,, atm L atm

Roof HEL,,↑ , S↑ ,τ T Rroof Troof, s roof ,1 T roof ,10 H roof H waste Eroof

Tshdwl,10 Tshdwl,1 Tsunwl,1 Tsunwl,10

Canopy Air Space

Tsunwall, s Tshdwall, s H Tqu,, H sunwall s ss H shdwall TTmin<

Sunlit Shaded Wall Wall Himprvrd H H prvrd E traffic imprvrd Eprvrd R R imprvrd T T prvrd imprvrd ,1 Timprvrd, s Tprvrd, s prvrd ,1

Timprvrd ,10 T Impervious Pervious prvrd ,10 Canyon Floor W Timeline of Climate Model Development Climate Change Climate Change Science

What do we need to know? • Is the climate changing • Observations • Reference conditions • Climate change attribution • What is causing it to change • Climate projections • What does theory tell us about the future

Background: Human Climate Interactions

Natural and human impacts on the climate system

Solar Variation Agriculture Natural Vegetation? Atmospheric Composition De/Re-forestation Soil Degradation

Urban

Grazing WHAT ABOUT SOLAR ACTIVITY? Natural Forcing over the last decades

Sources: Globalwarmingart.com

Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Sunspot_Numbers_png Hoyt and Schatten (1998a) Solar Physics 179: 189-219. Hoyt, and Schatten (1998b) Solar Physics 181: 491-512. Stott et al. (2003) Journal of Climate 16: 4079-4093.

Long term Solar and Temperature trends

Sources: Globalwarmingart.com HISTORICAL FORCINGS Climate Forcing (Anthropogenic)

Source: World Resources 2000-2001 Time Magazine – 9 April 2001

So what are we worried about? Future? Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs? 2005 Present

0.7 ºC Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs 100 years 1958 Industrial revolution begins 1900 1900

Humans develop as species Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC

{ 5-8 ºC 100yrs

18,000 years

Ice Age

Domestication of plants and animals

Last Glacial Maximum Relationships between GHGs and Temperature

Climate and Greenhouse Gases during the last 650 Kyrs 1700 ppbv

375 ppmv EPICA Dome C Vostok Indermuehle et al (submitted) Pépin et al ( 2001) EPICA project members (2004) Petit et al (1999) Spahni et al (submitted) Delmotte et al (2004) 300 280 260 240

4 (ppmv)

220 2 2

200 CO 0 180 (°C) -2 ΔΤ -4 800

-6 700 -8 600

-10 (ppbv)

500 4 CH 400

700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Age (yr BP) What about the distant past?

Sources Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science 301: 182-204. Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science 304: 397–437. Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes 19: 3-5. Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. Press Rothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences 99 (7): 4167-4171. Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com

But it was a different world

Extinction of Dinosaurs

Permian Crash

Terrestrial plants WHAT EXACTLY DOES CO2 DO? Effects of CO2 on Energy Balance

Sources: Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Atmospheric_Transmission_png Gordley et al. (1994). J. .Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 52 (5). Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) Bull. Am. Meteor. Assoc. 78. Lashof (1989). Climatic Change 14 (3): 213-242. Rothman et al. (2004). J. .Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 96. Peixoto and Oort (1992). Physics of Climate. Springer

Global Average Energy Balance

Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 107 342 235 342 – 107 = 235 235 234 Incoming Solar Radiation Outgoing Reflected Shortwave Long-wave Radiation Atmosphere Energy Balance: Shortwave radiation 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30

Reflected 352 79 326 166 Shortwave radiation Long-wave Radiation by Clouds from Clouds Aerosols Long-wave Radiation Long-wave Radiation 30 and Gases Atmospheric Window from Atmosphere Absorbed 40 165 77 Shortwave radiation 39 166 by Atmosphere Latent Heat 67 1 Longwave Radiationz 350 Absorbed by Atmosphere 351 2 352 Sensible Heat Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Reflected Atmosphere Shortwave radiation 24 78 by Surface 30 79 Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface 324 326 Evapo- 168 390 Thermal heating transpiration Absorbed 391

Shortwave radiation 326 391 79 0 Conduction by Surface Surface Energy Balance: 168 –324= 390 + 24 + 78 + 0 USING MODELS TO GIVE US ANSWERS

Climate Simulation: How good are the models? Recent Climate Variable Trends: Observations

Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Short_Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png Brohan, et al. (2006) J. Geophaysical Research 111: D12106 Luo etal. (2002 J Clim 15: 2806-2820

Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations_png Irradiance:/www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant International sunspot number:/www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html Flare index: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/astronomy/readme.html 10.7cm radio flux: www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/sol_home.shtml Climate Simulation: Ocean Response

T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO d Scan Sources NSIDC NCAR Russia Greenland Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease from 70 to decreases Extent in 10 20% coverage years. • • Alaska Canada “Abrupt” transition Observed

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice Transitions Abrupt Russia

Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent Observations Simulated 5-year running mean Greenland Alaska Simulated Role of the IPCC Milestones of the WMO

1853 First International Meteorological Conference (standardization of instruments) 1873 WMO's predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) established 1882 Launch of the First International Polar Year 1882-1883 1932 Launch of the second International Polar Year 1932-1933 1951 WMO established as a specialized agency of the United Nations 1957 Launch of International Geophysical Year 1957-1958 Global Ozone Observing System set up 1963 World Weather Watch launched 1976 WMO conducts first international assessment of the state of global ozone 1979 First World Climate Conference held which led to the establishment of the World Climate Programme 1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer 1988 WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established 1989 Global Atmosphere Watch established to monitor atmospheric composition WMO and UNEP initiate the process leading to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1990 Second World Climate Conference initiates the Global Climate Observing System First Assessment Report of the IPCC 1991 WMO/UNEP begin process which led to negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (the 'Earth Summit') leads to Agenda 21 1995 Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1997 El Nino/Southern Oscillation warm episode and severe weather events across the world 1998 Kyoto Conference establishes timetable for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, South Africa) 2007 Bali Conference Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC awarded Nobel Prize Source WMO Role of the IPCC- Coordination

TSU = Technical Support Unit IPCC -- Coordinating research efforts

IPCC creates infrastructure to coordinate experiments between groups • Standard emissions scenarios • Standard protocols Climate projections: What is to come?

Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007

Climate projections: Global Temperature

Anomalies relative to 1980-99

IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32 Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data) Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade) IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts IPCC – Publishing and conveying knowledge Figure 11.12 Figure 10.19 Figure 10.18

QUESTIONS? Observed Climate models can be used to provide information on changes in extreme events such as heat waves

Heat wave severity defined Model as the mean annual 3-day warmest nighttime minima event Model compares favorably with present-day heat wave severity Future In a future warmer climate, heat waves become more severe in southern and western North America, and in the western European and Mediterranean region From Meehl and Tebaldi 2005 Climate Change Attribution

Regional sources of emissions Greenhouse gas sources

PCM Uncertainty/Historical Equilibrium Land Cover Simulations PCM Uncertainty/Historical Equilibrium Land Cover Simulations

PRESENT DAY UNCERTAINTY • Arctic – albedo • Amazon – latent heat flux • Australia – albedo

HISTORICAL CHANGE Climate difference from land cover classification is as large as the climate difference from land cover change • Primarily shift to agriculture PCM Present Day Comparison Image - LSM

Seasonal Change in Albedo

Strong winter/spring albedo change in the Northern Hemisphere translates to spring/summer net radiation change due to solar seasonality

Seasonal Change in Net Radiation PCM Historical Comparison

Annual Change in temperature

Shading = standard t test 0.95 confidence level Contour = bootstrap 0.95 confidence level

DJF

Bootstrap confidence test shows strong summer hemisphere signal in sub-tropics

Many of the areas are over land cover change locations JJA PCM Historical Comparison

Change in minimum daily temperature

Diurnal temperature range is shrinking as is observed in many locations

IPCC 2001 The scientific Basis: figure 2.2

Change in maximum daily temperature

Future Simulations for Kansas Kansas Climate over the last century

Sedan (KS): Mean Temperature Time Series Temperature trends for Manhattan KS 16 14.5

14 15.5 13.5 15 13 14.5 12.5

14 12

Degrees C Degrees 13.5 11.5

Annual 11 13 MA 5 years Annual 9 years 29 years 10.5 5 year MA 12.5 Climatology 10 9 year MA Mean Annual Temperature(C) 12 29 year MA 9.5 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year

Sedan (KS): Mean Precipitation Time Series Precipitation trends for Manhattan KS 1500 Annual 1700 Annual MA 5 years 1400 1600 9 years 5 year MA

29 years n 1500 1300 Climatology 9 year MA 1400 1200 29 year MA 1300

1100 1200

1000 1100

1000(mm)

O mmdepth 900 2 900 H 800 800

700 700

600 Precipitatio Annual Total 600 500 500 400 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year Kansas Climate over the last century Sedan (KS): Mean Maximum Temp Time Series 24

23.5 Annual MA 5 years 23 9 years 29 years 22.5 Climatology 22 21.5 21 Degrees C Degrees Sedan (KS): Mean Temperature Time Series 20.5 16 20 15.5 19.5 15 19 14.5 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 14

Degrees C 13.5

Annual 13 MA 5 years 9 years 12.5 29 years Climatology Sedan (KS): Mean Minimum Temp Time Series 10 12 Annual 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 9.5 MA 5 y ear s 9 years Year 9 29 years Climatology 8.5 8 7.5 7 Degrees C Degrees 6.5 6 5.5 5 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Global Climate over the last century

De Bilt (Neth): Mean Temperature Time Series 11

10.5

9.5

Degrees C Degrees 8.5

Annual 8 MA 5 years 9 years 7.5 29 years Climatology 7 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year

De Bilt (Neth): Mean Precipitation Time Series 1300

1200

1100 Annual MA 5 y ear s 1000 9 years 29 years Climatology 900 O mmdepth

2 800 H 700

600

500 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year